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BUY NOW ๐ผ ExxonMobil (XOM) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ We are seeing the strong performance and recovery in stocks that we predicted when the market was selling in panic. We were unlucky that Friday's sentiment caused additional sharp panic selling - all of our dip purchases would be now very deep in profit with the market again following our analysis & fundamentals. Our Alphabet position from today and all of our recent index LONGs have closed in profit. Salesforce is back in profit after some initial selling.
โบ The gains are particularly strong in the growth sector, where most of the selling has taken place.
โบ Shares have also benefited greatly from the fact that manufacturing activity in the US hit a four-month low of 49.9 in March. A reading below 50 indicates that activity is shrinking. This raised hopes of interest rate cuts later this year and caused the USD to give back some of its recent strong gains. Positive for the markets.
โบ The weaker USD and hopes of interest rate cuts have also driven up oil and commodity prices significantly. We traded the slump in oil prices almost perfectly today and closed our WTI LONG with a large profit. Oil prices continued to rise and are now almost 1.5 % higher than the previous day.
โบThe energy sector remains a strong underperformer today. ExxonMobil is trading only 0.2% higher (currently at ~120.80) and meets resistance at $121.00 for now. We expect the energy sector to be able to recoup some of the recent losses due to lower energy prices and concerns about a prolonged rate hike.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 500 - 530 (50,000% - 53,000%) trading ExxonMobil (XOM).
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2319.44
TP โ
@: 2334.47
We are securing our gold position but expect further gains towards the end of today's regular US session.
We have been unlucky with non-fundamental, sentiment-driven additional selling in gold (and our too-tight SL). However, the selling in gold was historic - with the biggest one-day loss in more than two years (it takes moves like this - for us to lose a gold trade). Many of you are still holding yesterday's position(s) - we expect them to return to profit.
โโโ
๐ฅ๐2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 38449.90
TP โ
@: 38507.30
We secure again nice profits with the Dow Jones and work with a tight SL & TP. We may see some more cautious trading in the second half of US trading that could lead to some profit taking after solid gains today.
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 157.43
TP โ
@: 158.48
Salesforce (CRM) ๐บ๐ธ
TP โ
@: 275.49 (*optional)
Our Alphabet profits over the last weeks / months remain absurd. We continue to buy dip and a potential short-term underperformance of the tech giant. We now secure profits.
Salesforce is now rebounding and trades flat again - which also pushed the Dow Jones to now 38500 and our re-entry again well in profit.
Our WTI position just hit TP.
โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค
๐ค๐ค๐ค
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
WTI (USOIL) ๐ข (spot)
SL ๐ @: 81.534
TP โ
@: 82.174
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
TP โ
@: 158.48 (optional)
Our Dow Jones position closed deep in profit with our perfectly set TP โ
@: 38469.70 before falling 40 points again. We still see market sentiment positive. We also secure profits with our WTI position which found support below $81.00 as we expected. We work with a tight TP.
Also Alphabet is well in profit - you can set a tight TP.
๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ Europe, Asia higher; Wall Street wavers ahead of big tech earnings; Next Tesla
Europe is extending its gains and Asian markets are also closing higher. Wall Street rebounded on Monday after the recent $2 trillion sell-off. Hopes that the recovery will continue depend on whether big tech companies can justify their recent gains, which have been triggered by the AI boom.
Initial results on Tuesday were largely positive, with German software giant SAP, pharmaceutical giant Novartis and car manufacturers Renault and General Motors all making gains. United Parcel Service and Lockheed Martin also rose in pre-market trading after increasing their profits. PepsiCo slipped after announcing falling sales in North America, and MSCI and Philip Morris were also among the losers.
However, the big reports are still to come in the next few days, with the focus on the mega caps. Tesla is the first of the formerly important "Magnificent Seven" to report after the close today - but given its recent losses, it will not be as important to a potential Wall Street recovery as Meta Platforms on Wednesday, followed by Microsoft and Alphabet on Thursday.
Some 180 companies, accounting for more than 40% of the S&P 500's market value, report this week. I expect a disappointing report from Tesla, but good reports from Meta and Alphabet, as well as Microsoft at least meeting expectations. I also expect solid forecasts, which will help to prolong the recovery.
Economic data from the Eurozone has improved and private sector activity is at its highest level in almost a year, driven by a buoyant service sector and the return of growth in Germany. If there are no economic surprises, an ECB rate cut in June remains likely, which will further boost European equities.
