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🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹
✅ 11.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7429.70)
✅ 11.12 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP-32.077 | TP-31.987, 32.097)
✅ 11.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2719.33)
✅ 11.12 - BA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 167.89)
✅ 11.12 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 111.99 | or clsd 112+)
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
❌*(✴️) 12.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit or closed off-profit | +re-entry / partial close)🔄📸
👉 TP-A ✅ @: 2660.33 (off-profit)| TP-B ✅ @: 2690.24🔄
✅ 12.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7452.40 me| TP-7439.40) 🔄📸
✅ 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.04656)
✅ 12.12 - MCD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 297.96) 🔄
✴️ 12.12 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit / partial close)📸
👉 SL 🔑 @: 30.243 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 31.079 🔄
✅ 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.04668 me | or TP-1.04616, SL - 1.04808) 🔄📸
4/6 - (2 open positions)
🔹 TODAY'S TRADES 🔹
✅ 13.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️(CLSD-1.04989 |open-in profit) 📸
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.04936 (if not closed in profit)
✴️ 13.12 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (open - slightly off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 454.79
✅ 13.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 133.98)
✴️ 13.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (open - break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 69.23
✴️ 13.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (open - just-entered)
✴️ 13.12 - UBER - LONG ↗️ (open - just-entered)
2/6 - (4 or 5 open positions)
We have now seen markets out of balance for almost a full week. There are more and more signs of further headwinds at the end of the year – especially rising yields. The second/third week of December is historically positive – but we are likely to see a prolonged sideways movement with subdued trading activity (especially before the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday evening – US time – which will be important, especially the interest rate outlook).
In this difficult market, we have made very good stock trades in the past few days and found good entry opportunities (with Nvidia and Uber) to take advantage of the ongoing profit-taking before the NYSE closed – at least if the market picks up again next week.
We have reduced our overall positioning – most of you have probably already closed out of gold significantly. We have not managed our gold position well – especially since we made a good re-entry yesterday and could have closed (our re-entry) at a profit. Please remember that you should never lose more than 3-4% of your account balance in a single trade (this also (!) includes re-entries) – be especially careful when trading gold (silver, oil and Bitcoin = commodities).
Have a less chaotic weekend, your Rob ☃️
⚡️LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
EUR/USD
TP ✅ @: 1.04936
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: near 1.04950 - 1.05000
Silver (XAG/USD)🥈
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 30.570 - 30.600 (50% position size)
Rest:
SL 🔑 @: 30.243
TP ✅ @: 31.079
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 (if still LONG)
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 2649 - 2650 (25% position size)
We continue to see a sharp rise in yields, which poses a problem for our precious metal holdings.
Silver has recovered by 1% from its low, indicating a general oversold situation. However, we have seen no other positive impulses for precious metals today, as we have also seen a mixed stock market – including an incredible record close for the Nasdaq 100.
I am closing half of my silver position HERE and also reducing my gold position a little (which has probably already hit the SL for most of you). However, we see gold at the key level of $2,650, where it will probably find buyers (during the Asian session on Monday).
We expect both gold and silver to rebound again next week. If you don't have a position yet, you can buy a small gold position here or on Monday (range 🔼 2,641 - 2,649).
We can either work with a tight TP here (for our EUR/USD position) and close it on Monday or close it NOW.
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⚡️LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 133.98
TP ✅ @: 134.97
We widen our TP a bit for our Nvidia position a bit. We expect a bit of more dip buying before NYSE closing and Nvidia potentially test the $135.00.
Potentially you can also stay LONG with a broader SL & TP. We actually found a very good entry.
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🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
Recommended Entry Range ✅(VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 6️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
► We see oil prices trading significantly higher for another day (currently +1.35%). We now see WTI at 70.55 (spot) // 70.90 (Jan'25) (VIP ONLY) ...
► Oil prices were boosted this week by increased Chinese demand and the prospect of looser monetary policy in China.
► (VIP ONLY) increased Chinese purchases were (VIP ONLY). Crude imports by the world's largest importer, China, are also likely to remain at high levels in early 2025, as (VIP ONLY) ...
► We see a (VIP ONLY). In addition, (VIP ONLY) countries will increase their (VIP ONLY) ...
► Even though we see some (VIP ONLY) in light of ongoing geopolitical instability, we see an attractive price to (VIP ONLY) ...
► We also see rising (VIP ONLY), which also (VIP ONLY) they had risen sharply this week.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 5.5 - 7.0 (550% - 700%) trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - if contract size 10
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.55 - 0.70 (55% - 70%) trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - if contract size 100
🗣️ Tip: The Jan 25'-Futures Contract is currently $0.30 above the spot price
You can see the contract size of your broker when you right click on the asset and click on "specification" (MetaTrader).
position code / 100% transparency - 24121304A
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 6️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
———-
Since November 1, 2024, we have made 10 oil trades. Of these 10 trades, we have won 10 = 100% 🏆 success rate.
DON'T MISS OUT 🛢💵
DON'T MISS OUT 🛢💵
DON'T MISS OUT 🛢💵
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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY AFTER NYSE OPENED 🔼 Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 3️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅447.25 - 448.50
The Nasdaq 100 has reached new highs in pre-market trading after chip stocks rose sharply - particularly Broadcom, which gained around 19% (!) after the company forecast unexpectedly high revenue for the current quarter and cited increased demand for chips due to growing interest in AI.
🔹 The Dow Jones (+0.1%) opens another day little changed, with the weakness of a major component UnitedHealth persisting. However, we see gains in financials (including Goldman Sachs, the most heavily weighted stock in the Dow Jones) and in cyclical and technical stocks (Salesforce up 1.7%). We are maintaining our price target for the time being. We expect the Dow Jones to perform modestly today.
🔹 McDonalds (-0.2%) opens slightly weaker after a solid performance yesterday. Our position is close to breakeven. We are raising our TP to: ✅ @: 297.43. McDonald's should benefit from some inflows into more defensive stocks in the second half of US trading.
🔹 Wells Fargo (+0.2%) opens little changed after recent losses. We are tightening our TP: ✅ @: 73.63. We see gains for financial stocks in pre-market trading.
► We don't want to overtrade the market, but I see some good buying opportunities - with some chip stocks that have the potential to recover significantly (like AMD), but also other stocks that have been sold across the board (in the tech/growth area) and could recover - including UBER, which has exceptionally strong metrics and is showing strong growth and improving profitability. Many investors also underestimate UBER's competitive advantage as they price in the risks from robotaxis etc.
► Broadcom's mega-gains on the back of very strong demand for AI are driving Wall Street higher today. Broadcom is up almost 20% (!) in pre-market, and other chip stocks are also up - including Nvidia, which is likely to test the $140 mark again after some profit-taking.
► We are turning to ... Microsoft, which saw some profit taking yesterday and is a leader in the adoption of AI features – it sees massive growth in its Azure service. Microsoft opens flat at / slightly negative (at 449.00) and could retest yesterday's highs. We try to find an entry just below the opening price (at around 448.00).
► Microsoft is the leader in AI and cloud computing. 33% growth in Azure and very strong strategic partnerships, particularly with OpenAI, ensure strong adoption of (Microsoft) AI services and further revenue growth. Microsoft's enterprise AI tools such as Microsoft 365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot are being rapidly adopted and will help Microsoft maintain/expand its already high market share.
► Financially, Microsoft has been able to gradually improve its operating margin (currently around 46.5%) despite massive investments in AI infrastructure. I expect Microsoft to be able to further improve its financial key figures in 2025. Microsoft is and remains one of the absolute AI winners.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 110 - 120 (11,000% - 12,000%) trading Microsoft (MSFT)
position code / 100% transparency - 24121202A
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 3️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/USD
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry ✅near 1.05200
► We also closed yesterday's second EUR/USD excellently overnight (📸) and in early Asian trading, and the pair rose again above 1.05000, although expectations of a Fed rate cut were scaled back slightly to ~96.5% (from around 98% yesterday).
► The recent slowing of the pace of disinflation in the US – especially yesterday when the PPI came in a bit warmer – and the still very strong labor market with the unemployment rate lower than the Fed projected in September, as well as the continued strength of Wall Street, make it very likely that the Fed will position itself more hawkishly next week.
► Yesterday saw some rate cuts in Europe (SNB by as much as 50 basis points and the ECB). The ECB's general statement was not very dovish, but the tone has moved further and further away from a hawkish stance. The governors of the central banks of the Eurozone (such as France, Latvia, Estonia and others before yesterday) also favor further and rapid interest rate cuts in the future.
► The ECB also acknowledges that capital spending and growth are weak and that the outlook for the Eurozone economy is very uncertain, all of which argues for further easing. Lagarde also hinted that a handful of ECB officials advocated an above-average 50 basis point rate cut.
► We go here SHORT again – for the third time at a similar level - more than 60 pips above the lows at the European open.
position code / 100% transparency - 24121301A
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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———
⚠️ DON'T MISS OUT ⚠️
✅ 14.11 - GBP/CAD - LONG ↗️
✅ 14.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 15.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 18.11 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 18.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 19.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 20.11 - GBP/CHF - LONG ↗️
✅ 22.11 - EUR/CHF - SHORT ↘️
✅ 27.11 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 28.11 - EUR/CAD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 03.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
❌ 04.12 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 06.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ 📸
14/15 = 93.3% Success Rate
✴️ 13.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
We likely have the highest success rate in short-term FX trading over the past 30 days.
⚠️ DON'T MISS OUT ⚠️
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, December 13
❗️ Stocks mixed after disappointing China economic meetings; Tech stock lead Wall Street higher
► European stock market futures (DAX, CAC, FTSE 100) are trading slightly higher after a rather subdues opening following losses in Asia. Sentiment was weighed down by China’s Central Economic Work Conference, which disappointed traders by offering vague policy promises instead of concrete fiscal stimulus measures. Key sectors struggled, with political turmoil in France and Germany adding to investor caution. The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in October, its second consecutive monthly decline, dragging the pound lower. Despite Germany’s trade surplus of €13.4B and France’s inflation aligning with expectations at 1.3% in November, broader European equities remain mostly in sideways movement, reflecting concerns about stagnant growth and mounting geopolitical uncertainties.
► US markets showed mixed signals as investors digested Thursday’s economic data. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% in Friday's pre-market trading, buoyed by Broadcom’s (!) 14.5% after-hours surge following strong results. Broadcom's strong gains also boosted other chip stocks. However, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% in Thursday’s session, with nine consecutive days of more decliners than advancers, raising questions about the sustainability of the year’s 27% rally. Treasury yields edged lower, while the swaps market indicated a 95% confidence level for a December rate cut. Producer price data was mixed, with wholesale inflation rising in November, driven by egg prices, while jobless claims unexpectedly climbed, highlighting lingering economic uncertainties.
► Asian markets traded broadly lower, with China’s SHCOMP falling over 2% and Hong Kong’s HSI losing 2%. The market reacted negatively to China’s lack of detailed stimulus measures from its Central Economic Work Conference, despite promises of fiscal expansion and monetary easing. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.2%, with the JPY weakening to a two-week low as speculation grew that the Bank of Japan might pause rate hikes. Industrial production in Japan rose by 2.8% MoM in October but missed preliminary estimates.
► Oil prices continued their upward trajectory, with WTI crude trading above $70/barrel, supported by expectations of tighter US sanctions against Iran and Russia. Gold traded a bit lower at $2,675/oz as investors await the high likelihood of a US rate cut next week. Bitcoin continues to hover around the $100K mark, maintaining its strong performance as crypto markets gained from hopes of relaxed regulatory frameworks and dovish central bank policies.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇬🇧 GfK Consumer Confidence - 00:01 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇩🇪 Balance of Trade - 07:00 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇬🇧 GDP - 07:00 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇬🇧 Industrial Production - 07:00 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production - 07:00 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇫🇷 Inflation Rate / CPI - 07:45 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇪🇸 Inflation Rate / CPI - 08:00 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇪🇺 Industrial Production - 10:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports today
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
⏱️ News are DELAYED ⚠️ by: 7️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹
🗓 October 31 - December 12
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)
*Nov 28 & 29 (Thanksgiving) = 1 trading day
——————————————————————-
📊 5 - Week -Performance: 31.10 - 05.12
(= 25 "full" trading days)
Number of Trades/Signals: 127 (+1 open positions: WFC)
Number of Trades Won: 113
Overall REAL Success Rate = 89% 🔼
Dropped from statistics: 5/6 - 83.3% Success Rate (Nov. 30)
Added to statistics: 5/5 - 100% 🏆 Success Rate (Dec. 05)
——————————————————————
🆕 The last 5 trading days:
✅ 06.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.05773)
✅ 06.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2641.23)
✴️ 06.12 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 44494.70 🔄
✅ 06.12 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 31.417 | or TP 31.397)
3/4 - (1 open position)
✅ 09.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 21640.70)
✅ 09.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 138.87)
✅ 09.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 67.56)
✅ 09.12 - COIN - LONG ↗️ (TP - 317.97| or TP-318.23+)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
No update on these positions. Our Dow Jones position is already down a little more than 2% (off-profit) – we will close at the next spike, but generally see a sideways-trending market with reduced trading volume overall. We won't see any strong gains tomorrow, and next week the markets will remain cautiously optimistic, but will not make any major moves before the Fed's interest rate decision – although there is little scope for a negative surprise.
⚡️LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 111.73
TP ✅ @: 112.37
We can give our XOM position a little more room to move up. Exxon is trading at a steep discount and the energy sector should benefit from the current sideways movement/rotation out of the tech sector.
However, we are moving our SL into profit.
If you have already closed with a profit, we/you can find a better re-entry point – so all is well!
⏱️ Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 6️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Boeing (BA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 166.97
TP ✅ @: 168.19
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 167.80 - 168.30
Our Boing position did not trigger TP early after NYSE opening with Boeing first seeing slight profit taking. We continue to see Boeing bullish but secure here with signs of slight (temporary) resistance at/above $168.
We work with a tight TP / SL and secure big profits. You can also close - as we anyways see ongoing mixed markets allowing us to find a better re-entry.
———
BOEING 1️⃣6️⃣5️⃣✈️1️⃣6️⃣8️⃣
Winnings certainly enough for a trip somewhere sunny ☀️
Please don't forget that many people work long hours/days/weeks for the profits that we generate every day – often in just a few hours – share if (possible) with people in need ❤️
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BUY NOW 🔼 Silver (XAG/USD)🥈
⚠️ volatile; 2/3 trade size as we are LONG in gold too
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry ✅30.945 - 31.005 (= close to $31/oz)
► We are LONG in gold, with gold currently trading around the $2,680 mark after today's US PPI report showed a different picture from yesterday's in-line consumer price index. The market is again sensitive to data that could slow further interest rate cuts.
► Producer prices tend to lead consumer prices, meaning that rising inflation at the producer level will impact consumer prices with a certain lag. However, I don't see any worrying signs of a strong reacceleration of inflation here - the Fed will be more cautious, but in any case it is time for them to wait and see how the recent rate cuts affect economic activity, the labor market and inflation. It takes a while for interest rate changes to feed through to the real economy.
► The stock markets are also moving in narrow ranges again. The tech sector is not outperforming today - in part because rising yields are putting pressure on equities (almost every day).
► The Asian session was solid overall today. Markets in Europe are almost unchanged.
► We are buying the 3% (!) fall in silver here. Although we want to separate gold and silver here – they have a high correlation – so we are trading silver a little smaller than usual.
► We are finding a much lower entry price than yesterday (after the CPI data and before the rise). Silver offers an attractive entry at the key level of $31/oz.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 12.0 - 15 (1,200% - 1,500%) trading Silver (XAG/USD) - if contract size 100 / 2/3 trade size
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 1.20 - 1.5 (120% - 150%) trading Silver (XAG/USD) - if contract size 1000 / 2/3 trade size
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.25 - 0.40 (25% - 30%) trading Silver (XAG/USD) - if contract size 5000 / 2/3 trade size
You can see the contract size of your broker when you right click on the asset and click on "specification" (MetaTrader).
position code / 100% transparency - 24121205A
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
———
🥈📉3️⃣0️⃣.9️⃣5️⃣📈
We take advantage of the 3️⃣➗ dip in silver.
Trading with SmartTrader is incredible easy:
1️⃣ Get trade recommendation 📲
2️⃣ Place your trade 💻
3️⃣ Receive position update 📲
4️⃣ Congratulations 💰
WRITE US NOW 📨 - JOIN SMARTTRADER VIP
🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY WHEN NYSE OPEN 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 3️⃣7️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅(VIP ONLY)
🔹 The Dow Jones (-0.1%) opens almost unchanged after yesterday's strong underperformance (due to UnitedHealth). UNH is widening its losses, but we see that the Dow is benefiting from yesterday's isolated gains (Big Tech) and spreading to the broader market - including industrials and more defensive sectors. Boeing continues to outperform strongly and is trading 1.6% higher in pre-market trading.
🔹 Boeing (+1.7%) is the top performer in the Dow Jones and among the top 5 in the S&P 500. Boeing is opening near our TP (168.97) and could trigger it.
🔹 ExxonMobil (0.0%) opens flat despite recent strong gains in oil and gas prices. We see natural gas prices continuing to rise today - now up more than 10% this week alone. Oil prices are down slightly. We raise our price target a bit ✅ @: 112.47. XOM remains oversold. RBC Capital maintained its Sector Perform rating on XOM with a target price of $115.00.
🔹 Wells Fargo (0.0%) opens virtually unchanged. We are seeing slight losses in financials, but expect stabilization on Wall Street and inflows from the tech/growth area.
► In contrast to yesterday's CPI report, today's PPI report was a bit warmer and is currently weighing on market sentiment. However, we expect this to be short-lived, as the Fed's rate cut expectations for December have also changed little (still almost 98%).
► Heavy losses at Adobe (-11%) - after weak guidance - also weigh on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. I see Adobe as a potential loser of AI innovation - especially given the rather disappointing adoption of AI features in Adobe's products so far.
► We also see chip stocks down - ahead of Broadcom's earnings report.
► We buy yesterday's price decline of (VIP ONLY) and expect more defensive stocks to perform better today. We are already seeing a rotation out of yesterday's mega-winners (tech, growth and big tech - although I don't think this profit-taking will last). (VIP ONLY) today gives (VIP ONLY) an (VIP ONLY). Other defensive stocks - particularly soft drink makers, which Deutsche Bank recommends as a “BUY” - are rising sharply in pre-market trading (including Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Keurig Dr Pepper) - also a tailwind (VIP ONLY) ...
► (VIP ONLY) opens almost unchanged at ~(VIP ONLY)
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ....
position code / 100% transparency - 24121204A
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 3️⃣7️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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This is a strong NYSE opening trade.
⚠️ DON'T MISS OUT ⚠️
⚠️ DON'T MISS OUT ⚠️
⚠️ DON'T MISS OUT ⚠️
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BUY NOW 🔼 CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅7415 - 7425
► The DAX was already near to its all-time high (ATH) again today, peaking at 20470 – just 30 points away from the all-time high it reached on Monday.
► The 25 basis point rate cut is fully expected – there is no chance that the ECB will not cut rates in a few minutes – so the tailwind will be limited – but it is still a signal for further easing. As always, investors will pay close attention to the subsequent press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde, from whom they hope to gain further insights into future monetary policy – even if Lagarde is unlikely to announce further rate cuts, she will avoid sounding hawkish.
► European equities should continue to benefit from falling borrowing costs, the currently weak EUR and the prospect of further easing. The French equity market - which is China-sensitive (especially the luxury sector) - should also be supported by today's solid performance of equities in Asia/China and optimism about Chinese economic stimulus measures.
► We are in the two weeks before Christmas in a very bullish seasonality. The CAC is still heavily oversold and is performing significantly worse than other indices, such as the DAX.
► We find an entry below our yesterday triggered SL and expect the CAC to continue to rise in the coming days. We can buy now or at slightly increased volatility directly after the ECB interest rate cut decision - it doesn't matter too much as we expect not insignificant gains for the CAC.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 9 - 11 (900% - 1,100%) trading the CAC 40 (FRA_40).
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❗️ European Central Bank cuts interest rates by a 25 basis points
The European Central Bank announced its fourth interest rate cut this year, confirming expectations of a quarter of a percentage point cut (= 25 basis points).
The deposit facility, the ECB's key interest rate, will thus be cut to 3% (from 3.25%).
The cut was widely expected as Eurozone inflation has already reached the ECB's target and the Eurozone economy and business activity remain weak.
Although the cut was widely expected, it is a signal of further easing and lowers borrowing costs – positive for companies.
We see slight gains in Eurozone equities, the EUR is little changed (but fell a bit further) - gold benefits from further easing of monetary policy.
The focus is now on the ECB press conference (13:45 UTC+0) and the US PPI (13:30 UTC+0).
⏱️ News are DELAYED ⚠️ by: 4️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹
✅ 9.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 21640.70) 🔄📸
✅ 9.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 138.87)
✅ 9.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 67.56)
✅ 9.12 - COIN - LONG ↗️ (TP - 317.97| or TP-318.23+) 🔄📸
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
❌(✅) 10.12 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2684.56 | SL - 2703.11 overall in-profit ; +Re-entry) 🔄📸
✅ 10.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 140.23)
✅ 10.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 68.26) 🔄📸
✅ 10.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 137.97 me| TP-138.97 )🔄📸
❌ 10.12 - GOOGL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 192.13 me | 192.43)🔄📸
3/5 = 60% Success Rate
*considered LOSS as some members closed in SL overnight
🔹 TODAY'S TRADES 🔹
✅ 11.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7429.70) 📸
✅ 11.12 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP-32.077 | TP-31.987, 32.097) 📸
✅ 11.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2719.33) 📸
✴️ 11.12 - BA - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 168.97
✴️ 11.12 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 112.97
3/5 - (2 open positions)
Sorry for the delay - it was a really looong day and I quickly ate something before updating all this...
We actually traded this completely out-of-balance market very well (and forecast it even better), but we could have traded some situations much better and also made two unnecessary trades (with Alphabet and yesterday's short-term gold SHORT against the market). Today, we made massive profits with two perfect precious metal trades (silver + gold), which at least made up for it. The silver trade was particularly extraordinary 🎆
We don't do cosmetics on our trades or try to inflate our success rate - we never close for micro profits (“SL in the money” or with mini profits ala “TP1, TP2” etc.) - our goal is NOT to maximize our success rate, but to maximize ROI. 💯% transparency at all times - that's our philosophy. We are the ONLY ones.
We could have made more profit with the Nasdaq (which rose by more than another 170 points after our TP) – I didn't expect the profits to be so isolated in the (big) tech sector.
I closed the Alphabet position minimally less badly (but still terribly) and the Nvidia position much worse than it was (it at 138.97 // I already at 137.97 because I didn't update properly - yes, that happens to me too - the situation was quite chaotic). Most of you also closed our COIN position better than I did - Coinbase rose by ~6% at one point today - more was possible for us here.
Overall, however, we kept a cool head and had a very good understanding of the very sentiment-driven market that has not yet found its pricing / balance itself. Congratulations!
🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹
🗓 November 1 - December 13
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)
*Nov 28 & 29 (Thanksgiving) = 1 trading day
——————————————————————-
📊 5 - Week -Performance: 01.11 - 06.12
(= 25 "full" trading days)
Number of Trades/Signals: 127 (incl. 2 open positions: WFC & US30)
Number of Trades Won: 111
Overall REAL Success Rate = 87.4% 🔽
Dropped from statistics: 5/5 - 100% 🏆 Success Rate (Oct. 31)
Added to statistics: 3/4* - 75% Success Rate (Dec. 06)
(*1 open position: US30 - with TP off-profit)
——————————————————————
🆕 The last 5 trading days:
✅ 09.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 21640.70)
✅ 09.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 138.87)
✅ 09.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 67.56)
✅ 09.12 - COIN - LONG ↗️ (TP - 317.97| or TP-318.23+)
4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
❌*(✅) 10.12 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2684.56 | SL - 2703.11 overall in-profit ; +Re-entry)
✅ 10.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 140.23)
✅ 10.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 68.26)
✅ 10.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 137.97 me| TP-138.97 )
❌ 10.12 - GOOGL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 192.13 me | 192.43)
3/5 = 60% Success Rate
*considered LOSS as some members closed in SL overnight
This overview looks a bit better than the actual week was – because although we also made many good trades and found solid entries in an overall sideways / sentiment-driven market – we encountered strong profit-taking and are significantly out of the money (or significantly closed out of the money) with some positions.
The market became even more unbalanced after the rather positive CPI data was negated by the warm PPI data. As a result, yields, which were already rising sharply over the past weeks, rose even further - especially in yesterday's and today's sessions and are now moving towards the key level of 4.5% (for the US 10-year) where the market in general could become a little more nervous.
The success rate fell to still very strong 87.4% (in our five-week-period) as we counted our both open position as loss now (TP is off-profit).
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BUY NOW 🔼 Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
⚠️ Volatile; 1/2 trade size
Recommended entry ✅ near 133.75
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BUY NOW 🔼 Uber Technologies (UBER) 🇺🇸
⚠️ Volatile; 1/2 trade size
Recommended entry range ✅ 59.75 - 59.90
► We are taking advantage of additional Friday evening sales to buy Nvidia and Uber at a discount.
► Broadcom's mega-rally (+25%) has attracted all the attention in the chip sector / AI industry today and actually left little else - in an already very mixed, actually cautious market. Despite the very good prospects for server chips and AI enabling, all other major chip stocks and even other AI-related stocks were unable to really benefit - with a few exceptions such as Micron, which is not considered a competitor to Broadcom but is also a major beneficiary of the massive growth in the AI industry (and plays the “memory role” in AI).
► We see Nvidia down 2.5% and expect that Nvidia, given strong earnings of its own and the overall completely intact AI growth story - in which Nvidia continues to play the main role (also as a key innovator) - can attract some buyers at the current price. We maintain our LONG position in Microsoft, which is almost unchanged before the NYSE close.
► We are also buying a small position in UBER, which has fallen further and is now trading under $60 - which I consider to be a very good price for a medium to long-term holding. Goldman Sachs named Uber as its "top pick" for 2025 - if you look at the key figures and how they improved, particularly in 2024, I would fully agree. I don't see why Uber's strong growth story and massive improvement in profitability should not continue into 2025.
► Ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision next week, it was another rather strange day/week for equities, with the sharp rise in yields in particular weighing heavily on sentiment (another near 8 bps higher for the US 10-Y today).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 170 - 190 (17,000% - 19,000%) when trading Nvidia (NVDA) - 1/2 trade size.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~400 - 450 (40,000% - 45,000%) when trading Uber (UBER) - 1/2 trade size.
position code / 100% transparency - 24121305A (NVDA)
position code / 100% transparency - 24121306A (UBER)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 1️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 133.89
TP ✅ @: 134.79
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP-A ✅ @: 2660.33 (off-profit)
TP-B ✅ @: 2690.24
-> close 50% - 60% of your position at TP-A.
Silver (XAG/USD)🥈
SL 🔑 @: 30.347
TP ✅ @: 31.077
EUR/USD
TP ✅ @: 1.04767
As we expected, we are seeing another day in which the markets are searching for direction - with Broadcom's very strong forecast driving Wall Street higher (but with overall very mixed sector performance).
It's hard to find trades & entries in this market - but we found solid entries into Microsoft and especially Nvidia and are holding our WTI trade.
We are too deeply positioned in gold/silver, with gold also experiencing some extended profit taking today, after it had even reached a five-week high in overnight trading just yesterday.
We are now updating our positions. We are working with a tight TP for Nvidia as we generally want to reduce our exposure. We are setting a tight in-profit SL. For now, we remain LONG in Microsoft.
Your gold position has probably already been closed in the wake of the current strong profit-taking. If you are still in, you should reduce your position/exposure and close (or a part of your position) at the next rise. Gold is likely to see some support in the last two hours of trading this week. We currently see support in the range $2,651 - $2,655 - but could also test the $2,650 again. Gold remains bullish in the medium term.
We close 50% (or more) of our position at the next spike at $2,660. We can hold our smaller silver position - but we set an SL and a narrower TP.
We have again found an almost perfect entry point in EUR/USD and see some further downside pressure for the pair (or USD buying) towards the end of regular US trading.
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BUY NOW 🔼 Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
⚠️ Volatile; 2/3 trade size
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 8️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended entry ✅ near 133.20
► After a very strong pre-market performance in New York, we are seeing some profit taking. Broadcom is still up about 19-20% and is benefiting from a massive rotation from other tech stocks as well.
► The Nasdaq saw some profit taking after making a new ATH for the second time this week. We could buy the current mini-dip in the Nasdaq, but I prefer (although even more volatile) to buy the much stronger dip of Nvidia.
► Chip stocks initially benefited from Broadcom's very good earnings forecast, which once again shows that the AI growth story remains fully intact.
► We now see that Nvidia fell far from the day's high shortly after the NYSE opened (at around 139.60) – Nvidia is about 2.8% lower for today (at 133.50) / or about 4% from today's highs.
► In view of the volatility and the fact that we do not want to be too heavily positioned in this sideways trending market (on a Friday), we are trading Nvidia a little smaller here.
► We now see Nvidia below this week's lows, even below 133.70. We expect support to rise at this level (range 132.50 - 133.50) and therefore go here LONG.
► Nvidia has received a positive rating from an analyst (as it does almost every day) - today Mizuho with “Outperform”.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 210 - 230 (21,000% - 23,000%) when trading Nvidia (NVDA) - 2/3 trade size.
EDIT: position code / 100% transparency - 24121303A
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⚡️LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
McDonald's (MCD) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 297.96
A good NYSE opening for us. We also found the perfect entry point for Microsoft.
We are giving McDonald's a little more room to move upwards.
PS: MCD may already have ended up in your TP – if it has – “we” are happy with that.
⏱️ Update ist DELAYED ⚠️ by: 8️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️RAPID UPDATE 🕯
CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷
SL 🔑 @: 7452.40
TP ✅ @: 7463.90 (or already triggered ~7439.40)
Sorry for the delayed update - I had a meeting with my accountant. It's quite complicated as I will be moving out of Germany in 2024.
I have added 30 points to my TP for my/our CAC position - but I want to close it soon. Your position could have been closed earlier ~7439.40 (in profit) or slightly higher as the CAC has seen a solid rebound in the last ~4 hours. The Dow Jones has indeed found support at 44K and is currently trading ~0.2% (or about 100 points) higher. We remain LONG.
Our gold position has slipped a little further out of the money, but gold is likely to see slight gains again today before the NYSE closing, under pressure from further price gains. Gold has had a turbulent week but is still up for the week – yesterday's profit-taking went a bit further, however. Silver is still close to the key mark of $31/oz – we may reduce our exposure in precious metals soon.
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🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹
❌*(✅) 10.12 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2684.56 | SL - 2703.11 overall in-profit ; +Re-entry)
✅ 10.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 140.23)
✅ 10.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 68.26)
✅ 10.12 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 137.97 me| TP-138.97 )
❌ 10.12 - GOOGL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 192.13 me | 192.43)
3/5 = 60% Success Rate
*considered LOSS as some members closed in SL overnight
✅ 11.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7429.70)
✅ 11.12 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP-32.077 | TP-31.987, 32.097)
✅ 11.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2719.33)
✅ 11.12 - BA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 167.89) 🔄📸
✅ 11.12 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 111.99 | or clsd 112+) 🔄📸
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
🔹 TODAY'S TRADES 🔹
✴️ 12.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry)
👉 TP ✅ @: 2703.93 🔄
✴️ 12.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 7439.40 🔄
✅ 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.04656) 📸
✴️ 12.12 - MCD - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 297.97
✴️ 12.12 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 31.267 🔄
✅(✴️) 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - SL in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 1.04808|TP ✅ @: 1.04616 or CLOSE ✅ @: 1.04650🔄
A very difficult market to trade, characterized by sideways movement and low trading activity overall. Investors are looking for direction. We see a market that is also searching for equilibrium, or rather, seeking its own pricing. The further rise in yields could become a problem, as could the fact that some markets (including Wall Street, DAX, ASX, Nikkei, etc.) are trading near all-time highs after strong performance in 2024, making profit-taking generally more attractive.
We closed yesterday with a 100% 🏆 success rate with very difficult trades (Boeing 📸 - big profit / Exxon 📸 - great entry against the market). Congratulations! 👏
Our gold position(s) are not quite ideal – but the growing uncertainty is generally supportive for gold – although rising yields are also a problem for gold. We made two wonderful EUR/USD trades today. You can also close our second EUR/USD now (deep in profit).
We are tightening the TP of our gold and silver position (not too tight). We are also tightening our CAC TP a bit - which was already relatively deep in profit today - we probably should have closed it when our position was more than 25 points in profit.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 111.99
TP ✅ @: 112.44
EUR/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.04808
TP ✅ @: 1.04616
We set a tighter SL for XOM position. I actually like our position - but we also see how bearish Exxon has been over the past 3-4 weeks. We found an exceptional entry.
Our second EUR/USD position from today is also deep in profit. We found a great entry (again) and set an in-profit SL while keeping the TP.
However, we are moving our SL into profit.
If you have already closed with a profit, we/you can find a better re-entry point – so all is well!
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⚡️RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Boeing (BA) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 167.75 - 168.05
OR
TP ✅ @: 167.89
ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 111.95 - 112.19
OR
TP ✅ @: 112.07
McDonald's (MCD) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 297.97
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 44494.70 (off-profit)
We are quite deeply invested and want to reduce our exposure a bit in this sideways market.
I like our two positions (and entries) in Boeing and Exxon - but we are bringing both home soon / now.
McDonald's remains a good LONG position - we can stay LONG. WFC remains a disappointment and is starting to lose. We expect little upside for the rest of the week before profits can be expected again next week (although with reduced trading activity ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision).
We also see the Dow Jones starting to slide gradually down. From here, we still see upside potential for the rest of the year – but our position is deeply in the red. We see the Dow Jones now oscillating around the 44K mark. We remain LONG for the time being – but are tightening our TP.
⏱️ Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 8️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/USD
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅1.05060 - 1.05140
► We made an almost perfect EUR/USD trade earlier today, which triggered our TP ✅ (1.04656) and then rose again - now back at or above 1.05000.
► Going SHORT here again, we see that the pair is still bearish as the ECB's interest rate outlook is more dovish than the Fed's. Furthermore, the ECB still sees economic growth as “tilted to the downside,” meaning the ECB is aware that the Eurozone economy could use some monetary support - e.g. through lower borrowing costs / less of a burden from continued higher interest rates.
► The ECB is also confident that the disinflation process is “well on track,” - although I would see here that disinflation is also “supported” by weak economic growth, a poor economic outlook and weak investments.
► Lagarde also said that a 50 basis point rate cut was discussed. Even though Lagarde has been rather cautious and dovish, the prospects for further rate cuts are fully intact.
► We go SHORT again and see the USD being supported by further rising US Treasury yields and the expectation that the Fed will position itself somewhat more hawkishly next week.
► We are seeing lower lows and are setting our TP slightly below our previous TP (which was almost perfect).
position code / 100% transparency - 24121206A
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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———
If you missed the first EUR/USD - don't miss this one 😖
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🔰 VIP SIGNAL / UPDATE 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: 2709.77
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry ✅near 2678.50 - 2682.00
► It makes sense to improve our average entry price (or re-enter) of gold here near $2,680 - where we expect support.
► Gold saw some selling after the PPI report coming in hotter-than-expectations and reignited investors' inflation concerns ahead of next week's Fed rate decision.
► In general, there was some slight profit-taking ahead of the PPI figures after yesterday's strong gains, which were also boosted by the stronger USD and further rising yields.
► I don't think the PPI report will have much impact on the Fed's inflation outlook or on Powell's statement regarding the inflation outlook. We also don't see a major impact on rate cut expectations. We are also tightening our TP a bit (close to/slightly above our initial entry).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.40 - 0.50 (40% - 50%) when trading gold (XAU/USD) - Please always be careful trading gold and limit losses to a max of 2-4% of your account balance per trade.
position code / 100% transparency - 24121201B
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 5️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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🥇📉2️⃣6️⃣8️⃣1️⃣📈
Gold has found support in the area we expected.
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⚡️ LIVE TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ EUR/USD
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP CHANNEL ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅(VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 6️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
► The EUR initially fell a little further (after the ECB's interest rate cut decision)(VIP ONLY) ...
► We are (VIP ONLY) the pair here - also because the US PPI (VIP ONLY). The producer price index, which measures what producers receive for their products at the final demand stage, rose by 0.4% in the previous month, above the 0.2% estimate. However, the core PPI (MoM) showed only a very small increase overall (VIP ONLY) ...
► A glance at the ECB statement shows that the ECB has removed the “restrictive policy” part from its statement, indicating (VIP ONLY) ...
► The ECB is also lowering (VIP ONLY) - which I would agree with - but rather is due to weak economic activity and declining consumption.
► We expect Lagarde not to send a (VIP ONLY) ...
position code / 100% transparency - 24121203A
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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
Recommended Entry ✅near 2705 (update)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 6️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
► Gold has fallen slightly (-0.25%), but only due to profit taking after the strong rally of recent days. The resumption of gold purchases by China, the easing of Chinese monetary policy and planned devaluation of the CNY, the inflation data, which do not give the impression that inflation is getting out of control, and the global interest rate changes by central banks, which are expressing themselves in a more dovish tone, have caused the price of gold to continue to rise this week – and remain as a tailwind.
► Gold remains bullish even though yields continue to rise and approach the key level of 4.5% (for the 10-year US yield).
► According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 98.6% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points on December 18, compared with an 86% probability before the US consumer price index report. The ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points later today. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a big 50 basis point rate cut today, taking the rate to 0.5% (from 1%).
► The focus will also be on today's US PPI and further insights into the Fed's 2025 policy. We can find an entry point at around $10/oz below our TP, which was almost perfectly triggered yesterday. Gold tested the $2,720 - $2,725 range as expected. We are working with a TP at the upper end of this range.
► We expect gold to find support near $2,700 and benefit from today's rate cuts (such as the ECB).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.40 - 0.50 (40% - 50%) when trading gold (XAU/USD) - Please always be careful trading gold and limit losses to a max of 2-4% of your account balance per trade.
position code / 100% transparency - 24121201A
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Thursday, December 12
❗️ European stocks steady ahead of ECB interest rate decision & after 50 bp SNB cut; US-CN trade talks lift sentiment
► European markets opened steady with the Stoxx Europe 600 trading cautiously ahead of the ECB rate decision (13:15 UTC+0). Nevertheless, China-related sectors such as luxury goods and mining stocks rose on the back of improving US-China relations and the upcoming talks between senior US and Chinese officials. US President-elect Donald Trump has also reportedly invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration in January. The offshore CNY strengthened. The ECB is expected to cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points, with the tone of the communication after the decision being crucial. SmartTrader Chief Analyst Robert Lindner expects a rather dovish outlook, with the ECB pointing to further monetary easing in 2025. The Swiss National Bank cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, while more than 85% of analysts had expected a smaller 25 basis point cut.
► Wall Street slipped slightly: the Nasdaq fell 0.2% and the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, after a record rally on Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% and approached its all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.7%, which also caused the Nasdaq Composite Index to reach the 20,000-point mark for the first time. The November inflation report came in as expected, easing concerns about runaway inflation and raising the likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week to almost 100%. Treasury yields rose slightly, reflecting expectations of a more dovish monetary policy. Traders remain focused on inflation data and corporate earnings, and expect a year-end rally when monetary policy eases and sentiment improves. Two large-cap companies, Broadcom and Costco, report today (after US market close).
► Asian markets were mostly positive as investors weighed regional developments against broader global trends. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.27%, crossing the 40k mark for the first time in months, supported by the good mood on Wall Street. China's SHCOMP rose 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component rose 1%, on optimism over possible stimulus measures presented at the central economic work conference. The Asian Development Bank's decision to maintain GDP growth forecasts for China provided additional support for the region. Meanwhile, Australia's unemployment rate fell to an 8-month low of 3.9%, causing the AUD to rise and reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in February.
► In commodities, oil prices edged up, with WTI crude holding above $70/barrel after yesterday's sharp rally as traders assessed geopolitical risks and possible sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Gold traded near $2,715/oz after hitting resistance at $2,720/oz yesterday, supported by dovish monetary policy signals from central banks. The outlook for silver remains bright, rising more than 1%, driven by improved risk sentiment and expectations of rising industrial demand for China's potential stimulus measures.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇨🇭 SNB Interest Rate Decision - 08:30 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate - 00:30 (released: 🟢)
♦️ 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision - 13:15
🔸 🇺🇸 PPI - 13:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 13:30
🔸 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference - 13:45
🔸 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speech - 15:15
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
🌙 Broadcom (AVGO) 🇺🇸 ❗️
🌙 Costco (COST) 🇺🇸
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
⏱️ News are DELAYED ⚠️ by: 1️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹
🗓 October 30 - December 11
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)
*Nov 28 & 29 (Thanksgiving) = 1 trading day
——————————————————————-
📊 5 - Week -Performance: 30.10 - 04.12
(= 25 "full" trading days)
Number of Trades/Signals: 129 (+1 open positions: WFC)
Number of Trades Won: 114
Overall REAL Success Rate = 88.4%
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🆕 The last 5 trading days:
✅ 5.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 68.41)
✅ 5.12 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL-21515.30|TP-21476.10, 21418.60)
✅* 5.12 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 21418.60) - Re-Entry*
✅ 5.12 -BTC/USD -LONG ↗️ (TP - 99918.70 me | 99898.90 or 100478.70+)
3/3 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate (or 4/4 incl. re-entry position)
✅ 6.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.05773)
✅ 6.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2641.23)
✴️ 6.12 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 44959.70
✅ 6.12 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 31.417 | or TP 31.397)
3/4 - (1 open position)
A very unfortunate closing of our GBP/USD position, which missed the TP by less than 1 pip (!) – then the pair recovered (also thanks to a very robust GBP) and benefited from the surprise-free CPI – actually as we expected. We should have closed the GBP/USD earlier – break-even or even slightly in the red.
The CPI data came as expected by analysts but very obviously better than the real expectations (shadow expectations) and the market reacted as we expected - with relief. We also correctly identified the sentiment in the market and the general nervousness in the run-up to the CPI data - but unfortunately did not act ideally.
Overall, we traded well today, but we could have trusted our own analysis a little more and did not manage our open positions ideally. I didn't expect the market to be so concerned about the CPI data – but it is, as the market currently can't price itself, can't find equilibrium given the recent heavy influences from so many directions – including the geopolitical changes and massive impact on markets and expectations with the coming inauguration of Trump (in January). Added to this is seasonality and a somewhat early Santa rally/year-end rally (which was pulled forward well into November).