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🔥Classic Market Comedy
Every setup looks perfect… right before it wrecks whoever jumped in.
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🥇Gold vs 🥈 Silver
Silver has ripped +16% since April while gold slipped slightly.
At the same time, gold derivatives and mining explorers climbed ~30%.
🟡 Investors are moving up the risk curve within metals
🟡 Early-stage miners are catching strong bids
🟡 Clear signs of a long-term mining bull market forming
The shift isn’t just about spot prices - it’s about capital flowing deeper into the metals ecosystem.
JUST IN: Elon Musk is pausing his initiative to form the "America Party," choosing instead to focus on his businesses and potentially support Vice President JD Vance for a 2028 presidential run.
• Musk seeks to avoid dividing Republican support by stepping back from third-party plans.
• He has stopped conversations with party organizers.
• Musk spent nearly $300 million in 2024 supporting Donald Trump.
• Republicans value Musk's financial backing for its potential influence.
This decision could enhance investor confidence in Musk's companies by keeping his focus on business operations, while maintaining political ties that may support favorable policies.Читать полностью…
📈 Leveraged ETFs hit record highs
Assets in US leveraged equity ETFs have exploded to ~$120B - an all-time high.
That’s 3x more than just 3 years ago.
🟡 Demand for high-risk, high-reward products is surging
🟡 Trading volume in these vehicles has skyrocketed in the last 5 years
Leverage fever is real.
JUST IN: The UK Services CPI increased by 5% year-over-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.8% and last month's figure of 4.7%.
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📖 Atomic Habits for Traders
James Clear’s “Atomic Habits” shows how small actions build big change.
Applied to trading, the lessons are simple but powerful:
🟡 Small habits compound – Success rarely comes from one big win. It’s built on routine: journaling trades, reviewing setups, recording price reactions. Over months, these “boring” steps sharpen instincts and edge.
🟡 Systems beat goals – Chasing goals can feel distant. Instead, design systems that make discipline automatic.
Clear’s loop: cue → craving → response → reward.
Example: keep your trade journal on your desktop, tick it off daily, reward yourself after finishing.
🟡 Identity drives behavior – You trade according to who you believe you are. If you see yourself as “a consistent, profitable trader,” every disciplined action is a vote for that identity. Slip once, it’s an accident. Twice, it’s a habit.
Trading edge doesn’t come from one breakthrough strategy. It comes from stacking small, consistent actions until they become second nature.
JUST IN: Nvidia is creating a new AI chip for China using the latest Blackwell architecture, which will surpass the capabilities of the current H20 model permitted for sale, according to sources.
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💸 The real cost of inflation
Forget the “2%” headline.
Look at what actually happened in the last 5 years:
🟡 Eggs +157%
🟡 Auto insurance +61%
🟡 Fuel oil +58%
🟡 Gas utilities +56%
🟡 Home prices +52%
🟡 Transportation +43%
🟡 Shelter +28%
This is why official CPI feels like fiction.
Markets may price policy, but households live in reality.
Most traders can click buttons.
Few can sit still.
Master that, and you’ve already won half the game.
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JUST IN: The Kremlin announces it will oppose any deployment of Western troops on Ukrainian territory.
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JUST IN: Trump: The war will end when it ends; I can't specify when. Regarding security guarantees, Trump stated that they'll be involved. He also mentioned a commitment to achieving a lasting peace.
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JUST IN: Russia is against any plans involving the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
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At $4.5 trillion, Nvidia's market cap is now $1.5 trillion higher than all of the stocks in the Russell 2000 combined.
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JUST IN: Trump: Big day at the White House. Let's see what the results will be.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump announced plans to lead a movement against mail-in ballots and intends to sign an executive order regarding the 2026 midterm elections. He asserted that U.S. states must follow federal directives.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump promises to stop approvals for wind and solar projects, calling them "the scam of the century."
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JUST IN: Trump called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to step down following her alleged involvement in mortgage fraud. An ally claims she misrepresented two homes as "primary residences" for better rates. He also criticized Fed Chair Powell for damaging the housing market.
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📈 Order Flow Basics
The game is simple: institutions push price between premium (above market) and discount (below market). Everything else builds on that.
