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Meta Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 449.83
Our Meta position just hit TP for a mega profit. Congratulations - phenomenal overnight gains.
Also our Netflix position is VERY deep in profit with Netflix rising sharply. Meta is now pushing back above $450 - we are looking for a solid re-entry as we expect the social media giant to remain in recovery mode. If you are still LONG in Meta - set your TP now at TP ✅ @: 454.49.
——
You can quickly adjust SL & TP for your Netflix position to secure big profits:
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Netflix (NFLX) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 571.23
TP ✅ @: 578.39
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
Most investors expected today's NFP data to have little impact on the markets - but the data clearly surprised with a fall in hiring, a rise in unemployment and slower than expected wage growth. Swap markets are bringing forward bets on the Fed's first rate cut to September. We see significantly lower yields, a weaker USD and equities (especially interest rate sensitive equities) benefiting. We are very well positioned.
🔹 Exxon (+0.3%) extends yesterday's recovery gains. We found an almost perfect entry point yesterday at 116.00. The weakening labor market could weigh somewhat on expectations for oil/fuel demand in the short term, but the overall positive risk sentiment and the weaker USD will support commodity prices.
🔹 Meta (+0.9%) is opening well, benefiting from a weaker USD, hopes of a rate cut and a boost from Apple. We found a good entry point and benefited from the slight selling before the NYSE close yesterday. Our position opens deep in profit. We can set a wide TP ✅ @: 449.83.
🔹 Netflix (+0.6%) opens higher as expected and also benefits from the weaker USD and hopes for earlier rate cuts by the Fed. Netflix is still in recovery mode. We found a strong entry yesterday before Netflix posted further gains ahead of yesterday's NYSE closing. We can set a TP near the two-week high ✅ @: 577.47.
► We buy (VIP ONLY) after the recent strong earnings report and encouraging signals from other (VIP ONLY) like (VIP ONLY) (opening ~(VIP ONLY)% higher today). (VIP ONLY) is also a very interest rate sensitive stock and will therefore benefit from the risk-on mode after the NFP data. (VIP ONLY) closed (VIP ONLY)% higher yesterday, but still has more room to the upside. (VIP ONLY) has had a terrible share price performance over the last 3 years. The fundamentals have improved and (VIP ONLY) has seen solid revenue growth again for about 2 years. I think (VIP ONLY) is terribly in-innovative - but (VIP ONLY) cheaply valued and sees revenue growth.
► We are already positioned very LONG in growth with Meta, Netflix and our Nasdaq 100 LONG position and thus don't want to overtrade dramatically.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
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———
🇺🇸📈📈
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
⚡️ LIVE TRADING 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️
► Significant reaction on the markets as wage inflation in particular was much lower than expected - which is in stark contrast to the recent hot ECI data. This significantly raises expectations for rate cuts by the Fed, especially as hiring has also slowed - something the Fed sees as key to the start of easing its monetary policy.
► We see equities significantly higher - especially growth stocks. The only concern could be that new hiring slowed a lot after all - but the data is close to ideal for equity markets.
► We expect gains for gold With a weaker USD, lower yields (near -8 bps for the US 10-y) and now likely rising rate cut expectations, gold has reacted relatively mildly so far.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———
You can get a very good entry in gold here at ~$2,295 - $2,300 📈
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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈
‼️ Apple's sales forecast & record buyback boosts Wall Street; Focus on NFP data
Global equities, particularly tech stocks, rallied as Apple rekindled optimism about the earnings power of major technology companies. The focus now turns to key US labor market data. Non-farm payrolls data is the next big trigger for markets after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell allayed concerns over a possible rate hike. The expected gain of 240,000 jobs would be the slowest increase since November, but would still suggest that hiring remains at a high level.
Apple rose more than 6% in after/pre-hours trading after the company announced the largest share buyback in history. The iPhone inventor also reported better-than-expected sales in the first quarter, although the decline in sales continued - albeit at a slower pace than expected. Apple expects double-digit growth for its iPad and high-margin services business.
