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12 Jun 2024 14:17

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ Increased Risk & Volatility; Ahead of key economic report (US CPI)
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► We wanted to capitalize on the market's caution ahead of the CPI data - which our (second) Nasdaq SHORT did not do well due to Apple's mega performance yesterday. Now we see Apple slightly down in pre-market trading, but most components of the Nasdaq 100 are in the green - even with flat US Treasury yields. We see an optimistic market and less caution than expected ahead of today's US double whammy (US CPI data + Fed rate decision).

► We see a wait-and-see market, but generally optimistic that CPI data will continue to show moderate disinflation (albeit very slow) and that the Fed is unlikely to take a more hawkish stance just yet. I also believe that the CPI data is in line with expectations, showing moderate further disinflation. Expectations are reasonable and may even be undershot, e.g. if core inflation m/m comes in at 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. Headline inflation may also have cooled to 3.3% instead of the expected 3.4%. Although recent US economic data has been strong (strong hiring, strong purchasing managers' indices), I still believe we are currently seeing a slight economic slowdown in the US, which will also contribute to moderate inflation.

► We are positioning us LONG in the Nasdaq 100 as we expect a positive reaction to the CPI data. But as always, this is a riskier trade as we have to assume that the data will be reported in a certain way. We are working with an SL and giving the Nasdaq room to rise. We enter the Nasdaq 100 now in the 19245 - 19265 range.

► Signs of continued disinflation will weigh on the recently stronger USD. We must therefore now enter with a tight SL for our GBP/USD 🔑 @: 1.27763 and a TP that would be triggered if CPI data is more on the hotter side TP ✅ @: 1.27263.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-

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11 Jun 2024 23:09

✴️ 10.6 - EUR/AUD - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.62989 🔄
✅ 10.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19072.20) 🔄
✅ 10.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 195.99| or CLSD 197.00+) 🔄

2/3 - (1 open position)

TODAY :

✅ 11.6 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.27253)
✴️ 11.6 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 111.29 | TP ✅ @: 112.39
❌ 11.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19202.60)
✴️ 11.6 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - near break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.27167 🔄
✴️ 11.6 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (open - break-even)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 18456.30 | TP ✅ @: 18357.60
✴️ 11.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2313.23 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 2319.24 🔄

The start to today's session was as expected and the initial movements after the NYSE opening were also as expected. Apple's massive gains skewed the performance of Wall Street indices (especially the Nasdaq 100) a bit and pushed them higher. We had expected Apple to do well yesterday and get more positive analyst votes today - the perfect prediction - however, we missed much of Apple's mega gains today as we had previously closed (deep) in profit.

We see an optimistic market where stocks continue to make gains as well. Investors are generally optimistic that tomorrow's Fed monetary policy update will be dovish rather than hawkish. I also believe stocks can benefit from tomorrow's Fed rate decision and a dot plot that still likely shows two rate cuts for 2024. US CPI data will also play an important role tomorrow and create volatility.

We traded well today/yesterday and do not want to overtrade the markets ahead of the important data, which is very difficult to predict.

I am updating the gold position here again with a slightly wider TP and an in-profit SL. We can also set TPs for our two FX positions.

Your Robert

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11 Jun 2024 22:17

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2307.39 (or in-profit SL ~ 2312.98)
TP ✅ @: 2318.87

We have found a good entry point into gold. I got in a little earlier as I expected gold to find support in the $2,305 - $2,307 range as yields flattened. However, yields then fell sharply following very strong demand for $39 billion worth of 10-year US government bonds - which was then the trigger for yield-sensitive growth stocks to move higher.

We tighten our TP slightly as I would have expected gold to be higher already. We expect our TP to be reached overnight or in early Asian trading.

You can also work with a tight in-profit SL if you like.


———-

🥇📈2️⃣3️⃣2️⃣0️⃣

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11 Jun 2024 20:27

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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► We see that yields have fallen sharply following exceptionally high demand for US 10Y Treasuries. Demand was very strong with a bid/ask ratio of 2.67 - the highest since February 2022, the month before the tightening cycle and thus the strong headwind for bonds began. In contrast, demand for US 1Y Treasuries was lower than expected.

► Bonds have risen sharply and extended their recent gains. Investors are still expecting rate cuts, although the Fed may be more hawkish tomorrow.

► In general, we are seeing a cautious market and concerns about instability in Europe, which is supporting gold. While French President Emmanuel Macron has stated that he will remain president and keep his office (regardless of the outcome of the elections) - the market is concerned that his gamble could go in the wrong direction (I expect Macron's move to be a shot in his own foot).

► We now see yields 6 basis points lower. While I expect yields to stabilize ahead of tomorrow's US CPI data, gold has more room to rally. We enter gold here in the 2310 - 2312.50 area and work with a rather tight TP at (VIP ONLY)...

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-

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11 Jun 2024 17:09

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SELL NOW* 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)

► We should have traded the Nasdaq with a wider SL as the volatility during NYSE opening was too high for a tight SL - but we closed (well in) profit or even in TP in case you worked with a wider SL. We now see the Nasdaq finding (temporary) support at 19000 and rebounding thanks to very strong gains of Apple (up more than 5%).

► We want to stay SHORT and expect cautious trading to continue to weigh on stocks / growth stocks. Apple's gains are very isolated.

► The Nasdaq would be much lower if it wouldn't be for Apple's very strong gains (currently at +5.3% - while nearly all other tech stocks are trading in the red). Apple saw sharp losses yesterday with traders selling Apple after they found the AI update disappointing - a mistake - especially with investors and institutional traders going back into Apple (we saw the positive analyst calls today such as from Morgan Stanley that we expected). We traded against the market yesterday and bought Apple at the bottom -> congratulations.

► Apple has a weight of nearly 9% in the Nasdaq 100 - which means that the 5.3% gain of Apple is boosting the Nasdaq by ~0.5% (the Nasdaq is currently at +0.1% or without Apple at -0.4%).

► We see limited upside for Apple from here and expect the Nasdaq 100 to turn lower again. We find a great entry here near / at ATH (19125 - 19150*).

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

You can get a great re-entry into the Nasdaq 100 now.

1️⃣9️⃣1️⃣3️⃣0️⃣⬇️

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11 Jun 2024 16:06

Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸
Triggered TP ✅ @: 195.99 (for me) | you closed ~197.50+

We made the best possible overnight trade with Apple and bought the tech giant yesterday at the bottom. We now see Apple more than 3.5% higher and sharply outperforming all other (big) tech stocks that are mostly (deep) red.

If you are still in - I would close near $199.75 - $200.25 as we will likely see some technical (temporary) resistance near $200.00.

Congratulations - what a trade 🎆

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11 Jun 2024 15:15

📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Concerns about instability in Europe grow; Trades cautious ahead of US CPI & Fed meeting

Investor demand for safe-haven assets rose as concerns over political instability in Europe increased. Bonds also rose, causing US yields to give back some of yesterday's gains. Ahead of inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, more caution is generally warranted in the markets.

European shares fell significantly after a solid start to the day. The broad Stoxx 600 is more than 1% lower, extending its losses for the third day. Equities in the US are also lower. We see that the USD remains in demand and is benefiting from the rising demand for safe havens. The EUR weakened again.

The biggest losses were recorded on the French markets. The yield on 10-year bonds rose by 10 basis points to 3.32%, the sharpest two-day increase since the first months of the pandemic. This widened the gap to equivalent German bonds to its highest level since October. Traders focused on speculation that French President Emmanuel Macron is considering resigning if his party performs poorly in the upcoming parliamentary elections, which Macron called from a position of great weakness - a major risk/gamble that could easily or even likely go the wrong way. Uncertainty and concerns over the political upheaval in France will continue to weigh on market sentiment in Europe for some time to come.

Wall Street is still near ATHs, but investors are preparing for another volatile Wednesday with both the latest monthly US consumer price data and the Fed decision, as well as more inflation data from China and Germany (+Japan PPI).

The Fed is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus will be on the officials' interest rate forecasts. In particular, the dot plot and the question of whether the Fed expects just one or two more rate cuts will take center stage.

In the UK, an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate has increased the prospects of interest rate cuts later this year. Traders expect a first cut of a quarter point in November and see a 40% chance of a second cut the following month. I see more scope and pressure for the BoE to cut rates compared to the Fed.

I see many uncertainties that will make it very difficult for Wall Street to reach (new) ATHs again and therefore expect a slightly negative session in New York today. The concern that interest rates in the US will remain high for longer has recently rubbed off strongly on gold, but also on cryptocurrencies. I think that interest rate expectations have been reasonably adjusted, although I still believe that the market is too optimistic about short-term rate cuts by the Fed.

Gold can benefit from falling yields (due to demand for bonds), general demand for safe havens and more cautious investors.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

June 11, 2024

🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↕️/↘️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↕️/↘️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↕️/↘️
Financial Stocks ↕️/↘️/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️/↗️
Energy Stocks ➡️
Materials Stocks ↗️/➡️

💱 Forex
USD ↗️/➡️/↗️
GBP ↗️/➡️/↘️
JPY, CHF ↗️/➡️ (benefiting from safe haven demand, hopes of rate cuts)
CAD ➡️
AUD ➡️/↘️ (CAD with headwinds if BoC cuts rate / or gives dovish outlook)
EUR ↘️/➡️ (is short-term oversold on concerns about political instability in Europe)

⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/↕️
Oil prices ↗️/↕️/➡️
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↘️
Gold ↗️/↕️ (benefiting from lower yields / increased safe haven demand)

⚡️Cryptos ↘️/↕️ (stabilizing after recent slide, Bitcoin trying to move back to $68K - $70K later this week)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

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11 Jun 2024 12:43

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19078.70
TP ✅ @: 19003.60

European markets initially stabilized (as did the euro), but now we are seeing continued nervousness about the political upheaval in France, which is reviving concerns about political instability in Europe. In Germany we also have a government with the lowest level of popular support (since 1945).

We found an entry point into the Nasdaq 100 yesterday (near the highs of the day). Our position is about 50 points in profit. Caution is also warranted in the US, with a very volatile trading day ahead on Wednesday, with both the latest monthly US consumer price data and the Fed decision due.

We are setting a tight SL now in case the Nasdaq can push back near the ATH and chip stocks possibly rally (or Apple rallies strongly). Then we could find a better re-entry into the Nasdaq 100 (SHORT) ahead of the CPI data / Fed rate decision.


———-

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10 Jun 2024 23:34

(🟡*) 7.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2335.90|or CLSD 2334 - 2337)
✅ 7.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18980.6)
✅ 7.6 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2312.56)
✅ 7.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP 18984.20 / or TP 18981.10) 🔄
✅ 7.6 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 200.27|CLSD 200.50-.90, or open)

*break-even (only shared in VIP / taken out of statistic)

4/4 = 100% Success Rate 🏆

TODAY :

✴️ 10.6 - EUR/AUD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✴️ 10.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (open - break-even)
✴️ 10.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)

3/3 - (3 open positions)

I don't want to write much about June 7 - but I'm glad we ended the day (trading wise very) "positively". I'll do my best to get back to "business as usual" (as far as SmartTrader is concerned) starting tomorrow. Thanks again to my team SmartTrader and all community members 🙏

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10 Jun 2024 21:59

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BUY NOW* 🔼 Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸

► While we are likely seeing some profit taking heading into the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday, we are buying today's dip in Apple's share price (currently a bit more than -2%). The general market sentiment is good for Apple as investors become more cautious.

► Apple opened its highly anticipated developer conference with a keynote on Monday, unveiling a series of updates to its operating systems that focus on artificial intelligence to keep pace with the competition. Apple calls it the "next big step" for Apple. Apple's AI system, Apple Intelligence, offers personality and privacy, which makes me feel like one of the main problems (such as information privacy) of AI is being solved the right way - Apple's way.

► I understand the general disappointment as Apple didn't unveil anything that wasn't already expected, but it seems like an important step to catch up with competitors. Apple is opening up Apple Intelligence to other apps too - a good move for more innovation.

► The demo was impressive to me - but demos always look good. We'll have to see how well this works in reality, but in reality it's Apple's typical way of introducing new features gradually, and I don't think Apple is doing it wrong - even if the market was generally pessimistic about Apple's AI updates.

► Apple has also introduced ChatGPT integration into Siri (which was also expected), starting with the latest major voice model, ChatGPT-4o. When Siri needs to use ChatGPT, users are prompted with a pop-up asking if they want to share ChatGPT - again, the focus is on privacy.

► Many Apple buyers are not tech savvy - this also means that Apple needs to integrate AI seamlessly into its operating system. I get the impression that Apple is making a push very early on, with many features not yet fully clear - which may be a bit atypical, but shows that Apple understands the importance of catching up in the race for AI (integration). Apple's push for more AI (integration) is an overall positive sign for me and probably for the analysts too.

► We are buying the dip near the session lows 192.30- 192.50* and expect Apple to remain bullish. I also expect the investment banks to react more positively to Apple Intelligence than the market today.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 300 - 320 (30.000% - 32.000%) when trading Apple (APPL).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-

🍏📈1️⃣9️⃣5️⃣

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10 Jun 2024 13:47

✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2366.37)
✅ 6.6 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (CLSD - 18680.75| or 18675 - 18690)
✅ 6.6 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.08819) 🔄
✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2376.33)
✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2378.29) 🔄
✅ 6.6 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (clsd @: 18495 - 18505) 🔄

6/6 = 100% Success Rate 🏆

TODAY :

🟡* 7.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2335.90|or CLSD 2334 - 2337)
✅ 7.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18980.6)
✅ 7.6 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2312.56)
✴️ 7.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (open - break-even| or TP 18981.10)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 19067.60 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 18984.20 🔄
✅ 7.6 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 200.27|CLSD 200.50-.90, or open)

*break-even

3/5 - (1 open position)

✴️ 8.6 - EUR/AUD - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)

Without my personal tragedy, we would certainly have made more great trades on Friday, especially in view of the higher yields, the pressure on gold and the stronger USD. However, we still made good trades and remain well positioned. We also closed some of our remaining open positions very well on Friday.

I am currently on a flight to Singapore - I had to reschedule - originally I wanted to fly on Saturday. But I will be as active as possible. I have spotty internet here but will be available normally during the week.

We are adjusting the SL / TP of our Nasdaq 100 position a little if it hasn't reached your TP yet. We extend our SL a little and tighten our TP again. We see rising US Treasury yields putting some pressure on growth, but investors also see some upside in the strong hiring data and the recent stronger than expected purchasing managers' indices (which on the other hand reduce the Fed's rate cut expectations).

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10 Jun 2024 13:10

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BUY NOW 🔼 EUR/AUD

► We see the EUR under pressure. The single currency posted sharp losses on Friday (the sharpest fall in EUR/USD in almost two months), but the moves were USD-driven after better-than-expected US labor market data sent the USD sharply higher. Other currencies also fell sharply against the USD. Markets are now pricing in only 36 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, compared to almost 50 basis points - which would be the equivalent of two 25 basis point rate cuts - before the labor market data.

► The EUR came under further pressure today following the European elections. French President Emmanuel Macron called for new national elections following his crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections. Other leading politicians or parties have also lost considerable influence in the European Parliament. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also suffered humiliating losses. The European Parliament moved further to the right following the far-right's gains in the European Parliament elections.

► While the EUR will remain under pressure due to ongoing fears that the Fed will now adopt a more cautious (wait-and-see) stance, the losses following the European Parliament are likely to be short-lived. We see the AUD higher against all currencies as risk sentiment has stabilized. We expect a rebound in the EUR/AUD and anticipate rising support below 1.63000 and find an entry point near 1.62900. The AUD will suffer more from a strong USD than the EUR.

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-

💸📉📉📉❌

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10 Jun 2024 11:08

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19055.80 🔄
TP ✅ @: 18963.60 🔄

We extend the TP of our Nasdaq slightly and tighten our SL by almost 100 points. Our SHORT from Friday is back in profit. Asia-Pacific equities fell slightly at the beginning of the week. Losses in Europe are slightly larger following the European elections which show that many political leaders/leading parties in Europe have lost much of their support. Wall Street is also 0.2-0.3% lower in pre-market trading.


———-

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07 Jun 2024 17:49

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 196.17 (or keep it 195.98)

Apple was a bit volatile but is seeing a good sentiment environment. We can widen our TP slightly or close here (soon in profit at 195.98).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

07 Jun 2024 17:07

My grandmother has just passed away peacefully. She was born in 1922 and spent her young adult life in a Germany/Europe at war and her 20s in the post-war period - she experienced a lot, had a long life and I am very grateful for all that she was to me. I will see how I can visit her now. A few weeks ago we celebrated her birthday with the family. I will miss her very much 💔

Please monitor your positions - I may not be able to re(act) promptly now

My grandmother will always be a role model for me. She always found a way, even in the most difficult and adverse circumstances. Her husband (my grandfather, whom I never met) died of leukemia at a very young age. After the war she was absolutely destitute, all her possessions were lost under Russian occupation. She lived as a widow for almost 50 years, looking after her two teenage sons with her unique elegance and strength - the youngest was just 14 when his father died - without ever complaining. She outlived all her siblings, despite being plagued by illness at many stages of her life and fighting back incredibly at times - she survived total kidney failure and her kidneys then miraculously started working again. Let it always be a lesson to me to look forward. There is always a way. You were free of hate and bitterness, you didn't hold grudges, you always forgave, you were simply full of love - for everyone. Thank you for everything you have done for us/me - thank you Oma

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

12 Jun 2024 10:43

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Wednesday, June 12

❗️ Asia mixed; European stocks edge higher ahead of US Inflation & Fed decision

► European stocks are trading higher at the start of Wednesday, potentially ending a three-day losing streak as the Stoxx 600 index is up by 0.5%, led by banking stocks. This comes amid political upheaval in France and anticipation of US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Germany's inflation rate rose to 2.4% in May from 2.2% in April, meeting consensus. UK GDP dropped to 0.6% year-over-year in April, in line with expectations, while the goods trade balance worsened. Volatility in European assets seems to be subsiding after the French far-right's gains in the European Parliament elections over the weekend. Investors are preparing for potential market disruptions depending on the Fed's upcoming announcements.

► US stock futures are little changed following the S&P 500 closing at a record high. The USD remained strong after four days of gains, reflecting market speculation on Fed actions. Investors are closely watching the upcoming US inflation report (12:30 UTC+0) and the Fed's rate decision (18:00 UTC+0), which could set the market mood for the coming weeks. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold borrowing costs at a two-decade high, with uncertainty surrounding the quarterly rate projections. US Treasuries also steadied post a solid $39 billion bond sale, reflecting strong demand for US debt.

► In Asia, markets had mixed reactions. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark fell over 1%, driven by declines in auto shares ahead of Europe’s tariff decision. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.66% following hotter-than-expected producer inflation data, which rose by 2.4% year-over-year in May. In China, consumer inflation held steady while producer price deflation eased slightly, suggesting ongoing weak demand.

► Oil prices extended gains as industry data indicated shrinking US crude stockpiles ahead of the International Energy Agency’s market outlook report. WTI Crude oil is trading at around $78.6/barrel. Gold prices dropped slightly to $2,313/oz, largely affected by expectations of US CPI data and Fed’s rate decisions, as well as a still strong USD despite falling US Treasury yields.

Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇨🇳 Inflation Rate - 01:30 (released)
🔸 🇨🇳 PPI - 01:30 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Inflation Rate / CPI - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 GDP - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Industrial Production - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Balance of Trade - 06:00 (released)
♦️ 🇺🇸 Inflation Rate / CPI - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 14:30
♦️ 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision - 18:00

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

🌙 Broadcom (AVGO) 🇺🇸

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

11 Jun 2024 22:23

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 30.04 - 04.06 (26 trading days)

121 / 146 = 82.9% Success Rate

(April 29 - 4/5 = 80% SR dropped out)

✅ 5.6 - CAD/JPY - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 114.061)
✅ 5.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2337.43)
✅ 5.6 - BHP - LONG ↗️ (TP - 58.89)
✅ 5.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 195.79)
✅ 5.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 38777.90)
❌ 5.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19087.60)
✅ 5.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 196.17)

6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate

✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2366.37)
✅ 6.6 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (CLSD - 18680.75| or 18675 - 18690)
✅ 6.6 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.08819)
✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2376.33)
✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2378.29)
✅ 6.6 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (CLSD 18502.10| or 18495 - 18505)

6/6 = 100% Success Rate 🏆

🟡*) 7.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2335.90|or CLSD 2334 - 2337)
✅ 7.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18980.6)
✅ 7.6 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2312.56)
✅ 7.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP 18984.20 / or TP 18981.10)
✅ 7.6 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 200.27|CLSD 200.50-.90, or open)

*break-even (only shared in VIP / taken out of statistic)

4/4 = 100% Success Rate 🏆

No update of positions from June 5 - June 7, all positions closed - 16 out of 17 trades won: Success rate = 94.1% 👏. Our MCD position from June 4 now has a tight SL and a TP.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

11 Jun 2024 21:53

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
SL 🔑 @: 18456.30
TP ✅ @: 18357.60

McDonald's (MCD) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 252.97
TP ✅ @: 258.97

ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 111.29
TP ✅ @: 112.39

We update our stock / index positions. Our Nasdaq 100 hit our tight SL - due to strong gains of Apple today (which we already expected yesterday and traded with great success). But it was not only Apple's strong performance, we also saw a rebound of big tech stocks, Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom and Alphabet. We stay out of the Nasdaq although I expect some headwinds ahead of US CPI data tomorrow. We are SHORT in the DAX (currently ~ slightly in profit) - we set a not too wide TP.

We also set a SL for our MCD position - which outperformed today as we expected (and one of only 6 positive components in the Dow Jones currently) but generally looks back on a weak performance over the last three days. We set a tight SL and a not too wide TP. XOM is near $112.00 and near our entry price. We set a rather tight TP.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

11 Jun 2024 19:35

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 GBP/USD

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 (VIP ONLY)

► Our GBP/USD SL was triggered. We want to remain LONG in the USD and re-enter at a slightly higher price near 1.27340. We note that yields are stagnating again, having fallen by around 3 basis points in the meantime (for the US 10-Y). The rather weak demand for US 52-W (1-Y) bonds shows that the market is bracing itself for a further hawkish stance by the Fed. Rate cut expectations have already been lowered and swap markets are now assuming that only one rate cut for 2024 is slightly more likely than two.

► We expect markets to become more cautious in the second half of US trading and ahead of tomorrow's US CPI data and the Fed's rate decision.

► We are also increasing our overall SHORT position and selling the (VIP ONLY) recovery attempt ((VIP ONLY) range). (VIP ONLY) mostly down, but c(VIP ONLY) higher on speculation of a better (VIP ONLY). (VIP ONLY) strong outperformance helps the (VIP ONLY) and our entry price.

► Political instability weighs on (VIP ONLY). Chinese shares also closed significantly lower today. (VIP ONLY) remains China-sensitive. We also expect more selling (VIP ONLY) in the second half of US trading.

🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel


———-

💵📈
📊📉

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

11 Jun 2024 16:27

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
GBP/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.27253
TP ✅ @: 1.26967

We see the cautious markets we expected - which also benefit safe haven assets (such as the USD; which also benefits from concerns of more hawkish signs from the Fed tomorrow).

We can set a tight SL for our GBP/USD and our TP slightly below 1.27000. We found the near perfect entry with the pair exactly turning around in the 1.27400 - 1.27500 range.


———-

💵📈
💸📉

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

11 Jun 2024 15:50

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🔰
BUY AFTER* NYSE OPENED 🔼 ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸

🔹 Nasdaq (- 0.3%) is lower as most tech stocks are down. We can slightly raise our SL 🔑 @: 19072.20 and our TP ✅ @: 19010.70. We continue to expect headwinds on US equities / growth stocks.

🔹 Apple (+0.2%) opens slightly higher but outperforms the tech sector / Nasdaq 100 as the iPhone inventor is generally experiencing some demand from investors who are becoming more cautious but generally want to stay LONG in a growth / big tech stock. Morgan Stanley maintains its "OVERWEIGHT" rating after the company's Worldwide Developers Conference. D.A. Davidson even upgrades Apple from "NEUTRAL" to "BUY". Our position is in profit. We bought yesterday near/at the session lows and can set a TP ✅ @:197.70 (<- update). We expect gains for Apple.

🔹 McDonald's (0.0%) opens flat and should benefit from greater caution in the markets.

► We have seen a strong performance in energy prices over the last few days, however the energy sector remains unloved as most signs of continued growth in the US economy favor the growth sector. OPEC's decision to extend production cuts until the end of 2025 is good news for US oil and gas giants as it supports oil prices. Recent solid US economic data, including robust job creation and wage growth, is good for the energy sector. Nevertheless, we see Exxon and Chevron opening (significantly) weaker today. We buy Exxon below $112.00* (<- update as XOM openened much lower than expected) and expect a rebound.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 500 - 530 (50,000% - 53,000%) trading ExxonMobil (XOM).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel

——-

Apple is sharply higher (hit already my TP at 195.99) - you can close much better now.

🔤🔤🔤📈1️⃣1️⃣3️⃣

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

11 Jun 2024 14:37

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 (VIP ONLY)/USD

► We expect increasingly cautious trading ahead of Wednesday, when important inflation data will be released, especially US CPI data (but also Chinese CPI data, German inflation data and Japanese PPI) and the Fed's next interest rate decision (monetary policy outlook update including dot plot).

► We also see concerns about political instability in Europe - which is (VIP ONLY) at the moment due to a (probably temporary) (VIP ONLY). The European elections have resulted in the European Parliament moving more to the right. French President Emmanuel Macron responded to the humiliation of the far right by calling early parliamentary elections. A move that makes little sense (politically for Macron) as it comes from a position of great weakness.

► General uncertainty, more caution and worsening risk sentiment will support the USD. The USD will also be supported by better-than-expected US economic data, including last Friday's hiring data. Expectations of a rate cut by the Fed have been reduced.

► (VIP ONLY) figures from (VIP ONLY) higher than expected. Disinflation (VIP ONLY). Tomorrow's (VIP ONLY) signs of an (VIP ONLY). We find an entry in (VIP ONLY)/USD at this week's highs at (VIP ONLY) and expect the pair to test (VIP ONLY) again soon.

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

💪💵

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

11 Jun 2024 10:58

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Tuesday, June 11

❗️ European markets & euro stabilize after volatile Monday post European elections; Investors attention shifts to FED

► After a turbulent day in which increased political risks affected European assets and the euro, calm returned to the European markets. The EUR tries to recover and steadied after hitting a one-month low. The Stoxx 600 is flat while French bonds stabilized following Monday's spike in 10-year yields. Société Générale continued to see losses amid reports of challenges in selling its securities services unit. Additionally, the UK's unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in April from 4.3% in March, slightly above consensus estimates. Investors are now turning their attention to the US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected on Wednesday.

► Wall Street's major indexes ended slightly higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing at a new record closing. US stock futures remained mostly unchanged as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and the latest US consumer price data. The FED is widely expected to keep borrowing costs on hold, but there’s less certainty on officials’ rate projections. In corporate news, Nvidia began trading post a 10-for-one stock split. Apple's shares sank after unveiling AI features with didn't impressive investors, with suppliers also dropping. However, Apple's focus on data protection when implementing further AI functions is the right way to go, according to our chief analyst Robert Lindner. Elon Musk nevertheless mentioned that he would ban Apple devices from his companies if AI software is integrated at operating system level.

► Asian markets experienced mixed performance with Chinese shares leading the declines due to concerns over the property sector and uncertain economic growth. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by close to 0.76%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by over 1%. Conversely, Japan's Nikkei rose by 0.2%, bolstered by a rise in machine tool orders. Investors are also gearing up for a Bank of Japan policy decision on Friday, with some economists predicting the central bank will discuss cutting bond purchases and potentially raising rates next month.

► In the commodities market, oil prices maintained their largest gain since March ahead of an OPEC report that will provide insights into the market outlook. WTI Crude oil prices dropped slightly to around $77.5/barrel. Gold prices retreated to $2,305/oz after gains yesterday, as traders await clues from the Federal Reserve meeting regarding potential monetary easing.

Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇨🇦 PPI - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
🔸 🇯🇵 PPI - 23:50

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

🌙 Oracle (ORCL) 🇺🇸
☀️ Autodesk (ADSK) 🇺🇸 (released)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

10 Jun 2024 23:19

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 29.04 - 03.06 (26 trading days)

119 / 143 = 83.2% Success Rate

(April 26 - 7/7 = 100% 🏆 SR dropped out)

❌ 4.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2321.37|or CLSD in profit)
✅ 4.6 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 7956.70)
✅ 4.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 194.33)
✅ 4.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2324.87)
✅ 4.6 - USD/CHF - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.89017)
✅ 4.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (CLSD - 169.13)
✴️ 4.6 - MCD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 4.6 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1.08823 )

6/8 - (1 open position)

✅ 5.6 - CAD/JPY - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 114.061)
✅ 5.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2337.43)
✅ 5.6 - BHP - LONG ↗️ (TP - 58.89)
✅ 5.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 195.79)
✅ 5.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 38777.90)
❌ 5.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19087.60)
✅ 5.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 196.17)

6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate

✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2366.37)
✅ 6.6 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (CLSD - 18680.75| or 18675 - 18690)
✅ 6.6 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.08819)
✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2376.33)
✅ 6.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2378.29)
✅ 6.6 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (CLSD 18502.10| or 18495 - 18505)

6/6 = 100% Success Rate 🏆

Sorry for the delay - nothing new here. Recent better than expected US economic data favored growth stocks - the Nasdaq 100 is still near the ATH (0.23% away from it), but we'll likely see a more cautious market tomorrow and Wednesday ahead of the Fed's rate decision (+dot plot update).

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

10 Jun 2024 20:22

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► We have slightly raised our TP for the Nasdaq 100, which was good as the Nasdaq actually rose by 0.35% today and is currently less than 0.2% away from its all-time high (reached on Friday). We now see the Nasdaq near the daily highs and short here (~19100).

► It's back to big tech, including AI chip stocks Nvidia (+1.7%; after stock split) and Broadcom (+2.4%), helping the Nasdaq trade in positive territory. Meta (+1.4%) and other chip stocks (with the exception of AMD) are also up significantly.

► We expect some profit taking in the last hours of trading today.

► We see yields picking up again and rising further (currently +5 basis points for the US 10-Y) and that the USD remains in demand, which should put pressure on growth stocks. Better-than-expected US economic data (PMI, NFP on Friday) have raised expectations of a growing US economy again and are currently helping growth stocks - a shaky tailwind.

► We are likely to see more cautious trading ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday, where the dot plot in particular could show that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. Recent data has again been Fed-unfriendly - the Fed wants to see more signs of easing in labor markets and cooling inflation first, which can probably only be achieved if the US economy cools down. Economic data remains too mixed for the Fed to cut rates in this environment. This uncertainty will create headwinds in the coming months.

► We are also seeing headwinds from Europe, where the European elections show that most people are dissatisfied with the leadership within the nation states but also by the EU Parliament.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———-

🇺🇸🔤🔤🔤📉
1️⃣9️⃣1️⃣0️⃣0️⃣

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

10 Jun 2024 13:23

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 26.04 - 31.05 (26 trading days)

121 / 144 = 84% (🏆) Success Rate

(April 25 - 7/8 = 87.5% SR dropped out)

✅ 3.6- US30- LONG ↗️ (TP - 38722.30)
✅ 3.6- AMZN- LONG ↗️ (TP - 177.37)
❌ 3.6- C- LONG ↗️ (SL - 61.24 )
✅ 3.6- USOIL- LONG ↗️ (TP - 73.987; break-even)
✅ 3.6- NAS100- LONG ↗️ (TP - 18597.3)
✅ 3.6- AMD- LONG ↗️ (SL -162.69)

5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate

❌ 4.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2321.37|or CLSD in profit)
✅ 4.6 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 7956.70)
✅ 4.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 194.33)
✅ 4.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2324.87)
✅ 4.6 - USD/CHF - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.89017)
✅ 4.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (CLSD - 169.13)
✴️ 4.6 - MCD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 4.6 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1.08823 )

6/8 - (1 open position)

✅ 5.6 - CAD/JPY - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 114.061)
✅ 5.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2337.43)
✅ 5.6 - BHP - LONG ↗️ (TP - 58.89)
✅ 5.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 195.79)
✅ 5.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 38777.90)
❌ 5.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19087.60)
✅ 5.6 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 196.17) 🔄

6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate

Quick update here - as I wasn't able to post it on Friday because my grandmother died and I was with my parents, among other things, and also wanted to "say goodbye" to my grandmother. I'm sorry I haven't been able to reply to the hundreds of messages from you yet. Thank you very much - that means a lot to me ❤️

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

10 Jun 2024 11:32

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Monday, June 10

❗️ Euro & European stocks slide after EU elections; Stocks already hit by concerns that Fed will hold rates higher after strong hiring data

► European markets faced turbulence today as the EUR fell by as much as 0.5%, its lowest in a month following French President Emmanuel Macron's call for a snap vote after losing the European Parliament elections. The Stoxx 600 also dropped close to 0.6%. Gains for far-right parties in the EU vote prompted Macron’s move to counter the rise of Marine Le Pen. Meanwhile, Germany’s GDP expanded 0.2% in Q1, slightly exceeding expectations, and the country's jobless rate held steady at 5.9%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats suffered a record defeat, which further exacerbated the markets' unease.

► US markets are cautious as traders await the Federal Reserve's policy decision and May’s inflation data on Wednesday. US equity futures declined slightly, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declining by ~0.2%. A strong jobs report was reported last Friday showing nonfarm payrolls up by 272,000 while the unemployment rate was rising to 4%, creating a mixed economic picture. The higher-than-expected payroll increase indicates that employers are hiring at a robust pace, which is a positive sign for the economy, however the increase in the unemployment rate suggests that the labor market is more complex. This rise could be due to more individuals re-entering the workforce in search of jobs, or it could reflect some job losses. This combination of factors will likely be carefully considered by policymakers and investors. Investors are also looking forward to Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (from June 10 -14) for new software announcements.

► Asian markets were little changed in thin holiday trading, with Japan’s Topix rising by 0.4%, led by insurance firms on expectations of higher fixed-income yields. The MSCI’s Asia-Pacific stock closed slightly lower. Japan's GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 was less severe than anticipated, boosting investor sentiment. The country’s current account surplus exceeded forecasts, contributing to the Nikkei 225's 0.92% gain. Markets in China, Hong Kong, and Australia were closed for holidays. Investors are now focusing on upcoming policy decisions from the Bank of Japan (due on June 14) and the potential economic impacts from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new cabinet in India.

► Oil prices edged higher after a recent weekly drop, as the market continues to digest OPEC+’s decision to restore supply amidst a backdrop of geopolitical developments in the Middle East. WTI Crude oil is trading close to $76/barrel. Gold recovered after dropping significantly on Friday, being affected by the hotter than expected NFP data. Gold is currently trading at around $2,295/oz. The prospect of the Fed’s interest rate decision and upcoming industry reports will likely influence further movements in these commodities.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

No significant economic events today

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

No significant earnings reports

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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07 Jun 2024 20:42

⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19143.60 🔄
TP ✅ @: 18981.10 🔄

The Nasdaq is slightly underperforming the other Wall Street indices as growth / tech stocks are more sensitive to yields / rate expectations which rose today after hotter than expected hiring and wage growth. The Nasdaq however still briefly reached a new ATH after overall data near Goldilocks (signs of slowing inflation, resilient US economy)

Stocks continue to benefit from this weeks strong performance including first G7 central bank rate cuts (BoC / ECB).

I expect more profit taking in the final 90 minutes of regular US trading.

PS: I am sitting in an airplane and fly to Hamburg soon. I work with a tight TP here as I have limited access. You can also work with a wider TP / or adjust accordingly

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

07 Jun 2024 17:36

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 200.27

//

You can work with wider TP 201.87.

I will now reduce the positions (for me). JPM closed in my TP. TP at daily high. You can stay in and work with a wide TP. The rotation in value continues for now.

(sorry Signal was only in VIP - you can still trade JPMorgan but search for a better entry ~199.50 - 199.80 (or skip it))

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

07 Jun 2024 16:00

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2312.56 🔄
TP ✅ @: 2302.57 🔄

Very sharp headwinds on gold post hot NFP data. The hot/strong NFP data shows that the US economy remains resilient - but the data is very Fed un-friendly - especially after recent softening labor market data increased expectations for Fed rate cuts significantly.

However, gold is now near 3% down for today. A rebound may happen (which gives us also a better entry for going SHORT again). We see sharply higher yields.