Gold extended its losses after its biggest one-day fall in almost two years as easing tensions in the Middle East and signs that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer dampened demand. Gold is in oversold territory but is vulnerable to profit taking. Oil prices have also fallen - we expect oil prices to rise again.
Markets remain sideways for now and are cautious ahead of Big Tech earnings - a more cautious environment should help gold to a temporary bounce. Cyclical stocks are benefiting from solid earnings reports, while the technology sector still has room for recovery as investors are likely to continue buying up the recent declines.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
April 23, 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โก๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Financial Stocks โก๏ธ
Defensive Stocks โก๏ธ
Energy Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Materials Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
๐ฑ Forex
GBP, EUR, AUD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (benefiting from recent slide)
USD, CAD โก๏ธ
CHF โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
JPY โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (remains bearish but will likely see limited losses ahead of BoJ monetary policy outlook)
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ
Oil prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (temporary slide - will find increasing support below $81.00/barrel (WTI))
Natural Gas prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Metal prices โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (metal prices to stabilize, remaining bullish)
Gold โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (likely to rebound slightly and see dip buying near $2,300)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ (remains volatile - searching for more guidance)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
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BUY NOW ๐ผ Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ After a rough week and a half, we are seeing a recovery ahead of big tech earnings. Tesla's likely disappointing earnings report is largely already priced in and is therefore providing a limited headwind today. The deterioration in iPhone sales in China, which posted the worst quarter since 2020 with a 19% decline, weighs more heavily, but we continue to see an improvement in market sentiment.
โบ Earnings reports from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta will be very important to determine whether Wall Street can recover significantly, with tech companies driving stocks higher.
โบ Strong earnings from pharma giant Novartis and Renault and an overall improving market sentiment, as well as solid gains in Europe but also in China, with tech stocks in Hong Kong gaining significantly, will also help Wall Street to rise further today. We see tech stocks with more recovery potential and the energy sector cheap. We also see a slightly weaker USD and stable yields providing little headwind to the ongoing recovery.
โบ The Dow Jones will try to reach 38500 today after reversing slightly ahead of this level yesterday.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
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โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค
3๏ธโฃ8๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โ
19.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2382.87)
โ
19.4 - USOIL - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 82.177)
โ 19.4 - NFLX - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 546.47)
โ 19.4 - META - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 481.43 |Re-Entry in-profit)
โ
19.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2395.77)
โ 19.4 - NVDA - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 763.97|Re-Entry in-profit)
โ
19.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 17197.3)
4/7= 57.1% Success Rate
โด๏ธโ
22.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG โ๏ธ (SL in profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 99.759 // TP โ
@: 99.983
โ
22.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 156.89)
โ
22.4 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 38088.30)
โ
22.4 - NAS100- LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 17109.40)
โด๏ธ 22.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit|+Re-Entry)
๐ SL ๐ @: 2318.34 // TP โ
@: 2337.73
โ
22.4 - META - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 484.83)
โด๏ธ 22.4 - TSLA - SHORT โ๏ธ (open - break-even)
5/7 - (3 open positions)
We anticipated today's market very well (already on Friday), but were unlucky with the first wave of profit-taking after the positive NYSE opening - we should have worked with wider SLs here. Trading with narrower SLs logically also means more SL triggers. It is nevertheless unfortunate as NFLX, META and NVDA rallied strongly again (we successfully traded META's rebound again - at least). We made good trades today. The entry in gold was not perfect - but the price slide was so strong that it was difficult to hit the dip here very accurately - gold is still a bit too hot and sentiment-driven. Gold as well as oil will remain bullish in the coming weeks.
Enjoy your evening,
Robert
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2318.34 (or wider)
TP โ
@: 2337.73
AUD/JPY
SL ๐ @: 99.759
TP โ
@: 99.983
We have found a good entry in AUD/JPY today and are setting a tight SL & TP - with the pair likely to hit resistance at 100,000. We want to work with a winning SL as any hawkish rhetoric or signs of yen buying by Tokyo would lead to a near-term rebound in JPY - which remains weak. Investors could also expect hawkish rhetoric at the end of the week during the BoJ rate decision/press conference. However, I don't think the JPY will benefit from the Bank of Japan's rate decision. The central bank will probably say that it is willing to support the JPY (to protect itself from "JPY speculation" or something similar), but will not follow up with any action other than words.
