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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2374.87
TP ✅ @: 2386.97
Gold may have hit your (optional) TP. We can further widen it our TP. If the TP was triggered, you can likely find a better re-entry (2370 - 2375). Gold is now seeing ideal sentiment conditions with a market being strongly concerned about more profit taking.
While higher rates for longer and the higher yields are fundamentally headwinds for gold - investors see the long-term outlook for gold bullish - while the market is increasingly skeptical if stocks (especially Wall Street) has more than 3-5% upside for the rest of the year. Gold is now very bullish and may soon test the $2,400 again.
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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ Volatile & increased risk; 2/3 - 3/4 trade size
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
► We are seeing a very unsettled market.
► In particular, concerns that the Fed does not actually have an outlook for interest rate cuts after further strong US economic figures are now affecting sentiment again at the start of the week.
► Even if the outlook for higher interest rates for longer is actually bad for non-yielding gold, the uncertainty and fear of further profit-taking on the stock markets is very supportive for gold.
► We are buying gold here, but working with a not too loose SL. We are trading gold slightly smaller again, as we continue to see gold volatile here.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.7 (40% - 70%) when trading gold (XAU/USD) - 2/3 - 3/4 trading size.
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Meta Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸
Intel (INTC) 🇺🇸
Meta just hit SL - we can get back in soon ~$500 - $501.
You can give Alphabet a bit more room (for the SL).
Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 156.49
TP ✅ @: 159.21
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BUY NOW 🔼 Meta Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
► We are buying the sharp dip in Meta. The stock has now fallen even below $503.00, a more than 10-day low and almost 3% below today's Meta high.
► Yields, which are at a 6-month high - and remain bullish - continue to weigh on growth stocks. We also see the highest US Dollar Index since November as demand for the USD remains high amid rising expectations that the Fed does not see the conditions for rate cuts.
► Meta opened well on most days but then mostly suffered profit taking during the day as high yields put pressure on growth stocks.
► Citigroup rated Meta as a top pick and raised its price target from $525 to $590. According to Citi, Instagram Reels ad views increased by 0.9 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 20% - with a 4% increase in Instagram minutes per daily active user. This suggests that the increasing number of ads is not affecting engagement on Reels - a clear sign that AI innovations and improvements can continue to increase revenue and therefore margins for Meta, while overall engagement remains stable. A strong sign that Meta will be one of the big AI winners.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 110 - 120 (11,000% - 12,000%) when trading Meta Platforms (META).
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BUY NOW 🔼 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 💰
⚠️ HIGH volatility; Increased risk!
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
► We are buying the current dip in Bitcoin after previous significant gains. Bitcoin and other risk assets are under pressure as yields have risen sharply following further strong US economic data and markets increasingly believe that market conditions are far away from "allowing" the Fed to cut rates.
► We see bitcoin dipping to $64K (or more than 4% from today's peak) despite the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission today approving applications from leading financial institutions in Hong Kong to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.
► The approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HK SFC) comes just days ahead of the upcoming bitcoin halving, which is likely to prompt additional buying as investors expect bitcoin to get a boost from the halving.
🗣️ Tip: You can multiply your trade size by ~ 0.5 - 1.0 (50% - 100%) trading Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 Intel (INTC) 🇺🇸
Once again, we bought the recent dips instead of following the market which sold in complete panic. We expected the risk-off sentiment that led to heavy profit-taking in the previous week to subside today. The perfect prediction - we are already seeing a large part of Friday's losses recouped. We are very LONG positioned overall and our Dow Jones is now also back in profit.
🔹 Alphabet (+ 1.1%) opens significantly higher and is close to the ATH again. We set a tight TP for GOOGL TP ✅ @: 159.89 - our mega cash cow.
🔹 Chevron (+0.6%) recovers (partially) from Friday's strong profit-taking. We set our TP ✅ @: 161.98
🔹 JPMorgan (+0.5%) opens higher after Friday's heavy losses. We slightly update our SL 🔑 @: 182.43 and set a wide TP ✅ @: 188.84.
