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Samurai Bonds Are Back in Demand
U.S. companies are increasingly issuing yen-denominated Samurai bonds to tap into Japan’s cheaper capital.
Why?
– High U.S. rates make domestic borrowing expensive
– Tight JPY-USD cross-currency basis lowers the cost of converting yen to dollars
– Samurai bonds let firms borrow more cheaply and diversify investors
With favorable funding conditions in Japan, expect more U.S. corporates to follow this route.
UK Bond Yields Surge as Fiscal Concerns Hammer the Pound
The British pound dropped over 1 cent in an hour as markets react to a sharp selloff in UK bonds.
• 30-year gilt yields spiked +21 bps to 5.44%
• 10-year yields rose +20 bps, 2-year +9.6 bps
Rumors swirl around Chancellor Rachel Reeves after her emotional U-turn on welfare cuts. Investors are rattled by signs the UK government may be pulling back from fiscal discipline.
Americans Are Quitting Jobs at the Slowest Pace Since 2020
The number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs dropped by 151,000 in May, hitting the lowest level since November 2020.
Job leavers now make up just 9.8% of total employment, down 4 percentage points over the last 6 months — a rare decline outside of recessions.
President Trump claims the US deficit has been reduced by half in anticipation of his significant legislative proposal.
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$TSLA delivery numbers are out.
• 384K v. 389K estimate
Stock is up 5% pre-market
Markets move on new info — not noise.
– Known news = priced in = no reaction
– Real moves happen when expectations shift
June example:
– Rangebound until 2 catalysts:
1. Israel’s first strike → risk priced in
2. Fed’s Bowman turned dovish → USD dropped
Key takeaway:
Wait for true catalysts. Focus on what changes the outlook, not what’s already known.
Nvidia CEO sells another $35M in shares
Insider selling continues: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just offloaded $35.2 million worth of $NVDA stock.
Warren Buffett’s take: How to spot a great, good, and gruesome business
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The S&P 500 has been positive in July every year for the last decade
Average return of +3.35%
Second best month of the year.
Gold demand shifts East as Western appetite fades
Retail gold demand is falling in North America and Western Europe — now down three years in a row.
Meanwhile, Asia, South America, and Africa are steadily buying more. In Q1 2025, this created the widest East-West gold demand gap on record, driven by a U.S. sell-off.
– Asia-Pacific demand rose +3%
– China: +12%
– South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia: +30%
– U.S. Mint gold coin sales: –70% YoY in May
Gold flows are clearly heading East.
The Telegraph: Fed independence is already dead — Trump will get his way
The Fed is acting like a “shadow government” with little democratic oversight, the article argues.
While Trump’s approach may be questionable, he’s right about one thing: central banks shouldn’t hold unchecked power.
The Fed has effectively lost its independence and seems ready to bend to Trump’s agenda.
JUST IN: Tesla shares fell to a three-week low, declining by 7.1%.
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JUST IN: U.S. Treasury Secretary:
A vote on the tax bill (Big Beautiful Bill) is expected today.
Trump:
I hope the “BBB” gets passed today.
JUST IN: JPMorgan reports that Tesla's demand likely remained weak in the second quarter, projecting 360,000 deliveries, which is a 19% decrease year-over-year and below the 392,000 consensus. The firm identifies a significant risk to Tesla's full-year delivery targets as the second half would need an unusually strong recovery. Challenges include affordability concerns and possible reductions in EV credits. JPMorgan reduced its 2025 earnings per share forecast to $1.75 from $2.07 and its 2026 projection to $2.40 from $2.85, anticipating further declines in estimates.
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Linda Raschke’s 12 Timeless Trading Rules (Condensed)
Market Wizard Linda Raschke distilled decades of experience into these core principles:
1. Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell first rally after a new low.
2. Morning reversals are stronger than afternoon ones.
3. Big gaps often lead to trends.
4. Watch how price acts around previous day’s high/low — key pivot zones.
5. First and last trading hours reveal the day’s strength.
6. High volume into close = likely continuation next day.
7. First hour’s range sets the tone — trade early if trend is clear.
8. Four timeless principles:
• Trends are more likely to continue than reverse
• Momentum leads price
• Trends end with climaxes
• Markets alternate between range and breakout
9. Nobody knows the future — trade what is, not what might be.
Reactive > Predictive.
JUST IN: The possibility of a Fed rate cut in July is considered unlikely, but recent weak payroll data has increased speculation.
• Allspring’s Michael Bird mentions a July rate cut is improbable without significant negative data.
• Futures markets currently estimate a 25% chance of a July cut after weak ADP payroll data.
This shift in expectations could lead to increased market volatility as investors react to changing forecasts for Fed policy.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: President Trump announced he has finalized a trade agreement with Vietnam.
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Microsoft to Cut Up to 9,000 Jobs
In a new wave of layoffs, Microsoft plans to let go as many as 9,000 employees, according to The Seattle Times.
JUST IN: UK Prime Minister Starmer is not supporting Chancellor Reeves in the wake of the welfare controversy, reports the Financial Times.
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The Senate’s version of Donald Trump’s tax cut bill will cost the bottom 20% of taxpayers an average of $560 a year while giving an average boost of $6,055 to those at the top end, per Bloomberg.
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Mastering Internal Range Liquidity and External Range Liquidity
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The Polymarket for Musk forming his own party by end of year are soaring.
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U.S. money supply hits record high — again
In May, the U.S. M2 money supply rose 4.5% YoY to a new all-time high of $21.94 trillion — marking 19 straight months of growth.
Inflation-adjusted M2 is also up 2.1% — the biggest jump since early 2022.
Since 2020, the money supply has grown by nearly $7 trillion.
The result? The U.S. dollar keeps losing long-term buying power.
Global stock rally hits 10-year high
About 55% of markets in the MSCI ACWI just hit 52-week highs — the most in a decade. No market hit a new low.
Nearly 90% are trading above key moving averages, showing strong momentum.
Risk appetite is global right now.
Big Tech is driving the market rally
Since the April 7 market bottom, the S&P 500 is up ~20% — but it’s large-cap tech that’s doing the heavy lifting:
– Microsoft and Meta: +40%
– Netflix: +50%
– Nvidia: +60%
This surge shows the current rally is heavily concentrated in a few major tech names.
JUST IN: Powell stated that 2025 is evidently a significant year with many events occurring.
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JUST IN: President Trump on electric cars just now:
"Who wants an electric car? I don't want an electric car. There's one problem with it, it explodes."
Trump bought a Tesla at the White House less than 3 months ago.
JUST IN: The Euro has reached its highest value against the US Dollar since 2021.
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Speculators sharply raise Brent crude short bets
Short positions on Brent crude jumped by the most in a year, signaling growing bearish sentiment in the oil market.