Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 16:35

Same headline, 30 years in a row.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 15:10

Trump: China deal is great

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 14:34

JUST IN – U.S. Inflation & Labor Data Mixed

• Core PPI (MoM): +0.1% vs. +0.3% est. — softer than expected
• Headline PPI (MoM): +0.1% vs. +0.2% est. — slight miss
• Core PPI (YoY): +3.0% vs. +3.1% est.
• Jobless Claims: 248K vs. 242K est. — higher than expected

Takeaway:
Inflation cooled slightly, labor market softened.
Rate cut odds just got a small push.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 13:26

US Dollar Index drops below 98

The DXY just fell under 98 for the first time since April 21.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 11:16

U.S. Embassy in Israel imposes new travel restrictions

The U.S. government has restricted the movement of its employees and their families within Israel due to heightened security concerns.

The situation is clearly escalating.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 09:33

Reminder:

Key U.S. PPI data drops today at 8:30 AM ET.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 07:33

China puts a 6-month limit and its ease of rare earth export restrictions

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 20:24

MIDDLE EAST — TENSIONS RISE

U.S. military dependents in Bahrain and Kuwait are authorized for temporary departure amid escalating regional tensions.

The U.S. Embassy in Iraq is also preparing for an ordered evacuation due to increased security risks.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 20:06

Truly incredible:

Tesla stock ($TSLA) is up 22% since its June 5th low, following the public feud between Trump and Elon Musk.

Since then, Musk apologized, and Trump called it “very nice.”

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 19:02

Goldman Sachs: Tariffs Likely to Fuel Inflation

While the immediate impact on May CPI (due Wednesday) may be modest — just a 0.05pp boost in core to 0.25% MoM — Goldman expects bigger effects by year-end.

Core inflation could rise to 3.5% by December, up from 2.8% in April. The bank says the main driver will be rising goods prices, not services, despite easing pressure in labor, housing, and autos.

Watch closely — the inflation path may get bumpier.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 16:57

Trump on Musk’s apology:
“That was very nice of him.”

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 15:56

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Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 15:09

President Trump adds the below note to his China trade “deal” announcement.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 14:08

Trump: China Deal Is Done — Awaiting Xi’s Final Approval

Trump says the U.S.-China trade deal is complete, pending final sign-off:

“Our deal with China done. Subject to Xi’s approval, we are getting a 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%.”

Trade Watcher

10 Jun 2025 17:46

Iran Becoming ‘Much More Aggressive’ in Nuclear Talks — Trump

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 16:00

US officials told Israel is fully ready for Iran operation, per CBS

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 14:59

Traders now see 80% chance of September Fed rate cut

A second cut could come as early as October — earlier than previous expectations of December.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 13:48

JPMorgan: Iran attack could send oil to $120, push US inflation to 5%

A potential military strike on Iran may drive oil prices up to $120 per barrel, according to JPMorgan.

Such a surge could reignite inflation in the U.S., pushing CPI back to 5%.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 11:53

Boeing shares drop 7.2% premarket after Air India Dreamliner crash

Boeing stock tumbled 7.2% in premarket trading following reports that an Air India Dreamliner en route to London has crashed.

Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 10:33

🔥LAST DAY TO JOIN — ACCESS CLOSES FOR A MONTH TONIGHT

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• Deep dives and market notes
• Weekly outlooks and summaries
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Trade Watcher

12 Jun 2025 09:03

The US and Mexico are closing in on a deal that will remove 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain volume, per Bloomberg.

Talks are being led by Commerce Secretary Lutnick and the cap would be higher than a similar deal seen in Trump's 1st term.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 20:44

U.S. Defense Update

Defense Secretary Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of U.S. military dependents from multiple locations across the Middle East.

This follows growing security concerns and rising tensions in the region.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 20:14

White House:

The President appreciates Elon Musk’s apology.

There are no efforts underway to reconsider government contracts with Musk’s companies.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 19:33

US 10-Year Treasury Auction Results
• Auction yield: 4.421%
• When-issued (WI) yield: 4.428%
• Stop-through: −0.7 bps (higher demand than expected)

Total issuance: $39B
30.58% of bids filled at max yield

Buyer breakdown:
• Primary dealers: 8.96%
• Direct bidders: 20.48%
• Indirect bidders (incl. central banks): 70.56%

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 17:12

Lutnick: “We are not going to give China our best chips”

Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick firmly stated the U.S. won’t provide China with its most advanced semiconductors, signaling a hard stance in ongoing tech tensions.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 16:11

President Trump calls for a 100 basis point rate cut after CPI inflation data this morning.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 15:40

ARK’s Cathie Wood: SpaceX could hit $2.5T by 2030

Together with Tesla, ARK sees over $10T in value across Elon Musk’s companies by the end of the decade.

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 14:32

US CPI data just dropped

– Headline CPI YoY: +2.4% (vs forecast +2.5%, previous +3.4%)
– Core CPI YoY: +2.8% (vs forecast +2.9%, previous +3.6%)

Trade Watcher

11 Jun 2025 13:28

Trump on Whether He Could Reconcile with Musk:

“I think I could.”

Trade Watcher

10 Jun 2025 17:15

Delegations from the United States and China have finalized their trade talks in London