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Saving retail traders from self-destruction Learn more: Tradingwithrayner.com Join us: https://t.me/tradingwithrayner
Imagine you have a trading strategy that makes 20% a year over the long run.
Sounds amazing, right?
But here's what the yearly returns might look like…
Year 1: +25%
Year 2: +18%
Year 3: +3%
Year 4: -12%
Year 5: -5%
Year 6: +30%
Now let me ask you…
If you started trading this strategy in Year 3, would you still be at it after two losing years?
(Year 3 was survivable. But Year 4 and 5? That's two years of watching your account bleed while your wife leans over your shoulder and asks, "So… how's trading going?")
Most traders would have quit by Year 5.
And that's the problem with relying on just one strategy.
Because every single strategy has a market environment where it gets crushed.
For example:
Trend following performs beautifully when markets make big, sustained moves. But throw it into a choppy, sideways market, and it bleeds money faster than I bleed dignity at a parent-teacher meeting.
Here’s the thing…
Your strategy isn't necessarily broken. But rather, the market environment isn’t suitable for it.
The solution?
Instead of depending on a single source of returns, you have multiple strategies that profit from different market behaviours.
For example…
• Mean reversion: profits when prices overreact and snap back.
• Momentum: profits from persistent relative strength.
• Trend following: profits from large directional moves.
When trend following is struggling in a choppy market, mean reversion might be doing well.
When mean reversion is getting crushed in a strong trend, momentum might be picking up the slack.
The idea is simple:
Don’t have all your strategies experiencing their worst periods at the same time.
It's like marriage. You and your spouse can't both be in a terrible mood simultaneously. One of you has to stay calm, or the whole household falls apart.
Now, before you go off and stack 10 strategies into your portfolio…
Stop.
Because more strategies don't automatically mean more diversification.
I see traders do this all the time. They trade a 20-day breakout, a 50-day breakout, a 100-day breakout, and a 200-day breakout.
And think to themselves:
"Look at me, I'm diversified!"
No, you're not.
You just have four versions of the same strategy.
They're all driven by essentially the same trend-following effect. So when the market reverses, all four strategies reverse at the same time together, holding hands, all the way down.
Remember…
The goal is to have different trading strategies so you can profit in a bull market, a bear market, and even during a recession.
It's 2014, and my trend following system is on fire.
Every trade works. Winners run, losers get cut, and my account is climbing so fast I'm already mentally spending money I haven't made yet.
I remember thinking…
"This is it. I've cracked the code."
"Warren Buffett who?"
A few months later, the market decided to teach me some manners.
The clean, beautiful trends I was riding? Gone.
Replaced by the most frustrating, choppy, sideways nonsense I’ve ever seen in my life.
Breakouts failed. Positions got stopped out. The same system that made me feel like a genius was now bleeding my account week after week.
And I was refreshing my trading screen the way I check the mirror for new signs of hair loss.
The funny thing is…
I hadn’t done anything wrong.
Same rules. Same discipline. I followed the system exactly like I did during the good times. But the market simply stopped handing out trends.
So I sat there, watching my "money printing machine" turn into a paperweight.
Then, something hit me.
I realised a trend-following system is like an umbrella shop. When it rains, business is booming, and you're the happiest guy in town.
But when the sun comes out? Nobody wants umbrellas.
That was me in 2014. Fantastic umbrella shop. Absolutely tragic weather.
The fix wasn't to burn the umbrellas in a fit of rage. The fix was to open a sunscreen shop right next door.
So I built a second system, a mean-reversion one, that made money in the exact conditions my trend following system hated. The quiet, choppy markets that were slowly murdering my trend following system? My mean reversion system absolutely loved them.
So here’s what I’ve learned…
Every trading system makes money in a certain market condition. Trend following needs trends. Mean reversion systems need chop.
So instead of hunting for that one perfect system, you're far better off having multiple trading systems that complement each other.
When trends run, your umbrella shop pays the bills. When markets go sideways, your sunscreen shop picks up the slack. This was the moment my trading felt like an actual business.
Chris Camillo had no finance degree. No Bloomberg terminal. No Wall Street connections.
