[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

24 May 2024 11:00

SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Friday, May 24

❗️ European stocks follows US decline on delayed Fed rate cut expectations; Global market sentiment dented

► European shares followed the downward trend seen in New York and Asia as traders revised their expectations for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve to later in 2024 following strong US economic data. The Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark fell 0.8% at the open, recording its first weekly decline in three weeks. However, European equities appear to be trying to recover as economic data improved slightly (US economic data yes actually strong too). Technology stocks and utilities led the decline, while all other sectors were down. German GDP grew by 0.2% in the first quarter, driven by rising construction investment and positive net foreign demand, although private consumption and government spending fell. In the UK, retail sales fell by 2.3% in April, the sharpest decline in four months.

► US futures are slightly higher after a drop on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 Index saw its largest fall this month. Treasury yields dipped slightly, and the USD remained steady, poised for its biggest weekly gain since early April. Investors are now fully pricing the Fed’s first rate cut for December. The strong economic indicators such as the fastest service provider growth in a year and increased manufacturing output also caused concerns about inflation, which increases the likelihood for rates to stay higher for longer. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and other officials have emphasized the need for patience on rate decisions.

► Asian stocks experienced significant losses, marking the worst day since May 8, with regional equities extending weekly declines. Shares from Hong Kong to mainland China, Japan, and Australia fell. In Japan, inflation eased to 2.5% in April from 2.7% in March, remaining above the Bank of Japan's target. China's markets were unsettled by trade tensions with the US and military drills near Taiwan. Alibaba Group raised $4.5 billion from a convertible bond sale.

► Oil prices are little changed after after hitting a three-month low on Thursday, with market weakness anticipated ahead of the US summer driving season. WTI Crude oil is trading at around $76.5/barrel. Conversely, gold prices climbed to $2,340/oz after three days of declines, driven by decreased rate cut expectations and a the cautious market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇩🇪 GDP Growth Rate - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Retail Sales - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - 14:00

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀️ Meituan (MPNGY) 🇨🇳
☀️ AIA (AAIGF) 🇭🇰
☀️ Rolls Royce Holdings (RYCEY) 🇬🇧
☀️ Autodesk (ADSK) 🇺🇸
☀️ Cathay Financial (CHYYY) 🇹🇼
(...a few more with market cap <$25B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 22:11

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 11.04 - 16.05 (26 trading days)

135 / 165 = 81.8% Success Rate

(April 10 - 13/13 = 100% SR dropped out)

✅ 17.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 39929.7)
✅ 17.5 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.66776)
❌ 17.5 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 159.94)

2/3 = 66.7% Success Rate

✅ 20.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18699.30)
✅ 20.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2432.84)
❌ 20.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39846.90) 🔄
❌ 20.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2421.93 | or TP - 2433.47)

2/4 = 50% Success Rate

✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2433.47)
✅ 21.5 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 180.02|*w/ re-entry in profit)
✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2421.57)
✅|(❌*) 21.5 - USD/CAD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.36847| or SL - 1.36297*)🔄

4/4 = Success Rate: 100% (or 75% if USD/CAD loss)

❌ 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL -2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390) 🔄
✅ 22.5 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (CLSD ~77.251)
❌(✅*) 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️(SL 2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390*)🔄
✅ 22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18686.10)
✴️ 22.5 - GS - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 22.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39738.7) 🔄

2/5 - (or 3/5; 1 open position)

A very difficult week with mostly cautious sentiment. Yesterday's (after the bell) Nvidia report brought back optimism, which then ended abruptly with signs of a renewed acceleration in the US economy following very surprising US PMI figures. A reacceleration of the US economy, potentially inflations is making a Fed rate cut this year increasingly unlikely. At the end of the day, all 30 Dow Jones components closed in the red - a rarity and probably a change in sentiment that will result in further profit-taking in future recovery attempts (especially in the tech sector).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 20:14

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18674.20
TP ✅ @: 18602.60

Tough market - but we have to follow the fundamentals.

Today's very hot US PMI report may be an indication for a reacceleration of the US economy and thus inflation - potentially again tightening labor market. A potential reacceleration points towards conditions - potentially for the rest of the year - makes it very hard for the Fed to cut rates.

We see also a stronger USD - additionally weighing on growth stocks. We also see now some profit taking for Nvidia.

Our Nasdaq 100 SHORT is deep in profit. We set a tight SL and our TP near 18600.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 19:20

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► We turn in the Nasdaq (which closed in our SL - in profit). Our Dow Jones also closed in the SL (out of profit).

► We still see the Nasdaq up 0.45% at currently 18000 - 18010 (slightly above our entry price for our LONG position before).

► Nvidia's massive gains - currently at +11% - are keeping the Nasdaq 100 almost artificially "up". It is a massive outlier - without Nvidia, the Nasdaq 100 would also be in the red here.

► I no longer see much upside potential for Nvidia here (at +11%) - most other chip stocks are also trading in the red (in some cases significantly).

► We expect yields to remain high, which will put pressure on growth stocks that are still close to their all-time highs. We expect further profit-taking.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

1️⃣8️⃣8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣📈❌📉

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 17:45

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* 🔼 WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)

► The PMI data from the US was a big surprise - possibly the most surprising data this year. The markets, analysts and even the Federal Reserve were expecting a slight slowdown in the US economy - and the latest data, from employment figures, inflation, retail sales and GDP growth to last month's PMI data, all pointed in that direction. Absolute shock figures.

► PMI's are certainly not the most important data - but the extreme surprise here has a big impact.

► Instead of a slight slowdown in the US economy as expected, the PMI came in at the strongest in two years - incredible.

► The market is now extremely confused as to how to interpret this extreme surprise, which suddenly points to a strong reacceleration of the US economy. I too find the data quite confusing and at least extremely surprising. But the sharp rise probably means that companies have continued to raise their prices, which has accelerated sales growth and thus justifies increased business activity.

► It also means that the US consumer remains very strong and is continuing to spend money - which will then also lead to faster wage growth.

► The jump in yields and lower interest rate cut expectations have also weighed on the oil price. In reality, however, the strong US economic data actually points to rising demand for oil. Oil has now seen fundamental headwinds - as rate cuts are now less likely and the USD has regained some strength. We also set a tight SL/TP for our AUD/USD position - which, however, moved relatively little - AUD/USD: SL 🔑 @: 0.66147 | TP ✅ @: 0.66497.

► We buy the dip in WTI here to ~ $77.00/barrel* (spot price) and see oil prices benefiting from the US data, which would indicate a reacceleration of the US economy.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%)* trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - [VT Markets / PU Prime / Markets / Libertex] *multiply by 10 when trading at Admiral Market / Markets WebTrader / *multiply by 1000 when trading at Tickmill. ⚠️ The Jule-Futures Contract is currently ~$0.15 above the spot price

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

🔤🔤🔤
7️⃣7️⃣🔼

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 16:40

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► The strong volatility led to profit-taking - in all non-growth sectors. The lower than expected initial jobless claims and the surprisingly strong US purchasing managers' indices, which show that the US economy is accelerating again, also led to a decline in interest rate cut expectations (and thus to a fall in the gold price to the $2,350-2,360 range, where we started buying this morning). Gold is under pressure from higher yields following the very strong PMI data. We may want to set a tight SL now.

► The positive economic/labor market data is currently weighing on sentiment as it reinforces concerns that the Fed could keep interest rates high for longer.

► However, we see strong growth in corporate earnings (especially in the tech sector), a strong consumer and a surprising renewed acceleration in the US.

► We generally want to stay LONG in Wall Street and expect the Nasdaq to bounce from just below 18800 currently.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

🔤🔤🔤
1️⃣8️⃣7️⃣8️⃣0️⃣📈

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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 15:58

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW / SOON* 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY)

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸


🔹 Goldman Sachs (+0.3%) opens higher and has room to move higher - mainly because the investment banking giant is heavily invested in AI stocks. We found a very strong entry near the session lows yesterday and expect gains after the recent


► We re-enter the Dow Jones well below our triggered SL and see the Dow Jones now more than 600 points below the ATH (from May 20) pressure by losses in defensive / financials.

► We also want to position LONG in (VIP ONLY) as we expect the positive risk sentiment to continue and support the AUD. After the recent slide, the (VIP ONLY) has around 50 pips upside potential in the short term. The pair is also benefiting from stable yields and the generally weaker USD, which is dominating movements on the currency market today.

► We also want to stay LONG in gold (our SL triggered). But our analysis remains intact. We find a re-entry - currently again near $2,355* and take it.

► Nvidia and the chip sector are a bit too hot at the NYSE open. We are therefore positioning LONG into AI beneficiary (VIP ONLY), which is slightly underperforming the Nasdaq 100. (VIP ONLY) will be one of the key players in (VIP ONLY). (VIP ONLY) is the leading and still the fastest growing c(VIP ONLY). Nvidia's next mega report shows that demand for AI infrastructure will continue to rise. We see upside potential for (VIP ONLY), which is currently up just (VIP ONLY) pre-market and opens at around (VIP ONLY). We expect (VIP ONLY) gains.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).

🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 14:34

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 39738.70
TP ✅ @: 39883.40

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2362.27
TP ✅ @: 2379.89

We tighten our SLs a bit. We give our Dow Jones room to rebound to yesterday's levels before profit taking kicked in (which should be reached given Nvidia's ongoing growth story).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 12:34

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 39696.70
TP ✅ @: 39847.40

We see a strong pre-market performance in the US after yesterday's earnings report from Nvidia, which keeps the AI growth story intact (which has led the stock market rally since 2023).

After Nvidia's earnings report, we found a (still) surprisingly good entry point into the Dow Jones near the day's (yesterday's) lows. We now see the Dow Jones 100 points higher for today (and our position ~100 points in profit).

We are securing profits here but expect the Dow Jones to continue to rise. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have already reached new ATHs (today) - the Dow Jones still has almost 400 points to go to reach a new ATH.


———-

🔤🔤🔤📈
3️⃣9️⃣6️⃣0️⃣0️⃣📈3️⃣9️⃣8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣➕

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 11:10

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)

► Gold was smacked by profit taking and saw an extension of the downside momentum in Asian / European trading. While the FOMC meeting was more on the hawkish side, it is news from yesterday and the minutes were as one might have expected - especially considering that the FOMC was not yet aware (at the end of April) of the more recent "Fed friendlier" data. The Fed wants to see more convincing data pointing to cooling inflation - two rate cuts for 2024 remain on the optimistic side, but expectations for rate cuts have barely changed. US Treasury yields are stable.

► The gold sell-off was largely a technical pullback, although the USD rallied slightly on the expectation that the Fed will generally keep rates high (and at higher levels) for longer than all other Western central banks. Gold also fell in sympathy with almost all other commodities - including energy, industrial metals and other precious metals. After the sustained rally of recent weeks and reaching a new all-time high, a correction of 2.5 % - 3.5 % is nothing extraordinarily surprising.

► We now see technical support at $2,355 - we get in here. We are not trying to "win back" losses here but expect a rebound above $2,375 after a technical overreaction. We see flat returns and gold remains attractive as a medium/long-term investment.

► We are working with a tight SL slightly below $2,350.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

📉📉📉🥇📈
2️⃣3️⃣5️⃣5️⃣📈

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 23:34

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 10.04 - 15.05 (26 trading days)

142 / 171 = 83% Success Rate

(April 9 - with 5 won trades out of 6 fell out)

✅ 16.5 - GBP/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 196.687)
✅ 16.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 0.66821)
❌/✅ 16.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 472.47|pot. in profit dep*) 🔄
(*META entry price $471.00 - $474.75 / pot. re-entries in profit)
✅ 16.5 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 162.67)
✅ 16.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2378.87)
✅ 16.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39953.4)
✅ 16.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 184.17)

6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate (if META not profitable)

✅ 17.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 39929.7)
✅ 17.5 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.66776)
❌ 17.5 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 159.94)

2/3 = 66.7% Success Rate

✅ 20.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18699.30)
✅ 20.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2432.84)
❌ 20.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39846.90) 🔄
❌ 20.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2421.93 | or TP - 2433.47)

2/4 = 50% Success Rate

Meta hit our TP after being the top performer of big tech today. Depending on your entry - you position may have closed near break-even / or even in-profit. We closed our Dow Jones well today (even if moderately out of profit). We are now back in the Dow Jones (LONG) ~200 points below our triggered SL.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 22:39

⚡️ LIVE TRADING 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️

► Let's get back to Wall Street. The Dow Jones underperformed today and only 6 of the 30 stocks ended the day in the green. The Dow Jones closed 0.6% or just over 200 points lower - not a massive drop, but (surprisingly) the worst performance so far in May. We now get back after Nvidia's earning report into the Dow Jones range 39610 - 39650 (still near / at today's lows or about 200 points below our triggered SL today).

