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SELL WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔜 Adobe (ADBE) 🇺🇞

We are only SHORT in Tesla (individual US stocks) but expect cautious trading overall with some profit taking. However, strong US GDP data shows that the US economy remains strong and in rapid growth - while this does not support rate cut expectations, it does increase expectations of no landing (i.e. no coming recession in the US - I agree with this anyway).


🔹 Tesla (-1.4%) is the "big" loser in the Nasdaq 100 and opens significantly lower today. The release of an electric car from Xiaomi, which is $4k cheaper than Tesla's Model 3, further fuels the price war in the electric car sector - bad news for Tesla. We set a TP ✅ @: 175.11. Goldman Sachs again rates Tesla as "neutral" (which is generally seen as negative by investors) and says they like Tesla's shares, but "market conditions are weighing on earnings". I think that's a good assessment.


► Adobe opens well again (+0.7%; slightly above 508.00). We SHORT the software giant again, as we expect further profit-taking in the growth sector and the strong USD / reduced interest rate cut expectations are putting pressure on subscription-based models such as Adobe Creative Cloud in particular. In addition, Adobe is relatively expensive (forward P/E almost 29) and is therefore also affected by the general rotation from growth / high valuation to other sectors. In addition, I currently see Adobe more as an AI loser - even if I believe Adobe can significantly improve its products with AI - Adobe needs innovation - and fast, because AI will play a very important role, especially in image/video editing.

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 100 - 110 (10,000% - 11,000%) when trading with Adobe (ADBE).

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📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‌ Markets on hold ahead of tomorrow's PCE data; USD rises on rate-cut pushback


We are seeing the markets we expected with traders not making bold moves ahead of Friday's PCE data and general concerns that the Fed's preferred inflation measure is the next hot inflation report. Also, a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller titled "There's Still No Rush" makes one wonder if the Fed is really on track for a first rate cut in June. The USD strengthened and the yield on the 2-year US Treasury also rose by a not inconsiderable 5 basis points.

Wall Street has hardly changed and will probably open flat on Wednesday after the positive development. Markets in Europe ended the quarter close to record highs. It was another very strong quarter for global equities.

Markets are in a strange situation as important data falls on a holiday tomorrow. A potentially hot inflation report poses significant downside risk to equities on fears that inflation could accelerate again and interest rates could stay higher for longer.

USD strength caused several currency pairs to fall through key levels, including the EUR/USD, which fell below 1.08000 and to its lowest level in five weeks.

Following a slew of US data (GDP growth, initial jobless claims, Michigan consumer sentiment, etc.), there will be some volatility today, but ultimately the market awaits tomorrow's key inflation data.

We expect cautious trading, which will support the USD and gold prices (although a stronger USD will lead to temporary dips), as well as some profit taking in equities - especially interest rate sensitive stocks - i.e. growth/tech/cyclical stocks.

NYSE trading hours will be shortened today and close three hours earlier.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

March 28, 2024

🌐/🇺🇞 Global Markets
➡/↘
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ➡/↘
Tech/Growth Stocks ➡/↘
Financial Stocks ↗/➡
Defensive Stocks
➡/↗
Energy Stocks ↗/➡ (benefiting from a rebound in oil prices)
Materials Stocks ➡

💱 Forex
USD ↗ (remains supported ahead of US PCE data)
JPY ➡ (traders remain at the sideline with concerns about more hawkish BoJ talk)
EUR, GBP, CAD ↘/➡
AUD, CHF ↘

⚒ Commodity Markets ↕
Oil prices ↗/↕ (remains bullish; May see some headwinds as USD strengthens)
Natural Gas prices ➡ (remains volatile and bearish)
Metal prices ➡/↘ (headwinds due to stronger USD)
Gold ↕/↗ (stronger USD will lead to temporary losses / remains bullish)


⚡Cryptos ↕ (continues to hover near $70K)

(*↗ bullish, ↘ bearish, ➡ sideways / stable, ↕ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert


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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold
(XAU/USD)🥇
CLOSE RANGE ✅ @: 2210 - 2214 (range)
or
SL 🔑 @: 2208.34
TP ✅ @: 2113.43

I see that many/most of you still hold a LONG position in gold or went back (again) in the range $2,186 - $2,190 as planned. We saw gold first hitting resistance at $2,200 as expected but then breaking through (also as we expected). Gold then saw some technical buying. Gold remains bullish but we want to close profits here. If you are not LONG anymore - we will get back in the next dip back to (near) 🔌 $2,200. We don't want to buy above $2,210 for now as it's likely we see soon some profit taking - also as we see yields slightly up for today and likely USD strength to return

PS: While I said we want to get certainly back range $2,186 - $2,190 in case our (in-profit) SL is triggered - I will not count this as our next successful gold trade. However, we will continue to buy dips for now.

