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05 Jun 2024 19:05

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 195.79 🔄
TP ✅ @: 196.87 🔄

Our Dow Jones hit TP for a nice profit. Also Microsoft hit the TP. Our Apple position is well in profit. We now secure again nice profits with Apple.

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05 Jun 2024 17:07

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
CAD/JPY
SL 🔑 @: 114.061 🔄
TP ✅ @: 113.761 🔄

WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
SL 🔑 @: 72.769 🔄
TP ✅ @: 73.987 🔄

Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 38659.70 🔄
TP ✅ @: 38777.90 🔄

Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 416.47 🔄
TP ✅ @: 419.87 🔄
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 419.70 - 419.90 🔄

We hit the perfect timing in buying the dip in the Dow Jones and positioned us against the market after the strong US PMI data surprise (much stronger than expected and in contrast to recent data showing a cooling business activity). Congratulations - what a trade / timing against the market.

We also tighten the SL of our WTI position a bit.

Microsoft will soon hit our TP (you can keep it at 419.93 or update 419.87). You can alternatively close now.

edit: sorry initial Microsoft entry missing on the screenshot

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05 Jun 2024 16:38

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► The US purchasing managers' data came in significantly better than expected - in stark contrast to the recent weak US purchasing managers' data and the signs of a weakening US economy. The US data continue to surprise, remain contradictory and confuse investors. Most recently, the US PMI data was at a multi-year low, while today's US ISM services activity is at an 18-month high - the data is very contradictory indeed.

► The strong PMI data has driven more investors back into cyclical / growth sectors. I believe this is only temporary and gains will spread.

► We are seeing good data overall. Positive US growth/economic data is positive as long as the labor market doesn't tighten further and inflation doesn't pick up (which is often the case when consumer spending continues to rise). A resilient US economy is positive. So is the easing labor market data.

► In addition, the Bank of Canada was the first G7 central bank to cut interest rates, as we expected. Our CAD/JPY 🔄 is well in profit (we remain SHORT for now), but set an in-profit SL 🔑 114.061. Rising rate cut expectations are also positive for Wall Street, but favor inflows into growth stocks.

► We buy the drop in the Dow Jones range 38600 - 38625* (and thus into negative territory) and expect the Dow Jones to rise again.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Jun 2024 15:45

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🔰
BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 BHP (BHP) 🇦🇺(🇺🇸)

We are benefiting strongly from further broad gains in New York as we are broadly LONG on Wall Street. Further weak labor market data is now driving stocks higher as investors are increasingly optimistic that the Fed will start cutting rates (in Q4).

🔹 Apple (+0.5%) remains bullish. We continue to expect a positive sentiment market for Apple. The second most valuable company in the world (after Microsoft) continues to benefit from investors looking for slightly more "defensive" stocks - and remains cautiously optimistic overall. Citi agrees with us and recommends to "BUY" Apple. We set a TP ✅ @: 195.84 (or close near $196+ if Apple shoots straight up like yesterday).

🔹 Citigroup (+0.4%) opens positive, but the rising rate cut expectation is not really supporting the banks as they have done good business with the higher rates. We are therefore looking for an exit soon and are now setting a tight TP ✅ @: 61.97. Citi remains very attractively valued.

🔹 McDonald's (+0.1%) opens little changed, but the defensive sector will continue to benefit from a rotation from growth stocks to more defensive / value stocks.

🔹 Microsoft (+0.4%) opens well near 418.00 and could trigger our TP, which would only require a further 0.35% rise after the open (at +0.4%) to reach our TP. We tighten our SL 🔑 @: 413.39.

► We position ourselves LONG in the materials sector, which performed significantly worse than other sectors, especially yesterday. Today we see improved risk sentiment, some headwinds for the USD and overall higher commodity prices. We are buying the sharp fall in BHP (BHP closed more than 2.2% lower yesterday). BHP opens almost unchanged in New York and we find an entry point in the 58.00 - 58.20 range.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 900 - 1000 (90,000% - 100,000%) trading BHP (BHP).

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05 Jun 2024 15:03

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2337.43 🔄
TP ✅ @: 2348.47 🔄

Our gold position is deep in profit already. We quickly set an in-profit SL.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Jun 2024 13:59

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SELL NOW 🔽 CAD/JPY
⚠️ Increased volatility & Risk; BoC rate decision

► The JPY is the weakest currency today and corrects considerably after two days of significant gains. Increased expectations of interest rate cuts in the US supported the JPY, which moved up from its multi-year lows.

► Ahead of the important US economic data, we see some investors returning to the USD. Possibly slightly better than expected ADP data could initially support the USD and weigh slightly on the JPY - but a disappointing services PMI later in the day should keep hopes of rate cuts alive. We are SHORT on the USD.

► Chances are good that the Bank of Canada will be the first G7 central bank to cut rates today since central banks began tightening monetary policy in 2022, and if not, then at least give a clear outlook for a first rate cut in July. Although BoC Governor Tiff Macklem will remain rather cautious, the time seems ripe for a rate cut as even Canadian inflation surprised to the downside in the latest readings.

► While Canadian GDP growth remains intact, record immigration-driven population growth makes it difficult to read the underlying dynamics of GDP growth, consumption and inflation. The real GDP report showed a sharper slowdown than expected by most economists and the Bank of Canada - another good reason for a cut.

► Inflation in Japan (Tokyo) has risen again. Bond yields also remain high (they have reached the 1% level for the 10-year JP). There is a high probability that the Bank of Japan will continue to reduce its bond purchases and that yields will continue to rise. In the meantime, bond yields outside Japan have largely cooled.

► If the Bank of Canada does not cut rates, the CAD/JPY could initially rise by 30-60 pips before the prospect of a rate cut in July keeps gains in check. Then we can improve our entry. We now find an entry range 114.100 - 141.200 - about ~100 pips higher than session low.

🗣️ Tip: You can multiply your usual trade size by ~ 1.10 - 1.20 (115% - 125%) when trading CAD/JPY

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 22:52

✅ 3.6- US30- LONG ↗️ (TP - 38722.30) 🔄
✅ 3.6- AMZN- LONG ↗️ (TP - 177.37)
✴️ 3.6- C- LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 62.59 🔄
✴️ 3.6- USOIL- LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 72.633 | TP ✅ @: 73.987 🔄
✅ 3.6- NAS100- LONG ↗️ (TP - 18597.3)
✅ 3.6- AMD- LONG ↗️ (SL -162.69) 🔄 📸

3/6 - (2 open positions)

TODAY :

❌ 4.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2321.37 / or CLSD in profit)
✅ 4.6 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 7956.70)
✅ 4.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 194.33)
✅ 4.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2324.87)
✅ 4.6 - USD/CHF - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.89017)
✴️ 4.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (open - slightly in-profit)
✴️ 4.6 - MCD - LONG ↗️ (open - slightly in-profit)
✴️ 4.6 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - just entered)

AMD was an underperformer today, but hit our SL shortly after the NYSE opened. We also made a big profit on Nvidia yesterday - given today's additional gains on Nvidia (new ATH), our SL trigger was certainly a little less pleasing retrospectively.

Overall, it was a good day for us and we are gradually positioning ourselves in more defensive assets. However, today's stock market performance was surprisingly positive as hopes for interest rate cuts outweighed concerns about a possible slowdown in the US economy.

Have a pleasant evening,
Rob✌️

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 22:14

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 EUR/USD

► US Treasury yields close the day near daily lows as further weakening data (JOLTS labor market data today) points to a slowdown in the US economy. In particular, an easing in the labor market is seen as key to the Fed starting to cut interest rates.

► While yields in most Eurozone countries are also falling, we see greater demand for US bonds (=as well as generally more room to the downside for US bond yields).

► Tomorrow's Eurozone purchasing managers' indices will come with no surprise, but show that the service sector in the Eurozone continues to show solid growth - while the latest US purchasing managers' indices showed a slowdown in business activity.

► The EUR/USD remains on its way back towards 1.09000+. A rate cut by the ECB later this week would widen the interest rate differential between the ECB and the Fed, but a cut is already priced in. I expect a more "hawkish rate cut" (i.e. in conjunction with hawkish rhetoric).

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04 Jun 2024 20:44

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
USD/CHF
SL 🔑 @: 0.89017
TP ✅ @: 0.88863 🔄

Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 411.39 🔄
TP ✅ @: 419.47

Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 194.33 🔄
TP ✅ @: 195.77

We do not want to overtrade the market here. There are still clear signs that the market is looking to position itself more defensively - such as the outperformance of defensive sectors - although we are also seeing a strong growth sector today, benefiting from further sharp falls in yields and higher rate cut expectations following weaker than expected labor market data. We also see strong bonds - also a rather defensive pattern. Gold remains underperforming for having so much fundamental tailwind.

We are tightening the TP for USD/CHF. We also raise the SLs for MSFT and APPL. Microsoft is at $415.00, where we expected short-term resistance. Apple remains bullish.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 17:41

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2324.87
TP ✅ @: 2329.67

We give gold slightly more room to rebound back to (near) 2300 and tighten our SL.

Also our USD/CHF is deep in profit already - we stay SHORT.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 16:57

⚡️ FREE RAPID VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 USD/CHF

► We can trade the falling US yields not only with gold - which remains volatile - but also by positioning ourselves SHORT in the USD. We generally see a push towards safety, which is relatively supportive of the USD overall today. It therefore makes sense to trade against a currency that is benefiting even more than the USD from the current cautious sentiment surrounding economic concerns in the US - such as the CHF or JPY

► Rising hopes of interest rate cuts in the US would mean a lower interest rate spread between the Fed and the SNB

► The JPY and CHF would rally strongly if the Fed were to start easing monetary conditions - especially given the US government's massive debt problem

► We continue to see a short-term (medium-term) uptrend for the CHF and the USD/CHF, which will retest or probably break through the 0.89000 level. We use the current short-term spike back to ~ 0.89250.

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04 Jun 2024 15:54

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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸

We see a market that is increasingly concerned about the growth prospects of the US economy. Value and more defensive stocks will outperform for the time being. However, Wall Street is also benefiting from lower yields and increased expectations of interest rate cuts.

🔹 The Dow Jones (- 0.2 %) is down slightly today, weighed down by losses in cyclical companies, tech companies, financials and energy. The Dow Jones generally benefits from the fact that it is more defensive than the S&P 500 (and of course the Nasdaq). We tighten our price target ✅ @: 38722.30 slightly and keep our SL.

🔹 AMD (- 0.2 %) opens slightly weaker as other growth stocks are also facing headwinds due to concerns about the US economy. We have a tight (in-profit) SL at 🔑: 162.69, which could be triggered. That would be fine, because we want to get out of growth stocks for a bit first.

🔹 Citigroup (- 0.7 %) opens lower as financials (especially in Europe) face headwinds. Citigroup remains cheap. We set a TP at ✅ @: 62.59.

🔹 Microsoft (- 0.3 %) opens little changed but sees some headwinds as a typical growth stock. We expect Microsoft to remain in sideways movement for now (range 408 - 415).

► We are not pessimistic overall - especially after strong earnings from Big Tech and AI companies (which have been key to the strong performance of the S&P 500 over the last 15+ months). However, we have to trade the increasingly cautious markets - which means a rotation out of risk-sensitive stocks. The sentiment environment is almost ideal for Apple as investors want to stay in the tech sector but are looking for more safety. As I said last week, we should stay LONG in Apple anyway as Apple is benefiting from some profit taking in other tech stocks that are more volatile/risk sensitive than Apple. We want to position LONG in Apple and expect the iPhone inventor to remain bullish. We find an entry point range $193.50 - $194.00.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 320 - 340 (32.000% - 34.000%) when trading Apple (APPL).

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Good entry here in Apple (currently below near 193.25 📈).

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04 Jun 2024 14:02

📣 Dear SmartTrader Community!

We started our SmartTrader Community two weeks ago 💬
...in which you can connect with all other SmartTrader members.

🔒 Currently it's only open for SmartTrader VIP members.

Over the past years, I’ve missed engaging with our community, and I’m thrilled to connect with all of you - whether new or long-term SmartTrader members. However, our new SmartTrader Community is not about me; it's about you and for you.

We aim to bring together like-minded individuals to discuss markets, strategies, investing, and everything related to financial markets and trading, as well as anything else that matters to you - or maybe doesn’t matter that much 😉.

We envision our new SmartTrader Community growing into a space where traders of all experience levels can share insights, learn from each other, and support one another. Unlike most other trading communities, we are committed to fostering a space free from scams and unwelcoming atmospheres. We strive to be open, respectful, and inclusive, providing a safe and supportive environment for everyone. This has always been our approach - we want to be different, better, 100% trustworthy, supportive, and fully transparent.

Most of the SmartTrader Team is also looking forward to connecting with you including our SmartTrader Community Manager Isabella. We are all very excited.

Best,
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04 Jun 2024 13:43

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷
SL 🔑 @: 7938.90
TP ✅ @: 7958.70 (my position already hit TP - just now at 7956.70)

The CAC indeed found (also technical) support in the range 7910 - 7920 - a strong support level (down to 7900) since end of February. We found the perfect entry completely against the market.

We now set a tight TP and bring a nice profit home. We see still cautious markets with investors waiting for more US data that may (or not) confirm that the US economy is slowing. We now see a market which reacts again "normally" - meaning negatively to negative data.

We generally see still a pessimistic market sentiment with rising signs of a flight to safety - but the CAC is oversold and remains in rebound mode (for now).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 11:45

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Tuesday, June 04

❗️ Global markets are becoming nervous amid growing concerns about a slowdown in the US economy

► European markets are opening lower as concerns about a weakening US economy also weighs on sentiment in Europe despite increased expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year. The Stoxx 600 index fell by over 0.6%. Energy stocks, particularly BP and TotalEnergies, also fell on worries about crude oil oversupply. The ECB is expected to make a first rate cut on Thursday. Meanwhile in Germany, unemployment rate remained steady at 5.9%.

► US stock futures inched lower after a downbeat manufacturing PMI report on Monday, yet another report that shows rising weakness in the US economy which sparked anxieties about the outlook of the US economy. Investors are closely following upcoming economic data releases, including the JOLTS Job Openings (due later at 14:00), ISM Services PMI (due June 5), and the non-farm payroll report (due June 7). These reports will be crucial for gauging the Fed's policy trajectory in the coming months. A strong jobs report could bolster the case for the Fed to maintain its current policy stance but would also show that the US economy is robust, while a weaker report could reignite expectations for a rate cut later this year.

► Asian markets displayed a mixed performance. Japan's Nikkei closed marginally lower, while China's Shanghai Composite managed a modest gain. India's Sensex witnessed a significant drop of over 6% on Tuesday, as early election results indicated a less favorable outcome for Prime Minister Modi's party in contrast to expectations a day before. Australian markets also closed lower following the release of business inventories, current account deficit, and corporate profits data.

► Oil prices continued their downward trend, extending losses from the previous session. WTI Crude oil fell further and now stabilized near $72.5/barrel. Concerns about a potential global supply glut overshadowed any short-term supply disruptions. The price of gold dipped after a strong rebound yesterday and is trading near $2,333/oz. Gold is supported by lower yields and a weaker USD but sees temporary headwinds with investors being concerned about a stronger pullback in gold after recent profit taking.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇦🇺 Retail Sales - 01:30 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 07:55 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

🌙 CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) 🇺🇸
☀️ Ferguson (FERG) 🇺🇸
🌙 Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) 🇺🇸
(...a few more with market cap <$12B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Jun 2024 17:11

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 38686.70 🔄
TP ✅ @: 38777.90

We pull our SL a bit tighter for our Dow Jones position (now already more than 100 points in profit)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Jun 2024 16:50

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 416.47 🔄
TP ✅ @: 419.93 🔄

Our MSFT position is back in profit. We can slightly widen our TP and close near $420.00. We significantly tighten our SL.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Jun 2024 15:46

⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸

► In case you closed Apple with a big profit already (near / above $196; congratulations!). We are getting now back in near $194.80 - $195.10. We want to stay LONG in the tech giant which benefits from generally more cautious investors that, however, want to generally stay LONG in tech / AI related stocks.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 320 - 340 (32.000% - 34.000%) when trading Apple (APPL).

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Jun 2024 15:09

📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Easing US labor market data supports rate cut hopes; US PMI data in focus

Stocks in Europe and the US rallied (further) after yesterday's weaker than expected labor market data and now received an additional boost after the ADP private payrolls report seems to confirm a slowdown in the US labor market. An easing in the (still tight) US labor market, which has also kept wage inflation high, is an important precondition for the Fed to start cutting interest rates.

Data shows that hiring at US companies rose at the slowest pace since the start of the year in May. According to the ADP Research Institute, private sector hiring rose by 152,000 in May, compared to the median estimate of +175,000 and well below the downwardly revised 188,000 new jobs in April. The unemployment rate remained unchanged.

Yields stabilized in pre-market US trading after the recent sharp decline, but are now trending lower again. While the weaker US labor market data also points to a slowdown in the US economy, the positive impact on rate cut expectations currently outweighs concerns about an economic slowdown.

However, a sharp decline in the US purchasing managers' indices (the S&P report will be published today at 13:45 UTC+0 / the more important ISM report at 14:00 UTC+0) could lead to concerns about a slowdown in the US economy taking over again, which would also lead to slower growth in corporate profits.

The USD continues to face headwinds as expectations rise that economic conditions are approaching a level that would allow the Fed to pivot. The Bank of Canada could cut rates as early as today, making it the first G7 central bank to do so before the ECB is likely to begin easing monetary conditions tomorrow with a 25 basis point rate cut.

The hope of a rate cut has improved risk sentiment and brought equity prices back near record highs. We continue to see cautious optimism, which has also helped to stabilize commodity prices. The further decline in yields will continue to weigh on the USD and support USD/yield-sensitive investments such as gold, but also oil prices.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

June 05, 2024

🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/↕️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/↕️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️/↕️
Financial Stocks ➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️/↗️
Energy Stocks ↗️/➡️ (trimming recent sharp losses)
Materials Stocks ↗️/➡️ (trimming recent sharp losses)

💱 Forex
AUD ↗️ (recovering after two days slide; benefiting from improved risk sentiment and higher Fed rate cut hopes)
EUR, GBP ↗️/➡️
USD ↗️/↕️/↘️ (rebound after yesterday's sharp slide; increased Fed rate cut expectations continue to weigh)
CAD ↗️/↕️/↘️ (CAD with headwinds if BoC cuts rate / or gives dovish outlook)
CHF ↘️/↗️
JPY ↘️/➡️

⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/↕️
Oil prices ↗️/↕️ (rebounding after sell-off; benefiting from rate cut hopes)
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↕️
Gold ↗️/↕️ (benefiting from rate cut hopes and lower yields, still with resistance in the range $2,340 - $2,350)

⚡️Cryptos ↗️/↕️ (benefiting from rate cut hopes and lower yields; BTC open for further gains towards $73K)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

⚠️ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Jun 2024 14:40

⚡️ LIVE TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️

► We see that the ADP payrolls report was significantly weaker than expected. This is good for our positions as we are broadly LONG in US equities and SHORT in USD.

► The expectation of weaker labor market data (ahead of the NFP on Friday) will further support bonds (= lower yields). This means more fundamental tailwinds for gold.

► We see gold little changed at the moment (even slightly lower) ahead of the ISM data (which should also support gold unless the PMIs surprise significantly higher). We enter gold here below $2,330 - $2,334 and expect gains. US Treasury yields have now fallen after initial slight gains.

ADP labor market figures
May: reported 152K 📉; previously 188K, expected 175K

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 24+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

🥇
2️⃣3️⃣3️⃣3️⃣📈

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🖥 VT Markets (🇩🇪🇦🇹🇨🇭)
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🖥 PU Prime (🇩🇪🇦🇹🇨🇭)
🖥 Libertex (🇩🇪🇦🇹🇨🇭)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇩🇪🇦🇹🇨🇭)

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05 Jun 2024 10:57

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Wednesday, June 5

❗️ European stocks follow Wall Street higher & rise after US labor market data that boosts Fed rate cut expectations

► European stocks advance after a negative session as signs of a cooling US labor market increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Stoxx 600 index saw significant gains (+0.4%), led by retailers such as Inditex, which rallied over 5% following a strong trading update. Economic data indicated a positive outlook, with the Eurozone's composite PMI rising to 52.2 from 51.7, despite a slight decrease in the services PMI to 53.2 from 53.3, marking the strongest increase in economic activity since May 2023. Meanwhile, investors are eyeing the European Central Bank’s anticipated rate cut from a record-high 4% on Thursday, which could further fuel the rally in European stocks.

► US markets are focused on new labor market data, with job openings hitting their lowest since 2021, reinforcing speculation about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors await key economic data later today, including private payroll figures and the latest reading on the services sector. S&P 500 futures are slightly up (+0.15%) after gains yesterday, and Treasury yields edged up slightly to 4.35% after a significant drop on Tuesday. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as traders balance between hopes for rate cuts and concerns about economic slowdown.

► Asian stocks were mixed, with Indian markets outperforming following political stability signals from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's coalition partner, driving the Nifty 50 Index up by more than 2%. Japan's services PMI was revised upward to 53.8, reflecting continued, slow growth, while wage increases lag slightly behind inflation. However the Nikkei 225 fell 0.9% amid broader market declines. Chinese stocks fluctuated, with May’s services activity expanding at the fastest pace in ten months, reflected in the Caixin services PMI rising to 54.0. Investors in Asia remain vigilant ahead of upcoming economic data releases from China later this week and potential policy measures from the Shanghai forum.

► In commodities, oil price fell on Tuesday, influenced by reports of increased US crude stockpiles and concerns about demand while supply will rise in upcoming months. WTI Crude oil recovered slightly yesterday and remains stable for now, trading at around $73.2/barrel. Gold continued to show strength, with prices rising to $2,335/oz, supported by lower yields, a weaker USD, and an increased confidence of rate cuts this year. This is in line with the analysis of our chief analyst Robert Lindner. Similar to gold, Bitcoin also made progress and exceeded the $70,000 mark following increased rate cut bets and a weaker USD as well as generally improved risk sentiment.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇯🇵 Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇦🇺 GDP Growth Rate - 01:30 (released)
🔸 🇨🇳 Caixin Services & Composite PMI - 01:45 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 Industrial Production - 06:45 (released)
🔸 🇪🇸 HCOB Services & Composite PMI - 07:15 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹 HCOB Services & Composite PMI - 07:45 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB Services & Composite PMI - 07:50 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB Services & Composite PMI - 07:55 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB Services & Composite PMI - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services & Composite PMI - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 PPI - 09:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change - 12:15
🔸 🇨🇦 S&P Global Services & Composite PMI - 13:30
🔸 🇨🇦 BoC Interest Rate Decision - 13:45
🔸 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services & Composite PMI - 13:45
🔸 🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 14:30

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀️ Inditex (IDEXY) 🇪🇸 (released)
🌙 Lululemon Athletica (LULU) 🇨🇦
☀️ Dollar Tree (DLTR) 🇺🇸
(...a few more with market cap <$14B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 22:28

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 23.04 - 28.05 (26 trading days)

127 / 148 = 85.8% (🏆) Success Rate

(April 22 - 5/7 = 71.4% SR dropped out)

✅ 29.5 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 0.66116)
✅ 29.5 - NVDA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1110.6)
✅ 29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2336.18)

3/3 = 100% Success Rate 🏆

✅ 30.5 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 5260.90)
✅ 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2349.37)
❌ 30.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18547.70)
❌ 30.5 - SQ - LONG ↗️ (SL - 64.23)
✅ 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2354.47|CLSD ~2346)
✴️ 30.5 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit) 🔄
👉 SL 🔑 @: 411.39 | TP ✅ @: 419.47

3/6 - (1 open position)

✅ 31.5 - EUR/CAD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1.48263)
✅ 31.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 38346.90)
🟨 MIXED 31.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (several closing) 🔄
(❌ Initial Entry / ✅ Re-Entry 1 / ✅ Re-Entry 2)
✅ 31.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.66697)
❌ 31.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 174.23)
❌*(✅) 31.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18583.90|+re-entry)
✅ 31.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 467.43; pot. positive slippage)
✅ 31.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP -38776.90| clsd - @: 38775 - 38800)
✅ 31.5 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1128.97)

6/9 = 66.7% Success Rate
*Nasdaq 100 considered loss as SL (off-profit) triggered for some members; Gold trade(s) not considered as WON.

—-

Microsoft closed the day up 0.62%, but the initial entry is still a bit off profit. The gold price remained volatile today, but closed significantly lower overall despite significant fundamental tailwinds. Gold is experiencing some headwinds from the sharp losses in other commodity prices - including precious metal prices. Gold remains attractive in the medium term.

Our success rate over the five-week period (23.04 - 28.05) rose to 85.8% - an incredible success rate 👏

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 21:37

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🔰
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸

► The markets have responded positively to the softer labor market data, which shows that a slight cooling of the labor market data is still seen as positive, as the Fed wants to see a less tight labor market before it eases monetary policy conditions. However, signs of economic cooling are not a tailwind for growth stocks.

► We consider Apple to be a rather defensive tech stock and see a good (re-)entry here at 194.00 - 194.25 - or close to our SL.

► We are also increasing our defensive positioning and are also going LONG in (VIP ONLY), which is still in a V-shape recovery and is benefiting from the ongoing rotation into defensive stocks. We also see other defensive stocks, such as Coca-Cola, (VIP ONLY) or healthcare stocks, outperforming.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 300 - 320 (30,000% - 32,000%) trading Apple (APPL).

🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel


———

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 19:44

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
USD/CHF
SL 🔑 @: 0.89017
TP ✅ @: 0.88767

WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
SL 🔑 @: 72.633
TP ✅ @: 73.987 (break-even)

Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 410.23
TP ✅ @: 419.47

Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 194.17
TP ✅ @: 195.77

We update positions.

Our USD/CHF is deep in profit after the pair broke through 0.89000 as expected. Given the CHF's weakness in the previous month and the SNB's much more dovish stance compared to the Fed (and most other central banks), there is further downside potential for the pair as expectations rise that Fed rate cuts are approaching. I went SHORT into the USD/CHF a little earlier but have increased the position size as we are keen to take advantage of falling US Treasury yields.

We are tightening our SL for our WTI position. We are holding our TP at break-even.

Microsoft is sideways / flat for today. We want to reduce our risk in the growth sector.

We want to stay LONG in Apple and see a strong sentiment market for the iPhone inventor. We set an in-profit SL. We will re-enter at a better price if our SL is triggered.

Congratulations - a very good incremental repositioning in a market looking for direction.


———

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🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 17:20

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2323.37
TP ✅ @: 2328.87

We need to update gold a bit earlier - pulling the SL in profit / break-even (not waiting for my update). However, as gold remains volatile, we can also no work with very tight SLs even with gold fundamentally and technically supported. We can easily find better re-entries in gold.

Gold continues to see sentiment swings with investors taking profit and currently preferring bonds as safe haven asset of choice (even as that make medium-term little sense).

Our gold re-entry is now well in profit. We found the perfect entry. We set an in-profit tight SL and a tight TP.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 16:54

⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► Improving risk sentiment drove equities higher (and the Dow Jones into our TP), but also caused gold to slump again after it hit resistance at around $2,338. Gold will continue to see profit taking, even though yields have fallen sharply, which lowers the opportunity cost of owning gold and makes investing in gold more attractive. We should have closed gold in profit earlier (near 2,336 - 2,339; I see many of you did) / worked with an in-profit SL.

► We now see gold below $2,320 and in the $2,314 - $2,317 range (yesterday's low) - that's where we re-enter. We are now working with a tighter TP and a tight SL.

► The somewhat cooler than expected US labor market figures, which fell to their lowest level in over three years, have further boosted demand for safe havens and bonds, meaning that yields (may) fall further. Incoming orders in industry were better than expected, giving a somewhat mixed picture. The slight slowdown in the labor market was received positively by investors, as the tight situation in the labor market is one of the main reasons why inflation remains stubbornly high.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 35+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel


———

🥇2️⃣3️⃣1️⃣6️⃣📈

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🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 15:09

📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Rate cut hopes remain which support bonds & stocks; Economic slowdown concerns weigh

Signs of a slowdown in the US economy continue to put pressure on global equities. European stocks in particular fell sharply, with losses in the energy, cyclical and banking sectors. US stocks are also pointing to a lower open in pre-market trading as investors continue to weigh concerns about the health of the US economy against optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the fourth quarter.

Yields continue to fall as bonds benefit from safe-haven demand and increasing expectations of rate cuts. We are also seeing increasing signs that weak data is increasingly being seen as bad news for the growth sector again, rather than these sectors then benefiting from increased rate cut expectations. With equities still expensive and close to all-time highs, we are generally not yet seeing pessimism - but investors are becoming more cautious.

The increasing signs of a weakening US economy, which could lead to interest rate cuts, are also evident in the classic safe-haven currencies CHF and JPY, which have recovered some of their heavy losses of recent months.

Equities in Asia were mixed, with the exception of India, where stocks slumped when the count showed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party failed to win a majority of seats in the national elections.

The focus is now also turning to more US economic data, particularly labor market data such as today's job openings and Friday's NFPs. The labor market could help investors get a better picture of the outlook for the global/US economy and interest rates.

In the Eurozone, economic data has improved recently. Investors continue to expect a first rate cut from the ECB on Thursday, but possibly with hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde.

Rising rate cut hopes should limit near-term headwinds, but we are increasingly seeing investors, particularly in the US, question whether the US economy can remain resilient while inflation cools sufficiently, or whether the US economy needs to cool significantly first, which would also lead to a slowdown in corporate earnings.

We saw a recovery in the USD, while bond yields also fell in other regions. The USD is experiencing some demand as a perceived safe haven. The gold price gave back some of yesterday's strong gains, but continues to be supported by falling yields. Commodity prices, especially energy prices, are facing headwinds from worsening risk sentiment and today's likely temporary rebound in the USD.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

June 4, 2024

🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↘️/↕️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↘️/↕️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↘️/↕️
Financial Stocks ↘️/➡️
Defensive Stocks ↘️/➡️/↗️
Energy Stocks ↘️
Materials Stocks ↘️

💱 Forex
JPY, CHF ↗️ (benefiting from safe haven demand & increased Fed rate cut expectations)
USD ↗️/➡️ (rebound after yesterday's sharp slide; increased Fed rate cut expectations continue to weigh)
EUR, GBP ➡️
AUD, CAD ↘️

⚒ Commodity Markets ↘️/↕️
Oil prices ↘️/↕️ (remains with headwinds but may short-term rebound partially from oversold territory)
Natural Gas prices ↕️
Metal prices ↘️
Gold ↘️/↕️/↗️ (volatile but overall benefiting from falling yields and increasing safe haven demand)

⚡️Cryptos ↕️ (for now in sideways with BTC stuck in $67K - $70K)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

⚠️ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 14:00

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
SL 🔑 @: 72.267
TP ✅ @: 73.997 (near break-even)

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2321.37
TP ✅ @: 2339.49
(TP3 ✅ @: 2354.83 - position from last week)

We widen our SL for our gold position by $1.5. with gold potentially making a small dip below $2,325. We see gold fundamentally supported by falling yields (globally). However, we also see a rebound in the USD - also due to increased safe haven demand. Gold ultimately benefits from investors becoming increasingly concerned whether corporate revenue growth slows down.

We also set a tighter TP for our WTI position which is off-profit with oil falling a bit further on concerns about global growth, demand growth while supply will likely rise in upcoming months. We set a rater tight SL to limit potential losses. Also the rebound in the USD has a 30 - 40 (0.3% - 0.4%) basis points impact on oil prices.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 12:19

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷

► We are taking a LONG position in the CAC slightly below 7920. The CAC has found strong technical support in the 7900 - 7920 range over the last 3 1/2 months.

► The CAC and other European equities are under pressure from concerns about a slowdown in the global/US economy. The CAC is mainly weighed down by the weakness of TotalEnergies, where the oil price extends yesterday's heavy losses, Renault and the weakness of the French banking sector (Société Générale and BNP Paribas down more than 2%; Crédit Agricole down 1.5%).

► The markets will remain cautious until the ECB announces its decisions on Thursday, which will be followed by an eagerly awaited press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde. The ECB will make a rather hawkish rate cut - but it is still a rate cut - the first since 2016 and the first after the rapid hikes from 2022. In addition, the ECB knows that the European economy is weakening and monetary policy relief could help the ailing economy somewhat.

► We can see that the losses in the banking sector went far in France. Asian markets have been mixed but not negative. The important French luxury sector is flat. We expect the losses to be cut during the day and also expect technical buying at current levels.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 12 - 14 (1,200% - 1,400%) trading the CAC 40 (FRA_40).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———

🇫🇷7️⃣9️⃣1️⃣5️⃣📈

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

04 Jun 2024 10:55

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)

► Gold is slightly down during European trading despite further falling yields and a weaker USD. We see yields falling (also in the US) as investors have more appetite for safety and are buying bonds, also because they expect rate cuts to be imminent as the US economy finally cools down.

► If you still hold a LONG position, you should extend your SL a little (see SL) to make sure that your position is not closed in the current short-term dip (which may go a little further).

► Yesterday's weaker-than-expected US economic data caused yields to fall which also supported gold's rebound - also because a slowing economy is generally negative for equities. There are signs of normalization in that negative economic data is being perceived as negative again and the prospect of interest rate cuts is receding somewhat into the background as investors generally assume that the Fed will act if the slowdown in the economy continues.

► We find a good entry point into gold now below $2335 (range $2331 - $2334) and also see gold technically supported in the $2,325 - $2,330 range. Fundamentally, gold is benefiting in particular from the significantly lower yields and the weaker USD.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———

🥇📉2️⃣3️⃣3️⃣3️⃣📈

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Vantage (🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍) <- NEW
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)