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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
US labor market demographics are shifting fast
Over the past 3 months, the number of foreign-born workers in the US fell by 3.4% — the sharpest drop since 2007 (excluding the 2020 pandemic).
That’s a decline of 1.1 million people, bringing the total to 32.6 million — the lowest since December 2024. This follows a record 5.0% surge (up 1.6 million) in the previous 3 months.
Overall, since 2020, the foreign-born labor force has grown by 6.3 million, or 24%.
Meanwhile, the number of native-born workers rose by 1.8 million (+1.3%) in the past 3 months, hitting a record 138.8 million.
Tesla drops 7% premarket on Musk's political move
Tesla shares are down 7% in premarket trading as investors react to Elon Musk's announcement of forming a new political party.
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Key Events This Week
— Wednesday, July 9
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD)
— Thursday, July 10
• Unemployment Claims (USD)
• FOMC Member Waller Speaks (USD)
— Friday, July 11
• GDP m/m (GBP)
Successful trading is like getting pregnant — everyone congratulates you when you manage it but no one asks how many times you got f*cked first.
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you can’t build long-term consistency if your self-worth collapses after one red day
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most of your overtrading doesn't come from market conditions
it comes from your lack of structure outside the charts
no routine, no system, no separation of planning and execution
so you chase setups, to fill the void you created yourself
Top Trading Movies to Watch
1. The Big Short – How a few traders predicted and profited from the 2008 crash.
2. Wall Street – The original tale of greed and insider trading.
3. Money Never Sleeps – Gordon Gekko’s return in the sequel.
4. Trading Places – Comedy meets commodities.
5. Margin Call – A firm’s 24-hour scramble before the 2008 collapse.
6. Floored – Real-life highs and lows of floor traders.
7. Boiler Room – Inside a shady pump-and-dump brokerage.
8. Wolf of Wall Street – Wild ride of Jordan Belfort and penny stocks.
9. Rogue Trader – The man who sank Barings Bank.
10. Too Big to Fail – Treasury’s view of the 2008 meltdown.
11. Barbarians at the Gate – Legendary RJR Nabisco buyout.
12. Wizard of Lies – Madoff’s $65B Ponzi scheme unravelled.
US stock market sentiment is heating up — but not overheated yet
• AAII bullish sentiment just jumped from 35.1% to 45% — a sign of growing optimism as the S&P 500 hits new highs.
• However, it's not yet in "frothy" territory, which starts above 50%. Last July, a 52.7% reading preceded a 9% market drop.
• For now, positioning doesn’t look overcrowded — but if bullish sentiment pushes past 52%, caution is warranted.
• Key question: can the S&P 500 hit 6500 or even 7000 before sentiment overheats?
JUST IN: EU diplomats report a lack of progress in US trade negotiations, with talks set to continue into the weekend.
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Wyckoff Method: Core Principles in Brief
The Wyckoff Method helps identify big players’ actions through price and volume analysis. It focuses on accumulation (buying quietly) and distribution (selling quietly) phases to predict future price moves.
3 Wyckoff Laws:
• Supply & Demand: Price rises when demand > supply.
• Cause & Effect: The longer the consolidation, the bigger the breakout.
• Effort vs. Result: If volume is high but price doesn’t move — a reversal may be coming.
Strategy in 5 Steps:
1. Define the market trend (up/down/sideways).
2. Pick strong stocks in uptrends, weak in downtrends.
3. Use consolidation range (P&F charts) to set price targets.
4. Confirm if stock is ready to move (breakout/breakdown).
5. Time entries with overall market turns.
Goal: Follow smart money and enter before the real move starts.
Stock Options & Covered Calls: A Simple Breakdown
Options are contracts that give you the right—but not the obligation—to buy (call) or sell (put) a stock at a fixed price by a certain date. They’re flexible, low-cost tools used for speculation, hedging, and income—but they carry higher risk than regular stocks.
One lower-risk approach is the covered call strategy, where you:
• Own the stock
• Sell a call option on it at a higher strike price
• Collect a premium for short-term income
• Gain limited downside protection
3 Outcomes of Covered Calls:
1. Price rises → You profit from the premium, but the stock may be sold at the strike price.
2. Price drops → The premium cushions some loss.
3. Price stays flat → You keep the premium as profit.
Covered calls are ideal when you’re neutral to mildly bullish on a stock’s near-term outlook.
Why Most Traders Lose Money: It’s All About Risk
Capital destruction isn’t just about a losing streak — it’s about poor risk management. Even with a 50% win rate, large position sizes can wipe you out.
Here’s the math:
• Lose 10% → need 11% gain to recover
• Lose 20% → need 25% gain
• Lose 50% → need 100% gain
• Risk 1% per trade → down 10% after 10 losses
• Risk 5% → down 50% in the same scenario
It’s not your win rate — it’s your position sizing that often kills your account. Survival in trading depends on how well you manage risk, not how often you’re right.
Protect your capital. Small losses are recoverable — big ones aren’t.
Japan real wages see sharpest drop since 2023
Real wages in Japan fell 2.9% in May — the steepest decline since 2023 and far worse than the expected 1.7% drop — as inflation continues to outpace nominal pay, which rose just 1%.
With elections in two weeks, PM Ishiba’s proposed cash handout struggles to gain support. All eyes now turn to the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on July 31.
Asia session break = like a Monday range.
It’s the first session of the day — a base to frame reversion or continuation setups.
Subsequent breaks often offer clean opportunities.
Keep this in mind heading into the new week.
OPEC+ to Raise Oil Production More Than Expected
OPEC+ will increase oil output by 548,000 bpd in August, surpassing the expected 411,000 bpd.
Key points:
— The group cites stable economic outlook and low inventories.
— This move accelerates the unwinding of the 2023 production cuts (2.2M bpd).
— Strategy appears to shift from price defense to market share, targeting US shale competition.
— Further hikes may be discussed at the next meeting on August 3.
— Despite plans, actual production may lag behind the announced increase.
5 Traits of People Who Actually Build Wealth
Here’s what sets true wealth builders apart:
1. Delayed Gratification – They sacrifice short-term pleasure for long-term gains.
2. Self-Discipline – They control emotions and stick to their financial plans.
3. Calculated Risk-Taking – They take risks, but only after careful analysis.
4. Lifelong Learning – They constantly improve their financial knowledge.
5. Goal-Driven Focus – They stay committed to long-term goals, no matter the setbacks.
Wealth isn’t just about money — it’s about mindset.
trading doesn’t reward more information - it rewards more clarity
more filters, more simplicity, more conviction, more removal - not addition
refine your system down to only what matters, everything else is noise
JUST IN: US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that Trump will implement April 2nd level tariffs on nations without trade deals with the US starting August 1st, further extending the tariff pause from July 9th to August 1st.
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JUST IN: Elon Musk has established the "America Party" to compete against both Republicans and Democrats.
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the charts aren’t hard to read
what’s hard is managing the voice in your head while reading them
fear, hope, doubt - all noise, clouding your judgement
the more you master your mind, the clearer the market becomes
Serious loan delinquencies on the rise across all sectors
U.S. consumers are falling behind on debt — with 90+ day delinquencies climbing in nearly every major category:
— Mortgages
— Home equity credit lines
— Auto loans
— Credit cards
— Student loans
The broad-based increase signals growing financial strain despite a strong labor market and resilient economy.
JUST IN: Elon Musk suggests that Independence Day could be an ideal moment to consider establishing a new "America Party." He questions if people would support a third party that competes with both Republicans and Democrats.
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India cracks down on Jane Street’s billion-dollar expiry game
Two hours ago, Indian regulators froze $5 billion of Jane Street’s profits and effectively kicked them out of the market. The reason: an aggressive expiry-week strategy that finally crossed the line.
Here’s how it worked (around day 15–18 before index expiry):
⚪️In the morning, they’d aggressively buy BankNifty components on both the cash and futures markets.
⚪️This would trigger a signal on the options market — other players see the index rising.
⚪️Meanwhile, Jane Street would sell calls and buy puts on the more liquid options side, which hadn’t caught up yet.
⚪️After noon, they’d dump the cash and futures positions, dragging the index back down and profiting from the puts.
A classic pump-and-dump — just done with billions in working capital.
They got caught because the losses were too consistent. They lost money every day on cash, futures, and index futures — except expiry day, when the real profit came from the options.
Most Profitable Chart Patterns
1. High & Tight Bull Flag
• Price doubles (or +90%) in ≤2 months, then forms a tight pullback
• Breakout above the flag signals continuation
• Target = size of the prior move
• Best used with tight stop and trailing exit
2. Complex Head & Shoulders Top
• 4–6 peaks after an uptrend, with multiple heads or shoulders
• Breakdown below neckline confirms reversal
• Target = height from head to neckline
• Volume confirms: fades on rallies, rises on drops
Both patterns work best with solid risk/reward and clear trade management.