► We continue to bet on more dip buying and enter Intel again. The chip manufacturer has fallen further and is currently down almost 30% YTD. We see gains in the chip sector and general dip buying. Intel was heavily (over)sold after the company reported a heavy loss in its foundry business, which seems to take much longer to become profitable. Intel and AMD also suffered heavy losses in the China business as regulation of US chipmakers in China increases. Chinese officials apparently instructed that telecom systems should replace non-Chinese CPUs by 2027. I think Intel is attractive at the current price, especially in the long term, and also believe that chip production in the US (or outside Taiwan) will become more important - good for Intel.
► Intel should also benefit from helping to close the gap in AI chips. Intel unveiled its latest artificial intelligence chip, the Gaudi 3, last week. On paper at least, it looks very promising. Intel opens higher - at close to $36.00 and still has significant recovery potential.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 1,400 - 1,500 (140,000% - 150,000%) trading Intel (INTC).
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Once again, we are benefiting greatly from the panic in the market. We have made very strong dip purchases and getting into Intel here. DON'T MISS OUT ❌
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BUY NOW 🔼 AUD/CHF
► The AUD and other risk-sensitive currencies came under pressure last week as the market positioned itself very cautiously (=risk-off) before the weekend with warnings of an Iranian attack on Israel (which then took place).
►The AUD has also recently been under pressure from a very strong USD, which usually means headwinds for the AUD as I headwinds for commodity prices. However, commodity prices have mostly risen recently, especially for metals and some of Australia's most important exports such as coal, iron ore, gold, aluminum or copper.
► Netanyahu's five-member war cabinet came out in favor of a retaliatory strike at a meeting on Sunday, although the body disagreed on the timing and scale of such a response. President Joe Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will not engage in a counteroffensive against Iran. I think it is more likely that Israel will try to de-escalate (also under pressure from Washington) - which would lead to a further improvement in risk sentiment.
► The CHF remains on track for more weakness as inflation in Switzerland is below the SNB target, which means that the Swiss National Bank is likely to cut rates further. We expect the AUD to recover recent losses.
🗣️ Tip: You can multiply your usual trade size by ~ 1.15 - 1.25 (115% - 125%) when trading AUD/CHF.
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2354.87
TP ✅ @: 2364.33
We don't want to be too greedy here but we are further widening our TP (while tightening our SL). Congratulations - after some losses with gold - we start this week with massive gold gains.
Our DAX position already closed deep in profit.
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, April 15
❗️ European stocks rebound with return to more calm on hopes that Israel-Iran conflict may be contained
► Despite the geopolitical tensions at the weekend - which were already priced in on Friday - European equities recovered strongly and share futures rose. Investors are bracing themselves for a busy week, with data from China and inflation data from Japan, the Eurozone and the UK being published in addition to the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. Additionally, important earnings reports will be released this wee - such ASML, TSMC, Louis Vuitton, Netflix, Goldman Sachs etc.
► In the US, equity futures see a slight boost after the sharp decline last Friday. The focus shifts back to domestic affairs with the continuation of earnings season following last Friday's underwhelming bank results. Today's sessions feature major reports from Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab. US Treasury yields, however, remain elevated with investors expecting the Fed to keep rates higher-for-longer. Slight waning demand for safer assets such as bonds could bring yields down again later today.
► Asian markets struggled to find footing, generally closing in the red. Notably, the People's Bank of China maintained its loan rates, indicating a steady approach amidst China's expected quarterly growth data release this week. Meanwhile, Japanese machinery orders for February provided a positive note, surpassing expectations and hinting at potential capital expenditure growth.
