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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
📈 Fair Value Gaps: how inefficiency becomes opportunity
Fair Value Gaps, also called imbalances or single prints, form when price moves too fast in one direction. They leave a void on the chart that almost always attracts price back.
🟡 First touch
The initial return to the gap often triggers stops and brings in traders betting on a full fill. This creates liquidity and sets up opportunities to fade the crowd.
🟡 The fill
Once price accepts back into the gap, the chance of continuation to the other side increases sharply. Imbalances work like magnets until they are resolved.
🟡 Timeframe nuance
A gap invisible on a 5m chart may be obvious on the 1h. Consecutive one-sided candles usually reveal higher-timeframe imbalances.
🟡 Single prints and liquidity
Single prints highlight areas of extreme one-sided trading. When price returns, reactions are almost guaranteed. Volume spikes, liquidations, and trapped positions often amplify the move.
Fair Value Gaps are not magic. They are just skipped liquidity. The more violent the imbalance, the stronger the pull to revisit.
The edge comes from knowing when the crowd expects a clean fill and using that expectation to your advantage.
📉 Yields down, commodities up
US 2-year yields are hitting multi-year lows while commodities push toward all-time highs. That combination signals a macro trade-off:
🟡 Cut rates to keep servicing the debt load
🟡 Let inflation run hotter in the process
🟡 Commodities become the release valve, absorbing the pressure
This is what debt monetization looks like - the bond market weakens, real assets reprice stronger. The squeeze isn’t over.
📉 Negative payrolls on the horizon?
In August, 63% of consumers expected higher unemployment within 12 months - the third-highest reading since 2008. Historically, that has been a leading signal for labor market weakness.
🟡 The 3-month average of payrolls may soon flip negative, falling to -50K to -100K.
🟡 July already showed +35K, the weakest since 2020.
🟡 With constant downward revisions, it’s possible the labor market is already contracting.
Today’s NFP will be critical. A negative print would confirm what the indicators are already warning.
Remember: if you can't see something, don't force it.
Patience.
Great trades will come along.
The hard part is trying no to do anything stupid in between them.
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📉 Yield curve steepening: danger signal
The spread between the 2Y and 30Y US Treasuries has blown out to its widest level in years. Every time this curve went from inversion to +1.25% before, it lined up with brutal bear markets.
🟡 2000s tech bust
🟡 2008 global financial crisis
Those were the only two times in history this exact setup preceded negative equity returns. Now the signal is flashing again.
Not a forecast, but a reminder: when the long end demands a bigger premium, it’s often the market whispering about stress ahead.
JUST IN: Apple plans to increase iPhone prices for the first time in seven years, according to Morgan Stanley.
• Apple to raise iPhone 17 prices at the September 9 event.
• The new iPhone 17 Air will feature a thinner design and C1 modem.
• It will come with a $100 premium over the iPhone.
This price increase could impact investor expectations positively, suggesting confidence in consumer demand and potentially boosting Apple's valuation.Читать полностью…
📈 Stocks meet Solana on VOOI
Trading $AAPL, $NVDA, SPX or even Mag7 now works gas-free on Solana. And it runs from the same balance that powers your perps on crypto and RWAs.
🟡 Log in with email, Telegram or EVM
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🟡 Instantly trade tokenized equities and indices alongside $SOL, $JUP, $WIF, $BONK, $PYTH
All-in-one, the way it should be.Читать полностью…
One balance for all markets.
If you want to speed up your progression, you need to make a plan.
Once that is done, you need to follow it with an almost scientific detachment.
This means not wasting your time and money on shit trades that aren't part of it.
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🎲 Trading is probabilities, not predictions
Most traders fail because they try to guess the next move. They want certainty, but markets don’t give it.
Professionals think differently, they build small statistical edges and repeat them over hundreds of trades. Like a casino, they don’t care about the outcome of one spin, they care about the math over time.
Expected Value (EV) is the foundation. A setup with positive EV will make money if traded consistently. Negative EV setups will always lose, no matter how strong your discipline or psychology. The Law of Large Numbers means this edge only appears with enough trades. Risk management and position sizing are what keep you alive long enough for that edge to show.
