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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: The S&P 500 climbs by more than 80 points after Fed Chair Powell mentions that the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting Fed policy.”
The possibility of a rate cut in September is now being considered by the markets, potentially boosting investor confidence and driving equity prices higher.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Investors are increasingly wagering on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in September.
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JUST IN: Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole today at 10 AM EST.
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💵 Treasury launches $4B debt buyback
The U.S. Treasury repurchased $4 billion of its own bonds - one of the largest buybacks in history.
This is essentially QE without the Fed.
A new lever for liquidity just came online.
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Getting consistent payouts starts with having a consistent process.
Knowing to the T what you're waiting for and what you want to see in the charts.
Not "vibe" trading like the majority does, where they execute on whatever feels good.
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👤 Larry Williams: the trader who turned $10K into $1.1M
In 1987, he entered the Robbins World Cup Trading Championship with $10,000.
One year later, the account showed $1,147,000.
An audited 11,376% return - still the record almost 40 years later.
And the story doesn’t end there. In 1997, his daughter, actress Michelle Williams, entered the same contest at just 17. With Larry’s guidance, she posted a 1,000% gain and won.
What makes him unique:
🟡 Systematic swing trader — built mechanical rules long before algos went mainstream.
🟡 Indicators — created the Williams %R, still widely used to measure overbought/oversold levels.
🟡 COT pioneer — one of the first to use futures positioning data to track institutional vs. retail flows.
🟡 Author — his book Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading (1999) became a classic for swing traders.
🟡 Philosophy — markets are not random; trends persist longer than most expect.
His most famous strategy, the Volatility Breakout, is built on that idea:
When price exceeds yesterday’s range by a set factor, you enter. Simple rules, timeless logic.
Larry’s legacy isn’t just the record. It’s proof that discipline, clear systems, and the right mindset can create extraordinary results.
JUST IN: The US S&P August Services PMI reached 55.4, surpassing the estimate of 54.2.
• Manufacturing PMI recorded at 53.3, above the estimated 49.5.
• The Composite PMI was 55.4, up from the previous 55.1.
This unexpectedly strong PMI data could boost investor confidence, potentially leading to positive market movements in related sectors.Читать полностью…
📰 Trading the News - Simplified
Most traders overcomplicate fundamentals. In reality, three headlines move markets: FOMC, CPI, NFP.
🟡 FOMC: Higher rates = stronger currency. Lower rates = weaker currency.
🟡 CPI: More inflation = more hikes = stronger currency.
🟡 NFP: More jobs = strong USD. Fewer jobs = weak USD.
The trick isn’t predicting the news, it’s aligning your technical setups with the fundamental direction.
JUST IN: China is restricting sales of Nvidia's H20 chip following remarks by a U.S. commerce secretary.
• U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated the U.S. sells China lower-tier chips.
• China's actions involve the Cyberspace Administration, the NDRC, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
• The chip is specifically designed for the Chinese market.
This restriction could impact Nvidia's sales prospects and the technological development landscape in China, potentially affecting market dynamics internationally.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Russia has launched a major aerial assault on Ukraine involving 574 drones and 40 missiles.
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⏫ Mag 7 at Record Valuations
The Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) have never been this expensive on a free cash flow basis.
Median EV/FCF just hit 48.5 — the highest level ever.
🟡 Valuations are stretched beyond previous cycles
🟡 Heavy infrastructure spending will pressure balance sheets
🟡Compression in multiples looks inevitable
Markets can stay irrational longer than expected, but extremes like this don’t last forever.
JUST IN: The Fed officials showed increased concern about an economic slowdown before a weak jobs report.
• Minutes from the Fed’s July 30 meeting revealed expectations of weak growth in the second half of the year.
• Officials pointed to slower income gains impacting consumer spending.
• July's jobs report revised down May and June job growth estimates by 258,000, exacerbating fears about the labor market.
The worsening labor market outlook could influence investor sentiment and potentially impact market valuations.Читать полностью…
🔥Classic Market Comedy
Every setup looks perfect… right before it wrecks whoever jumped in.
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🥇Gold vs 🥈 Silver
Silver has ripped +16% since April while gold slipped slightly.
At the same time, gold derivatives and mining explorers climbed ~30%.
🟡 Investors are moving up the risk curve within metals
🟡 Early-stage miners are catching strong bids
🟡 Clear signs of a long-term mining bull market forming
The shift isn’t just about spot prices - it’s about capital flowing deeper into the metals ecosystem.
JUST IN: Fed Chair Powell warns that "downside risks to the labor market are rising." The Fed plans to reduce rates by 25 bps in September, attributing the decision to these labor market concerns.
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JUST IN: Powell announced that the Fed is abandoning the 2020 Flexible Average Inflation Targeting Framework.
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📈 How to approach key high-impact news
Not all news is equal. NFP, FOMC and CPI are the big three. They set the tone for the week and can flip the market in seconds. The trick is to know how each one behaves.
🟡 NFP – Always Friday 8:30am.
The whole week can drift waiting for it. Monday to Wednesday is usually cleanest. Thursday is low-probability chop.
On Friday don’t touch until 30 min after release. If FOMC comes the same week, NFP matters less.
🟡 FOMC – Wednesday 2pm.
A two-stage game: first spike at 2pm, another push around 2:30pm.
Real direction shows later in the afternoon (3–4pm). Never chase the first move. The edge comes from waiting.
🟡 CPI – 8:30am, usually Wednesday.
Day before is dead. Release day is violent. Stand aside for at least 30–60 min after print. Only then look for setups when the dust settles.
The lesson is simple: high-impact news isn’t about prediction. It’s about survival, patience, and letting the market show its hand before taking yours out of your pocket.
Jackson Hole this year is likely Powell’s last appearance on that stage, the final signal before September’s FOMC.
Theme is “Labor markets in transition.” Powell faces a tough balance: sticky inflation and strong wage growth argue for hawkish pushback, while slowing jobs data shows fragility that needs support.
Markets keep betting on cuts, but expectations shift with every data release. Odds of a September cut dropped from 99% last week to 73% after weak labor data and hotter PPI.
Jackson Hole rarely gives hard answers, but it sets the tone. In 2022 Powell needed 8 minutes to end a global rally. The question is whether he tries to shake markets again.
Whatever the message, rate cut bets in the next 6 months won’t vanish. Hawkish signals fade fast with political pressure building.
Crypto looks like it front-ran the fear - vol spiked, dips are being bought. But euphoria can quickly turn into weeks of grind lower if macro delivers the triggers.
The real question isn’t if the Fed cuts.
It’s whether you’re ready for the scenario where your bullish plan doesn’t play out.
BREAKING: President Trump will be making a televised “announcement” from the Oval Office Friday at noon ET
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JUST IN: The US military plans to accumulate a reserve of cobalt for the first time in decades.
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JUST IN: Peter Navarro emphasized the significance of reaching a deal with the European Union, indicating a plan to impose a 15% tariff on automobiles, reduced from the current 25%.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump claims Ukraine could not win the war against Russia because Biden would not allow Ukraine to retaliate.
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JUST IN: The U.S. and EU have announced details of a trade agreement finalized last month.
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💥 Record Shorts in Small Caps
Speculators have piled into the biggest short position in Russell 2000 futures in at least a decade.
🟡 Net non-commercial positioning just hit -21.6% of open interest
🟡 Last time shorts reached extremes like this, sharp rallies often followed
🟡 Small caps are seen as the most sensitive to rates, credit stress, and economic slowdown
When positioning gets this crowded, the market rarely stays calm for long.
📉 "Reasons to Sell"
From flash crashes to oil spills, debt downgrades, taper tantrums, pandemics, wars, sanctions, inflation, and every doomsday headline in between - the S&P just kept climbing.
Markets have a funny habit: the scarier the chart annotations, the higher the line goes.
The real "reason to sell"?
Probably when there are no reasons left.
Winning is easy.
Trying to turn things around when you’re losing is where the real difficulty lies.
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📊 Bill Ackman’s Top Stock Picks in 2025
Bill Ackman keeps his $13.7B Pershing Square portfolio ultra-concentrated - just 10 names.
Each one is a high-conviction bet he’s willing to hold for years.
🟡 Uber ($2.8B, 20%)
His biggest position. Ackman sees Uber as the global ride-hailing and delivery leader with improving profitability and sticky recurring revenue.
🟡 Brookfield Corp ($2.5B, 18.5%)
A giant in alternative asset management: real estate, infra, renewables, private equity. Stable cash flow and global diversification.
🟡 Alphabet ($2B+, 15%)
Heavy exposure to Google’s ad empire, Cloud growth, and AI bets. Ackman doubled down on GOOGL. He calls YouTube the most undervalued part of Big Tech.
🟡 Restaurant Brands Intl. ($1.5B, 11%)
Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, Firehouse Subs. A pure global franchising play with long runway for expansion.
🟡 Amazon ($1.28B, 9%)
E-commerce dominance plus AWS as one of the most profitable cloud businesses. Also a bet on AI scaling margins.
🟡 Howard Hughes Holdings ($1.27B, 9%)
Master-planned communities and urban mega-projects. Ackman likes the long-term value creation in real estate despite cycles.
🟡 Chipotle ($1.2B, 8.8%)
One of his long-time favorites. Stock is down, but he sticks with the brand’s pricing power and expansion potential.
🟡 Hilton Worldwide ($807M, 6%)
Asset-light franchising model, strong global brand, consistent fee income. A stable hospitality compounder.
🟡 Hertz Global ($104M, <1%)
Tiny, risky bet. Struggling with EV transition and rental demand. More of a speculative flyer than a core holding.
🟡 Seaport Entertainment ($94M, <1%)
Small but fast-growing leisure and entertainment play. Already up 40% since entry.
Ackman’s style is simple: concentrate, size up on durable businesses, ride out volatility.
JUST IN: Donald Trump promises to stop approvals for wind and solar projects, calling them "the scam of the century."
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JUST IN: Trump called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to step down following her alleged involvement in mortgage fraud. An ally claims she misrepresented two homes as "primary residences" for better rates. He also criticized Fed Chair Powell for damaging the housing market.
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