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FOMC Minutes:
– Several participants noted that the federal funds rate may be close to its neutral level.
– Some participants indicated they would be open to considering a rate cut as early as the July meeting, if the data aligns with their expectations.
– Fed staff now expect higher real GDP growth in 2025 compared to the previous forecast, along with lower inflation.
– A few participants stated that the most likely and appropriate scenario involves no rate cuts in 2025.
JUST IN: Federal Reserve meetings reveal differing opinions on future rate adjustments.
• A few members expressed openness to a rate cut by July, contingent on data.
• Other members suggested no rate cuts would be warranted before 2025.
The conflicting views might cause uncertainty in the markets, influencing investor expectations and impacting the bond and stock markets.Читать полностью…
U.S. Market Cap-to-GDP Hits Record 208%
The U.S. stock market is now valued at 208% of GDP — an all-time high.
That’s a +43pp surge since April and a full double in 9 years.
For context:
• Dot-com peak (2000): 142%
• Long-term average: ~85%
NVIDIA becomes the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap.
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Apple Targets F1 Broadcast Rights in the U.S.
Apple is reportedly in talks to secure U.S. Formula 1 broadcast rights for 2025, challenging ESPN’s current deal (FT).
The push comes after the success of Apple’s “F1: The Movie,” which brought in $293M in its first 10 days.
candlestick patterns:
don't just blindly trade these.
set strict conditions that allow for proper testing.
once you determine a pattern has an edge that can either help determine bias or execute through data is when you can start to implement.
some pattern examples ↑
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The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has dropped to 19% — the lowest level since January 2025.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump emphasizes various topics, including trade tariffs, energy, and AI leadership.
- Trade Tariffs: Trump suggests tariffs could increase and believes he was lenient on trade.
- Energy: Criticizes wind energy as costly and detrimental to planes and valleys; comments on solar energy's reliance on Chinese plastic.
- AI & China: Claims the U.S. leads China significantly in AI.
- Federal Reserve: Calls for Congress to investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing rate cuts before the election which he claims favored Biden.
JUST IN: The US Treasury plans to boost its cash balance to $500 billion by the end of July following an increase in the debt ceiling.
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10 Ingredients of Great Traders
Success in trading isn't about predictions or stock picking — it's about mindset, risk, and process. Here’s what sets top traders apart:
• Passion — fuels the discipline and study required to succeed.
• Clear goals — knowing why you trade keeps you focused.
• Perseverance — long-term success comes to those who don’t quit.
• Resilience — bouncing back from drawdowns is essential.
• Backtesting — testing systems avoids costly real-time mistakes.
• Edge awareness — only trade when your strategy gives you an advantage.
• Positive expectancy — bigger wins than losses, or high win rates.
• Risk control — cut losers fast, let winners run.
• Flexibility — adapt to what the market gives, not your bias.
• Discipline — follow a plan, not emotions.
Trading is a performance craft — the edge is in execution.
Quick guide to spotting fair value using VWAP, volume profile, and order book data.
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Charlie Munger’s 5 Investing Mistakes to Avoid
Munger once said, “If people weren’t so often wrong, we wouldn’t be so rich.” His point? Most investors lose money not by bad luck, but by repeating avoidable mistakes.
Here are 5 deadly errors Munger warned against:
1. Emotional investing — Letting fear or greed guide decisions leads to poor outcomes. Stick to logic, not sentiment.
2. Market timing — Trying to predict highs and lows rarely works. The real gains come from patience and long-term holding.
3. Over- or under-diversification — Too little risk spreads you thin. Too much exposure increases vulnerability. Balance is key.
4. Unrealistic expectations — Markets are volatile and unpredictable. Stick to sound businesses and ignore short-term hype.
5. Failing to learn from mistakes — Analyze losses. Accept you’re wrong sometimes. Learn and adjust.
Munger’s legacy? Master your psychology, think long term, and profit where others fail.
The chances of no rate cuts this month have shot up to 95% in the betting markets
Higher for longer is still the name of the game
How to Become a Profitable Trader in 180 Days
1. Law of Large Numbers
You need at least 100 trades for your edge to show. Don’t judge your system on a few trades — results are random in the short term, meaningful in the long run.
2. Pick a Trading Style
Study different trading approaches (e.g. from Market Wizards), pick what fits you best (scalping, swing, position trading), and master it.
3. Create a Trading Plan
Answer these:
– What markets and timeframes do you trade?
– What’s your risk per trade (max 1%)?
– Entry criteria?
– Stop-loss placement?
– Take-profit logic?
4. Stick to the Plan
Execute 100 trades strictly by your plan. Start small. Don’t change rules after a few losses. Consistency is key.
5. Track Every Trade
Log entries, exits, setups, mistakes, and screenshots. This helps you spot patterns, errors, and areas to improve.
6. Check Your Edge
Use expectancy:
(Win% × Avg Win) – (Loss% × Avg Loss) – costs
If it’s positive — congrats, your system has an edge.
JUST IN: Google stock, $GOOGL, declines following reports that OpenAI intends to launch its own web browser.
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JUST IN: Sales on the first day of the four-day Amazon Prime Day event declined by 41%.
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JUST IN: The United States will impose new tariffs on several countries starting August 1, according to Donald Trump.
• A 25% tariff will be imposed on the Philippines and Moldova.
• A 30% tariff will be applied to Iraq, Algeria, and Libya.
These tariffs could lead to increased costs for businesses importing goods from these countries and may impact investor sentiment and market stability.Читать полностью…
10 Technical Trading Rules for Consistent Success
1. Trade with the trend – Start with the weekly chart, then zoom into daily/hourly.
2. Buy dips in bull markets, short rallies in bear markets.
3. Support/resistance often hold — but early breakouts tend to fail.
4. More tests = higher chance of breakout, and levels often flip roles.
5. Trendlines are your guide — draw left to right through higher highs or lower lows.
6. Chart patterns = visual signals of potential breakouts.
7. Use moving averages for entries, exits, and trailing stops.
8. Combine MAs with RSI for better profit-taking on stretched moves.
9. 52-week/all-time highs are bullish, lows are bearish.
10. Above the 200-day MA = uptrend, below = danger zone.
Price action over prediction. Discipline beats opinion.
Dip Buying Set for a Historic Year
“Buying the dip” is on track for its second-strongest performance in the past 40 years — highlighting just how rewarding 2025 has been for patient bulls.
SpaceX is now worth nearly $400B
Elon Musk’s SpaceX has hit a ~$400 billion valuation after a recent secondary share sale — up from ~$350B in December.
The key driver? Starlink. With around 4 million users, the satellite internet business is expected to bring in $15B in revenue in 2025.
Meanwhile, the company’s rockets — Falcon and Starship — are backed by a $22B contract pipeline from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense.
10 Signs You’re Becoming Your Best Self — Warren Buffett Style
Warren Buffett’s wisdom goes beyond investing. Here are 10 signs, rooted in his philosophy, that show you’re leveling up as a person:
1. You invest in yourself — Learning daily compounds like interest.
2. You choose better company — Surrounding yourself with strong characters lifts you up.
3. You make time to think — Deep thinking leads to better decisions.
4. You protect your reputation — It takes decades to build, minutes to destroy.
5. You define success personally — Not by money, but by doing what you love well.
6. You care for your mind and body — They’re your lifelong assets.
7. You break bad habits early — Before they become chains.
8. You master your emotions — Discipline beats impulse.
9. You focus on what you can control — Inner scorecard over outside opinions.
10. You think long-term — Success grows from seeds planted today.
Real success is about who you become — not just what you earn.
JUST IN: Donald Trump plans to announce new tariffs soon.
• Trump suggested a 50% tariff on copper.
• He threatened a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals.
• Believes that Elon Musk's party will offer support.
The introduction of high tariffs could significantly impact the respective industries, potentially leading to increased costs for consumers and affecting investor sentiment.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Donald Trump, when asked about Epstein, responded, "We have Texas, we have this, I can't believe you're still asking about him."
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JUST IN: Tariffs will begin to be paid on August 1, 2025, with no changes or extensions allowed.
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Citi boosts Nvidia target to $190
Citi raised its price target for Nvidia to $190 per share — implying a 19.5% upside from current levels.
The revision comes as investor confidence in AI and data center demand continues to fuel NVDA’s momentum.
Taiwan ramps up exports to the US at record pace
Amid shifting global supply chains driven by US tariff policies, Taiwan is deepening its ties with the American market.
In June, Taiwan’s exports reached a record $53.32 billion (+33.7% YoY). Shipments to the US soared to $17.27 billion — an all-time high and a stunning 90.9% increase from last year.
Yields rise — with or without tariffs
Trump’s tariff noise is back — and so is the 10Y yield at 4.40%.
That’s just ~20 bps below the recent highs seen when he paused tariffs for 90 days.
But the key shift?
Yields are climbing regardless of trade war headlines.
The market is now pricing in one dominant factor:
Exploding deficit spending is driving long-term rates.
US–EU trade tensions simmer, but no blowup yet
Despite expectations, Trump hasn’t sent a tariff threat letter to the EU — for now.
• Reuters reports ongoing intensive trade talks.
• A smooth deal seems unlikely given Trump’s high-drama, pressure-heavy approach.
• The EU’s complex structure and relative leverage make negotiations especially tough.
We're likely only mid-stage in Trump's typical negotiation cycle — and escalation still looks inevitable.
JUST IN: Trump announced a tariff on Japan starting August 1st and shared a trade letter regarding South Korea. The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods from South Korea, according to Truth Social.
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