🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⚠️ High Volatility
► We have seen gold rise back to (VIP ONLY) ATH). We (VIP ONLY) profit-taking in equities that we expected and that (VIP ONLY) by surprise. Our Tesla position has just made a mega profit (TP triggered - congratulations!). We are going(VIP ONLY) gold (VIP ONLY) and also (VIP ONLY) range.
► Gold benefits from (VIP ONLY) as stocks falter and now look vulnerable – (VIP ONLY) we see increased (VIP ONLY) gold, also to increase (VIP ONLY) ...
► Gold benefits from the escalation of tensions between Hisbollah and Israel – (VIP ONLY) ...
► We are seeing a stronger USD (as we expected) – now the DXY (VIP ONLY), which also pushes (VIP ONLY) ...
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
position code / 100% transparency - 24092004A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 90+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 240.57
TP ✅ @: 237.16
Beautiful trade. Bank of America is doing Bank of America things (always too late) - we are securing nice profits. I see significantly more short-term downside potential here.
Some things never change: Tesla is our forever cash cow.
——-
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Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP triggered ✅ @: 2605.67
We expect some support near key-level 2600 and thus observe for now - we can find a better price to go SHORT again later today.
Congratulations - what a trade!
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SELL NOW 🔽 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⚠️ High Volatility
► Gold is currently trading at all-time highs (well above $2,600) and there is no doubt that gold will continue to be a good investment in 2024/25, especially if monetary policy is loosened in the coming months. We do not see the peak here in 2024.
► In the short term, however, we see gold as overbought - albeit supported by fundamentals - due to a slight cooling of yields and strong tailwinds from commodity price increases (especially silver, which gained more than 12% in September and thus performed significantly better than gold, among other things). We see gold short-term very overbought. We also see that silver is not in a position to rise much further from current levels (already up 2% today – also very overheated).
► We have the big expiration day today and have seen another strong 3 months since the last Triple Witching on June 21. I see no weaker stock market than three months ago – certainly not with continued robust US economic data and a Fed that has started the easing cycle and is ready to support the US economy.
► Nevertheless, we expect gold to soon encounter temporary (!) resistance and that profit-taking will occur as investors seek to increase their free margin for high volatility as the day progresses. We experienced a dramatic drop in the price of gold on June 21 (you may remember) – while we may not see a similarly strong wave of profit taking, it is very logical that investors increase their free margin by realizing some of their gold profits.
► We understand the volatility and are positioning ourselves SHORT here (at $2,620). We also expect the USD to continue to rise (we see the DXY already at +0.10% - it was already a bit higher today).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
position code / 100% transparency - 24092002A
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——-
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, September 20
❗️ European stocks slip w/ Mercedes-Benz; US markets see volatility ahead of Triple Witching event; BoJ leaves rates unchanged
► The Stoxx 600 dipped over 0.6% while the Mercedes-Benz Group fell 7% after lowering its full-year outlook. The broad European market remained cautious after the 50bp rate cut by the US Fed at the start of the week. Economic optimism was dampened by expectations that the Fed will still cut rates more slowly than the market expects – investors are also pricing in the possible impact of inflation remaining flat or possibly rising again. In the UK, August retail sales beat expectations, rising 1%, slightly brightening consumer sentiment.
► US futures are losing a little more of Thursday's gains after the S&P 500 saw its 39th ATH (in 2024) on Thursday. The Fed's sharp interest rate cut has boosted confidence in a possible soft landing for the economy. US stock futures are down slightly, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Nasdaq currently down 0.15%. Investors are preparing for today's “triple witching event,” when options and futures contracts expire, which tends to cause volatility and often results in profit-taking.
► Asian stocks advanced on Friday, led by a more than 2% rise in Japan's Nikkei 225, which rose to around 37,800, after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. The JPY fluctuated against the USD as inflation in Japan accelerated to 2.8% in August. In China, stocks fell 0.23% as the central bank kept interest rates steady, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.39% on hopes that interest-rate cuts in the U.S. will boost the local economy.
► Oil prices were little changed at around $71/barrel (spot price) after rising significantly yesterday. Prices are being heavily influenced by the escalating situation in the Middle East, where an escalating conflict between Hizbollah and Israel is looming. Meanwhile, gold prices rose well above $2,600/ounce, marking the third consecutive month of gains as investors sought safety amid global market volatility and expectations of further interest rate cuts.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
♦️ 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 03:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇬🇧 Retail Sales - 06:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇨🇦 Retail Sales - 12:30
🔸 🇪🇺 Consumer Confidence - 14:00
🔸 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speech - 15:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 09.08 - 12.09 (26 trading days)
122 / 138 = 88.4% ❗️ Success Rate
(August 8 - 3/4 = 75% SR dropped out)
✅ 13.9 - EUR/GBP - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.84381)
✅ 13.9 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 687.69)
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19492.30)
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19539.40)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 16.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2579.67)
❌ 16.9 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 21.13 + pot. neg. slippage)
✅ 16.9 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 215.97 + pot. neg. slippage)
✅ 16.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2581.13)
3/4 = 75% Success Rate
✅ 17.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2577.77)
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19549.90 me / near break-even)
✅ 17.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.11133)
❌ 17.9 - WMT - LONG ↗️ (SL - 78.23| or SL - 78.69) 🔄
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL -19538.90)
✅ 17.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 41653.40)
✅ 17.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2567.53 for me| clsd @: 2567-69)
6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate
Even though September 12 (2 out of 5) has now been included in the 5-week period, we still have a success rate of above 88% 📸 - which is still breathtaking with almost 140 trades in 5 weeks.
Otherwise, it's "almost funny" that on a day when the S&P 500 not only rose by 1.7% but also reached another all-time high (already the 39th ATH this year), our WMT position closed at the SL. Overall, however, it has been a great week so far, especially considering the many reversals, sideways markets and the overall split market (which has turned positive for now). With the triple witching tomorrow (big expiration day), I see the risk of rapid price jumps and profit-taking again - we thus don't over position us.
“Look at the “analysis” of Fred today. No more words (..) Randomly Dropped (..) Hahaha (..) The sad thing is that there are people who celebrate it or, even worse, lose money because of such a scam (..) now and then a month's salary (..) or even more (..) People on Reddit have lost over $/€25,000 with Fred (..) that's an annual salary (..)”.
(*translated from original language German to English)
Stefan 🇩🇪 (DE - Community) has sent us another screenshot that I would like to share. Also as a warning again. This is the level of the so-called experts in the “trading signal” business. One of the big ones - who probably spends $150,000 per month on advertising — to scam people. “Coin Tosser Analysis”... 🫥 (so a really random 50% decision). Pips in indices 🤯 Pips are used in Forex, that's the fourth digit after the decimal point - for indices, you call it points... So it's like a blind man explaining colors - it would be almost funny if it didn't cause a lot of people to lose money... It's just fraud.
Please warn people about fake social media experts – especially in the trading/investment area. Besides SmartTrader, there are maybe 1-2 reputable trading experts – unfortunately, the rest is all scam. Thanks, Robert (thanks to Stefan also for sharing again).
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Chevron (CVX) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 146.13
TP ✅ @: 147.49
We found a great entry into Chevron with oil & gas giant exactly finding the support we expected in the range we expected 145.00 - 145.50. We now work with a tight SL and give CVX more room to rise.
We can see that oil prices are currently reaching session highs – WTI is at its highest level since September 3. This is also because the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. A worsening conflict between Hizbollah and Israel is imminent. Iran, whose ambassador in Beirut, Mojtaba Amani, has also been injured, is talking about an impending “retaliatory strike”.
———
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 42046.70
TP ✅ @: 42148.90
We work with a tight TP now (~ 200 points in profit) and a tight SL (~100 points in profit)
We made the perfect prediction with the Dow Jones indeed finding support at 41950.
——-
✅ 06.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 09.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 10.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 11.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 11.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 17.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
❌ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 19.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
🔗 (clickable! = the world's ONLY 100% transparent trading channel)
14/15 = 93.33% Success Rate
🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
Stocks rose worldwide – even though the Fed did not give the dovish outlook that investors had hoped for – we now see that the market generally assumes that the Fed is on the side of the market and will continue to support the market with an easing of financial conditions – a market that is already relatively uncracked and robust anyway.
🔹 Walmart (- 0.1 %) opens little changed after rising as much as 0.7 % earlier (in pre-market trading). We tighten the SL slightly 🔑 @: 78.23 and maintain the TP ✅ @: 79.74.
► We now see Wall Street a bit hot – with the Nasdaq 100 near ATH (S&P 500/Dow Jones reached new ATHs) – but also well supported by gains in Asia and Europe and a very healthy overall market breadth, suggesting that short-term profit-taking would meet with recurring “dip” buying and new highs for now.
► Cyclical stocks such as financials, growth stocks and materials stocks are outperforming as the market is confident that the US economy will remain strong and, despite signs of a slowdown, will benefit from lower interest rates in the coming months – which will also be enough to ensure that the US economy does not fall into a recession.
► There are many stocks here that I like – but they are already opening very well. Apple, for example – can probably continue to recover after investors/analysts misunderstood the latest order data for the Apple iPhone – but now they are correcting (supported by investment banks that understand what we realized immediately after Apple's slump).
► We can buy (VIP ONLY), which is trading at (VIP ONLY) pre-market, up about (VIP ONLY)% – and thus close to yesterday's highs. While (VIP ONLY) are lagging behind other (VIP ONLY), especially (VIP ONLY), etc., (VIP ONLY) is attractively valued here after the(VIP ONLY) recent strong underperformance. We buy here (range (VIP ONLY)).
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
position code / 100% transparency - 24091902A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ FREE RAPID TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/USD
► The USD and thus also USD pairs such as the EUR/USD have experienced wild price swings since the Fed's interest rate decision. After the pair's initial surge following the rate cut of 50 basis points, there was a sharp fall to a level well below the level before the rate decision after Fed Chairman Powell played down the significance of the (size of the) rate cut and gave a rather cautious outlook.
► We now see the EUR/USD back near yesterday's highs (range 1.11750 - 1.11800). We are going SHORT HERE and do not see a faster rate cut cycle as previously expected by the swap markets (but of course as previously forecast by the Fed).
► The currency markets were also characterized by the weakness of the JPY, as investors assume that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates tomorrow, although the interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and the Fed has narrowed.
► US economic data remains robust, while the Eurozone continues to struggle. There was no major data today, but new car registrations in the Eurozone plummeted by 18.8% in August (YoY) - another (of many) signs of a weakening consumer / weak demand.
⚠️ The Bank of England left its key interest rate at 5%, which had little impact on this pair, but once again shows that the ECB is the most dovish of the three central banks.
position code / 100% transparency - 24091901A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
💶/💲 📈📉
Perfect entry 🎯🔫
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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19768.60
TP ✅ @: 19552.60 (off-profit)
Investors initially turned bearish after the Fed press conference, but headlines in the global news focusing on the fact that the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points brought traders - even outside the US - back into the equity markets for now! in the hope that the start of the monetary easing phase combined with a still strong US economy indicates that the US can avoid a recession.
However, we see that yields are not giving back yesterday's gains and the USD is also stronger than before the rate decision. Gold has nevertheless risen quickly to $2,580 and has thus also reached our price target. If you are still in, you can now close with a mega profit - TP ✅ @: 2586.49 / CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 2586.00 - 2589.00 - congratulations; gold was the hardest to trade in the last 24 hours - we won it all.
From a fundamentals perspective, we see little additional tailwind for US equities. We are working with a tight SL / TP on our Nasdaq 100 and we are seeing broad gains in pre-market trading. Our WMT position is currently trading at breakeven again. Our TP is (currently off-profit) - which means that we are likely to end our current winning streak of 13 consecutive successful index trades.
———
✅ 06.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 09.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 10.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 11.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 11.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 17.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
13/13
✴️(❌) 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP off profit)
PS: I don't think we'll get near 90% again in the next few months (maybe not even years) - so this is really historic and special for me / maybe for you.
Thank YOU for being a part of this 🤝
I added a world record sticker (I was joking of course) - but it was also partly meant this way: please don't trust people who tell you they win everything / have found the perfect system or strategy - but aren't completely (!) transparent.
DEMAND TRANSPARENCY - ALWAYS. DEMAND IT ‼️
This is possibly the highest short term success rate ever achieved (with more than 100 trades / and no micro profits) - anything above or even close to this I would consider practically impossible.
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► We see a market that is disappointed. While the Fed delivered on the 50 basis points that the swap markets had priced in, Powell was seen as very hawkish. The market was particularly concerned about Powell's statement that no one should assume that “this is the new pace” for future rate cuts and that it will be a long time before rates return to the levels the market has seen over the last decade. The Fed is not “in a rush”, as Powell has said several times.
► Nor did he declare that the mission in the fight against inflation has been accomplished.
