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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, July 1
❗️ Global equities point to positive start to Q3, while Le Pen took lead in French election but fell short of expectations
► European stock-index futures recover some of the recent sharp losses with Stoxx 600 up by 0.5%, amid speculation that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will struggle to secure an outright majority in the French elections. This helped eased investor concerns over a potential radical policy shift in Europe’s second-largest economy even as the far-right National Rally party and its allies won 33.1% of the vote, the left-wing NFP alliance was second with 28% and Macron’s coalition only securing 20%. Futures on French government bonds edged higher, while CAC 40 Index futures rose after the first round of voting showed Le Pen’s National Rally leading President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, though not as strongly as some polls predicted. The relief over the election outcome was tempered by France's economic data, indicating a continued period of political negotiation before the second round of voting on July 7. Markets await the release of German inflation data later today.
► U.S. stock futures are slightly up in pre-market trading amid mixed corporate news. Boeing agreed to buy back Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, while the US Justice Department is expected to charge Boeing with criminal fraud. Economic data indicated a cooling US economy without significant consumer impact, as consumer sentiment declined less than expected. Treasury 10-year notes remained stable. Analysts suggest the USD could serve as a safe-haven currency amidst political uncertainties, while the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions continue to be a focal point for investors.
► Asian shares advanced, led by gains in South Korea and Japan, with Japan’s Topix seeing an increase. Japan’s manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 50.0 for June, indicating stable but modest growth. Business confidence improved, suggesting potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, China’s 10-year bond yield fell to a record low amid economic pessimism. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI hit a three-year high, but official data indicated contraction in manufacturing activity for the second consecutive month, highlighting mixed economic signals from China.
► Oil prices edged higher to $82/barrel, as traders weighed China’s economic outlook and geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East. Gold continues to show resilience at around $2,325/oz, despite higher yields.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇯🇵 Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇰🇷 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇨🇳 Caixin Manufacturing PMI - 01:45 (released)
🔸 🇪🇸 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:15 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:45 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:50 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:55 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Inflation Rate / CPI - 12:00
🔸 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - 13:45
🔸 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI - 14:00
🔸 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speech - 19:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 21.05 - 21.06 (26 trading days)
113 / 149 = 75.8% Success Rate
(May 20 - 2/4 = 50% SR dropped out)
✅ 24.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19729.70)
✅ 24.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 210.67)
❌ 24.6 - USD/JPY - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 161.026) 🔄
✅ 24.6 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8284.90)
✅ 24.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 210.79)
✴️ 24.6 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 159.37 🔄
✅ 24.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19677.30|re-entry)
5/7 - (1 open position)
✅ 25.6 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.66499)
❌ 25.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39028.9)
✅ 25.6 - CAD/CHF - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.65513)
❌ 25.6 - QCOM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 199.89)
2/4 = 50% Success Rate
❌ 26.6 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18068.9)
✅ 26.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19681.10)
❌ 26.6 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 196.11| or clsd 196.50-197)
✅ 26.6 - UNH - LONG ↗️ (SL - 484.97)
✅ 26.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 213.52)
✅ 26.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2300.69)
✅ 26.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP- 2300.97 | or CLSD ~2301)
✴️ 26.6 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 18281.60 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 18163.60 🔄
✅ 26.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 214.83 |or TP 214.89; clsd 215+)
✅ 26.6 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 196.11|or clsd 196.50-197)
7/10 - (incl. TSLA re-entry; 1 open position)
Our USD/JPY hit our SL in overnight trading. The USD was very resilient today, especially given the very Fed-friendly data from the last two sessions, including today's near-perfect PCE data (ideal data for the Fed). We saw very mixed moves in equities, including the S&P 500 hitting a new ATH after the US PCE data, but also recurring profit taking in bonds, among others, which slipped in the second half of trading (pushing yields higher), and concerns over the US presidential election (now even more likely to go in favor of Trump), the upcoming French election on Sunday, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. We have also seen the end of the week/month/quarter, which in itself can lead to some profit taking.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
SL 🔑 @: 18281.60
TP ✅ @: 18163.60
CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷
SL 🔑 @: 7495.10
TP ✅ @: 7420.60 (optional)
Slight profit taking is to be expected at the end of the week/month (even the quarter). It was another strong quarter for equities - but especially in New York, where Wall Street rallied strongly again (led by big gains in tech).