We are also slightly updating our gold position. We are tightening our TP and setting the SL a few cents lower. Gold is oversold in the short term and we have seen some profit taking at the end of regular US trading - but if the positive handover leads to gains in Asia, we could see a further slight decline in gold. You can also go with a wider SL - as we can expect gold to rally soon - but if our SL is triggered, we can also find a better entry price.
โโโ
๐ด๐โ
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STAY LONG / BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โ ๏ธ Volatile
SL ๐ @: 2318.48
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
โบ We saw a very strong rebound in equities, which we had already predicted on Friday, after profit-taking initially returned. Our positions in Alphabet and Meta triggered TP and rose even further. Wall Street futures are up more than 1.2% with Nvidia / Big-Tech leading the gains.
โบ The strong improvement in risk sentiment has also led to more gold selling. We are now improving our average entry at near $2,325 but also working with a tight SL. However, the rebound is now so strong in equities that the risk of another wave of profit-taking is increasing.
โบ Gold initially found support near $2,330 and rose to near $2,345 before falling further to a multi-week low.
โบ We now see short-term oversold conditions, increasing the chance of dip buying after gold fell from today's highs around $75/oz.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
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โโโ
๐ฅ2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ2๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ๐
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 17109.40
TP โ
@: 17177.30
Our TP was almost triggered.
We are tightening our SL here as we see signs of resistance. We widen out TP. If dip buying continues / returns, the next spike will be higher.
โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 17094.70
TP โ
@: 17163.70
We secure more profits with indices. Our Nasdaq position(s) from Friday closed at 17197.30 before profit taking kicked in. Our Re-entry is now well in profit. We set an in-profit SL now.
โโโ
๐๐ฏ๐ต
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BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โ ๏ธ Volatile
โบ We see the gold price 2% lower for the day. After the markets reduced the risk premium, the gold price fell sharply today, as we had expected on Friday.
โบ However, we continue to see a nervous market overall - which is still a good market sentiment environment for gold.
โบ Profit-taking went a long way here. Gold remains very volatile. Even if geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, gold remains attractive. We are buying the sharp slump and expect gold to recoup some of the heavy losses.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
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BUY NOW ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ We set the absolutely perfect TP for our Nasdaq 100 position. The Nasdaq hit resistance at 17200, triggered our TP, and then slid almost 150 points lower.
โบ We continue to see rebound potential and also see that returns have reduced earlier stronger gains again somewhat.
โบ Nvidia's strong gains (over 3%) in particular initially boosted the Nasdaq 100.
โบ We are now seeing strong profit-taking in Nvidia, which even led to our position hitting our tightened SL. Further losses in Netflix (our SL was triggered), but also Tesla caused a slight slump. Meta also (unfortunately) gave up most of its gains, resulting in our tightened SL being triggered - with our original entry ending out of profit and our re-entry ending in profit. The return of the profit-taking wave hit our open positions here, showing that the market remains cautious as expected.
โบ We need to increase our caution and be less positioned in growth stocks, which are prone to rapid profit-taking. We are (VIP ONLY), which is now trading at session lows (near (VIP ONLY)).
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
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โโโ-
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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS ๐ผ Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
We kept a cool head on Friday and made the right calls, understanding that we were seeing sentiment-driven selling and that the markets were likely to rebound on Monday.
๐น Nasdaq 100 (+0.7%) - you can keep your SL and TP or pull the SL into profitable territory. We will see a bit more volatility during the NYSE open, which will likely be enough to push our Nasdaq 100 LONG into our TP.
๐น Meta (+ 1.8%) rallies massively as expected and opens at around $490.00. Our re-entry is extremely deep in profit. We have a TP at 499.97 and tighten our SL ๐ 481.43. Mizuho calls the meta the "TOP PICK".
๐น Netflix (- 0.4%) opens little changed in view of the massive movements on Friday. Our position was already extremely deep in profit on Friday, but we were unable to lock in the gains. We set a tighter TP โ
@: 563.78
๐น Nvidia (+ 1.7 %) opened significantly higher after the share suffered heavy sentiment-related losses on Friday. Similar to Netflix, our position was already very deep in profit, but we were surprised by the very strong flight to safety that hit Nvidia in particular. We expect Nvidia to remain volatile. We tighten our SL ๐ 763.97. Morgan Stanley remains optimistic and reiterates its "OVERWEIGHT" rating.
๐ธ Salesforce (+ 4.0%) opens massively higher - but maybe your position is already closed in the SL. If not, then your TP will probably be triggered - if set. We made a great dip buy but were unlucky with Friday's heavy panic selling. If you're still in, set a tight SL and TP and secure a big profit overall TP โ
@: 281.73 / SL ๐ 279.77.
โบ We are already very well positioned and are seeing the rebound movement that we expected. Nevertheless, investors remain relatively cautious overall ahead of a busy week of key earnings and economic data, including the US PCE - the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
โบ Amazon suffered very heavy losses last week and is likely to start a recovery move today and ahead of next week's earnings report. We will see similar moves in the other big tech companies. However, Amazon is already 1.2% higher for today driven by positive analyst calls, so we will wait to see the moves after the NYSE opens. We buy the dip in Alphabet - our cash cow - at the NYSE open as the tech giant, unlike the other big tech companies, only opens flat at near $154.00. We see significant upside potential here and therefore buy the GOOGL dip again.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 380 - 410 (38,000% - 41,000%) when trading Alphabet (GOOGL).
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โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค
1๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ4๏ธโฃ๐๐๐
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2323.63
TP โ
@: 2334.47
Gold rises back above $2,330. We keep our TP and tighten our SL.
โโโ-
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Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ #1๏ธโฃ
TP โ
triggered @: 38469.70 ๐ธ
Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ #2๏ธโฃ
SL ๐ @: 38449.90
TP โ
@: 38507.30
...currently still open - but not for long...
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โบ We should have bought the dip earlier - especially when gold was trading below $2,300. If you are still LONG - stay LONG - we expect gold to find more support again towards the NYSE close as the market becomes more concerned again about the upcoming earnings reports - which is likely to disappoint from Tesla.
โบ We are now seeing a short dip to $2,315 after gold had previously risen back above $2,330 - we are taking advantage of this mini dip.
โบ Gold recorded its sharpest one-day decline in more than 2 years yesterday. Gold is in short-term oversold territory and faced headwinds from diminishing concerns about an escalation in the Middle East and from investors pushing back into riskier assets - especially growth stocks, which have been sold off heavily recently.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
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BUY NOW ๐ผ Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ Our Dow Jones TP was set perfectly. We can now re-enter the 30-stock average, which is almost 80 - 100 points below our triggered TP (38469.70) at currently 38370 - 38400.
โบ The Dow Jones is slightly underperforming the other US stock futures due to losses in UnitedHealth, Salesforce (we expect a rebound), Chevron, Coca-Cola (due to PepsiCo's weak report), as well as Walmart.
โบ For now, we continue to see a cautiously optimistic market. Tesla is also trading higher (we remain SHORT) and will probably give back the current gains - so it is positive for this trade that Tesla is not part of the Dow Jones.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐๐ฏ๐
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS ๐ผ Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
We want to hold a limited number of equity positions as we continue to see a sentiment-driven market. At the moment, we see investors continuing to buy the recent price losses ahead of big tech earnings numbers.
๐น Dow Jones (+0.35%) as well as the other US futures may move back towards yesterday's highs. We set a tight TP for our Dow Jones position, which is currently well in profit. TP โ
@: 38469.70.
๐น Tesla (+0.9%) opens higher for now after recent heavy losses, but investors are likely to get nervous ahead of Tesla's earnings report after shares have fallen sharply recently following earnings reports. Barclays also remains skeptical after betting too long on Tesla and reiterates its recent "equal weight" rating. Tesla benefits from strong earnings reports from GM and Renault and gains - but will most likely not be able to deliver a good report as well.
โบ We see further recovery potential in (VIP ONLY), which opened very strongly yesterday but is again struggling with profit-taking. We see an almost flat opening today ($(VIP ONLY)) - slight selling could then occur before (VIP ONLY) can rise again. After the recent sharp correction, which was mainly triggered by (VIP ONLY). According to (VIP ONLY) had been discussing (VIP ONLY) - but talks between the two sides had stalled and (VIP ONLY). However, (VIP ONLY)in reaction to the(VIP ONLY) still largely in place. We continue to buy the "dip".
