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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: The US government shutdown has reached day 35, marking it as the longest in history.
• Forecasts on the prediction market Kalshi now project the shutdown lasting around 44 days, a sharp rise in recent weeks.
• Despite this milestone, Sen. Markwayne Mullin offered commentary on the situation.
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JUST IN: At a Hong Kong summit, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and other top Wall Street executives, including those from Morgan Stanley, warned that a market pullback is possible but not immediate, with Solomon specifically noting a potential 10–20% drop in equities in the coming period.
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JUST IN: US stock futures have declined by more than 1%, driven by a pullback in tech stocks in response to mixed reactions from recent earnings reports.
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The moment you stop needing to win, you start trading well.
When the outcome no longer dictates your mood, your edge becomes visible.
You stop forcing trades that don’t fit.
You start respecting the boundaries that protect you.
The irony is brutal.
Profits come the day you stop chasing them.
The market rewards detachment, not desire.
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JUST IN: The delinquency rate for office Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) rose by 63 basis points in October, hitting a record 11.8%. This marks a level more than one percentage point above the post-2008 financial crisis high of 10.7%, with the rate having increased since October 2022.
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JUST IN: The US government shutdown is now projected to continue through Thanksgiving until December 1, according to Polymarket, potentially becoming a 61-day event that nearly doubles the previous record. Air traffic control is currently short more than 3,000 employees due to the impasse.
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JUST IN: Meta's stock, $META, declined nearly 10% after the company missed Q3 2025 earnings expectations, primarily due to a $15.9 billion one-time expense.
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You will become profitable one day, not immediately but definitely.
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📊 Auction Market Theory — Simplified Guide
Auction Market Theory (AMT) helps traders understand how price finds balance between buyers and sellers. It’s built around the idea that every market is an ongoing auction — price moves up when demand is strong, and down when supply dominates.
Instead of just showing candles, AMT uses Market Profile to map where trading activity actually happens. It visualizes how much volume was traded at each price level over a specific period — revealing where the market sees “fair value.”
The key zones you’ll see:
🟡 Value Areas — zones that contain roughly 70% of total trading volume, marking the range where price found balance.
🟡 POC (Point of Control) — the exact price with the most trading activity; this is where the majority agreed on fair value.
These levels help traders spot where interest is concentrated and where price may return. They also make it easier to read market behavior over time, showing areas of high and low participation.
Market Profile helps you:
🟡 Identify balance and imbalance zones
🟡 See how buyers and sellers interact over time
🟡 Understand which prices attract volume and which get ignored
Market Profile turns random price movement into structure.
It helps you see where the market is fair, where it’s fighting, and where the next move might start.
JUST IN: Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that strikes penetrating deep into Russia would represent a major escalation, adding that Russia's response would be serious.
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JUST IN: JPMorgan anticipates that the Fed will end its quantitative tightening program next week.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration is increasing the tariff-rate quota for Argentina to 80,000 metric tons of beef imports in an effort to reduce prices, the White House announced.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump is set to deliver an announcement at 3 PM in Washington.
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JUST IN: New-home prices in China's 70 major cities declined 0.41% month-over-month in September, marking the sharpest drop in 11 months and the 29th consecutive monthly decrease. Used-home prices fell 0.64% MoM, the largest decline in a year, as all 70 cities recorded reductions.
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JUST IN: Bitcoin has plummeted to a more than four-month low, with the cryptocurrency currently down 2.9% at $103,826.
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❕ OpenAI has now:
🟡 Signed $500 billion Stargate deal
🟡 Signed $100 billion Nvidia deal
🟡 Signed $100 billion AMD deal
🟡 Signed $38 billion Amazon deal
🟡 Signed $25 billion Intel deal
🟡 Signed $20 billion TSMC deal
🟡 Signed $13 billion Microsoft deal
🟡 Signed $10 Billion Oracle deal
🟡 Signed "Multi-Billion Dollar" Broadcom deal
🟡 Launched a browser to compete with Chrome
🟡 Become the world's most valuable private company
🟡 Considered $1 trillion IPO by 2027
We are in the midst of a generational technological revolution.
📈 Top-performing stock strategies in the US right now:
🟡 Doing the opposite of TV host Jim Cramer
🟡 Copying the insider trades of 85-year-old Nancy Pelosi
Both outperform most hedge funds.
Sometimes the best alpha is pure irony.
JUST IN: Gold funds saw a record $7.5 billion in net outflows last week as investors cashed in profits after gold's historic rally, reversing the prior week's record $8.5 billion inflow. Over the previous four months, these funds had drawn in a substantial $59 billion overall.
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JUST IN: Palantir stock (PLTR) has surged more than 7% after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings.
