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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: A US Appeals Court has ruled that the majority of Donald Trump's global tariffs are illegal.
• The court determined that Donald Trump "exceeded his authority" in implementing the tariffs.
The ruling may lead to a reassessment of current trade policies and could impact investor sentiment towards affected industries.Читать полностью…
📈 Hedge funds are piling into China
Chinese equities just recorded the strongest monthly inflows from hedge funds ever. After years of selling pressure, capital is flooding back in size, both onshore and offshore.
This is more than a short-term trade.
It shows hedge funds are willing to re-risk into China again, betting that policy easing and stimulus will outweigh structural headwinds.
Whether this becomes a sustained trend or just a positioning squeeze will set the tone for global flows in Q4.
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JUST IN: The U.S. reported July's core PCE price index showed an increase.
• The annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since December 2024.
• The core PCE monthly rate climbed to 0.3% from 0.1%.
• The overall PCE annual rate remained at 2.6% with a monthly increase of 0.2%.
This increase in the core PCE rate could heighten inflation concerns, potentially influencing monetary policy and impacting financial markets.Читать полностью…
📈 Auction Market Theory — the backbone of price action
Most traders stare at candles without asking the real question: what is the market trying to do here?
Auction Market Theory breaks it down into four simple steps:
🟡 Define Value
Price first establishes a fair value, a balance zone where most of the trading happens. Roughly 70% of volume lives here. Think of it as the market’s comfort zone.
🟡 Test Extremes
Price pushes outside that zone. If rejected, it snaps back to value. If it breaks, we move into discovery, a new area of business.
🟡 Imbalance
This is where things accelerate. One-sided order flow creates sharp, directional moves. These aren’t levels you fade, they’re moves you ride.
🟡 Rebalance
Eventually, the market pauses and either builds a new fair value area or returns to the old one. Balance always follows imbalance.
This cycle repeats endlessly.
Balance → test → imbalance → rebalance.
The skill isn’t predicting the cycle but recognizing which phase you’re in and trading with it, not against it.
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JUST IN: President Trump's 50% tariffs on imports from India have now been implemented.
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📈 The 5 stages of building a trading system
Most traders begin by chasing ready-made strategies, believing success can be copied from someone else’s rules.
But a trading system isn’t something you “find” - it’s something you build, through mistakes, losses, and the lessons you pay for.
And while everyone’s journey looks different, the path usually runs through the same stages:
🟡 Copying — following others blindly, without understanding the reasons behind their decisions.
🟡 Mechanical rule following — rigid checklists, no flexibility. Works only until the first exception breaks it.
🟡 Partial adaptation — rules are tested and adjusted, but still without full understanding.
🟡 Integration of logic and discipline — realizing there are no perfect strategies, only principles applied with consistency.
🟡 Personalization — full ownership. The system reflects your psychology, risk tolerance, and experience.
The lesson is simple: a trading system must grow with you. There’s no finish line where development stops — only constant refinement as both you and the market evolve.
JUST IN: Nvidia's CEO Huang is discussing with the Trump administration the sale of advanced Blackwell AI chips to China. He is ready to offer the US government a portion of those sales and desires US tech to become a global benchmark akin to the US dollar.
Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Analysts raise target prices for NVIDIA.
• JPMorgan increased its target to $215 from $170.
• Rosenblatt adjusted its target to $215 from $200.
• Benchmark set a new target at $220, up from $190.
• BofA Securities raised its target to $235 from $220.
• Citi lifted its target to $215 from $170.
• Jefferies increased its target to $205 from $200.
• KeyBanc now aims for $230, up from $215.
• DA Davidson raised its target to $195 from $135.
• Truist Securities increased its target to $228 from $210.
The series of target price increases could signal positive investor sentiment, potentially boosting NVIDIA's stock value.Читать полностью…
$NVDA earnings update
Revenue came in at $46.7B, up 56% from last year. Data center revenue was $41.1B, also +56%, but just under forecasts. EPS at $1.05–1.08 beat estimates.