โบ We also want to profit again from a strong performance by Alphabet and find a price below yesterday's highs at near (below) $157.00 (GOOGL). I expect investors to be optimistic about Alphabet's earnings report and that the tech giant will report solid revenue and margin improvement in particular. Alphabet will be one of the big AI winners and is still attractively valuated.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 380 - 410 (38,000% - 41,000%) when trading Alphabet (GOOGL)
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
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BUY NOW ๐ผ WTI (USOIL) ๐ข (spot)
โบ We are again buying the dip in WTI spot to now below $81.00 ($81.10 June Contract), which has fallen by nearly $2/barrel in the last ~3+ hours for no good fundamental reason, but because concerns about escalation in the Middle East have eased further and the risk premium has fallen further (which is also clearly reflected in gold's slide).
โบ Economic activity in the Eurozone grew at its fastest pace in almost a year this month, led by a recovery in the eurozone's dominant services sector. French manufacturing disappointed somewhat, but German manufacturing outperformed expectations, recovering from a low base. The FTSE 100 opened at a new record high. We see a significant improvement in sentiment - also after good earnings reports from Novartis, Renault and GM.
โบ Sentiment also improved in Asia: China and Japan picked up - especially the risk-sensitive Hong Kong shares rose (strongly).
โบ Europe and the US will impose new sanctions against Iranian oil exports, targeting ships, ports and refineries that process Iranian oil - even if the impact on oil prices will be limited, the outlook for oil demand as a whole is rising - the market points to more tightening.
โบ Fears that interest rates will rise for longer are also unlikely to create additional headwinds for oil prices, as this is already priced in.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%)* trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - [VT Markets / PU Prime / Markets / Libertex] *multiply by 10 when trading at Admiral Market / Markets WebTrader / *multiply by 1000 when trading at Tickmill. โ ๏ธ The June-Futures Contract is currently ~$0.30 above the spot price.
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap ๐
๐ Tuesday, April 23
โ๏ธ European stocks continue to rise ahead of upcoming earnings from big tech companies
โบ European equity futures climbed, with the Euro Stoxx 600 advancing by 0.5% driven by strong earnings from Novartis and Renault. Novartis raised its full-year revenue and operating income forecasts as key drugs exceeded sales expectations. Renault reported robust first-quarter sales, buoyed by strong demand for its latest models. The London FTSE 100 (+0.35%) hit an all-time high, buoyed by optimism around corporate developments and anticipated rate cuts by the Bank of England. The positive sentiment was mirrored across other European indices, including Germany's DAX (+0.6%) and France's CAC (+0.35%), which were supported by favorable flash PMI readings, suggesting resilience in the business sector despite ongoing economic pressures.
โบ In the U.S., stock futures rose slightly as markets digest the potential implications of a busy earnings week. Investors are poised for reports from about 180 companies that constitute over 40% of the S&P 500's market value. This earnings season is particularly significant as it follows market turbulence driven by geopolitical fears and the Federal Reserve's signals of maintaining current rate levels, keeping investors wary of future guidance and earnings resilience.
โบ Asian markets advanced, with significant contributions from technology firms in Hong Kong, which rallied after UBS Group upgraded Chinese stocks to overweight. This upgrade comes despite ongoing concerns about Chinaโs property sector and broader economic challenges. Japanese equities also maintained their gains amidst the JPY's fluctuations and ahead of the Bank of Japanโs upcoming policy review, which is expected to provide further clues about the future of its monetary policy amidst the JPYโs weakness.
