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JUST IN: Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino is thinking about quitting due to the Epstein files memo, according to CNN.
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🕯 One cheat sheet to rule your candle pattern confusion.
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JUST IN: Trump commented on the Canada tariff carve-outs, indicating uncertainty with "We'll see." He also mentioned that the Canada tariffs were "fairly well received."
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Most Bullish S&P 500 Forecast So Far
Sanctuary Wealth Management predicts the S&P 500 will hit 7,000 by year-end.
Nvidia > Germany?
Nvidia’s market cap has now surpassed the entire GDP of Germany — plus an extra trillion dollars.
One chipmaker is now worth more than one of the world’s largest economies.
The Formula for Trading Full-Time
Trading for a living isn’t just about passion — it’s a numbers game. Here’s what you really need before quitting your job:
— No debt and low monthly expenses
— 6-month emergency fund (separate from trading capital)
— Enough capital to make returns meaningful
— A proven trading system with an edge
— Discipline, experience, and stress tolerance
— Acceptance of irregular income (trading ≠ paycheck)
• Reality: Traders don’t earn weekly — they earn only if their winners outpace losers.
• Your real boss becomes price action.
• Most fail because they chase big returns with small capital.
The math that matters:
Trading Capital × Monthly Return ≥ Monthly Expenses (plus taxes)
If that equation doesn’t work, you’re not ready. Most people should trade to grow capital first — not rely on it to survive.
JUST IN: The S&P 500 reaches a new record, increasing 30% from its low in April 2025.
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JUST IN: Dimon stated that the real data on the U.S. economy is extremely difficult to interpret and suggested there's a 40%-50% probability of higher U.S. interest rates.
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What is Position Trading?
Position trading is a long-term strategy where traders hold positions for weeks, months, or even years — aiming to catch large market moves. Unlike day or swing traders, position traders focus on the bigger picture, ignoring daily price noise.
Key traits:
– Hold few trades with high conviction
– Rely on weekly/monthly charts
– Often based on fundamentals, macro trends, or strong technical signals
– Minimal screen time — focus is on the big narrative
Position traders aim to ride major trends and capture most of the move. Patience and conviction are their biggest edge — and also their biggest risk.
Some of history’s greatest trades — like Michael Burry’s short on subprime mortgages — were position trades.
Buffett expects a 50% market correction
According to Warren Buffett, markets are now 1.5–2 standard deviations above the norm — a clear sign of overheating.
All major indices are at extremes, pointing to overbought and overvalued stocks.
And with crypto tightly correlated to equities, both markets could correct together.
Mean Reversion Strategy
Price often reverts to its average after extreme moves. Mean reversion traders exploit this by:
— Spotting overbought/oversold levels using tools like Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels
— Buying dips or shorting spikes near the 3rd standard deviation
— Targeting a return to the 20-day moving average
— Using stop-losses in case the trend continues
It’s not foolproof — but with proper risk/reward, it’s powerful in ranging markets.
Small Business Investment Hits Post-COVID Low
— U.S. small business CapEx index dropped to 50 in June — the lowest since 2020
— Sharpest monthly decline since April 2020 (NFIB)
— Current levels mirror the 2008 crisis
— Future CapEx plans fell to 21 — near 5-year lows
— Hiring plans rose slightly to 13, but remain weak
Economic uncertainty is putting pressure on small firms’ growth plans.
JUST IN: Google stock, $GOOGL, declines following reports that OpenAI intends to launch its own web browser.
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JUST IN: Sales on the first day of the four-day Amazon Prime Day event declined by 41%.
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JUST IN: The United States will impose new tariffs on several countries starting August 1, according to Donald Trump.
• A 25% tariff will be imposed on the Philippines and Moldova.
• A 30% tariff will be applied to Iraq, Algeria, and Libya.
These tariffs could lead to increased costs for businesses importing goods from these countries and may impact investor sentiment and market stability.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: The US Government reports a rare $27 billion budget surplus in June, primarily due to tariffs.
• Tariff collections in June reached approximately $27 billion, a +301% increase from June 2024.
• Total tariff collections for 2025 amount to $113 billion, up +86% year-over-year.
The significant increase in tariff collections could positively influence market sentiment by reducing the national deficit, potentially impacting investor confidence.Читать полностью…
Are you paying attention?
Bitcoin is now up +55% since its April 2025 low, hitting a RECORD $115,000.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar just had its WORST start to a year since 1973, falling nearly -11% in 6 months.
Current situation:
1. Bitcoin is up +60% in 3 months like the USD is broken
2. The USD is falling in its worst start to a year since 1973
3. Gold prices are rising toward $3,400/oz like inflation is back
4. Treasury yields are rising like deficit spending is worsening
5. Silver prices are rising like uncertainty never ended
Don't discount the impact of the deficit spending crisis.
5 Lessons from Jim Simons — the Greatest Trader of All Time
Jim Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies, ran the Medallion Fund — the most profitable hedge fund in history. Here's what traders can learn from him:
— Quantify your edge
Backtest historical data to find repeatable patterns. Simons' models were based on statistical analysis, not gut feeling.
— Follow your system with discipline
“We don’t override the models.” Even the best strategy fails without consistency.
— Trade liquid, model-friendly assets
Simons only traded instruments that were public, liquid, and quantifiable. Illiquid assets carry hidden risks.
— You don’t need a high win rate
His systems were right just 50.75% of the time — but with strong risk/reward ratios, they still made billions.
— Stick to the core principles
Risk management, small losses, and letting winners run — these principles never go out of style.
Trading isn’t magic — it’s math and discipline.
What is the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Quick explanation ↑
US Wage Growth Stalling?
13.3% of Americans haven’t received a pay raise — the highest in 4 years.
That’s up 3 points in 2 years, now worse than in 2001 and on par with 2008.
With CPI inflation at 2.4%, many are seeing real wage declines.
Headline jobs data looks strong — but under the surface, the labor market is clearly softening.
The crisis continues:
Since the debt ceiling was raised on July 3rd, US debt is now up $410 BILLION in 2 days.
This comes after the US Treasury ended "extraordinary measures," raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
We are in the midst of the US largest crisis.
President Trump says Fed Chair Powell "demeans the great credit of the USA."
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Risk appetite surges as investors pile into leveraged ETFs
A record $135 billion has now flowed into leveraged ETFs — the highest level ever.
Risk-on mode is clearly back.
Trump posted this on Truth Social.
The 50% copper tariff is now official.
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FOMC Minutes:
– Several participants noted that the federal funds rate may be close to its neutral level.
– Some participants indicated they would be open to considering a rate cut as early as the July meeting, if the data aligns with their expectations.
– Fed staff now expect higher real GDP growth in 2025 compared to the previous forecast, along with lower inflation.
– A few participants stated that the most likely and appropriate scenario involves no rate cuts in 2025.
JUST IN: Federal Reserve meetings reveal differing opinions on future rate adjustments.
• A few members expressed openness to a rate cut by July, contingent on data.
• Other members suggested no rate cuts would be warranted before 2025.
The conflicting views might cause uncertainty in the markets, influencing investor expectations and impacting the bond and stock markets.Читать полностью…
U.S. Market Cap-to-GDP Hits Record 208%
The U.S. stock market is now valued at 208% of GDP — an all-time high.
That’s a +43pp surge since April and a full double in 9 years.
For context:
• Dot-com peak (2000): 142%
• Long-term average: ~85%
NVIDIA becomes the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap.
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