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Tesla also received a terrible price target (analyst update) from Wedbush, which lowered it's price target for Tesla to $120 (sharply down from $150). I agree with Wedbush - It will not be a good year for Tesla - with no game changing products / models to be launched and an increasingly difficult EV market ahead. With a forward P/E of above 55 Tesla remains extremely expensive.
๐ SmartTrader Premium Insights: Analyst Rating Updates
๐ Tuesday, March 26
๐ข Positive Ratings:
Amazon (AMZN) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bernstein reiterates as a "TOP PICK"
Apple (AAPL) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: TD Cowen reiterates as "OUTPERFORM"
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Mizuho initiates as "BUY + TOP PICKโ
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bernstein reiterates as "OUTPERFORM"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Mizuho initiates as "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Citigroup initiates as "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Wells Fargo reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Mizuho initiates as "BUY"
Price Target: $70
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Mizuho initiates as "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
Micron (MU) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Mizuho reiterates as "BUY"
Price Target: $124 โคด๏ธ $130
Microsoft (MSFT) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Wedbush reiterates as "OUTPERFORM"
Price Target: $475 โคด๏ธ $500
Nasdaq (NDAQ) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Goldman Sachs upgrades to "BUY"
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $73
(VIP ONLY) ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข
Analyst: Jefferies initiates as "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
Nvidia (NVDA) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: CFRA reiterates as "BUY"
Seagate (STX) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley upgrades to "OVERWEIGHT"
Previously: "EQUAL WEIGHT"
Price Target: $73 โคด๏ธ $115
Spotify (SPOT) ๐ฑ๐บ๐ข
Analyst: Bank of America adds to โUS1 LISTโ
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) ๐น๐ผ๐ข
Analyst: JPMorgan reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
๐ก Neutral Ratings:
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ดโคด๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: Jefferies upgrades to "HOLD"
Previously: "UNDERPERFORM"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
๐ด Negative Ratings:
Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ๐ด
Analyst: Bernstein reiterates as "UNDERPERFORM"
Price Target: $150 โคต๏ธ $120
Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.
๐ข = positive rating
๐ก = neutral rating
๐ด = negative rating
โคด๏ธ = upgrade
โคต๏ธ = downgrade
You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE ๐
๐ฌ As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!
SmartTraderโข Analyst team
โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
SELL NOW ๐ฝ Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ
โ ๏ธ Volatile
โบ If you are still SHORT in Tesla - stay SHORT. We still see Tesla up more than 4.5% for the day and strongly outperforming Wall Street / leading the Nasdaq 100 - by a wide margin.
โบ We expect further profit taking towards the end of US trading / and increasingly cautious investors ahead of Friday's PCE data - which many investors fear will be the next hot US inflation report.
โบ We expect Tesla to give back more of today's gains and possibly see technical selling once Tesla (likely) falls back below $180.00 soon.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 280 - 300 (28,000% - 30,000%) trading Tesla (TSLA)
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โโโ-
โก๏ธ๐๐๐โ๐1๏ธโฃ8๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ๐
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BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
โบ It took a while for the gold price, which initially climbed further and even tested $2,200 for a brief moment, to fall back below our closing price (~$2,185). There was now renewed profit-taking as the USD regained strength.
โบ Yields also rose again and returned to positive territory, but are now stabilizing in flat territory.
โบ We are getting back in gold here, which is again below $2,175 (giving us a similar entry price as yesterday), and continue to see strong upside potential for gold, especially in the short term if equity traders become even more cautious in the coming sessions and ahead of the US PCE data - which will be released on Friday - especially as the important figures will be released on a holiday - where equity markets are closed.
โบ There could be slight additional selling towards $2,170, but overall the selling will be short-lived.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%) when trading Gold (XAU/USD)
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โโโ
๐ฅ๐2๏ธโฃ1๏ธโฃ7๏ธโฃ1๏ธโฃ๐
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
TP โ
@: 150.97
Alphabet hit our TP for a nice profit. We set our TP very well here.
We now see Alphabet near March highs ~$151.10 and will search for a good re-entry.
We continue to reduce our overall exposure in this sideways market.
Also Boeing closed in our tight SL for a small profit and then saw further profit taking as expected. We may find a good re-entry in the range $187.50 - $188.50.
PS: The Alphabet trading signal (re-entry) was missing in the Trial channel.
๐ฐ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
SELL NOW* ๐ฝ Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ
โ ๏ธ Very volatile
โบ We see Tesla trading ~6% higher after the electric car pioneer announced it will offer US customers a month-long free trial of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver assistance technology. The driver assistance software, which costs $12,000, was seen as a potential profit maker for the company, but has failed to deliver on the promise of full autonomy for years as Tesla's safety and marketing have come under regulatory and legal scrutiny.
