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📉 The Hidden Hole in US Banks: 395B in Losses No One Talks About
US banks are carrying a massive load of unrealized losses from bonds they bought back when rates were near zero.
Once the Fed pushed rates higher in 2022–2023, those old low-yield bonds collapsed in value. On paper the losses don’t count, but the moment banks are forced to sell, they become real.
Here’s the core of the problem:
● Banks are sitting on about 395B in losses from outdated low-yield bonds
● Around 6T is locked in underwater securities that can’t be sold without crystallizing losses
● This freezes lending capacity because banks won’t issue new loans while trapped in bad positions
● Regional banks are at the highest risk since they rely heavily on large uninsured deposits that flee instantly when confidence cracks
● A single scare about credit quality or asset weakness can trigger a bank run and force liquidation
📉 If rates stay high or rise again, these losses deepen, just like in late 2024 when they hit 750B
📈 If rates fall, bond prices recover and the balance sheets breathe again
Big banks like JPM can absorb the pressure, smaller banks cannot handle a sudden shock
The system looks calm only because confidence hasn’t been tested. Regional banks are living on borrowed time. If rates don’t ease or a credit scare hits, the stress hidden on balance sheets turns into real trouble fast.
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📉 7 Expensive Bad Habits New Traders Need To Drop
New traders rarely fail because of market conditions. They fail because of habits that drain their capital long before their strategy has a chance to work. These are the seven that cost the most.
1️⃣ No stop losses
You can’t control how much you win, but you can control how much you lose. Without a planned exit, a small pullback turns into hope, hope turns into panic, and a bad trade becomes a blown account.
2️⃣ Trading your opinions
Your opinion can be very expensive. Trading your opinion against all other market participants can be very expensive. The market goes where it wants and when you disagree with where it is going it will cost you.
3️⃣Letting your ego trade for you
Egos are expensive things in the markets, they cause trading without stop losses. Inflated egos cause a trader’s #1 priority to be proving they are right and refusing to admit when they are wrong. It is very expensive to let ego gratification be above making mone
4️⃣ Predicting instead of reacting
Trading based on predictions can cost a lot of money when they are wrong. There is more to be made by reacting to what the market is doing based on quantified signals than predicting what you think it will do later.
5️⃣ Being stubborn
Stubborn traders repeat mistakes. They let small losses grow, refuse feedback and keep fighting the same battles. Markets teach the lesson until you learn it.
6️⃣ No exit plan for winners
A winning trade without an exit strategy often becomes a losing trade. Trailing stops and targets lock in gains before the market takes them back.
7️⃣ Trading too big
Oversized positions kill accounts. Even a few strong wins won’t save you from a handful of oversized losses. Right sizing your positions is the difference between survival and blowups.
Good trading isn’t just about finding winners. It’s about eliminating the habits that guarantee failure.
JUST IN: $AMZN plans to invest up to $50B starting in 2026 to expand AI and supercomputing infrastructure for U.S. government agencies, building new data centers that will boost AWS capacity by 1.3 GW to support secure defense, intelligence, and research workloads.
The initiative, which aligns with the U.S. AI Action Plan, is aimed at fast-tracking federal agencies’ access to Amazon’s advanced AI services and custom chips, highlighting the company’s deepening push into public-sector AI.
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📈 Institutions Are Going Risk On
Institutional positioning shows a sharp shift out of cash and into risk assets. The latest readings are some of the most aggressive in more than a decade.
🔊 Cash allocation dropped to 3.7%, the lowest in 15 years
🔊 Cash has stayed below 4% for 5 straight months
🔊 Levels at 3.7% or lower have appeared only 20 times since 2002
🔊 Institutions are 34% net overweight global equities, the highest since Feb 2025
🔊 Positioning in commodities is the most overweight since Sep 2022
Positioning says it plainly. Big money is extremely bullish on risk assets.
Execution = 1%
Patience = 99%
Trading in a nutshell.
