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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
📊 What is TPO (Time Price Opportunity) and why it matters
TPO is a foundational concept in Market Profile — a tool used by serious traders to understand where and when the market spent time.
Instead of just looking at price or volume, TPO shows how long the market accepted a price.
🟡 Each letter = one 30-minute block (A = first 30 min, B = next, etc.)
🟡 The more letters stacked at a level, the more time price spent there
🟡 This reveals “value areas” — zones where the market feels comfortable
🟡 Single prints = rejection zones (price passed quickly, no acceptance)
It’s not about prediction — it’s about seeing where the market is building structure.
TPO charts help identify:
✅ Balance vs imbalance
✅ Areas likely to act as support/resistance
✅ Where large players are likely active
Once you see time as a variable — not just price — your whole map of the market changes.
📣 Ray Dalio: “The biggest mistake is assuming tomorrow will look like yesterday”
Dalio predicted Japan’s collapse.
He warned about 2008 before it hit.
Now he sees something bigger coming.
Here’s the core of his thesis:
🟡 The US is nearing the end of a debt supercycle. Debt-to-GDP is at 122%, close to WWII levels.
🟡 Interest payments are exploding. Treasury costs now exceed military spending.
🟡 Central banks are running out of tools. Cuts won’t save growth.
🟡 Political fragmentation is at extremes. Dalio calls it a “soft civil war.”
🟡 US–China tensions aren’t just trade — they’re structural, long-term, and potentially irreversible.
This mix = systemic fragility + global volatility.
So what’s the play ❓
Dalio isn’t hiding in cash.
🟡 He diversifies geographically — betting on multiple systems, not just one.
🟡 He owns “hard” assets: gold, inflation-linked bonds, select equities.
🟡 And despite skepticism, he calls Bitcoin “digital gold” — a store of value in uncertain times.
He’s not bullish on crypto as money.
But he is bullish on crypto as an escape valve — a hedge against fiat failure.
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JUST IN: Intel shares are down 2.1% premarket after Donald Trump criticizes the Intel CEO, suggesting they are highly conflicted and should resign.
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JUST IN: Bessent: Trade deals are largely completed.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump is set to sign an order enabling alternative assets to be included in 401(k) plans, according to a White House official.
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📊 Buyback boom hits new record
US companies announced $166B in stock buybacks last month — the highest July ever recorded.
🟡 Beats the 2006 record of $88B
🟡 Triple the 2021–2023 average
🟡 Year-to-date: $926B in buybacks, already above any full-year record
🟡 Financials and tech are leading the charge
Corporate America isn't waiting for outside validation — they're buying their own future.
Your urgency is killing your results.
If you don’t know how to wait, you'll keep giving your profits back to the market.
Understand this and your trading will flip.
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📈 How to scale into trades without wrecking them
Most traders ruin good setups by adding too fast, too early, or too big.
The goal isn't to increase exposure — it's to increase clarity.
Here’s what helps:
🟡 Start small and scale only on strength, not weakness
🟡 One add per move is enough — more is chasing
🟡 Each add should be 10–20%, never more
🟡 Never average down — if price dips below entry, the setup is invalid
🟡 Set a firm size cap so emotions don’t override logic
Good scaling is boring, structured, and unemotional.
If it feels exciting — you're probably doing it wrong.
Trump hits India with 50% tariffs over Russian oil
Trump just signed an executive order raising tariffs on Indian imports to 50% officially in response to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil.
This is the first time the U.S. has economically punished a country for supporting Russia.
What this changes:
• India is one of Russia’s top oil buyers. This move aims to choke off that cashflow
• It puts pressure on India’s currency and inflation outlook
• It signals a shift - the U.S. is now targeting partners, not just enemies
• If India refuses to back down, it could strengthen its alignment with Russia and China
• Oil markets could react if India is forced to pivot away from Russian crude
Market impact to watch:
• Bearish pressure on INDA ETF and the rupee
• Possible oil upside if flows from Russia get disrupted
• More volatility for EM and commodity currencies
On the oil chart, we’re seeing a classic PO3 setup - accumulation, manipulation, and now signs of expansion.
And after three years of consolidation, if this breaks out, the move could be sharp and extended.
❕Your dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power over the past 30 years
That’s not an anomaly.
That’s the system.
Inflation isn’t just a number — it’s a silent thief.
Invest in real assets, or watch your money evaporate.
🔥OUR ALPHA PRIVATE COMMUNITY IS NOW OPEN — 5 DAYS ONLY
We’re opening the gates again until Sunday midnight.
White Horse is our private Telegram group, built by the teams behind Trade Watcher and Crypto Insider.
It’s a tight focus group where we trade, share ideas, and track real market shifts together.
Inside, you’ll find:
💸Crypto
➡️ Trend tracking, narrative flows, and mindshare recaps
➡️ Swing setups on coins from the top 200 CMC
➡️ High-risk meme plays and early on-chain bets
💵TradFi
➡️ Macro bias and weekly outlooks
➡️ Mid-term setups on FX, indices, and metals
➡️ Stock insights from a guy who sees it before the crowd
🪙 $45/month — fixed for early members
The price will go up with the next wave, but those who join now keep this rate for good.
