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BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 75+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► We witnessed a significant correction on Wall Street after new ATHs were reached (Dow Jones / S&P 500), particularly after heavy losses in the chip sector and at healthcare giant UnitedHealth. The tech sector slipped by 1.8%, with Nvidia (and the losses in the chip sector) weighing heavily on the sector. We are LONG in Nvidia and bought the dip near the bottom - we currently see Nvidia trading 0.6% higher supported by the hope that the sharp correction in chip stocks is short-lived.
► We see a general stabilization in equities, which is also supported by the ongoing expectation of a 25bp rate cut in early November (according to swap markets, the probability of a 25bp rate cut is now around 95% - up ~10%).
► Earnings were mixed, with weakness in Europe, the luxury sector and ASML (weak outlook), but strong (US) bank earnings.
► We are going LONG here and expect the Dow Jones to recover some of yesterday's losses. We currently see the Dow Jones down 0.1% after falling 0.75% yesterday. We find an entry now (or range 42750 - 42790) and expect the Dow Jones to rise (at least temporarily and very soon) back above 42900 (we set the TP slightly above 42900).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) and trade the Dow Jones (US30)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 75+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
position code / 100% transparency - 24101601A
———
🔤🔤🔤↗️
4️⃣2️⃣7️⃣8️⃣0️⃣
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✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2655.08)
✅ 14.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 43089.70)
❌ 14.10 - AMD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 159.97 f. me)
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2645.13)
✴️ 14.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.30526 🔄
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2654.48) 🔄
4/6 - (1 open position)
TODAY :
✴️ 15.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry)
👉 TP ✅ @: 20448.90 🔄
✅ 15.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2661.47 f. me | or TP-2660.56)
✅ 15.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 42988.70 | or CLSD near 43050)
✅ 15.10 - GS - LONG ↗️ (SL - 523.34)
✴️ 15.10 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 130.83 | TP ✅ @: 134.89
3/5 - (2 open positions)
Strong selling in the chip sector following the news of possible further extensive US export restrictions weighed on the Nasdaq 100 and Wall Street as a whole today. The energy sector also performed poorly, as did UnitedHealth, the world's largest health insurance company. The sell-off in the chip sector was the main reason for a clearly negative day/performance for the Nasdaq 100 and also led to our AMD position falling deeply into the red. The losses were widespread for the entire chip sector and were further exacerbated after Dutch chipmaker ASML suffered its sharpest drop in 26 years after ASML was only able to book about half the orders that analysts had expected.
We are tightening our TP of our Nasdaq 100 position(s) by 100 points. The focus remains on the current earnings season (which otherwise started solidly). Overall, however, we didn't maneuver through the market too badly and even made solid dip buys with the Dow Jones, (as "always" gold), GS and even NVDA - which, however, is now -0.6% in after-hours trading (but still well in the money - at least for now) as concerns in the chip sector could spill over into tomorrow's markets.
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 130.83
TP ✅ @: 134.89
You can tighten the SL of your Nvidia position before today's NYSE closing.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 42988.70
TP ✅ @: 43077.90
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 43050 (near)
I still see the Dow Jones pushing back to the 43100 - 43200 but we don't want to overexposed (and too greedy).
We thus work here now with a tight SL. You can also work with an in-profit SL (depending on your entry - but most of you have a better entry than I have). You can also work with a wider TP - but we are quite LONG positioned - so I am happy with closing soon (at a still very nice profit) or even NOW.
———
Great prediction!...
AGAINST the market & taking advantage of panic selling! 🎯💵
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Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ triggered @: 2661.47 (for me) | Or TP 2660.56
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STAY LONG / IMPROVE ENTRY* 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
🔰 FREE OPTIONAL TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* 🔼 Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► We made a wonderful/quasi-perfect gold trade, but the heavy selling of chip stocks after the big concern that there will be further export restrictions is weighing heavily on the Nasdaq (especially on Nvidia, which is now down 5.5% at 130). We see panic selling here in particular - and very isolated losses overall (in the AI chip sector) - which also affect Broadcom, AMD (hit my SL at 159.97 for a significant loss; If you're still LONG in AMD, I expect AMD to see buying and move back towards 160+).
► So we can optimize our entry into the Nasdaq 100 with a smaller re-entry at 20200*. // we stay LONG in the Dow Jones, which is not really affected. You can also buy a reduced position in Nvidia (at 129 - 130.50*), but the stock will remain very volatile - so if you do, please trade a little smaller - such as 1/2 your regular trade size. Nvidia doesn't need additional demand from foreign buyers to stay on an uptrend, and will therefore recover (the difficulty with this is hitting the ideal entry price - we're trying).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 180 - 200 (18,000% - 20,000%) if you use Nvidia (NVDA) - 1/2 trade size
position code / 100% transparency - 24101501B
position code / 100% transparency - 24101505A (NVDA)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
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——-
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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY (VIP ONLY) 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 35+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
🔹 The Nasdaq 100 (+ 0.15%) is now slightly up and moving back towards 20500. We have found an excellent entry point. We can work with a TP ~100 points above our entry: TP ✅ @: 20548.90
🔹 AMD (-0.6%) is trading weaker along with other AI chipmakers and is clearly underperforming the Nasdaq 100. A Bloomberg report that the Biden administration is discussing further sales restrictions on advanced AI chips to some countries is weighing heavily on the chip sector - especially on AMD, as sales are particularly important in B2C. We are pulling our TP to ✅ @: 167.89.
► While I see some solid trades here - but above all we see a very sentiment-driven market and yet general optimism - added to that, the markets ran a bit hot but continue to be bought. The headwind for chip stocks is limiting gains in the Nasdaq 100 - but it is still up. I expect chip stocks to be able to stabilize after initial selling.
► UnitedHealth is trading almost 10 % lower, although the company increased both sales and profits in the third quarter. The company lowered its earnings forecast due to ongoing headwinds from a cyberattack earlier in the year, which reduced UnitedHealth's appeal as a defensive stock. However, the losses went a long way - I expect (VIP ONLY) ...
► UNH is (VIP ONLY) - hence the heavy underperformance (VIP ONLY). Given the overall solid earnings (especially in banks), but also the good earnings of consumer goods/healthcare giant J&J and the strong earnings of(VIP ONLY), we see (VIP ONLY) ...
► We go LONG(VIP ONLY)* (possible range (VIP ONLY)). Volatility could also drive (VIP ONLY) - we (VIP ONLY)...
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
position code / 100% transparency - 24101503A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 35+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
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BUY NOW* 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► We see Wall Street flat (slightly negative, with some losses in the health care and energy sectors and some profit taking in the chip sector and in Tesla after yesterday's gains).
► Stocks ran hot, with the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 reaching new ATHs yesterday.
► We are seeing significantly lower oil prices after signs that Israel will refrain from attacking Iranian oil facilities have intensified. The lower oil prices support the growth sectors.
► The markets had also priced in some additional risks from further escalations in the Middle East, which also offers slight potential for recovery. The situation remains extremely volatile, but both Israel and Iran are not interested in an ‘outright’ conflict, as Israel is already fighting on several fronts and Iran is unable to resist Israel (with US support), has economic problems and is trying to protect its nuclear bomb program, which it can use as a strong bargaining chip.
► We will likely see some light additional profit taking in pre-market trading (possibly some light selling after the NYSE open as well), but we may find a good entry point in the Nasdaq 100 in the 20415 - 20445* area or just under 100 points below yesterday's highs.
► We are seeing another round of strong bank earnings (as just reported by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, as well as Charles Schwab very positive - a sign of continued strong demand for trading/investing - which is buoying the markets). The outperformance of financial stocks is now leading to a certain rotation from growth to financial stocks in the short term - but this is likely to be short-lived.
► Further significant USD gains (headwinds for the US growth sector) are increasingly limited as USD pairs are at key levels. Our GBP/USD is slightly out of profit - we tighten our TP ✅ @: 1.30523.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4.5- 6.5 (450% - 650%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100)
position code / 100% transparency - 24101501A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
✅ 26.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 26.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 27.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 30.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 30.9 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 2.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 4.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 4.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 7.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 8.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 10.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
❌ 10.10 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 11.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 11.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 14.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
(clickable = 100% Transparency)
21/22 = 95.5% ❗️ Success Rate
🆕 15.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Tuesday, October 15
❗️ Stock markets steady after gains; Oil and energy stocks drop; US futures steady before bank earnings
► European stocks are slightly lower after a positive session with Stoxx 600 0.2% lower as advances were limited by a decline in oil stocks. Shares in TotalEnergies and BP dropped 4.2% and 3.5% respectively, as Brent crude fell below $75/barrel (WTI to ~$70.00 spot price) after reports suggested Israel would not target Iranian oil facilities - as already predicted by our Chief Analyst. Meanwhile, economic data showed a 1.5% drop in Spain’s September inflation, its lowest since March 2021, and France’s inflation rate fell to 1.1% for the same month. UK wage inflation cooled down to 4.9% from 5.1% while labor market data improved.
► US equity futures were steady after the S&P 500 hit its 46th record high this year, driven by gains in Nvidia, which climbed more than 2.4% yesterday (now -0.8% in pre-market trading), followed by Apple and Tesla. Treasury yields are litle changed but the USD strengthened against most G-10 currencies. Investors are closely watching key earnings reports from major banks like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America later today. Despite lower profit forecasts, analysts remain optimistic for positive surprises, as third-quarter results are expected to reflect resilience in corporate profit growth.
► In Asia, stock performance was mixed. Technology shares led gains in Japan and Australia, while Chinese stocks lagged. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 0.87%, hitting its highest level in 12 weeks, while China’s Shanghai Composite slid by over 2% (which also pressures Europe) amid concerns that recent stimulus measures may not be sufficient to sustain growth. Investors are also awaiting more concrete fiscal stimulus from China. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell by over 3% ahead of policy announcements from local leaders.
► Oil prices fell 2.5% after news that Israel has no immediate plans to attack Iranian energy facilities, easing concerns about oil supplies. Contrary to SmartTrader analyst Robert Lindner, most analysts expected an immediate Israeli retaliation, which sent oil prices soaring earlier in the month. Our chief analyst also says that it is not Israel's strategy to retaliate when it is widely expected and has already been announced – rather, Israel acts with the advantage of surprise and with (more or less) targeted strikes. WTI crude oil fell below $70/barrel (spot price). Gold is trading at around $2,653/ounce, supported by expectations that it remains a very strong medium to long-term investment despite headwinds such as a stronger USD and weaker Chinese demand.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇯🇵 Industrial Production - 04:30 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate - 06:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇫🇷 Inflation Rate - 06:45 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇪🇸 Inflation Rate - 07:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇪🇺 Industrial Production - 09:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index - 09:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index - 09:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇨🇦 Inflation Rate / CPI - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Consumer Inflation Expectations - 15:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ UnitedHealth (UNH) 🇺🇸
☀️ J&J (JNJ) 🇺🇸
☀️ Louis Vuitton (LVMUY) 🇫🇷
☀️ Bank of America (BAC) 🇺🇸
☀️ Goldman Sachs (GS) 🇺🇸
☀️ Progressive (PGR) 🇺🇸
☀️ Citigroup (C) 🇺🇸
☀️ Charles Schwab (SCHW) 🇺🇸
🌙 Rio Tinto (RIO) 🇬🇧
☀️ PNC Financial (PNC) 🇺🇸
🌙 Interactive Brokers (IBKR) 🇺🇸
🌙 America Movil (AMX) 🇲🇽
☀️ State Street (STT) 🇺🇸
☀️ LM Ericsson (ERIC) 🇸🇪
🌙 United Airlines Holdings (UAL) 🇺🇸
🌙 Omnicom (OMC) 🇺🇸
...
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 04.09 - 07.10 (26 trading days)
122 / 131 = 93.1% 🏆 Success Rate 📈
(September 3 - 4/6 = 66.7% SR dropped out)
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2637.86|or TP - 2640.22)
✅ 8.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19969.90|or clsd 19975+)
✅ 8.10 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 718.49)
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2617.93)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 9.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.30743)
❌ 9.10 - CVX - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 151.53)
✅ 9.10 - FDX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 266.87)
✅ 9.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP- 2615.84 me|or TP-2616.23)
✅ 9.10 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 72.561) 🔄
4/5 = 80% Success Rate
✅ 10.10 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 148.993 | or clsd 148.850+)
✅ 10.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2620.23 f. me | or 2616 - 2621)
✅ 10.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 42433.20)
✅ 10.10 - AMZN - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 187.16)
✅ 10.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 20218.60)
❌ 10.10 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19442.80) 🔄
5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate
... 93.1% ‼️ Success rate in 131 trades (in the five weeks period Sep, 04 - Oct, 07).
I don't know what to say. We have only lost 9 out of 131 trades. I don't think this is even possible – especially when you know our trading style / we mostly trade against the market / we trade all asset classes – including volatile stocks / we trade pretty much evenly SHORT and LONG and don't close for micro-profits... etc. In fact, it's really far away from what I would believe is possible.
I think we've had so many "unachievable" successes in the last few weeks that I don't even know how to describe it anymore. Congratulations to all of us 🎆Thank YOU for your motivation and the kind words you say every day (to me, to the team and to each other).
I look forward to meeting you in person (or in our Discord community: 📱 https://discord.gg/akn7tusA). Do something good, help others, spread optimism, be an anchor for someone who needs one. You are great.
Our WTI position hit our TP - and then dropped a lot more (if you're still SHORT, close now in the 71.00 - 71.35 range for a mega profit).
Your Robert 🤝
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SELL NOW 🔽 GBP/USD
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► We have traded the larger moves very well today, including very good timing. We also remain SHORT on oil prices – the oil price fell significantly by 2.5% today due to a reduced risk premium and a further reduced OPEC demand forecast – but this has not (yet) triggered our TP.
► There was a slight headwind for the USD from the rather dovish comments of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari (non-voting member), who said that it was likely that ‘further moderate reductions’ in the central bank's key interest rate would be appropriate in the coming quarters. For me, this is a ‘non-statement’ as the Fed will remain completely data-dependent.
► We see rate cut expectations fairly unchanged – with still a bit over an 85% chance of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in November (15% chance of a pause).
► We continue to see a strong USD, with the DXY also up 0.35% on weakness in JPY, EUR and CNY. We closed our AUD/USD SHORT early Asian trading today (or a bit later with a possible TP at 0.67188). US Treasury/cash markets remain closed today for Columbus Day in the US.
► We are buying the rebound (attempt) in GBP/USD - which is about 35 pips above the session lows (we find near 1.03565 and see rising resistance towards / especially above 1.03600).
► UK PM Keir Starmer tried to spark investor interest in the UK. Reaffirming the government's pro-growth narrative, Starmer said Labour would cut red tape - I see limited impact - and see more structural issues in the UK, including fiscal uncertainty. I expect U.K. wage growth to show clear signs of cooling tomorrow, as will inflation – which will reinforce the expectation that the BoE will be able to return rates to a neutral level faster than the Fed.
position code / 100% transparency - 24101405A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2651.67
TP ✅ @: 2645.13
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 2647 - 2648.50
We found the perfect entry into gold (we spotted the temporary rebound trap immediately, triggered by the increased volatility in New York - all as expected/foreseen by us).
Your TP might have been triggered (not for me due to a spread of a few cents). We can extend our TP slightly as we will probably see a lower low. Alternatively, you can close here / or hold the TP at 2646.26.
Congratulations! We continue to trade gold more successfully (probably by a wide margin) in intraday trading than any other short-term trader.
———
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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY DURING* NYSE OPENING VOLA 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY WHEN** NYSE OPENS🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
We see Wall Street continuing to extend its gains as the earnings season got off to a strong start on Friday. We have no open position on Wall Street and are not LONG any indices. We probably see increased (more than recently) volatility during NYSE opening on Monday – but overall, investors remain cautiously optimistic for now.
► We see that growth, technology and financial stocks are performing strongly in the US in pre-market trading. The Dow Jones is an underperformer and is down 0.15% from Friday's close, due to underperformance by Dow Jones heavyweights Caterpillar (downgraded by Morgan Stanley) and Amgen (downgraded by Truist). Boeing is also trading sharply lower in pre-market trading.
► We expect the gains in the growth sector to broaden somewhat as the day progresses, although probably only energy and commodity stocks (such as mining companies) are significantly underperforming today, but play a minor role in the Dow Jones (with only CVX having a significant weight in the Dow Jones).
► We can therefore enter the Dow Jones by taking advantage of the volatility at the NYSE opening (near 42840* - or wait a little longer as increased volatility may give us an even better entry price).
► We generally expect the current positive trend to continue, especially as the risk premium has narrowed, which rose after last week's mixed data, geopolitical tensions and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts.
► (VIP ONLY) took some heavy losses after what I thought was a (VIP ONLY) positive (VIP ONLY), where (VIP ONLY) and revealed some encouraging news for (VIP ONLY) ...
► Most notably (VIP ONLY) currently the most powerful (VIP ONLY) ...
► (VIP ONLY) has delivered – but basically what the market expected. In my opinion, the really positive aspects (VIP ONLY) already priced in – hence the slight sell-off, even though (VIP ONLY) has delivered on its promises and can show impressive revenue growth (and has enormous potential revenue growth ahead of it). (VIP ONLY) opens slightly higher / almost flat (VIP ONLY) and probably extends Friday's gains - we are trying to find an entry at the bottom or below this range (VIP ONLY) ...
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) and trade the Dow Jones (US30)
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
position code / 100% Transparenz - 24101402A (US30)
position code / 100% Transparenz - 24101403A (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
🔤🔤🔤📉🎯📈
4️⃣2️⃣8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣📈
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🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: ~60 (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► Gold recovered towards the end of last week and is trading little changed (slightly higher) at around $2,660 today, currently with a downward trend again. Although gold remains a strong investment in the medium to long term and still has plenty of room to rise by 2024, the ongoing USD momentum and the significantly reduced Fed interest rate cut expectations are weighing on the yellow precious metal in the short term.
► Yields have also risen slightly – both in the US and in Europe (despite expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates on Thursday and is under pressure to cut them further). The Fed's likely slower path of interest rate cuts (also compared to other central banks – especially in Europe) and the robust US economy will continue to support the USD.
► We also see a reduced risk premium, with oil prices in particular falling sharply at the beginning of the week, as we already predicted on Friday.
► In addition, Friday was a good start to the earnings season, with banks reporting strong quarters and JPMorgan (the largest US bank) closing 4.4% higher (temporarily over 5% higher).
► We see other precious metals trading lower on Monday (silver -0.4% // platinum -0.6%), which also puts pressure on gold's current recovery rally.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.7 (50% - 70%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
position code / 100% transparency - 24101401A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: ~60 (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
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✅ 10.10 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 148.993 | or clsd 148.850+)
✅10.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2620.23 f. me | or 2616 - 2621)
👉 TP ✅ @: 2633.56 (in case you are still; close soon)
✅ 10.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 42433.20)
✅ 10.10 - AMZN - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 187.16)
✅ 10.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 20218.60) 🔄
✴️ 10.10 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 19442.80 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 19222.60 🔄
5/6 - (1 open position)
TODAY :
✅ 11.10 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 0.67306) 📸
👉 TP ✅ @: 0.67188 (in case you are still)
✅ 11.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 20308.30)
✅ 11.10 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 221.43)
✅ 11.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 42806.60)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
I'll be brief. Our AUD/USD hit the TP 📸 in early Asian trading (for a small profit; if you're still SHORT, you can close a bit better).
Otherwise, we traded Friday's chaotic sideways market very well and brought home another day with a 100% 🏆 success rate.
We can tighten the SL & TP for our still open DAX position – we didn't get a great entry here and should have closed in profit on Friday. Unfortunately, if our SL is triggered, our current incredible winning streak with indices will come to an end:
Last 21 index trades:
✅ 26.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 26.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 27.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 30.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 30.9 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 2.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 4.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 4.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 7.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 8.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 10.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✴️ 10.10 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 11.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 11.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️
(clickable = 100% Transparency)
20/21 (+ 1 open position)
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
SL 🔑 @: 19453.60
TP ✅ @: 19212.10
AUD/USD
SL 🔑 @: 0.67887
TP ✅ @: 0.67306
I'm going into the weekend with a former colleague of mine inviting me to dinner for his 40th birthday (by the way, it's my turn next - oha 😱). We no longer see any volume in the markets - but a still robust stock market - the robustness is surprising in the end given some uncertainties.
We closed our Dow Jones slightly in profit (SL), which was the right decision. We limit potential losses with our DAX position - the DAX could face headwinds if China does not announce new stimulus measures over the weekend / on Monday (or in the event of further ‘escalation’ in the Middle East - which I do not expect (but would certainly also push our WTI position into the SL).
Our AUD/USD is slightly out of the money. I even see an opportunity here to SHORT the EUR/USD, but we don't want to overposition ourselves. We update with a tight TP / not too wide SL.
Enjoy your weekend. The overview will come later tonight or tomorrow. It was a rather unspectacular day - but I'm very happy that we made the best NYSE opening trade (market cap >$30B; with JPMorgan) - although gains went even further than I had expected.
Your Robert
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Wednesday, October 16
❗️ European & Asian stocks lower after yesterday's tech slide; Luxury, energy sectors struggle; Oil dips, gold nears ATH
► European stocks slid as the luxury sector's earnings and a tech-led slump weighed on the markets. The Stoxx 600 fell by over 0.3%, with chip giant ASML continuing its downward trend after its profit warning, dragging the semiconductor sector. Luxury brands like LVMH and Salvatore Ferragamo dropped sharply by as much as 7%, following weaker-than-expected earnings. The GBP fell sharply (currently -0.6%) after inflation in the UK fell more sharply than forecast, surprising investors who had recently been betting on a rising GBP again. Bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have now increased - our chief analyst had already predicted this development at the beginning of the week.
► U.S. stock futures showed minimal movement after Tuesday’s selloff driven by sharp losses from semiconductor companies. S&P 500 futures traded flat, while Nasdaq futures gained slightly, with investors turning their attention to economic data including retail sales (THU) and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials. Treasury yields edged lower as investors braced for further economic guidance. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic hinted at possible bumps in inflation's downward path now mirroring what SmartTrader Chief Analyst Robert Lindner saw as major headache for the Fed while maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook on the economy.
► Asian markets had mixed performances with Japan’s Nikkei leading declines, falling by over 1.8% following the global selloff in chipmakers. The JPY stabilized around 149/USD after comments from the Bank of Japan signaling a gradual approach to interest rate increases. In contrast, China’s property shares surged as much as 8.3% on optimism ahead of a government briefing. However, analysts cautioned that this optimism may only provide short-term relief.
► Oil prices declined to $70/barrel (WTI; spot price), with crude prices remaining volatile this month, influenced by both Middle East tensions and China’s efforts to revive economic growth (and the investors increasingly not believing that Beijing will be successful with it). Gold continues to rise near its all-time high, trading currently near $2,680/oz, supported by safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty. Despite reduced concerns over Israeli strikes on Iranian oil and a stronger USD, gold remains resilient, buoyed by lower U.S. yields and renewed Chinese interest as local markets face instability. Gold's resilience while facing a long list of small headwinds is a sign of strength according to our Chief Analyst.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇬🇧 Inflation Rate / CPI - 06:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇬🇧 PPI - 06:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇬🇧 Retail Price Index - 06:00 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate / CPI - 08:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speech - 18:40
🔸 🇺🇸 API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
🔸 🇯🇵 Balance of Trade - 23:50
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ Abbott Labs (ABT) 🇺🇸
☀️ Morgan Stanley (MS) 🇺🇸
🌙 BHP Group (BHP) 🇦🇺
☀️ Prologis (PLD) 🇺🇸
☀️ Lam Research (LRCX) 🇺🇸
☀️ U.S. Bancorp (USB) 🇺🇸
🌙 CSX (CSX) 🇺🇸
🌙 Kinder Morgan (KMI) 🇺🇸
🌙 Crown Castle (CCI) 🇺🇸
☀️ Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 🇺🇸
🌙 Discover (DFS) 🇺🇸
🌙 Equifax (EFX) 🇺🇸
...
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 05.09 - 08.10 (26 trading days)
119 / 128 = 93% ❗️ Success Rate
(September 4 - 7/7 = 100% 🏆 SR dropped out)
✅ 9.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.30743)
❌ 9.10 - CVX - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 151.53)
✅ 9.10 - FDX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 266.87)
✅ 9.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP- 2615.84 me|or TP-2616.23)
✅ 9.10 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 72.561)
4/5 = 80% Success Rate
✅ 10.10 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 148.993 | or clsd 148.850+)
✅ 10.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2620.23 f. me | or 2616 - 2621)
✅ 10.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 42433.20)
✅ 10.10 - AMZN - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 187.16)
✅ 10.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 20218.60)
❌ 10.10 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 19442.80)
5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate
✅ 11.10 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 0.67306)
✅ 11.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 20308.30)
✅ 11.10 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 221.43)
✅ 11.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 42806.60)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
Our success rate in our five-week period fell slightly (from 93.1% to 93.0%), even though a 100% 🏆 day was added (4 out of 4). At the same time, however, September 4 fell out of the “five-week period” as a “7 out of 7” day - also a 100% 🏆 day. It is also probably the last time for a long time (possibly a very long time) that we will be at/above 93% (or in reality that anyone in the world, whether short or medium term trader achieves such a success rate over more than 100 trades - I still think this success rate is actually "impossible" to achieve)
Thus, congratulations again 👏 on this truly incomprehensible performance over the last 3+ months (and beyond).
No other update here as all trades were already closed yesterday.
——-
You can open the following pending order as we now see gold moving from the $2,640 - $2,660 range towards a $2,650 - $2,675 moving range. This order can trigger during Asian trading.
🔰 POTENTIAL TRADE: PENDING ORDER 🕯
PENDING ORDER 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
"BUY" AT 🔼 2652.87 (or range 2650 - 2654)
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.7 (50% - 70%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Goldman Sachs (GS) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 523.34
TP ✅ @: 527.23
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 130.39
TP ✅ @: 134.89
We have found a good entry point in Goldman Sachs. The investment bank was able to recover above 525, but continues to see profit taking. Given GS's recent strong gains and a lot of positives being priced in, we prefer to lock in profits.
We also set a SL for Nvidia. We actually tried the impossible, to catch Nvidia in a freefall. We actually managed to do that very well and the chip giant did indeed find support below $130 (and remains bullish overall).
We are reducing our overall Wall Street exposure.
(I didn't share the CVX trade yesterday - because I didn't want to position you twice SHORT in oil; so you can ignore it)
———
We remained calm and made good decision.
Good job guys 👏💵
WRITE US NOW AND BECOME VIP MEMBER 👤⚡️
OR: Other contact possibilities ❤️
⚡️ RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 75+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► We are buying the decline in (VIP ONLY) after somewhat broader profit taking at the NYSE open today following record closes yesterday.
► We now see (VIP ONLY) even in the red after the (VIP ONLY) released strong and third quarter earnings and revenues that significantly beat expectations, largely due to (VIP ONLY) ...
► A lot of positives were certainly priced into (VIP ONLY), especially after the strong (VIP ONLY). Nevertheless, (VIP ONLY) presented really very good earnings results and also spoke of an overall improved situation - rather than (VIP ONLY) ...
► We are therefore buying (VIP ONLY) in slightly negative territory (range (VIP ONLY)) and expect GS to move "back" into the (VIP ONLY) range.
🗣️ Tipp: (VIP ONLY)
position code / 100% transparency - 24101504A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 75+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
A MEGA TRADE WITH VERY GOOD TIMING! 📈
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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2656.43
TP ✅ @: 2661.47
We secure profits with our gold position and slight widen our TP as we expect an additional spike after gold can briefly break the 2660. We continue to see gold hovering in range $2,640 - $2,660 we can thus find a better re-entry in either way.
PS: Sorry Gold already hit your TP at 2660.56 - if not - please still close in the current range 2661 - 2665 as we continue to expect (also technical) resistance above 2660
⏱️ Udpate DELAYED by: 5+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► Our Gold position has reached our TP ✅ (at 2654.48) // if you are still LONG, stay LONG.
► Despite a significantly reduced risk premium, as exaggerated concerns that Israel will attack Iranian oil facilities have diminished, we continue to see gold as very resilient, with gold holding up well despite the recent strong rise in the USD, which has made gold more expensive for non-USD buyers.
► In Asian/early European trading, there was a sharp decline in the gold price, mainly due to lower demand for safe havens, but also due to continued weak demand from China. However, as Chinese equities point to renewed uncertainty (when the excitement over the stimulus measures subsides), Chinese investors will also start investing in gold again. We also saw two dips below $2,550 after making higher highs. We are now buying the second dip.
► Gold continues to fluctuate around the $2,650 mark (we are buying here $2,645 - $2,647.50) and see the overall upward momentum as intact, with gold soon testing the $2,660 mark again. We continue to see buying below $2,650.
► We are seeing slightly lower US yields, which also reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.7 (50% - 70%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
position code / 100% transparency - 24101502A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
Fabulous timing again 🎯
Please make sure you receive all signals with NO DELAY (in SmartTrader VIP - you can join for FREE).
Write us! Become SmartTrader VIP MEMBER for FREE 👤👑
SmartTrader is the world's only 100% transparent trading community.
We won our last 20 (!) gold trades.
✅ 23.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 26.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 26.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 26.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 27.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 27.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (+Re-Entry)
✅ 30.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 2.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 3.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 4.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (+Re-Entry)
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 9.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
20/20 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
📣 Join Our "SmartTrader Essentials" Webinar TODAY!
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✅ 11.10 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 0.67306)
✅ 11.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 20308.30)
✅ 11.10 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 221.43)
✅ 11.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 42806.60)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
TODAY :
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2655.08)
✅ 14.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 43089.70) 📸
✴️ 14.10 - AMD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2645.13) 📸
✴️ 14.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.30331 🔄
✴️ 14.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 2654.48 (or slightly wider near 2660) 🔄
A very difficult day indeed, with the markets actually running quite hot again. But given the uncertainties in the market, the current resilience suggests that the rally may extend a little further (even at / beyond ATH) even as more and more analysts see the risk of a stronger profit-taking wave (but remain invested).
We had excellent timing in gold trading today - actually a very difficult day for gold trading - due to the closed cash & bond markets. Given the weakness in metals (base metals/industrial metals/precious metals) and the continued strength of the USD, gold is surprisingly resilient (which represents a lot of resilience and medium-term upside potential).
Not the best timing for our position in AMD - which also ran a bit hot (already on Friday). You can set the TP for your gold position tighter as I see gold staying near $2,650 for a while. Also set a not too wide TP for the GBP/USD (which continues to see some dip buying towards the strong key 1.30000 level).
Congrats - we traded the difficult market really well today. We closed our WTI SHORT very well (and finally) as oil prices fell another 2.5% in after-hours trading. Congratulations also on being there when the Dow Jones hit / broke through the 43000 level for the first time. We made a really very nice Dow Jones 📸 LONG today 🔥
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► Gold remains a mystery (especially for those who do not have sentiment analysis in their repertoire - which 99% of traders cannot do, also due to lack of data and the general difficulty to understand market/risk sentiment) and has recently been a major money-burner for short-term traders, as gold continues to be sentiment-driven. This has recently led to losses for technical, but also for fundamental traders, who focused exclusively on fundamentals for short-term movements. It is all the crazier that we have won our last 19 (not 20) gold trades (!) (= 100% success rate).
► We continue to see many small headwinds for gold, including a stronger USD, weak demand from China - also due to a weak CNY - rising yields and fading rate cut expectations. Furthermore, the risk premium has narrowed significantly recently, and lower prices for base metals and other precious metals have also weighed on the gold price. Despite all this, we see gold as resilient, which shows how much gold is generally supported by expectations that it will remain one of the best medium-/long-term investments.
► We turn around and see that gold's overall upward momentum continues.
► We find an entry point into gold here (range $2,647.00 - $2,649.50) / below $2,650 and expect gold to find support at and below $2,650. We can work with a TP (VIP ONLY) ...
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.7 (50% - 70%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
position code / 100% transparency - 24101406A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
ONCE AGAIN: (near) perfect entry.
🛑 NEVER MISS A GOLD TRADE 🥇🎯
✅ 23.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 26.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 26.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 26.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 27.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 27.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (+Re-Entry)
✅ 30.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 2.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 3.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 4.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (+Re-Entry)
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 9.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 14.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
19/19 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
🆕 14.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
UPDATE - All gold trades clickable = 100% (!) Transparency
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 43013.30
TP ✅ @: 43089.70
We traded the underperformance and including the NYSE opening volatility (including slight selling) extremely well with the Dow Jones. The Dow Jones rose for the first time ever above 43000. We now set a tight SL and secure beautiful profits.
Congratulations - perfect timing / prediction.
———
✅ 26.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 26.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 27.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 30.9 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 30.9 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 2.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 4.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 4.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 7.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 8.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 10.10 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
❌ 10.10 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 11.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 11.10 - US30 - SHORT ↘️
✅ 14.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️
(clickable = 100% Transparency)
21/22 = 95.5% ❗️ Success Rate
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
► The volatility at the opening of the NYSE (which we expected) caused gold to rise again (probably only temporarily) above $2,660 - we are going SHORT here again, as fundamentally not much has changed for gold.
► We also expect the current volatility to flatten out as risk sentiment and Wall Street's overall performance is likely to remain positive, reducing the current short-term boost to gold as a safe haven.
► We find an entry point for gold in the range $2,660 - $2,663 and expect the gold price to experience only a brief rebound, but to test the $2,650 level again. In the medium term, gold remains (of course) bullish.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.7 (50% - 70%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
position code / 100% transparency - 24101404A
⏱️ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
We have hit the perfect entry here ‘on the minute’ again - at least if you receive the signals WITHOUT DELAY -> in SmartTrader VIP. You can become a VIP member at any time and even for FREE.
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2655.08
TP ✅ @: 2646.16
We are setting an In-Profit-SL here and may find a better re-entry at $2,660 if gold can rise back above $2,655 (possibly with increased volatility during the NYSE opening). However, I expect gold to break through the 2650 level (downwards) – which could then trigger additional selling. So we can extend our TP slightly.
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, October 14
❗️ Global stocks gain in anticipation of expected ECB rate cut & hopes of more CN stimulus; Earnings seasons continues
► European stocks are little changed, with the Stoxx 600 trading flat. Investors weighed China’s latest fiscal stimulus measures, which sparked skepticism due to the lack of a definitive monetary package. The French CAC40 is trading 0.3% lower, but the German DAX is up 0.25%. The EUR weakened further against the USD, reflecting expectations of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) this Thursday. Concerns about France’s public finances and Germany’s ongoing economic malaise contributed to the cautious tone. Germany’s economy is expected to remain flat throughout 2024, and a Bloomberg survey shows that recession fears are mounting. French bond futures showed little change, while disinflationary pressures and softer activity data have increased the likelihood of ECB action.
► Last Friday, we saw gains across all three major indices supported by strong earnings from major banks. Currently, U.S. stock futures are slightly up (in pre-market) as the earnings season goes into full swing, with major U.S. banks like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America set to report their results on Tuesday. S&P 500 futures edged higher by 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures remain unchanged. Investors are closely watching these earnings to gauge the strength of the banking sector and the broader economy. The Fed’s signals on inflation and interest rates will be closely monitored this week, especially with retail sales data (THU) and speeches from Fed officials on the horizon.
► Asian markets showed a mixed performance, largely driven by China’s stimulus measures and inflation data. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered over 2%, buoyed by hopes of government support for the struggling property sector. However, the announcement lacked a clear monetary boost, leaving some investors uncertain about the sustainability of the rally. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, meanwhile, reversed earlier gains to fall by 0.7% after a three-day weekend, as concerns over broader economic weaknesses weighed on the market. China’s consumer inflation fell to 0.4% in September, its lowest level in three months, while producer prices extended their decline. In Japan, the Nikkei market was closed due to a holiday, but the JPY continued to weaken, sliding past 149/USD, near its lowest level in months.
► Oil prices declined as traders weigh the possibility that Israel may avoid targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure in response to last week's missile attack, which would ease fears of a major supply disruption. Additionally, the U.S. tightening sanctions on Iran, particularly on its "ghost fleet" of illicit oil shipments, has calmed the market, reducing immediate concerns about a supply shock. Also Hurrikan Milton has dissipated. WTI Crude oil prices are now trading at $73.3/barrel falling 2.5%. Meanwhile, gold remains little changed (but supported, trading slightly below $2,660/oz.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
No key events today
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No major earnings reports today
📈 Tuesday - UnitedHealth, Louis Vuitton, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup ...
📈 Wednesday - ASML, Morgan Stanley ...
📈 Thursday - TSMC, Netflix, Nestle ...
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 03.09 - 04.10 (26 trading days)
121 / 132 = 91.7%❗️Success Rate 📈
(August 30 - 1/1 = 100% 🏆 SR dropped out)
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2642.67 | or TP - 2648.61)
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2645.86)
✅ 7.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 42246.90)
✅ 7.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2647.67)
✅ 7.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.30808)
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2637.86|or TP - 2640.22)
✅ 8.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19969.90|or clsd 19975+)
✅ 8.10 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 718.49)
✅ 8.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2617.93)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 9.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.30743)
❌ 9.10 - CVX - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 151.53) 🔄
✅ 9.10 - FDX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 266.87)
✅ 9.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP- 2615.84 me|or TP-2616.23)
✴️ 9.10 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 75.268 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 72.561
3/5 - (1 open position)
Sorry for my somewhat delayed update – but now for the start of the Asian session. It was a busy weekend as I am also actively planning to move – which is a big undertaking (probably mid-November or by the end of the year at the latest). Our success rate has increased again – it is now at 91.7% in the ‘five-week period’ – congratulations – it remains extraordinary, or at an ‘absurd’ level.
The first movements at the beginning of the week were positive for us. In the Middle East, there were no further ‘significant escalations’ as we had expected, which also caused the hot oil prices to cool somewhat at the beginning of the week (we also see that gold is erasing some of Friday's gains) – good for our open position. Furthermore, Hurricane Milton, the second strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded over the Gulf of Mexico (after Hurricane Rita in 2005), dissipated – but of course left billions of dollars in damage in its wake. Unfortunately, our CVX position had already reached the SL on Friday – We are tightening the SL of our WTI position.
Investors remain concerned that China's recent rebound could fizzle out completely, as the much-anticipated briefing by the Chinese Ministry of Finance on Saturday did not have the clout that equity investors had hoped for.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 42806.60
TP ✅ @: 42653.60
We see that the Dow Jones fell in the second half of US trading as we expected. We made a pretty crazy trade against the market (and found a good entry after more than 400 points of gains) - however, we secure now with a tight SL as we don't want to be overexposed to the Wall Street's performance and we are still SHORT in the DAX (off-profit).