โบ Commodity markets were mixed; the price of gold continued its downward trend and recorded one of the sharpest short-term, panic-like declines in almost two years. Gold prices are now trading at around $2,300/oz. This decline in gold prices reflects easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the likelihood of sustained higher interest rates by the Fed. Conversely, oil prices experienced slight gains, with WTI Crude oil trading at around $82.3/barrel. Traders are evaluating the potential outcomes of ongoing negotiations and recent confrontations between Israel and Iran, assessing the global supply dynamics in light of these developments.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
๐ธ ๐ฏ๐ต Jibun Bank PMI - 00:30 (released)
๐ธ ๐ซ๐ท HCOB PMI - 07:15 (released)
๐ธ ๐ฉ๐ช HCOB PMI - 07:30 (released)
๐ธ ๐ช๐บ HCOB PMI - 08:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ฌ๐ง S&P Global PMI - 08:30 (released)
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ S&P Global PMI - 13:45
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
๐ธ = Event of medium/high importance
โฆ๏ธ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
๐ Visa (V) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ PepsiCo (PEP) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Novartis (NVS) ๐จ๐ญ (released)
โ๏ธ Danaher (DHR) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ General Electric (GE) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Texas Instruments (TXN) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Philip Morris (PM) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Rtx Corp (RTX) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ NextEra Energy (NEE) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ United Parcel Service (UPS) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Lockheed Martin (LMT) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Chubb (CB) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Fiserv (FI) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Canadian National Railway (CNI) ๐จ๐ฆ
โ๏ธ Sherwin-Williams (SHW) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Freeport-McMoran (FCX) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ British American Tobacco ADR (BTI) ๐ฌ๐ง
โ๏ธ Spotify Tech (SPOT) ๐ธ๐ช
โ๏ธ General Motors (GM) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Kimberly-Clark (KMB) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ MSCI (MSCI) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Halliburton (HAL) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Baker Hughes (BKR) ๐บ๐ธ
SmartTraderโข Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 25 trading days:
โ
Performance: 15.03 - 15.04
121/151 = 80.1% Success Rate
โ
16.4 - GER_40 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 17878.70)
โ
16.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2388.79|or closed ~2390)
โ
16.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 17743.30)
โ
16.4 - GER_40 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 17916.30)
โ
16.4 - META - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 500.23)
โ
16.4 - TSLA - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 156.21)
โ
16.4 - TSLA - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 156.41|or TP 154.56)
โ
16.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2392.43)
โ
16.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (CLOSED - 2392.69)
9/9 = 100% Success Rate
โ
17.4 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 37934.90)
โ
17.4 - GS - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 407.33)
โ 17.4 - CRM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 268.83)
โ
17.4 - META - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 501.23)
โ
17.4 - GER_40 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 17844.80)
โ
17.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2380.89|+Re-Entry)
โ
17.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 17532.30)
โ
17.4 - NFLX - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 615.47)
7/8 = 87.5% Success Rate
โ
18.4 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 38088.70)
โ
18.4 - NVDA - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 851.47)
โ
18.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 17513.30)
โ
18.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 155.63)
โ
18.4 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 37762.70)
โ 18.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 17263.3)
(โ) 18.4 - NFLX - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 559.77| optional trade)
5/7 = 71.4% Success Rate (including optional trade)
*no update*
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SELL NOW ๐ฝ Tesla (TSLA) ๐บ๐ธ
โ ๏ธ Volatile
โบ Wall Street will close deep green today after the S&P 500 closed lower for six days in a row. Despite the strong gains, Tesla is still down 3% but well above today's low (which is also a multi-year low) at ~$138.80. We can SHORT here (near/at $142.50).
โบ We expect further headwinds for Tesla ahead of tomorrow's earnings report (tomorrow, after market close). Tesla suffered further heavy losses after the last earnings report - with slowing sales growth & deliveries, falling margins and lower sales guidance.
โบ It's not going to be a strong quarter as Tesla continues to struggle to sell the cars it produces. The latest data showed a year-on-year decline in deliveries.
โบWe are seeing a general decline in demand for electric cars, which is also reflected in sharply falling resale values - although this has been exacerbated to some extent by Tesla's recent drastic price cuts.
โบ Despite Tesla's poor performance in recent months (-42.5% YTD alone), the stock remains very expensive (fwd P/E over 50). Compared to some of its fiercest competitors - especially BYD - Tesla has also seen slower sales and delivery growth recently. Tesla has lost market share in all major markets and is exposed to the risk of potential Chinese regulations against non-Chinese automakers - even though Tesla produces in China.
โบ We have position ourselves SHORT and expect more analysts to warn of a potentially weak earnings report tomorrow.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 350 - 380 (35,000% - 38,000%) trading Tesla (TSLA)
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
โก๏ธ๐๐
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 155.94
TP โ
@: 156.89
We further tighten the SL of our Alphabet position and set our TP near the highs of the last two sessions.
We see overall an improved market sentiment now with US stock futures pointing to a positive closing.
โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ค๐ต๐ต๐ต
1๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ4๏ธโฃ๐1๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ7๏ธโฃ
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Meta Platforms (META) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 478.43
TP โ
@: 484.83
Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 155.49
TP โ
@: 156.79
Alphabet remains our mega cash cow. Our position is deep in profit with Alphabet now back at session highs. We work with a tight SL and TP here and bring yet another big profit with Alphabet home.
You can also set an in-profit SL for your Meta position. We continue to trade with more caution now as we see a market that is vulnerable to profit taking.