Back in 2011, Charlie Munger shared his thoughts on Donald Trump 👆
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Every day, come to the market not wanting to trade.
Just ask yourself:
Is there something so obvious I can't ignore it?
JUST IN: Donald Trump is preparing new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet if Putin doesn't agree to a ceasefire by Friday, according to the Financial Times.
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JUST IN: Trump cautioned the EU about possible 35% tariffs.
• He stated he lowered their tariff from 30% to 15% after they paid $600 billion.
• He described this as a gift rather than a loan.
• The payment allows him to invest as he wishes, insisting it's time for the EU to contribute due to past discrepancies.
This announcement could affect market expectations, impacting investor confidence and trade relations between the EU and the US.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: The Trump team supports Fed's Waller's interest in rate cuts due to forecasts and prefers him for Fed Chair.
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JUST IN: US jobless claims for the week of August 2 reached 226,000, slightly higher than the estimate of 221,000. Continuing claims for the week of July 26 were 1.974 million, exceeding the forecast of 1.950 million.
• Continuing claims increased to 1.974 million.
• Initial jobless claims were higher than predicted.
These figures may influence market sentiment as higher-than-expected claims could signal potential concerns in the labor market, impacting investor confidence.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Donald Trump demands that the CEO of Intel step down.
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JUST IN: The Bank of England reduces its key interest rate to 4% following a 5-4 vote.
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📕 ICT made simple (just 80+ acronyms to memorize)
Thinking of going full ICT?
Here’s the cheat sheet.
Save it, forget it, then panic mid-trade trying to recall what FVG or SMT means.
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JUST IN: President Trump says reciprocal tariffs have officially taken effect.
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JUST IN: Trump plans to meet with Putin from Russia as early as next week, according to the New York Times.
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JUST IN: Switzerland's president is departing the US without finalizing a trade agreement with Donald Trump.
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JUST IN: India intends to take steps to safeguard its national interests, criticizing US tariffs as "unfair, unjustified, unreasonable."
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JUST IN: Trump signs an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India.
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📈 Trading isn’t about prediction — it’s about psychology
Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the Zone, spent decades studying why traders fail despite having strategies that should work. His conclusion? It's rarely the method — it's the mindset.
🟡 Markets are neutral — your reaction isn't
🟡 "Being right" is emotional, not profitable
🟡 Edge is probabilistic, not predictive
🟡 Most trading errors come from fear — not lack of skill
🟡 Confidence comes from trust in your process, not your outcome
Douglas believed the real battle is internal.
Until you stop fighting the market — and start mastering yourself — no strategy will save you.
👆 No one did it like Jim Simons.
Not a single losing year in terms of gross returns.
152.10% return in a single year on 5.2B is insane.
💰 Berkshire’s cash pile hits historic high
Berkshire Hathaway now holds 30% of its total assets in cash and short-term investments — the highest level on record.
🟡 That's over $180 billion sitting idle or waiting for deployment
🟡 Cash share is double the 2009 crisis peak and well above 2020 levels
🟡 Warren Buffett has repeatedly said he’d rather “wait for fat pitches” than chase yield
When the most patient investor in history is this defensive, it’s worth asking: what’s he waiting for?
📱 India overtakes China as top smartphone supplier to the US
In just one year, India’s share of smartphone exports to the US jumped from 13% to 44%, while China’s dropped from 61% to 30%.
🟡 India now leads the US smartphone supply chain for the first time
🟡 China’s dominance has been eroding since the 2020s trade war
🟡 Vietnam holds steady around 25%, while “Other” shrinks to just 2%
Supply chains are shifting fast—and so is the balance of power.
🥇 The man who cracked the market like a math problem
Jim Simons didn’t come from Wall Street. He was a mathematician, a codebreaker, and a professor.
But in the end, he built the most successful hedge fund in history — Renaissance Technologies.
His Medallion Fund returned 66% annually (gross) for over two decades. Closed to outside investors. No talking to media. No market narratives. Just data, math, and silence.
Here’s why he stands apart:
🟡 Worked at the NSA breaking Soviet codes during the Cold War
🟡 Got fired for opposing the Vietnam War — then became a geometry professor
🟡 Launched Renaissance at age 44 with no trading experience
🟡 Hired physicists, statisticians, even astronomers — but almost no finance people
🟡 Built predictive models using pattern recognition and historical data, not charts
🟡Medallion’s strategies were so secret that even employees couldn’t access full models
🟡 Routinely outperformed during both bull and bear markets — including 2008
🟡 Donated billions through the Simons Foundation to fund math and science research
🟡 Famously said: “Don’t get emotional. Just do the math.”
While others chased narratives, Simons treated the market like a noisy equation — and solved it.
Still, the biggest alpha might be this: he knew when to stop trading.