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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: The S&P 500 fell by 0.4%, while the NASDAQ decreased by 0.8%.
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🦶 40 steps in the trader’s journey
Every trader thinks they’ll outsmart the market. The reality is a grind: excitement, pain, false hopes, rules, and finally discipline. Here’s how the journey really unfolds:
🟡 You collect books, courses, and setups. Everything looks like a shortcut to riches.
🟡 You place your first trades, full of confidence.
🟡 You win, then give it back. Reality bites.
🟡 You decide the problem is not enough knowledge. So you collect more.
🟡You change markets, tickers, styles. Surely the grass is greener.
🟡 You try again with a “better system.” It fails.
🟡 Losses sting harder. Doubt creeps in: maybe you can’t trade.
🟡 You start listening to what other traders claim works.
🟡 You try their tricks. You lose again.
🟡 You scrap your style and flip methods completely.
🟡 You search for even more information.
🟡 You trade again and finally see small progress.
🟡 You size up on one “sure bet.” The market takes your money instantly.
🟡 You realize trading will take way more time and effort than you imagined. Many quit here.
🟡 You decide to get serious. You focus on a real methodology.
🟡 You test it. Some trades work, but something still feels missing.
🟡 You realize you need actual rules, not just ideas.
🟡 You pause trading to write and test rules.
🟡 You return with rules. Results improve, but execution still hesitates.
🟡 You tweak, add, and refine your rules as you go.
🟡 You feel close to breaking through.
🟡 You accept full responsibility for results. It’s not the market, it’s you.
🟡 You keep trading. Slowly, you become more consistent.
🟡 You still break your rules sometimes. Results are mixed.
🟡 You go back to research and refine again.
🟡 You build stronger confidence in your rules.
🟡 You trade again. Results improve, but hesitation remains.
🟡 You see clearly that breaking rules destroys performance.
🟡 You realize the enemy is inside you: fear, greed, impatience.
🟡 You work on yourself, not just your charts.
🟡 The market teaches you more about your own psychology with each trade.
🟡 You finally master both method and rules.
🟡 You start making consistent money.
🟡 You get cocky. The market humbles you again.
🟡 You absorb the lesson and adjust.
🟡 You discover smaller sizing tames emotions. Discipline improves.
🟡 You understand risk management is everything. Big losses kill edge.
🟡 You trade small and consistent. Growth compounds.
🟡 Trading gets boring. Rules do the work, not your impulses. Your account grows.
🟡 You make more than you imagined. Money turns into a tool to live the life you wanted.
JUST IN: Reddit is negotiating a content deal related to AI with Google.
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JUST IN: Tesla's 'self-driving' software reportedly struggles with train crossings, according to some owners.
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📈 Stock returns aren’t linear
After bear market lows, the S&P often posts vertical advances - 30%, 50%, even 70% in a single year.
Miss that surge, and you won’t capture the long-term 10% average.
That’s why bottom-timing is such a dangerous game.
📈 Market structure explained
Structure is the backbone of price action. Every new move begins with a swing point, and how price behaves around those swings tells you everything about intent.
🟡 Swing points
Every structure starts from a swing high or swing low. Higher highs and higher lows show strength. Lower highs and lower lows show weakness.
🟡 Breaks that hold
A real break comes with strong volume and acceptance. Price spends time above a broken swing high (or below a swing low) and doesn’t quickly snap back. Continuation confirms the shift.
🟡 Fakeouts
When there’s an initial push with size but no follow-through, the move often reverses fast. This is the “liquidity vacuum” - limits get pulled, and price rips back through weak hands.
🟡 Timeframes
Match structure to your holding period. Intraday trades demand intraday structure. Tracking weekly structure while scalping creates a mismatch that ruins entries and exits.
🟡 Tracking from opens
For short-term trades, daily opens give a clear anchor. Structure mapped from the open provides bias for most of the session and keeps your focus clean.
🟡 Structure changes
Watch for acceptance beyond swing points with volume and liquidations. Failing to hold above or below often signals reversal. Retraces to internal levels are where execution matters.
Structure isn’t prediction. It’s context. It tells you whether the market is accepting a new direction or just running stops before resetting. Trade the acceptance, not the noise.