► Oil prices dropped to $84.6/barrel, with Iran signaling an end to its attacks and the US advocating for restraint, calming market fears. Meanwhile, metals like aluminum and nickel surged due to new sanctions on Russian exports, adding another layer to the global economic landscape. Gold rebounded after a very sharp profit taking on Friday. Gold is trading above $2,350/oz, reflecting ongoing market caution amidst fluctuating geopolitical and economic conditions. Our chief analyst Robert Lindner sees gold now more vulnerable for short-term profit taking. This week's commodity trading will likely remain volatile as the global community keeps a watchful eye on the Middle East and sanctions impacts.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇪🇺 Industrial Production - 09:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Retail Sales - 12:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ Goldman Sachs (GS) 🇺🇸
☀️ Charles Schwab (SCHW) 🇺🇸
☀️ M&T Bank (MTB) 🇺🇸
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2343.47
TP ✅ @: 2361.70
Gold opened much higher following Iran's attack on Israel after falling nearly $100 on Friday. According to Israel, 99% of the barrage was shot down and no Israelis were killed after Iran had signaled for days it was coming.
I see that many of you closed much earlier today - deep in profit - congratulations. There was profit taking again as traders felt that Iran's reaction and rhetoric could have been even worse. We don't see a big shift towards safety, oil for example continued to slide (and hit our SL).
Gold first found temporary support at $2,350, but broke through it. We are thus now setting a tight SL.
✅ 10.4 - NZD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 0.60356)
✅ 10.4 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 17941.20)
✅ 10.4 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2332.56)
✅ 10.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18169.70)
✅ 10.4 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 157.37| or closed ~157.75)
✅ 10.4 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 519.43)
✅ 10.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18069.30)
✅ 10.4 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2334.16 |or CLOSE 2331 - 2340)
✅ 10.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2343.29 |or TP 2340.37 (opt))
✅ 10.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18143.70) 🔄
✅ 10.4 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 195.87)
✅ 10.4 - META - LONG ↗️ (SL - 519.93) 🔄
✅ 10.4 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 162.63) 🔄
13/13 = 100% Success Rate 🏆
We made 13 trades on the the most chaotic day this year (so far) - or maybe only the second most chaotic day after today's session 🤪 - (what a week!) ... On that day in which the US CPI data completely shocked the markets we won 100% of our trades as well as all the trades going into the US CPI data. Something that likely no other short-term trader achieved - congratulations again! 👏
With the DAX, META and CVX we close the last three open trades from Wednesday in profit today.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot price)
SL 🔑 @: 84.290
TP ✅ @: 86.647
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2337.49 (or wider)
TP ✅ @: 2389.70
We have (finally) found the perfect entry point into gold, but have not now seen the rebound that might have been expected given the ongoing concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions.
You can set an in-profit SL here or maintain a wider SL. If the situation in the Middle East eases (which is unlikely), gold could trade significantly lower on Monday (perhaps below the SL). If the tensions intensify (the market has not priced it in at the end) we will see a massive rise in gold.
Oil will behave similarly, but has also been heavily pressured today by a sharp deterioration in market sentiment and falling equities. I still see oil bullish, but our re-entry is out of the money. We can work with SL here. If it is triggered on Monday, we can find a better re-entry. Concerns that Iran might attack Israel have surprisingly receded as Iranian intelligence may believe the US was behind the attack on its embassy in Syria (or at least assisted Israel in the bombing).
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
SL 🔑 @: 17793.30 <- corrected
TP ✅ @: 18089.70 (optional)
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 37836.70
TP ✅ @: 38373.30
The DAX is little change but we set a SL in case we see weak opening in Asia on Monday. However, with Iran likely not making a major move - a rebound seems more likely after today's sharp losses which were driven by the heavy profit taking in New York. If the geopolitical situation, however, worsens - we could see more than 400+ points of losses - so a SL makes sense here.
We also want to take our Dow Jones (which is deep off-profit) into the next week and widen our SL here slightly by ~40 points.
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
► The problem with insider knowledge is that the entire market cannot react to it. We have now seen a massive reaction that has caused massive losses for many short-term traders - especially the gold FOMO buyers.
► We now see gold back near $2360 - erasing more than all daily gains. We enter gold here and expect FOMO to return soon.
► Gold remains strongly sentiment driven, but after reaching $2,430 today - the room to the upside is easier for gold. We are still at the beginning of the second half of the US trading session.
► We are aware of how much the market is driven by sentiment. Iran has no easy options. I don't think they will attack Israel if Iranian intelligence believes that the US (or in combination with Israel) attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria and not Israel alone.
► But with news outlets around the world still reporting the high risk of an Iranian attack, we will likely see a second wave of flight to safety. Let's get in here.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
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⚡️ RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
STAY LONG / BUY NOW 🔼 JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 182.29
► We see strong profit-taking on Wall Street and a flight to safety. Gold is up another $30.00 - and remains very hot and nearly 100% sentiment driven. We continue to watch gold here - but it is very volatile and disconnected from fundamentals - please be aware of this. The risk of rapid profit taking is very high (!)
► We buy the "dip" in (VIP ONLY), back to $(VIP ONLY) well below (VIP ONLY). We (VIP ONLY), which has only gained 0.1% to 0.15% on the day, even though (VIP ONLY) has risen by almost (VIP ONLY)% (VIP ONLY)
► We are also buying the additional heavy selling in JPM - which lost another 2.5% after the open and is now down almost 6%. We expect support at $184.00 - which is already below the March lows. We are working with an SL here. If we are hit, we re-enter JPMorgan in the 178.50 - 180.00 range. JPMorgan is heavily oversold here after an overall strong Q1 report.
► We are also watching other stocks for possible dip buys - such as Meta. We remain LONG in Alphabet.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~300 - 320 (30.000% - 32.000%) and trade JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 37694.30
TP ✅ @: 38148.70
We are not great positioned in this nervous market - especially 90 minutes before NYSE closing. We see support for the Dow Jones in the range 37750 - 37800 which is why we widen our SL a bit. We see oversold conditions and have not ideal entries / should have closed earlier.
Sorry - update may have been slightly too late. If your position hit SL - stay out.
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STAY LONG / BUY NOW* 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 37738.90
TP ✅ @: 38148.70
► We are now seeing more profit-taking as markets are increasingly concerned about the prospects of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
► We are now buying the deeper dip on Wall Street with the Dow Jones (at slightly below / at 37800*). Selling accelerated after both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 fell below key levels. (18000 for the Nasdaq // 5100 for the S&P 500).
► The selling here went far and could accelerate further. However, we see selling again due to strong US economic data (retail sales).
► We have also set an SL for our DAX position (but not too tight) at SL 🔑 @: 17918.70. The European indices are now falling in sympathy with Wall Street in after-hours trading. Alphabet and Intel (in-profit) also hit their SLs.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
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🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Meta Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 503.93
TP ✅ @: 514.63
Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 514.63
TP ✅ @: 156.94
Intel (INTC) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 36.34
TP ✅ @: 38.93
We found the perfect entry into Meta - which made the turn-around at $503. We can now set an in-profit SL. We also secure profits with Intel - one of the top performers at Wall Street today - at currently +2.3% up for the day.
We also tighten the TP for Alphabet, which was earlier well in profit for us but did not hit our TP.
We are very LONG positioned - we thus want to reduce our overall exposure to further rising yields.
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BUY NOW 🔼 DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
► The renewed profit-taking in New York also led to a fall in the DAX (after a strong rebound earlier today).
► Yields on US Treasuries reached a new 6-month high, as the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to be in a hurry to cut interest rates. US retail sales were significantly stronger than expected (+0.7% MoM vs. +0.3% expected) and once again showed how strong the US consumer is. As the US economy is still growing at a rapid pace and there is little sign of a slowdown, it is very unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates - which in turn would increase the risk of inflation accelerating again.
► ECB rate expectations, on the other hand, remain intact - but as always, the market believes that the ECB will try not to get far ahead of the Fed in easing financial conditions.
► We re-enter the DAX, which has slipped back to 18030.
► We closed our DAX LONG earlier today (✅ @: 18148.90) - more than 100 points above the current DAX price. The DAX even rose further earlier to over 18250.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the DAX (GER_40)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———
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🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
► We closed both our index trades with a profit today as our Dow Jones also triggered our very well-placed TP before the Dow Jones slipped 350 points again - mainly under pressure from Salesforce, which is trading 5% lower today following reports that the company is in talks to buy software company Informatica. The purchase would entail considerable costs for Salesforce. In addition, the market is of the opinion that Salesforce is likely to pay a premium for Informatica.
► Salesforce appears to be oversold. Share prices also slipped in New York as yields continued to rise sharply following further good US economic data.
► Retail sales rose by 0.7% in March compared to the previous month, providing the latest indication that US consumers remain strong. As a result, rate cut expectations continue to fall, which is why we are currently seeing some headwinds (and a stronger USD) despite further signs of a strong US economy.
► We buy the dip in the Dow Jones and can re-enter more than 300 points below our triggered TP. We expect support in the range 38030 - 38070 - although the Dow Jones could also test the 38000 again. Additional support we may see due to the Nasdaq trading near 18000.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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📸:
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 38373.30
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
TP triggered ✅ @: 18148.90
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL triggered 🔑 @: 2354.97
📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈
‼️ Hope that diplomatic efforts can contain Iran-Israel conflict reduces risk premium
Global markets calmed somewhat at the start of the week as analysts eased concerns that international diplomatic efforts could further escalate the Iran-Israel stand-off. Stocks in Europe and the US rebounded after another round of heavy selling on Friday, triggered by concerns that the situation in the Middle East could escalate further.
We also see financials recovering, supported by a strong earnings report from investment bank Goldman Sachs in pre-market trading after the Wall Street giant posted a surprise jump in profits. We see markets reducing current risk premiums for equities, although the situation in the Middle East remains volatile after Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones over the weekend. We are also seeing the reduction in the risk premium in oil and safe-haven gold, both of which are trading well below last week's highs. Defense contractors are outperforming other industries in pre-market US / European trading.
The Iranian attack on Israel - a direct attack - while unprecedented, caused little damage and caused no casualties as almost all projectiles were intercepted. The US, British and French air forces also assisted Israel in intercepting the missiles.
We have an eventful week ahead with lots of inflation data (US, UK, Italy, Canada, Japan), Chinese growth data and further earnings reports - including from the chip industry (ASML, TSMC).
We are positioned for a rebound and have already taken home a large profit with our DAX LONG. I expect risk assets to (partially) recover from recent losses and end today's trading day in the green.
👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
April 15, 2024
🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️
Financial Stocks ↗️ (rebounding from Friday's losses)
Defensive Stocks ↗️/➡️
Energy Stocks ↗️/➡️
Materials Stocks ↗️
💱 Forex
AUD ↗️ (USD to remain in demand; more safe haven USD demand before weekend)
GBP, CAD ↗️/➡️
EUR ↗️/➡️ (slightly rebounding after last week's sharp losses)
USD ➡️
CHF ↘️/➡️
JPY ↘️/➡️ (after sharp losses already, mostly sideways for today)
⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️
Oil prices ↘️/➡️ (slight headwinds first due to lower risk-premium; Oil overall remains bullish)
Natural Gas prices ↘️
Metal prices ↗️
Gold ↗️/↕️ (gold to remain overall bullish - but higher risk of profit taking)
⚡️Cryptos ↘️/↗️/↕️ (with short-term rebound potential after recent losses)
(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
⚠️ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2354.97
TP ✅ @: 2359.72
We are tightening our TP for our gold position again and believe that we can find a better re-entry if our SP or (now tightened) TP is triggered. We generally see an improving risk sentiment - that slightly weighs on gold. We also see yields significantly (further) up - we want to close our gold position soon / now.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2353.17
TP ✅ @: 2362.47
Gold rebounded further and is trading back at $2,360.
We are tightening our SL and can slightly widen the TP.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 37987.70
TP ✅ @: 38373.30
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 18140+ (area)
or
SL 🔑 @: 18107.70
TP ✅ @: 18148.90
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2345.73
TP ✅ @: 2361.70
We made a crazy trade with the DAX on Friday completely against the panic selling market and found the near perfect entry. Your optional TP (18089.70) may have already been triggered - if not, we will close now or set a tight TP. We want to take our DAX home with a mega profit - congratulations!
We also tighten the SL on our Dow Jones - which has also started a rebound after an attack by Iran, which is not seen as "bad enough" to start an all-out war.
We can further strengthen the SL of our gold position. Gold was able to recover above $2,350, but remains vulnerable to profit-taking for the time being.
———
Perfect timing with the DAX dip purchase. 💯🎯
🇩🇪📉❌🚀
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
✅ 11.4 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 85.147)
(✅) 11.4 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 85.387; no regular signal)
✅ 11.4 - CRM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 299.43)
✅ 11.4 - ABNB - LONG ↗️ (TP - 162.87)
✅ 11.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 38414.70)
✅ 11.4 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 161.97)
❌ 11.4 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (CLSD - 2392.44|or SL - 2397.67) 🔄
5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate
✅ 12.4 - USOIL - LONG ↗️
✴️ 12.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 37836.70 // TP ✅ @: 38373.30
✅ 12.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️
✴️ 12.4 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit + Re-Entry)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 182.29
✴️ 12.4 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✴️ 12.4 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 84.290 // TP ✅ @: 86.647
✴️ 12.4 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
❌ 12.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2349.73| or SL - 2354.87)
✴️ 12.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 17793.30 // TP ✅ @: 18089.70 (optional)
✴️(✅) 12.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - SL in Profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2337.49 (or wider) // TP ✅ @: 2389.70
3/10 - (7 open positions)
Chaotic day in which at least we didn't fall too much into the volatility/swing traps that caused sharp losses for many short-term traders today. We are taking a little too many open positions into the weekend - but we did see an overselling on Wall Street that will hopefully stabilize on Monday (depending heavily on what happens in the Middle East region).
Nevertheless, we look back on a very positive (but exhausting) week.
All the best!
Your Robert + Team 🤝
PS: We received a lot of great & lovely feedback this week - thank you for sharing and enjoy your profits! We will continue to improve your SmartTrader experience. You are also welcome to send feedback or your thoughts to feedback@smarttrader.community.
Overview last 19 trading days:
✅ Performance: 15.03 - 05.04
84/102 = 82.4% Success Rate
✅ 8.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 38988.70)
✅ 8.4 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2320.26)
✅ 8.4 - AMD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 170.49)
✅ 8.4 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 173.03)
✅ 8.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2337.87)
✅ 8.4 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 161.69)
6/6 = 100% Success Rate
✅ 9.4 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2351.68)
❌ 9.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 38744.70)
✅ 9.4 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 196.77)
✅ 9.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2348.67 & TP2 - 2359.87)
✅ 9.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 38744.70)
✅ 9.4 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 156.33)
5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate
*no update*
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ Very volatile & increased risk; 2/3 - 3/4 trade size
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
► We are now into the final hour of trading this week. Gold is trading at $2,335 or almost $100/oz below today's high or 1.7% lower - that's massive swings and a very sharp drop after the recent overbuying, which were mainly due to sentiment. The strong gains came despite the fact that rate cut expectations have fallen to 2024 lows and yields to 5-month highs.
► Slightly lower fears that Iran could make a significant move in Israel triggered a sharp drop as well as profit taking, which then led to a LONG squeeze and panicked profit taking. The profit-taking has now spread to New York - actually good for Safe Haven Gold.
► We still see a lot of uncertainty and a sharp drop in equity markets as investors also take into account Jamie Dimon's warnings and potentially lower interest gains, with Dimon also warning of major inflation risks. JPMorgan has maintained its net interest income forecast of around $90 billion (for the full year), unchanged from its last forecast - and below analysts' expectations of $92 - $93 billion. The heavy losses at JPM have weighed heavily on the markets today - I see overselling here.
► Dimon's warning that inflation may remain a problem for much longer and that the Fed may raise rates much further (even up to 8%) has also weighed on gold.
► We are getting back into gold, here in the $2,330 - $2,335 range. We are trading somewhat smaller than usual in view of the mega-volatility and are again working with an SL (not too tight).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.7 (40% - 70%) when trading gold (XAU/USD) - 2/3 - 3/4 trading size.
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
———
PS: Our previous gold position closed in our relatively tight SL at 2354.87 or 2349.73 (updated in VIP Channel). If you are still in you can stay LONG.
🥇2️⃣3️⃣3️⃣4️⃣🔼
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🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
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BUY NOW* 🔼 DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
► We see a strong correction in New York, which has also dragged down other markets (in after-hours trading). The Nasdaq falls by almost 2%, but finds some support at 18000. The Dow Jones is down 1.2% but finds more support near 38000.
► The French CAC is also at an important level (8000) and the DAX could not hold 18000 but seems to find support after being pulled down from losses in New York near / at 17900*. We want to get back into the DAX.
► We have already made a profitable short term LONG trade in the DAX today (we bought a much higher dip) and closed in the SL at 18049.30 - more than 100 points above the current price.
► The CEO of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, spoke of many uncertainties. Lower interest rates in the future and therefore lower interest income with high economic uncertainties. He also cited global conflicts, persistent inflationary pressure and bond buybacks by central banks as problematic - a much less optimistic Dimon than in previous quarters. I see JPMorgan as oversold and panic buying exacerbated by recent economic data, geopolitical tensions and a lot of uncertainty. Add to that typical Friday selling.
► Nevertheless, we are buying the heavily sold-off DAX here and setting the SL for our Dow Jones position to the daily low - SL 🔑 37879.70.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the DAX (GER_40)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
———
🇩🇪📉📉📉❌
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
The price of gold / as well as other assets that react to geopolitical tensions have experienced violent price movements.
The reason for this is complicated. A source of mine in Washington and New York both said that Iranian intelligence potentially believes that the US, not Israel, may be behind the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria. Of course, that changes almost everything, because Iran would not attack US targets and a "retaliation" against Israel would make less sense now.
This is also another example of why it is very dangerous to get involved in purely sentiment driven assets/markets as sentiment can change quickly.
We continue to monitor the markets but have now noticed a sudden improvement in risk sentiment which has also helped our positioning.
PS: Sorry for being cryptic here - you also don't read anything like this (yet) on CNN, Bloomberg or CNBC etc. - this is still "insider" knowledge - which however has always immediate impact on markets
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 WTI (USOIL) 🛢
► Our WTI position reached the TP earlier - with a mega profit. WTI then rose further to $87.00/barrel (spot price; or $87.50 for the May futures contract) and then hit (short-term) resistance. We expect oil prices to continue to rise as we continue to see large risk-off trades as the market fears that Iran's possible attack on targets in Israel could be the next escalation in the Middle East.
► We now see WTI back at ~86.60 (or ~$87.20 if you're trading the May futures contract) - that's where we're getting back in.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%)* trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - [VT Markets / PU Prime / Markets / Libertex] *multiply by 10 when trading at Admiral Market / Markets WebTrader / *multiply by 1000 when trading at Tickmill.
⚠️ The May-Futures Contract is currently ~$0.50 above the spot price.
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 35+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
———
🛢🔥🚀
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