► With Nvidia delivering a (very) strong earnings report as expected, there is little reason - despite the initial very muted reaction - to see so much selling in the more defensive stocks. Nvidia also says there is a 10 to 1 stock split - potentially another slight - even if pointless (from a fundamental perspective) tailwind. Although after the 10 to 1 split - it could be added to the Dow Jones in the future (given a price of around $100).

► The Nasdaq is near ATH and Nvidia has more leverage to the tech sector - but the Dow Jones has more room back towards ATH (and on first move back above 40K).

► We also saw Snowflake up 10% after the earnings report.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

Nvidia reports a 262% jump in revenue (YoY) 🚀

🔤🔤🔤📈
3️⃣9️⃣6️⃣0️⃣0️⃣📈

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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 21:48

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 77.240 - 77.260

We close our WTI position here or work now with a very tight TP (and SL). We can find a better re-entry either way.

There is no action on the markets with everyone waiting for Nvidia. Nvidia will of course report a strong quarter - but it remains questionable how the stock will react and what kind of "beat" the market wants to see that would propel Nvidia towards $1000 (and new ATHs).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 20:39

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
SL 🔑 @: 77.621
TP ✅ @: 77.136

We also secure profits with our WTI SHORT. We see cautious trading ahead of Nvidia's earnings report which will result in a very strong rise of volatility - even with Nvidia's earnings report coming in near expectations (nobody knows what is priced in - so in reality - there might be in-line with analysts' expectations but what's the market's expectation is nearly impossible to say).

In case you are still LONG in the USD/CAD - set your TP now at ✅ @: 1.36979 // SL 🔑 @: 1.36679


——-

🛢7️⃣8️⃣📉7️⃣7️⃣

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🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 20:09

On a quick glance - no hawkish surprise whatsoever, but obv. all FOMC members want to see more evidence of inflation cooling before cutting rates (= wait-and-see).

"Participants (=FOMC members) observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, (..) The recent monthly data had showed significant increases in components of both goods and services price inflation."

Nothing new - as the FOMC voted unanimously at the last meeting to hold benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a range of 5.25%-5.5% - level it has been since June 2023.

"Participants assessed that maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting was supported by intermeeting data indicating continued solid economic growth (..)" which indicates that the FOMC sees risk on inflation due to a still strong US economy (but remember, these meeting minutes are almost a month old.

Long story short: That's all water under the bridge, nothing new.

We saw slight volatility now - if you are still in - you can stay LONG in Gold - if you close at $2,390 - that's okay - you can re-enter likely in the range $2,382 - $2,386 soon.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 22:52

TODAY :

✅ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2362.27)
❌ 23.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39348.3)
❌ 23.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.66147 )
❌ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (CLSD ~2349.67 | 2349 - 2354)
✴️ 23.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✴️ 23.5 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even)
✅ 23.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18822.3) 📸
✴️ 23.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 77.497 (optional) 🔄
✅ 23.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 18602.6)
✴️ 23.5 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.26612 🔄
✴️ 23.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even)

3/11 - (5 open positions)

Our over-trading near the NYSE opening / ahead of the PMI data unfortunately ended in a mixed day for us. We are now seeing a completely different market sentiment that we should not overtrade. If rate cut expectations continue to fall, we will see further losses in the growth sector. Financials (we are LONG in GS and JPM) would benefit if rates stay higher for longer while the US economy remains in expansion.

Today's roller coaster ride is clearly visible if you look at the Nasdaq 📸. After Nvidia's earnings report, we saw a sharp rise to a new ATH in after-hours trading, with the Nasdaq just 40 points shy of 19000 just before the NYSE opened. We then saw profit taking, which worsened significantly after the PMI shock. We took advantage of the slide (not with Dow) and bought the first dip to 18800. An attempt to recover ended half way. Then equities fell very sharply. Additional headwinds from higher yields, a stronger USD, lower rate cut expectations and renewed inflation fears.

We now see Wall Street in short-term oversold territory, but given the bearish momentum today, it is more likely that we will see further profit taking tomorrow (in NY).

You can set a TP for WTI position. We are setting a not too wide TP for our GBP/USD position.

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23 May 2024 21:06

⚡️ RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸

► We see strong profit-taking. Our Nasdaq 100 hit the TP, which led to a very large profit (200 point swing).

► We see all sectors deep red - with the exception of the tech sector, which in reality would also be in the red if Nvidia wasn't at +10% like a unicorn.

► We are now buying value and buying the sharp drop in (VIP ONLY) to ~(VIP ONLY) - a price last reached in March - where it held as support.

► We see the (VIP ONLY) sector as oversold and (VIP ONLY) fairly valued. We are buying (VIP ONLY) here. While US data caused heavy selling today, it was actually strong data pointing to renewed acceleration.

► (VIP ONLY) are also facing some headwinds from a stronger USD, but (VIP ONLY) ...

🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———

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23 May 2024 20:03

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 GBP/USD

► Inflation data from the UK came in slightly higher than expected at the beginning of the week, which led to a short-term rise in the GBP. Looking at the surprisingly strong US purchasing managers' index today, we look at the slower than expected disinflation in the UK differently - after all, there was still disinflation! Economic activity in the US is pointing to a reacceleration - building on strong consumer demand and possibly higher prices. The next US-inflation report could also show that the recent trend is already over and that inflation remains stubborn and may even accelerate again.

► The swap markets still expect a bit over 50% that the Fed will cut interest rates by september. I expect these expectations to gradually decline, especially as September approaches, while we are now seeing signs of re-acceleration. Today's initial jobless claims also point to a tight labor market.

► In addition, we see US equities continuing to gain importance, supporting the USD despite the massive US debt.

► We now see the GBP/USD moving towards 1.27000. I expect this level to be broken. The GBP will also face headwinds from a general deterioration in risk sentiment (even if today's US purchasing managers data is actually "good" data).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

💵📈

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 18:08

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 39348.30
TP ✅ @: 39597.70

Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18822.30
TP ✅ @: 18927.90

Our index trades are trying to recover. The strong rotation towards growth led to an underperformance of the Dow Jones. Another big blow was the very surprising US purchasing managers data, which suggests that the US economy may be back in (rapid) expansion mode.

US services growth this month was the highest in a year and manufacturing output grew much faster than expected. The combined data (services and manufacturing) showed the strongest increase in two years. This robust demand makes it difficult for inflation to cool down and makes it very difficult for the Fed to justify interest rate cuts.

Although the positive data is weighing on the market at the moment, it shows that demand in the US remains strong, even if higher prices may have supported the sharp rise in PMIs.

The Nasdaq 100 is back near the ATH - we are locking in profits. Our DJ is still outside the profit zone. We are limiting potential losses.


———-

🔤🔤🔤
1️⃣8️⃣9️⃣0️⃣0️⃣

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 17:22

Sorry we sort of "stumbled" into this report. I didn't even expect the PMI report to have much of an impact today - as the PMI reports from Europe were also unremarkable. Yesterday's Nvidia report turned market sentiment from cautiously positive back to euphoric.

However, the US PMI data is so shocking and unexpected that we now have to reassess many things, especially the outlook for the US economy, the general growth prospects, but also the interest rate outlook and thus the USD.

If you're wondering why the good US economic data is having a negative impact here, it's because it raises big questions about the outlook for inflation and interest rate cuts. An economy that is pointing to such strong growth will not experience disinflation and does not need interest rate cuts. But the market wants to see interest rate cuts - even if it doesn't actually need them.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 16:13

⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* 🔼 JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 🇺🇸

► We see a rotation from defensive to growth markets and very mixed markets. Nvidia has risen further. We will see this strong gap between the sectors narrow as the market and the current high volatility eases somewhat.

► We see the Dow Jones falling to 39550 - we remain LONG here. You can improve your entry (half size) if your original entry is more than 100 points higher.

► We see some headwinds in the financial sector - again mainly due to a rotation towards growth. We can find a good entry point here in JPMorgan and increase our positioning in financials. Our Goldman Sachs position is in profit - we remain LONG. Renewed pessimistic comments from JPMorgan CEO Dimon that a hard landing is still possible has again weighed on JPMorgan after the CEO already weighed on the stock following his comments on Tuesday. We expect JPMorgan to quickly return to the vicinity of $200 and therefore find a good entry here below / at $197.00*

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~300 - 320 (30.000% - 32.000%) and trade JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

🔤🔤🔤
1️⃣9️⃣7️⃣📈

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 15:13

📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Risk sentiment turns positive as Nvidia numbers/forecast keep AI growth story intact

Traders drove Wall Street higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new all-time highs, while Nvidia surpassed the historic $1,000 mark after another earnings beat and a glowing sales outlook, fueling hopes that artificial intelligence hype will continue to drive the rally.

The S&P 500 is on track to hit its 25th record high this year. Nvidia, which is at the center of the AI revolution, is up 7% in pre-market U.S. trading, pushing the company's valuation to about $170 billion. That's more than the market capitalization of Intel (~$135 billion). The AI giant also announced a 10-for-1 stock split and increased its dividend by 150%.

Market sentiment was somewhat weighed down by lower-than-expected initial jobless claims, which reinforced fears that Fed rate cuts may be further away than hoped. At the moment, slightly "bad" US economic data would be better than slightly positive data as it would be seen as Fed-friendly.

However, if Nvidia can hold its gains or even rise further above $1,000, it would be a very positive sign that the strong earnings (growth) of the big tech companies on Wall Street can continue. We expect the Nvidia effect to play out strongly today and the current rally to continue a little longer.

We see stable yields and a slightly weaker USD after a three-day rally - both cautious signs of improving risk sentiment. Commodity prices, including oil and gold, have continued to fall in Asian trade, but we now see an attempt at recovery that looks set to continue. Mixed markets in Asia will limit gains in commodities for now, but improving risk sentiment and a slightly weaker USD will support a recovery / further rise in risk assets.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

May 23, 2024

🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/↕️ (push to new highs lead by tech stocks - short profit taking waves at ATHs)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/↕️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️/↕️/↗️
Financial Stocks ↗️/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ↗️/➡️
Materials Stocks ➡️ (stabilize, slight gains after recent sharp decline)

💱 Forex (USD driven today)
AUD, EUR ↗️ (rebounding thanks to weaker USD)
GBP, CAD ↗️/➡️ (saw already strong gains yesterday, remains slightly bullish)
CHF ↗️/➡️
JPY ➡️ (headwinds from weaker oil prices, lower than expected inflation in Canada)
USD ↘️/➡️

⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/↕️
Oil prices ↗️/➡️
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↕️
Gold /↘️/↕️/↗️ (attempting to rebound after technical selling to oversold territory)

⚡️Cryptos ↕️ (remains volatile but loses short-term attractiveness due to more attractive stock markets)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

⚠️ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 13:01

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2361.23
TP ✅ @: 2379.89

The gold price is trying to rebound after profit taking. This shows how technically / sentiment driven gold is, as it has indeed found support in the technically important $2,350 - $2,360 range, where it found support after the strong April rally and again last week Tuesday and Wednesday, before then launching another rally to new ATHs.

Fundamentally, gold has no clear headwinds, but the precious metal remains vulnerable after the recent sentiment-driven volatility and profit-taking. Therefore, we now set an in-profit SL - if triggered, we can find a better re-entry (e.g. in the $2,350 - $2,356 range). We give gold plenty of room to continue its recovery.


———-

🥇📈2️⃣3️⃣7️⃣5️⃣➕

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

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23 May 2024 11:38

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Thursday, May 23

❗️ Global stocks climb after yet another mega earnings report from Nvidia

► European stocks climbed, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2%, driven by a surge in the tech sector. This optimism was fueled by Nvidia's impressive earnings and sales forecast, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations. Germany’s manufacturing PMI increased to 45.40 in May from 42.50 in April, and the composite PMI rose to 52.20 - indicating an improving economic outlook. However, France’s Flash Composite PMI fell to 49.1, moving from expansion to contraction territory. The Eurozone economy remains mixed and challenged - also by rising geopolitical uncertainty.

► US futures pointed to gains, with the S&P 500 currently 0.5% higher following Nvidia’s strong earnings report, which bolstered confidence in the tech sector. Nvidia’s revenue in Q1 at $26.04 billion beat the $24.65 billion predicted by analysts. This was supported by a 427% (!) year-on-year increase in sales in the data center sector (Nvidia's AI division). The company also announced a 10-for-1 stock split and boosted its quarterly dividend by 150%. Yesterday’s Federal Reserve’s minutes (from the April 30 - May 1 meeting) showed no rush to cut interest rate - but the impact on the USD and on US Treasury yields was minimal. The USD is little changed. Investors await more economic data and Fed announcements.

► Asian markets mostly rose, with South Korea unveiling a $19 billion incentive package for its chip sector, benefiting Samsung and SK Hynix. Japan’s stock benchmarks led gains in Asia, while Taiwan and South Korea also saw increases. However, Chinese stocks were mixed, with technology shares in Hong Kong dropping amid a price war between Alibaba and Tencent over cloud services. Nvidia’s strong earnings also provided support to Asian semiconductor stocks.

► WTI Crude oil slipped, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss as discussions of a potential cease-fire in the Middle East reduced the risk premium for crude. Prices have recovered slightly to $77.3/barrel. Gold extended its decline after falling 1.7% on Wednesday ahead of Fed minutes. Experts, including our chief analyst Robert Lindner, see the losses as a technical pullback after the recent strong gains in Gold. Gold is now at $2,360/oz.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇯🇵 Jibun Bank PMIs - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB PMIs - 07:15 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB PMIs - 07:30 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB PMIs - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global PMIs - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 S&P Global PMIs - 13:45
🔸 🇬🇧 Gfk Consumer Confidence - 23:01
🔸 🇯🇵 Inflation Rate / CPI - 23:30

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

🌙 Intuit (INTU) 🇺🇸
☀️ Medtronic (MDT) 🇺🇸
☀️ Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 🇨🇦
☀️ Meituan (MPNGY) 🇨🇳
🌙 Workday (WDAY) 🇺🇸
☀️ NetEase (NTES) 🇨🇳 (released)
☀️ National Grid (NGG) 🇬🇧
☀️ Autodesk (ADSK) 🇺🇸
🌙 Ross Stores (ROST) 🇺🇸
🌙 Singapore Telecommunications (SGAPY) 🇸🇬
☀️ Dollar Tree (DLTR) 🇺🇸
(...more with market cap <$20B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

23 May 2024 00:08

✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2433.47)
✅* 21.5 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 180.02|*w/ re-entry in profit)🔄
✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2421.57)
✴️/(❌*) 21.5 - USD/CAD - LONG ↗️ (open - in profit| or SL - 1.36297*)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 1.36847 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 1.36943 🔄

3/4 - (1 - open position | or Success Rate: 75%)

TODAY :

✴️/(❌*) 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - deep off-profit|or CLSD ~2,390)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2369.87 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 2408.77
✅ 22.5 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (CLSD ~77.251)
✴️/(✅*) 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit|or CLSD ~2,390)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2369.87 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 2408.77
✅ 22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18686.10)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 18686.10 | TP ✅ @: 18606.60
✴️ 22.5 - GS - LONG ↗️ (just entered - slightly in profit)
✴️ 22.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (just entered)

*if closed near/at $2,390

Rather chaotic day with very thin trading again - with the (strong) exception of gold (for a change) actually traded well. The correction (and subsequent panic selling) in gold hit us. Most of you have probably already closed your initial position out of profit (possibly deep out of profit). From a fundamental perspective, gold has seen little headwind but remains in a very bearish momentum). Slight additional selling could occur in Asian trading, but markets should stabilize. Fed minutes - nothing new, Nvidia with no uncertainty for the markets. We set a bad optional SL on our USD/CAD - I see most of you stayed LONG. I set the SL too tight - but got back in 📸. We should have traded the bullish USD more today (for example against the AUD or CHF/JPY) - we expect the USD to stabilize. We traded the sentiment-dependent indices well today (or let's see what the Dow Jones does tomorrow).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 22:58

❗️ EARLY LOOK: Nvidia with another very strong quarter / revenue up 262% YoY / strong forecast / 10 to 1 split

Nvidia +3.7% (after-hours)

Nvidia the AI enabler and the most important company in the last ~15 months report Q1 that comfortably beat expectations for sales and earnings, and provided a strong forecast for the current quarter. The chip / AI giant also announced a 10 to 1 split and a 150% dividend raise.

EPS: $6.12 (adjusted) vs. $5.59 (adjusted) expected
Revenue: $26.04 billion vs. $24.65 billion expected

Nvidia reported a 262% (!) jump in sales with a 427% (!!) jump in sales in it's data center (AI) category

Forecast:
Nvidia said it expected sales of $28 billion in the current quarter vs. $26.61 billion expected.

Another very strong earnings report. Considering this mega report (again), the current profits of around 3.5% seem very moderate. Nvidia still makes monopoly-like profits / and has monopoly-like margins. Especially in the data center category (which reflects the demand for Nvidia's AI chips like the H100 GPU), growth is absolutely insane.

So the AI growth story is completely intact. The Nasdaq 100 will probably reach a new ATH tomorrow (it is already trading at the ATH in after-hours trading). Big Tech has performed well in recent weeks, including this week which limited massive further gains overall - but AI has been the key driver for global equities / even more so for Wall Street. We can expect market sentiment to improve (further) now.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 21:58

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Goldman Sachs (GS) 🇺🇸

► Nvidia will present a strong earnings report - but I very much believe that the risk of investors not being enthusiastic enough is high. But the impact on other sectors should be limited - even for Goldman Sachs, which is heavily invested in tech companies.

► We are buying Goldman Sachs after another -2% session at the NYSE close and expect the investment banking giant to remain bullish. Goldman Sachs reported excellent revenue growth and increased its market share in investment banking.

► I still think Goldman Sachs is undervalued and expect continued strong EPS / sales growth.

🗣️ Tipp: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 120 - 130 (12,000% - 13,000%) trading Goldman Sachs (GS).

⏱ Trading Signal DELAYED by: 6+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed trading signals in the VIP Channel!

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 21:09

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
SL 🔑 @: 77.513
TP ✅ @: 77.056

WTI is on track to test the 77.00 $/barrel level. We are therefore updating our position slightly / tightening our SL. We see a cautious environment and general profit taking.

We also see that gold has temporarily fallen below $2,380. The sentiment environment for gold is actually positive, but we see a correction from this week's strong gains and some investors (wanting to) increase their margin ahead of bigger swings in the stock market (Nvidia reported).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 20:25

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18686.10
TP ✅ @: 18606.60

We found the perfect entry point into the Nasdaq (frighteningly perfect) and shorted the tech index against the market in the 18770 - 18775 range (session highs).

We now secure profits.

The Fed protocol was as boring as always. It's like reading a news paper from three weeks ago. But investors remain cautious ahead of the Nvidia report.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

22 May 2024 19:56

⚡️ UPDATE BEFORE FED PROTOCOL 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

We see concerns about a rather hawkish Fed protocol / hawkish outlook supporting the USD / providing some headwinds to gold. I believe the most likely outcome is a short-term dip. Gold may then rise again (last month a big rally came post April 10).

There is no great way out of our position(s). You can close now (re-entries break-even / slightly in profit) / or near ✅ 2390. Or hold through - but we may see gold first dip to $2,370 before it will recover. It depends really on your trade size / risk management as well.

We may buy the Fed protocol dip (if it happen).

I don't see how the Fed protocol changes anything - the Fed will remain in wait-and-see. One cooler-than-expected inflation report is obv. not enough. I work with a wider SL now - SL 🔑 $2,365. But please only do if this movement is not crippling your account.