Stocks in the US rose, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4%. Stocks in Europe and Asia were also higher overall. Europe's most valuable company Novo Nordisk fell by more than 5% due to competition concerns. In Asia, particularly in China/Hong Kong, technology stocks continued to rise. The Hang Seng Index rose 1.5%, its ninth consecutive gain, the longest winning streak since 2018.
The USD weakened for the third day, while yields remained stable after the recent decline, suggesting that investors are not worried about further tightening of monetary policy and that higher for longer rates are already priced in - ahead of the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
I expect solid hiring - which is more likely to be received positively. However, a higher than expected average hourly wage would lead to some selling. As long as wage inflation is not too high (not above 0.4% MoM / or 4.0% YoY) and NFP does not fall below 225,000, the current improved market sentiment should be maintained.
The yen outperformed major currencies this week as Japanese authorities likely intervened to the tune of around $23bn, an estimate based on the central bank's current account figures. Markets are assuming that the Japanese authorities see a greater need to maintain intervention measures for the time being. The JPY remains volatile for the time being, but remains fundamentally under pressure.
👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
(depending on US NFP data - we expect solid hiring and no big surprise in wage growth)
May 03, 2024
🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️/➡️
Financial Stocks ➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ↗️ (recovering after recent sell-off)
Materials Stocks ↗️/➡️
💱 Forex
AUD, CHF, GBP ↗️/➡️ (further trimming recent sharp losses)
JPY ↕️/➡️ (stabilizing)
EUR, CAD ➡️
USD ↘️/➡️
⚒ Commodity Markets ↕️
Oil prices ↗️/↕️ (trimming some of the recent overselling losses)
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↕️/↗️ (overall remains bullish with Chinese economy improving)
Gold ↘️/➡️/↗️ (continues to hover near $2,300)
⚡️Cryptos ➡️/↗️ (trying to get back to $60K+)
(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
⚠️ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, May 3
❗️ Stocks buoyed by tech gains following Apple's post earnings surge; Focus shifts to US jobs data
► European equities edged higher today, supported by a tech-led rally across the continent. The Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.35% as technology shares led the gains ahead of critical US jobs data. Noteworthy corporate performances included Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, both of which reported earnings that surpassed expectations, buoyed by robust trading in equities and corporate banking, respectively. France's industrial production experienced a slight decline of 0.3% in March, hinting at challenges within the manufacturing sector.
► US stock futures showed strong gains with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. This was driven by a post-earnings surge in Apple's stock following its announcement of better-than-expected results and a record share buyback plan. The anticipation for today’s non-farm payroll data is high, with investors keen on insights into employment trends that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate path. The US anticipates non-farm payroll data, with a forecasted increase of 240,000 jobs, the potential next market catalyst after Powell's rate hike discussions. The US 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly this week, providing a calmer backdrop for equities as rate sensitive stocks rally.
► Asian markets presented a mixed but generally positive landscape, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbing for a ninth consecutive session, fueled by gains in major tech companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and JD .com. In Japan, the market was closed today, but the JPY continued its recovery, likely buoyed by suspected $20 billion governmental interventions aimed at curbing its recent weakness.
► Commodity markets were relatively stable as oil prices held firm following a significant drop earlier in the week. Ongoing discussions around a potential ceasefire in the Middle East might continue to influence oil’s risk premium. WTI Crude oil is trading at around $79/barrel. Meanwhile, gold's price dips slightly to $2,300/oz.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇫🇷 Industrial Production - 06:45 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 09:00 (released)
♦️ 🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate; Average Hourly Earnings - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 ISM Services - 14:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ Equinix (EQIX) 🇺🇸
☀️ Credit Agricole (CRARY) 🇫🇷
☀️ Hershey (HSY) 🇺🇸
☀️ TC Energy (TRP) 🇨🇦
☀️ Cheniere Energy (LNG) 🇺🇸
☀️ Novozymes (NVZMY) 🇩🇰
☀️ Legrand (LGRDY) 🇫🇷
☀️ CBRE (CBRE) 🇺🇸
☀️ Prudential Public (PUK) 🇬🇧
☀️ Danske Bank (DNKEY) 🇩🇰
☀️ Societe Generale (SCGLY) 🇫🇷
(...and more with market cap <$20B)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
✅ 01.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (pending order; SL in profit)
1/1 = 100% Success Rate
(2.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (not placed / if placed off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 155.279 🔄 (if still LONG)
(✅)✴️ 2.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - SL in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 17559.70 // TP ✅ @: 17677.30
✅ 2.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2304.47)
✴️ 2.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - in profit)
✴️ 2.5 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (open - just entered)
✴️ 2.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (open - just entered)
2/5 - (3 - open position)
May 1st was not a real trading day for us - but our pending order was triggered after the USD/JPY suddenly dropped 450-460 pips due to probable Japanese intervention. We were prepared for this and expected a possible Japanese market intervention to cause a 400-500 pip move - the perfect prediction.
We traded the chaotic market very well today while trying to keep our exposure to a possible Apple disappointment low - although we expect Apple to be able to beat analysts' low expectations. Our Nasdaq 100 LONG position will likely trigger our now tight TP for a mega profit. Great day - congratulations!
❗️ EARLY LOOK: Apple sees ongoing weakness in sales but beats revenue expectations; Apple announces largest ever share buyback plan
Apple's revenue growth continues to slow - especially for iPhones (down 10% YoY). Apple continues to see strong growth in high margin services sales and announces the largest share buyback plan of all time...
EPS: $1.53 vs. $1.50 estimated
Revenue: $90.75 billion vs. $90.01 billion estimated
iPhone revenue: $45.96 billion vs. $46.00 billion estimated
Mac revenue: $7.5 billion vs. $6.86 billion estimated
iPad revenue: $5.6 billion vs. $5.91billion estimated
Other Products revenue: $7.9 billion vs. $8.08 billion estimated
Services revenue: $23.9 billion vs. $23.27 billion estimated
Gross margin: 46.6% vs. 46.6% estimated
Sales in Greater China: $17.8 billion (down 8% YoY) vs. $15.25 billion expected
Apple reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that beat rather low Wall Street expectations, but showed overall revenue down 4%, and iPhone sales falling 10%. China sales fell less than expected (-8% YoY). Apple rose 4% after reporting earnings data but rose an additional 2.5% after announcing that its board had authorized $110 billion in share repurchases, a 22% increase over last year’s $90 billion authorization. It’s the largest-ever share buyback in history.
Apple currently up 6.7% 🔼 which pushed the Nasdaq ~ 90-100 points higher.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 17519.30
TP ✅ @: 17713.30
Our Nasdaq 100 position is deep in profit.
We already saw some reports, with Booking and Block performing very well post earnings. Cloudflare, however, fell sharply on a weak revenue forecast. Also Coinbase is trading 3% lower on lower than expected revenue in Q1.
Apple releases it's earnings report in 6 minutes.
⚡️ RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Meta Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
► We use the slight profit taking at the end of NYSE trading and buy the mini-dips in Meta (which also hit our SL / we can get back in at (near) the same price and (VIP ONLY). We see both companies still in recovery mode.
► Meta was oversold after given a slight lower-than-expected revenue guidance and concerns about massive investment in AI infrastructure (including Meta still believing in the Metaverse - which investors don't believe will be a massive success).
► (VIP ONLY) reported a very strong earnings report but investors are concerned that the recent rapid growth has been (VIP ONLY) - I see (VIP ONLY) still with more upside / rebound potential especially with the recent strong revenue growth in (digital) advertising.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 110 - 120 (11,000% - 12,000%) when trading Meta Platforms (META).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 5+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
———
It's important to receive the trading signals without delay:
WRITE US NOW & JOIN VIP 👤➕
OR: Other contact possibilities
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 17489.30
TP ✅ @: 17647.40
We continue to reduce our risk exposure ahead of a potentially disappointing Apple earnings report. We see that the Nasdaq 100 has now reached a new session high. We have found a good entry (not a perfect entry as we only saw additional price targets after the NYSE open // this is also the reason why we wanted to be very cautious at the NYSE open as we already saw signals for additional price targets shortly before the NYSE open).
Our position is now solidly in profit and we have set an in-profit SL. A stronger than expected Apple earnings report could easily push the Nasdaq 100 up more than 100 points.
Growth stocks are benefiting from the fact that the markets see the Fed's stance as less hawkish than feared - we correctly anticipated that the Fed would not surprise with a hawkish stance, but most investors expected a sharp decline in the Fed's rate cut forecasts and even possible signs of another rate hike - and were wrong in their assumption.
———
💻🇺🇸
1️⃣7️⃣4️⃣5️⃣0️⃣📈1️⃣7️⃣5️⃣5️⃣0️⃣💵
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸
► We buy the sharp drop in ExxonMobil's share price to ~$116.00, which is even below the level after XOM's rather unimpressive earnings report (XOM recovered from it, but now fell sharply again).
► ExxonMobil's Q1 2024 results were mixed, beating revenue expectations but missing earnings expectations as refining revenues fell 67% due to much weaker margins, while upstream remained resilient despite weak gas prices.
► We see Exxon unchanged on a daily basis as XOM already took the losses yesterday as oil prices fell very sharply (more than 3%) after US commercial crude inventories rose by 7.3 million barrels. Concerns about the global economy, a potentially slower than expected rise in demand for oil and higher interest rates for longer also weighed on oil prices. Above all, hopes for an easing of the situation in the Middle East have reduced the risk premium. There are a lot of headwinds, including the recent strengthening of the USD, which is now weighing on the oil price. However, I see additional headwinds as limited - as a lot is priced in.
► The medium/long-term outlook for oil remains bullish - especially in view of the approaching summer holiday season. The current extreme heat in Asia (I have experienced it myself) is also driving up gas prices, which have risen by 10.5% in the last month.
► I see little additional downside for XOM and expect the oil and gas giant to recover. Exxon pays an attractive yield, is attractively valued relative to the S&P 500 and has very strong potential for higher earnings in the medium to long term, particularly through its operations in Guyana (and Suriname).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 500 - 530 (50,000% - 53,000%) trading ExxonMobil (XOM).
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———
It's important to receive the trading signals without delay:
WRITE US NOW & JOIN VIP 👤➕
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 181.43
TP ✅ @: 184.49
Our Amazon position is deep in profit. Many of you already closed yesterday (near $185).
We are now setting an in-profit SL with some profit taking returning after a strong pre-market session in New York. If our SL is triggered - we can find a better re-entry (but also have to observe what with the current profit taking wave / yields / USD / rate expectations happen). We keep our TP.
Congratulations
———
🔤🔤🔤🔤💵
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈
‼️ Stock can continue to recover as Fed's stance less hawkish than feared
US equity futures continue their recovery after the Fed signaled that no rate hikes are planned and ahead of Apple's earnings report today.
The S&P 500 is trading sharply higher (+0.8%), with major technology stocks posting solid gains (between +0.5% and +2.2%). The markets were concerned about a possible further tightening of monetary policy by the Fed and therefore celebrated the Fed's ultimately rather dovish tone. According to Powell, the official figures would have to present convincing evidence that policy is not tight enough to bring inflation back towards the 2% target. Powell has positioned the Fed exactly as we expected him to. Yields have also fallen slightly, with the all-important 2-year Treasury back below 5%, which is important for near-term policy.
Weekly US jobless claims remained unchanged at 208,000, slightly below estimates. The market now awaits the US labor market data for April, which will be released tomorrow. I don't expect any surprises, but more signs that the US labor market remains too tight for the time being - in other words, more signals that the Fed will have to wait and see.
Apple's figures, which will be released after the market closes, will give investors a better idea of how the iPhone maker is coping with the slump in sales, which is partly due to the sluggish Chinese market. Expectations are on the low side, which doesn't set the bar too high. Nevertheless, Apple's figures could be a disappointment.
In Europe, shares barely moved amid mixed company reports. Drug manufacturer Novo Nordisk fell after disappointing forecasts and transport giant Moller-Maersk slipped. Shell rose after the energy giant beat earnings (unlike Exxon and Chevron) and announced a $3.5 billion share buyback.
The Japanese yen lost as much as 1.1% against the dollar overnight after gaining in regular trading on Wednesday and making a big jump of 450-460 pips overnight. The massive rise in the JPY was likely due to Japanese intervention and took almost all market participants by surprise (we were prepared for this and expected just such a jump in the 400-500 pip range). However, the Japanese authorities will not be able to prevent the currency from weakening again due to the large interest rate and yield differential with the US.
In commodities, oil prices fell after US inventories grew faster than expected and the risk premium fell further. The expectation that interest rates will remain higher in the longer term also weighed on oil prices - and on gold.
We expect the current recovery in equities to continue for a little longer, led by dip buying in the technology sector. The market will then become more cautious ahead of Apple's earnings report and tomorrow's NFP data.
👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
May 02, 2024
🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️
Financial Stocks ↗️
Defensive Stocks ↗️/➡️ (slight gains, before turning sideways)
Energy Stocks ↗️/➡️ (slight gains, before turning sideways)
Materials Stocks ↗️
💱 Forex
AUD, CHF ↗️/➡️ (trimming recent sharp losses)
USD ➡️/↗️ (in sideways movement / remains slighly bullish for now ahead of NFP data)
EUR, GBP, CAD ➡️
JPY ➡️/↘️ (markets concerned about more intervention; remains bearish)
⚒ Commodity Markets ↕️
Oil prices ↗️/↕️
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↕️ (iron ore sharply higher; overall remains bullish)
Gold ↘️/↕️ (sharp losses after yesterday's gains; will hover near $2,300)
⚡️Cryptos ↗️/↕️/↘️ (short-term rebound possible but with headwinds for now near $60K)
(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
✅ 29.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 102.549)
✅ 29.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2334.23)
✅ 29.4 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 180.99)
✴️ 29.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 17898.90 🔄
❌ 29.4 - TSLA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 184.47)
❌ 30.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2306.23; Re-Entry in profit)
✅ 30.4 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 157.287)
✅ 30.4 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 157.287)
✅ 30.4 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 81.347)
✴️ 30.4 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even|or clsd in profit)
✅ 30.4 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 157.877) 📸
(✅)✴️ 30.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (open - SL deep in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 38014.70 🔄 // TP ✅ @: 38148.70
(✅)✴️ 01.5- USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (pending order; SL in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 154.894 // TP ✅ @: 155.997
Quick update on our positions from April 29 and 30 + USD/JPY (triggered pending order). Amazon was deep in profit yesterday and benefited from its strong earnings report - some of you have already closed in profit. Our gold position hit our TP (some of you closed higher / possibly even well in profit) - gold was oversold as expected and rallied back to almost $2,330 before now facing headwinds again with continued concern that no Fed rate cuts are coming before September, or only 1-2 in 2024. Our USD/JPY position hit the TP 📸 - and then hit resistance at 158,000. Our Dow Jones LONG position is still open - our SL is deep in profit, you can tighten the SL a bit. Our DAX position is still off-profit - it was on a very good path yesterday, but was put under a bit of pressure by recent rather stubborn inflation data and weak German manufacturing data (today). We now see positive momentum - update your SL.