We expect further profit-taking towards the end of after-hours trading in Europe and ahead of the French elections (on Sunday).
We tighten the SL for the DAX - which was already deep in profit yesterday but benefited from positive momentum in New York (but also from a positive quarterly close in Asia today). We give the CAC plenty of room to the downside (you can also work with an open or wider TP here).
———
🇫🇷🗳😨
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💻 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷
► The European markets benefited today from a solid performance by Asian equities and in particular from the recovery on Wall Street and new all-time highs (S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100). There was profit-taking in New York and yields also rose despite Fed-friendly data.
► Everything points to a disastrous result for French President Emmanuel Macron (and his party, the liberal / centrist Renaissance party). Depending on the result, Macron could be left in a tense "cohabitation" with a prime minister from an opposing party or with a chamber unable to form a stable majority to govern the EU's second largest economy for at least a year.
► Current polls suggest that voters will elect Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) with over 35% in the first round on Sunday, while a left-wing alliance will fall behind with up to 29% and Macron's centrists with around 20%. The RN has only grown stronger in last week's polls.
► Even if much is already priced in - the markets are likely to be confronted with the near worst-case scenario on Sunday or actually Monday, leading to major uncertainties about Macron's ability to lead the country and push through his course of fiscal consolidation and the prospects for further economic reforms.
► We remain SHORT on the DAX, but tighten the SL 🔑 @: 18302.60 slightly and sell the CAC here 7495 - 7500*. We set a tight TP for the Nasdaq 100 now TP ✅ @: 19878.90.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 12 - 14 (1,200% - 1,400%) trading the CAC 40 (FRA_40).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
🔤🔤🔤4️⃣0️⃣
7️⃣4️⃣9️⃣7️⃣📉
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
💻 Vantage (🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍) <- NEW
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
💻 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 20025 - 20040
or
SL 🔑 @: 20007.30
TP ✅ @: 20034.90
We see (US) yields turning around a bit with now and being flat for the day again. We secure profits now / close or set a tight TP / SL.
Apple (AAPL) 🇺🇸
triggered TP ✅ @: 215.79
BHP (BHP) 🇦🇺(🇺🇸)
triggered SL 🔑 @: 57.43 (or at 57.44)
Our Apple and BHP positions closed deep in profit. We should have already bought the small dip in Apple back to near $213.50. We will continue observe Apple - our mega cash cow.
Chevron opened well but see slide losses. Energy remains underperforming. We see a slight rotation into growth stocks (from other sectors and even other asset classes - including gold - which sees temporary selling)
We see that yields stabilize near -1 to -2 bps (for the US-10-Y). The impact of US PCE data was mild. We currently see an overall positive risk sentiment with rate cut hopes intact. However, Fed rate cuts would also mean that the US economy is deteriorating - which limits near-term stocks upside from already elevated levels. The Nasdaq 100 reached now 20000 (as we expected).
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
... - just hit SL. We found the perfect entry in gold before PCE data release. We see yields still a bit lower - indicating some additional tailwinds to gold.
We want to re-enter 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 (range $2332.50 - 2334.50) / if you have not set your SL - you can work with a wider SL.
——
⚡️ LIVE TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW / STAY LONG 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.3 - 0.45 (30% - 45%) when trading gold (XAU/USD) - 2/3 trading size
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 7+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
⚡️ LIVE TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY)
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️
► The PCE data is somewhat mixed (slightly higher personal income), but overall shows that disinflation is continuing as expected. This will further increase rate cut expectations and support growth stocks. We see that yields have fallen slightly.
► However, the data is largely in line with expectations (really very close to expectations) - so we see a very mild reaction. We buy (VIP ONLY) and expect further gains in (VIP ONLY)
► Our gold position benefits from the data. We found the perfect entry.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 9+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🔰
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ Upcoming high volatility; 2/3 trading size
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
► We are positioning us LONG in gold ahead of the US PCE data as we expect the data to follow today's Eurozone general inflation data and show further signs of easing price pressures. We have seen May's US economic data with increasing signs of a cooling economy and further signs of a weakening US labor market, which will lower consumer spending and thus depress consumer prices - especially going forward.
► We also saw the latest inflation data in the US where there were signs of continued disinflation, although yesterday's PCE QoQ data came in slightly higher than expected, but the data was from the first quarter before price pressures showed further signs of cooling.
► We are trading gold here primarily in anticipation of sharply cooling yields and a temporarily weaker USD. After yesterday's presidential debate, in which Biden put in a disastrous performance by floundering several times and citing incorrect facts and figures in his very first answer, the USD gained somewhat in after-hours trading (which unfortunately also pushed our USD/JPY into the SL). At times, Biden looked off into the distance while Trump fired one broadside after another (of course also with untrue statements - Trump being Trump). At the end of another rambling answer, Biden froze. What a s* show - pardon my French ...
► We are working with an SL in case the PCE data is better than expected. We find an entry in gold now near $2,332 - we will see increased volatility before the PCE data release and then a strong move. We are trading our gold position slightly smaller.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.3 - 0.45 (30% - 45%) when trading gold (XAU/USD) - 2/3 trading size
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
🔤🔤🔤🔍
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💻 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, June 28
❗️ Global stocks mixed amid upcoming French elections; All eyes on US PCE data
► The broad European Stoxx Europe 600 pared an early gain as France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.5% ahead of the parliamentary election, causing market unease across the region. Economic data showed Germany's unemployment rate increased to 6% in June, and Spain's annual consumer inflation eased to 3.4% in June. France's inflation rate also dropped to 2.1% in June.
► US equity futures are higher, with contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indicating potential gains. Economists expect the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, slowed to an annualized rate of 2.6% last month from 2.8%. That would be the lowest reading since March 2021, though it remains above the Fed’s goal for 2% inflation. The USD index remained near an eight-month high, influenced by outcomes from the US presidential debate. Treasury yields retreated slightly as market expectations for interest rate cuts grew amid mixed economic signals including reduced personal spending and weaker business equipment orders. Consumer and business activity shows signs of cooling which may give the Fed enough reasons to justify cutting rates later this year.
► Asian equities saw mostly gains, with Japan's Topix index poised for its highest close in 34 years. Japanese stocks rose 0.4% on strong industrial production data, while the JPY weakening to around 161 per USD before recovering again. South Korean and Chinese shares also advanced, driven by positive economic data and investor optimism. India's upcoming inclusion in JPMorgan's emerging markets index is set to attract significant foreign investment.
► Oil prices increased slightly to $82/barrel, remaining within a narrow trading range ahead of US economic data that could influence broader market trends. Meanwhile, gold is poised for a third consecutive quarterly gain, trading around $2,330/oz where it sees currently technical resistance.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇬🇧 GDP Growth Rate - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 Inflation Rate / CPI - 06:45 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 PPI - 06:45 (released)
🔸 🇪🇸 Inflation Rate / CPI - 07:00 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 07:55 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate / CPI - 09:00 (released)
🔸 🇨🇦 GDP - 12:30
♦️ 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - 14:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 20.05 - 20.06 (26 trading days)
109 / 146 = 74.7% Success Rate
(May 17 - 2/3 = 66.7% SR dropped out)
✅ 21.6 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.66431)
❌ 21.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2313.63|+re-entry)
✅ 21.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19731.60)
✅ 21.6 - AMD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 159.86)
✅ 21.6 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 181.41 |or SL ~182.02)
✅ 21.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19738.60|or CLSD~19735-50)
✅ 21.6 - AMD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 160.21 |or TP ~160.51)
6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate
✅ 24.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19729.70)
✅ 24.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 210.67)
✴️ 24.6 - USD/JPY - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 161.026 | TP ✅ @: 159.336
✅ 24.6 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8284.90)
✅ 24.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 210.79)
✴️ 24.6 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 159.49
✅ 24.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19677.30|re-entry)
5/7 - (2 open positions)
✅ 25.6 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.66499)
❌ 25.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39028.9)
✅ 25.6 - CAD/CHF - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.65513) 🔄
❌ 25.6 - QCOM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 199.89)
2/4 = 50% Success Rate
Not much news. We closed our CAD/CHF (only) slightly in profit (but ahead of another temporary drop) after oil prices faced some headwinds on worries about a slowing US economy - the pair then rallied as oil also recovered and sentiment brightened a bit - if you're still LONG you can set a tight TP 0.65649 or close lower in profit (now at 0.65630). Oil prices recovered and remain in upward momentum as expected. We are still LONG in Chevron, which closed slightly higher today (+0.24%). We maintain our SL for our USD/JPY position. We saw a weaker USD today, but as expectations of possible BoJ intervention fade, the JPY remains bearish even at these levels. Tomorrow's US PCE report will be very decisive for the USD.
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Apple (AAPL) 🇺🇸
► Apple remains our cash cow over the recent days. We again buy the dip well below our triggered TP (closing price).
► We see Apple now dipping sharply (to currently below $213). We buy the dip. Apple continues to benefit from cautious trading and the general money flow into tech mega caps as well as Apple's own AI push with Apple Intelligence.
► Furthermore, very optimistic Analyst calls (today Bernstein) and institutional buying support Apple as well.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 280 - 300 (28.000% - 30.000%) when trading Apple (APPL).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 100+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
This signal is strongly delayed.
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⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 19731.20
(or triggered TP already ✅ @: 19746.60)
The Nasdaq sees now sharp selling with yields stabilizing showing signs of edging higher. Markets are turning cautious ahead of tomorrow's US PCE data as we expected.
In case you are still SHORT update / set a TP now and secure profits. If your TP is already hit - it's a solid closing otherwise adjust.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2326.77
TP ✅ @: 2333.47
OR
CLOSE ✅ @: 2330 - 2331
We see technical resistance at $2,330, but see gold trying to break through it. We are now setting a tight SL & TP. We see yields stabilizing at -3bps for the day. Gold continues to benefit from recent oversold conditions and geopolitical tensions as well as economic data which the market viewed as more Fed friendly.
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
► We may be a little late to the show, but we are buying the mini dip in gold after the yellow precious metal reached (temporary) resistance at $2,325. We see yields cooling after days of gains. We find an entry point in gold at $2,320.
► The market took the economic data as rather Fed-friendly - especially the increasing signs of a slowdown in durable goods orders, which is an indicator of a slowing economy, and expectations of weakening consumer demand.
► We now see yields 3-4 basis points lower. We see mixed markets, with large tech companies outperforming again (for now) - also supported by lower yields and a slightly softer USD.
► Gold has further upside potential after the recent slide.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
🥇📉2️⃣3️⃣2️⃣0️⃣📈
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
💻 Vantage (🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍) <- NEW
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💻 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
✅ 27.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19746.6 | or clsd ~19750-60)
✅ 27.6 - BHP - LONG ↗️ (SL - 57.43| or SL 57.44) 🔄
✅ 27.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2330.33| or clsd~2327-30)
✅ 27.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 215.79) 🔄
✅ 27.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2334.97 | or TP 2330.18) 🔄
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Erfolgsrate
TODAY :
✅ 28.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2334.24)
✅ 28.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 20007.30|or clsd @ 20025-40)
✴️ 28.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2318.87 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 2339.37 🔄
✴️ 28.6 - NKE - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 74.43 | TP ✅ @: 78.90
✴️ 28.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 19878.90
✴️ 28.6 - FRA_40- SHORT ↘️ (open - near break-even)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 7502.60 | TP ✅ @: 7420.60 (optional)
✴️ 28.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
2/7 - (5 open positions)
We traded yesterday's chaotic session very well and closed the three open positions (BHP, AAPL, gold) today with a big profit. Today was another complicated session. The PCE data came in as expected and helped us close our gold and Nasdaq trade (live) in profit. Then worries returned about high valuations, a potentially too strong Q2, Biden's apparent inability to lead the US for another four years, the upcoming elections in France, signs of a slowdown in the US economy and geopolitical concerns.
Gold proved to be very resilient as yields rose sharply and even ended at almost +10 basis points (US-10-Y). We can set a tight SL / wide TP due to the significantly higher US yields. We saw cautious markets at the end of a turbulent quarter (very positive for US equities). We expect rate cut expectations to come back into focus next week given the very Fed friendly data. Monday's market will be heavily influenced by the French elections on Sunday, which will likely mean that France will have shaky political leadership for the next almost two years (ahead of the French presidential elections in 2027).
⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷
SL 🔑 @: 7502.60
TP ✅ @: 7420.60 (optional)
Nike (NKE) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 74.43
TP ✅ @: 78.90
We give our CAC position slightly more room and widen our SL (now off-profit). We see support for Nike at $75.00 after disastrous losses for the world's largest athletic apparel maker. We set a tight SL and a wide TP.
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
KAUFEN 🔼 Apple (AAPL) 🇺🇸
► We some profit taking in New York after S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time highs. A sell-off in bonds caused yields to rise which also reduced initial losses of the USD with the USD index remaining near 106 or near 2-months highs.
► We also see Apple in negative territory and scoop once again the tech behemoth at a similar entry price as yesterday near $213.25 - $213.50.
► Apple continues to benefit from generally cautious trading, it's push into AI and in particular with investment banks being very bullish on the iPhone inventor.
► We also expect that rate cut expectations can rise early next week when the market focuses more on this week's overall fed-friendly data including today's US PCE print which showed that price pressures in the US continues to abate opening the possibility for Fed rate cuts later this year.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 280 - 300 (28.000% - 30.000%) when trading Apple (APPL).
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BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► We see that the Nasdaq 100 is now 200 points below today's highs (ATH) (at 19850 - 19870) and the S&P 500 is also back at 5500 - where it could find some support.
► We are seeing profit taking after the strong gains, which are being reinforced by slightly rising yields and the return of the USD to recent highs.
► However, today's US economic data was very positive for the Fed's rate cut expectations. The signs of cooling inflation in the US remain intact. Moreover, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator shows not only that inflation continues to move towards the Fed's inflation target, but also that the US economy remains resilient. Consumer spending and income remain positive and have not experienced the expected decline.
► Consumer sentiment data ( University of Michigan data) came in much better than expected and the Michigan 1-year inflation expectation of 3.3% falls to 3%, which also shows that consumers are seeing a light at the end of the inflation tunnel.
► We are buying the current dip. We closed our previous Nasdaq 100 position excellently.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19998.90
TP ✅ @: 20077.90
20000 💥
We secure big profits. Beautiful trade.
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BUY AFTER NYSE OPENED 🔼 Nike (NKE) 🇺🇸
⚠️ Volatile; 2/3 trading size
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying US inflation slowed in May, suggesting lower interest rates over the course of the year. The core personal consumption expenditure price index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% month-on-month (on an unrounded basis the rise was just 0.08%) - the lowest since November 2020. The reaction in the markets is still muted as investors also digested yesterday's US presidential debate, which increased expectations that Trump will become the next (or again) US president.
🔹 The Nasdaq (+0.2%) is up slightly and could test the key 20000 mark. After the PCE data, we see slight selling, although the PCE data does not change the generally cautious trading and concerns about overvaluation. We see signs of upside in the key chip sector, where Nvidia is trading 0.5% higher pre-market.