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Develop a system, stick to the system
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❓Why Most Traders Quit Their Plan When It Matters Most
Every trader starts with the same promise. This month will be different. This time you’ll follow your rules, respect your stops and journal every day. And for a few days it actually works. You’re focused. You’re disciplined. You’re that trader.
Then the first real test hits. A losing streak. A setup that fails three times in a row. A day where sticking to your plan means watching others make money while you sit out.
This is the moment where most traders break.
The plan was easy when it was just theory. Living it when it’s uncomfortable is a different game.
Most traders don’t fail because they lack knowledge. They fail because they quit the first time doing the right thing feels wrong. Moving stops because it hurts to take the loss. Overtrading because sitting out feels like missing out. Abandoning a strategy because trusting it through a rough patch feels harder than chasing something new.
The trader you want to become is not built in the easy days. It’s built in the days where everything in you wants to quit and you don’t. That’s the real work. Not writing the plan but sticking to it when it gets hard.
Anyone can follow rules when the market rewards them. The traders who make it are the ones who follow their rules when the market doesn’t.
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📣 MARKET PSYCHOLOGY
On October 15, as gold was hitting a blow-off top, people in Australia were lining up for hours to buy it.
Today, after an 11% correction over the past couple of weeks, those lines have vanished, even though gold has already bounced 5% off the lows.
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📈 A Simple Flowchart That Fixes Most Trading Mistakes
Most traders lose not because their strategy is terrible but because they take trades that never should have been taken. Wrong setups, wrong timing, broken rules. This flowchart is basically a filter that strips out almost every emotional or low quality trade before it reaches the button.
1️⃣ Start with the plan
The first question is simple: is this setup actually part of your system.
If the answer is no, the trade ends right there. No overthinking, no improvising, no hope mode.
2️⃣ Confirm the conditions
If the setup fits your plan, check whether the market is showing exactly what you wanted to see.
Volume spikes, trapped traders, liquidations.
If one of these pieces is missing, you walk away.
3️⃣ Check the timing
Even a perfect setup can fail if the timing is wrong.
The right session, the right news environment, the right day.
A good idea executed at the wrong moment becomes a bad trade.
4️⃣ Review your rules
Before pressing buy or sell, confirm the basics.
Your daily stop is still available, the risk per trade fits your limits, and all your protocols are intact.
If any rule is broken, the setup becomes invalid.
5️⃣ Execute with confidence
Only after all filters are passed do you take the trade.
No hesitation, no second guessing, because the decision was made by your process, not by your emotions.
It is about removing randomness from your trading so you stop forcing trades, stop revenge trading, and stop gambling.
You take only the trades your system was built for, nothing else.
🚨 MARKET SELL-OFF
The Nasdaq fell about 2.4% while the S&P 500 rolled over with it. Nvidia reversed from a strong open to a red close, but that wasn’t the only driver of the sell-off:
❗️ The “Sell The News” Reversal
$NVDA erased an early gain of more than 5% at the open and closed red. Institutions used the morning hype as exit liquidity, a classic “sell the news” move that shows the AI trade is tired for now.
❗️ The Volatility Spike (VIX > 26)
Fear is back. The $VIX pushed above 26, a key stress zone, signaling surging hedging costs and investors bracing for impact.
❗️ The $3.1 Trillion OpEx Trigger
Selling accelerated ahead of the expiration of roughly $3.1T in notional options. Dealers aggressively unwound hedges, adding mechanical fuel to the fire as prices slid.
❗️ The Macro Shock
New data showed unemployment at 4.4% alongside sticky wages, a combo that smells like stagflation. That hammered the “Fed pivot” narrative that had been propping up the Nasdaq 100 (down 2.4%).
Overall, the session reflected a repricing of AI leadership, volatility, and macro risk rather than a simple reaction to one earnings print.
JUST IN: US technology stocks recorded an average weekly net outflow of $2.5 billion over the past four weeks, the highest since data tracking started in 2008. This exceeds the prior 2021 record by approximately $800 million, as investors offloaded $1.6 billion in tech shares.
