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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
Fed week ahead
On Wednesday the Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time in 2025. Labor market weakness gives the cover, but the cut comes with the S&P 500 at record highs.
• Valuations now exceed Dot Com and 1929 peaks
• GDP growth above 3 percent and core CPI at 3.1 percent
• Labor market showing cracks with jobs plentiful index at lowest since 2021
History shows that when cuts come near highs the S&P 500 is higher one year later every time, with average gains of 13.9 percent. The long term still looks supported, especially with easier policy adding fuel to inflation and the AI cycle. Gold and Bitcoin have already been reflecting that.
The short term is different.
Markets have already priced in a 25bp cut, so the decision itself is unlikely to bring a bullish surprise. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts by 50bp it would shock markets, but otherwise the risk is that the first move is met with selling. Much will depend not on the cut itself but on what Powell signals in the press conference.
JUST IN: Polish President Karol Nawrocki has approved NATO troop deployment in Poland for the Eastern Sentry operation.
• Announced by National Security Bureau on Sunday.
• Decision aligns with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's strategy.
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Outwork them.
Outlast them.
That’s how you win.
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There are no shortcuts in trading.
No magic indicator, no secret strategy.
The only path is hard work, patience, and mastering yourself.
The chart won’t change until you do.
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The job you choose becomes the life you live.
Choose wisely.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump is prepared to impose major sanctions on Russia contingent upon unanimous action by NATO nations.
• Sanctions are tied to stopping oil purchases from Russia.
• NATO considering placing 50% to 100% tariffs on China.
• Tariffs aimed to end the war in Russia and Ukraine.
• China's influence over Russia is a target for disruption through these tariffs.
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If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you are going to get."
🧠 7 Mindset Shifts That Turn Losses Into Lessons
Most blow-ups don’t come from one bad trade. They come from the trader who never learned how to lose well. Losses are the tuition fee of this game, the only question is whether you actually learn from them.
🟡 Accept reality
Losses are line items, not verdicts. Define your invalidation before entry so a red trade is just the plan doing its job.
🟡 Focus on process
Judge days by “did I follow rules” rather than PnL. Outcomes are noisy; execution quality is the only metric you control.
🟡 Study setups
After a loss, tag the cause: structure, timing, or context. Ask what would have kept you out or improved risk-reward, then write that into your checklist.
🟡 Detach ego
You are not your last trade. Reduce size after a hit, avoid revenge clicks, and let the next trade earn its risk with a clean read.
🟡 Track patterns
Journal entries, exits, emotions, and screenshots. Recurring leaks—chasing, moving stops, early exits—become obvious once they’re written down.
🟡 Protect capital
Small, controlled losses are tuition. Cap risk per trade, set a daily max draw, and stop for the day when it’s hit. Survival compounds.
🟡 Play the long game
Edges show over a series, not a single outcome. Think in months and quarters, not minutes and candles.
The traders who last don’t avoid losses - they convert them into rules. Treat every red trade as paid training and the account starts working for you, not against you.
JUST IN: Donald Trump announced plans to investigate Soros.
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JUST IN: The dollar may weaken due to expected Fed rate cuts.
• ING's Chris Turner predicts that rate cuts could lower funding costs and lead to more hedging against depreciation.
• Markets are projecting a 93% probability of a 25 basis points cut on September 17.
• 71 basis points are expected by the end of 2025 and 142 basis points by the end of 2026.
The anticipated rate cuts are generally bearish for the US dollar and could be bullish for risk assets.
📈 The four phases of every market move
Price doesn’t move randomly. Every cycle plays out in four phases, and learning to recognize them means you stop fighting the market and start flowing with it.
🟡Expansion
This is when price moves strongly in one direction. Market bias becomes clear, and displacement candles confirm order flow. The crowd feels momentum and piles in.
🟡Retracement
After the push comes the pullback. Price rebalances inefficiencies and offers discounts or premiums. This is where patience pays, because entries here carry better risk-reward while impatient traders get shaken out.
🟡Consolidation
Price starts ranging, trapped between highs and lows. Liquidity builds and participants get bored or overtrade. Smart money waits, preparing for the next expansion.
🟡Reversal
Trend continuation fails, structure shifts, and the previous expansion’s direction is broken. What looked like strength turns into weakness, and the cycle begins again in the opposite direction.
Once you train your eye to spot these phases, you stop treating every move as noise. Master it, and the market feels less like chaos and more like a language you finally understand.
🍅 Tomato Takedown is live!
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🍅Throw tomatoes, smash bosses and grow the prize pool.
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📉 Why Drawdown Matters More Than ROI
Traders love ROI because it looks impressive. But ROI is only half the story. The other half is drawdown, and that is what decides whether you can actually survive the strategy.
Here are the key lessons:
🟡 ROI is the dream, drawdown is the reality
ROI shows profit relative to capital. It is easy to market because it appeals to greed. But it ignores the journey. A strategy that ends up 80 percent for the year but dropped 60 percent along the way is untradeable for most people.
🟡 Drawdown is the survival test
Drawdown measures how much your account fell from peak to trough. Fifteen percent hurts but is tolerable. Forty percent starts to break confidence. Sixty percent wipes out most traders regardless of the eventual recovery.
🟡 Recovery math is brutal
Losses grow geometrically. Lose 10 percent, you need 11 percent back. Lose 50 percent, you need 100 percent. Lose 70 percent, you need 233 percent. ROI doesn’t show this climb, but drawdown makes it clear.
🟡 Psychology is stronger than math
ROI appeals to greed. Drawdown forces you to confront fear. And in real time, fear wins. Traders rarely abandon systems because ROI is too low. They quit because the drawdowns feel unbearable.
🟡 Ask the right questions
When you evaluate a strategy, don’t just ask about ROI. Ask what the maximum drawdown was, how long recovery took, what capital was needed to endure it, and whether you could personally stay in the trade through that stretch.
ROI belongs in spreadsheets.
Drawdown belongs in real life.
ROI tells you what is possible.
Drawdown tells you what it costs.
The truth is simple: profit potential gets attention, but drawdown decides survival. The traders who last are not the ones chasing the highest ROI, but the ones who respect the depth of the fall and prepare to endure it.
JUST IN: China is bearing an average tariff of 52%, and the Chinese government is absorbing most of this cost.
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JUST IN: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year is reported at 2.9%.
• Forecast was 2.9%.
• Previous value was 2.7%.
This data aligns with expectations and could stabilize investor sentiment regarding inflation concerns.Читать полностью…
Just quality over quantity
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🚨 $7.3 TRILLION 🚨
That’s how much is sitting in money market funds right now.
When the Fed cuts rates next week, that cash mountain will be forced to look for new places to store value.
Everyone wants profitability.
But nobody wants to wait.
The truth is most traders blow up not because they can’t trade, but because they can’t sit still.
Time is the edge you refuse to use.
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Make a plan & trade your plan.
When you made that plan, you were in a rational mindspace.
But many times the market will unground you when that money is tugging at your emotions.
Your mind will lie to you in an attempt to avoid pain.
Your plan is the truth.
Trust it.
Don’t break it.
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Trading is the most competitive game on Earth.
Act accordingly.
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Most traders burn out trying to catch every intraday move.
Swing trading shifts the focus to bigger timeframes, fewer setups, and cleaner signals.
Less stress, less noise, more time to think.
And often better results.
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Our body is meant for movement and the mind is meant to be still.
You feel like shit because your body is still and your mind keeps wandering.
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JUST IN: Pfizer and Moderna stocks drop significantly following reports that US officials intend to associate COVID-19 vaccines with the deaths of 25 children.
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💵 Global liquidity hits new highs
The global broad money supply rose +9.3% YoY in July, reaching a record $140T. This covers 169 countries and 99% of world GDP.
🟡 Since January, USD money supply alone is up +$10T
🟡 Since 2020, global money supply has grown +$40T
🟡 CAGR since 2000 stands at +7%
The world is awash with liquidity. Every major cycle in assets, from equities to Bitcoin, eventually ties back to this chart.
JUST IN: Donald Trump gives an interview on Fox News.
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📉 Wall Street Buys While Main Street Sells
Retail investors have flipped from steady buyers to net sellers, just as institutions are quietly ramping up their bids.
🟡 Retail sold $700M of US equities last week, the 2nd sale in 3 weeks after 36 weeks of uninterrupted buying
🟡 Their 4-week average of sales has climbed to $200M
🟡 Institutions bought $1.1B last week, marking 6 straight weeks of inflows — the longest streak since the 2022 bear market
🟡 Their 4-week average of purchases is now at $1.7B
When retail starts cashing out after a long run, it’s often the moment big money steps in. History tends to reward patience on the institutional side.
If the edge was fully in the strategy, everyone learning it would be banking.
This is never the case.
The edge is in you as the trader.
It always has been and always will be.
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🥈 Silver squeeze is heating up
Silver lease rates in the UK jumped above 5% for the fifth time this year. Normally they sit close to zero, so the spike signals real supply stress.
🟡 The gap between NY futures and London spot widened to $1.20/oz
🟡 Comex warehouse inventories hit their highest level since 1992
🟡 Investor demand is pouring into ETFs and physical supply
Silver demand is historically high, but the market structure is flashing signs of tightness. When lease rates move like this, it usually signals turbulence ahead.
💵 Cash is not king
A Fidelity study shows where Americans park their money:
🟡 Cash and money market funds: 71%
🟡 Individual stocks: 64%
🟡 Mutual funds: 43%
🟡 CDs: 38%
🟡 Crypto: 31%
🟡 ETFs: 26%
🟡 Real estate: 25%
🟡 Bonds: 19%
🟡 Precious metals: 13%
🟡 Alternatives: 7%
🟡 Options: 5%
Holding most of your portfolio in cash is like handing the Fed your wallet and saying: “please burn it.”
Cash isn’t king. It’s kindling. And inflation is the match.
JUST IN: The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2.00%, aligning with both the forecast and the previous rate.
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