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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Thursday, March 28

❗ Europe ends quarter at record level; Wall Street with subdued movements as markets await US labor market & inflation data

► European equities hit new records as the Stoxx 600 Index ends a second quarter with strong gains, driven by central bank policies hinting at upcoming rate cuts. This week saw modest movements among investors rebalancing portfolios at the quarter's end. In economic news, Germany's unemployment rate remained unchanged while retail sales decreased by 0.8%. In the UK, GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q4 which aligns with cautious investor outlooks, emphasizing the need for strategic central bank interventions to sustain economic momentum.

► In the US, futures are little changed, after the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, underscoring the market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve signals and economic data. Markets await the release of GDP growth and job data later today. On Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE Price Index) is due, which leads Wall Street to balance on the edge of optimism and the need for concrete earnings growth to justify current valuations. The markets will act cautiously today, as the markets will be closed for the holiday tomorrow when the important US inflation figures are published. The latest comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who advocates patience when adjusting interest rates until inflation trends are clearer, are contributing to the caution.

► Asian markets present a mixed view with Hong Kong and Japan advancing, while Taiwan sees declines. Japan's finance minister's currency warnings and China's bolstering of the CNY reflect the region's nuanced economic landscape. The AI sector's rally notably supports shares in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, illustrating the global impact of technological advancements on stock markets.

► Commodities witness oil aiming for a quarterly gain amid OPEC+ supply cuts and expectations for rising oil demand. WTI Crude oil prices rose, now trading $81.5/barrel. Gold remains stable near record highs at $2,195/oz after again finding temporary resistance at $2,200 as predicted by our chief analyst.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔞 🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 07:00 (released)
🔞 🇬🇧 GDP Growth Rate - 07:00 (released)
🔞 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 08:55 (released)
🔞 🇺🇞 Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
🔞 🇺🇞 GDP Growth Rate - 12:30
🔞 🇺🇞 Core PCE Prices - 12:30
🔞 🇺🇞 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - 14:00
🔞 🇯🇵 Tokyo Inflation Rate / CPI - 23:30
🔞 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales - 23:30

🔞 = Event of medium/high importance
♊ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀ 🇚🇳 Bank China (BACHY)
☀ 🇚🇳 China Construction Bank Corp (CICHY)
☀ 🇺🇞 Walgreens Boots (WBA)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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Overview last 9 trading days:

✅ Performance: 15.3 - 20.3

25/25 = 100% Success Rate

✅ 21.3 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗ (SL - 8174.30)
❌ 21.3 - USD/JPY - SHORT ↘ (SL - 115.816 /or TP 115.067)
✅ 21.3 - GBP/AUD - SHORT ↘ (SL - 1.92867)
❌ 21.3 - MSFT - LONG ↗ (SL - 421.97)
✅ 21.3 - BA - LONG ↗ (SL - 190.77)
✅ 21.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 2178.89)
❌ 21.3 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 0.65297)
✅ 21.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗ (TP - 18388.90)
✅ 21.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗ (SL - 150.73)

6/9 = 66.7% Success Rate

✅ 22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 2174.43)
✅ 22.3 - NZD/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 0.60111; slight profit)
✅ 22.3 - APPL - LONG ↗ (SL - 172.17 / potentially with slippage)
❌(✅) 22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 2159.77 /or in TP 2174.13)
✅ 22.3 - BA - LONG ↗ (closed ~ 193.67 for me)
✅ 22.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗ (TP - 150.97)
✅ 22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 2174.13)
❌ 22.3 - V - LONG ↗ (SL - 280.79)

6/8 = 75% Success Rate

✅ 25.3 - USOIL - LONG ↗ (TP - 81.679)
✅ 25.3 - CVX - LONG ↗ (SL - 156.23)
✅ 25.3 - INTC - LONG ↗ (SL - 41.93)
✅ 25.3 - US30 - LONG ↗ (SL - 39433.20)
✅ 25.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 2,184.49)
✅ 25.3 - XOM - LONG ↗ (TP - 114.89) 📞 closed today
✅ 25.3 - BA - LONG ↗ (SL - 41.93)

7/7 = 100% Success Rate

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SELL NOW 🔜 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇞

► We sell the Dow Jones shortly at NYSE closing, while stocks make surprisingly strong gains and the Nasdaq 100 also re-tested the 18300 mark.

► After Wall Street closed lower for three days, the Dow Jones is now 1.2 % higher and back near the ATH (currently near / at 39820 - potentially rising a bit further looking at the current positive momentum (~39850 - 39890) before falling again.

► Strong gains in defensive stocks, but also in financials, as well as above-average tech stocks as components (such as Apple, Amazon, Intel) and the strong gains in healthcare / defensive stocks have caused the Dow Jones to shoot up by more than 300 points today.

► We are selling here and see the market as stretched in the short term after today's gains. We expect markets to trade much more cautiously tomorrow (when the markets close early due to the holiday) before the markets remain closed on Friday when important data such as the US PCE - the Fed's preferred inflation reading - is released.

► The strong gains have also led to our Exxon position closing (just now) in the TP ✅ - 114.89.

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

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Tesla was "(re-)rated" three times today. We still tend to see relatively optimistic forecasts for Tesla, but opinions are definitely further dividing. Even if one sees Tesla positively here in the long-term - and I see potential for more much more sales through innovation again 2025+ (after a probably weak 2024) - Tesla simply remains too expensive today with slowing sales growth, both a strong loss of market share and pressure on margins. In addition, the EV market is tending to become more difficult with falling prices. The great price pressure (and price cuts), as well as the massive production volume have also led to a sharp drop in the value of used EVs (which further increases the price pressure).


📊 SmartTrader Premium Insights:
Analyst Rating Updates

📆 Wednesday, March 27

🟢 Positive Ratings:

Apple (AAPL) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: JPMorgan reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"

Deutsche Bank (DB) 🇩🇪🟡‎🟢
Analyst: Morgan Stanley upgrades to "OVERWEIGHT"
Previously: "EQUAL WEIGHT"

Disney (DIS) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: UBS reiterates as "BUY"
Price Target: $120 ‎ $140

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: Needham adds to "CONVICTION LIST"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: Wells Fargo reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ‎ $(VIP ONLY)

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: Raymond James resumes as "STRONG BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: Citigroup opens a "POSITIVE CATALYST WATCH"

Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: Citigroup reiterates as "BUY"

Spotify (SPOT) 🇞🇪🟢
Analyst: HSBC initiates as "BUY"
Price Target: $310

Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇞🟢
Analyst: Evercore ISI initiates as "OUTPERFORM"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)

🟡 Neutral Ratings:

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇞🟢‵🟡
Analyst: UBS downgrades to "NEUTRAL"
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ‎ $(VIP ONLY)

Lowe’s (LOW) 🇺🇞🟢‵🟡
Analyst: DA Davidson downgrades to "NEUTRAL"
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $270

Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇞🟡
Analyst: Citigroup reiterates as "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $224 ‵ $196

Visa (V) 🇺🇞🟢‵🟡
Analyst: Redburn Atlantic downgrades to "NEUTRAL"
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $307

Wells Fargo (WFC) 🇺🇞🟢‵🟡
Analyst: KBW downgrades to "MARKET PERFORM"
Previously: "OUTPERFORM"
Price Target: $177 ‎ $200

🔎 Negative Ratings:

FedEx (FDX) 🇺🇞🟡‵🔎
Analyst: BNP Paribas downgrades to "UNDERPERFORM"
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $250

Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇞🔎
Analyst: Baird reiterates as "BEARISH FRESH PICK"

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇞🔎
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as "UNDERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ‎ $(VIP ONLY)

Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.

🟢 = positive rating
🟡 = neutral rating
🔎 = negative rating

‎ = upgrade
‵ = downgrade

You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE
🔗

💬 As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!

SmartTrader™ Analyst team

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Yields continue to fall. We now see yields on the 10-year US Treasury note below 4.2% for the first time since March 13.

This provides an additional tailwind for yield-sensitive gold.

Falling yields are also providing some support for growth stocks - I see this as temporary, with cautious trading likely to intensify towards NYSE closing.

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SELL NOW 🔜 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇞

► I don't think we will see much more recovery from here as investors are getting increasingly nervous ahead of the release of important economic data (especially on Friday) especially as this important data comes out while the markets are closed. I see headwinds in the 18230 - 18270 range - we could see another push towards 18300, but in any case also more profit taking towards Thursday/Friday.

► We see a rotation from tech to more defensive sectors and European stocks, with the DAX hitting a new ATH again today. Gains in Apple and declines in other tech stocks are also a typical sign that tech investors / trades are becoming more defensive.

► The Nasdaq is still up slightly, the Dow Jones has even risen by 0.6 % and is benefiting from the shift into more defensive stocks, particularly healthcare stocks.

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

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We haven't SHORTed much lately - but have been (as always) trading indices better than anyone else.

❌ DON'T EVER MISS AN INDEX-TRADE FROM US ❌

1 ✅ 27.2 - SPX500 - LONG ↗
2 ✅ 29.2 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
3 ✅ 1.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
4 ✅ 1.3 - GER_40 - LONG ↗
5 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
6 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
7 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
8 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
9 ✅ 7.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
10 ❌ 8.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
11 ✅ 13.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
12 ✅ 14.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
13 ✅ 14.3 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗
14 ✅ 19.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
15 ✅ 19.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘
16 ✅ 20.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
17 ✅ 21.3 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗
18 ✅ 21.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
19 ✅ 25.3 - US30 - LONG ↗

18/19 = 94.7% Success Rate

20
✎ 27.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘

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SELL NOW 🔜 Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇞
⚠ Volatile

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SELL NOW 🔜 Adobe (ADBE) 🇺🇞

► Very unfortunate with renewed pre-market gains for Tesla. We still see Tesla 0.5% higher, but well below the strong opening of +1.5%.

► We continue to expect profit-taking in the EV pioneer and also expect more caution and profit-taking in general.

► We still see Tesla as volatile at the moment, which gives us the opportunity to SHORT Tesla on the next slight spike - but we can also sell directly here - as we expect further profit taking after yesterday's strong performance.

► I also see an attractive entry point in Adobe, which is trading almost 1% higher. I see Adobe as one of the AI losers - even if Adobe has improved Photoshop & Co with AI functions - many options, such as AI image creation, are also possible (even better) outside the Adobe Suite.

► We are also seeing more headwinds for the growth sector in general and the stronger USD is having a particularly negative impact on subscription-based revenue models - such as Adobe Creative Cloud.

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 280 - 300 (28,000% - 30,000%) trading Tesla (TSLA)

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 100 - 110 (10,000% - 11,000%) trading Adobe (ADBE).


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📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‌ Strong quarter draws to a close; Markets remain on hold


The markets are holding back and preparing for more economic data to be released on Friday (when the markets are closed) as well as the end-of-quarter rebalancing. We see Wall Street slightly up, trimming losses from the start of the week. European equities are almost unchanged / slightly positive. Another strong quarter is coming to a close - we could see a bit more volatility later today as pension funds are also expected to sell $32 billion worth of stocks to rebalance their positions - one of the largest rebalances in history and possibly another reason why stocks are getting more pressure along with the upcoming PCE data, which many investors fear will be the next hot inflation data.

The other markets are also moving mostly sideways. The JPY initially fell to a 34-year low today (against the USD) but then recovered on speculation that the Japanese authorities may be preparing to intervene to support the currency. At the moment, I see a lot of talk that could temporarily support the JPY, but no action that could support the JPY in the longer term.

Wall Street has gotten off to a good start and continues to trade near record highs - similar to the markets in Europe and Japan. Nevertheless, movements have been muted this week and the market continues to trade cautiously ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator on Friday. We expect further selling in the US equity markets and for the USD to regain some traction. While the stronger USD weighs on gold, uncertainty continues to keep the gold price up.

While more and more analysts see the end of the current rally, I believe that the mega-cap stocks (rally in big tech companies) on Wall Street could still go further and that the strong gains still have room to spill over into other sectors and other markets (such as Europe and Asia). For now, however, it is important to recognize the nervousness in the market.

Oil prices have fallen after recent strong gains as US inventories show signs of rising. I expect a general deterioration in risk sentiment, which will temporarily weigh on (US) equities and commodities.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

March 27, 2024

🌐/🇺🇞 Global Markets
↗/➡/↘ (good start into the day - profit taking in second half of US trading)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗/➡/↘
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗
/➡/↘
Financial Stocks ↗
/➡
Defensive Stocks
↗/➡
Energy Stocks ➡/↘ (temporary more headwinds due to lower oil & gas prices)
Materials Stocks ↘
(temporary more headwinds due to lower commodity prices)

💱 Forex
USD ↗ (likely getting some traction again in cautious trading ahead of PCE data)
EUR ↗/➡
CAD, GBP➡
JPY ↕/↘ (losing after initial recovery gains)
AUD, CHF ↘

⚒ Commodity Markets ↘/↕
Oil prices ↘/➡ (temporary headwinds)
Natural Gas prices ↘ (remains volatile and bearish)
Metal prices ↘ (temporary headwinds on cautious trading / stronger USD)
Gold ↕/↗ (stronger USD will lead to temporary losses / remains bullish)


⚡Cryptos ➡ (in sideways for now - searching for guidance)

(*↗ bullish, ↘ bearish, ➡ sideways / stable, ↕ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert


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SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)

►In early Wednesday trading (Asia), the yen fell to 151.97 against the USD before recovering following comments from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and his top currency official Masato Kanda suggesting that Japan was ready to act.

►The USD/JPY subsequently fell almost 100 pips - back to near 151.000. We buy this sharp drop and see options in Japan as rather limited - and currently see mostly verbal warnings that may have a short-term effect (like today) but will ultimately fail to stem the tide against the yen.

► The Japanese government could buy yen on a large scale - something it did in 2022 to support the currency (it started at a similar level to where we currently see the yen) - but the tone remains mixed and contradictory, especially with BoJ Governor Ueda insisting that financial conditions remain loose.

► After recent solid US economic data and concerns about a hot PCE reading (on Friday), we generally see more USD buying in the coming hours.

► We are working with an SL - in case Tokyo or the Bank of Japan really support the JPY significantly - currently I don't see that coming.

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 35+ (!) minutes! ⚠
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Wednesday, March 27

❗ Markets continue to move sideways ahead of US inflation data; Gold with further upside potential

► European markets, as well as nearly all other market are on hold, with the Stoxx 600 Index barely moving as investors await more economic data, such as consumer and economic confidence data, but in particular Friday's US PCE data. A surge in Hennes & Mauritz (H&M) shares, by up to 13%, follows a better-than-expected profit report. Spanish inflation and French consumer confidence figures came in higher than expected, setting the stage for Friday's anticipated US PCE report.

► US futures are slightly up (~ +0.3%), yet this week's movements are extremely cautious ahead of the US inflation data release on Friday. The bond market saw little movement in major yields, with the US 10-year Treasury holding at around 4.23%. Traders are in particular so cautious, as there is limited trading on Thursday (shortened bond trading in the US) and most global markets remain closed on Friday - while key economic data from the US & Europe are released and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a speech.

► In Asia, the picture is mixed; Japanese gains are counterbalanced by dips in China. China and Hong Kong shares fell, largely due to tech sector losses following Nvidia's decline and Alibaba’s halted logistics arm listing. The JPY’s decline to its weakest since 1990 has sparked speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities. After the Bank of Japan's rate hike, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki hinted at possible further actions to support the currency.

► In the commodity market, oil sees a slight decrease after US inventory reports. WTI Crude oil is now trading at around $80.8/barrel. Gold maintains its position near historic highs at around $2,183/oz. According to our chief analyst, gold remains very bullish and will benefit from the rising uncertainty / caution in the markets.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔞 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence - 07:45 (released)
🔞 🇪🇞 Inflation Rate / CPI - 08:00 (released)
🔞 🇪🇺 Economic Sentiment & Consumer Confidence - 10:00
🔞 🇺🇞 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 14:30

🔞 = Event of medium/high importance
♊ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀ 🇚🇳 Industrial Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)
☀ 🇺🇞 Cintas (CTAS)
☀ 🇚🇳 Bank of Communications (BCMXY)
☀ 🇺🇞 Carnival (CCL)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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✅ 25.3 - USOIL - LONG ↗ (TP - 81.679)
✅ 25.3 - CVX - LONG ↗ (SL - 156.23)
✅ 25.3 - INTC - LONG ↗ (SL - 41.93)
✅ 25.3 - US30 - LONG ↗ (SL - 39433.20)
✅ 25.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 2,184.49)
✎ 25.3 - XOM - LONG ↗ (open - off-profit)
✅ 25.3 - BA - LONG ↗ (SL - 41.93)

6/7 (1 open position)

✎ 26.3 - CAD/CHF - LONG ↗ (open - in-profit)
✎ 26.3 - BP - LONG ↗ (open - off-profit)
✅ 26.3 - TSLA - SHORT ↘ (SL - 182.53)
✎ 26.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2164.23 // TP ✅ @: 2185.33 (optional)
✎ 26.3 - BTC/USD - SHORT ↘ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 71156.60 // TP ✅ @: 68687.60
✎✅ 26.3 - TSLA - SHORT ↘ (SL in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 179.81 // TP ✅ @: 173.67

2/6 (5 open positions)

Sorry for the late overview post - I was watching football: 🇩🇪🇳🇱. Happy that also Ukraine is part of the Euro 2024.

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Bitcoin
(BTC/USD) 💰
SL 🔑 @: 71156.60
TP ✅ @: 68687.60

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2164.23
TP ✅ @: 2185.33 (optional)

We can set tighter TPs for our gold and Bitcoin positions. Even if the risk/reward ratio does not appear to be optimal here, we do not want to close in the SL and are therefore only setting them here to limit potential losses.

We are very bullish on gold and see a strong environment / sentiment for gold tomorrow. We see risk sentiment deteriorating, which will also weigh on Bitcoin, which rallied excessively on Monday.

We have found very good entries here in both BTC and gold.


———

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► We saw now more strong US economic data with lower than expected initial jobless claims and USD GDP data again above expectations and at very impressive 3.4% QoQ (vs. 3.2% expected). Labor data overall is more mixed with some signs of rising joblessness (from an extremely tight starting point).

► The impact on the USD is smaller than I would have expected as the strong GDP data makes rate cuts very questionable. It will also further increase expectations that tomorrow's inflation report comes on the hot side - as a strong economy usually means high consumer spending thus increased price pressure.

► We buy already the small dip in gold here (near $2,207) as we anyways see gold further bullish.

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%) when trading Gold (XAU/USD)

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 22+ (!) minutes! ⚠
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► We are increasing our LONG position in the USD ahead of key US data, including tomorrow's US PCE data, which many investors fear will be the next hot US inflation report. We expect resistance in the range 1.26250 - 1.26350.

► The pair had fallen below the key 1.26000 level but is now seeing a short-term spike before likely falling back below this level. Other USD pairs such as EUR/USD (1.08000) or e.g. AUD/USD (0.65000) also fell below key levels, showing that USD buying is increasing as we expected.

► UK GDP data of -0.3% QoQ and -0.2% YoY show that the UK cannot withstand high interest rates for much longer - combined with a weakening consumer but also persistent disinflation, rate cuts are likely in the next three months. The more resilient data from the US, on the other hand, makes it questionable whether the US economy will need rate cuts as early as Q2 or whether the first cut will come in Q3.

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠
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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
USD/JPY

SL 🔑 @: 151.287
TP ✅ @: 151.743

We are seeing very subdued trading activity on all markets. The JPY is weakening again after being temporarily supported by verbal intervention, but with no concrete action in sight from either Tokyo or the Bank of Japan.

152.000 is still an important level, triggering some hawkish comments from policy makers, but without actual action the level will not hold and the JPY will weaken further. In particular, BoJ Governor Ueda's statements that the BoJ will continue to pursue a loose monetary policy weighs on the yen.

The USD will be influenced today by the labor market and consumer sentiment data, but above all by tomorrow's US PCE data. We expect the USD to see additional demand today as many investors are concerned about a possible hot inflation report.

We give the USD/JPY room for further gains.


———-

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✅ 26.3 - CAD/CHF - LONG ↗ (TP - 0.66748)
✎ 26.3 - BP - LONG ↗ (open - off-profit)
✅ 26.3 - TSLA - SHORT ↘ (SL - 182.53)
✅ 26.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 2184.43)
✅ 26.3 - BTC/USD - SHORT ↘ (closed - 69013.22 / near b-even)
✅ 26.3 - TSLA - SHORT ↘ (SL - 179.81 / potentially slippage)

5/6 (1 open position)

✎ 27.3 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 151.147 (optional) // TP ✅ @: 151.743
✎ 27.3 - TSLA - SHORT ↘ (open - off-profit)
✅ 27.3 - ADBE - SHORT ↘ (TP - 501.16)
✎ 27.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘ (open - off-profit)
✅ 27.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 2191.43)
✎✅ 27.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (open - SL in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2190.67 // TP ✅ @: 2197.13
✎ 27.3 - US30 - SHORT ↘ (just entered)

3/7 (5 open positions)

If you want you can set an in-profit SL for your USD/JPY position. You can set a TP. We expect the USD to edge higher tomorrow - but the pair might be JPY influenced in case Japanese officials use again comments trying to stabilize the yen.

Good night 🌙
Robert

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold
(XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2190.67
TP ✅ @: 2197.13

We set a in-profit SL and keep a tight TP. We expect gold to remain bullish but gold may see temporary resistance at $2,200 allowing likely a re-entry (again) range $2,186 - $2,190.

(PS: if your broker has gold currently closed - it should re-start trading in about 45 minutes)


——-

01 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
02 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
03 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
04 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
05 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
06 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
07 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
08 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
09 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
10 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
11 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
12 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
13 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
14 - ✅ 14.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
15 - ✅ 15.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
16 - ✅ 19.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
17 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
18 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
19 - ✅ 21.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
20 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
21 - ❌/✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗ (pot. closed in SL)
22 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
23 - ✅ 25.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
24 - ✅ 26.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
25 - ✅ 27.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
26 - ✎✅ 27.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗ (SL in Profit)

25/26

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► We are getting back into gold after our tight SL was triggered. A mini-rise in yields, which pushed the 10-year US Treasury above 4.2%, has again caused a slight correction in gold. We continue to see yields at this level, but still 4 basis points lower for today. There are signs that yields are falling further as some investors / potentially also funds are shifting into bonds (a defensive move).

► We are seeing minimal movement on Wall Street following a rotation from growth to more defensive sectors.

► The USD also remains sideways after making some gains after we went LONG in the USD (USD/JPY).

► We want to stay LONG in gold and may enter again here $2,189 - $2,190.

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%) when trading Gold (XAU/USD)

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠
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———

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold
(XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2191.43
TP ✅ @: 2197.37

We are now tightening our SL and secure profits.

We see yields continuing to fall. We continue to buy the dips in gold. If our SL is triggered, we get back in range $2,186 - $2,190. We have hit this dip almost perfectly.


——

Our last 25 gold trades:

01 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
02 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
03 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
04 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
05 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
06 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
07 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
08 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
09 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
10 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
11 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
12 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
13 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
14 - ✅ 14.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
15 - ✅ 15.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
16 - ✅ 19.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
17 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
18 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
19 - ✅ 21.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
20 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
21 - ❌/✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗ (pot. closed in SL)
22 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
23 - ✅ 25.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
24 - ✅ 26.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
25 - ✎✅ 27.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗ (SL in Profit)

24/25 = 96% Success Rate

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► The stronger USD continues to weigh on commodity prices, including gold. The expectation of a hot US PCE report will also weigh somewhat on the gold price, as a very hot PCE report (incidentally, I don't expect an inflation report similar to the hot US CPI/PPI reports anyway) reduces the prospects of interest rate cuts.

► But that's about it. The great uncertainty - also intensified by the warnings from investment banks and analysts that we will soon see a sharp correction - including a sharp slowdown in corporate earnings that will make recent S&P 500 gains inadequate - continues to support gold. While I don't think that will happen, I see a strong year for gold, which will actually outperform the S&P 500 from here on out.

► Furthermore, the prospect of rate cuts remains - even if the Fed could come later or only 2 instead of the expected 3-4 rate cuts. Other central banks like the ECB, but also the Bank of England or even the RBA - they all see conditions moving towards their targets (and thus would allow easing of financial conditions).

► We are buying the small dip below $2,190 and expect the gold price to continue to rise and move back towards the 2,195 - 2,200 range soon.

🗣 Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%) when trading Gold (XAU/USD)

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠
⚡ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


———

🥇📈💵💵💵

01 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
02 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
03 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
04 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
05 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
06 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
07 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
08 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
09 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
10 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
11 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
12 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
13 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
14 - ✅ 14.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
15 - ✅ 15.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
16 - ✅ 19.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
17 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
18 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
19 - ✅ 21.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
20 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
21 - ❌/✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗ (pot. closed in SL)
22 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
23 - ✅ 25.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
24 - ✅ 26.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗

23/24 = 95.8% Success Rate

25 - ✎ 27.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Adobe
(ADBE) 🇺🇞
SL 🔑 @: 507.86
TP ✅ @: 501.16

We could have sold the early rise on Wall Street even more boldly here (as we fully expected the profit taking) - although it cannot be ruled out that we will see a second slight rise - back near 18300 (where we will then continue to position ourselves SHORT).

With Adobe we have made another golden stock pick. We can already secure large profits.

However, I still see significant downside potential in Adobe (also in Tesla). Congratulations - the market was very wrong on both stocks again - we took advantage of it.

You can also set an in-profit SL for Tesla - if you want - but I still see significant downside potential here.

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⚡ NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔰

We are again seeing some pre-market gains after very mixed, rather negative sessions in New York. We see a market that is largely in a wait-and-see mode and want to see what Wall Street does after the positive opening.

🔹 Tesla (+ 1.6%) opens higher after heavy profit-taking in yesterday's second half of US trading. Our position will end in SL (in profit). We continue to see Tesla under pressure. Analysts are still divided on Tesla. We could see buying in Tesla again initially - we want to find a good entry point to position SHORT again (after initial gains).

🔹 ExxonMobil (- 0.1%) will recover, even if we see slight additional selling today. We are double LONG in the energy sector - as we also hold a BP position (currently with no profit). We see XOM in a good position for further gains in April, but set an SL 🔑 here - 113.13 (and keep our TP - 114.89).


► Similar to yesterday - the right decision is to give the markets first some room to breath after a positive pre-market performance. We may see small additional gains, but overall we expect continued cautious trading and more profit taking in the second half of US trading - with selling probably starting a bit earlier.

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
CAD/CHF

SL 🔑 @: 0.66607
TP ✅ @: 0.66748

Wir aktualisieren unseren CAD/CHF. Wir sehen den CHF weiterhin schwach und der CAD profitiert von den positiven Aussichten fÌr die Rohstoffpreise sowie der Tatsache, dass die europÀischen Zentralbanken dovisher sind als die Bank of Canada.

Der CAD/CHF erreichte heute ein neues 6-Monats-Hoch - wir sichern Gewinne.


———

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Bitcoin
(BTC/USD) 💰
TP ✅ @: 69806.60
or
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 69900 (area)

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP triggered ✅ @: 2184.43

Our Gold position triggered our TP in a sudden spike upwards - now trading again near $2.190. We are looking to get back in the next dip. Gold remains bullish. We should have probably worked with a wider TP here knowing the bullishness of gold and the very good current environment for the yellow precious metal.

We now set a very tight TP for our Bitcoin position - we just want to get out - you can also close now. We see a slightly improving risk sentiment - with Wall Street pointing to a slightly positive opening. The temporarily improved risk sentiment may help Bitcoin to edge a bit further up.

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Bitcoin
(BTC/USD) 💰
SL 🔑 @: 70357.60
TP ✅ @: 69316.60

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2176.97
TP ✅ @: 2184.43

There was very little price movement overnight - even in the crypto market. We set an in-profit SL for our Gold position now and tighten the SL. It remains a very good market for gold - especially with uncertainty / caution rising in today / tomorrow's session ahead of important data on Friday (including the US PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure) while markets remain closed.

In case our Gold SL is triggered - we get back in at a lower price (again likely range $2,170 - $2,174).

We also set a tight TP for our Bitcoin position - which we want to get triggered. We see here a market searching for direction.


———

We have won at least 23 of our last 24 gold trades:

01 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
02 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
03 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
04 - ✅ 05.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
05 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
06 - ✅ 06.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
07 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
08 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
09 - ✅ 07.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
10 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
11 - ✅ 08.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
12 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
13 - ✅ 12.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
14 - ✅ 14.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
15 - ✅ 15.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
16 - ✅ 19.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
17 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
18 - ✅ 20.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
19 - ✅ 21.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
20 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
21 - ❌/✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗ (pot. closed in SL)
22 - ✅ 22.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
23 - ✅ 25.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗
24 - ✎✅ 26.03 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇 - LONG ↗ (SL in Profit)

23/24 = 95.8% Success Rate

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Overview last 8 trading days:

✅ Performance: 15.3 - 19.3

14/14 = 100% Success Rate

✅ 20.3 - GBP/AUD - SHORT ↘ (TP - 1.93821)
✅ 20.3 - USOIL - LONG ↗ (TP - 81.243)
✅ 20.3 - NVDA - LONG ↗
✅ 20.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗
✅ 20.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗
✅ 20.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗
✅ 20.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗
✅ 20.3 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 0.65989)
✅ 20.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗ (SL - 148.93 /or TP 149.97)
✅ 20.3 - AMZN - LONG ↗ (TP - 179.47 - open at 179.99)
✅ 20.3 - CVX - LONG ↗

11/11
= 100% Success Rate

✅ 21.3 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗ (SL - 8174.30)
❌ 21.3 - USD/JPY - SHORT ↘ (SL - 115.816 /or TP 115.067)
✅ 21.3 - GBP/AUD - SHORT ↘ (SL - 1.92867)
❌ 21.3 - MSFT - LONG ↗ (SL - 421.97)
✅ 21.3 - BA - LONG ↗ (SL - 190.77)
✅ 21.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 2178.89)
✎ 21.3 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗ (open; off-profit; likely in SL)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 0.65297 // TP ✅ @: 0.65679
✅ 21.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗ (TP - 18388.90)
✅ 21.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗ (SL - 150.73)

6/9 (1 open position)

✅ 22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 2174.43)
✅ 22.3 - NZD/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 0.60111; slight profit)
✅ 22.3 - APPL - LONG ↗ (SL - 172.17 / potentially with slippage)
❌(✅) 22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (SL - 2159.77 /or in TP 2174.13)
✅ 22.3 - BA - LONG ↗ (closed ~ 193.67 for me)
✅ 22.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗ (TP - 150.97)
✅ 22.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗ (TP - 2174.13)
❌ 22.3 - V - LONG ↗ (SL - 280.79)

6/8 = 75% Success Rate

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⚡ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Tesla
(TSLA) 🇺🇞
SL 🔑 @: 179.81
TP ✅ @: 173.67

Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇞
SL 🔑 @: 421.97
TP ✅ @: 424.23

ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇞
TP ✅ @: 114.89

We se market sentiment really souring now. I was thinking earlier to sell the Nasdaq 100 - and it would have likely be the right call as we will see rising concerns tomorrow and on Thursday ahead of Friday's PCE data - the Fed's preferred inflation reading.

While I don't expect a big surprise, the fact that this important data is being released on a holiday when the markets are closed is leading to risk-off behavior.

I expect this to continue in the coming hours of trading as there is not enough stimulus (possible) to reverse this cautious trading.

In addition, European/Asian equities or gold, oil or even cash (USD) seem more attractive to some investors than much of Wall Street.

We are updating Tesla, Microsoft and giving XOM a relatively tight TP (we remain bullish on energy; are also long BP). We now want to get out of the growth sector and therefore set a very tight SL & (off-profit) TP for Microsoft. We set a wide TP for Tesla - I see a lot of downside potential here and believe that a SHORT in Tesla was the best trade of the day after today's sentiment-driven gains (for a stock that is not a small cap).


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