Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 17:30

⏰ 75 weeks from bottom to halving. 75 weeks from halving to top?

If the cycle symmetry holds, the local top lands on... September 29, 2025.

🟡 Past cycles: bottom to halving = 75–77 weeks

🟡 Then: halving to top ≈ same or slightly shorter

🟡 This cycle? Bottom was mid-March 2023. Halving was April 2024.

🟡 Add 75 weeks = late September 2025

🟡 Right now: 60 weeks in. 15 to go.

Nothing is guaranteed.
But the symmetry is unsettlingly clean.
And markets love symmetry.
Until they don’t.

Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 16:20

JUST IN: Traders on Kalshi are increasingly betting on a meeting between Donald Trump and Putin in 2025, with odds rising from 50% to 84% recently. This increase follows reports that Trump is willing to meet the Russian leader, suggesting possible diplomatic developments.

Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 15:10

⚙️ The great capital reshoring begins

Trillions in corporate investments are flooding back into the US — and it's not just a headline.

🟡 Apple plans to invest $600B in the US over 4 years
🟡 New facilities in Texas and Michigan, plus 20,000 new jobs
🟡 Stargate AI project brings $500B and 200,000 jobs
🟡 Nvidia and TSMC add $200B and $100B in AI infra buildout

The capital cycle is shifting. From offshore cost-cutting to domestic dominance.
Next up: who controls the rails of AI.

Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 10:30

✍️ Liquidity Trading 101

✅Step 1: Spot the chop

✅Step 2: Wait for the breakout (not your feelings, the price)

✅Step 3: Entry = OB + FVG (aka overlap of fancy acronyms)

✅Step 4: Retest. SL above range. Aim for the swing low.

Because sometimes, patience is the real alpha.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 21:53

JUST IN: Donald Trump signed an order to simplify the inclusion of private assets in 401(k) retirement plans, potentially offering more investment options.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 20:02

JUST IN: Elon Musk claims that OpenAI will surpass Microsoft.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 17:35

📊 What is TPO (Time Price Opportunity) and why it matters

TPO is a foundational concept in Market Profile — a tool used by serious traders to understand where and when the market spent time.

Instead of just looking at price or volume, TPO shows how long the market accepted a price.

🟡 Each letter = one 30-minute block (A = first 30 min, B = next, etc.)
🟡 The more letters stacked at a level, the more time price spent there
🟡 This reveals “value areas” — zones where the market feels comfortable
🟡 Single prints = rejection zones (price passed quickly, no acceptance)

It’s not about prediction — it’s about seeing where the market is building structure.

TPO charts help identify:
✅ Balance vs imbalance
✅ Areas likely to act as support/resistance
✅ Where large players are likely active

Once you see time as a variable — not just price — your whole map of the market changes.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 15:15

📣 Ray Dalio: “The biggest mistake is assuming tomorrow will look like yesterday”

Dalio predicted Japan’s collapse.
He warned about 2008 before it hit.
Now he sees something bigger coming.

Here’s the core of his thesis:

🟡 The US is nearing the end of a debt supercycle. Debt-to-GDP is at 122%, close to WWII levels.
🟡 Interest payments are exploding. Treasury costs now exceed military spending.
🟡 Central banks are running out of tools. Cuts won’t save growth.
🟡 Political fragmentation is at extremes. Dalio calls it a “soft civil war.”
🟡 US–China tensions aren’t just trade — they’re structural, long-term, and potentially irreversible.

This mix = systemic fragility + global volatility.

So what’s the play ❓
Dalio isn’t hiding in cash.

🟡 He diversifies geographically — betting on multiple systems, not just one.
🟡 He owns “hard” assets: gold, inflation-linked bonds, select equities.
🟡 And despite skepticism, he calls Bitcoin “digital gold” — a store of value in uncertain times.

He’s not bullish on crypto as money.
But he is bullish on crypto as an escape valve — a hedge against fiat failure.

💰 Powered by Startups

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 13:50

JUST IN: Intel shares are down 2.1% premarket after Donald Trump criticizes the Intel CEO, suggesting they are highly conflicted and should resign.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 13:30

JUST IN: Bessent: Trade deals are largely completed.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 13:19

JUST IN: Donald Trump is set to sign an order enabling alternative assets to be included in 401(k) plans, according to a White House official.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 10:31

📊 Buyback boom hits new record

US companies announced $166B in stock buybacks last month — the highest July ever recorded.

🟡 Beats the 2006 record of $88B
🟡 Triple the 2021–2023 average
🟡 Year-to-date: $926B in buybacks, already above any full-year record
🟡 Financials and tech are leading the charge

Corporate America isn't waiting for outside validation — they're buying their own future.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 08:31

Your urgency is killing your results.

If you don’t know how to wait, you'll keep giving your profits back to the market.

Understand this and your trading will flip.