Just an ordinary guy with $20k. And somehow this nobody turned that $20k into 8 figures, while outrunning the pros who do this for a living.
How did it happen?
When he began, Chris tried to beat Wall Street at their own game.
Same charts everyone stares at. Same indicators everyone uses.
Same earnings reports that 10,000 analysts have already read before their morning coffee.
And guess what?
He got flattened.
So Chris quit their game and played his own.
Instead of studying balance sheets, he studied people.
He watched what regular folks were buying, wearing, downloading, and talking about in everyday life.
• A toy blowing up among kids.
• A brand suddenly all over social media.
• A product his own family got obsessed with months before any analyst noticed.
He treated social media like the world's biggest focus group, and he read those real-world shifts long before they ever showed up in an earnings report.
That was his edge.
He'd spot the change early, buy while Wall Street was still asleep on it, then sell once the crowd finally caught up.
So here’s the deal…
If you're using the same tools, reading the same charts, and following the same gurus as every other trader out there... you don't have an edge.
You're just queuing politely at the same losing table.
It's like trying to beat a casino by yanking the slot machine harder.
So stop grinding at the wrong game and go find the table where the odds are in your favour.
Chris found his table. He sat down. He won.
So the question is:
What's YOUR table?
For me, my edge is having multiple trading systems so I can profit in a bull market, a bear market, and even during a recession.
Not because I'm some trading genius.
But because I found the game that suits me.
If you'd like to find yours, you can grab a copy of Trading Systems That Work.
It won't turn $20k into 8 figures overnight.
But it might point you toward the right table.
Details here: https://tradingsystemsbook.com/
This strategy isn't working... time to find a better one.
How many times have you said that?
You've got a whole bunch of them by now.
· The breakout strategy from that YouTube guy.
· The moving average crossover you found on a forum.
· The supply-and-demand thing someone swore by.
Every time one hits a rough patch, you bin it and go chasing the next shiny object.
But here’s the thing…
You never knew if any of them worked in the first place.
So when a strategy has three losing trades in a row, you don’t know if it’s in a drawdown or deader than my hairline.
That’s why before you risk a single cent, you must test the strategy.
You look at how it performed across years of data, in bull markets and bear markets.
Only then do you know whether a trading strategy works, or not.
That's exactly what I'm teaching at my free web class, Stock Trading Secrets.
I'll show you how to tell if a strategy actually works before you risk real money, so you don’t waste time going around in circles.
Plus, what 22 years of backtested data reveal about what actually works in trading.
Sign up here: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/sts/
Here’s my trading result for this year…
YTD return: 21.33%
All-time return: 400.65%
In March, the stock market declined 10%, and this triggered an exit for most of my stock positions.
It turned out to be a false breakdown as the market rallied 17% of the lows.
Because of this rally, my trading system is bullish again, and needed to buy the stocks I sold earlier, albeit at a much higher price.
As you can tell, this isn’t the easiest thing to do because I seem like an idiot who sold at the lows and bought back at the highs.
But there’s a reason for this madness.
I moved to cash in March because I don’t know if the market will collapse further. If it did, I would look like a genius who avoided a blood bath.
However, it turned out to be a false breakdown, and I ended up selling low and buying high.
Now this isn’t the first time it has happened, and it will happen again.
However, it’s the price I’m willing to pay because I know this:
If I take care of my downside, the upside will take care of itself.
If trading is 80% psychology, why aren't monks rich?
If trading is about discipline, soldiers would rule Wall Street.
If risk management alone worked, no one would blow up their account.
So clearly, something is missing...
And here's what most "experts" won't tell you...
Discipline is the last thing you should work on.
I know. Every trading guru and their grandmother says:
"You must be disciplined!"
I can relate.
When I first started trading, I thought discipline was my problem.
I started with Bollinger Bands, and the first few trades were winners.
I thought to myself...
"I'm going to retire by 30, buy a villa, and have a swimming pool."
Now, I'm almost 40. No villa. No pool. And I have 3 monkeys running around my house.
Then…
I encountered 5 losses in a row, and panic set in. I thought the strategy no longer works, so I tried to find something better.
I tried things like volume spread analysis, chart patterns, harmonic patterns, etc.
But the only pattern I see is my trading account going down.
So, what did I do?
I told myself...
"You need more discipline!"
"You need to control your emotions!"
"You need to follow your rules!"
It didn't work.
Because here's the thing...
You can't be disciplined about something you don't trust.
Think about it...
Imagine you have a magic coin.
When you toss it, and it comes up heads, you win $2.
When you toss it, and it comes up tails, you lose $1.
Now let me ask you...
Will you struggle with discipline when tossing this coin?
Will you abandon the coin after 5 losses?
Will you need a therapist to help you manage your emotions?
Of course not!
You'd flip that coin all day. During breakfast. During lunch. During dinner. And even while peeing, you'd be flipping the coin with one hand.
(Don't ask what the other hand is doing.)
Now, why didn’t you have discipline problems with this coin?
Because you know the odds are in your favour.
You don't need motivation. You don't need a trading journal filled with affirmations. You don't need to meditate for 30 minutes before your trading session.
You just flip the damn coin.
Now...
Compare this to most traders.
You use a strategy found on some random YouTube video. You’ve never backtested it. You have no idea if it works over 1,000 trades.
And then you wonder why you can't follow the rules after 3 losses in a row.
Clearly…
You don't have a discipline problem. You have a strategy problem.
When you have a proven strategy that works, something shifts inside you.
You gain conviction.
You gain confidence.
You follow the rules not because you're "disciplined" but because you know the math is on your side.
Anyway, if you want to learn proven trading strategies that work in today’s market, then join me at Stock Trading Secrets.
A 2-hour live event where you’ll discover hw to trade profitably in 15 minutes a day (without staring at charts or following the news).
Sign up now: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/sts/
Hey hey, what’s up my friend!
Let me ask you…
How many times have you heard traders say things like…
“The stock price will increase by 100%!”
“The market is going to crash!”
“A recession is coming this year!”
The strange thing is this…
If predicting the markets actually worked…
Then Wall Street economists would be driving Lambos and retiring at 30.
Instead, they’re working 80 hours a week and arguing about interest rates on CNBC.
Now…
After trading for more than a decade and spending hundreds of hours testing different strategies, I discovered something surprising…
Profitable traders don’t rely on predictions, and neither do I.
In fact, I don’t know what the markets will do today, tomorrow, or even next week.
Heck, I don’t even know what my wife wants for dinner, but still, I’ve been happily married for years.
The same goes for trading.
I don’t know what the markets will do anytime soon, but still, I’ve generated over 7-figures in trading profits over the last few years.
Now…
It’s not because I’ve got a crystal ball.
But rather, it’s because I adopt a systems trading approach.
This means I have trading systems that tell me:
When exactly to buy and sell.
Which markets to trade.
How much to risk on each trade.
There’s no guesswork, emotions, or staring at charts all day.
Just a repeatable process I follow over again, like my daily routine of:
1. Wake up
2. Check if I still have hair
3. Cry softly
4. Make coffee
5. Repeat
If you want to learn more, I’ve prepared a short presentation here that goes into more detail.
Watch it now: https://go.tradingwithrayner.com/ustvsl
Trading is patience.
Patience for your setup.
Patience to get out of a drawdown.
Patience to compound your returns.
Patience > Intelligence
Hey hey, what’s up my friend!
Our live event, Stock Trading Secrets, starts in less than 24 hours.
During this live event, you’ll discover:
• How to earn an extra 15% a year in 15 mins a day (less time than it takes me to find my TV remote).
• How to grow your account to 7-figures and beyond (even if you have a small starting capital).
• How to generate consistent profits during a bull market, bear market, or even when it feels like the world is ending (like when my wife discovers I’ve been hiding my trading course purchases).
• How to tune out the noise and beat the markets (without looking at the news, charts, or reports).
If you’ve registered, great! I’ll see you shortly.
But if not, here’s your last chance.
Details here: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/sts/
You don’t need more indicators. You need fewer bad decisions.
Читать полностью…
Trading will expose you.
Your discipline.