► Only 8-9% of analysts expected a rate cut of 50 basis points (we did not expect a rate cut of 50 basis points either). However, the swap markets still ended up being more wrong than right - because in the end was indeed the rate outlook (as I said in the run-up) that was more important and Powell tried to ensure that the outlook was far below what the swap markets expected.
► We are going SHORT into the Nasdaq here with the Nasdaq seeing resistance at 19500. We also see that yields are now up 6-7bp (for the 10-y)
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4.5- 6.5 (450% - 650%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100)
position code / 100% transparency - 24091808A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2544.47
TP ✅ @: 2563.49
We see that yields have risen sharply now and put pressure on gold, leading to massive losses for gold traders around the world who were just waiting for the 50 bps cut to position themselves extremely LONG. Overall, we saw a very hawkish 50 bps rate cut, which is a bigger disappointment to those who were hoping for quick rate cuts than a 25 bps cut with a more dovish outlook would have been.
We are now limiting losses and setting a break-even TP. In the end, we still saw a 50bp rate cut - which lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold (however, yields rose 50bp after the cut - a big surprise to the analysts currently discussing the phenomenon.
Also, we have now seen such a sharp drop (more than $50 from a new ATH) that we could see some dip buying, as well as support at $2,350. However, we are working with a tight SL here and could find a better re-entry.
⏱ Update DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 19737.60
if you are still in:
TP ✅ @: 19703.60
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 19700 - 19720
Very tricky today the Nasdaq - offering plenty of dip buying "traps" to investors. Our SHORT position hit TP. If you are still in - you can close a bit better.
As always, we remain ahead of the markets. We see today - also a sentiment driven market and a market which will be influenced by pure trading activity (especially from institutional traders). This is something that needs to be understood, which unfortunately 99.9% of market participants do not understand.
🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL AFTER* NYSE OPENING 🔽 Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸
🔹 The Nasdaq 100 (- 0.25%) is little changed, but shows signs of widening profit-taking yesterday. There is no important US data coming out today, but we are facing the triple witching event - which will cause increased volatility and swings today (which are not supported by fundamentals). We therefore remain cautious today. We cannot set a TP that is too far: TP ✅ 19737.60. We see the Nasdaq 100 oscillating around the 19800 mark for the time being.
► Tesla was the big winner yesterday, ending the day 7.4% higher. Today, Bank of America recommends to BUY Tesla in advance of the October Robotaxi event - I would not follow this recommendation here and instead expect profit taking, even though Bank of America's recommendation may even lead to further gains for now. The hype is real and Tesla / Elon Musk is great at creating massive buzz. We expect general profit taking in New York as investors want to take their profits home - after Tesla's mega gains yesterday, this makes particular sense today.
► Tesla could experience a significant price correction today before the triple witching and be sold for portfolio rebalancing. There are further plans to rebalance the US stock market indices to curb the massive influence of Big Tech on the main Wall Street futures - which could lead to institutional traders rebalancing today to better reflect the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (for their clients).
► Tesla will open slightly lower (-0.6%) at 242.50* - we expect further profit taking but may see slight gains first (up to 243.50). We will also watch Intel - which we should have SHORTED again yesterday when the chipmaker benefited from broad buying.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~190 - 210 (19.000% - 21.000%) when trading Tesla (TSLA) .
position code / 100% transparency - 24092003A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
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2️⃣4️⃣3️⃣📉
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2616.63
TP ✅ @: 2605.67
Actually impossible to hit the entry here like this (against the market) - we did it.
We move our SL into profit and can find a better entry if the SL is triggered.
We move the SL to 2613.86 when gold touches 2608.60.
Congratulations - a truly magical entry here.
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► The Nasdaq 100 is little changed in pre-market trading after staging a strong rally yesterday and seeing some profit-taking before the market closed. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones reached new record highs yesterday, showing that overall market optimism remains high and hopes are high that the Fed will support the US economy and try not to fall behind the curve, support the labor market accordingly, and avoid a recession. The Fed's increased support and the start of the monetary easing phase come at a time when the US economy is still robust, including a labor market that remains healthy – even if new hires have slowed recently.
► Stocks (VIP ONLY) yesterday, especially (VIP ONLY). We see (VIP ONLY) today, which will (VIP ONLY) “triple witching,” when derivatives contracts on equities, index options and futures expire, as this(VIP ONLY), among other things, (VIP ONLY) large investment banks and institutional traders.
► We are also seeing stocks(VIP ONLY), particularly (VIP ONLY), as signs (VIP ONLY), while(VIP ONLY). We are also seeing (VIP ONLY) ...
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4.5- 6.5 (450% - 650%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100)
position code / 100% transparency - 24092001A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
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✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19430.20)
✅ 18.9 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 21.16)
✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19450.60)
(❌ 18.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL -1.11636 | optional trade))
✅ 18.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2587.97 | or clsd 2587-90)
✅ 18.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️(TP - 2585.16)
✅ 18.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2564.79 | or clsd 2586-89) 🔄
❌ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19768.60) 🔄
6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate (6/8 incl. optional only VIP)
TODAY :
✅ 19.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.11163| or SL 1.11437) 📸
✅ 19.9 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 146.13) 📸
✅ 19.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 42046.70) 📸
✅ 19.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 42139.40) 📸
✴️ 19.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - slightly-in-profit) 📸
4/5 - (1 open position)
PS: Sorry for the delay - I was in a discussion with our Analyst Michael "Meikl" (follow his channel - Michael SmartTrader TRIAL Channel). We traded the last two days exceptional. We made the mistake to trade too much the short-term movements - although everything pointed towards a bigger disappointment following Powell's hawkish 50-bps rate cut. The fact that the interest rate cut was still a 50 basis point cut, and the belief that the Fed is now on the side of the US economy, has led to a very strong Wall Street today.
We found good entries in a very hot market (with our Dow Jones 📸 positions). We made the perfect EUR/USD 📸 trade - it was so on point that I hope it actually triggered the TP for everyone (including the spread; I added the SL - 1.11437 - still well in profit).
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SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/USD
► We made a frighteningly perfect EUR/USD trade today - finding the perfect entry (on the minute) just before the fall and then closing exactly to the cent before the pair recovered - now back to (over) 1.11650 - where we go SHORT again.
► The EUR benefited from hawkish comments from ECB officials, such as Peter Kazimir of Slovakia, who said earlier this week that the ECB "will almost surely need to wait until December" (for the next rate cut). We also heard clearly hawkish comments from the Bank of England. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that rates are “starting to come down”, implying that the UK central bank will not follow the Fed's example – in particular, inflation in the services sector remains high in the UK. However, while markets are very optimistic about further rate cuts by the Fed, I see them being overly cautious about rate cuts by the BoE or the ECB.
► While the interest rate differential (ECB vs. Fed) seems to be narrowing somewhat in the coming months, I do not expect the ECB to slow the rate of inflation significantly from here. Inflation data is already at the ECB's target and there is a risk of deflation. Furthermore, economic data shows continued weakness in the Eurozone. German PPI will be deep in deflationary territory tomorrow.
► We have seen rising yields in the US today, which are providing some support. Also, a triple witching (!) event (large options expiry day) is coming up tomorrow, which will lead to higher volatility and likely support the USD.
► The strong outperformance of the EUR against the USD and almost all other currencies (except the GBP) went too far today.
position code / 100% transparency - 24091905A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 42139.40 (my TP already hit at 42128.70 📸)
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 42125+
Our timing is exceptional. We see a Dow Jones in sideways movement (after strong pre-market gains).
We again found the near perfect entry and set now a tight TP (my position just closed at 42128.70). Very similar to our previous position - even a bit better.
⏱ Update DELAYED by: 4+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed updates / signal in the VIP Channel
——-
Please stay grounded despite the quick/big profits and share with people in need if possible. ❤️
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
► We see a further decline and can re-enter – slightly lower than our previous entry price (now at around ~41900 - 41930). We see some resistance at over 42000. There was also some profit taking in the Nasdaq 100, but it is still up almost 2.5% for the day – still a bit too hot.
► We continue to see the Dow Jones underperform due to losses in the healthcare sector (UnitedHealth -0.9% is the most heavily weighted stock in the Dow Jones).
► We also see losses in consumer staples stocks and also Visa. The credit card companies have benefited from the high interest rates - and have raised to the highest average credit card interest rates ever. ~23% for new contracts and ~21.5% for existing contracts – it is expected that these rate will fall at least a little.
► We continue to see Wall Street well supported and short-term dips are being bought by investors and traders (for now).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) and trade the Dow Jones (US30)
position code / 100% transparency - 24091904A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
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OR: Other contact possibilities 🔗
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
► We will remain in buy-the-dip for the time being. We see broad gains and a strong market breadth. Underperformance of more defensive stocks, such as in healthcare and consumer staples (unfortunately also Walmart – which was unable to benefit from equally solid earnings growth/strong growth in e-commerce revenues), is now weighing on the Dow Jones – we are buying the dip at (near) 41950 (or a decline of 200 points from today's high/all-time high (!)).
► This is some typical profit taking, which we expected anyway, as Wall Street got a bit hot in pre-market trading.
► We generally see the current rotation in technology/growth/cyclicals, but no major weakness in the current buying phase, which was able to strongly overcome yesterday's general disappointment that the Fed, according to Powell, will remain cautious and understand that the fight against inflation cannot yet be considered won.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) and trade the Dow Jones (US30)
position code / 100% transparency - 24091903A
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 13+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
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4️⃣1️⃣9️⃣5️⃣0️⃣📈
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OR: Other contact possibilities 🔗
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
EUR/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.11437
TP ✅ @: 1.11163
Sorry for the slight inactivity – I had a few consulting requests and gave guidance briefly. Many analysts/investment firms are very unsure how to interpret yesterday's Fed decision and how it will affect asset in the near/medium-term – I am always in "high demand" for such matters – especially in the short-term and 6-month time frames.
Congratulations – we found the perfect entry and timing for the EUR/USD (against the market and also the current mini-volatility spike at the time of the BoE rate decision) and are now securing nice profits.
———-
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Thursday, September 19
❗️ Global sentiment turns positive after market initially reacts negatively to hawkish Fed outlook
► After the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points and ahead of two more interest rate decisions by major central banks within the next 14 hours, European equity markets rallied after a negative session. The Stoxx 600 rose by around 1%, supported by hopes that the US economy can avoid sliding into recession and expectations of lower borrowing costs. Investors are now awaiting the Bank of England's interest rate decision (11:00 UTC+0), which is likely to keep rates on hold for the second time in a row. Strong gains in key sectors, particularly in the technology industry and financial stocks, contributed to the positive sentiment in Europe.
► US equity futures rallied, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up 1% (S&P 500 +0.7%), driven by the Fed's unexpectedly large rate cut. This is the first rate cut in more than four years and signals the Fed's commitment to support the US economy to avoid a recession. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that future decisions will be data-driven and this is not the new pace, the central bank forecast further rate cuts of 50 basis points in 2024 (25 basis points twice, for a total of 100 basis points versus ~115 basis points expected). Powell made it clear that this strong start to the monetary easing phase is aimed at stabilizing the economy, but also warned and said that the Fed is not “in a hurry” to cut rates quickly and that it will continue to take a cautious tone on future easing. Investors initially reacted very pessimistically to Powell's hawkish comments, but are now optimistic that the rate cuts (=start of the monetary easing phase) will support equities, especially in the tech and growth sectors.
► Asian equities recovered. The Japanese Nikkei rose by more than 2 % and reached a two-week high, supported by a significantly weaker JPY, which shows that investors no longer expect the Fed to be more dovish than before despite the 50 basis point rate cut. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59%, supported by liquidity injections from the People's Bank of China. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.85% after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (similar to a central bank) cut its key interest rate in line with the Fed's move. Australia's ASX 200 also climbed, reaching a new all-time high after strong labor market data.
► Oil prices rose to over $70.5/barrel (spot price), partly due to improved market sentiment as a result of equity gains, but also due to investor concerns about an impending war between Hezbollah and Israel. Meanwhile, the gold price rose after a volatile session in which it briefly reached a record high. Currently, the gold price is again hovering near the ATH range of $2,585 - $2,590.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate - 01:30 (released: 🟡)
♦️ 🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision - 11:00
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
🔸 🇯🇵 Inflation Rate / CPI - 23:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
🌙 FedEx (FDX) 🇺🇸
🌙 Lennar (LEN) 🇺🇸
☀️ Darden Restaurants (DRI) 🇺🇸
☀️ FactSet Research (FDS) 🇺🇸
(...a few more with market cap <$9B)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
✅ 17.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2577.77)
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19549.90 me / near break-even)
✅ 17.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.11133) 🔄📸
✴️ 17.9 - WMT - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | or SL - 78.69)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 78.07 (if not 78.69) | TP ✅ @: 79.74
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL -19538.90)
✅ 17.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 41653.40)
✅ 17.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2567.53 for me| clsd @: 2567-69) 🔄📸
6/7 - (1 open position)
TODAY :
✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19430.20) 📸
✅ 18.9 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 21.16) 📸
✅ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19450.60) 📸
(❌ 18.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL -1.11636 | optional trade)) 📸
✅ 18.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2587.97 | or clsd 2587-90) 📸
✅ 18.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️(TP - 2585.16) 📸
✴️ 18.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2549.43 | TP ✅ @: 2564.79
✴️ 18.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit / break-even)
5/7 - (5/8 incl. optional only VIP | 2 - open positions)
Sorry for the delay - I had to get some fresh air - what a ... day 😮💨🏆!
We traded exceptionally well today - especially considering we were “team 25 basis points” (like 91-92% of analysts) and still traded the market, the uncertainty and the actual reaction almost perfectly. We made sure all of our positions were closed BEFORE the Fed rate decision as we expected a cautious trade towards the Fed rate decision.
In the end, we did see a 50bp rate cut, but the swap markets were still wrong as they expected an overall dovish outlook, but instead got a “hawkish 50bp rate cut” with a very cautious rate outlook, including Powell saying that no one should assume this is the “new pace” and that the Fed is in no rush and will remain data dependent (which was exactly our second scenario we saw as a possible outcome).
We found exceptional entries and strong exits today ... really almost unbelievable how well we traded today - which was the purest minefield - congratulations! 👏
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 08.08 - 11.09 (26 trading days)
123 / 137 = 89.8% ❗️❗️❗️ Success Rate 📈
(August 7 - 5/7 = 71.4% SR dropped out)
❌ 12.9 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (SL -70.311)
✅ 12.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2522.49 f. me|or TP - 2522.97 - 2529.00)
❌ 12.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.10926) *for me open
✅ 12.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 119.97)
❌ 12.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2567.56)
2/5 = 40% Success Rate
✅ 13.9 - EUR/GBP - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.84381)
✅ 13.9 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 687.69)
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19492.30)
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19539.40)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 16.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2579.67)
❌ 16.9 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 21.13 + pot. neg. slippage)
✅ 16.9 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 215.97 + pot. neg. slippage)
✅ 16.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2581.13)
3/4 = 75% Success Rate
We are now at almost 90% (!) success rate in our 5-week period (with more than 130 trades), which will not be reached for a long time, as tomorrow September 12th will be included in this statistic. If we weren't US and if we weren't 100% transparent, I wouldn't believe it myself that such a success rate is even possible.
If someone tells you that they trade with a short-term success rate of over 80%, you should see that as a RED FLAG. Nearly 90% is in a range that I would consider impossible in short term trading - which of course makes it all the more special that we are at practically 90% here (which means we won 9 out of 10 trades - absolutely insane).
Congratulations - you can be sure that we have traded better than any other short term / medium term trader over the last few chaotic weeks. Most of you have probably made a (small or even bigger) fortune or are now in a much better “state” financially than before. Enjoy it. We are all very happy about your/our success. Please always stay humble and understand what a “lucky” situation we are in and share some of this “luck” with people in need ❤️
Thank you so much (also for your daily motivation)!
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2549.43
TP ✅ @: 2564.79
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 2559 - 2562
Our gold position is back (near) break-even. We can widen our TP a bit and can tighten our SL now. Alternatively - close now with minimal loss (almost break-even). We made two very good gold trades and can be happy to close here break-even in a market that did exactly the opposite what analyst expected.
Most of you have a better initial entry (than mine).
⚡️ "LIVE" TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY (!!!) IN VIP
► We re-enter gold LONG (!) now below $2,565 (near $2,560).
► We see the hawkish 50 bp rate cut we expected as one of the two possible scenarios. While the market was expecting a 50 bp rate cut - Powell is NOT giving a clear outlook for further rapid rate cuts.
► Nevertheless, we saw a rate cut of 50 basis points. Gold will benefit from monetary easing.
► Gold saw a significant drop (yields rose) after Powell said that cheap money as we have seen “in the past” is unlikely to come back for a long time. And that the neutral rate is likely to be much higher than what we've seen most of the time (pre-Covid) - so rates won't go towards 0% for a long time.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
position code / 100% Transparenz - 24091807A
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY (!!!) IN VIP
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
🥇📉2️⃣5️⃣6️⃣0️⃣📈
Congratulations - we are trading the gold movement almost perfectly, but we are aware that probably over 99% of short-term gold traders have made big losses with the current swings (especially going all-in LONG after the 50-bp rate cut). We have found good entries AND exits.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
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