Key points:
🟡 EV = (Win rate × Avg win) – (Loss rate × Avg loss). Always know this number for your setups
🟡 A high win rate doesn’t guarantee profits — risk/reward balance matters more
🟡 Sample size is everything — variance hides the truth in small numbers
🟡 Risk of Ruin rises exponentially with position size — survival is priority one
🟡 Protect capital. Losses compound against you faster than gains work for you
🟡 Consistency beats flashes of brilliance — compounding rewards patience
The real edge in trading isn’t prediction. It’s math, discipline, and the patience to let numbers play out. Think like the casino, not the gambler.
🍔 The Big Mac Index is flashing a shift
For the first time, Big Macs cost more in developed economies than in developing ones. A simple burger now highlights the widening gap in living costs.
🟡 US prices sit among the highest, alongside Switzerland and the Euro area
🟡 Emerging markets like India, Indonesia, and Malaysia remain far cheaper
🟡 The index shows how currencies and inflation shape purchasing power across borders
Sometimes a burger tells you more about inflation than a central bank speech.
JUST IN: US JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders data released.
• Job openings were 7.181 million, below the forecast of 7.38 million and previous 7.437 million.
• Factory orders fell by 1.3%, matching expectations, after a fall of 4.8% previously.
The lower-than-expected job openings could indicate a cooling in the labor market, potentially influencing monetary policy expectations.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Apple shares increase by over 4% premarket after BofA raises its price target.
• Analyst Wamsi Mohan increased the price target to $260.
• The Buy rating was maintained by BofA.
• The DOJ-Google antitrust outcome deemed a “win for Apple” as it limits Google's exclusive deals.
This positive development for Apple might boost investor confidence and support further stock price appreciation.Читать полностью…
📉 Global long bonds under heavy pressure
This year has been brutal for sovereign debt, with 30Y bonds in Japan, Germany, and France posting double-digit losses. Investors are demanding higher yields as fiscal risks rise.
🟡 Japan 30Y: –14.9% YTD
🟡 Germany 30Y: –11.8%
🟡 France 30Y: –9.3%
🟡 Canada 30Y: –7.4%
🟡 UK 30Y: –3.3%
🟡 China 30Y: –2.6%
🟡 US Treasuries 30Y: +1.0%
Global bond markets are flashing stress, but Treasuries remain the relative safe haven.
President Trump has asked China's President Xi to pass on his "warmest regards" to Putin and Kim Jong Un as they "conspire against the US."
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JUST IN: Trump argued that stock markets desire tariffs, warned that removing them might reduce the U.S. to a third world country, and claimed a tariff ruling against the U.S. could involve returning trillions. He emphasized no legal basis for a ruling against the tariffs and called for a substantial rate cut.
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❕RRP drops to lowest since 2021
Demand for the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility fell to just $21B, the weakest level in over 4 years.
🟡 Usage has collapsed by $2.5T since Dec 2022
🟡 Down another $440B since June 2025
🟡 Institutions are pulling cash to buy the flood of new T-bills
Excess liquidity is drying up as deficit spending soaks up capital. Markets are losing one of their biggest cushions.
📈 Mastering NFP Week
NFP drops on the first Friday of each month at 8:30am. The algorithm is designed to build liquidity both above and below price before the release, so the event has fuel to attack and offset.
🟡 Monday to Wednesday are the safest days to trade. Liquidity builds in these ranges.
🟡 Thursday is low probability - unless the setup is obvious.
🟡 Friday is best traded at least 30 minutes after the release, when the manipulation move is usually done.
NFP Friday often takes out the Wednesday or Thursday range high/low before reversing. The edge comes from waiting for the trap to spring and then trading with the follow-through.
Patience pays. Let the market show its hand before you move.
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📖 10 books that teach more than an MBA
An MBA costs two years and up to $200K. These books cost a fraction of that but give you lessons you can apply immediately in business and investing.
🟡 The Personal MBA — a crash course in value creation, marketing, sales, finance and systems thinking. Cuts out theory, focuses on practical frameworks.
🟡 The Wall Street MBA — explains accounting, valuation and finance in plain English. Helps you read statements and understand what really drives business.
🟡 The Lean Startup — the build–measure–learn loop, MVPs and how to reduce wasted time and capital when building something new.
🟡 $100M Offers — Alex Hormozi’s framework for creating offers so good customers feel dumb saying no.
🟡 $100M Leads — how to attract and convert clients systematically: content, outreach, ads.
🟡 $100M Money Models — structuring and scaling businesses for long-term profitability.
🟡 The E-Myth Revisited — why most small businesses fail. Teaches you to build systems so the company doesn’t rely only on the founder.
🟡 Blue Ocean Strategy — how to escape bloody competition and create uncontested markets.
🟡 Good to Great — based on decades of research, explains why some companies outperform for decades.
🟡 The Innovator’s Dilemma — why even the biggest companies fail when disruption arrives, and how to avoid that trap.
Together these books give you a full spectrum: from building products, scaling and financing them, to defending against disruption.
Unlike many MBAs heavy on theory, they’re written by people who’ve built and scaled businesses in the real world.
💰The US Treasury is buying back another $2B of its own debt.
Call it QE without the Fed, a quiet way to support bond markets while deficits keep climbing.
It’s a reminder that even Washington is now playing both sides of the trade: issuing record supply and retiring it at the same time.
📊 4 signs sellers are running out of power
Markets don’t turn just because price looks “cheap”.
They turn when selling pressure breaks down.
🟡 Exhaustion — sellers keep pushing lower, but each drop has less force. The lows get weaker until buyers step in.
🟡 Liquidation cascade — aggressive forced selling hits a wall. Once the liquidations are done, price snaps back hard.
🟡 Absorption — every sell order gets eaten by limit buys. Supply is there, but demand is stronger.
🟡 Depletion — sellers simply run out of fuel. With no more supply, even small buys move price higher.
Understanding these patterns helps you spot when a downtrend is dying and when the real opportunity starts.
🥇 Gold is rewriting the playbook
The S&P 500 is in one of its strongest bull runs in decades, up +1,650 points in under five months. Yet gold is outshining it, delivering +37% YTD, nearly four times the return of equities.
🟡 Since 2023: gold has doubled, while the S&P gained ~67%
🟡 Correlation between gold and equities hit a record 0.91 in 2024
🟡 US deficit near $2T keeps flooding the Treasury market with supply
🟡 Bonds are losing their role as safe havens, with term premiums back to 2014 levels
🟡 Central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries for the first time since 1996
🟡 Long-term inflation expectations are creeping higher as markets doubt the Fed’s 2% target
This is a structural shift. Gold is no longer just a crisis hedge, it’s replacing Treasuries as the global reserve anchor. Central banks have already moved, retail and institutions are following.
The lesson is clear: in a world of deficits, inflation, and fiscal strain, the market is quietly re-pricing what “safe haven” really means.
JUST IN: France imposes a €325 million fine on Google.
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JUST IN: Trump suggests that tariffs could potentially one day replace the income tax.
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JUST IN: The US unemployment rate now exceeds job openings for the first time since April 2021.
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💵 Another $100B in T-bills hits the market
The U.S. Treasury is auctioning a record $100B in 4-week bills this week. Every sale pushes supply higher, and demand is being tested as deficits balloon.
🟡 Federal debt is now approaching $40T
🟡 The annual deficit is running near $2T
🟡 Short-term issuance is breaking records month after month
This is the quiet engine of markets: constant refinancing of short-term debt. It keeps liquidity moving today but compounds rollover risk tomorrow. The bigger the stack of bills, the more sensitive the system becomes to shifts in rates or demand.
Short-dated Treasuries may look “risk-free” on the surface, but they are also the canary in the fiscal mine.
✅ Charlie Munger’s investing checklist
Charlie Munger was Warren Buffett’s long-time partner at Berkshire Hathaway and one of the sharpest thinkers in investing. He built his success on a set of principles that stayed consistent for decades.
🟡 Risk: always demand a margin of safety and never confuse luck with skill
🟡 Allocation: put real capital to work only when the odds are clearly in your favor
🟡 Patience: compounding takes time but it is the strongest force in finance
🟡 Independence: think for yourself and avoid following the crowd
🟡 Humility: stay inside your circle of competence and admit mistakes quickly
🟡 Preparation: read widely, build mental models, and be ready when opportunity comes
Munger’s checklist is a reminder that successful investing is not about constant action.
It is about discipline, clear thinking, and the willingness to wait until the right moment to act with conviction.
Look at some of the greatest traders who ever lived.
Across the board you'll see this almost crazy ability to just not give up.
And that's what is required to succeed.
Failure shouldn't scare you.
You should learn to dance with it.
You should allow it to mold you.
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JUST IN: Alphabet stock, $GOOGL, rises over +5% following a court decision allowing the company to retain ownership of Google Chrome.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump mentions he has discovered "interesting things" regarding the Ukraine conflict, which he plans to disclose soon.
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