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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: US stocks increased by more than +$1 trillion in market capitalization today, fueled by positive large-cap tech earnings and growing enthusiasm for AI.
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JUST IN: The Indian government has criticized the U.S. for increasing tariffs, stating that the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable.
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JUST IN: Trump has claimed that India is purchasing large quantities of Russian oil and then selling it on the open market for significant profits. He announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on India.
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📈 Wyckoff Logic still runs the game
Richard Wyckoff was one of the first to map market cycles not as technical patterns, but as psychological traps.
He believed price moves were engineered by smart money and the key to profit was understanding their intentions.
A century later, his framework still explains most market traps better than any indicator 👇
🟡 Accumulation: low volume, max boredom. Everyone's out, except the ones who matter. Smart money fills bags in silence.
🟡 Markup: disbelief turns into FOMO. Volume rises. Retail starts chasing candles and stories.
🟡 Distribution: the party feels endless. Narratives peak. Insiders quietly unload while the crowd celebrates.
🟡 Markdown: exit doors get small. Weak hands panic. Most realize too late they were liquidity.
Every cycle follows this logic.
The only question is: where are we now?
JUST IN: Trump is set to appoint a new Federal Reserve governor and Bureau of Labor Statistics chief.
• The new appointments are due to Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Fed to return to Georgetown University.
• Trump fired current BLS head Erika McEntarfer after poor jobs data.
• Candidates are expected to align with Trump's preference for rate cuts.
The appointments could influence investor expectations and market sentiment, particularly regarding future economic policy direction based on Trump's preferences for the Federal Reserve.Читать полностью…
📉 Alex Krüger compares current market drop to August 2024 crash
Macro strategist Alex Krüger says we’re seeing a “smaller-scale replay” of last year’s August crash — triggered back then by a BoJ rate hike, hawkish Fed comments, and a recession-scare jobs report.
This time? No carry trade collapse, but the same pattern is emerging.
🟡 Hawkish Fed tone + hot PCE inflation
🟡 Weak earnings from Amazon added fuel
🟡 Markets flipped into “bull trap” midweek, then tanked after Friday’s ugly jobs report
🟡 Trump firing the BLS chief was “noise,” but nuclear war comments triggered liquidations and likely marked the local bottom
Krüger sees crypto bottoming either now or Monday, just like in 2024. He plans to increase long positions before the US open — if panic continues overnight.
What’s next?
🟡 6.5 weeks until the next Fed meeting
🟡 Jackson Hole in late August
🟡 FOMC may turn dovish if economic data weakens further
🟡 Trump now gets to nominate a dovish Fed governor, potentially shaping rate policy ahead of 2026
Krüger remains bullish for Q4, citing:
🔥 Strong US growth
🔥 Rate cuts beginning in September
🔥 Improving regulatory clarity for crypto adoption
🎯 BTC 1-year target: $200K–$250K
Extreme, he admits — but plausible if fiscal + monetary policy overheat together in 2026.
He flags a bearish risk: Trump losing midterms. But that’s a separate thread.
Trading is a waiting game.
Waiting games are the hardest games you'll ever play.
They go against our natural tendency to want things fast.
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You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next in order to make money.
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If I win 80% of the time and lose 20% of the time, I wouldn't know if the next trade is one of the 80 or one of the 20
You can do anything you want in this life.
All those people you admire?
They're just human.
There's nothing they can do that you can't.
❕ Not trying is failure
stop trying to win more, start trying to lose less
you know what a high-quality setup looks like
the problem is what you do in between
boredom erodes discipline, and one dumb trade resets your entire progress
one step forward, two steps back
learn to be okay doing nothing, preserve your momentum
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👩🎓 ICT cheat sheet — dealing range, premium/discount, and PD array
Let’s break down what dealing range, premium/discount, and PD array matrix actually mean — without sounding like a trading seminar.
🟡 A dealing range is just a clean way to box in price between a recent swing high and swing low. It tells you where the market's been hunting liquidity.
🟡 Smart money doesn’t trade the middle. They sell in premium (top half of range), buy in discount (bottom half).
🟡 When price hits premium, it’s seen as expensive. In discount, it’s considered value. That’s where you watch for reactions — not in no-man’s-land.
🟡 PD arrays (like FVGs, OBs, breakers) are just zones where the market might bounce or reverse. They work best if they align with premium/discount logic.
🟡 Most valid dealing ranges get “swept” first — taking out both highs and lows — before showing real direction. That’s where traps happen.
Know the box you’re in, and stop longing from premium praying it’s different this time.
👆 Groundbreaking stuff from the brightest minds on Wall Street.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump expressed his satisfaction about having an open position on the Federal Reserve Board, acknowledging that he knows Federal Reserve's Kugler disagreed with Powell.
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📈📉 Jesse Livermore: The rise and ruin of a trading legend
The greatest trader of the early 20th century made and lost entire fortunes multiple times. His net worth swings are still hard to believe.
Here’s what the chart shows — and what it teaches 👇
🟡 At 23, Livermore was up $1.68M
🟡 A year later, he was in debt $16K
🟡 By 30, he was worth over $90M
🟡 At 31, he hit $156M — his first real peak
🟡 He then lost almost everything again in 1908
🟡 In 1929, he shorted the crash and hit $1.6B (2021 dollars)
🟡 By 1934, he was down $100M and never recovered
💡Key lessons:
🔥 Volatility isn’t new — Livermore lived it
🔥 Even genius traders blow up without emotional discipline
🔥 It’s not just about making money. It’s about keeping it
🔥 Your biggest win can come right before your biggest mistake
The man who beat the market also became a cautionary tale.
This is why risk management isn’t optional.
The poor own cars
The middle class own homes
The rich own businesses
Starting a business doesn't guarantee great wealth, but it's one of the few paths to get there.
JUST IN: The EU will pause trade countermeasures against the US for six months.
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JUST IN: Tesla's new stock award for Elon Musk ensures leadership stability until 2030, according to Wedbush.
• The 96 million-share grant aligns with efforts to secure Musk’s long-term commitment.
• The award is valued at $23.7 billion.
• Requires Musk to pay $23.34 per share upon vesting.
This strategic move could enhance investor confidence and positively influence Tesla’s stock price by assuring stable leadership during a competitive period in the AI industry.Читать полностью…
Looks like it works on the S&P 500 index itself
If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks on the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time.
🖌 Figma IPO: every VC's dream seed round
Figma’s IPO glow-up is making early investors look like prophets. Let’s count the returns.
🖱 Index Ventures:
$3.8M seed → $7.2B → 1,900×
🖱 Greylock Partners:
$14M → $6.7B → 480×
🖱 Kleiner Perkins:
$25M → $6B → 240×
🖱 Sequoia Capital:
$40M → $1.1B → 27×
🖱 a16z:
$50M → ~$1.5B → 30×
🖱 Durable Capital:
$200M → ~$1.4B → 7×
The craziest stat?
Index Ventures only put 1% of its fund into the seed — and now it’s returned 17.5× the entire fund from that single bet.
Sometimes one stroke really does paint the whole picture.
Stress isn’t the enemy.
It’s the signal you’re in the game.
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🧠 One setup, infinite plays
Here’s a stripped-down look at one of the cleanest ICT setups. Built around liquidity traps, confirmation blocks, and time-of-day bias.
🟡 Setup starts with a premium PD array — where price is considered expensive
🟡 Look for a stop hunt during macro windows (like NY open)
🟡 First confirmation: Inversion block holds and rejects
🟡Second confirmation: Breaker confirms shift in structure
🟡 Entry comes on second candle close below breaker or FVG low
🟡 Risk is capped at the high of the inversion — target 1:2
It’s simple, repeatable, and rooted in market logic — not hope.
Master one play.
Trade it like a machine.
Life goal: get rich — then tell everyone money doesn’t matter.
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🐻 Arthur Hayes starts offloading $ETH, $ENA, and $PEPE
Arthur Hayes, who once predicted $ETH would reach $10K, has begun selling his holdings.
➡️ 2,373 $ETH sold for $8.6M
➡️ 7.76M $ENA sold for $4.56M
➡️ 38.87B $PEPE sold for $411K
➡️ Wallet
Hayes confirmed the sales and shared a new price outlook for $BTC and $ETH.
JUST IN: Eric Trump advises to "buy the dips" in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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The biggest risk isn't failure.
It's giving up right before you would’ve succeeded.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump claims the latest jobs figures are manipulated to harm him and the Republicans.
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