Guidance for Q3 is $54B ±2%, slightly above consensus. This does not include potential sales of H20 chips to China, which are still uncertain.
The big headline was buybacks.
Nvidia announced a new $60B program, on top of $24B already returned in the first half.
Even with strong numbers, the stock dropped about 2–3% after hours.
Traders are cautious about the small miss in data centers and the China situation.
In short: Nvidia is still printing strong results. Buybacks add upside, but with positioning heavy, any doubt on China demand is enough to cool the move.
Less but better trades = more wins
Less stocks on your watchlist = more focus
Less risk per trade = more calmness
Less technical indicators = more signal clarity
In trading, less is more.
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📊 Nvidia vs the world
$NVDA would need another $800B in market cap to surpass the entire Nikkei, the world’s second largest stock market.
It’s already bigger than the GDP of Germany, the UK, France, and Italy.
JUST IN: The European Union plans to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods to address President Trump's requirements. In return, the US may reduce tariffs on cars imported from the EU.
Читать полностью…
▶️ Fed power shift in play
Yesterday’s spotlight was on Trump’s push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move that could flip the balance of power inside the Fed.
🟡 If Cook is out, Trump-appointed Governors would hold 4 of 7 seats (excluding Powell)
🟡 That would give Trump the majority on the board for the first time in history
🟡 With Trump calling for 300 bps of rate cuts, this shift could open the door to aggressive easing
🟡 Cook’s term runs until 2038, making this challenge unprecedented
The Fed has never faced a political reshuffle like this, and the outcome could define the next chapter for US rates and markets.
JUST IN: Donald Trump stated they have plans in mind concerning Putin if necessary and warned that an economic war would negatively impact Russia.
Читать полностью…
✋ Why most traders quit — and what you can learn from it
Trading looks exciting from the outside, but most beginners don’t last. The path is long, filled with losses, and demands far more patience than people expect.
Here are the biggest reasons traders give up, and the lessons hidden in them:
🟡Blowing up the account
The fastest way to exit trading is to lose everything too soon. Beginners often risk too much, chase random signals, and hope luck saves them. When the account is gone, the journey ends.
The lesson: survival comes before profit. Without risk management, there is no second chance.
The lesson: trading is not a lottery ticket, it’s a craft that takes years to build.
The lesson: treat losses as tuition, not disaster.
The lesson: discipline means restarting small, rebuilding momentum, and staying consistent.
The lesson: knowing when to step away is strength, not failure.
🏦 Central banks flip from Treasuries to gold
For the first time since 1996, foreign central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries in their reserves.
🟡 Gold holdings as a share of reserves have been climbing steadily for a decade, while Treasury allocations keep shrinking.
🟡 The 1970s showed what happens when this trend accelerates — a structural shift in global finance.
🟡 This marks a break from the dollar’s dominance as the “risk-free” asset, with gold regaining its role as the anchor of reserves.
This isn’t just about metals.
It’s a sign of global rebalancing, away from US debt, toward hard assets.
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It’s a tight focus group where we trade, share ideas, and track real market shifts together.
Inside, you’ll find:
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The price will go up with the next wave, but those who join now keep this rate for good.
💰 US tariff revenues hit record highs
Customs duties have quietly become one of Washington’s biggest cash machines.
After “Liberation Day” in April, monthly tariff revenue exploded from $8B to nearly $28B by July.
🟡 Tariffs now bring in $136B YTD, making them the 4th-largest federal revenue source after income taxes, social security, and corporate tax.
🟡 Still, it barely dents the picture: the US deficit sits at $1.6T, and annual interest payments alone are $841B.
🟡 Trump floated the idea of using tariff windfalls to “pay down debt” — or even pay out a dividend to Americans.
Tariffs are finally meaningful in size, but they’re a drop in the bucket compared to US spending.
The bigger story is what happens if revenues keep climbing toward the “half-trillion to trillion” level hinted by Treasury.
Most people are trying to find an answer in a box.
Few seek the answer outside of the box.
And even fewer understand that there is no box.
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JUST IN: The S&P 500 has surpassed 6,500 for the first time ever.
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💵 Buffett now makes $138 every second - in dividends
Berkshire Hathaway earns $4.37B a year from dividends, that’s $364M per month, $12M per day, $498K per hour, and $138 every second without selling a single share.
🟡 Biggest checks: Coca-Cola ($816M), Chevron ($811M), Bank of America ($707M), Apple, AmEx, Kraft Heinz
🟡 Smaller but steady: Occidental, Moody’s, Chubb, Verizon, US Bancorp, Verisign
🟡 Core principle: own businesses with “economic moats” - brands, ecosystems, and pricing power
This constant cash flow gives Buffett unmatched optionality - reinvest, buy back stock, or simply wait.
Compounding isn’t flashy. It’s Coca-Cola paying you for 40 years straight while the rest of the market chases fads.
🥈 Silver’s supply crunch
Unlike past cycles, producers aren’t ramping up despite higher prices. Decades of underinvestment mean there are no major new mines coming online to ease the squeeze.
🟡 Mexico is the “Saudi Arabia” of silver, supplying ~25% of global output
🟡 Production there has been in multi-year decline
🟡 No new projects on the horizon to shift supply
The imbalance isn’t just about silver, other metals face the same shortage. That’s why this mining cycle could run longer and harder than previous ones.
📈 Naval’s playbook for getting rich (without luck)
Naval Ravikant is an angel investor, philosopher, and entrepreneur. He co-founded AngelList, was an early backer of Uber, Twitter, and Coinbase, and built a net worth estimated at $600M.
Beyond money, he’s known for his crisp one-liners that turn into mental models for life.
Naval’s framework is simple and brutal:
stop renting out your time and build leverage around specific knowledge
📈 Japan flips the script
For the first time in 48 years, Japan’s core CPI has moved above the US.
July came in at 3.4% vs 3.1% in the US - one of Japan’s highest readings since the 1980s.
Core inflation has now sat above the BoJ’s 2% target for 40 straight months. Yields followed: the 30-year JGB just hit 3.24%, the highest ever.
After decades of deflation talk, Japan is now exporting inflation, and staring down a restructuring it’s avoided for half a century.
🐻 Peter Schiff does it again
In 2018, he warned Bitcoin could fall to $3,800. Yesterday, he said the next stop is $75K.
🟡 BTC dropped below $109K, down 13% in two weeks
🟡 Schiff calls for $75K as the next target, just under MSTR’s average cost
🟡 Same man once said even $750 would be “expensive”
Some things never change: Bitcoin climbs, Schiff stays bearish, and the market keeps ignoring him, until one day it doesn’t.
📈 False breakouts and liquidity traps
A breakout isn’t confirmed by price alone, it’s confirmed by liquidity.
The common pattern:
🟡 Price breaks a key level with high volume → everyone piles in
🟡 Retrace happens on thinner volume → looks harmless at first
🟡 Positions unwind fast → reversal wipes out late buyers
What’s really happening: large players use the breakout to unload size into eager breakout traders. Once that liquidity is absorbed, the move has no fuel, and price collapses.
False breakouts matter because they show who’s trapped. When volume and follow-through don’t align, it’s often a signal of smart money exiting, not entering.
Lesson: watch the quality of volume, not just the candles. A clean breakout without sustained liquidity is often the setup for the next dump.
💠 AMD vs Nvidia — AI divergence
AMD reported Q2 data center revenue of $3.2B yesterday, up just 14% YoY, not much in an AI market chasing exponential growth.
🟡 Nvidia earnings due today
🟡 Street looking for $45B+ revenue
🟡 $40B+ from data centers, +50% YoY
AMD is steady, Nvidia is parabolic.
Tonight’s print is more than one stock, it’s a stress test for the whole AI trade.
The market doesn't care about your dreams.
It rewards your skills.
You can complain or you can learn.
Only one pays.
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The new CEO of Target started as an intern in 2003.
Incredible.
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