[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

08 Apr 2024 17:10

Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 154.63.

GOOGL remains our mega cash cow and we will continue to buy the dips. Our dip buy from Friday already closed at the TP (if you set it). If not, you can set your TP ✅ at 155.39 - close to the ATH and the SL 🔑 at 154.63.


We continue to see stocks in New York looking for direction.

——

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 38978.40
TP ✅ @: 39056.70

We set a relatively tight TP for our Dow Jones position (near daily high) - we can find a better re-entry.

SL optional at 38076.70 - or a little further - but in-profit.


——

Our Stock Picking remains exceptional.

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08 Apr 2024 16:27

We are watching a bit what yields (+ stock markets and market sentiment) are doing now as they are a good indicator of rate cut expectations.

We see gold finding some support near $2,320 (where we closed our SHORT position) 📸.

We are already seeing a cautious market as investors are now concerned about a possible next hot inflation report. In my opinion, CPI data is much more likely to be hot again (than PCE data was recently) - heightening fears that disinflation has stopped. If the market gets more nervous again, we should be LONG in gold again soon.

My gold SHORT hit the TP at 14:07 (UTC+0) instead of 14:04 (probably for most of you) - I initially thought of extending my TP but then moved it back to $2,320 as I think this level can support gold in the short term. Congratulations again - an impressive gold trade - against the market. We are now actually seeing some support for gold at $2,320.

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08 Apr 2024 15:53

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY WHEN* NYSE OPENS 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸

We see that Wall Street has recovered somewhat from last week's sharp drop. We expect a positive session, but investors will also become more cautious again ahead of the US CPI data on Wednesday.


🔹 Alphabet (+0.3%) opens slightly higher. We found a very good entry point on Friday before the close and expect Alphabet to return to the $154.00 - $155.50 range relatively soon. Oppenheimer has raised its price target for Alphabet from $172 to $185 per share. We are working with a TP ✅ @: 154.63.

🔹 Intel (+0.1%) opens flat, but has plenty of recovery potential after a 15% slump in the last 5 days. We are happy with our entry near the 2024 lows and remain LONG.


► We are making more dip buys. Nvidia is the center of attention in the (VIP ONLY) (which is almost every day though), with two more positive analyst reports. (VIP ONLY) has been under pressure recently and has seen heavy profit taking (after even stronger gains). We see (VIP ONLY) performing well below the Nasdaq 100 in pre-market trading - currently (VIP ONLY)% lower in pre-market trading (~$1(VIP ONLY); where we can buy / slightly below $(VIP ONLY). We expect (VIP ONLY) to retest and rise above $(VIP ONLY) in the short term and (VIP ONLY) in general to recover, even as yields continue to rise (which puts short-term pressure on growth stocks).

🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)

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08 Apr 2024 14:34

⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► After 32 gold LONG trades in a row - with the result that we were probably more successful in short-term gold trading (LONG) than any other (short-term) trader during this period - we are now temporarily positioning ourselves SHORT in gold.

► We see gold moving significantly higher again - currently 1.2% higher for the day near $2,340. After temporarily falling back almost to $2,300 in early Asian trading, there was another jump upwards, with gold again reaching a new ATH at over $2,350.

► While we continue to see gold outperforming and in an uptrend, we see a stronger USD today after interest rate cut expectations were lowered and US Treasury yields continue to rise sharply - putting fundamental pressure on the non-yielding yellow precious metal. US Treasury yields are at their 2024 peak and are currently more than 8 basis points higher (for US 10-Y).

► We remain bullish on gold, but expect a short-term correction.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%) when trading Gold (XAU/USD)

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08 Apr 2024 12:17

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Monday, April 8

❗️ Global equities mixed after more signs that Fed will keep rates higher for longer; Focus on upcoming US CPI data

► Investors geared up for a busy week packed with significant events including US inflation data due Wednesday as well as the ECB's interest rate decision. The first-quarter earnings season also kicks off this Friday, adding to market anticipation.

► European stock markets experienced a slight boost as investors awaited the European Central Bank's interest rate decision later this week. The Stoxx Europe 600 index increased by 0.25%, buoyed by a rebound in mining, tech and auto stocks. Notably, Germany showed a better-than-expected and strong trade surplus and significant industrial output growth, suggesting improving economic activity.

► In the United States, markets showed restrained activity with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures pointing to a subdued opening, following a strong performance last Friday. This comes as investors digest recent US labor-market data and anticipate key inflation figures due later this week. The focus is particularly on Wednesday's US consumer-price data, which is expected to influence Federal Reserve's rate decisions. High expectations from the upcoming first-quarter earnings season are also influencing market sentiments, with major banks set to report at the end of the week. Tesla's shares jumped in premarket trading ahead of its robotaxi reveal, providing some optimism amid its recent declines.

► While almost all analysts expected a sharp fall on Wall Street in the event of robust US labor market data (last Friday), as this would make interest rate cuts less likely, the very strong labor market data ended up having the opposite effect. As SmartTrader chief analyst Robert Lindner has already explained several times, the strong US data primarily shows the strength of the US economy, which does not need interest rate cuts at the moment.

► Asian markets had a mixed session, with Japanese equities falling on economic concerns, while Chinese equities fell slightly as investors reacted to geopolitical comments and awaited inflation data. The earthquake in Taiwan and the ongoing economic talks between the US and China are playing an important role in market dynamics in the region. Inflation figures and central bank measures will be closely monitored on the Asian markets in the coming days as well.

► The price of oil has fallen from its recent highs to $85.5/barrel following Israel's announcement to withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip, easing some of the geopolitical tensions that have been driving up prices. This drop in oil prices may ease inflation concerns somewhat, although the market remains mindful of the broader geopolitical situation. Gold, on the other hand, continued its upward trend and reached new highs. Gold is currently trading at around $2,336/oz. Our chief analyst sees further upside for gold in all time horizons, even if a short-term dip to $2,310 - $2,320 is to be expected.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇩🇪 Balance of Trade - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Consumer Inflation Expectations - 15:00

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

No significant earnings reports today

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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05 Apr 2024 22:47

Our expectations for the NFP data and the initial reaction, the reaction after the initial reaction and the profit taking in the second half of US trading - we all saw it coming - which makes me overall disappointed with our timing today. Could have traded today better. Important is that we didn't fall into the many traps and also haven't been hit by the very surprising NFP data (our three open positions, NZD/USD, Nasdaq 100 and Tesla benefited from the reading). We were extremely unlucky with gold, which saw a weird dip in overnight trading and also when our Nasdaq 100 SHORT hit our too tight SL before the expected profit taking kicked in. The weakness in the USD comes as a surprise given reduced rate cut expectations, a very strong US economy / labor market and significantly higher yields.

We update our FX position slightly.

Have a great weekend,
Your Rob

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 22:47

Overview last 14 trading days:

✅ Performance: 15.3 - 24.3

56/62 = 90.3% Success Rate

(✅) 28.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2208.34; not clear signal)
✅ 28.3 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (closed - 1.26186 / near b-even)
✅ 28.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2211.13)
✅ 28.3 - ADBE - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 501.36)

3/3 = 100% Success Rate

❌ 1.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18178.30)
✅ 1.4 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.07361)
❌ 1.4 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (SL - 420.43)
✅ 1.4 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 180.99 me| or TP 180.97, 182.48)
✅ 1.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2253.67)
✅ 1.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18263.30)

4/6 = 66.7% Success Rate

❌ 2.4 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.08517)
❌ 2.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18384.70)
✅ 2.4 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 153.47)
✅ 2.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18097.70)
✅ 2.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39147.40)
✅ 2.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2269.93)
✅ 2.4 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 160.38)

5/7 = 71.4% Success Rate

*No Update*

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 21:25

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
USD/CHF
SL 🔑 @: 0.90083
TP ✅ @: 0.90567

EUR/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.08436
TP ✅ @: 1.08153

CAD/CHF
TP ✅ @: 0.66732

In the end, everything is moving as we expected (and as we already described this morning and yesterday) - but unfortunately our timing was not optimal today after the NFP data. We will probably continue to see some risk aversion towards NYSE closing. This will support the USD, which has seen some non-fundamentally motivated selling, and lead to profit-taking in growth stocks - if you're still SHORT in the Nasdaq, I wouldn't close much below 18100 (~18080) or break-even (on your initial entry). We expect Wall Street to rally next week - unless geopolitical tensions worsen significantly.

The current market situation / sentiment is also positive for gold - we have already seen a strong bounce today after the USD experienced a correction. Gold is now also facing some headwinds as the USD strengthens and yields (of 10-year bonds) are now at more than +8 basis points for the day - a significant increase.


——

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05 Apr 2024 17:36

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
STAY LONG / BUY NOW 🔼 USD/CHF
SL 🔑 @: 0.89927
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 (VIP ONLY)/USD

► We first saw a significant rise in the USD and then the start of a correction, during which the USD gave back most of its gains. The USD/CHF is even below the level before the NFP data - which makes no sense from a fundamental perspective.

► We see equities benefiting from the expectation that the US economy will continue to push forward following several reports of improving US economic data (with the exception of the services sector) and further signs of an accelerating labor market with more hiring and falling unemployment - typical data of an expanding economy (which is also indicated by strong GDP growth).

► With all this, however, a weaker USD makes no sense, apart from a temporary reduction in the USD's appeal as a safe haven (which is actually the case anyway, as gold has long since taken its place).

► Expectations of interest rate cuts have fallen further - the most I could imagine is a single rate cut in the fourth quarter. We also see yields continuing to rise - even if they have reduced some of the stronger gains - which has also caused the current correction in the USD.

► We are improving our entry into the USD/CHF and additionally SHORTing the (VIP ONLY)/USD. The (VIP ONLY) is much (VIP ONLY), as (VIP ONLY) would benefit from an easing of (VIP ONLY). Moreover, rising (VIP ONLY) ...

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05 Apr 2024 15:41

🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯

We have only one open stock position and that is our Tesla SHORT. Tesla is the strong underperformer in the Nasdaq 100 today. We otherwise see a pretty flat opening. However, the very strong US labor market data, make it hard to imagine for me that the Fed can still argue for 3 rate cuts this year. It's more likely that we see none or one.


🔹 Tesla (- 1.0%) sees more losses than any of the other top 30 stocks in the Nasdaq 100. We see Tesla opening below $170.00. We are tightening our SL 🔑 @: 171.82 so that our re-entry has an in-profit SL. Japanese investment firm Daiwa gives Tesla a "neutral" rating and lowers PT to $180 from $195.

► If you are still LONG in Nvidia - you can set a TP at 878.80 - we may see first a short-term rebound.

► We first want to see how much potential dip buying there is. In reality we should see more headwinds given the sharply higher yields and further reduced rate cut expectations.


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05 Apr 2024 15:17

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
NZD/USD
SL 🔑 @: 0.59978
TP ✅ @: 0.59852

Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18007.60
TP ✅ @: 17922.60

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NZD/USD almost in the TP. We are tightening SL again. The USD should see much more tailwind. We already saw it that way at the beginning of the week anyway - but the market was once again supposedly smarter (= and as so often wrong).

However, it is amazing how well the Nasdaq 100 is holding up in the face of the much stronger USD / higher yields. The market still trusts that there will be interest rate cuts in the US in 2024. I think this is relatively unlikely. The US labor market data is getting stronger again, no easing like the Fed would want to see in the first place. The strong numbers also make it less likely that we will see continued disinflation.

We trust our analysis and are ahead of the markets.

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05 Apr 2024 15:03

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
NZD/USD
SL 🔑 @: 0.60006
TP ✅ @: 0.59852

Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18021.60
TP ✅ @: 17927.70

We are further tightening the SL of our NZD/USD position. We remain LONG in the USD.

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05 Apr 2024 14:42

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🟢
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18036.65
TP ✅ @: 17903.60

NZD/USD
SL 🔑 @: 0.60086
TP ✅ @: 0.59873

We update again. Give the Nasdaq a little more air but a tighter TP. The strong labor market figures actually show an extremely strong US economy - we only see selling due to the lower rate cut expectations. We update our NZD/USD.

This is the second update:
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05 Apr 2024 14:28

🚨 NFP data in 3 minutes

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🟢
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18111.70
TP ✅ @: 17665.70

NZD/USD
SL 🔑 @: 0.60456
TP ✅ @: 0.59667

You can update your positions. We want to work with a wider TP - as a hot report could result in more than 300 points of decline for the Nasdaq 100. We set a tight SL & wider TP for our NZD/USD - which tested overnight almost the 0.60000 already.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 12:35

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► It is almost impossible to trade the NFPs today because the data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is also so unreliable and the previous month's figures are always heavily revised.

► Yesterday there was very strong profit-taking, which pushed the Dow Jones down by more than 500 points and also caused the Nasdaq 100 to fall by 1.55% (S&P 500 -1.23%). The Dow Jones even closed negative for the fourth time in a row - which is interesting, as we have successfully traded the Dow Jones LONG four times during this period (including yesterday - we even closed two Dow Jones LONG positions with a profit).

► Asian markets fell slightly as Chinese markets were closed for the holiday. Europe saw heavy losses, with the Stoxx 600 falling by more than 1%. We see Wall Street trying to stabilize and seeing dip buying. I also believe Wall Street can rally next week, even though expectations for rate cuts are likely to be further reduced, BUT due to a very strong US economy and a resilient US labor market. The US economy does not need rate cuts.

► The only asset we really want to trade here is gold (LONG). We had the incredible misfortune of gold experiencing a significant short dip in Asian trading which triggered our SL (if you have it set) - if not, we still expect gold to rally back to and above $2,300 (we are now looking for a good re-entry).

► We are selling the Nasdaq's recovery attempt now and believe Wall Street will get more nervous ahead of the NFP report and then likely fall in response to a strong NFP report (not shockingly hot, but strong enough to further raise expectations that conditions for potential rate cuts are not yet in place and probably not in three months). In addition, while expectations are higher than in previous months - which in itself shows that the US economy remains strong, they can still be beaten significantly. I expect more like 220-250K new jobs. Wall Street is expecting 200K new jobs.

►We are working with an SL and TP.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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08 Apr 2024 16:41

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
AMD (AMD) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 170.49
TP ✅ @: 172.39

We made the NYSE opening mega trade - buying AMD's dip. We now secure big profits.

AMD has staged a solid rebound - Intel remains sideways for the time being, as it remains under pressure due to the very negative momentum of recent times. We can hedge AMD here and very likely re-enter at a lower price (both if SL or TP is triggered).

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08 Apr 2024 16:08

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP triggered ✅ @: 2320.26

Gold has just triggered our TP - congratulations - what a mega trade.

However, we are currently seeing yields rise a bit, as the yield on 10-year US government bonds is "only" 3-4 basis points higher (for 10-year US government bonds). We are very happy with our TP trigger here and are not positioning ourselves any further SHORT for the time being.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

08 Apr 2024 15:17

📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Yields rise as Fed rate cut expectations fall further ahead of eventful week

We see US Treasuries, as well as non-US bonds, falling further as swap markets continue to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts following another string of strong US economic data. Friday's NFP data came in much better than expected. We see that swap markets do not expect the Fed to cut rates by 60bps - meaning that markets are leaning towards "only" two Fed rate cuts (2 x 25bps) rather than three.

Higher yields and the expectation that rates will remain high for longer have created a headwind for bonds, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2024. It's another busy week, with key US CPI data due on Wednesday and also the ECB's interest rate decision. In addition, the next earnings season is just around the corner, which unofficially kicks off on Friday when JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Citigroup announce their Q1/2024 results.

Rising yields also increase the potential for another rate hike - especially if yields on the key 10-year rise above 5%. The recent strong US economic data is likely to remain an indicator of a very resilient, growing US economy. However, concerns over another hot inflation report will keep the market cautious ahead of the US Consumer Price Index report (on Wednesday).

Tesla rose 4.0% in pre-market trading, reversing some of its 34% year-to-date plunge. According to CEO Elon Musk, Tesla will unveil its new robot cab on August 8. Shares in cryptocurrency-related companies also rose as Bitcoin climbed back above the $72,000 mark, gaining for the third day in a row. Commodity prices also remain robust, with copper and iron ore prices rising - a sign that commodity traders are expecting demand to rise.

Oil prices, on the other hand, saw a slight correction after the recent strong gains following Israel's announcement that it would withdraw some troops from the Gaza Strip. The rapid rise in oil prices led to increased concerns about inflation - temporarily lower oil prices are therefore being welcomed by equity traders.

We expect Friday's slightly positive momentum to continue. We expected earnings to return after the NFP data and investors to become more optimistic again that strong US economic data could also lead to another strong earnings season.

Gold reached another all-time high in Asian trading, but appears slightly overbought in the short term given the sharp rise in yields. Nevertheless, gold will remain attractive in 2024 and has much more upside potential.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

April 08, 2024

🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️ (first moving back to Friday highs than extend gains; More cautious trading in second half of US trading)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️
Financial Stocks ➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ↘️/➡️ (temporary headwinds only)
Materials Stocks ↗️

💱 Forex
AUD ↗️ (benefiting from strong commodity prices)
CAD, ↗️/➡️ (benefiting from strong commodity prices)
USD ↗️/➡️
EUR, GBP ➡️
JPY, CHF ↘️

⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/↕️
Oil prices ↘️/↕️ (temporary headwinds; Oil to remain bullish)
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↕️ (mixed, short-term headwinds if NFP report comes in strong)
Gold ↗️/↘️/↕️ (Strong gains during Asian trading; remains bullish but temporary correction(s))

⚡️Cryptos ↗️/↕️ (Strong recovery after recent slump; temporary resistance near $73K)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

08 Apr 2024 13:15

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸

► We see Wall Street flat / or slightly lower in pre-market trading with mixed global markets. After the very strong US labor market data on Friday, which led to a positive Friday performance, we also see equities in Europe higher (also boosted by better German economic data).

► We expect a positive start to the week, although bonds are currently slipping further, pushing yields to new highs in 2024.

► Friday's much stronger than expected NFP data (we had expected solid, better-than-expected figures) was just the latest indicator of a very strong US economy. As long as earnings can hold up - earnings season for Q1/2024 officially starts on Friday - Wall Street will remain positive even at the current high valuations.

► A lot of attention will also be paid to the US consumer prices on Wednesday, as investors are becoming cautious again ahead of this. I expect disinflation to continue to stall - especially given the strong US consumer, labor market data, solid wage growth, etc. However, the strong economy, including continued inflation, will also boost earnings data - the rally can continue - even if there will be selling again on Wednesday.

► While we expect Europe to outperform Wall Street in 2024 (from here), we see the Dow Jones rising back above 39000 at least today - probably even further - to the 39100 - 39250 area.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———

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🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

1 ✅ 27.2 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️
2 ✅ 29.2 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
3 ✅ 1.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
4 ✅ 1.3 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️
5 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
6 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
7 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
8 ✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
9 ✅ 7.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
10 ❌ 8.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
11 ✅ 13.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
12 ✅ 14.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
13 ✅ 14.3 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️
14 ✅ 19.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
15 ✅ 19.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
16 ✅ 20.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
17 ✅ 21.3 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️
18 ✅ 21.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
19 ✅ 25.3 - US30 - LONG ↗️
20 ❌ 27.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
21 ✅ 27.3 - US30 - SHORT ↘️
22 ❌ 1.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
22 ✅ 1.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
23 ❌ 2.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️
24 ✅ 2.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
25 ✅ 2.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️
26 ✅ 3.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️
27 ✅ 3.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️
28 ✅ 4.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️
29 ✅ 5.4 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
30 ❌ 5.4 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️

25/30 = 83.3%

31 ✴️ 3.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️

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08 Apr 2024 11:53

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
EUR/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.08443
TP ✅ @: 1.08163

CAD/CHF
SL 🔑 @: 0.66447
TP ✅ @: 0.66732

The USD regained some of Friday's non-fundamental losses, although the very strong US labor market data makes a rate cut in June very unlikely and has also significantly lowered expectations for rate cuts in 2024. The market is still expecting rate cuts of more than 50 basis points in 2024, but the current US economic data strongly suggests that no rate cuts are necessary.

The ECB, on the other hand, seems to be increasingly gearing up for back-to-back rate cuts, with the first cut due in June. We see that the EUR/USD has given back most of Friday's gains.

We remain SHORT in this pair. We have made a very strong FX trade with our CAD/CHF position and are now setting an in-profit SL. The USD/CHF position has also moved back to post NFP data as we expected. However, if you were working with a tight SL, your position was closed in overnight trading / or in TP ~ one hour ago.


——

📈📉📈📉💵

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 22:47

✅ 3.4 - EUR/AUD - SHORT ↘️ (CLOSE - 1.65006)
✅ 3.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39248.40)
✅ 3.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2279.63)
✅ 3.4 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 153.67 - pot. minor slippage)
❌ 3.4 - INTC - LONG ↗️ (SL - 40.34)
❌ 3.4 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.08517)
✅ 3.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 39314.30|or 39298.90)
✅ 3.4 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 67268.90)
✅ 3.4 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 166.63) 🔄
✅ 3.4 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 119.52)

8/10 = 80% Success Rate

✅ 4.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2301.13| or 2301.69, 2299.97)
❌ 4.4 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (CLOSED - 865.73| SL 862.30)
✅ 4.4 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 154.09| or 153.77)
✅ 4.4 - CRM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 303.97)
✅ 4.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 39397.70)
❌ 4.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2278.89) 🔄
✅ 4.4 - NZD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.59978)

5/7 = 71.4% Success Rate

✅ 5.4 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️
✴️ 5.4 - USD/CHF - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 0.90047 🔄 // TP ✅ @: 0.90567 🔄
❌ 5.4 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18216.80)
(✴️) 5.4 - USD/CHF - LONG ↗️ (re-entry; open / in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 0.90047 🔄 // TP ✅ @: 0.90567 🔄
✴️ 5.4 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 1.08507 🔄 // TP ✅ @: 1.08163 🔄
✴️ 5.4 - CAD/CHF - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 0.65943 🔄 // TP ✅ @: 0.66732 🔄
✴️ 5.4 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️
✴️ 5.4 - INTC - LONG ↗️

1/8 - (7 open positions)

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 21:58

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Intel (INTC) 🇺🇸

► At the end of a positive day, there is now profit-taking.

► A solid / better than expected NFP report would have led to more selling in equities today, but the extremely strong NFP report we saw today had a positive impact again. In the end, we saw the normal reaction again (good report or in this case very good report = positive reaction). The labor market data was so strong that, given the strength of the US economy, it is accepted that interest rates will remain high for longer.

► We expect a positive week ahead. Even though rate cut expectations are likely to be scaled back further in the coming sessions, we have seen several pieces of data from the US economy that point to more growth. We have seen much more hiring than expected, higher labor force participation and solid wage growth (MoM) which underscores the strength of the labor market which in turn is a very good indicator of a strong economy.

► Despite a positive Friday, we still see a negative week. We are buying Alphabet here, which we still expect to outperform Intel, which has fallen by almost 10% (!) (now at 38.60). Alphabet is likely to rally back into the $154 - $155+ range early next week. Intel still has a lot of room to recover after this week's heavy selling. We are also seeing dip buying in other chip stocks.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 380 - 410 (38,000% - 41,000%) when trading Alphabet (GOOGL).

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 1,400 - 1,500 (140,000% - 150,000%) trading Intel (INTC).

⏱ HANDELSSIGNAL ist VERZÖGERT ⚠️ um: 15+ Minuten!
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——

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 18:42

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
USD/CHF
SL 🔑 @: 0.89979
TP ✅ @: 0.90567

EUR/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.08517
TP ✅ @: 1.08067

Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18216.80
TP ✅ @: 18053.20

Wall Street rallied after the hot NFP report. The report was so good that the drop in rate cut expectations had less impact than the actually strong labor market data, which shows that the US economy is still in a very good state of expansion. We expected the markets to recover significantly in the coming week, but that there would initially be further headwinds - but we now only see this to a limited extent.

An important factor was the already strong sell-off yesterday, which has already priced in a large part of today's potential downtrend.

It is puzzling why the USD experienced a full correction when it should be strongly supported fundamentally. Our NZD/USD ended deep in profit, but our USD/CHF rate after the data is now well into negative territory.

I expect the USD to rebound (again) towards the end of the day/week - but we are tightening our SLs.

At least our Tesla SHORT hit our wide TP after Tesla's announcement to discontinue its low-cost electric car "Model 2" in the face of heated competition in the low-price segment and made a nice profit.


——

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05 Apr 2024 16:44

🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► (VIP ONLY) market as market participants, analysts and investment banks struggle to interpret the latest NFP data. The confusion is so great that we saw sideways movement after the NYSE opening, despite yesterday's very sharp swings and today's NFP data that deviated sharply from expectations - an outcome that should lead to a lot of volatility.

► We closed the Nasdaq 100 almost perfectly. But are now going (VIP ONLY). The Nasdaq 100 recovery is driven by earnings from big tech companies and the hope that the strong US labor market data is more a sign of a very strong US economy (I actually agree with this view, but expect too much short-term headwinds from short-term influenced fundamentals).

► I believe that the markets will (VIP ONLY)if the rebound (VIP ONLY) We also expect more (VIP ONLY)

► We see significantly higher (VIP ONLY) and a probably further strengthening of (VIP ONLY) ...

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 45+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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05 Apr 2024 15:39

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18002.60
TP ✅ @: 17930.60

Investors remain deeply confused and analysts deeply divided. We now want to close in slight profit. We see sideways movement - crazy!

From a fundamental point of view, there should actually be further significant profit-taking here.

The market is irrational here.

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 15:07

We currently see swap markets to push out rate cuts from July to September in response to very strong US labor market data. For me personally, it's very hard to imagine any rate cuts anytime soon. I don't see even the case that the Fed should (and will) be cutting rates at all. If we see the debate about potential rate HIKES to return, then we could see more headwinds for stocks - especially rate sensitive stocks.

CME FedWatch Tool

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 14:52

We see that the market is confused as to how to interpret this very strong labor market data.

In the short term, this is likely to lead to further profit-taking in equities (especially growth stocks). The USD should gain significantly as a rate cut in June is now very unlikely. We also see yields rising sharply and reaching new highs by 2024.

We are not overtrading here - we are well positioned.

The higher yields are creating some headwinds for gold (and oil), but both remain bullish. We are looking for a good entry point.

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP CHANNEL ⚠️


⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🟢
NZD/USD
SL 🔑 @: 0.60021
TP ✅ @: 0.59852

We secure large profits with the NZD/USD SHORT. Stay LONG in the USD overall.


⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP CHANNEL ⚠️

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 14:38

🔰 LIVE TRADING 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 USD/CHF

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP CHANNEL ⚠️


► NFP comes in very hot - we are well positioned and additionally trade the USD LONG.

► We see a very hot report - with even a revision of +22.000 previous month and average weekly hours worked ticked higher, unexpectedly, to 34.4.

► Much tailwinds for the USD as this makes rate cuts increasingly unlikely.

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP CHANNEL ⚠️

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 8+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 13:53

📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Rate cut concerns & high oil prices weigh on markets; All eyes on NFP report

Growing concerns over whether the Fed will cut rates this year have led to a broad market decline ahead of today's key US jobs report, which analysts estimate will show that more than 200,000 new jobs were created last month. Another sign of a robust US economy - which I believe is highly likely - could further lower rate cut expectations and increase concerns about a prolonged rise in interest rates. In particular, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's reference to the possibility that rate cuts may not be necessary this year if progress on inflation fails to materialize led swap markets to further reduce their rate cut expectations.

In addition to signs of a tight US labor market and continued rapidly rising wages, we have seen strong signs of stubborn inflation in the US. Inflation concerns have been exacerbated by the recent sharp rise in oil prices. Other commodity prices have also risen again, including palm oil - a key component of global food production.

A flight to safety, exacerbated by the increasing escalation in the Middle East, is adding to a growing list of uncertainties. With all of this, investment banks and many analysts are warning that valuations in the US are too high.

Despite all these uncertainties, Wall Street is trying to recover and the S&P 500 is already up 0.3%. In Europe, however, shares have fallen significantly. Stocks in Asia are also mixed, but less changed overall as Chinese markets remain closed for a holiday.

While we see the long list of uncertainties, we also recognize a strong US economy and signs of an improving global economy. That being said, I still see the risk of a deeper correction in the short term and given the current momentum and sentiment, it is likely that we see a bit more selling. I expect a slightly stronger than expected NFP report, which will continue to weigh on market and equity sentiment in the short term.

This will be compounded by increasing geopolitical uncertainties, which will lead investors to fear further escalation over the weekend. Further selling on Friday therefore remains likely - although a rather cool or mixed NFP report would initially lead to a strong rebound.

Gold remains supported. Although there may be some short-term profit-taking, especially if the NFP report comes in hot, gold is one of the most attractive investments for 2024.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

⚠️ Today's movements will be highly affected by the NFP report. We expect a robust, rather strong US labor market report.

April 06, 2024

🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/↕️ (I expect more headwinds for markets as rate cut hopes will be further challenged; A soft NFP report will cause global stocks to rebound significantly)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/↕️/↘️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️/↕️/↘️
Financial Stocks ↗️/↕️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ↗️/↕️
Materials Stocks ↗️/↕️/↘️

💱 Forex
USD ↗️/↕️/↗️ (USD to benefit from robust US labor market data; if report comes in cool, sharp losses of USD)
EUR, ↗️/➡️ (being less affected by stronger USD than other currencies)
JPY ↗️/↘️ (will continue to be on path to 152.00 (USD/JPY) - then see some resistance)
CAD ➡️
GBP ➡️/↘️
USD ↘️/➡️ (USD to stabilize / edge higher in second half of US trading)
CHF ↘️

⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/↕️
Oil prices ↗️/↕️ (hovering near $86/barrel for WTI - remains bullish)
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↕️ (mixed, short-term headwinds if NFP report comes in strong)
Gold ↕️/↗️ (remains bullish - may see short-term headwinds on stronger USD)

⚡️Cryptos ↘️/↕️/↗️ (remains volatile; showed signs of support)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

⚠️ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

05 Apr 2024 10:54

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Friday, April 5

❗️ Markets are tense ahead of US labor market data: Europe, Asia fall, Wall Street tries to stabilize

► European markets saw a notable decline, with the Stoxx 600 dipping more than 1.1%, reflecting widespread unease across global markets. This movement comes ahead of pivotal US jobs data expected to influence the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. Factory orders in Germany rose slightly but still fell short of expectations. Construction PMI in the Eurozone also declined. Markets await the release of Eurozone retail sales and US jobs data (NFP later today.

► In the US, stock futures suggest a potential recovery from Thursday's downturn in the S&P 500, even as the market absorbs Federal Reserve officials' cautious stance on rate cuts. Investor focus is shifting towards the upcoming US jobs data, anticipated to reveal an addition of over 200,000 new payrolls for March. A robust jobs report may signal the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates longer than some investors hope. However, the Fed highlighted the possibility that rate reductions might not occur this year if inflation does not significantly decelerate, underscoring the Fed's watchful approach to monetary policy adjustments. These sentiments cast a shadow over traders' expectations for rate cuts, intensifying the focus on the forthcoming jobs report and inflation data as critical indicators of the economy's health and the Fed's next moves. However, our Chief Analyst Robert Lindner believes that the current debate about whether rates will be cut in June or later this year and whether there will be one or three rate cuts is overblown - the US economy does not need rate cuts and conditions are not as the Fed would like them to be - so the Fed is likely to cut less and later than the markets expect.

► Asian markets experienced a downturn, with the region witnessing notable declines amidst regional uncertainties, including Taiwan's significant earthquake and its potential impact on semiconductor production. This nervous sentiment was further compounded by anticipation of key US economic reports and ongoing concerns over the Chinese economy's recovery momentum. China markets are closed for today for a public holiday. In Japan, the JPY showed resilience, buoyed by the Bank of Japan Governor's hints at further rate hikes, offering a glimmer of hope for currency stabilization amidst market volatility. Japan also reported a decrease in household spending.

► Commodities markets presented a mixed picture, with oil prices experiencing a surge due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, potentially affecting global supply lines. WTI Crude oil continues to trade at around $86/barrel. Gold price declined slightly however maintained its upward trajectory, trading at above $2,285/oz but experiencing some swings.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇦🇺 Balance of Trade FEB - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Factory Orders - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 HCOB Construction PMI - 07:30 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global Construction PMI - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 Retail Sales - 08:30 (released)
♦️ 🇺🇸 Non Farm Payrolls - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate - 12:30

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

No significant earnings reports today

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner