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How To Catch A Falling Knife (The Essential Guide)
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On Balance Volume (The Essential Guide)
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[How to trade like a casino]
Here’s the thing:
Every casino in the world has an edge over the players.
But, why are some casinos more profitable than others? And why do some casinos even go bankrupt?
On the surface, it seems like all you need is a statistical advantage over the players for you to mint money.
But, that’s only one small part of the equation.
You must also figure out how to…
- Attract new customers from competitors
- Retain existing customers
- Incentivize customers to spend more
- Keep your customers happy
- Etc.
Clearly, there are a lot of moving parts and one person can’t manage everything.
So, how does a casino do it?
The secret is this…
A casino has systems for everything they do.
For example:
#1: A casino has a system in place to incentivize their best customers to come back often by offering perks like free accommodations, transport, etc.
#2: All dealers follow a systematic way of playing Blackjack so the casino can consistently increase their revenue (and not leave it to the discretion of a dealer).
Now you might not be running a casino but, you’re managing your own trading business.
So, how do you manage it like a casino?
Well, you must have systems in place.
For example…
Risk management to ensure you don’t lose everything on a single trade.
Source of funds so you can pump in more money to your account and scale up your trading business.
Trading strategy so you have a fixed approach to enter & exit your trades — which improves your consistency.
Research & development so you can build new trading strategies and profit in different market conditions.
In other words, if you want a sustainable trading business that generates consistent profits, then you must have systems in place so your actions are consistent.
It's easier to make $1k from your job than trading.
But it’s easier to make $1m from trading than your job.
That's the power of compounding.
[The ONE thing you should never do in trading]
Trading is a mental game.
If you want to excel in this endeavour, your mindset must be at peak performance.
But if you borrow money to trade, you erode whatever edge that you might have.
Here’s why…
Trading with borrowed money = Money you can’t afford to lose.
And when you trade with money you can’t afford to lose, you make poor trading decisions because you have the “I can’t afford to lose” mentality.
So, what do you do?
- You shift your stop loss because you don’t want to take a loss
- You take tiny profits because you’re afraid of watching them turn to losers
- You average into your losers hoping to catch the bounce and recover your losses
Eventually, your poor decisions catch up with you and you lose everything (including the money you borrowed).
Now you’re worst off than before because not only are you broke — you’re also in debt.
Do you want this to happen to you?
Then, don’t borrow money to trade.
Repeat after me…
I’ll never borrow money to trade!
There comes a point in trading where too much information hurts.
You must put what you know into practice, a plan, something concrete you can test, verify, and validate.
If you're not getting the results you want, take a step back and work with what you have—not add more.
[Why you always get stop hunted and how to avoid it]
Imagine…
You manage a hedge fund and want to buy 1 million shares of ABC stock. You know support is at $100 and ABC is currently trading at $110.
Now if you were to buy ABC stock right now, you’ll likely push the price higher and get filled at an average price of $115 — that’s $5 higher than the current price.
So what do you do?
Since you know $100 is an area of support, chances are, there will be a cluster of stop loss underneath it (from traders who are long ABC stock).
So, if you could push the price lower to trigger these stops, there would be a flood of sell orders hitting the market (as buyers will exit their losing positions).
With the amount of selling pressure coming in, you could buy your 1 million shares of ABC stock from these traders which gives you a better average price.
In other words, if an institution wants to long the markets with minimal slippage, they tend to place a sell order to trigger nearby stop losses. This allows them to buy from traders cutting their losses, which offers them a more favourable entry price.
Go look at your charts and you’ll often see the market taking out the lows of support, only to trade higher subsequently.
Now you’re probably wondering:
“So how do I avoid it?”
Simple.
Set your stop loss a distance away from support to give it some buffer so your stop loss doesn’t get eaten too easily.
Here’s how…
- Identify the lows of support
- Find the current Average True Range (ATR) value and subtract 1 ATR from the lows of support
The idea is to define the current market’s volatility and then subtract it from the lows of support.
This way, you are giving your stop loss a buffer that’s based on the volatility of the markets (and not just some random number).
Pro Tip:
If you want a tighter stop loss, you can reduce your ATR multiple, like having 0.5 ATR instead of 1.
Many traders make the mistake of trying to find the best trading strategy.
In reality, it's about knowing yourself so you can find the best strategy to suit you.
How to Draw Fibonacci Retracement: A Step-by-Step Guide for Traders
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Money Flow Index Indicator (The Essential Guide)
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This is a 31-page trading booklet that contains a specific trading system that has generated 1451.74% since 2000—and has 18 winning years out of the last 20.
Learn More 👉 https://pullbackstocktradingsystem.com/
Limit Order vs Stop Order: Which one Should You Use And Why?
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Triple Bottom Chart Pattern (The Essential Guide)
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The Complete Guide To Renko Charts
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Three White Soldiers Candlestick Pattern (The Essential Guide)
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When you have some trading profits, don't upgrade your lifestyle too quickly.
Because when the losses come, they will be a liability to your finances, mindset, and performance.
The Definitive Guide To Heiken Ashi Candles
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The Ultimate Divergence Cheatsheet
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Open an account now 👉 https://tradingwithrayner.com/broker
Disclaimer: I’ll earn a referral fee if you sign up with them. But they are reliable in my opinion (as of this writing).
The Complete Guide To Trading Sideways Markets
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The Parabolic Stock Trading Strategy Guide
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How To Set Take Profit Orders (The Essential Guide)
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On Balance Volume (The Essential Guide)
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[Support could become resistance, why?]
There are two reasons for this…
Reason #1: Losing traders hoping to get out at breakeven
Support is an area where potential buying pressure could step in and push the price higher.
However, support doesn’t always hold.
When it breaks, those traders who are long will be sitting in the red. The smart traders will cut their losses and move on. But, stubborn traders will hold onto to their losses and hope the price will reverse back to their entry price — so they can get out at breakeven.
So if you think about it, this group of stubborn traders will create selling pressure at their entry price as they exit their positions, and if there’s enough of such traders, support will become resistance.
But that’s not all because…
Reason #2: Textbook setup
Traders familiar with classical technical analysis will look to sell at the previous area of support as that’s what most textbooks teach.
And if you get enough traders “following” the textbook setup, it puts selling pressure on the previous area of support which could now become resistance.
In trading, you're not paid by the hour but, by doing the correct things over and over again. Don't forget that!
Читать полностью…
[Why support and resistance are not lines on your chart]
Let me share with you a story…
In my early days of trading, I used to think my support and resistance lines are the best and the market will respect it to the pip.
But it didn’t take me long to realize my support and resistance levels keep getting breached, and I thought it was a breakout.
So I traded the breakout.
The next thing I know, the price quickly made a swift reversal in the opposite direction and I got stopped out.
So, I looked back at my charts and asked myself:
“What the hell went wrong?”
Well, it seems the levels I drew did hold up, albeit not to the exact pip.
And that’s when I had an “Aha!” moment…
I realized support and resistance are not lines, instead, they are areas on my chart. Here’s why…
There are usually two groups of traders in the market:
- FOMO traders
- Cheapo traders
I’ll explain…
Traders with the fear of missing out (FOMO) would enter their trades the moment price comes close to support.
And if there’s enough buying pressure, the market would reverse at that location.
On the other hand, some traders want to get the best possible price (cheapo traders), so they place orders at the lows of support. And if enough traders do it, the market will reverse near the lows of support.
But here’s the thing:
You’ve no idea which group of traders will be in control. Whether it’s FOMO or cheapo traders.
Thus, support and resistance are areas on your chart, not lines.
If you manage your risk, your profits will take care of itself.
If you don't, your parents will take care of you.
[This is the most important technical level one the chart]
Here are a few reasons why…
Reason #1: Losing traders hoping to get out at breakeven
Multi-year highs represent extreme optimism in the markets because most traders (and investors) are in profits.
But as you know, the price cannot go up forever. Eventually, it has to retrace or reverse altogether.
When that happens, many traders will exit their long trades.
However, not everyone will do the same. Some will continue holding, hoping the price could breakout higher to give them even more profits.
But when the market collapses even lower, they’ll regret not selling earlier as their open profits have been eroded and they are now sitting on their losses. They hope the market could re-test the highs so they can get out of their trades at breakeven.
Reason #2: Bearish traders looking to short the markets
For bearish traders, multi-year highs present an opportunity to short the market at a “high price” because they can reference the highs to set their stop loss.
So as the price approaches multi-year highs, the short interest from bearish traders will increase.
Reason #3: Momentum traders looking to buy breakouts
Momentum traders buy breakouts as the price moves above a certain level. It could be breakouts of a range, swing high, resistance, etc.
But what’s interesting is if the price breaks out of multi-year highs, it’ll attract attention from traders across different timeframes.
That’s because whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, long-term trader, etc. the multi-year highs will be something visible on your timeframe (and charts).
Now, whether you’re bullish or bearish, multi-year high is a significant level for traders.
If you’re bearish, then you can reference it to set your stop loss above the highs.
If you’re bullish, then you can look to buy the breakout and have your stops below the previous multi-year highs (anticipating that it could become previous resistance turned support).
(And vice versa for multi-year low.)
No one can consistently predict the markets, call tops and bottoms.
So just follow price. Ride winners. Cut losers.
You'll be much further ahead than trying to outsmart the market.
If you want a fixed monthly income, don't be a trader.
Читать полностью…