โบ After the recent losses, we also see a SHORT squeeze. Also, Tesla saw additional tailwinds after Tesla CEO Elon Musk speculated about Tesla opening a chip factory (= which won't happen anytime soon).
โบ We want to SHORT Tesla here near $183.00* and believe current gains will be difficult to sustain. After the 6% rise, Tesla is now trading at March highs.
โบ We trade Tesla slightly smaller than usual given the strong volatility here.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 180 - 200 (18,000% - 20,000%) trading Tesla (TSLA) - 2/3 trading size
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
โก๏ธ๐๐1๏ธโฃ8๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ๐
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๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ Wall Street turns higher after two days of losses & despite analysts' warning
Despite forceful warnings from analysts and muted trading as markets wait for more US data, we see the recent rally to return as we have expected. Stocks in Europe are slightly positive - the DAX continues to outperform and reach a new ATH.
Concerns about slowing earnings and too high valuations continue to weigh on market sentiment. The recently strong USD has also weighed on Wall Street but we see the USD given back further recent gains against its peers with also US Treasury yields slightly lower for the day.
Durable goods orders came above expectations - showing again that most analysts continue to underestimate the resilience of the US economy and more over the US consumer. However, I agree that the markets need yet another strong earnings season to push stocks another leg higher from here. On the other hand, the outlook for rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks continue to provide a tailwind as it means financial conditions will improve later this year.
However, we can continue to see equities outside the US catching up with the strong gains we have seen on Wall Street in particular. This could accelerate as interest rate cuts in Europe are probably closer than in the US. Equities in Asia are also undervalued.
Overall, we will continue to see very subdued trading activity, but I expect investors to return to equities (including in the US). We see markets rising across the board in the US, with growth/tech stocks outperforming and leading the S&P 500 higher.
The generally improved risk sentiment is also reflected in commodity prices: Oil and industrial metals prices have risen recently. I expect this trend to continue - although a temporarily stronger USD will then give it a pause - but the outlook for commodity prices remains bullish. We continue to expect the energy sector to outperform and materials to trade at a discount. The recent outperformance of cryptocurrencies - although triggered by the opening of a marketplace for Bitcoin and Ether ETNs by the LSE - also shows an overall positive risk sentiment.
Oil prices remain on an upward trend - supported by rising expectations of a supply deficit, signs of higher global demand and ongoing global tensions. Global tensions, increasing uncertainty about how much further equity prices can rise and the prospect of interest rate cuts are keeping gold on the upswing.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
March 26, 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Financial Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Defensive Stocks โก๏ธ
Energy Stocks โ๏ธ
Materials Stocks โก๏ธ
๐ฑ Forex
AUD, CAD โ๏ธ
EUR โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (recovering from over-selling)
USD โก๏ธ (little changed - but will likely see some gains towards THU)
GBP โก๏ธ (remains rather bearish, but benefits from rebound gains after recent weakness)
JPY โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
CHF โ๏ธ
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Oil prices โ๏ธ (oil remains bullish)
Natural Gas prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (short-term recovery gains after recent sharp selling)
Metal prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (slight selling after recent gains; commodities remains slightly bullish)
Gold โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (gold to remain bullish - may see slight headwinds if USD strength returns)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ (volatile - risk of (sudden) profit taking increases)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
โ ๏ธ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL
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BUY NOW ๐ผ CAD/CHF
โบ We continue to see subdued trading activity on all markets. We see a slight improvement in risk sentiment after traders acted very cautiously yesterday. US Treasury yields continue to slide slightly lower but remain supported overall as investors now see the Fed as more dovish but not compared to other central banks.
โบ The CHF has more downside potential as the SNB is well ahead of other central banks and has already started to cut rates last week - from a much lower starting level.
โบ We see commodity currencies such as the AUD and CAD supported by signs of an improving global economy, rising Chinese demand, the prospect of interest rate cuts and temporarily also by a USD that is pulling back slightly from overbought levels.
โบ We are increasing our position in commodity currencies (we are LONG in AUD) and are also positioning ourselves LONG in CAD against the weakening CHF.
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
๐๐ข๐
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๐ SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap ๐
๐ Tuesday, March 26
โ๏ธ Market sentiment improves after cautious Monday; Trading volumes remain subdued as traders wait for PCE data
โบ European stocks experienced slight movements in anticipation of key US inflation figures set for release later this week. The Stoxx Europe 600 index showed little change. Spain's economy showed resilience with a 2% GDP growth in Q4, outpacing expectations and highlighting a steady economic recovery. Germany's consumer confidence slightly improved, suggesting a cautious optimism among consumers. SmartTrader chief analyst Robert Lindner expect more signs of an improving global economy.
โบ US futures saw a modest uptick following a dip in the S&P 500 Index on Monday, reflecting a mixed reaction to anticipated durable goods and consumer confidence data from the US. These figures could slightly influence the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, a topic that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to address. Strategists at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan express concerns over the sustainability of current stock market valuations without corresponding earnings growth. The warning signals a cautious approach to the looming earnings season and the potential adjustments in equity markets. However, most analysts and investment banks have warned about stretched valuations also over previous months - instead we saw the equity rally extend and a very strong YTD performance so far.
โบ Asian markets displayed a variety of responses; Hong Kong and Japan's shares increased, whereas Taiwan witnessed declines. The offshore CNY, showed signs of strength following the People's Bank of China's intervention to support the currency. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki's remarks on currency volatility highlight the delicate balance authorities seek to maintain in the forex market, hinting at potential interventions if excessive movements persist.
โบ Oil prices remained stable at $81.8/barrel, amidst OPEC+'s continued production cuts and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, gold hovered near its record high at $2,185/barrel. Bitcoin extended yesterday's strong surge and trades above $71K. The excitement over the London Stock Exchange (LSE) launching Bitcoin and Ethereum ETN markets has caused the sharp rise in cryptocurrencies.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
๐ธ ๐ฉ๐ช GfK Consumer Confidence - 07:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ช๐ธ GDP Growth Rate - 08:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ Durable Goods Orders - 12:30
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ CB Consumer Confidence - 14:00
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - 14:00
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
๐ธ = Event of medium/high importance
โฆ๏ธ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
โ๏ธ BYD (BYDDY) ๐จ๐ณ
โ๏ธ Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) ๐ฎ๐ช
SmartTraderโข Analyst team & Robert Lindner
โ
22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2174.43)
โด๏ธ 22.3 - NZD/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (open - break-even)
๐ SL ๐ @: 0.59877 // TP โ
@: 0.60111
โ
22.3 - APPL - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 172.17 / potentially with slippage)
โโ
22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (hit SL 2159.77 /or in TP 2174.13)
โ
22.3 - BA - LONG โ๏ธ (closed ~ 193.67 for me)
โด๏ธ 22.3 - GOOGL - LONG โ๏ธ (open - slightly off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 148.87 // TP โ
@: 150.97
โ
22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2174.13)
โ 22.3 - V - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 280.79)
4/8 (2 positions open)
โ
25.3 - USOIL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 81.679)
โ
25.3 - CVX - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 156.23)
โ
25.3 - INTC - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 41.93)
โด๏ธ 25.3 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (open - slightly off-profit)
โด๏ธ 25.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (open - slightly off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 2,162.37 (opt.) // TP โ
@: 2,177.43 (opt.)
โด๏ธ 25.3 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ (open - just entered)
โด๏ธ 25.3 - BA - LONG โ๏ธ (open - just entered)
3/7 (4 positions open)
If you want, you can update your Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ position from March 25th in after-hours trading here. You can (possibly) close it then during overnight / Asian trading. We continue to see gold bullish. I also minimally further tightened my TP for the NZD/USD from March 25th position and want to close here (0.60111).
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BUY NOW ๐ผ ExxonMobil (XOM) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Boeing (BA) ๐บ๐ธ
TP โ
@: 193.49
โบ We are not getting back into Chevron now. In case you are still LONG - stay LONG as we expect a positive opening tomorrow and energy to outperform in the last, holiday-shortened week that will see mostly sideways movement.
โบ In case you CVX position is closed (still near/at our SL), we want to stay LONG in (US) energy but switch to XOM (now near 114.50 or ~0.9% up for the day). I find the entry here in XOM a bit better.
โบ ExxonMobil has seen very strong and stable gains in March and we see that the current market will continue to push investors into energy.
โบ While we have seen muted trading in New York today - we expect markets to remain support - especially commodity prices that have been recently under pressure from China concerns and very recently from the stronger USD.
โบ We are also getting back into Boeing (unless you are still LONG; currently near 190.60). I see further recovery gains. We work with a TP as Boeing has seen a very similar pattern recently, with solid pre-market gains and some profit taking during regular trading. We don't set our TP for Boeing too wide (below today's highs).
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 500 - 530 (50,000% - 53,000%) trading ExxonMobil (XOM).
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 280 - 310 (28,000% -31,000%) trading Boeing (BA).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
๐ข๐ญ๐
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Visa (V) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 280.79
TP โ
@: 284.87
Intel (INTC) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 41.93
TP โ
@: 42.49
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 148.87 (or wider)
TP โ
@: 150.97
Chevron (CVX) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 156.23
TP โ
@: 157.47
We have seen Wall Street in sideways movement today. Energy was the outperformer today (with +1%) - as we have expected with also oil prices trading more than 1.5% higher for today (and remaining overall bullish). We have seen strong gains in Bitcoin - supported by news that now also the LSE increases the legitimization of Bitcoin & co by starting a marketplace for Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded notes (ETNs).
Visa opened poorly and saw a bit more profit taking. We see Visa with recovery gains - but we may see more sideways movement first - we can thus set a relatively tight SL / we reduce our overall exposure in this sideways market.
We update our three stock trades. Alphabet saw a strong rebound. Also Microsoft is reducing earlier sharper losses.
In case you are still in Boeing - you can stay in as the plane maker has seen strong opening in most of the recent sessions (than profit taking). Set your TP โ
at ~195.94.
We see Chevron with some profit taking. You can tighten your SL here / close in profit / or work with a wider SL - we see more gains in upcoming sessions. If our SL is getting triggered - we get back near $156.00.
๐ SmartTrader Premium Insights: Analyst Rating Updates
๐ Monday, March 25
๐ข Positive Ratings:
Adobe (ADBE) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
Amazon (AMZN) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as "BUY"
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Citigroup reiterates as "BUY"
Citigroup (C) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Wells Fargo reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $70 โคด๏ธ $80
Disney (DIS) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Barclays upgrades to "OVERWEIGHT"
Previously: "EQUAL WEIGHT"
Price Target: $95 โคด๏ธ $135
Meta (META) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as "BUY"
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Evercore ISI initiates as "OUTPERFORM"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
Nvidia (NVDA) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as "BUY"
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: JPMorgan initiates as "OVERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
๐ก Neutral Ratings:
Apple (AAPL) ๐บ๐ธ๐ก
Analyst: UBS reiterates as "NEUTRAL"
McDonaldโs (MCD) ๐บ๐ธ๐ขโคต๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: Argus downgrades to "HOLD"
Previously: "BUY"
Netflix (NFLX) ๐บ๐ธ๐ก
Analyst: Citigroup reiterates as "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $555 โคด๏ธ $660
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ขโคต๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: Mizuho downgrades to "NEUTRAL"
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ๐ขโคต๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: Mizuho downgrades to "NEUTRAL"
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $195
๐ด Negative Ratings:
N/A
Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.
๐ข = positive rating
๐ก = neutral rating
๐ด = negative rating
โคด๏ธ = upgrade
โคต๏ธ = downgrade
You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE ๐
๐ฌ As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!
SmartTraderโข Analyst team
๐ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ (VIP ONLY) trades ~(VIP ONLY) below Friday's highs.
โบ We get into the (VIP ONLY) here near (VIP ONLY) and see room for a rebound with also the defensive stocks (VIP ONLY) in the red, as well as Microsoft strongly underperforming other tech stocks - thus (VIP ONLY). Also Apple is underperforming Wall Street / tech stocks. I expect (VIP ONLY).
โบ Boeing gave back most of the pre-market gains - also weighing on the Dow Jones. We see Boeing still 1.2% higher for the day, but sharply below the +4% in pre-market trading. Boeing remains in recovery mode.
โบ (VIP ONLY) both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase (VIP ONLY). However, JPMorgan analysts say that the current valuation (VIP ONLY) - I expect (VIP ONLY) to remain strong.
โบ We see stocks in Europe strong - which shows that part of the rotation went into non-US stocks (as predicted). The German DAX just reached a new ATH.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
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โโโ-
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
WTI (USOIL) ๐ข
SL ๐ @: 81.334
TP โ
@: 81.679
We quickly secure nice profits with our WTI trade. WTI exactly made the turn-around after our TP - we then found the near perfect re-entry. Congratulations - stunning oil trading / timing.
We secure profits as we are also LONG in CVX.
โโโ
๐ข๐๐ฐ
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ Markets in wait-and-see after best week in 2024; Further upside potential
After last week's sharp rise, there was some profit-taking in Europe and the US as investors assessed the outlook for corporate earnings ahead of key US data, which could provide further clues as to whether the US Federal Reserve will actually push through three rate cuts this year while reducing its QT measures. There was also little change on the Asian markets, where activity was also subdued overall. Japanese equities fell slightly as expectations rise that the Bank of Japan will not allow the JPY to fall further.
While analysts remain divided, with around 50% of analysts believing the markets to be heavily overbought and expecting a correction (a view they have also held over the last few months), we have now just seen the best weekly performance this year. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is currently posting slight losses, but has also posted nine consecutive weeks of gains, the longest streak in 12 years.
Yields on US Treasuries are rising slightly. However, the USD is unable to make further gains - for the time being, as the USD index is down slightly. The strong USD has depressed risk sentiment in recent days and also weighed on commodity prices and Wall Street.
The main focus this week will be on the Fed's preferred inflation index (PCE), which will be released on Friday when many markets are closed for the holidays. Although the Fed has announced it will cut rates this year and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has taken a dovish stance in the past week, investors now see other central banks as even more dovish and remain concerned about high equity valuations after the recent rally.
In pre-market US trading, we are seeing some headwinds in chip stocks after the Financial Times reported that China plans to restrict the use of US-made chips in government computers. Boeing shares continue to rise after the struggling airplane manufacturer announced that its CEO Dave Calhoun is stepping down. We are LONG in Boeing.
With Wall Street (as a whole) actually relatively expensive by historical standards, other markets (in Europe and Asia) seem to have much more room to catch up. We also see the other sectors far behind technology - and with more upside potential. I expect a solid week overall with muted trading activity - mainly due to the upcoming holidays. Markets will be rather mixed - with a possible outperformance of equities in Europe and some rotation away from growth stocks and towards more defensive sectors.
In commodities, oil prices rose as geopolitical turmoil escalated following the attacks in Russia (including a deadly terrorist attack in Moscow that killed at least 137 people). I see further upside potential in commodity prices, which are currently under pressure from the strong USD. Gold recorded strong gains last week and remains bullish. Bitcoin also found some support, but remains very volatile. However, Bitcoin's positive start to the week is a positive sign for the general risk sentiment.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
March 25, 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โ๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Financial Stocks โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Defensive Stocks โก๏ธ
Energy Stocks โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Materials Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
๐ฑ Forex
AUD, NZD โ๏ธ (recovering from over-selling)
CAD, JPY โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (recovering from over-selling)
EUR, GBP โก๏ธ
USD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (limited upside / slight losses after THU/FRI-gains)
CHF โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Oil prices โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ (oil to remain bullish - gains if/as USD weakens)
Natural Gas prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Metal prices โ๏ธ (commodity prices with upside - further gains if/as USD weakens)
Gold โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (gold to remain bullish - further gains if/as USD weakens)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (volatile - gains continue to hit profit taking - shows signs of rebounding; resistance at $69K - $70K)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 180.23
TP โ
@: 175.26
Microsoft (MSFT) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 421.48
TP โ
@: 425.80
We have found an excellent (re-)entry into Tesla - albeit well below our triggered SL - unless you have maintained your SHORT position or worked with a wider SL, which would probably have been the better decision - even though Tesla is a stock that can be very sentiment-dependent and therefore you always have to be a little more cautious. We expect further profit-taking towards NYSE closing and consider today's gains in Tesla to be (still) greatly exaggerated.
As we generally expect further profit-taking towards Thu or Fri (but the markets will be closed on Friday), we also have to limit possible short-term losses for Microsoft.
PS: I have traded Tesla a little smaller here again - that was not necessary.
โโโ-
1๏ธโฃ8๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ๐๐ต
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(VIP ONLY) โ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) ๐ฐ
โ ๏ธ VERY HIGH volatility; Increased risk!
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
โบ We see (VIP ONLY) in the second half of US trading as investors are (VIP ONLY) ahead of the US PCE data on Friday - a day when equity markets remain closed due to Good Friday. On top of that, there are even (VIP ONLY) and a press conference by Powell on Friday.
โบ The market generally assumes that there is a high risk of another hot inflation report, which (VIP ONLY). (VIP ONLY) is now taking over.
โบ In the last 36 hours, Bitcoin has experienced an impressive upswing, bringing it close to an ATH and today to an 11-day high. The rise has been rapid - there will (VIP ONLY), especially if there are increasing signs that BTC will (VIP ONLY) hold $70K for the time being.
โบ We now see that Bitcoin is flat on a daily basis, but with increasing signs that (VIP ONLY).
โบ We are working with a not too wide TP.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: You can multiply your trade size by ~ 0.5 - 1.0 (50% - 100%) trading Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
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โโโ-
๐ฐ๐โ
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Boeing (BA) ๐บ๐ธ
SL triggered ๐ @: 190.98
Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
SL triggered ๐ @: 39433.20
Boeing posted strong gains before the close yesterday, but opened "only" 0.6% higher today. We are waiting for a better re-entry but generally see more signs of profit taking now as the market has become more cautious.
Our Dow Jones has also reached the SL (even before the NYSE open) - this has kept our position from falling out of profit.
We continue to expect general sideways movement, which means we need to focus more on updates / news / fundamentals affecting individual companies / sectors than trading the general market sentiment / direction.
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 182.53
TP โ
@: 178.67
We may have made a magical trade here with the perfect entry. Tesla indeed saw headwinds at over 6% for the day between at/above $183.00.
We set an SL here to secure our position and are working with a wide TP. Tesla may also see a renewed rise here. We would then likely sell again at a higher price.
โโโ
โก๏ธ๐๐๐ต๐ต๐ต
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โก๏ธ NYSE OPENING UPDATE ๐ฐ
We see some dip buying after two days of profit taking in New York. We are well positioned. We see a market in sideways movement and first want to see what Wall Street does post NYSE opening.
๐น Alphabet (+ 0.2%) opens slightly higher near our TP. We keep our tight TP. We could see first see some profit taking we thus set our SL a bit lower SL ๐ @: 148.48
๐น Boeing (+ 0.5%) opens again higher - but sees less pre-market gains in comparison to recent pre-market action. Our re-entry is already well in profit with also last minutes gains yesterday. We set a tight SL to secure profits. SL ๐ @: 190.98
๐น ExxonMobil (+0.25%) opens with slight gains - similar to oil's current performance (+ 0.2%). We want to remain LONG in the energy sector. We set a TP โ
@: 115.67 near yesterday's highs.
๐น Microsoft (+ 0.4%) opens with gains benefiting from dip buying and a positive call from Wedbush "Outperform" and price target to $500 (up from $470). We stay LONG.
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BUY NOW ๐ผ BP plc (BP) ๐ฌ๐ง
โบ We position us further LONG in the energy sector which continues to outperform other sectors and has further upside with oil prices remaining bullish and with room to catch up after the strong gains of cyclicals / tech stocks over the past 15 months.
โบ BP is trading 0.5% lower for the day (hovering currently at around 503.00 GBX) - which offers us a solid entry.
โบ At a P/E of around 8 (US energy giants XOM, CVX are at >12 / Shell at 8.7) - BP remains strongly undervalued, especially considering the companies buyback activities and attractive dividend yields at ~4.46%. I see BP at around 20% - 25% undervalued.
โบ Disappointing earnings - especially earnings growth (EPS change) has weighed on BP and the energy sector in general in 2023 - but the outlook remains positive.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 90 - 100 (9,000% - 10,000%) trading BP plc (BP) when contract size: 100*.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 9,000 - 1,0000 (900,000% - 1,000,000%) trading BP plc (BP) when contract size: 1*.
*(check specification - right click - on asset. MT4/MT5).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ญ๐
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 39433.20
TP โ
@: 39499.40
AUD/USD
SL ๐ @: 0.65297
TP โ
@: 0.65679
We see a market in wait-and-see and in complete sideways movement. We set a tight SL for our Dow Jones position here - which is around 60 points in profit. We can't expect very big movements but I see a slightly improved market sentiment after the very cautious Monday session which was also dragged down by warnings from both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan. We expected the Dow Jones to find support after falling 500 points at around 39400 - a very strong prediction.
We are trading the sideways market as good as possible. Congratulations.
Our NZD/USD hit TP overnight (either at 0.60111 or at 0.60137). We are happy with the small profit as we are also still in the AUD/USD - a pair which is very similar to the NZD/USD. We are tightening the SL for our AUD/USD by nearly 20 pips.
โโโ-
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
CLOSE NOW โ
@: $2185 (area)
or
SL ๐ @: 2181.97
TP โ
@: 2184.49
If you have set the optional SL & TP, your gold position was closed at the end of Asian trading (at โ
2,177.43). If you are still LONG, please set a tight TP now, keep the original TP or close now - we are now taking our gold position home deep in profit and expect to find a good re-entry at/below $2,180.
Yields in the US are down slightly - continuing the signs of slippage that we already noted when we decided to get back LONG into gold.
I see most of you have a better initial entry - enjoy your profits.
โโ-
Nobody is trading gold currently better than us:
We won at least 22 of our last 23 gold trades.
01 - โ
05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
02 - โ
05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
03 - โ
05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
04 - โ
05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
05 - โ
06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
06 - โ
06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
07 - โ
07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
08 - โ
07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
09 - โ
07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
10 - โ
08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
11 - โ
08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
12 - โ
12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
13 - โ
12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
14 - โ
14.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
15 - โ
15.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
16 - โ
19.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
17 - โ
20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
18 - โ
20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
19 - โ
21.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
20 - โ
22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
21 - โ/โ
22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ (pot. closed in SL)
22 - โ
22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ
23 - โ
25.03 Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ - LONG โ๏ธ (closed deep in profit)
22/23 = 95.7%
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
Overview last 7 trading days:
โ
15.3 - GOOGL - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
15.3 - AMZN - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
15.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
15.3 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ
4/4 = 100% Success Rate
โ
18.3 - USOIL - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
18.3 - AMD - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
18.3 - AMZN - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
18.3 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ
4/4 = 100% Success Rate
โ
19.3 - EUR/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
โ
19.3 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
19.3 - BA - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
19.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
19.3 - NAS100 - SHORT โ๏ธ
โ
19.3 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ
6/6 = 100% Success Rate
โ
20.3 - GBP/AUD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 1.93821)
โ
20.3 - USOIL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 81.243)
โ
20.3 - NVDA - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
20.3 - GOOGL - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
20.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
20.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
20.3 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ
โ
20.3 - AUD/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 0.65989)
โ
20.3 - GOOGL - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 148.93 /or TP 149.97)
โ
20.3 - AMZN - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 179.47 - open at 179.99)
โ
20.3 - CVX - LONG โ๏ธ
11/11 = 100% Success Rate
โ
21.3 - FRA_40 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 8174.30)
โ 21.3 - USD/JPY - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 115.816 /or TP 115.067)
โ
21.3 - GBP/AUD - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 1.92867)
โด๏ธ 21.3 - MSFT - LONG โ๏ธ (open; off-profit)
โ
21.3 - BA - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 190.77)
โ
21.3 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2178.89)
โด๏ธ 21.3 - AUD/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (open; off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 0.65139 // TP โ
@: 0.65679
โ
21.3 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 18388.90)
โ
21.3 - GOOGL - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 150.73)
6/9 (2 open positions)
Visa (V) ๐บ๐ธ
Intel (INTC) ๐บ๐ธ
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
Chevron (CVX) ๐บ๐ธ
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BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
โบ We were waiting for a stronger dip in gold - but despite the rise in yields by almost 4 basis points (for the US 10-Y), gold was able to hold most of the early gains and finds rising support below $2,175 (in particular range $2,170 - $2,173). We do not want to work with too tight an SL as we could see some short-term selling again. Gold remains bullish.
โบ We see yields giving back some of the earlier gains and the USD also remains sideways.
โบ Markets are likely to be quieter this week as many analysts are still expressing concerns about stretched valuations after a 15-month rally/strong rally in Q1/2024. In addition, expectations for the upcoming earnings season are becoming more cautious as analysts now only expect S&P 500 companies to report 9% year-on-year earnings growth - which is fundamentally inconsistent given the S&P 500's rally of almost 10% already this year.
โบ Investors are also concerned about the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred inflation reading. A major concern is that the data will be released on Good Friday - a day when most markets will be closed, including the NYSE. Also, bond trading will be shortened on Thursday - a very difficult market, so we will see very subdued markets.
โบ Uncertainty is good for gold - but usually also for safe haven currencies. Gains in the USD are already well advanced, but we could see some more USD gains towards Thursday. Gold will remain attractive - also because of the prospect of strong gains later in the year.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%) when trading Gold (XAU/USD)
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โโโ
2๏ธโฃ1๏ธโฃ8๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃโ
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Intel (INTC) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 41.79
TP โ
@: 42.49
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 148.23 (or wider)
TP โ
@: 150.89
Chevron (CVX) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 156.19
TP โ
@: 157.47
Congratulations - in a largely red market we have once again done some very strong stock picking and made one of the best possible rebound trades with Intel. Intel has cut losses sharply and is trading only 1% lower - close to Friday's closing.
The selling in Intel (and AMD) was strongly driven by sentiment and panic after an FT shock report (which will probably not get additional reports building on this story for a while).
My entry in Chevron was bad as my pending order was not triggered, but the oil and gas giant is doing exactly what we expected - it has risen even more than we expected. We are working with a tight SL and set the TP in the $157.00 - $158.00 range.
Our WTI trade already hit the TP for a very nice profit.
You can also set a wider SL for Alphabet. Alphabet remains bullish.
โโโ
This rebound mega-trade came announced. Congratulations. Most of you can now buy a ๐ป with an Intel CPU with the profits ๐
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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BUY NOW ๐ผ Intel (INTC) ๐บ๐ธ
โ ๏ธ Volatile
โบ We buy the sharp fall in Intel at ~$41.00. Chip stocks (with the exception of Nvidia, the absolute dominant supplier of AI chips) sold off sharply pre-market after the Financial Times reported that China wants to restrict the use of US-made chips in government computers. At the end - it also remains "just" a report.
โบ "Beggars can't be choosers" - that's what I would say here. China doesn't have the ability to replace Intel and AMD chips at the moment. I can see that Intel and AMD will also play a very important role in the AI sector in order to bridge the AI gap.
โบ I see a very good market for chips. Intel also surprised with a solid performance in the fourth quarter, as sales of over $15 billion exceeded expectations. Intel's outlook for the current quarter shows incredible year-over-year growth - Intel has had poor margins in recent years - I believe Intel has significant potential to improve gross margins as demand for chips / server demand / cloud solutions continues to increase and thus prices are certainly no longer under pressure as they were after the end of the pandemic boost.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 1,300 - 1,400 (130,000% - 140,000%) trading Intel (INTC).
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It's REBOUND time ๐ชซ๐๐
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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS ๐ผ Chevron (CVX) ๐บ๐ธ
We see a mixed market with investors looking for more guidance. Our community is set for another mega profit with Boeing opening nearly 4% higher today. Congratulations!
๐น Alphabet (- 0.4%) opens slightly weaker after a strong Friday. Alphabet opens at $150.00. We remain LONG. We set a TP โ
@: 151.39.
๐น Apple (- 0.6%) sees some profit-taking after Friday's recovery gains. Our position closes in our (in-profit) SL. The neutral rating from UBS weighs slightly on Apple. I agree with UBS.
๐น Boeing (+ 3.9%) is once again the big outperformer and by far the strongest stock in the Dow Jones. Investors see the resignation of CEO Dave Calhoun at the end of the year as positive. Boeing is still in recovery mode. We set a tight TP โ
@: 196.89 or closing price after opening near $196.00. Congratulations!
๐น Visa (+0.1%) opens flat after overselling on Friday. We continue to see Visa with rebound potential.
โบ We expect the rotation from growth/tech stocks to energy stocks to return and generally see upside potential in commodity and oil prices. Chevron was oversold due to the problems in Guyana & the Hess takeover. I see slightly more upside potential in Chevron than in ExxonMobil in the short and medium term and also see that the extraction potential remains undervalued. We also see a positive outlook for oil prices / demand.
โบ Chevron opens at slightly below $155.00 (almost flat) and has a lot of upside. I expect the oil and gas giant to try to crack $157.00 again very soon and climb back into the $156.00 - $157.00 range today.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~360 - 400 (36.000% - 40.000%) when trading Chevron (CVX)
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BUY NOW ๐ผ WTI (USOIL) ๐ข
โบ WTI triggered our TP, then turned lower again as traders re-assess the Fed's positioning after the surprisingly dovish statement from Powell - including the Fed's outlook for three rate cuts later this year including tapering the current QT measures.
โบThe stronger USD continues to weigh on global oil prices with the strong USD making oil more expensive for non USD buyers.
โบ We continue to see oil prices supported by signs of an improving global economy and the oil market moving away from an oversupply to an supply deficit.
โบ In addition, we continue to see escalating conflicts coupled with a rise in attacks on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine, alongside receding ceasefire hopes in the Middle East. Russia again struck critical infrastructure in Ukraineโs western region of Lviv with missiles early on Sunday. Apparently one Russian cruise missile briefly flew into Polish airspace, according to Warsaw. Moscow launched 57 missiles and drones in the attack that also targeted the capital Kyiv. Russia's increased attacks follows Ukraineโs recent attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, with at least seven refineries targeted by drones in March. Meanwhile in Gaza, Israeli forces besieged two more Gaza hospitals on Sunday, pinning down medical teams under heavy gunfire.
โบ The US oil rig count fell by one to 509 last week, which indicated a slight decrease in oil production. We have recently seen US crude stockpiles shrinking - all signs of a slight supply deficit.
โบ We get back into WTI. We see support in the range $80.50 - $80.70 for US Crude.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%)* trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - [VT Markets / PU Prime / Markets / Libertex] *multiply by 10 when trading at Admiral Market / Markets WebTrader / *multiply by 1000 when trading at Tickmill. The prices you see here are the May contract prices.
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