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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: The White House announced that Trump will meet with China's Xi on Thursday during his Asia trip.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration is set to launch an investigation into China's compliance with the 2020 trade deal, as reported by the New York Times.
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⭕️ How Smart Money Rotates Through the Business Cycle
Markets don’t move in straight lines — they breathe in cycles. Each phase of the business cycle reshapes where capital flows, who wins, and who quietly bleeds out. Understanding this rotation is what separates investors from tourists.
🟡 Early Cycle — The Rebound
This is the “hope” phase. Recession fears fade, liquidity returns, and policy stays easy. Growth-sensitive sectors come alive first — tech, real estate, consumer discretionary, and industrials. These are the parts of the economy most beaten down before the recovery, so they rebound hardest once money starts flowing again.
Investors here aren’t chasing safety; they’re chasing momentum. It’s where risk appetite reignites.
🟡 Mid Cycle — The Peak
Optimism turns into confidence. Growth is strong, inflation stable, and credit still cheap. But markets start getting crowded. Financials and tech tend to lead as profits stay high and capital markets hum along. This is often the longest part of the expansion — and where “buy the dip” still works, but just barely.
Smart money begins rotating quietly out of the hottest names, preparing for what comes next.
🟡 Late Cycle — The Cooldown
Growth slows, inflation bites, and central banks tighten. The tone shifts from expansion to preservation. Defensive and inflation-resistant sectors take over — energy, materials, healthcare, and staples.
This phase is about protecting gains, not finding new ones. It’s when investors rediscover words like “dividend yield” and “cash flow.”
🟡 Recession — The Reset
Eventually, the system overheats and corrects. Spending drops, earnings shrink, and valuations reset. Here, capital hides in utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare — the most boring names suddenly become the most loved. These sectors don’t soar, but they survive, which in this phase is what outperformance looks like.
Every cycle is a rotation of belief: from hope, to greed, to caution, to fear and back again. The assets don’t change; the psychology does.
If you can learn to move with the cycle instead of fighting it, you stop guessing tops and bottoms and start understanding how money actually moves.
JUST IN: Chinese state-owned oil giants have suspended their purchases of Russian oil transported by sea, due to fears of Western sanctions, sources report.
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🤖 OpenAI has now:
🟡 Become the world's most valuable private company
🟡 Launched an attempt to compete with Chrome
🟡 Signed $500 billion Stargate deal
🟡 Signed $100 billion Nvidia deal
🟡 Signed $100 billion AMD deal
🟡 Signed $25 billion Intel deal
🟡 Signed $20 billion TSMC deal
🟡 Signed $13 billion Microsoft deal
🟡 Signed $10 Billion Oracle deal
🟡 Signed "Multi-Billion Dollar" Broadcom deal
The world's fastest growing "non-profit" is becoming the backbone of large cap tech.
🥇Gold’s Biggest Drop in a Decade
Gold just had its largest one-day fall since 2013 — down 5.7%, a move so extreme it statistically happens once every 240,000 days.
🟡 Silver fell even harder, down 9%, erasing nearly $3T in combined market value with gold in just 24 hours.
🟡 This came after both metals posted their strongest rally in over 40 years — gold +70% YTD, silver +85%. A correction was inevitable.
🟡 Flows were the red flag: over $17.7B poured into gold and silver funds in two weeks, one of the largest inflow streaks ever.
🟡 Gold was up for nine straight weeks, a streak that has always ended in a pullback — historically around -13% two months later.
🟡 Despite the crash, fundamentals remain bullish. Inflation metrics are quietly rising, central banks keep buying, and 25% of institutional investors still call “long gold” their favorite trade — ahead of AI stocks.
🟡 Meanwhile, U.S. debt is nearing $38T, global money supply just passed $140T, and fiat confidence continues to fade.
The market calls it panic.
Gold calls it recalibration.
By the time everyone starts speaking about the "debasement trade"
It's probably over
Yes, debasement is real, and will very likely hurt you over a 20-30 year period
But people overestimate the time frames these trends take to play out
Remember the U.S. dollar collapse/BRICS narrative 2 years ago?
Everyone was convinced the dollar would lose its reserve currency status
Yeah, it still might happen, but over decades, not months
The “debasement trade” isn’t wrong, it’s just crowded
By the time everyone piles in, it’s already priced in
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JUST IN: The typical down payment by US homebuyers rose 6.1% year-over-year in August, hitting a record $70,000. This reflects almost a 20% increase since January, with the median down payment tripling over the past six years and now representing 18.6% of the purchase price, the highest level recorded.
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📊 The weekly review that actually makes you better
Most traders skip reflection, they just move on to the next setup. But that’s where real improvement hides.
This simple framework splits your review into three parts: winning trades, losing trades, and overall performance.
🟡 For winning trades, ask if you’d take the same setup again without knowing the outcome. If not, it wasn’t skill — it was luck.
🟡 For losing trades, focus on logic and process. Did you follow your plan, or did emotion creep in?
🟡 In overall performance, look for patterns. What strengths repeated? What mistakes keep showing up?
Consistency doesn’t come from more trades. It comes from studying the ones you’ve already taken.
JUST IN: Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers surged 121% week-over-week to 7,244 in the week ending October 11, marking the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. The Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, but state-level data remains available.
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JUST IN: South Korea aims to finalize a trade deal with the US during the APEC summit, according to Koo.
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JUST IN: The USTR has confirmed that a Trump-Xi meeting on China trade remains on schedule, according to CNBC.
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📉 What goes up, must come down
After a messy few weeks with U.S.–China tensions, bank worries, and a government shutdown, markets finally caught a breath.
Yet the big picture hasn’t changed: the Fed’s still easing, jobs are holding up, and the bull cycle is intact.
🟡 The S&P 500 is testing its uptrend from May but still sits near all-time highs.
🟡 Sentiment swung hard into “extreme fear,” just as seasonality turns positive into year-end.
🟡 The VIX spiked past 27, then collapsed 28% intraday — one of the biggest volatility drops in decades.
🟡 Historically, similar VIX crashes have marked local bottoms, with 3-month returns averaging +9%.
In short: the selloff looks more like a shakeout than a breakdown. Volatility phases tend to end with panic and that panic may have just passed.
JUST IN: OpenAI has become the world's most valuable private company, with a valuation of $500 billion.
• This figure is 3.5 times higher than Spotify's market value of $144 billion.
• It is nearly equal to Netflix's valuation of approximately $520 billion.
• OpenAI projects its annual revenue to reach $13 billion.
This elevated valuation highlights surging investor confidence in AI innovation, which could enhance market sentiment for AI-related stocks while intensifying competitive pressures on entertainment giants like Netflix and Spotify.
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JUST IN: Trump accuses Schumer and the radical left of holding the government hostage.
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📊 Auction Market Theory — Simplified Guide
Auction Market Theory (AMT) helps traders understand how price finds balance between buyers and sellers. It’s built around the idea that every market is an ongoing auction — price moves up when demand is strong, and down when supply dominates.
Instead of just showing candles, AMT uses Market Profile to map where trading activity actually happens. It visualizes how much volume was traded at each price level over a specific period — revealing where the market sees “fair value.”
The key zones you’ll see:
🟡 Value Areas — zones that contain roughly 70% of total trading volume, marking the range where price found balance.
🟡 POC (Point of Control) — the exact price with the most trading activity; this is where the majority agreed on fair value.
These levels help traders spot where interest is concentrated and where price may return. They also make it easier to read market behavior over time, showing areas of high and low participation.
Market Profile helps you:
🟡 Identify balance and imbalance zones
🟡 See how buyers and sellers interact over time
🟡 Understand which prices attract volume and which get ignored
Market Profile turns random price movement into structure.
It helps you see where the market is fair, where it’s fighting, and where the next move might start.
JUST IN: Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that strikes penetrating deep into Russia would represent a major escalation, adding that Russia's response would be serious.
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JUST IN: JPMorgan anticipates that the Fed will end its quantitative tightening program next week.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration is increasing the tariff-rate quota for Argentina to 80,000 metric tons of beef imports in an effort to reduce prices, the White House announced.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump is set to deliver an announcement at 3 PM in Washington.
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JUST IN: New-home prices in China's 70 major cities declined 0.41% month-over-month in September, marking the sharpest drop in 11 months and the 29th consecutive monthly decrease. Used-home prices fell 0.64% MoM, the largest decline in a year, as all 70 cities recorded reductions.
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JUST IN: The total US debt has officially exceeded $38 trillion for the first time in history, reflecting a $500 billion surge this month or about $23 billion daily.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration is exploring a plan to limit exports to China from anywhere in the world if those goods are made with or include U.S. software, sources report.
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🎅 The year-end rally isn’t magic, it’s mechanics
Every October, markets look chaotic, then suddenly flip. It’s not a mystery. It’s the same yearly pattern powered by fund behavior, buybacks, and inflows.
🟡 October cleanup: Around October 20, mutual funds managing $2T rebalance and dump underperformers before fiscal year-end. That short-term volatility sets the stage for a rally.
🟡 Performance chasing: 78% of active managers are behind the S&P 500 this year, forcing them to pile into winners like NVDA and TSLA to catch up.
🟡 Window dressing: Funds “decorate” portfolios before reports, selling losers and buying recent winners, driving demand higher.
🟡 Buyback comeback: Corporate buybacks restart after earnings blackouts (around Oct 24), adding steady buying pressure.
🟡 Passive inflows: 401(k)s and index funds keep injecting billions weekly, creating constant demand regardless of sentiment.
Put it all together, and you get the most reliable rally of the year — the Santa Claus Rally. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged +1.3% in the last five trading days of the year and first two of January.
It’s not hope driving the market up, it’s flows, structure, and incentives.
JUST IN: Argentina has launched an anti-dumping investigation into certain Chinese motors.
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📈 History says more upside ahead
The S&P 500 has set 90 new all-time highs over the past two years — 57 in 2024 and 33 so far this year.
But data shows that new highs aren’t usually the end of the move, they’re often the middle.
🟡 Since 1953, the index has gained an average of +1.6% in the next 3 months after hitting an ATH.
🟡 Over 6 months, the average return rises to +4.1%.
🟡 One year later, it’s +8.4% on average.
Historically, record highs haven’t marked tops, they’ve signaled momentum. The market tends to reward patience after euphoria.
Becoming profitable is hard.
Clocking in for 50 years is harder.
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JUST IN: China's rare earth exports declined 31% month-over-month in September to 4,000 tonnes, marking the lowest level since February.
• This represents the third consecutive monthly drop.
• Year-to-date exports are up 13% year-over-year.
• The figures precede China's newly expanded export controls on these materials.
The export decline, combined with tightening controls, could constrain global supply of rare earths essential for electronics and renewable energy tech, potentially driving up prices and influencing investor sentiment in related sectors.
JUST IN: Russia has restated its previous conditions for peace in Ukraine in a diplomatic message sent to the US over the weekend, sources report.
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