❕ More leveraged than 2008
Searches for “help with mortgage” are back at crisis levels.
🟡 But unlike 2008, the system today sits on far more leverage and it needs unprecedented stimulus just to keep running.
🟡 Debt, liquidity injections, and bailouts have turned into permanent features, not emergency tools.
The bigger question is what happens when the cost of holding it all up finally breaks something.
Trading isn’t a checklist of “always do this, always do that”
People want trading to be simple, rules they can follow blindly
But it doesn’t work like that, each situation requires context and adaptability
And you can only get there by committing to the craft over a long time
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JUST IN: Unrealized losses on investment securities for US banks hit $395.3 billion in Q2 2025.
• This is approximately 6 times higher than at the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis.
• Marks the 13th consecutive quarter of losses due to persistently high interest rates.
This growing trend in unrealized losses might affect banks' financial stability, putting pressure on stock prices and investor confidence.
JUST IN: The price of spot gold has reached a new high, surpassing $3,700.
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JUST IN: The U.S. is in talks to establish a $5 billion fund aimed at investing in rare earth mineral mining.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump announced he signed Miran documents for a move to the Federal Reserve.
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📈 JP Morgan’s Fed playbook for this week
Traders see several possible outcomes for Powell’s decision and the S&P reaction:
🟡 47.5% probability: dovish 25bp cut, S&P gains 0.5% to 1%
🟡 40% probability: hawkish 25bp cut, S&P trades flat to –0.5%
🟡 7.5% probability: 50bp cut, S&P swings between –1.5% and +1.5%
🟡 4% probability: no change, S&P drops 1% to 2%
🟡 1% probability: hike, S&P falls 2% to 4%
Consensus points to a small cut, but the tone of Powell’s message could matter more than the move itself.
😌 Stoic Secrets for Trading Success
Markets test patience, discipline, and resilience every single day. Stoicism, a philosophy built on clarity and self-mastery, offers traders tools to survive volatility and avoid self-destruction.
Here are ten principles worth living by:
🟡 Focus on what you can control
You can’t control the market, the news cycle, or other traders. You can control your research, your risk management, and your execution. Anchor yourself there.
🟡 Cultivate a growth mindset
Losses aren’t failure, they’re tuition. Keep a journal, extract lessons, and adapt. Each trade becomes a step forward.
🟡 Practice self-discipline
Stick to your plan when emotions flare. Review rules daily, set clear intentions, and don’t let fear or greed dictate entries.
🟡 Embrace discomfort
Volatility, new assets, losing trades - they all sharpen you. Lean into what feels uncomfortable, it expands your skillset.
🟡 Live with purpose and integrity
Trading for money alone leads to reckless choices. Define your deeper “why” and align your actions with it.
🟡 Build resilience
One bad week doesn’t end a career. Detach self-worth from outcomes, learn, reset, and stay in the game.
🟡 Practice gratitude
Gratitude keeps perspective. Wins, losses, even the chance to trade at all - acknowledge them. It strengthens mindset.
🟡 Self-reflection
Review your trades, but also your emotions. Awareness of your own patterns is often the biggest edge.
🟡 Cultivate strong relationships
Even in a solitary craft, community matters. Mentors, peers, and trading circles expand perspective and keep you grounded.
🟡 Focus on long-term goals
Day-to-day noise is a distraction. Sustainable trading comes from compounding disciplined decisions over years, not chasing every quick win.
Trading is more than charts and setups. It’s a battle with yourself. Stoic principles won’t make you rich overnight, but they’ll keep you standing long enough to let skill and discipline pay off.
JUST IN: Powell described today's cut as a risk management cut.
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SUMMARY OF FED DECISION:
1. Fed cuts rates by 25 bps in first rate cut of 2025
2. Median projection shows 50 bps in additional rate cuts for 2025
3. Governor Miran dissents in favor of 50 bps cut today
4. Fed says downside risks to employment have risen
5. 6 Fed officials see no more rate cuts in 2025
6. 9 Fed officials see 2 additional rate cuts in 2025
The Fed is shifting their focus to the labor market.
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JUST IN: Strava is reportedly in discussions with banks about a possible U.S. IPO.
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JUST IN: NVIDIA shares decline by 2.8%.
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JUST IN: CME Group plans to introduce options on Solana and XRP futures.
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BREAKING: China has officially banned companies from purchasing Nvidia's, $NVDA, chips.
Nvidia has become a pawn in the US-China trade war.
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🚨 $2B stablecoins hit Binance
Fresh inflows landed just hours before the FOMC decision.
Stablecoins don’t sit idle.
Someone’s getting positioned for Powell’s mic.
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❕ Every system sucks
Social media makes trading look like perfection - flawless entries, no drawdowns, straight to target.
Gurus hide their losers to sell the fantasy that you can win without pain.
That illusion sends newer traders on a wild hunt for the “system that never loses.”
It doesn’t exist.
If you trade, you will lose. Every edge draws down, every system decays, and every market regime eventually kills what once worked.
Trend followers get chopped when trends stall. Breakout traders get trapped when momentum fades. Mean reversers get steamrolled when volatility expands.
That’s not a flaw - it’s the cost of playing the game.
Risk management is the only antidote. Not to erase losses, but to make them survivable. That’s why traders obsess over position sizing: maximize the edge when the regime supports it, minimize the damage when it doesn’t.
And here’s the paradox - the losses themselves are information. A system that suddenly stops working is telling you the regime is shifting. Losing trades are data, not just pain.
To summarise:
🟡 Losses are inevitable — they are the cost of business, not proof your system is broken.
🟡 Risk management ≠ risk avoidance — size so you can take the next trade.
🟡 Edges decay — a profitable system today can stop working tomorrow.
🟡 Losses can be signals — they often mark regime shifts.
🟡 Discipline and data are the edge — stick with your system long enough to learn when it thrives and when it dies.
The only “perfect system” is survival. Everything else is variance.
📈 The magic of compounding
A $10k investment in the S&P 500 ten years ago would be worth $39k today.
Stretch that same horizon to 50 years, and it grows to nearly $4 million.
That’s the core lesson of compounding: time matters more than timing. The longer you let capital work, the more the curve bends upward.
Markets reward patience - not constant tinkering.
JUST IN: Donald Trump insists he did not yield on the 15% auto tariffs.
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📊 Trump revives six month reporting idea
Trump repeated his old proposal to replace quarterly earnings with reports twice a year. He first asked the SEC to study it in 2018, saying it would cut costs and give companies more flexibility.
🟡 The pitch is simple: fewer filings, less quarter to quarter pressure, more time to build.
🟡 The trade-off is also clear: investors get fewer updates, wider information gaps, and potentially bigger moves when results finally arrive.
This is not policy yet. If it advances, the argument will be cost saving versus transparency. Markets adapt, but uncertainty usually gets priced.
📈 The 45-Minute Model
This is one of the cleanest ways to read US indices at the open. The market gives you 45 minutes of manipulation before the real move, if you know where to look.
🟡 Time window: 9:23–10:08 EST
🟡 Valid setup only if price runs both true opens: 00:00 and 07:30
🟡 Longs: sweep below both opens, then reverse up
🟡 Shorts: sweep above both opens, then reverse down
🟡 Levels: daily/weekly opens, previous highs/lows, equal highs/lows
🟡 Entry: clear iFVGs on 1–3m, not micro gaps
🟡 Objective: liquidity - clean highs and lows get taken first
At premium, it runs the highs then dumps.
At discount, it runs the lows then rips.
The 45-Minute Model isn’t about predicting. It’s about waiting for the trap to spring, then trading the release.
Stop hunting lucky breaks.
Design a daily system you can keep.
Consistency turns effort into outcomes.
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📉 Congressman bets against small caps
Representative Tim Moore disclosed up to $215K in trades on Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF ($TZA).
This ETF delivers triple the inverse performance of the Russell 2000, meaning he profits if U.S. small-cap stocks fall.
The twist?
He sits on the House Financial Services Committee - the same body that shapes economic and market policy.
When policymakers trade against Main Street, it raises more than eyebrows. It raises questions.