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📉 Why Drawdown Matters More Than ROI
Traders love ROI because it looks impressive. But ROI is only half the story. The other half is drawdown, and that is what decides whether you can actually survive the strategy.
Here are the key lessons:
🟡 ROI is the dream, drawdown is the reality
ROI shows profit relative to capital. It is easy to market because it appeals to greed. But it ignores the journey. A strategy that ends up 80 percent for the year but dropped 60 percent along the way is untradeable for most people.
🟡 Drawdown is the survival test
Drawdown measures how much your account fell from peak to trough. Fifteen percent hurts but is tolerable. Forty percent starts to break confidence. Sixty percent wipes out most traders regardless of the eventual recovery.
🟡 Recovery math is brutal
Losses grow geometrically. Lose 10 percent, you need 11 percent back. Lose 50 percent, you need 100 percent. Lose 70 percent, you need 233 percent. ROI doesn’t show this climb, but drawdown makes it clear.
🟡 Psychology is stronger than math
ROI appeals to greed. Drawdown forces you to confront fear. And in real time, fear wins. Traders rarely abandon systems because ROI is too low. They quit because the drawdowns feel unbearable.
🟡 Ask the right questions
When you evaluate a strategy, don’t just ask about ROI. Ask what the maximum drawdown was, how long recovery took, what capital was needed to endure it, and whether you could personally stay in the trade through that stretch.
ROI belongs in spreadsheets.
Drawdown belongs in real life.
ROI tells you what is possible.
Drawdown tells you what it costs.
The truth is simple: profit potential gets attention, but drawdown decides survival. The traders who last are not the ones chasing the highest ROI, but the ones who respect the depth of the fall and prepare to endure it.
JUST IN: China is bearing an average tariff of 52%, and the Chinese government is absorbing most of this cost.
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JUST IN: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year is reported at 2.9%.
• Forecast was 2.9%.
• Previous value was 2.7%.
This data aligns with expectations and could stabilize investor sentiment regarding inflation concerns.Читать полностью…
📈 Knowing when you’re too late
One of the hardest questions in trading is simple: Am I chasing too late? A chart that’s already doubled or tripled is tempting, but also dangerous. That’s where base analysis brings clarity.
Stocks don’t rise in straight lines. They run, then pause to build what’s called a base. Each base tells you something about where in the cycle you are.
🟡 Base 1 — institutions are quietly building positions. Risk is high but reward is huge.
🟡 Base 2 — the trend is confirmed, smart traders still have room to enter.
🟡 Base 3 — retail starts noticing, momentum headlines appear.
🟡 Base 4 — the crowd has fully arrived. Expectations are stretched, risk outweighs reward.
By the time you see a fourth base, the best part of the move is behind you. The stock may still grind higher, but the odds of exhaustion are growing fast.
The key is to recognize that you’re not buying strength anymore - you’re buying what’s left after the real move has already happened.
Respect the cycle. Don’t be the one who shows up to the party just as the DJ is packing up.
❕ Insiders selling into strength
Fresh Form 4 filings show heavy insider selling across US corporates, with proceeds in the hundreds of millions. Some of the most notable:
• Arkady Volozh (NBIS) offloaded ~$270M
• Satya Nadella (MSFT) proposed ~$75M
• Stephen Squeri (AXP CEO) filed ~$37M
• Warburg Pincus & Co. multiple disposals across portfolio names
• Antony Ressler (ARES Co-Founder) repeated sales >$55M
Insiders sell for many reasons, but the scale and consistency stand out. With equities near highs, the fact that executives and major holders are reducing risk adds a cautious undertone.
🎰 Trading Lesson from a Casino
A casino doesn’t care about a single bet. It doesn’t panic when someone wins big, and it doesn’t celebrate when someone loses. The house knows it has an edge, and over thousands of plays that edge will always show.
Most traders act like players. They live trade to trade. Each loss feels personal, every deviation from plan feels like failure. That mindset makes it hard to stay consistent.
Trading works differently. It is not about being right today. It is about building a process with an edge and letting that edge play out over time.
🟡 The house has patience. It knows variance is normal. Traders need the same acceptance of randomness.
🟡 The house plays long term. It doesn’t care about one spin, but about thousands. Traders must stop obsessing over single outcomes.
🟡 The house trusts its edge. It doesn’t second-guess when variance shows up. Traders must learn to trust their process.
🟡 The house works with reality. It doesn’t fight against luck or streaks, it just keeps the game running. Traders should do the same with the market.
The shift is simple but powerful: from chasing prediction to understanding probability, from seeking control to trusting your edge.
That is how you stop acting like a gambler and start thinking like the house.
JUST IN: Trump questions Russia over its drones entering Poland's airspace, remarking, "Here we go!"
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JUST IN: The S&P 500 hits a record at 6,550, marking an increase of over +35% since April 2025 as markets anticipate rate cuts.
• Oracle stock ($ORCL) is set for its best day since 1999.
This significant rise in the S&P 500 could boost investor confidence, potentially driving further inflows into the market as expectations for rate cuts solidify.Читать полностью…
💰 The World’s Strongest Brands in 2025
Apple holds the crown with a staggering $1.3T brand value, up 28% from last year. But it’s not alone in the trillion-dollar club.
🟡 Apple: $1.29T (+28%)
🟡 Google: $944B (+25%)
🟡 Microsoft: $885B (+24%)
🟡 Amazon: $866B (+50%)
🟡 NVIDIA: $509B (+52%)
Behind them, Meta, Facebook, and Tencent trail in the $200–300B range.
Takeaway: the biggest “brands” aren’t luxury labels - they’re tech monopolies. And the gap is only widening.
JUST IN: German Foreign Minister Wadephul stated that Russia's drone incursion into Poland signifies an acceptance of escalation. He added that since Russia is not open to diplomacy, a strong response will be given.
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📉 Jobs Data Just Got Nuked
The BLS quietly revised payrolls down by 911,000 for March 2025. Add in 2024’s adjustment, and that’s more than 1.7M jobs erased from the record.
🟡 This year’s revision: -911K
🟡 Last year’s: -818K
🟡 Biggest combined downward shift in over a decade
The message is clear: the labor market was never as strong as reported.
With jobs melting under revision, the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance is on borrowed time. Rate cuts aren’t optional anymore - they’re inevitable.
Apple $AAPL unveils iPhone 17 Pro.
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📝 The three phases of trading mastery
Most traders fail not because they lack intelligence, but because they try to skip the process. They want shortcuts. They want to run before they learn how to walk. Yet every expert, in every field, follows the same sequence of growth. No exceptions.
🟡Phase one: the playground
All mastery begins with play. Olympic swimmers started by splashing around. Pianists started by being fascinated with sound. Traders begin by being curious about markets. This is the stage where you explore without pressure. You are not focused on money. You are figuring out what draws you in. Is it price action, news flow, or the way charts move? This curiosity is the fuel that sustains the long journey ahead. Skip it, and the process becomes unsustainable.
🟡Phase two: skill building
Once curiosity takes root, you shift into structure. You begin to define your style. You test whether scalping, swing trading, or macro analysis resonates with you. Practice becomes intentional. Journals, routines, chart study, and review sessions become part of daily life. The motivation here is not external validation but the small wins of improvement. Predicting a move correctly or refining an entry becomes satisfying in itself.
🟡Phase three: the pursuit of mastery
At this point, trading is no longer just an activity. It becomes part of who you are. This stage requires mentorship, relentless practice, and a lifestyle shaped around markets. The rewards are not immediate. It is demanding and often exhausting. But this is where the separation between hobbyist and professional takes place.
Most traders start backwards, chasing advanced strategies before building curiosity and foundations. That is why they quit when results don’t come fast. Curiosity fuels discipline, skills create consistency, and only then does mastery become possible. Explore if you are new, build habits if you are learning, and embrace effort if you are aiming for mastery.
Mastery in trading is not a mystery. It is a process that works the same way for everyone. The only decision is whether you respect the sequence or keep searching for shortcuts that never exist.
JUST IN: The US Labor Department has reduced its job figures by 911,000 for the year ending March 2025, indicating the job market is much weaker than previously reported.
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JUST IN: An Axios reporter on X, citing a senior Israeli official, stated that the explosion in Doha was an assassination operation targeting senior Hamas officials.
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🥈 Silver squeeze is heating up
Silver lease rates in the UK jumped above 5% for the fifth time this year. Normally they sit close to zero, so the spike signals real supply stress.
🟡 The gap between NY futures and London spot widened to $1.20/oz
🟡 Comex warehouse inventories hit their highest level since 1992
🟡 Investor demand is pouring into ETFs and physical supply
Silver demand is historically high, but the market structure is flashing signs of tightness. When lease rates move like this, it usually signals turbulence ahead.
💵 Cash is not king
A Fidelity study shows where Americans park their money:
🟡 Cash and money market funds: 71%
🟡 Individual stocks: 64%
🟡 Mutual funds: 43%
🟡 CDs: 38%
🟡 Crypto: 31%
🟡 ETFs: 26%
🟡 Real estate: 25%
🟡 Bonds: 19%
🟡 Precious metals: 13%
🟡 Alternatives: 7%
🟡 Options: 5%
Holding most of your portfolio in cash is like handing the Fed your wallet and saying: “please burn it.”
Cash isn’t king. It’s kindling. And inflation is the match.
JUST IN: The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2.00%, aligning with both the forecast and the previous rate.
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JUST IN: India's rupee hits a new all-time low against the US Dollar.
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Your accuracy can only increase with your willingness to be selective.
If you allow your need to make money to exceed this, then down goes your accuracy.
Patience is a big part of long term consistency.
Not a trader who can call any setup in any condition. That’s unlikely.
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JUST IN: NVIDIA's market value is now larger than that of every country's stock market except for the U.S., China, Japan, and India, according to Deutsche Bank.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump urged Powell to significantly lower the interest rate immediately.
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JUST IN: The US PPI decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, contrasting with the forecast of 0.3% and the previous rate of 0.9%.
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📈 ICT Seek & Destroy: What It Really Means
One of the trickiest conditions in trading is the Seek & Destroy profile. The market runs stops both above highs and below lows, taking out liquidity on both sides. It looks like opportunity, but in reality it’s designed to trap traders again and again.
🟡 How to spot it: usually shows up around 15min charts and can last a whole session or day. Price will keep making higher highs and lower lows, sweeping liquidity in both directions.
🟡 How to handle it: it’s a low-probability condition. Once you see S&D forming, best move is to step aside — the market doesn’t want anyone profiting that day.
🟡 Why it forms: often before big events like FOMC, CPI, or NFP. Traders position early, algos run their stops both ways, and liquidity is harvested. The goal isn’t trend, it’s cleanup.
🟡 When to expect it:
– The day before or after major economic releases
– After a big range day or overnight run
– Around holiday sessions with thin liquidity
– When Asia’s range gets cleared in London or NY open
The lesson is simple: not every day is meant to be traded. Spotting S&D early saves your account - the real win is knowing when not to play.
Success starts when you value your trading rules more than the profits and acknowledge they come as a consequence of your discipline.
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JUST IN: Apple has introduced the iPhone Air, which is the slimmest iPhone ever released.
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🌍 China’s exports pivot away from the U.S.
China’s shipments to the U.S. plunged –33% YoY in August, one of the steepest drops on record. Imports from the U.S. also fell –16%.
Meanwhile, exports to other regions are rising fast:
🟡 EU +10.4% YoY
🟡 ASEAN +22.5% YoY
🟡 Africa +26% YoY
The U.S. is still China’s top single-country buyer ($283B YTD), but the EU bloc has already doubled that at $541B.
US–China trade is no longer the anchor it once was. The axis of global trade is shifting and the divergence is accelerating.
JUST IN: Spot gold reached a new record high of $3,660.
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JUST IN: Several explosions were reported in Doha, Qatar.
• Smoke was observed over the Katara district.
• The events were witnessed by Reuters correspondents.