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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
📊 The weekly review that actually makes you better
Most traders skip reflection, they just move on to the next setup. But that’s where real improvement hides.
This simple framework splits your review into three parts: winning trades, losing trades, and overall performance.
🟡 For winning trades, ask if you’d take the same setup again without knowing the outcome. If not, it wasn’t skill — it was luck.
🟡 For losing trades, focus on logic and process. Did you follow your plan, or did emotion creep in?
🟡 In overall performance, look for patterns. What strengths repeated? What mistakes keep showing up?
Consistency doesn’t come from more trades. It comes from studying the ones you’ve already taken.
JUST IN: Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers surged 121% week-over-week to 7,244 in the week ending October 11, marking the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. The Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, but state-level data remains available.
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JUST IN: South Korea aims to finalize a trade deal with the US during the APEC summit, according to Koo.
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JUST IN: The USTR has confirmed that a Trump-Xi meeting on China trade remains on schedule, according to CNBC.
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📉 What goes up, must come down
After a messy few weeks with U.S.–China tensions, bank worries, and a government shutdown, markets finally caught a breath.
Yet the big picture hasn’t changed: the Fed’s still easing, jobs are holding up, and the bull cycle is intact.
🟡 The S&P 500 is testing its uptrend from May but still sits near all-time highs.
🟡 Sentiment swung hard into “extreme fear,” just as seasonality turns positive into year-end.
🟡 The VIX spiked past 27, then collapsed 28% intraday — one of the biggest volatility drops in decades.
🟡 Historically, similar VIX crashes have marked local bottoms, with 3-month returns averaging +9%.
In short: the selloff looks more like a shakeout than a breakdown. Volatility phases tend to end with panic and that panic may have just passed.
JUST IN: OpenAI has become the world's most valuable private company, with a valuation of $500 billion.
• This figure is 3.5 times higher than Spotify's market value of $144 billion.
• It is nearly equal to Netflix's valuation of approximately $520 billion.
• OpenAI projects its annual revenue to reach $13 billion.
This elevated valuation highlights surging investor confidence in AI innovation, which could enhance market sentiment for AI-related stocks while intensifying competitive pressures on entertainment giants like Netflix and Spotify.
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JUST IN: Trump accuses Schumer and the radical left of holding the government hostage.
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JUST IN: Trump expressed confidence in achieving a favorable outcome in the ongoing negotiation, stating, "We're going to do well in that negotiation." He also noted that China is interested in discussing tariffs.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump announced that he will discuss numerous topics with China's President Xi Jinping in two weeks.
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⏫ The Longer You Hold, The Higher Your Investing Win Rate
Trying to time the market?
The data says you’re better off simply extending your holding period.
Warren Buffet wasn’t joking - patience pays off for S&P 500 investors.
🟡 Over just 1 day, your odds are close to 50/50, almost a coin flip for gains or losses.
🟡 Hold for 1 year, and your chances of making money jump far above the average.
🟡 Stretch that to 10 years: more than 90% of all periods end profitably.
🟡 Stick with it for 20 years? Historically, every single holding period finishes in the green.
Forget chasing the perfect entry. Investing success isn’t about luck - it’s about time in the market, not timing the market.
💰 Gold Miners Are Quietly Printing Cash
When everyone’s busy chasing tech stocks, gold miners are quietly stacking record profits. The market might be underestimating just how much cash these companies are churning out while gold prices hover near all-time highs.
🟡 Free cash flow of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index surged 11x
🟡 Stock prices moved up, but not nearly enough to match the fundamentals
🟡 At current prices, miners are essentially “printing money”
The rally barely scratches the surface. The real gold rush might just be in the miners themselves.
Just For One Month Try This:
🟡 Only one strategy.
🟡 Take only carefully calculated risks.
🟡 Journal all trades fully.
🟡 Focus on 1 quality trade per day.
Trust me, Your whole trading will change.
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JUST IN: US natural gas prices have surged more than 12% today, setting up for their biggest daily gain since July 2022, amid rebounding energy costs fueled by heightened winter demand expectations.
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JUST IN: Trump stated that he could threaten China on additional matters beyond current issues, including airplanes.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that China has been respectful of the US and is paying significant money through tariffs. He mentioned planning to meet Chinese President Xi in South Korea in a couple of weeks to work out a fair trade deal, adding that China could face a 155% tariff if no agreement is reached by November 1.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration is exploring a plan to limit exports to China from anywhere in the world if those goods are made with or include U.S. software, sources report.
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🎅 The year-end rally isn’t magic, it’s mechanics
Every October, markets look chaotic, then suddenly flip. It’s not a mystery. It’s the same yearly pattern powered by fund behavior, buybacks, and inflows.
🟡 October cleanup: Around October 20, mutual funds managing $2T rebalance and dump underperformers before fiscal year-end. That short-term volatility sets the stage for a rally.
🟡 Performance chasing: 78% of active managers are behind the S&P 500 this year, forcing them to pile into winners like NVDA and TSLA to catch up.
🟡 Window dressing: Funds “decorate” portfolios before reports, selling losers and buying recent winners, driving demand higher.
🟡 Buyback comeback: Corporate buybacks restart after earnings blackouts (around Oct 24), adding steady buying pressure.
🟡 Passive inflows: 401(k)s and index funds keep injecting billions weekly, creating constant demand regardless of sentiment.
Put it all together, and you get the most reliable rally of the year — the Santa Claus Rally. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged +1.3% in the last five trading days of the year and first two of January.
It’s not hope driving the market up, it’s flows, structure, and incentives.
JUST IN: Argentina has launched an anti-dumping investigation into certain Chinese motors.
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📈 History says more upside ahead
The S&P 500 has set 90 new all-time highs over the past two years — 57 in 2024 and 33 so far this year.
But data shows that new highs aren’t usually the end of the move, they’re often the middle.
🟡 Since 1953, the index has gained an average of +1.6% in the next 3 months after hitting an ATH.
🟡 Over 6 months, the average return rises to +4.1%.
🟡 One year later, it’s +8.4% on average.
Historically, record highs haven’t marked tops, they’ve signaled momentum. The market tends to reward patience after euphoria.
Becoming profitable is hard.
Clocking in for 50 years is harder.
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JUST IN: China's rare earth exports declined 31% month-over-month in September to 4,000 tonnes, marking the lowest level since February.
• This represents the third consecutive monthly drop.
• Year-to-date exports are up 13% year-over-year.
• The figures precede China's newly expanded export controls on these materials.
The export decline, combined with tightening controls, could constrain global supply of rare earths essential for electronics and renewable energy tech, potentially driving up prices and influencing investor sentiment in related sectors.
JUST IN: Russia has restated its previous conditions for peace in Ukraine in a diplomatic message sent to the US over the weekend, sources report.
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JUST IN: OpenAI plans to announce a new browser called ChatGPT Atlas.
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JUST IN: A White House official confirms there are no plans for a meeting between Trump and Putin in the immediate future.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that an end to Hamas will be fast, furious, and brutal if not otherwise achieved.
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❕ Hold Onto Your Helmets - Markets Are In Trader Territory
The current equities bull market is still young compared to historical cycles, but long-term investment prospects don’t look enticing just yet. The market could be due for a deeper pullback, and major events like a looming Fed policy shift, China’s foggy outlook, and ongoing government shutdowns are keeping long-term positions risky.
🟡 Gold and precious metals: parabolic surge based on fundamentals, but prone to sudden, massive drawdowns. These are now considered “trader territory”, expect volatility and big swings.
🟡 Equities: Rally is fueled by short-term opportunity, not by sustainable long-term value. Room for more upside, but caution is key.
🟡 Crypto: Shifted into investor territory after the recent leveraged wipe-out. With Bitcoin near historic highs and broad crypto strength, long-term conviction is building again.
🟡 Macro: The next major liquidity event may hit in 2026. A dovish Trump Fed is anticipated, possibly lifting all asset classes higher.
Fundamentals and sentiment are diverging. Trade tactically; investing passively might lead you straight into a drawdown. The fog will lift, but be ready for sudden weather changes.
🚨 Black Monday: 38 years since the largest one-day market crash
Today marks 38 years since Black Monday, the biggest one-day stock market crash in history. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 508 points, a massive 22.6% drop, while the S&P 500 declined by 20.5%. In just a few hours, over $500 billion in U.S. market value vanished, triggering a global panic and wiping out roughly $1.7 trillion worldwide.
🟡 What led to Black Monday?
This crash didn’t come without warning. After the 1982 recession, the stock market had been rapidly rising - the Dow had tripled, and in the seven months before the crash, surged another 44%. But by late 1987, valuations were extremely high, trade deficits were growing, inflation was rising, and the U.S. dollar was weakening. The Federal Reserve was raising interest rates, and Treasury Secretary James Baker hinted at devaluing the dollar, further eroding investor confidence. Markets had already fallen almost 10% in the days leading up to the crash.
🟡 The role of technology
One crucial factor was the rise of automated program trading, especially a strategy called portfolio insurance. Designed to limit losses by automatically selling futures as markets declined, it instead created a feedback loop of selling panic. This cascade overwhelmed the New York Stock Exchange’s systems, causing trading halts and outages. Panic spread rapidly, especially in the final hour and a half of trading.
🟡 The Federal Reserve’s response and recovery
The Federal Reserve acted swiftly. Chair Alan Greenspan promised liquidity support, encouraged banks to maintain lending, lowered interest rates slightly, and helped rescue critical financial firms. These quick actions stabilized markets and restored confidence. Remarkably, within two trading days, the Dow had regained more than half its losses, and by mid-1989, markets reached new highs fueled by strong economic fundamentals.
🟡 The lasting legacy
Black Monday changed market structure, the crash led to the introduction of circuit breakers to pause trading during rapid declines. It established investor expectations that the Federal Reserve would intervene during crises, what became known as the “Greenspan put.” Though a dark day in Wall Street history, it proved that resolute policy and solid economic foundations can convert panic into recovery.
Lessons from Black Monday remain highly relevant to today's markets with heightened risks and technological impacts influencing trading dynamics.
JUST IN: Trump has announced plans to visit China sometime fairly early next year.
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JUST IN: Trump warns that there will be a big price to pay if no deal is reached to end the war in Ukraine.
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❕ Hedge funds are sitting on $1.85T in hidden Treasuries
The Fed just discovered that hedge funds in the Cayman Islands hold roughly $1.85 trillion worth of U.S. Treasuries — over four times more than official data suggested.
🟡 The gap comes from the basis trade, where funds buy Treasuries and short futures to profit from tiny price gaps.
🟡 They borrow heavily via the repo market, using those Treasuries as collateral.
🟡 As bonds get rehypothecated (reused multiple times), tracking true ownership becomes nearly impossible.
This hidden leverage means the Treasury market might be far riskier than it looks. If these trades unwind at once, liquidity could vanish and the Fed would be flying blind into the next shock.