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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire.
📉📈 Big Tech vs Small Caps
The 5 largest US stocks (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META) are now worth 4.9x more than all small-cap stocks combined, a new record.
🟡 Since 2019, this ratio has tripled, driven by mega-cap tech.
🟡 Gains since then: NVDA +5109%, MSFT +435%, AAPL +463%, AMZN +203%, META +440%.
🟡 In the same period, the Russell 2000 (small caps) rose just 66%.
🟡 For context: at the dot-com bubble peak (2000), the ratio was ~1.5x.
Before the 2008 crisis ~1.0x.
Small caps have never been this overshadowed. The US market is now more concentrated than ever.
📈 Previous Day / Week Highs & Lows
Some of the cleanest levels you can use for bias are simply the previous day’s and week’s highs and lows.
Price always reacts to them - it’s just about how.
🟡 Closes beyond PDH/PWH → continuation likely, next target is new highs.
🟡 Fails to close beyond → expect reversal back inside the range, often targeting the opposite side.
🟡 Inside day → no break, just balance. Sets up expectation for the next move.
🟡 Closes back inside after a break → early sign of reversal, liquidity shift back inward.
The trick: don’t look at these levels in isolation. Use them to frame the bigger narrative.
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JUST IN: Ukraine will agree to purchase $100 billion of American weapons financed by Europe to obtain US security assurances, reports the Financial Times.
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📈 4 charts worth studying on repeat
Markets recycle the same playbook - learn these setups and you’ll spot the next leader before it runs.
🟡 Clean Bases – Flat bases, VCPs, tight consolidations. They look boring, which is why they work. Messy charts = weak conviction.
🟡 Volume Clues – Big spikes on up days, quiet pullbacks on low volume. That’s how institutions load up.
🟡 Theme Alignment – The strongest moves ride strong narratives. Story pulls capital, chart gives the entry.
🟡 Explosive Breakouts – Price leaves the base hard and clean, with 2x+ average volume. No chop, no hesitation.
The ticker changes. The structure doesn’t. Train your eye and the next breakout won’t surprise you.
JUST IN: Zelenskiy visits the White House to meet with Donald Trump.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration reportedly considered acquiring a 10% stake in Intel.
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JUST IN: Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated that it is 'impossible to give up territory' to Russia.
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📉 China’s credit engine stalls
In July, Chinese net new loans fell by ~50B Yuan - the first decline in 20 years.
🟡 Earlier this year, loans were expanding by ~5T Yuan
🟡 The drop came from net repayments, as households and firms avoid new debt
🟡 Signals growing caution and weaker confidence in economic outlook
Credit is the lifeblood of China’s growth model.
When lending dries up, momentum follows.
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📈 IRL vs ERL made simple
Price only does two things: it hunts liquidity outside the range (ERL) or rebalances inside it (IRL).
Once one side is cleared, the draw shifts to the other.
🟡 ERL (External Range Liquidity) – swing highs/lows packed with stops. After they’re taken, focus shifts inward.
🟡 IRL (Internal Range Liquidity) – imbalances and Fair Value Gaps. Once filled, price often looks outward again.
🟡 Cyclical nature – markets don’t move in straight lines. Expansion is followed by rebalancing, swings by mean reversion.
🟡 Invalidation – if IRL fails to offer fair value, the swing that created it becomes the new draw (inversion FVG).
🟡 Fractal principle – works on all timeframes, but cleaner on higher TFs.
The game is simple: ERL → IRL → ERL. Master this flow, and candles stop looking random.
It is an exercise in discipline to either end your trading day in a loss or not place any trades.
If you can learn how to do both and be content.. you’ve already surpassed many retail traders.
It’s not easy to sit with a loss until your next trading session.. and it’s not easy to sit still and do nothing.
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Early on, your trades will look bad and your timing worse.
It’s part of the cost of learning.
Better to look foolish now than broke later.
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JUST IN: President Trump announces “big progress on Russia” and advises to “stay tuned.”
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Great trading is not built on success.
It's built on pain.
It's built on failure.
It's built on frustration.
But great traders use this as fuel to improve not to give up.
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📖 Atomic Habits for Traders
James Clear’s “Atomic Habits” shows how small actions build big change.
Applied to trading, the lessons are simple but powerful:
🟡 Small habits compound – Success rarely comes from one big win. It’s built on routine: journaling trades, reviewing setups, recording price reactions. Over months, these “boring” steps sharpen instincts and edge.
🟡 Systems beat goals – Chasing goals can feel distant. Instead, design systems that make discipline automatic.
Clear’s loop: cue → craving → response → reward.
Example: keep your trade journal on your desktop, tick it off daily, reward yourself after finishing.
🟡 Identity drives behavior – You trade according to who you believe you are. If you see yourself as “a consistent, profitable trader,” every disciplined action is a vote for that identity. Slip once, it’s an accident. Twice, it’s a habit.
Trading edge doesn’t come from one breakthrough strategy. It comes from stacking small, consistent actions until they become second nature.
JUST IN: Nvidia is creating a new AI chip for China using the latest Blackwell architecture, which will surpass the capabilities of the current H20 model permitted for sale, according to sources.
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💸 The real cost of inflation
Forget the “2%” headline.
Look at what actually happened in the last 5 years:
🟡 Eggs +157%
🟡 Auto insurance +61%
🟡 Fuel oil +58%
🟡 Gas utilities +56%
🟡 Home prices +52%
🟡 Transportation +43%
🟡 Shelter +28%
This is why official CPI feels like fiction.
Markets may price policy, but households live in reality.
Most traders can click buttons.
Few can sit still.
Master that, and you’ve already won half the game.
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JUST IN: The Kremlin announces it will oppose any deployment of Western troops on Ukrainian territory.
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JUST IN: Trump: The war will end when it ends; I can't specify when. Regarding security guarantees, Trump stated that they'll be involved. He also mentioned a commitment to achieving a lasting peace.
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JUST IN: Russia is against any plans involving the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
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At $4.5 trillion, Nvidia's market cap is now $1.5 trillion higher than all of the stocks in the Russell 2000 combined.
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JUST IN: Trump: Big day at the White House. Let's see what the results will be.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump announced plans to lead a movement against mail-in ballots and intends to sign an executive order regarding the 2026 midterm elections. He asserted that U.S. states must follow federal directives.
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❕Key Events This Week:
🟡 Home Depot $HD Earnings - Tuesday
🟡 FOMC Member Waller Speech - Monday
🟡 Target $TGT Earnings - Wednesday
🟡 Fed FOMC Minutes - Wednesday
🟡 Walmart $WMT Earnings - Thursday
🟡 Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday
🟡 Services / Manufacturing PMI - Thursday
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Most never start.
Most who start quit.
The ones who stay eventually win.
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JUST IN: Trump and Putin have agreed that the US could offer Ukraine security guarantees.
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📊 SMT Divergence - spotting when markets stop moving in sync
SMT (Smart Money Technique) divergence is all about catching when two related markets break correlation, a hint the current move might be running out of steam.
How it works:
If two assets normally move together (e.g. NQ & ES, BTC & ETH) and one pushes to a new high/low but the other doesn’t, it can signal distribution (bearish) or accumulation (bullish).
Key setups:
🟡 Bearish SMT – One market makes a higher high, the other fails. Often leads to a reversal down.
🟡 Bullish SMT – One market makes a lower low, the other holds. Often sparks a reversal up.
🟡 FVG SMT – Fair Value Gap appears in both, but only one actually trades into it.
Why it matters:
✅ Helps confirm a change in trend at higher timeframe levels
✅ Reveals the stronger/weaker market so you can position with the advantage
✅ Works best when aligned with your main bias, not as a standalone signal
🔥Direct correlation examples: NQ–ES, BTC–ETH, EU–GU
🔥Inverse correlation examples: DXY–EU, DXY–GU
When markets stop moving in lockstep, smart money is telling you something. The trick is listening, and acting, before the crowd catches on.
Sacrifice weekends now
Сhoose your Mondays later
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