🔹 Apple (+0.8%) opens higher again, taking our LONG position deep into profit territory again at the NYSE open. Other analysts join our analysis and rate Apple positively or raise their price targets. Oppenheimer again rates Apple as "outperform" and raises the price target significantly to $250 (from $200). Citi advises to "BUY" Apple and puts Apple in 2nd place among the top picks. We set a TP near yesterday's highs ✅ @: 215.79 / We set an in-profit SL 🔑 @: 213.98
🔹 BHP (+1.7%) is one of the top performers in New York (ADR share) and opens deep in profit for us. We set a tight TP ✅ @: 57.84 and SL and secure large profits with a tight SL 🔑 @: 57.44.
🔹 Chevron (+1%) opens significantly higher at $158. We set our TP ✅ @:159.37. Chevron benefits from further rising oil prices and increasing hopes of a rate cut by the Fed.
► We are very well positioned in individual stocks. In addition, we are positioned quite deep and LONG in growth with our Nasdaq 100 - so we don't want to overtrade here. We see that yields are falling - which points to increased expectations of interest rate cuts - from which yield-sensitive (growth) equities in particular are benefiting.
► We buy a position in Nike - which opens around 17-18% (!) lower and faces additional headwinds from Morgan Stanley's downgrade of Nike from "Overweight" to "Equal Weight". Nike already looks back on a poor performance and is down 17% over 12 months, or 13% YTD. Nike will be volatile, but I see limited further downside potential and believe bargain hunters and intermediate/long term investors see Nike at an attractive opening price in the $77.50 - 78.00 range. We are buying Nike with a smaller position than usual and are looking to enter below $78.00. The prospect of a weaker USD in the coming months (with rising expectations of a Fed rate cut) supports Nike.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 650 - 700 (65,000% - 70,000%) trading Nike (NKE) - 2/3 trading size
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We see a very mild reaction on the markets, especially in view of the great importance of these figures. The USE PCE data was very close to analysts' expectations 📸. We even see slight signs of disappointment that disinflation was not faster given yesterday's US economic data pointing to a slowdown in the US economy.
We have found the perfect entry point into gold but now see a mixed reaction as the USD / yields have barely moved. We set an in-profit SL for our gold position SL 🔑 @: 2334.24
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🚨 US PCE data in 2 minutes
LIVE TRADING SESSION (ONLY IN VIP CHANNEL)
Please update SL on your DAX position SL 🔑 @: 18321.10
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 2336.00 - 2337.00
OR
SL 🔑 @: 2334.97
TP ✅ @: 2337.49
If you are still LONG in gold - close now/soon or work with a tight SL & TP. Gold pushed above the technical resistance at $2,330 and is opening up for further gains. US PCE data will define the near-term movements of gold and will be released later today at 12:30 UTC+0.
If your (optional) TP was already triggered - that's also very solid.
❌ 26.6 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18068.9)
✅ 26.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19681.10) 🔄
❌ 26.6 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 196.11| or clsd 196.50-197) 🔄
✅ 26.6 - UNH - LONG ↗️ (SL - 484.97)
✅ 26.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 213.52)
✅ 26.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2300.69)
✅ 26.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP- 2300.97 | or CLSD ~2301)
✴️ 26.6 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅@: 18157.60 🔄
✅ 26.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 214.83 |or TP 214.89; clsd 215+) 🔄
✅ 26.6 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 196.11|or clsd 196.50-197) 🔄
7/10 - (incl. TSLA re-entry; 1 open position)
✅ 27.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19746.6 | or clsd ~19750-60)
✴️ 27.6 - BHP - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even)
✅ 27.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2330.33| or clsd~2327-30)
✴️ 27.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
✴️ 27.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 2330.18 (optional) 🔄
2/5 - (2 open position)
Wall Street continues to move sideways (visually) and remains mixed. We see signs of a slowdown in the US economy - which in reality is not positive, but the increased hopes for interest rate cuts / falling yields - are supporting growth stocks. Tech mega-caps continue to dominate. Our DAX SHORT unfortunately failed to reach the TP overnight and we are now setting a tighter TP (still in profit). European equities are likely to remain under pressure tomorrow ahead of the French elections on Sunday. We may also set a tight TP for our gold position which is likely to be triggered overnight. We see some resistance at/above $2,330 for gold. There will be little movement tomorrow ahead of the US PCE data (12:30 UTC+0). Apple remains a cash cow for us.
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BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY)
► We see demand for (VIP ONLY) rising again as the market sees the latest data as a sign of a slowdown in the US economy. While initial jobless claims were slightly lower than expected, continuing jobless claims are now at their highest level since the end of 2021 - a sign of fewer new hires and a longer average duration of unemployment. Declining orders and shipments of durable goods and a drop in home purchases are also signs of an economic slowdown. A cooling economy will also make it difficult for stocks to continue to rise significantly - even if they continue to be driven by the earnings of tech mega-caps (which continue to post impressive growth rates).
► While the Fed doesn't want to cut rates too soon and risk a renewed acceleration in inflation, it also wants to avoid a sharp slowdown, possibly a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment - so the data is seen as more Fed-friendly (as it makes it easier for the Fed to justify rate cuts).
► While the big elephant in the room remains tomorrow's US PCE data, we now see (VIP ONLY) ...
► We are (VIP ONLY) in the $(VIP ONLY) range.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
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Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 19746.60
PS: My position was closed at the previous TP - I was a bit late to update. However, we are now also seeing some support below 19750. You can close soon (at the previous TP or at 19731.20 - but I would tighten the TP a bit) or earlier - it's also okay to close at 19750 if you are still SHORT.
PS: I closed early at 2330 as we see slight signs of yields edging up
Читать полностью…⚡️ LIGHTNING RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 196.50 - 197.00
or
SL 🔑 @: 198.63
TP ✅ @: 196.11
We want to get out of Tesla and close out of profit (re-entry slightly in profit / break-even). Either close now or work with a tight TP. We should have closed shortly after NYSE opening when Tesla was down more than 1%. I see Tesla fundamentally with lots of headwinds - but Tesla continues to benefit from sentiment driven buying.
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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 BHP (BHP) 🇦🇺(🇺🇸)
We see little reaction to the latest economic data (rather slightly positive) - but the data is not seen as Fed-unfriendly and is mostly in line with expectations. PCE ratios are up slightly, which could be a cause for concern about tomorrow's US PCE data. We see slightly lower yields, suggesting that the market does not see the data as a problem for a possible Fed rate cut, which is still expected in September or early November.
🔹 The Nasdaq (0.0%) is little changed, trading at yesterday's close but higher off the lows in overnight trading. We continue to see solid performance from mega-cap tech stocks. Amazon reached a valuation of $2 trillion for the first time yesterday. Apple's recent positive performance has also helped keep the S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 stable. We see rising resistance above 19800. Micron was able to cut its losses, but still heavy losses (almost -4.5%) will weigh on chip stocks today). We see mixed markets - we therefore set a tight TP ✅ @: 19746.60.
🔹 Apple (+0.5%) again exceeds our expectations and drives our re-entry deep into the profit zone. Bernstein again rates Apple as "Outperform" and raises the price target to $240 (from $195). We are working with a relatively narrow price target (slightly above yesterday's high) to secure nice profits again TP ✅ @: 214.89.
🔹 Chevron (+0.5%) opens higher, benefiting from the oil price near a two-month high. We expect a positive development in the energy sector today. We raise our price target slightly to ✅ @: 159.49. We expect oil prices to rise further today as the USD loses some of its recent gains and geopolitical tensions between Lebanon and Israel increase.
🔹 Tesla (- 0.3%) opens slightly weaker, but has already taken deeper losses during overnight trading. We can tighten our SL slightly SL 🔑 @: 198.63.
► We see mixed markets. We see a buying opportunity in BHP, which opens ~1% lower despite modest gains in commodity prices. The negative Asian session and continued outperformance of mega-cap tech stocks is weighing on the commodity sector. We see slightly lower yields and some headwinds for the USD as durable goods orders (in May) have slowed significantly compared to April. We currently see slightly higher rate cut expectations, which also supports commodity prices. We buy BHP (at close to / slightly above 56.50) and expect a solid performance after a weak opening.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 900 - 1000 (90,000% - 100,000%) trading BHP (BHP).
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