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JUST IN: The S&P 500 dropped nearly 2.5% in just 80 minutes, turning negative for the day amid a sharp collapse in the cryptocurrency market.
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JUST IN: Alphabet (GOOGL) has surpassed Microsoft to become the third most valuable public company worldwide, reaching a market value of $3.68 trillion.
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JUST IN: The Nasdaq 100 is extending its rally with gains exceeding 500 points, positioning it for the largest daily increase since May 27. The Magnificent 7 stocks have collectively added nearly $500 billion to their market capitalization today.
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Your A+ setup can still be a stop loss.
That’s not failure, that’s probability.
But forcing a trade that wasn’t in your plan?
That’s not probability, that’s sabotage.
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JUST IN: President Trump released a statement describing his phone call with China's President Xi Jinping as very positive, announcing planned visits and ongoing dialogue.
• Trump will travel to Beijing in April.
• Xi Jinping plans to visit the United States.
• The leaders agreed to communicate frequently.
Enhanced US-China diplomatic engagement could foster positive market sentiment, especially for sectors sensitive to trade relations like technology and manufacturing.
JUST IN: The Nasdaq 100 has extended its gains to over 2% on the day as AI stocks rebound. Alphabet stock (GOOGL) is up 6% today.
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🗓 Key Events This Week
Short but packed week. Almost all key data drops before the Thanksgiving break, so Tuesday and Wednesday will define the tone for USD, yields, and risk assets.
🔊 Tuesday
🔊 Wednesday
🔊 Thursday
🔊 Friday
This is exactly why patience matters.
Trader A worked harder.
Trader B worked smarter.
When you wait for the clean setups and manage your R:R properly, you can lose small, win big, and let the math do the heavy lifting.
Quality > quantity every time.
You literally have the infinite money glitch at your fingertips.
But you keep self-sabotaging, burning accounts, and blowing opportunities just because you can’t wait 10 extra minutes.
Read that again.
It’s not the market.
It’s not the setup.
It’s not the prop firm.
It’s your inability to delay gratification.
You lose because you refuse to wait for your setup.
Fix your patience, and the money glitch becomes real.
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How to become a discipline trader
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The day you plant the seed is not the day you eat the fruit.
Be patient.
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🔥 Buffett Just Bet On the Company That Can Break Nvidia’s Dominance
Berkshire revealed a 5.1B position in Alphabet, and the timing couldn’t be louder.
Days before the filing, Google introduced Ironwood, a chip that replicates Nvidia-level performance at roughly one fifth of the cost.
A week later they dropped Gemini 3, trained entirely without Nvidia hardware.
❓ Why this changes everything
● Training a frontier model on Nvidia costs 3–4B
● Google can do it for 600–750M using Ironwood TPUs
● Every other lab pays about 400 percent more for the same compute
● Google owns its hardware stack while everyone else rents it
Anthropic has already committed to 1M TPUs, and others are lining up. When a competitor can train at twenty percent of your cost, price wars aren’t a risk, they’re a certainty.
📣 What Buffett is signaling
He didn’t buy Alphabet because he missed it in 2004. He bought it because it’s now the only major AI player that can’t be cornered by chip suppliers.
Search, Android, YouTube, plus the cheapest high end compute layer in the world. Alphabet controls the platforms and the infrastructure.
➡️ What comes next
If Google Cloud accelerates, Nvidia loses pricing power.
If TPUs stay 75–80 percent cheaper, the ecosystem moves.
If Gemini keeps compounding, the model race tilts fast.
The AI economy is about to reprice around a single idea:
Whoever owns the chips owns the future.
Google owns the chips.
Buffett owns Google.
And the market is still staring at Nvidia.
Most people think waiting is “doing nothing”.
But in trading, waiting is a decision.
A powerful one.
When you don’t see your setup: Waiting is winning.
When your system isn’t aligned: Waiting is winning.
When your mind is unstable: Waiting is winning.
The market only pays traders who are willing to do nothing until the right moment arrives.
Waiting is not weakness.
Waiting is a position.
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🦶 7 Steps To Join The Top 1 Percent Of Traders
Trading looks simple from the outside, but the people who actually reach the top get there because they follow a structure, stay disciplined and outlast the crowd. Here’s a clear, practical roadmap that works.
✔️ Shift your mindset
Your mindset is the base of everything. Aim for steady progress instead of trying to nail perfect entries. Focus on long term growth rather than quick wins. Take risks that make sense mathematically, not emotionally. And stick to 1 trading system so you can actually master it, switching systems all the time destroys consistency. The top 1 percent think like builders, not gamblers.
✔️ Sharpen your technical skills
Indicators like RSI or MACD won’t make you a top tier trader. Real skill comes from reading the core elements of the market: where liquidity sits, how orders stack, how volume behaves and how price reacts to those levels. Study raw price action until you understand why the market moves, not just when it moves. That knowledge becomes your edge.
✔️ Survive first
Your only real job early on is survival. Most traders blow their accounts because they want to get rich fast. Losses are normal, but big losses happen only when you take reckless risks. Treat every loss like a small business cost. If you protect your capital, you stay in the game long enough for your skills to compound.
✔️ Build real trading skills
It usually takes 1–3 years to build the core skills that make a trader profitable.
● Discipline: follow your rules even when emotions push back
● Confidence: comes from backtesting and seeing your system work
● Consistency: show up every day and treat it like a job
● Patience: wait for your setup, not the market’s noise
These are the skills that generate results. Not shortcuts.
✔️ Work in cycles
Using 30, 60 and 90 day cycles means breaking your growth into structured blocks.
● 30 days: focus on execution and staying disciplined
● 60 days: evaluate your win rate, risk management and rule-following
● 90 days: review everything, refine your system and set new goals
This creates a clear feedback loop. You improve in chunks instead of drifting. It’s how pros keep growing without burning out.
✔️ Stay in the game
Losses, mistakes, frustration - all of it is guaranteed. The difference between failed traders and elite traders is simply this: the elite don’t quit. They treat mistakes as information. They adjust, refine and return. Persistence is the trait that filters the top 1 percent from everyone else.
✔️ Put it all together
You need all pieces working as one:
● A strong mindset
● A real edge
● Solid risk management
● Skill built through routine
● Structure through cycles
● Persistence through setbacks
Put these together and you become the kind of trader who separates from the crowd over time.
Success here is not accidental. It’s built step by step and every one of these steps moves you closer to the top 1 percent.
JUST IN: Ether ($ETH) has dropped below $2,900, continuing the cryptocurrency market's selloff to fresh lows.
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JUST IN: Morgan Stanley has eliminated its forecast for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, now projecting three cuts in 2025 amid stronger payrolls that lower unemployment risks. Chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen expects the cuts to occur in January, April, and June.
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🚀 Could Google Be The First 5T Company
Gemini 3 changed the narrative overnight. The real breakthrough wasn’t just model quality but the fact that Google ran it on its own TPUs, not Nvidia chips. That shifts the economics of AI and puts Google in position to dominate the full stack.
📊 Why TPUs matter
TPUs deliver better performance per dollar and far better energy efficiency. That cuts Google’s fastest growing expense across Search, Ads, Gemini and Cloud which directly lifts margins.
➡️ From internal tech to industry product
Google is moving TPUs beyond its own cloud and selling capacity externally. The Anthropic deal for up to one million TPUs shows they can compete at hyperscale. Each TPU generation is reportedly a bigger leap than new GPU releases.
💱 The flywheel
By owning the hardware that powers Ads, Cloud and AI, Google captures more value at every layer. Google Cloud can price more aggressively because its compute costs are lower than rivals dependent on Nvidia. Margin expansion follows.
📈 Where this leads
If the strategy holds, Google takes share from AWS, Azure and Nvidia while becoming the default platform to build and run AI. Gemini strengthens the consumer side and TPUs fortify the backend.
The market doubted them for more than a year, but the pieces are finally clicking into place. A 5T valuation is no longer a stretch.