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JUST IN: Euro climbs to $1.1644 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since October 2021.
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Investors are piling into tech stocks
U.S. tech saw $4.4B in inflows last week — the highest since June 2024 and 4x more than all other sectors combined.
The 4-week average stands at $1.5B per week.
Institutional buying hit $3B — a record since 2008, according to BofA. As a share of total market cap, that ranks in the top 2% historically.
Remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell:
• We do not consider the U.S. national debt when making interest rate decisions.
• On the recent weakness of the dollar: The market is “digesting” extraordinarily complex economic and geopolitical conditions.
Italian Prime Minister:
A 10% tariff from the U.S. will not have a significant impact on our companies.
Chances of rate cuts by September soar to 85%
Market expectations for a Fed rate cut by September have surged to 85%, reflecting growing confidence in a policy shift amid cooling inflation signals.
Nvidia board member makes record $24M stock sale
A. Brooke Seawell, on Nvidia’s board since 1997, sold $24 million worth of $NVDA shares — his largest sale ever.
The transaction is over 4x bigger than any of his previous sales.
JUST IN: Trump on Iran:
“The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is going well.
I think we will have some sort of relationship with Iran.
Iran will not have a nuclear bomb.”
In response to a question about Iran’s uranium enrichment plans, Trump said:
“We will not allow it — even by military means.”
JUST IN: Trump claims the Iranian nuclear program has been set back by decades. He states that a US strike on Iran "ended the war."
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Polymarket currently gives just 30% odds that OpenAI's ChatGPT hits 1B monthly active users by Dec 31, 2025.
As of March, it had ~600M MAUs (per Google court filing). To reach 1B, it’d need 8.8% MoM growth—faster than TikTok managed at scale.
For reference, ChatGPT grew ~9% MoM from 100M to 400M WAUs in 2023–24.
China's rare earth magnet exports plunge 74% YoY
In May, China’s rare earth magnet exports fell 74% YoY — the largest monthly drop on record. Total exports hit 1.2M kg, the lowest since Feb 2020.
Exports to the U.S. collapsed 93% to ~46,000 kg after a 59% drop in April.
China produces ~69% of the world’s rare earth minerals and processes ~90%, making its exports a central lever in the tariff war.
Polymarket nears $200M raise at $1B+ valuation
Prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly close to raising $200M, pushing its valuation beyond the $1B mark.
JUST IN: The EU cautions that even a minimal Trump tariff could provoke retaliation.
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JUST IN: Blast detected in Damascus, Syria - per Reuters correspondents.
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JUST IN: Fed's Powell states that rate cuts are on hold due to anticipated significant inflation growth this year.
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U.S. Stocks on track for an annual inflow of $360 Billion, the 3rd largest in history
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Remember IBM?
Over the past 5 years, it has outperformed:
• Microsoft
• Apple
• Google
JUST IN: Powell: We will eventually start cutting rates again.
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JUST IN: Trump criticizes Powell, calling him "a very stupid person" and "a very average mentally person."
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JUST IN: The NASDAQ 100 has reached an all-time high.
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JUST IN: The US Treasury reported a $316 billion budget deficit in May, marking the third-largest in history. Government spending increased by 3% YoY, reaching $687 billion. Despite a 270% surge in tariff revenue to $23 billion, it did little to offset the deficit. The budget gap for the first 8 months of Fiscal Year 2025 is now $1.37 trillion, the third-largest ever. The 12-month federal deficit is at $2.0 trillion, or 6.7% of GDP, up from 6.1% last year, indicating a worsening deficit crisis.
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U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to surpass post-WWII record by 2029
America’s national debt is projected to exceed 106% of GDP within the next four years — topping the previous high set after World War II.
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session stops:
orders like to absorb price below or above session highs/lows.
in particular during the opening phase of New York session.
stops placed above or below London session trigger predictable orders to fill from the passive limit side.
example ↑
The S&P 500 is up 2% since this headline.
Oil is down 12%.
JUST IN: Powell predicts significant tariff inflation effects from June to August. If not observed, it could lead to earlier cuts.
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Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.
JUST IN: Fed's Powell suggests earlier rate cuts if inflation is weaker than anticipated.
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JUST IN: Fed's Hammack indicates more progress needed for 2% inflation target, notes policy is near neutral, expects Fed to hold steady for now, and sees no urgent need to cut interest rates.
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