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In case you forgot:
President Trump's 90-day tariff pause now only has 13 days remaining.
This means without any new trade deals, on July 9th, tariff rates will rise as follows:
1. Country-specific "reciprocal tariffs" return
2. Tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports
3. 30% tariffs on Chinese imports remain in effect
4. Global 10% baseline tariffs remains in effect
The S&P 500 is now ~1,200 points higher than it was on April 9th, when the 90-day pause was announced.
The trade war will soon take the spotlight again.
U.S. debt could hit 218% of GDP in 30 years
If the new spending bill (OBBBA) becomes permanent and rates stay high, U.S. debt could soar by $55 trillion by 2054 — pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 218%, per CRFB.
Even under current terms, the bill may add $15 trillion and raise the ratio to 172%.
Bottom line: the U.S. is on a dangerously unsustainable fiscal path.
JUST IN: Tesla HR executive Jenna Ferrua reportedly leaves the company.
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Semiconductor stocks hit record size in S&P 500
Chip stocks now make up 12.1% of the S&P 500 — the highest ever, and double what it was three years ago.
The $SOX index is up ~111% in that time, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 61% gain.
Nvidia alone accounts for 56% of the sector’s market cap and just hit a $3.8T valuation, reclaiming its spot as the world’s most valuable company.
Semiconductors are on a historic run.
Warren Buffett Indicator jumps to 200%, the 2nd most expensive level in history
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Trump is considering naming Jerome Powell’s successor as Fed Chair as early as this summer, months ahead of Powell’s May 2026 term end, per WSJ.
Shortlist includes Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, David Malpass, and Chris Waller. - WSJ
JUST IN: Euro climbs to $1.1644 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since October 2021.
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Investors are piling into tech stocks
U.S. tech saw $4.4B in inflows last week — the highest since June 2024 and 4x more than all other sectors combined.
The 4-week average stands at $1.5B per week.
Institutional buying hit $3B — a record since 2008, according to BofA. As a share of total market cap, that ranks in the top 2% historically.
Remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell:
• We do not consider the U.S. national debt when making interest rate decisions.
• On the recent weakness of the dollar: The market is “digesting” extraordinarily complex economic and geopolitical conditions.
Italian Prime Minister:
A 10% tariff from the U.S. will not have a significant impact on our companies.
Chances of rate cuts by September soar to 85%
Market expectations for a Fed rate cut by September have surged to 85%, reflecting growing confidence in a policy shift amid cooling inflation signals.
Nvidia board member makes record $24M stock sale
A. Brooke Seawell, on Nvidia’s board since 1997, sold $24 million worth of $NVDA shares — his largest sale ever.
The transaction is over 4x bigger than any of his previous sales.
JUST IN: Trump on Iran:
“The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is going well.
I think we will have some sort of relationship with Iran.
Iran will not have a nuclear bomb.”
In response to a question about Iran’s uranium enrichment plans, Trump said:
“We will not allow it — even by military means.”
JUST IN: The White House announces Trump can set reciprocal tariff rates if negotiations collapse.
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$SPY to hit 6,700 by the end of 2025, according to BMO
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World debt has now officially crossed $300 trillion
And still continues to climb aggressively
DEEPSEEK’s next-gen AI model delayed amid Nvidia chip crunch
China-based DEEPSEEK is facing major delays in launching its R2 model due to worsening $NVDA chip shortages.
U.S. export bans on H20 GPUs have severely limited supply, according to cloud providers, slowing deployment and impacting performance.
U.S. Debt Interest Expense is projected to be 25% of total tax revenue within the next decade
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The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to its lowest level since March 2022.
The dollar weakened following a Wall Street Journal report that Donald Trump is considering an early announcement of his pick for Fed Chair.
U.S. current account deficit hits record $450B in Q1
The U.S. current account deficit jumped 44% in Q1 2025 to $450.2B — the largest on record.
That’s 6% of GDP, the highest since 2006. On an annualized basis, the gap hits $1.8 trillion.
The surge came as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of new tariffs, pushing the trade imbalance to historic levels.
Remember IBM?
Over the past 5 years, it has outperformed:
• Microsoft
• Apple
• Google
JUST IN: Powell: We will eventually start cutting rates again.
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JUST IN: Trump criticizes Powell, calling him "a very stupid person" and "a very average mentally person."
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JUST IN: The NASDAQ 100 has reached an all-time high.
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JUST IN: The US Treasury reported a $316 billion budget deficit in May, marking the third-largest in history. Government spending increased by 3% YoY, reaching $687 billion. Despite a 270% surge in tariff revenue to $23 billion, it did little to offset the deficit. The budget gap for the first 8 months of Fiscal Year 2025 is now $1.37 trillion, the third-largest ever. The 12-month federal deficit is at $2.0 trillion, or 6.7% of GDP, up from 6.1% last year, indicating a worsening deficit crisis.
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U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to surpass post-WWII record by 2029
America’s national debt is projected to exceed 106% of GDP within the next four years — topping the previous high set after World War II.
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