🟡 In bullish flow, discount zones hold as support, premiums get ignored.
🟡 In bearish flow, premiums hold as resistance, discounts get ignored.
🟡 A shift only matters after price tags higher-timeframe levels. That’s when breakers or swing failures decide the next leg.
🟡 Respecting levels confirms bias. Disrespecting them signals reversal.
🟡 Use Monthly → Daily and Weekly → 4H to keep alignment.
It’s not about predicting every tick.
Just knowing which side of the curve you’re on.
A lack of self-control is also a form of lacking self-respect.
Respect yourself enough to stick to the promise you’ve made to yourself.
Apply rules and clear entry + trade management model that will assist you making better decisions.
Trust your system more than you trust yourself.
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When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire.
📉📈 Big Tech vs Small Caps
The 5 largest US stocks (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META) are now worth 4.9x more than all small-cap stocks combined, a new record.
🟡 Since 2019, this ratio has tripled, driven by mega-cap tech.
🟡 Gains since then: NVDA +5109%, MSFT +435%, AAPL +463%, AMZN +203%, META +440%.
🟡 In the same period, the Russell 2000 (small caps) rose just 66%.
🟡 For context: at the dot-com bubble peak (2000), the ratio was ~1.5x.
Before the 2008 crisis ~1.0x.
Small caps have never been this overshadowed. The US market is now more concentrated than ever.
📈 Previous Day / Week Highs & Lows
Some of the cleanest levels you can use for bias are simply the previous day’s and week’s highs and lows.
Price always reacts to them - it’s just about how.
🟡 Closes beyond PDH/PWH → continuation likely, next target is new highs.
🟡 Fails to close beyond → expect reversal back inside the range, often targeting the opposite side.
🟡 Inside day → no break, just balance. Sets up expectation for the next move.
🟡 Closes back inside after a break → early sign of reversal, liquidity shift back inward.
The trick: don’t look at these levels in isolation. Use them to frame the bigger narrative.
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JUST IN: Ukraine will agree to purchase $100 billion of American weapons financed by Europe to obtain US security assurances, reports the Financial Times.
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📈 4 charts worth studying on repeat
Markets recycle the same playbook - learn these setups and you’ll spot the next leader before it runs.
🟡 Clean Bases – Flat bases, VCPs, tight consolidations. They look boring, which is why they work. Messy charts = weak conviction.
🟡 Volume Clues – Big spikes on up days, quiet pullbacks on low volume. That’s how institutions load up.
🟡 Theme Alignment – The strongest moves ride strong narratives. Story pulls capital, chart gives the entry.
🟡 Explosive Breakouts – Price leaves the base hard and clean, with 2x+ average volume. No chop, no hesitation.
The ticker changes. The structure doesn’t. Train your eye and the next breakout won’t surprise you.
JUST IN: Zelenskiy visits the White House to meet with Donald Trump.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration reportedly considered acquiring a 10% stake in Intel.
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JUST IN: Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated that it is 'impossible to give up territory' to Russia.
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📉 China’s credit engine stalls
In July, Chinese net new loans fell by ~50B Yuan - the first decline in 20 years.
🟡 Earlier this year, loans were expanding by ~5T Yuan
🟡 The drop came from net repayments, as households and firms avoid new debt
🟡 Signals growing caution and weaker confidence in economic outlook
Credit is the lifeblood of China’s growth model.
When lending dries up, momentum follows.
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📈 IRL vs ERL made simple
Price only does two things: it hunts liquidity outside the range (ERL) or rebalances inside it (IRL).
Once one side is cleared, the draw shifts to the other.
🟡 ERL (External Range Liquidity) – swing highs/lows packed with stops. After they’re taken, focus shifts inward.
🟡 IRL (Internal Range Liquidity) – imbalances and Fair Value Gaps. Once filled, price often looks outward again.
🟡 Cyclical nature – markets don’t move in straight lines. Expansion is followed by rebalancing, swings by mean reversion.
🟡 Invalidation – if IRL fails to offer fair value, the swing that created it becomes the new draw (inversion FVG).
🟡 Fractal principle – works on all timeframes, but cleaner on higher TFs.
The game is simple: ERL → IRL → ERL. Master this flow, and candles stop looking random.