Your patience.
Your excuses.
Trading isn’t a side hustle. It's a reflection of YOU.
It reveals your discipline, emotions, and patience.
Fix yourself and the profit will take care of itself.
Bitcoin: If the price breaks above resistance, we could see the next move higher.
Trade is invalidated if it breaks below the trendline.
Jobs are designed for consistency.
Markets are designed for uncertainty.
Trying to force certainty out of uncertainty is how most traders blow up.
A bad trade doesn’t make you a bad trader.
Just like burning toast doesn’t make you a bad cook.
Unless you burn it every day. Then, you need to buy my course. 😂
One of my favourite foods is chicken rice.
When I was a kid, a plate cost around $2.50. But the other day I paid $5 for the same plate. Same chicken. Same rice. Same uncle (who's also lost some hair over the years, so at least I'm not suffering alone).
How did this happen?
Inflation. The silent thief. It doesn't kick down your door; it just picks your pocket slowly, one piece of chicken at a time.
Now, for years you did the responsible thing. Saved hard and kept your money in the bank.
However…
Your savings were quietly shrinking. Not on paper. The number in your account is fine. It’s just that every year, that same amount of money bought less. Less chicken rice. Less everything.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth...
Sitting in cash isn't safe. It's a slow leak.
So the question is…
How do you grow your money faster than inflation?
That takes an edge. A repeatable way to put your money to work, instead of watching it melt.
Which is exactly what I'm covering in my free training, Stock Trading Secrets.
I'll show you a rule-based way to grow your money in the stock market, in 15 minutes a day. No guessing, no forum tips, no staring at charts.
A taste of what's inside:
• How to profit in bull markets, bear markets, even during a recession
• What 22 years of backtested data actually says works
• How to take the emotion out of every trade with a simple set of rules
We go live Saturday, 26th September, 10 am to 12 pm (Singapore time, GMT + 8).
It's free, but the room only holds 500 people, so grab your seat early.
Sign up now: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/sts/
For four years, I looked for my edge in all the wrong places.
I hopped from Bollinger Bands to order flow to harmonic patterns like a man speed-dating strategies, hoping one of them would finally love me back.
I lost half my account doing this. And the painful part?
I wasn't stupid or lazy. I was working hard but in the wrong direction.
Because here's what nobody told me…
An edge isn't something you feel. It's something you can prove.
So here’s the process I wish someone handed me before I fed my account to the market gods…
𝟏. 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬
I'm not talking about motivational fluff like "believe in yourself and the pips will follow."
I mean books that give you complete trading systems. Exact rules. Backed by real data.
Why?
Because Isaac Newton once said…
"If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants."
In other words, why reinvent the wheel when smarter people have already done the hard work for you?
You can reinvent wheels after you're profitable. But right now? Steal from the giants. Guilt-free.
𝟐. 𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐬
This is where you want to understand the idea behind a trading system.
Is it momentum, mean reversion, or trend following? Most trading systems will fall into one of these categories.
Here are some questions to help you extract the concepts…
1. Which markets do you trade?
2. What’s the risk management?
3. What’s the timeframe?
4. What’s the setup?
5. When do you enter?
6. When do you exit?
Once you understand the concept, something shifts.
You stop feeling like a monkey following instructions. And start thinking like a trader who actually knows what they're doing.
𝟑. 𝐓𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦
Now you might be wondering…
"But Rayner, if it's already published in a book, why bother testing it?"
Great question. Here's why.
The author could've made an honest mistake. There could be a typo in the rules. The edge might've worked brilliantly in 2005 and quietly died since, like my metabolism after turning 35.
You never know until you test it yourself. And remember: it's your money on the line.
𝟒. 𝐓𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬
Now that you know it works, make it yours.
Perhaps the drawdown is too large? Then reduce your position size.
Perhaps you want to ride a longer-term trend? Then widen your trailing stop loss.
Perhaps you want to trade it on your local stock market? Then adjust accordingly.
This is the step most traders skip because it feels like extra homework.
But it's also where the magic happens because a strategy you genuinely understand is one you'll actually follow when the going gets rough.
And that's the whole game.
