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[TRIAL] ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง SmartTraderโ„ข - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

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BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ Dow Jones (US30) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โš ๏ธ volatile

โ–บ We are seeing very nervous markets. Some recovery attempts ended in profit-taking again. There are some stocks that can escape the sharp sell-off, such as chip stocks - after recent strong earnings reports, as well as Netflix, Apple (as a rather defensive tech stock) and healthcare stocks.

โ–บ The Dow Jones is down even more than the Nasdaq due to the high weighting of Microsoft and Caterpillar (both deep red) and other heavy losses such as IBM and Amazon.

โ–บ We assume that the rather defensive Dow Jones is nearing the bottom of the current heavy losses with a drop of more than 600 points - the sharpest fall this year.

โ–บ We are buying the heavy dip here in the 37750 - 37780 range and believe that the selling of many Dow Jones components has already gone very far (too far).

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

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๐Ÿ–ฅ VT Markets (๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ PU Prime (๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Admiral Markets (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Libertex (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)

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โšก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
STAY LONG / BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐Ÿฅ‡
TP โœ… @: (VIP ONLY)

โ–บ We see a persistently nervous market with more flight to safety and a deterioration in risk sentiment. This is a good sentiment environment for gold. Your gold TP is likely triggered - if your are still in - stay LONG.

โ–บ Stay LONG or get back in at a better price than our triggered TP โœ… @: 2332.47 - (edit: currently at ~2325.00)

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

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๐Ÿ“Š ROBโ€™S DAILY UPDATE ๐Ÿ“ˆ

โ€ผ๏ธ
Big tech optimism tilts with worries of slowdown; Microsoft, Alphabet, US GDP next

Tech stocks dragged US stock futures lower on Thursday after a slightly worse-than-expected outlook from Meta Platforms and a miss on first-quarter expectations at IBM led to sharp losses for both stocks and put pressure on other tech giants in the hottest part of earnings season.

Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 1%, with Meta accounting for half of that decline. Meta plunged 14% in after-hours trading after its second-quarter revenue forecast fell short of analysts' expectations and the company raised spending estimates for the year to expand its infrastructure. IBM also fell after the results. Alphabet, which releases its results later along with Microsoft, also fell. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.5%. Stocks outside the US, e.g. in Europe, also came under pressure from selling in the US tech sector, although European companies posted solid gains overall.

After the hype around artificial intelligence fueled the record rally on Wall Street, hopes for very strong growth in tech mega-caps appear to be extreme. Gains earlier in the week are waning, suggesting that investors are now more cautious ahead of the next earnings reports from mega-caps, which should show strong AI-driven revenue growth. In addition, key US economic data (US GDP) will be released, which will also bring into focus the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing.

The sharp fall in Meta's share price after already optimistic expectations for the first quarter were exceeded shows that the hopes of tech mega-caps for a further acceleration in growth thanks to AI may have gone too far - at least in the short term.

Investors are waiting for the figures on US economic growth after expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed have been scaled back for weeks. Analysts expect US GDP to have cooled to around 2.5% in the first quarter - still strong growth, but one that could further ease concerns that further rapid expansion could accelerate inflation in the US again. Big surprises are unlikely, but slightly weaker US growth would be a positive, while strong growth would weigh on Wall Street in the short term as investors would then scale back rate cut expectations again.

The yen extended its losses after falling above 155 per dollar for the first time in more than three decades on Wednesday. I expect a hawkish tone in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision tomorrow. However, this will likely only temporarily support the Japanese currency unless the Bank of Japan announces further rate hikes or other ways to reduce loose monetary policy in a credible manner.

We see gold higher as investors are more nervous again. I expect gold to rise above $2,330 today. US GDP data will play an important role. If the data is strong, gold will face a short-term headwind. Oil prices also continued to rise.


๐Ÿ‘ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

April 25, 2024


๐ŸŒ/๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Global Markets
โ†•๏ธ/โ†˜๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ†•๏ธ/โ†—๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ†•๏ธ/โ†˜๏ธ
Financial Stocks โ†˜๏ธ/โžก๏ธ
Defensive Stocks
โžก๏ธ/โ†—๏ธ
Energy Stocks โžก๏ธ/โ†—๏ธ (remains slightly bullish)
Materials Stocks โ†˜๏ธ/โžก๏ธ


๐Ÿ’ฑ Forex
AUD โ†—๏ธ/โžก๏ธ (further gains on higher commodity prices; likely with some headwinds as risk sentiment worsens temporarily)
CAD, GBP, EUR โ†—๏ธ/โžก๏ธ (depending on US GDP data and USD movements)
CHF โžก๏ธ

USD โžก๏ธ/โ†˜๏ธ(USD with some headwinds with early signs of cooling US economy)
JPY
โ†˜๏ธ/โžก๏ธ (saw further losses but will stabilize ahead of BoJ meeting)

โš’ Commodity Markets โ†—๏ธ
Oil prices โ†—๏ธ/โžก๏ธ
Natural Gas prices โ†•๏ธ
Metal prices โ†—๏ธ/โžก๏ธ
Gold โ†—๏ธ/โ†•๏ธ (benefiting from more cautious mood; will short-term react strongly on US GDP data)

โšก๏ธCryptos โ†˜๏ธ/โ†•๏ธ (remains in volatile sideways movement after recent selling post Bitcoin halving; Range $63K - $67K)

(*โ†—๏ธ bullish, โ†˜๏ธ bearish, โžก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ†•๏ธ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

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๐Ÿ“Š SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap ๐Ÿ—’

๐Ÿ“† Thursday, April 25

โ—๏ธ Tech stocks weigh on Wall Street; Focus turns to US GDP data along with Alphabet & Microsoft earnings

โ–บ Europe's Stoxx 600 Index is little changed amidst a flurry of earnings reports, with Anglo American surging 13% following a takeover bid by BHP Group. AstraZeneca (+5.5%), Barclays (+4.7%), Deutsche Bank (-1.5%), Hermes (-2.8%), Nestle (0.0%) and STMicroelectronics (2.5%) report varied results, highlighting sector-specific challenges, influencing market sentiment as traders digested the implications of these financial disclosures.

โ–บ US equity futures came under pressure mainly due to a slump in tech stocks triggered by Meta's slightly worse-than-expected revenue forecast and a mixed Q1 result from IBM. Meta saw strong overselling that caused the stock to fall by (currently) 12% in after-hours trading despite an overall strong and better-than-expected previous quarter. Meta's strong overselling shows how much the market is focused on the earnings of the Big Tech companies and led to the Nasdaq 100 futures falling by almost 1% while the Big Tech companies were trading in the red. IBM also slipped sharply (-9%) after Q1 revenue of $14.46bn missed consensus estimates of $14.55bn. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%. We see markets bracing for more earnings reports from the technology sector, particularly from Alphabet and Microsoft. In addition, markets are awaiting US GDP data following a $70bn auction, which will have implications for future Fed rate moves.

โ–บ In Asia, market reactions were mixed, with a overall slight losses lead by South Korea and Japan. However, Hong Kong markets rose with gains driven by robust buying from Chinese investors. The JPY weakens beyond 155, reaching a 34-year low; potential BOJ intervention eyed ahead of Friday's policy meeting. This activity underscores the region's reactive stance to both local economic indicators and broader global market shifts.

โ–บ On the commodities market, the oil price was little changed at $82.7/barrel (WTI). The price of gold recorded some gains and was quoted at around $2,326/oz after volatility on the stock markets increased.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช GfK Consumer Confidence - 06:00 (released)
โ™ฆ๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ GDP Growth Rate - 12:30
๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Core PCE Prices - 12:30
๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง GfK Consumer Confidence - 23:01
๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Tokyo CPI - 23:30

๐Ÿ”ธ = Event of medium/high importance
โ™ฆ๏ธ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

๐ŸŒ™ Microsoft (MSFT) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ—๏ธ
๐ŸŒ™ Alphabet C (GOOG) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ—๏ธ
๐ŸŒ™ Alphabet A (GOOGL) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ—๏ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Merck & Co (MRK) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Hermes International (HESAY) ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท (reported)
โ˜€๏ธ Nestle (NSRGY) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ (reported)
โ˜€๏ธ AstraZeneca (AZN) ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (reported)
โ˜€๏ธ Roche Holding (RHHBY) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
๐ŸŒ™ T-Mobile US (TMUS) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Caterpillar (CAT) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Comcast (CMCSA) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŒ™ Intel (INTC) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Union Pacific (UNP) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Airbus Group (EADSY) ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
โ˜€๏ธ S&P Global (SPGI) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Honeywell (HON) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Sanofi (SNY) ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
โ˜€๏ธ Unilever (UL) ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
โ˜€๏ธ Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ KLA (KLAC) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Southern Copper (SCCO) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŒ™ Gilead Sciences (GILD) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ BNP Paribas (BNPQY) ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
โ˜€๏ธ Equinor (EQNR) ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด
(...and many more with market cap <$50B)

SmartTraderโ„ข Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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Overview last 27 trading days:

โœ… Performance: 15.03 - 17.04

137/168 = 81.5% Success Rate

โœ… 18.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 38088.70)
โœ… 18.4 - NVDA - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 851.47)
โœ… 18.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17513.30)
โœ… 18.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 155.63)
โœ… 18.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 37762.70)
โŒ 18.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17263.3)
(โŒ) 18.4 - NFLX - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 559.77| optional trade)

5/7 = 71.4% Success Rate (including optional trade)

โœ… 19.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 2382.87)
โœ… 19.4 - USOIL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 82.177)
โŒ 19.4 - NFLX - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 546.47)
โŒ 19.4 - META - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 481.43 |Re-Entry in-profit)
โœ… 19.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 2395.77)
โŒ 19.4 - NVDA - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 763.97|Re-Entry in-profit)
โœ… 19.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 17197.3)

4/7= 57.1% Success Rate

โœ… 22.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 99.759)
โœ… 22.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 156.89)
โœ… 22.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 38088.30)
โœ… 22.4 - NAS100- LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17109.40)
โŒ 22.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 2318.34|+Re-Entry)
โœ… 22.4 - META - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 484.83)
โŒ 22.4 - TSLA - SHORT โ†˜๏ธ (SL - 148.57; pot. major slippage) ๐Ÿ”„

5/7 = 71.4% Success Rate

While April 22 was a solid day overall, the losses in gold (which triggered the SL overnight) and the sharp rise of Tesla following the announcement of Tesla's future plans caused ROI to fall massively. It would have been better not to trade sentiment-driven Tesla here and instead trade potential movements after the initial reaction. I would advise against buying Tesla for now (medium/long term) - Tesla has often failed to deliver on its promises, and recent earnings reports (and near-term guidance) will likely lead to renewed losses. Even if you believe in Tesla - you can find a better entry price (below $150).

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ExxonMobil (XOM) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
CLOSED (for me in TP) โœ… @: 121.13

My XOM position closed at 121.13 - you likely closed a bit better (at 121.19 / 121.20). We see energy still with significant upside in all time-frames but we can likely find a better re-entry (are anyways very LONG in a positive risk sentiment positioned).

We are now excited about Meta's earnings report.


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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Alphabet
(GOOGL) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 158.63
TP โœ… @: 160.34

Meta Platforms (META) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 488.93
TP โœ… @: 569.70 (optional)

Netflix (NFLX) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 549.87
TP โœ… @: 579.49 (optional)

We see strong rebound towards NYSE closing after a short profit-taking wave.

We now see our Alphabet position close to our TP and overall again deep in profit. We widen our TP and put our SL in profit. We can also update SL & TP or Meta position - if you are overpositioned - you can close your re-entry in profit (near $495). Also ExxonMobil is well in profit again - we stay LONG. We can tighten the SL of our Netflix position slightly.

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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Dow Jones
(US30) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 38523.70
TP โœ… @: 38584.70

Just as we predicted, we see the rebound in the second half of US trading and towards the Big Tech earnings reports.

We are now putting our SL into profit and extending our TP a little.

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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Tesla
(TSLA) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 160.51
TP โœ… @: 153.57 (optional)

Quick update. We see that the overall rally that started on Monday is losing some momentum. We stay LONG in Meta ahead of it's earnings report and expect the current profit taking - which in Tech is mostly from a strong opening / solid pre-market gains - to ease towards NYSE closing with investors turning more optimistic ahead of big tech earnings.

Tesla lost now almost 6% from today's highs.

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SELL NOW ๐Ÿ”ฝ Tesla (TSLA) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โš ๏ธ VERY volatile; 2/3 trade size

โ–บ We see Tesla up almost 15% from yesterday's close and have seen more hype buying after the NYSE opening as expected.

โ–บ It is always risky to trade a stock that is driven by sentiment and not fundamentals, but I expect analysts to focus more on Tesla's poor earnings report. The outlook doesn't point to significantly improving numbers either.

โ–บ Tesla reported lower than expected sales and profits for the first quarter, which will limit the company's growth. The sharp fall in margins in particular is a major problem.

โ–บ The company's inventories have risen, indicating continued weak demand despite price cuts. BYD in China is significantly outpacing EV sales (also percentage growth), while Volkswagen and the other German auto giants also have faster EV sales growth (albeit from a low base). In the US, Ford and GM are catching up - GM in particular reported very good figures - albeit driven by cars, especially pick-ups, with combustion engines.

โ–บ Tesla's cash flow is negative and is massively impacted by growing inventories and falling margins, which makes it more difficult to achieve positive cash flow.

โ–บ The question is not whether Tesla will experience profit-taking and the hype will die down - but when. We are now positioning ourselves cautiously SHORT and expect profit-taking. In general, we are currently seeing profit-taking in the tech sector in New York.

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 250 - 280 (25,000% - 28,000%) trading Tesla (TSLA) - 2/3 trading size.
0
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---โ€”โ€”


โšก๏ธ๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ”‹

๐Ÿ–ฅ VT Markets (๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ PU Prime (๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Admiral Markets (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Libertex (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)

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๐Ÿ”ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS ๐Ÿ”ผ Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

๐Ÿ”ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS ๐Ÿ”ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

We see mixed markets with gains in Big Tech - but most components in the Nasdaq are also trading in the red. Strong gains in the chip sector, Meta and Tesla keep Wall Street in positive territory.


๐Ÿ”น Dow Jones (- 0.1%) remains near 38500 for now after several upward breakout attempts. We can set a relatively tight TP as we continue to see mixed markets TP โœ… @: 38564.30.

๐Ÿ”น ExxonMobil (- 0.5%) opens a bit lower
(as often in previous sessions) also pressure by a slight rebound in the USD (which weighs on oil / natural gas prices). XOM remains bullish <- added

๐Ÿ”น Salesforce (+0.6%) is one of the top performers in the Dow Jones and is likely to open above $278.00 near our TP. We keep ours and can tighten our SL further ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 274.97.

๐Ÿ”น Tesla (+10.9%) opens sharply higher despite another very weak quarter in terms of sales, deliveries, margins and profitability. Traders are driving the stock higher after a sharp decline this year following a series of announcements by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, including the potential launch of a lower-cost electric car in 2025. Wall Street analysts remain largely skeptical as the long list of future plans will continue to weigh on FCF and will take some time to translate into higher revenues. Bernstein again rates Tesla as "underperform". Tesla will remain extremely volatile for the time being. We could initially see further price gains before profit-taking sets in again. Our position closes beyond the SL (deep off-profit).


โ–บ We expect tech/growth to remain bullish and are buying back the pre-market underperformance of Alphabet - which is currently trading 0.4% lower in pre-market trading. We have closed our LONG position from yesterday at 158.48 and can re-enter below this level. GOOGL opens at around 157.50. I expect the tech giant to return to the $158.50 - $159.00 range and remain optimistic overall ahead of Alphabet's own earnings report.

โ–บ (VIP ONLY) was one of the top performers yesterday and rose by more than (VIP ONLY)%. In pre-market trading (VIP ONLY) is trading almost 1% lower and could see slight profit taking for now. We expect (VIP ONLY) to remain in recovery mode and rise above $(VIP ONLY) soon.


๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 380 - 410 (38,000% - 41,000%) when trading Alphabet (GOOGL).

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)

โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! โš ๏ธ
โšก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


---โ€”โ€”

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ“ˆ

๐Ÿ–ฅ VT Markets (๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ PU Prime (๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Admiral Markets (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Libertex (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)

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๐Ÿ”ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ AUD/(VIP ONLY)

โ–บ We are (VIP ONLY) LONG in AUD/(VIP ONLY). The pair broke through the key (VIP ONLY) level as expected and even tested (VIP ONLY) in Asian trading, while the (VIP ONLY) remained weak. The biggest support for the falling (VIP ONLY) remains (VIP ONLY) soon.

โ–บ The AUD continues to benefit from improved risk sentiment, price gains in Asia (especially in China, as the AUD remains a China proxy), higher commodity prices and the recently weaker USD. Investors have slightly raised Fed rate cut expectations after the US economy cooled to a four-month low in April due to weaker demand, while some consumer price data points to easing inflation.

โ–บ Although we expect investors to be a little more cautious ahead of the (VIP ONLY), we see the (VIP ONLY) remaining weak for the time being and do not expect any major (VIP ONLY). The AUD remains in recovery mode.

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...

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---โ€”โ€”

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๐Ÿ–ฅ Admiral Markets (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Libertex (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)

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๐Ÿ“Š SmartTrader Insights: Wednesday Markets Wrap ๐Ÿ—’

๐Ÿ“† Wednesday, April 24

โ—๏ธ Global equities continue to rally on back of corporate earnings & economic data

โ–บ The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose slightly, holding its gains after a substantial two-day rise. Despite a strong performance from tech firms like ASM International, which surged due to better-than-expected orders, the overall market was weighed down by poor results in the banking and luxury sectors. Lloyds Banking Group and Kering, the parent company of Gucci, saw declines due to disappointing earnings, casting a shadow over the broader market.

โ–บ US markets saw a positive shift with futures on the Nasdaq 100 leading gains, lead by after-hours gains of Tesla. Despite Tesla's 9% drop in first-quarter revenue, the biggest decline since 2012, missing analystsโ€™ Q1 revenue, profitability and margin expectations Tesla was able to turn investors optimistic about its future due to the potential of more affordable EV models, Optimus, humanoid robots, FSD, Robotaxi, and it's charging network. Almost like a sleight of hand, Tesla has managed to shift the focus from a disastrous quarter to visions for the future ("don't look there - look here") - after initial euphoria, our chief analyst therefore expects share price losses again as it will take a long time for these investments to actually translate into sales. The S&P 500 continued its upward trend, marking its best consecutive rally in months, spearheaded by Nvidia and other tech giants. This comes amidst expectations of relaxed Federal Reserve policies following weaker-than-expected business activity indicators, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy.

โ–บ Asian markets experienced substantial gains, with Japan's Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbing notably. This rise was supported by strong performances in the tech sector, which resonated through regional markets. However, Australia's main index slightly declined despite the tech rally, affected by mixed inflation data that showed a slower-than-expected deceleration in consumer prices, complicating the economic outlook for the region.

โ–บ In the commodities market, oil prices remained stable at $83/barrel, as US crude stockpiles showed a decrease, suggesting a tightening market. This stability is also being tested by geopolitical tensions as discussions around new sanctions against Iran could impact global supply - according to chief analyst, however, sanctions will have a small impact on oil supply. Meanwhile, gold prices dipped again to below $2,315/oz with market sentiment remaining positive. The market's attention continues to focus on these commodities as indicators of broader economic sentiments and potential inflationary pressures.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Inflation Rate / CPI - 01:30 (released)
๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Ifo Business Climate - 08:00 (released)
๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Durable Goods Orders - 12:30
๐Ÿ”ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 14:30

๐Ÿ”ธ = Event of medium/high importance
โ™ฆ๏ธ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

๐ŸŒ™ Meta Platforms (META) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ—๏ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Roche Holding (RHHBY) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
โ˜€๏ธ Qualcomm (QCOM) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŒ™ IBM (IBM) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŒ™ ServiceNow Inc (NOW) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ AT&T (T) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŒ™ Lam Research (LRCX) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Boeing (BA) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Ping An Insurance Company of China (PNGAY) ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
โ˜€๏ธ Boston Scientific (BSX) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŒ™ Waste Management (WM) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ General Dynamics (GD) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŒ™ Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ CME Group (CME) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Iberdrola (IBDRY) ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Atlas Copco (ATLKY) ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช
โ˜€๏ธ Amphenol (APH) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Wal Mart de Mexico (WMMVY) ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ
โ˜€๏ธ British American Tobacco (BTI) ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
๐ŸŒ™ Oโ€™Reilly Automotive (ORLY) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Heineken NV (HEINY) ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
โ˜€๏ธ ENI (E) ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น
๐ŸŒ™ Vale (VALE) ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
๐ŸŒ™ Ford Motor (F) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โ˜€๏ธ Hilton Worldwide (HLT) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
(...and many more with market cap <$50B)

SmartTraderโ„ข Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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Overview last 26 trading days:

โœ… Performance: 15.03 - 16.04

130/160 = 81.3% Success Rate

โœ… 17.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 37934.90)
โœ… 17.4 - GS - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 407.33)
โŒ 17.4 - CRM - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 268.83)
โœ… 17.4 - META - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 501.23)
โœ… 17.4 - GER_40 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17844.80)
โœ… 17.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 2380.89|+Re-Entry)
โœ… 17.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17532.30)
โœ… 17.4 - NFLX - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 615.47)

7/8 = 87.5% Success Rate

โœ… 18.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 38088.70)
โœ… 18.4 - NVDA - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 851.47)
โœ… 18.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17513.30)
โœ… 18.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 155.63)
โœ… 18.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 37762.70)
โŒ 18.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17263.3)
(โŒ) 18.4 - NFLX - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 559.77| optional trade)

5/7 = 71.4% Success Rate (including optional trade)

โœ… 19.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 2382.87)
โœ… 19.4 - USOIL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 82.177)
โŒ 19.4 - NFLX - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 546.47)
โŒ 19.4 - META - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 481.43 |Re-Entry in-profit)
โœ… 19.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 2395.77)
โŒ 19.4 - NVDA - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 763.97|Re-Entry in-profit)
โœ… 19.4 - NAS100 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 17197.3)

4/7= 57.1% Success Rate

*no update*


Edit: on a negative note - our in SL triggered positions, NFLX, META, NVDA surged dramatically over the past two days. We were here a bit too much ahead of the markets even with us re-entering before Friday's closing. The initial additional sentiment driven profit taking wave has hurt our performance significantly (unless you worked with a wider SLs - then congratulations).

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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Salesforce
(CRM) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 274.63
TP โœ… @: 279.97

Tesla (TSLA) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 148.57
TP โœ… @: 130.11 (*optional)

We further tighten the SL for our Salesforce position with CRM now at $276.15 (deep in profit) - the session high or 0.90% higher for the day (outperforming the Dow Jones at +0.7%).

We take our SHORT position of Tesla into Tesla's earnings. Our position is off-profit.

While Wall Street expects a further worsened earnings report projecting Q1 operating profit margins of 7%, down from 11% a year ago and 19% two years ago - I also expect disappointing overall revenue with the latest delivery numbers coming in well below even pessimistic expectations. Lower deliveries and the lower profit margins will likely lead to disappointing Q1 earnings / profit / FCF / EPS.

Investors will listen closely to what Tesla and CEO Elon Musk will say about future Tesla's ongoing pricing strategy, demand for its EVs, its self-driving software and the still relatively unclear Robotaxi event. Musk may be able to create some buzz - but I believe not enough as earnings and forecasts will likely strongly disappoint.

(you can watch the Tesla Q1 2024 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast later HERE)

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๐Ÿ”ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
STAY LONG* ๐Ÿ”ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐Ÿฅ‡

๐Ÿ”ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
SELL AFTER** NYSE OPENED ๐Ÿ”ฝ Tesla (TSLA) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โš ๏ธ Very volatile

We are seeing chaotic investor reactions to earnings with Tesla (yesterday) rising sharply despite disastrous numbers and Meta (today) falling despite beating already high expectations -(due to concerns that rapid sales growth may be slowing). We are LONG positioned overall - meaning the pre-market moves are hurting our portfolio significantly today.



๐Ÿ”น Alphabet (- 3.9%) is falling in sympathy with Meta
and on concerns that the tech giant could also fall sharply after the earnings report, especially as investors see strong sales from Meta despite beating expectations for Q1. Our Alphabet position was deep in profit yesterday but is now closing in our tight SL.

๐Ÿ”น Meta (- 14.8%) opens dramatically lower
and well beyond our relatively tight SL. Alphabet offers a good price here for long term investors - but there could be more selling as investors are now also concerned about panic selling at Alphabet and Microsoft (both of which are expected to beat expectations / Meta also reported Q1 earnings). Investment banks remain optimistic on Meta. Bank of America, for example, once again rates Meta as a "buy", to name just one.

๐Ÿ”น Netflix (- 1.0%) opens close to / at our SL. We could see further panic selling on the selling. We keep our tight SL.


โ–บ We see "sell everything" just before the NYSE opening, which also sent yields sharply higher (due to selling of US Treasuries) and temporarily weighs on gold - which should actually benefit from the mild flight to safety. You can improve your entry in the $2,310 - $2,314* range. The current market moves will benefit short term gold demand - we are seeing some selling due to the negative correlation to yields which have now risen sharply (8bps for the 10 year yield after being as much as 5bps lower previously)

โ–บ We are not buying dips for now as the market is still very nervous and while we will see price gains, these will be followed by profit taking for now. We have seen Tesla up to 1% higher in pre-market trading today. After yesterday's strong gains, Tesla is now opening in the range of $159.00 - $160.00** and will probably see some dip buying for the time being. However, after the disastrous Q1 results, we expect further/returning profit-taking in the electric car giant. Tesla will remain very volatile, but it is unlikely that investors will remain so euphoric about Tesla's high-flying plans in the current nervous phase - especially as all of Tesla's plans do not improve Tesla's weak short/medium-term prospects.

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 300 - 330 (30,000% - 33,000%) trading Tesla (TSLA).

โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! โš ๏ธ
โšก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


---โ€”โ€”

You can now find a good entry into Tesla at ~$164 - $165 ๐Ÿ“‰

๐Ÿ–ฅ VT Markets (๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ PU Prime (๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Admiral Markets (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐ŸŒ)
๐Ÿ–ฅ Libertex (๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)

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โ—๏ธ Mixed US economic data; USD GDP growth below expectations

We are seeing mixed data: US GDP data came in below expectations, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates later this year (possibly in September).

At the same time, initial jobless claims were lower than expected and GDP price index data (including core prices) are higher than expected, which is fueling some inflation concerns ahead of tomorrow's PCE data.

Overall, however, I would view the data as positive for risk sentiment, but the current general sell-off in large tech companies is dominating the moves which is why we are not buying into the Nasdaq 100 dip yet.

In an initial reaction, we saw the USD benefit slightly from inflation concerns. We remain LONG in gold but set a tighter TP:


โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Gold
(XAU/USD)๐Ÿฅ‡
TP โœ… @: 2332.47

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BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐Ÿฅ‡

โ–บ With Wall Street plunged overnight by selling in the tech sector after Meta's lower than expected guidance and IBM's first quarter revenue falling short of expectations, we will see a more cautious market today. Expectations for earnings from the big tech companies are apparently higher than analysts' expectations, which also means that the market is now becoming more nervous about the upcoming earnings from mega-caps Microsoft and Alphabet later today (after the close).

โ–บ Earnings in Europe were rather positive overall, and Hermรจs also reported strong growth with a jump in sales in Asia - nevertheless, the share suffered slight losses. In reality, there were few surprises - even at Meta: The social media giant reported strong Q1 results and continued strong sales growth. However, further investment in its (AI) infrastructure and a slightly lower-than-forecast forecast created headwinds, showing that investors are very nervous, or overreacting, to any signs of a slowdown in mega-caps.

โ–บ We currently see gold 0.35% higher and expect further gains. US GDP growth is likely to slow slightly but remain strong. We see slightly lower yields after recent expectations for rate cuts have risen again following early signs of a slowdown in the US economy, which has also contributed to the USD falling somewhat after recent strong gains. We enter gold here at / at $2,325.

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 45+ (!) minutes! โš ๏ธ
โšก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


โ€”โ€”โ€”-

๐Ÿฅ‡๐Ÿ“ˆ

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๐Ÿ”— Book Your FREE Intro Meeting Now!

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โœ… 23.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 38469.70)
โœ… 23.4 - USOIL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 82.174)
โœ… 23.4 - CRM - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 274.63)๐Ÿ”„
โœ… 23.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 158.48)
โœ… 23.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 38449.9)
โœ… 23.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 2323.63)
โœ… 23.4 - XOM - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 121.13| or CLSD - 121.20)๐Ÿ”„

7/7 = 100% Success Rate

โœ… 24.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ
โœด๏ธ 24.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG โ†—๏ธ (open - in-profit)
๐Ÿ‘‰ SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 100.733
๐Ÿ”„ // TP โœ… @: 100.883 ๐Ÿ”„
โœด๏ธโœ… 24.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (open - SL in profit)
๐Ÿ‘‰ SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 158.87 // TP โœ… @: 160.34
โœด๏ธ 24.4 - NFLX - LONG โ†—๏ธ (open - off-profit|+Re-Entry in profit)
๐Ÿ‘‰ SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 549.87 // TP โœ… @: 579.49
โœด๏ธโŒ 24.4 - META - LONG โ†—๏ธ (open - off-profit|will close off-profit)
๐Ÿ‘‰ SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 491.87 // TP โœ… @: 569.70
โœ… 24.4 - TSLA - SHORT โ†˜๏ธ (SL - 160.51)
โœด๏ธ 24.4 - GER_40 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (open - off-profit)

3/7 - (5 open positions)

Meta's post-earnings losses are currently weighing on some of our open positions. The somewhat weaker than expected forecast could have a further impact on Wall Street tomorrow, as the "real" expectations seem to have been much higher. Meta continues to grow rapidly, but opens significantly lower tomorrow. IBM and Lam Research are also sharply lower after earnings reports - we are likely to see a bumpy start tomorrow for now. Expectations for Microsoft and Alphabet earnings are being scaled back somewhat, but probably remain optimistic. I expect both companies to beat their earnings - BUT we will no longer be trading the earnings reports of the big tech companies this season as the actual expectations are way off analyst expectations and therefore it is too much of a gamble. Meta offers a good entry point for a long-term position.

Du kannst einen engen TP fรผr unsere AUD/JPY-Position setzen (und SL in-profit). Insgesamt sehen wir eine Verschlechterung der Risikostimmung - nicht positiv fรผr das Paar (das fรผr uns immer noch gut im Gewinn ist). Der JPY wird morgen vor dem geldpolitischen Update/Ausblick der BoJ nur gedรคmpft gehandelt werden.

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โ—๏ธ EARLY LOOK: Meta reports better-than-expected first-quarter results but gives light revenue forecast

Numbers just came out and we see Meta ... falling significantly as first reaction.

EPS: $4.71 vs. $4.32 expected
Revenue: $36.46 billion vs. $36.16billion expected
(Revenue increased 27% from $28.65 YoY)

Forecast:
For Q2 - typically a strong quarter for ad spending (vacation season) - Meta gave a revenue forecast of $36.5 - $39 billion. The midpoint of the range, $37.75bn, would represent 18% YoY growth and is below analysts' average estimate of about $38.3bn - well below current revenue growth (Q1 YoY ~27%).

We currently see Meta down 10.3%. We certainly see a significant overreaction - given that Q1 was again very strong (27% YoY growth - that's very rapid) and Q2/2024 revenue expectations are within Meta's range. Given that Meta is more likely to land at the upper end of the range, we also see Q2 guidance very close to expectations.

This is an early reaction. The initial analyst comments on Meta are very positive. However, it shows a little how high hopes may have been. Meta again delivered very strong sales growth, but not much better than the high expectations. Meta remains very attractive. I don't expect Meta to open down nearly 10% tomorrow - but given Meta's continued rapid growth, this is a good entry point for medium-/long-term. Meta has its earnings call with analysts in 30 minutes.

-โ€”

This is not our earnings season - even though we were so far correct with our Q1 earnings expectations. Trading earnings reports is very difficult as you can't really gauge expectations and sentiment or (as seen yesterday with Tesla) how investors take announcements.

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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Alphabet
(GOOGL) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 158.87
TP โœ… @: 160.34

Meta Platforms (META) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 491.87
TP โœ… @: 569.70 (optional)

ExxonMobil (XOM) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
CLOSE NOW โœ… @: 121.20 (area)

We can further tighten the SL of our Meta position which is now near break-even again (initial entry). I stay LONG here as I expect another very strong earnings report from Meta, with an impressive revenue growth, increasing profit and improving margins.

We can tighten our Alphabet position which is again deep in profit.

We close ExxonMobil now near 121.20. We can likely find a better entry. We see oil 0.7% lower at the end of the day and sharp losses in natural gas.

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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Dow Jones
(US30) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 38533.40
TP โœ… @: 38584.70

Alphabet (GOOGL) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
TP โœ… @: 159.48 (optional)

It would have been even better if our tight TP would have triggered earlier - as we would have then re-entered Wall Street (although likely the Nasdaq as selling was lead in tech).

But also this way, our Dow Jones is well in profit and near the TP. We are tightening our SL.

We also see Alphabet now back near session highs and a strong rebound in Meta (we remain LONG). We can set a TP for Alphabet.


โ€”โ€”โ€”-

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๐Ÿ”ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ DAX (GER_40) ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช

๐Ÿ”ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: (VIP ONLY)
TP โœ… @: (VIP ONLY)

โ–บ After another positive start to the trading day in Europe and a solid performance in Asia, there was profit-taking on Wall Street, which was triggered by some of the early winners such as Nvidia, Meta, Amazon and Netflix. Tesla also lost some of its strong gains.

โ–บ The biggest drag on the DAX today was Deutsche Bรถrse, although it is on course for a record performance thanks to a takeover and good business development. At the beginning of the year, the exchange operator's net profit rose surprisingly strongly by 5% to โ‚ฌ497.6m, while sales increased by a strong 16% to โ‚ฌ1.43bn. There is no good reason for the heavy losses - which are likely only temporary.

โ–บ On the plus side, German chip group Infineon closed more than 5% higher.

โ–บ We are buying the dip in the DAX as market sentiment continues to improve. The most important German sentiment indicator, the ifo business climate, rose from a revised 87.9 points in the previous month to 89.4. This was the third consecutive increase and fuels hopes of an economic turnaround for the better, especially as other leading indicators have also recently surprised positively.

โ–บ Stronger than expected new orders for durable goods in the US and continued solid earnings reports overall should also maintain the positive momentum. We are buying the dip and expect Wall Street to cut some of its losses.

โ–บ We are also buying the very sharp fall in (VIP ONLY) share price. Our(VIP ONLY) has been (VIP ONLY) good recently. We now see (VIP ONLY) below yesterday's opening price, which fell by more than 3% after an already negative opening. We expect (VIP ONLY) to recover. We are working with an SL (VIP ONLY) ...

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the DAX (GER_40)

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)

โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! โš ๏ธ
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---โ€”โ€”

REBOUND TIME
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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Tesla
(TSLA) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 161.56
TP โœ… @: 155.16 (optional)

Tesla is now seeing further profit-taking after initial gains and fell back below $160. We are setting an in-profit SL as Tesla could see a return of sentiment-driven buying at any time.


---โ€”โ€”


โšก๏ธ๐Ÿš—๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“‰

๐Ÿ–ฅ VT Markets (๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐ŸŒ)
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BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ Meta Platforms (META) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
โš ๏ธ Volatile; earnings report today (after NYSE closing)

โ–บ Hype buying at Tesla keeps the Nasdaq in positive territory - but overall there was profit-taking. Nvidia lost its gains significantly after the chip giant had risen by up to 3% in pre-market trading. Meta also fell by 2% from today's high (after the opening) or 3% from the peak in pre-market trading.

โ–บ We are getting into Meta here. The strong pre-market gains suggest that investors are very optimistic about Meta's earnings report. We also expect a very good result and an optimistic forecast.

โ–บ We expect Meta to report strong revenue growth and further improved margins as well as strong FCF. The growth story continues and we expect Meta to gain ahead of the earnings report (later today). We'll see where Meta stands ahead of the NYSE close, but for now we expect investors to get bullish and find an entry here now at yesterday's closing price - (currently at near $496 below 4updated.

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 110 - 120 (11,000% - 12,000%) when trading Meta Platforms (META).

โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! โš ๏ธ
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---โ€”โ€”

๐Ÿ‘ค๐Ÿ“ˆ๐ŸŽฏ๐Ÿ”ผ

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๐Ÿ“Š ROBโ€™S DAILY UPDATE ๐Ÿ“ˆ

โ€ผ๏ธ Tech rally rebound continues amid busy day of earnings - Meta in focus


The equity rally continued on Wednesday as earnings optimism continues to outweigh market concerns that US interest rates will remain high for longer or that current valuations are excessive. The latest slightly cooling economic data from the US also eased concerns that the Fed may not cut rates again this year. The main focus will now be on Facebook owner Meta Platforms, which will publish its first-quarter results later today (after the bell). The earnings season has picked up speed and driven technology stocks higher.

Tesla gained around 10% in pre-market trading after Tesla CEO Elon Musk promised to bring cheaper vehicles to market this year and also unveiled some of his many other plans, which were apparently so exciting that the market looked past the fact that the EV pioneer missed expectations by a wide margin last quarter. Key stocks Nvidia and Meta were also both up more than 2%. Boeing rallied about 3% after the company reported a less dramatic cash burn than analysts had expected. Visa
and Texas Instruments rose more than 2% and 6%, respectively, after reports beat expectations. Earnings from Dutch multinational semiconductor materials company ASM after better than expected orders also lifted sentiment in the key chip sector.

Declines at Lloyds Banking Group weighed on the financial sector. Luxury goods stocks also fell after Kering announced a slump in profits due to declining sales at Gucci, its biggest brand.

We expect the recovery rally to continue for the time being, with tech/growth stocks leading global equities. Gains in mega caps will help the S&P 500 rise overall, but we see mixed markets today. Investors are optimistic that Meta can deliver again - I expect the same. IBM will also release results today after the close.

The JPY remains weak and continues to fall. FX markets have also been influenced by slightly lower concerns that the Fed will not cut rates again this year.

After a cooler than expected US economic data yesterday, US durable goods orders rose 2.6% in March, above estimates. Ahead of Friday's PCE data, investors continue to expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September.

The oil price stabilized after a strong session. Demand for gold as a safe haven declined as market sentiment improved and concerns that the Fed could keep interest rates high for longer eased slightly. After gold's recent outperformance, the focus will now be primarily on the stock market and whether the current rally can continue. Short-term gains in gold will be met with profit-taking.


๐Ÿ‘ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

April 24, 2024


๐ŸŒ/๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Global Markets
โ†•๏ธ/โ†—๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ†•๏ธ/โ†—๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ†•๏ธ/โ†—๏ธ
Financial Stocks โ†˜๏ธ/โžก๏ธ
Defensive Stocks
โ†˜๏ธ
Energy Stocks โ†˜๏ธ/โžก๏ธ (remains in recovery mode)
Materials Stocks โ†—๏ธ/โžก๏ธ


๐Ÿ’ฑ Forex
AUD โ†—๏ธ/โžก๏ธ (remains bullish)
USD โžก๏ธ/โ†—๏ธ (stabilizes after yesterday's slide; Strong durable goods order support USD)
EUR, GBP โžก๏ธ

JPY โ†˜๏ธ/โžก๏ธ (remains bearish - no major bets ahead of BoJ policy update)
CHF
โžก๏ธ/โ†˜๏ธ

โš’ Commodity Markets โ†•๏ธ
Oil prices โ†˜๏ธ/โžก๏ธ
Natural Gas prices โ†˜๏ธ/โ†•๏ธ
Metal prices โ†—๏ธ/โžก๏ธ
Gold
โ†•๏ธ (gains will hit profit taking with risk sentiment remaining positive)

โšก๏ธCryptos โ†•๏ธ (remains volatile in $64K - $68K range)

(*โ†—๏ธ bullish, โ†˜๏ธ bearish, โžก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ†•๏ธ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

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๐Ÿ”ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐Ÿ•ฏ
BUY NOW ๐Ÿ”ผ Dow Jones (US30) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

โ–บ We re-enter Wall Street and once again position ourselves LONG in the underperforming Dow Jones - which is in slightly negative territory in pre-market trading, weighed down by losses in the banking and luxury sectors in Europe.

โ–บ Ahead of the busiest period of the current earnings season, investors remain optimistic that overall results and guidance are largely solid and above expectations, which would help big tech companies in particular to maintain their continued high levels. Although Tesla suffered its biggest sales decline since 2012 with a 9% drop in the first quarter, markets focused on the updates in the earnings release, including a possible earlier production start for a new, cheaper EV model. While the current strong pre-market gains could initially lead to additional buying, there is a high risk of profit-taking in Tesla - which would only have a marginal impact on the Dow Jones. Given the strong figures from other "carmakers", there is no general headwind from Tesla.

โ–บ Texas Instruments issued a positive sales forecast, which should be seen as a good sign for the chip industry, which was key to the strong rally in 2023 and will be crucial for Wall Street's recovery after the recent slump.

โ–บ After the recent setback, shares have become cheaper again and remain oversold, at least in the short term. In addition, concerns that interest rates could remain higher for longer weighed on sentiment, but were tempered by signs of a slowdown in the US economy. Yesterday's strong earnings from United Parcel Service and Visa - both economic barometers - also supported improved market sentiment.

โ–บ The bar for earnings and guidance for large cap stocks remains high, but Meta is likely to release a very strong update with improved revenue (growth), earnings and margins.

โ–บ We expect further price gains and find a solid entry into the Dow Jones more than 100 points below the pre-market peak (near / slightly below 38500).

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

โฑ
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---โ€”โ€”

๐Ÿ”ค๐Ÿ”ค๐Ÿ”ค
3๏ธโƒฃ8๏ธโƒฃ5๏ธโƒฃ0๏ธโƒฃ0๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ“ˆ

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โœ… 22.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 99.759) ๐Ÿ”„
โœ… 22.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 156.89)
โœ… 22.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 38088.30)
โœ… 22.4 - NAS100- LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 17109.40)
โŒ 22.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 2318.34|+Re-Entry) ๐Ÿ”„
โœ… 22.4 - META - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 484.83)
โœด๏ธ 22.4 - TSLA - SHORT โ†˜๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐Ÿ‘‰ SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 148.57 // TP โœ… @: 130.11

5/7 - (1 open position)

โœ… 23.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 38469.70)
โœ… 23.4 - USOIL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 82.174)
โœด๏ธโœ… 23.4 - CRM - LONG โ†—๏ธ (open - SL in profit)
๐Ÿ‘‰ SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 274.63 // TP โœ… @: 279.97
โœ… 23.4 - GOOGL - LONG โ†—๏ธ (TP - 158.48)
โœ… 23.4 - US30 - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 38449.9)
โœ… 23.4 - XAU/USD - LONG โ†—๏ธ (SL - 2323.63)
โœด๏ธ 23.4 - XOM - LONG โ†—๏ธ (open - in-profit)

6/7 - (1 open position)

A magnificent day that started with an unfortunate SL trigger overnight for our gold position. With risk sentiment remaining positive, we may be able to find a better re-entry than the current price with returning gold selling in Asian/European trading as equities also benefit from today's strong earnings reports.

Our Tesla position remains a big question mark. Tesla delivered a very poor earnings report, but currently investors are cheering on possible news that Tesla could launch a cheaper model (not the Model 2) in 2025. Tesla is currently trading significantly higher. It remains questionable whether continuing to engage in a price war with Chinese electric car manufacturers is the right strategy. Investors will also be watching closely what Tesla/CEO Musk will say about his future plans, including probably more details about Tesla's Robotaxi plans
.

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โ—๏ธ EARLY LOOK: Tesla misses top & bottom line; Margins significant below expectations

First numbers are out - we first saw typical Tesla craze and an initial spike

EPS: 45 cents vs. 51 cents expected
Revenue: $21.30 billion vs. $23.33 billion expected
Operating profit margins: 5.5% vs. 6.6% expected

Revenue dropped 9% YoY the sharpest YoY drop since 2012.
Free Cash Flow: NEGATIVE!

The numbers are bad - catastrophic? Mhm - just really bad.

Now it will really depend on how Musk can position Tesla less as an EV company and more as a technology company that would justify Tesla's mega expensive valuation. Apparently Tesla is going to announce that it will bring some models forward - release earlier than originally expected - that's really hard to believe (knowing Tesla's recent delays), including a cheaper model in 2025.

โ€”โ€”โ€”-

It will be a long night for Tesla - initial reaction doesn't say much here.

Tesla was up between 2.5% - 7.5% - hard to justify looking at these numbers. Forecasts are not yet out and will also play a major role.

ะงะธั‚ะฐั‚ัŒ ะฟะพะปะฝะพัั‚ัŒัŽ…

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โšก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐Ÿ”ฐ
Salesforce
(CRM) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
SL ๐Ÿ”‘ @: 274.17
TP โœ… @: 279.97

Also our CRM position is now deep in profit. We set an in-profit SL and give Salesforce more room to rebound from recent losses. We see significant more rebound potential.

Congratulations - much points to another 100% day ๐Ÿ‘


โ€”โ€”โ€”

๐Ÿ”ค๐Ÿ”ค๐Ÿ”ค๐Ÿ“ˆ

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