💰 Powered by Startups

Trade Watcher

06 August 2025 19:54

📈 How to scale into trades without wrecking them

Most traders ruin good setups by adding too fast, too early, or too big.
The goal isn't to increase exposure — it's to increase clarity.

Here’s what helps:

🟡 Start small and scale only on strength, not weakness
🟡 One add per move is enough — more is chasing
🟡 Each add should be 10–20%, never more
🟡 Never average down — if price dips below entry, the setup is invalid
🟡 Set a firm size cap so emotions don’t override logic

Good scaling is boring, structured, and unemotional.
If it feels exciting — you're probably doing it wrong.

Trade Watcher

06 August 2025 17:56

Trump hits India with 50% tariffs over Russian oil

Trump just signed an executive order raising tariffs on Indian imports to 50% officially in response to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil.

This is the first time the U.S. has economically punished a country for supporting Russia.

What this changes:
• India is one of Russia’s top oil buyers. This move aims to choke off that cashflow
• It puts pressure on India’s currency and inflation outlook
• It signals a shift - the U.S. is now targeting partners, not just enemies
• If India refuses to back down, it could strengthen its alignment with Russia and China
• Oil markets could react if India is forced to pivot away from Russian crude

Market impact to watch:
• Bearish pressure on INDA ETF and the rupee
• Possible oil upside if flows from Russia get disrupted
• More volatility for EM and commodity currencies

On the oil chart, we’re seeing a classic PO3 setup - accumulation, manipulation, and now signs of expansion.

And after three years of consolidation, if this breaks out, the move could be sharp and extended.

Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 16:51

JUST IN: President Trump claims tariffs have a "huge positive impact on the stock market," warning of a potential repeat of 1929's Great Depression if a "radical left court ruled against us."

Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 16:10

JUST IN: Ethereum surpasses $4,000 for the first time since December 2024, rising more than 2% intraday.

Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 12:51

💰One chart that explains the entire system

The top 1% now controls over $54 trillion — 468x more than the bottom half of America.

And the gap is still accelerating.

🟡 Since 1976, the top 0.01% have increased their wealth nearly 8x faster than the bottom 50%

🟡 Elon Musk alone holds more wealth than 165 million Americans combined

🟡 The bottom 50% barely register on the chart — and their line stays flat even during bull markets

🟡 Post-2008 QE and low rates fueled the steepest divergence in history

🟡 The top 1% added $20T+ in wealth since 2020. The bottom 50% added… debt

All this while politicians argue about student loans and gas prices.

The real inflation was in asset prices. And it wasn’t evenly distributed.

Trade Watcher

08 August 2025 08:33

You are not your P&L.

You are your process.

Detach from outcomes.

Fall in love with execution.

It’s the only way to play the long game.

💰 Powered by Startups

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 21:32

JUST IN: The White House prepares for Donald Trump to nominate Miran to the Federal Reserve Board.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 19:34

📉 Eli Lilly just had its worst trading day in 25 years

$LLY plunged 14%, wiping out over $80B in market cap — the biggest single-day drop since 2000.

🟡 The selloff followed results from its oral GLP-1 trial (orforglipron)
🟡 Top weight loss was ~12%, below the ~15% Wall Street had priced in
🟡 Some patients quit the trial due to side effects at high doses
🟡 The market expected a clean, injection-free GLP-1 winner — this wasn’t it

Still a giant in the obesity drug race, but today the market reminded everyone: pricing in perfection has consequences.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 16:14

JUST IN: The Trump team supports Fed's Waller's interest in rate cuts due to forecasts and prefers him for Fed Chair.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 14:32

JUST IN: US jobless claims for the week of August 2 reached 226,000, slightly higher than the estimate of 221,000. Continuing claims for the week of July 26 were 1.974 million, exceeding the forecast of 1.950 million.

• Continuing claims increased to 1.974 million.
• Initial jobless claims were higher than predicted.

These figures may influence market sentiment as higher-than-expected claims could signal potential concerns in the labor market, impacting investor confidence.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 13:50

JUST IN: Donald Trump demands that the CEO of Intel step down.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 13:19

JUST IN: The Bank of England reduces its key interest rate to 4% following a 5-4 vote.

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 12:51

📕 ICT made simple (just 80+ acronyms to memorize)

Thinking of going full ICT?

Here’s the cheat sheet.

Save it, forget it, then panic mid-trade trying to recall what FVG or SMT means.

💰 Powered by Startups

Trade Watcher

07 August 2025 08:59

JUST IN: President Trump says reciprocal tariffs have officially taken effect.

Trade Watcher

06 August 2025 21:15

JUST IN: Trump plans to meet with Putin from Russia as early as next week, according to the New York Times.

Trade Watcher

06 August 2025 19:02

JUST IN: Switzerland's president is departing the US without finalizing a trade agreement with Donald Trump.

Trade Watcher

06 August 2025 17:38

JUST IN: India intends to take steps to safeguard its national interests, criticizing US tariffs as "unfair, unjustified, unreasonable."