An edge isn't a secret indicator behind a paywall. It's a repeatable idea you found, backed by data, and made your own.
So stop speed-dating strategies and go find one you can actually marry.
P.S. If you’re looking for a book with complete trading rules and backtested results, then Trading Systems That Work is for you.
He turned $40,000 into over $20 million.
Won the 1984 U.S. Investing Championship.
And across the many trading contests he entered, he averaged 210% returns.
Not bad for a guy who lost money for 10 years straight.
This is the story of Marty Schwartz…
Now, Marty wasn't your average guy.
He had an MBA from Columbia and was a securities analyst at E.F. Hutton, flying around America, researching companies for a living.
(In other words, he was the kind of guy who used words like "EBITDA" at dinner parties and wondered why no one laughed.)
In his free time, Marty traded part-time.
And lost money.
Consistently.
For 10 whole years.
You're probably thinking:
“If he's so smart, why is he losing?"
Here's why…
Marty is an analyst, and he’s paid to be right. You know, study a company, form a view, and defend it.
So when the market disagreed with him, he didn't cut. He argued with the market.
(It's like arguing with my wife. I can present all the facts, all the evidence, all the logic in the world… And I still lose.)
After 10 years, he realised something had to change.
So, he quit.
He walked away from being an analyst, bought a seat on the exchange, and started over as a technician. No thesis to protect. Just price.
So here are 3 trading rules that shaped his trading...
1. Follow the 10-day moving average.
If the price is above the 10-day moving average, look for buying opportunities.
If the price is below the 10-day moving average, look for shorting opportunities (or stay in cash).
The idea is to trade when momentum is behind your back, and not against it.
2. Cut your losses fast.
Even the best traders will encounter losses.
The key is to cut your losses so you still have “chips” to continue playing the game.
3. Ignore fundamentals
Fundamentals are useful to tell you which stocks are “good”. But it doesn’t tell you when exactly to buy or sell. That’s when technical analysis comes into play.
The outcome?
Marty Schwartz turned $40,000 into over $20 million and won the 1984 U.S. Investing Championship.
He didn't find a better way to be right. He built a way to be wrong cheaply.
Same guy. Same brain. Same market.
The only thing that changed is that he stopped needing the market to agree with him.
Jesse Livermore made $100 million during the 1929 crash.
Then he lost everything.
Not because his strategy stopped working. Not because the markets changed.
But because he made one mistake that destroyed even the best traders.
Here’s his story…
They called him the Boy Plunger. He started trading at 14, and eventually, the bucket shops banned him because he kept taking their money.
In 1907, when the market panicked, he shorted it and made a fortune in a single day.
In 1929, as the world fell into depression, he reportedly walked away with around $100 million.
Adjusted for inflation, that's more money than I could spend in ten lifetimes, even if I buy a Lambo for every lifetime.
And gave one to my wife. And one to each kid. And one for my mother-in-law (God help me).
This man could read the tape better than anyone alive. His edge was real. Not luck.
At the same time…
He filed for bankruptcy in 1915. He rebuilt. He filed again in 1934. He rebuilt again. And eventually, he took his own life.
You're probably thinking:
● "His strategy stopped working."
● "The markets changed."
● "He got unlucky."
Nope. Nope. And nope.
His edge was never the problem. What he lacked was risk management.
Livermore bet big. When he was convinced, he loaded up. And when he was right, it was glorious. But being right 6 times out of 10 doesn't save you when the other 4 take everything.
In other words, you can have the best trading strategy in the world. But without risk management, you can’t keep any of the profits.
So here are a few risk management tips for you…
1. Watch your total exposure.
Five trades in five oil stocks is one trade wearing a disguise.
If oil collapses, all five go down together, and your "diversified" portfolio cries in unison.
2. Never increase your size because you feel certain
This one is dangerous. Because the more certain you feel, the more you bet.
And the more you bet, the more it hurts when you're wrong.
Feeling certain is exactly what bankrupted Livermore. Twice.
3. Know the probability and the magnitude
Before you place a trade, ask yourself two things:
How likely am I to lose?
And if I lose, how much will I lose?
Then decide if the trade is actually worth it.
Hey hey, what’s up my friend!
Our live event, Stock Trading Secrets, starts in 2 hours.
During this live event, you’ll discover:
• How to earn an extra 15% a year in 15 mins a day (less time than it takes me to find my TV remote).
• How to tell if a strategy actually works before risking real money.
• The biggest mistake traders make with technical analysis (and why more indicators often lead to worse results).
• What 22 years of backtested data reveal about what actually works in trading.
• How to build a rule-based trading system that removes emotions—so you stop second-guessing every trade.
If you’ve registered, I’ll see you shortly!
Or else, here's your last chance: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/sts/
AI might be the most dangerous tool for traders right now.
Not because AI is bad.
But because it can make bad trading look incredibly smart—like putting a suit on my 5-year-old and calling him a CEO.
With AI, you can now ask questions like:
“Give me a profitable trading system.”
And instantly you’ll get something like:
• Buy when the 50MA crosses above the 200MA.
• Sell when the price closes below the 200-day moving average.
• Risk 1% on each trade.
• Retire to your private island.
It looks structured. It looks logical. It looks professional.
But it will fail in live trading.
Because AI doesn’t understand markets. It doesn’t understand trading. It doesn’t even know if a system works.
Before AI, creating trading systems took effort.
You had to:
1. Understand market behavior.
2. Come up with ideas.
3. Turn your ideas into a trading system.
4. Backtest your trading system.
Now you can ask AI:
“Give me 20 trading systems.”
And you’ll lose money faster than you can say margin call.
That’s because AI is not the solution you’re looking for.
Rather, it’s a tool to help you work more efficiently.
For example, AI can help you generate ideas, write code faster, and analyse information.
But AI is not the edge.
It's simply a tool like a hammer. Very useful for building a house, but useless if you don't know how to build a house.
Despite all the technology and tools available today…
Trading success still comes down to the same things it always has:
• Find an edge.
• Develop a trading system around it.
• Have the discipline to follow the rules.
Unfortunately, AI can’t do those things for you.
Most traders rely on opinions, predictions, and gut feel.
That’s why their results are inconsistent.
Professional traders do things differently.
They use rule-based trading strategies backed by data.
So I’ve created a free training where I show you 3 proven trading strategies backed by 25 years of historical testing.
You’ll discover:
1. A mean reversion strategy that produced 2834% over 25 years
2. A futures trend strategy that returned 2864% over 25 years
3. A momentum strategy that generated 535% over 19 years
More importantly, I’ll share:
• The exact rules behind each strategy
• The complete backtest results
• Printable cheat sheets so you can apply them step-by-step
If you want to see how systematic traders trade without guessing, then grab the free training here:
👉 https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/go/
AI won’t make you profitable.
Why?
AI learns from the internet.
And most trading advice online is garbage.
So AI just gives you better-written garbage.
Do you trade the US stock market?
Then join me at my free upcoming event called, Stock Trading Secrets.
Claim your free ticket here: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/sts/
In this 2-hour webinar, you'll discover...
1. How to beat the markets and earn an extra 10%, 20%, or even 40% a year—without analyzing candlestick charts, reading financial reports, or studying technical analysis
2. How to grow your account to 7-figures and beyond even if you have a small starting capital
3. How to generate consistent profits during a bull market, bear market, or even a recession
So if you trade the US stock market or have plans to do so, then this event is for you.
Claim your free ticket here... https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/sts/
The market rewards:
Patience over predictions.
Process over excitement.
Discipline over motivation.
It's boring when done right—and boring makes money.
Platinum: Itching for a breakout.
It made 100% over the last few months. Now, it's forming a series of higher lows (which is a sign of strength).
If the price breaks above resistance, we could see another move higher.
Get rich quick = hope.
Get rich slow = process.
Trading makes life easier.
If I can survive drawdowns, I can survive anything (except my wife).
The Trading Success Formula
Details here: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/trading-success-formula/
Silver (Daily Timeframe):
A series of higher lows coming into Resistance.
This shows buying pressure, and the price could break out higher.
Bullish till the trendline is invalidated.