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JUST IN: Microsoft shares, MSFT, declined over 5% despite the company reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings and $77.7 billion in quarterly revenue.
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JUST IN: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that some members of the committee believe it is time to take a step back.
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JUST IN: The White House announced that Trump will meet with China's Xi on Thursday during his Asia trip.
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JUST IN: The Trump administration is set to launch an investigation into China's compliance with the 2020 trade deal, as reported by the New York Times.
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⭕️ How Smart Money Rotates Through the Business Cycle
Markets don’t move in straight lines — they breathe in cycles. Each phase of the business cycle reshapes where capital flows, who wins, and who quietly bleeds out. Understanding this rotation is what separates investors from tourists.
🟡 Early Cycle — The Rebound
This is the “hope” phase. Recession fears fade, liquidity returns, and policy stays easy. Growth-sensitive sectors come alive first — tech, real estate, consumer discretionary, and industrials. These are the parts of the economy most beaten down before the recovery, so they rebound hardest once money starts flowing again.
Investors here aren’t chasing safety; they’re chasing momentum. It’s where risk appetite reignites.
🟡 Mid Cycle — The Peak
Optimism turns into confidence. Growth is strong, inflation stable, and credit still cheap. But markets start getting crowded. Financials and tech tend to lead as profits stay high and capital markets hum along. This is often the longest part of the expansion — and where “buy the dip” still works, but just barely.
Smart money begins rotating quietly out of the hottest names, preparing for what comes next.
🟡 Late Cycle — The Cooldown
Growth slows, inflation bites, and central banks tighten. The tone shifts from expansion to preservation. Defensive and inflation-resistant sectors take over — energy, materials, healthcare, and staples.
This phase is about protecting gains, not finding new ones. It’s when investors rediscover words like “dividend yield” and “cash flow.”
🟡 Recession — The Reset
Eventually, the system overheats and corrects. Spending drops, earnings shrink, and valuations reset. Here, capital hides in utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare — the most boring names suddenly become the most loved. These sectors don’t soar, but they survive, which in this phase is what outperformance looks like.
Every cycle is a rotation of belief: from hope, to greed, to caution, to fear and back again. The assets don’t change; the psychology does.
If you can learn to move with the cycle instead of fighting it, you stop guessing tops and bottoms and start understanding how money actually moves.
JUST IN: Chinese state-owned oil giants have suspended their purchases of Russian oil transported by sea, due to fears of Western sanctions, sources report.
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🤖 OpenAI has now:
🟡 Become the world's most valuable private company
🟡 Launched an attempt to compete with Chrome
🟡 Signed $500 billion Stargate deal
🟡 Signed $100 billion Nvidia deal
🟡 Signed $100 billion AMD deal
🟡 Signed $25 billion Intel deal
🟡 Signed $20 billion TSMC deal
🟡 Signed $13 billion Microsoft deal
🟡 Signed $10 Billion Oracle deal
🟡 Signed "Multi-Billion Dollar" Broadcom deal
The world's fastest growing "non-profit" is becoming the backbone of large cap tech.
🥇Gold’s Biggest Drop in a Decade
Gold just had its largest one-day fall since 2013 — down 5.7%, a move so extreme it statistically happens once every 240,000 days.
🟡 Silver fell even harder, down 9%, erasing nearly $3T in combined market value with gold in just 24 hours.
🟡 This came after both metals posted their strongest rally in over 40 years — gold +70% YTD, silver +85%. A correction was inevitable.
🟡 Flows were the red flag: over $17.7B poured into gold and silver funds in two weeks, one of the largest inflow streaks ever.
🟡 Gold was up for nine straight weeks, a streak that has always ended in a pullback — historically around -13% two months later.
🟡 Despite the crash, fundamentals remain bullish. Inflation metrics are quietly rising, central banks keep buying, and 25% of institutional investors still call “long gold” their favorite trade — ahead of AI stocks.
🟡 Meanwhile, U.S. debt is nearing $38T, global money supply just passed $140T, and fiat confidence continues to fade.
The market calls it panic.
Gold calls it recalibration.
By the time everyone starts speaking about the "debasement trade"
It's probably over
Yes, debasement is real, and will very likely hurt you over a 20-30 year period
But people overestimate the time frames these trends take to play out
Remember the U.S. dollar collapse/BRICS narrative 2 years ago?
Everyone was convinced the dollar would lose its reserve currency status
Yeah, it still might happen, but over decades, not months
The “debasement trade” isn’t wrong, it’s just crowded
By the time everyone piles in, it’s already priced in
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JUST IN: The typical down payment by US homebuyers rose 6.1% year-over-year in August, hitting a record $70,000. This reflects almost a 20% increase since January, with the median down payment tripling over the past six years and now representing 18.6% of the purchase price, the highest level recorded.
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