โโโ
๐โ๐ฏ๐
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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BUY NOW ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
โ ๏ธ Volatil
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
SL ๐ @: (VIP ONLY)
โบ (VIP ONLY) opened very strongly today but then faced sharp profit taking with also most of other big tech stocks falling. (VIP ONLY) is trading still in the red after finding support near $(VIP ONLY).
โบ We (VIP ONLY) and see the initial profit taking wave abated. We find a good entry and want to trade the rebound. We buy the dips now more cautiously and don't overposition us - especially not in growth stocks that have been vulnerable for profit taking.
โบ I expect a very strong earnings report from (VIP ONLY) on (VIP ONLY) and expect also analysts to remain very optimistic about (VIP ONLY).
โบ We work with a tight SL (near session lows) and set our TP for a more than 1% rebound. We also see the Nasdaq 100 now back near (VIP ONLY) with dip buying returning.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...
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---โโ
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 38088.30
TP โ
@: 38188.70
We set a tight SL for our Dow Jones here. We found the near perfect entry but if our SL is triggered - we may find a better re-entry. We want to overall reduce our LONG position and thus secure profits here.
โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ We are buying the 200-point dip in the Dow Jones (currently at 38050). Salesforce gave back some of the strong pre-market gains that helped the Dow Jones outperform in pre-market trading. We now see the Dow Jones near flat territory (only up 0.1%).
โบ We are also seeing a slight move away from defensive stocks after more defensive sectors held up well even on Friday.
โบ The Dow Jones still has plenty of rebound potential. Our Nasdaq 100 LONG position is well in profit and approaching our TP. Tighten your SL: ๐ @: 17143.70 to secure a nice profit overall.
(โ ๏ธ TP already triggered for our Nasdaq 100 position - analysis / signal delayed)
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by 20+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโโ
๐ค๐ค๐ค
3๏ธโฃ8๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ๐ผ
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ Equities stabilize after significant week of losses; Big tech earnings in focus
Global equities are stabilizing after a week of heavy losses. The S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-week fall since March 2023 last week. The flight to safety that dominated movements in the previous week eased as markets calmed down with the fact that Iran did not escalate further after the Israeli retaliation.
The focus is now on corporate earnings and some key economic numbers, including US PCE data - the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
Nvidia is up more than 1% after losing a whopping $212 billion in market value on Friday amid the general sharp selloff in the tech/growth sector. Salesforce is up more than 3.5% after news that takeover talks with Informatica Inc. have cooled. Verizon rose after a strong earnings report. Tesla, on the other hand, continues to weigh on Wall Street: the EV pioneer extended its losses after the company announced further price cuts for its electric vehicles ahead of Tuesday's earnings report.
Selling was particularly heavy on Friday as investors positioned themselves cautiously ahead of the weekend.
So far, we have had a solid earnings season. I believe we will continue to see robust corporate earnings, which could be enough to pull Wall Street out of its recent negative trend, even if concerns about higher interest rates in the longer term continue to push yields higher. I expect most big tech companies in particular to remain optimistic about continued revenue growth.
US growth and inflation data will influence interest rate expectations later this week. Further signs of stubborn inflation in the US remain a major risk this week, so investors should remain cautious overall.
We have seen a sharp fall in gold and oil also remains weak as the risk premium in particular is reduced with rising expectations that the crisis in the Middle East can be contained. Gold remains very attractive in the medium term and oil will benefit from increasing signs of an improving global economy and rising demand expectations.
I expect equity markets to stabilize today, but investors will not be taking very big bets on today's quiet start to a busy week.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
April 22, 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ๏ธ (Tesla remains a drag in tech)
Financial Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Defensive Stocks โก๏ธ
Energy Stocks โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ (weighed down from temporary weakness in oil prices, but with limited additional downside potential)
Materials Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
๐ฑ Forex
AUD โ๏ธ (benefiting from improved risk sentiment)
USD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (benefiting from higher yields; short-term limited upside)
CAD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
EUR โก๏ธ
GBP, JPY, CHF โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ
Oil prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (under pressure as geopolitical tensions fade; medium-term bullish)
Natural Gas prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Metal prices โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (metal prices to stabilize, remaining bullish)
Gold โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (heavy headwinds as risk premium reduced; improved risk sentiment)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (reached one-week high after Bitcoin halving - remains volatile)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
โ ๏ธ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL