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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: Gold prices have surpassed $4,200 per ounce, while silver prices have climbed nearly 5% in a single day. This rally signals markets anticipating the convergence of stimulus checks, rate cuts, and inflation.
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JUST IN: Kevin Hassett commented on housing policy, stating he is unsure whether Trump has decided on introducing 50-year mortgages.
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JUST IN: The SMH Semiconductor ETF recorded $1.3 billion in inflows last week, marking a new high.
• This exceeds the prior record of inflows from Q1 2022.
• It doubles the average weekly inflows for the year.
• Simultaneously, the 3x leveraged long Nasdaq 100 ETF showed related activity.
These record inflows indicate robust investor interest in the semiconductor sector, which could enhance market sentiment and support upward price momentum in tech-related assets amid ongoing AI and chip demand.
💰 Ray Dalio: The Year the Dollar Died and Markets Took Off
💥 In 1971 the US ran out of money and quietly defaulted by leaving the gold standard. Money as people knew it stopped existing.
📈 Instead of a crash the stock market jumped almost 25%. The same pattern appeared in 1933 when the dollar was devalued.
Ray Dalio says both moments proved one thing. When governments create money to pay their debts, assets surge while the currency slowly loses its worth.
JUST IN: Scott Bessent stated that a proposed $2,000 rebate would target individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, but the plan has not been finalized.
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JUST IN: SoftBank's stock plunged more than 10% after revealing a $5.8 billion sale of Nvidia shares.
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⚠️ Another “lucky” trade from Capitol Hill ?
Congresswoman April Delaney just disclosed two biotech buys:
✔️ $30K in Labcorp ($LH) — parent company of Covance, which develops animal medicines and biotech products
✔️ $15K in Bio-Techne ($TECH) — a diagnostics firm for both human and animal testing
And the interesting part? She sits on the House Agriculture Committee and its Research and Biotech Subcommittee.
💰 Big Tech Takes On $126B in AI Debt and It’s Starting to Look Risky
The AI race has turned into a borrowing frenzy. In just September and October, Meta, Oracle and others raised $88 billion in bonds to build new AI data centers. Oracle alone borrowed $18 billion, lined up another $38 billion, and secured an $18 billion loan.
That brings total AI-related borrowing to $126 billion, which is five times higher than last year. For a decade the sector averaged only $32 billion a year.
💣 Credit markets are getting nervous
The cost to insure Oracle’s debt, known as its five-year CDS, just hit a two-year high and has nearly doubled since the start of the year. Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect Oracle’s total debt to climb above $200 billion by 2028.
💸Cash flow is going the wrong way
Oracle’s free cash flow is already negative. The company is spending faster than it earns and using complex financial structures to keep part of the debt out of sight. The leverage keeps rising while profits fail to catch up.
⚖️ A bet that could make or break them
Default risk is not on the table yet. Oracle remains investment grade with a strong cloud business. But the warning signs are there.
If AI revenue scales, this debt will look like a smart long-term play.
If not, it could become the biggest tech bubble since the dotcom era.
📖 Buffett’s Final Note as CEO: TLDR for Busy Readers
Warren Buffett is 95. He says goodbye as Berkshire’s CEO and hands the wheel to Greg Abel. Here’s the essence of his eight-page message:
🔼 Leadership
• Greg Abel becomes CEO at year end
• Buffett steps away from annual letters and marathon AGMs
• Plans to stay in touch with shareholders through short Thanksgiving notes each year
🍀 Roots and luck
• Omaha shaped his mindset and network
• Credits his success more to luck than talent
• Acknowledges that time wins eventually, though he still works every day
👩⚕️ Aging and health
• Grateful for longevity but aware of limits
• Says good doctors and luck saved him more than once
• Accepts aging as part of the game — you keep going while you can contribute
💸Shares and philanthropy
• Accelerating lifetime gifts to his children’s foundations
• Wants most of his Berkshire shares to go toward philanthropy
• Plans to keep a block of A shares until investors are fully confident in Greg Abel
🧭Governance and culture
• Warns boards to watch for cognitive decline in leadership
• Notes that CEO pay transparency fueled envy, not restraint
• Reminds that Berkshire’s culture is about integrity, independence, and shareholder trust
🔍 Berkshire outlook
• Sees the company as stable with solid prospects
• Admits its size limits future growth
• Tells investors to expect 50% drawdowns at times and not lose faith in America or Berkshire
💡Life advice
• Learn from mistakes and move forward
• Choose the right heroes and follow their example
• Live the kind of life you’d want written in your obituary
❕Two gems to keep
• Kindness is costless and priceless
• The cleaning lady is as much a human being as the Chairman
Buffett’s letter isn’t about money - it’s about character.
He’s leaving the stage the same way he built his legacy: calm, humble, and human.
His message to investors and anyone listening is simple - wealth fades, reputation lasts, and kindness compounds better than any portfolio ever will.
Charlie Munger’s life in his 30s was terrible.
His wife left him
He went bankrupt
Watched his nine-year-old son die from leukemia
He lost one of his eyes and had to do an excruciating surgery.
Most people probably would’ve given up on life, but he didn’t.
Through all that suffering, he was still able to smile and make jokes.
Charlie Munger is an example of it doesn’t matter how many times you get beat down.
The only thing that matters is if you get up and keep trying.
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BREAKING: The US Government shutdown is now expected to end on Thursday, per Polymarket.
The longest shutdown in US history is about to end.
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President Trump says all left over money from his $2,000 "tariff dividend" stimulus check will be used to pay down national debt.
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🏠 The 50-Year Mortgage: A Band-Aid on a Broken System
The new 50-year mortgage is being sold as a way to “make homeownership affordable again.” On paper, it sounds like relief for first-time buyers who are now hitting 40 before they can even think about buying. But the math and the reality tell a different story.
🟡 The Illusion of Savings
Take a $400,000 loan at 6%. Switching from a 30-year to a 50-year mortgage only cuts your monthly payment by about $166. That’s barely a dinner out. The tradeoff? You’ll end up paying over $860,000 in interest instead of $418,000, literally double the principal.
And lenders usually charge an extra 0.3–0.5% for the longer term, which eats up the savings entirely.
🟡 The Equity Trap
In the early years of a 50-year mortgage, nearly every dollar goes to interest. You build almost no equity while someone on a 30-year term is already gaining wealth and refinancing options. It’s like delaying your investment years, compounding works against you instead of for you.
🟡 The Real Problem Isn’t the Loan
The issue isn’t the mortgage length. It’s that home prices have detached from wages. The price-to-income ratio in the U.S. is around 5:1, when it used to be closer to 3:1.
Housing supply is tight, zoning laws are outdated, and institutional investors are buying up homes to rent them back at inflated prices. Stretching loans to 50 years doesn’t solve this - it just locks people into debt longer while ownership drifts further out of reach.
🟡 The Only Way It Makes Sense
The 50-year loan could make sense only if you use it tactically: take the lower payment now, then refinance later when rates drop or income rises. But that assumes discipline, stability, and good timing - three things most households can’t rely on in this market.
🟡 The American Dream Is Fading
The median age of first-time homebuyers tells the story:
1980 — 28 years old
1990 — 30
2000 — 31
2010 — 32
2024 — 38
2025 — 40
Each decade pushes the dream further out. The longer mortgage might look like a solution, but it’s really a mirror reflecting how far affordability has fallen.
The real fix isn’t a 50-year loan - it’s building more homes, reforming zoning, and making sure wages can actually catch up to the price of living.
Discipline is not motivation.
Discipline is doing it when you don’t feel like it.
Set the checklist.
Follow the checklist.
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❓ What Is a Call Option
A call option is a type of financial contract that gives you the right (but not the obligation) to buy a stock at a specific price before a certain date. Think of it as reserving a stock at today’s price in case it goes up later.
📊 The basics
Each stock option contract usually covers 100 shares. So if a call option is priced at $2, it actually costs $200 total ($2 × 100 shares). The only time this changes is if the company’s stock splits or reverse splits.
When you buy a call option, you are not required to keep it until it expires. You can sell it earlier if the price moves in your favor.
💵 How traders make money
A call option gains value when the underlying stock price goes up. The more it rises above your chosen strike price (the agreed buying price), the more valuable your option becomes.
If you expect a stock to rise soon, buying a call option lets you benefit from that move with less money upfront than buying the stock itself.
🕯 Buying vs selling
📈 The buyer of a call option pays for the right to buy the stock later.
📉 The seller of a call option collects that payment and is agreeing to sell the stock if the buyer decides to exercise the contract.
If the seller already owns the stock, this is called a covered call, which is a popular way to earn extra income on shares you already hold.
⏳ Time and value
An option’s price changes for several reasons:
🟢 Delta shows how much the option price moves when the stock moves $1.
🟢 Gamma shows how quickly Delta itself changes as the stock moves.
🟢 Theta is time decay — every day closer to expiration slightly reduces the option’s value.
🟢 Vega shows how changes in market volatility affect the option price.
⚖️ The bigger picture
Call options are not traditional investments. They are short-term bets on price movement. They can help you:
✔️Create leverage with small capital
✔️Earn income on stocks you already own
✔️Manage or hedge portfolio exposure
But they can also expire worthless if the stock doesn’t move as expected. That’s why traders treat them as tools, not guarantees.
In simple terms, a call option is a flexible way to bet on a stock going up without buying it outright. You just need to understand the timing, cost, and risk that come with it.
JUST IN: Kevin Hassett warns that a government shutdown will negatively impact this quarter's GDP.
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JUST IN: Anthropic has announced it will invest $50 billion in building data centers in the US.
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JUST IN: U.S. House Majority Leader Scalise announced that the House will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown on Wednesday around 7 p.m. ET.
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📈 Gold vs Stocks: 25 Years, One Clear Winner
A $10K investment made in January 2000 tells the story best. After 25 years of inflation spikes, recessions, and policy swings, one asset quietly came out on top.
🟡 Gold: $10K → $126,596
🟡 S&P 500 (with dividends): $10K → $77,495
❕ That’s a 63% higher return for gold over the same period.
🔽 Stocks had brutal drawdowns in 2001–02, 2008–09, and 2022, which slowed compounding even with dividends.
🔼Gold, on the other hand, gained from inflation waves, currency volatility, and consistent central bank demand.
Since 2000, gold hasn’t just held value — it compounded steadily while surviving every major shock.
For long-term savers, the takeaway is simple: resilience beats hype. Gold didn’t need bull runs to win; it just kept doing what it’s meant to do.
Don’t look for perfect answers in an imperfect market.
Chasing perfect is following your trading plan and letting probabilities play out.
It’s NOT:
- chasing a 100% winrate
- chasing concepts that work a 100% of the time
You’ll just end up wasting years of your time.
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❕ If you’re struggling in trading, understand this. So was every single trader who’s ever made it.
☄️ Every one of them sat in front of the charts for months feeling lost, second-guessing their entries, doubting if they were even meant for this. You’re not behind, you’re in the exact phase that builds real traders.
❓ The difference between the ones who make it and the ones who quit isn’t talent, it’s tolerance. Tolerance for uncertainty. For losing. For looking wrong. For being misunderstood by people who’ll never get what this life demands.
❗️ Trading isn’t meant to feel easy. It’s meant to test your patience, your discipline, and your belief when everything else tells you to walk away.
📝 If I could recommend one thing, document your process. Track your trades, your emotions, your sessions. You’ll start to realize progress isn’t made in profits, it’s made in data and reflection.
🛡 Every professional trader you look up to has been through this storm. They didn’t escape it, they learned how to operate inside it.
Moral of the story: you’re not failing, you’re in training. This business rewards those who stay long enough to become the person capable of surviving it.
JUST IN: Crypto investment funds recorded net outflows of $1.2 billion last week, marking the second-largest since March and the second straight weekly drop.
🪙 Bitcoin drove the bulk of outflows at $932 million.
🪙 Ethereum followed with $438 million in outflows.
🪙 Solana saw positive inflows of $118 million.
These substantial outflows from major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum may heighten selling pressure and dampen market sentiment, potentially weighing on prices, while Solana's gains could bolster its investor appeal amid broader negativity.
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JUST IN: SoftBank has announced the sale of its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8 billion.
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JUST IN: The Nasdaq 100 has pushed its daily gains to +2.5%, fueled by a rally in AI stocks amid preparations for the government's reopening.
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JUST IN: Switzerland is reportedly nearing an agreement on a 15% tariff deal with the United States.
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💣 Three Silent Account Killers
These habits don’t wipe your account in a day, they wear it down slowly. Every trader faces them at some point, but only a few learn to control them.
🟡 Overconfidence After Wins
A few good trades can trick you into thinking you’ve mastered the market. You start increasing position sizes, ignoring stops and taking trades outside your plan. Confidence turns into ego, and the market quickly reminds you who is in charge.
What to do:
After a winning streak, slow down instead of speeding up. Review your trades and figure out what actually worked. Was it your edge or just market conditions? Staying cautious after profits is what keeps them in your account.
🟡 Pattern Recognition Bias
When you want a setup too much, your brain starts seeing it everywhere. Every candle looks like an entry, every move feels like the start of something big. You stop waiting for confirmation and start chasing what you wish to see.
What to do:
Write down clear conditions for your entries. If even one factor is missing, skip the trade. Waiting feels boring, but it’s how you protect capital. Missing a trade costs nothing. Forcing one always costs something.
🟡 Attachment to Being Right
Many traders hold losers because closing means admitting a mistake. Pride gets in the way, and the loss grows. The market doesn’t care who is right. It only rewards those who react fast.
What to do:
Judge yourself by discipline, not by outcome. A small loss taken by plan is a good trade. Accept being wrong quickly, reset, and move on.
Trading is not about being perfect. It’s about staying in the game. Keep your ego small, your process clear, and your losses even smaller.
💸 Trump Brings Back Stimulus Checks — The “Tariff Dividend”
President Trump announced what he’s calling the “tariff dividend”, a payment of at least $2,000 per American, excluding high-income earners.
Over 85% of adults are expected to qualify, which means roughly $400–450 billion in direct cash will soon hit the economy.
🟡 Who Gets It
The plan mirrors the 2021 stimulus rules. Full payments would go to individuals earning under $75,000, heads of household under $112,500, and couples under $150,000. Around 220 million Americans fit that range, meaning almost everyone below the top 15% of earners will receive it.
🟡 Why It Matters
This move comes as US debt nears $40 trillion and markets trade near record highs. In 2021, similar stimulus checks turbocharged consumer spending but fueled the strongest inflation in decades. Now inflation is already ticking back up toward 3%, and this could push it higher again.
Trump says future tariff revenue will go toward paying down debt. But tariff income, around $30 billion per month, barely covers 10% of the current federal deficit. The math doesn’t balance, and the new spending wave risks widening the gap.
🟡 The Bigger Picture
The Fed has already started cutting rates again after years of tightening. Liquidity is rising, the economy is still expanding, and asset markets are hot. Layering in hundreds of billions in new cash could supercharge everything — from stocks and real estate to crypto.
🟡 What Comes Next
This is effectively the largest stimulus ever launched at market highs, not during a crisis. The S&P 500 is only a few percent below its all-time peak, tech investment is booming with $200B+ in quarterly AI spending, and household wealth is at record levels.
The macro setup is explosive: easier policy, more liquidity, and a fresh round of checks landing in consumer pockets. Whether it’s sustainable or not is another story, but for now, the message is clear.
Liquidity wins again. Own assets.
JUST IN: The median value of US consumers' stock market investments has exceeded $300,000 for the first time in history. This figure covers individual stocks, mutual funds, and retirement accounts such as 401(k)s or IRAs, and it has more than tripled since April 2020.
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