——
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 37997.30
TP ✅ @: 38148.70
I see most of you have already closed the Dow Jones with more than 300 points profit after the Fed meeting. We had expected the Fed to give an outlook of fewer rate cuts, but nothing that the swap markets hadn't already priced in. There was great relief, especially when Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down the possibility of rate hikes and also said that the Fed will shrink its balance sheet more slowly to ease tensions in the money markets.
The USD/JPY reached our TP (before then falling sharply after the Fed meeting) - it was perfect positioning to be LONG in the USD and it would have been great to short the USD right before the Fed rate decision. I wish I could have traded the Fed decision with you guys - it would have been very successful as all our expectations were spot on.
Now we see that the market is still digesting the interest rate outlook. The expectations for interest rate cuts have not changed significantly. The main focus will be on Apple's earnings report and another eventful trading day.
If you are still LONG in the Dow Jones - please set an SL / TP and secure (still) big profits. I had set a TP at 38383.40 - which was not triggered by ~10 points 🥲
PS: I am fully back now. Robert
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
► Investors rushing into equities (even freeing capital from their gold positions to do so) and the NFP data triggering short-term risk appetite are weighing on gold, even if it is supported from a fundamental perspective - by a weaker USD, lower yields and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts.
► For the moment, we see the gold movements not driven by fundamentals but by sentiment (lower demand for safe havens / rush into equities).
► This will change again towards the end of today. We are therefore improving our entry price at $2,277 - $2,280 and expect the gold price to recover soon.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
———
🥇2️⃣2️⃣7️⃣7️⃣📈
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
⚡️ LIVE TRADING 🕯
BUY NOW / SOON*🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️
► Overall, the NFP data is very good for equities - especially for those that are more sensitive to yields / the USD / interest rate cuts - such as cyclical / growth stocks.
► The data is much softer than expected and especially the unexpectedly low wage inflation raises hopes that the Fed will cut rates soon(er).
► I would say that this is close to the goldilocks numbers that equity traders would like to see, and it may give the Fed hope that both the tight labor market and inflation could ease.
► Although the Nasdaq 100 has already made significant gains, we are likely to see further gains - also in combination with yesterday's Apple earnings report. We enter the Nasdaq 100 near 17800* (you may also see increased volatility near the NYSE open).
► We took home a mega profit with yesterday's Nasdaq 100 and are now re-entering the tech index.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP ⚠️
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
———
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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
🚨 Non-Farm Payroll data in 2 minutes
⚡️ LIVE TRADING SESSION
(⚠️ only in VIP Channel)
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
► Markets are moving sideways as investors await the release of the NFP data in ~2 hours. With the Fed's comments and the generally priced-in "higher-for-longer", I don't see much risk of a deterioration in market sentiment in response to the NFP data. Add to this the strong gains at Apple.
► Hiring in April is likely to remain strong, albeit slightly weaker than in March. ADP employment figures were slightly better than expected. Focus will also be on average hourly earnings - a high reading will have a negative impact on share prices and further increase expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates high. However, despite the recent high ECI data, I do not expect a big surprise as expectations of a further rapid rise in wages are already priced in.
► The oil price was oversold this week. We expect slight gains towards the end of the week. Positive market sentiment, a weaker USD, lower yields and rising expectations that OPEC will maintain a slight production cut remain bullish factors. Natural gas prices have risen significantly in recent weeks, and other energy commodities such as coal have also risen significantly recently.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%)* trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - [VT Markets / PU Prime / Markets / Libertex] *multiply by 10 when trading at Admiral Market / Markets WebTrader / *multiply by 1000 when trading at Tickmill. ⚠️ The June-Futures Contract is currently ~$0.20 above the spot price.
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
———
🛢📈7️⃣9️⃣📈
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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, May 3
❗️ Stocks buoyed by tech gains following Apple's post earnings surge; Focus shifts to US jobs data
► European equities edged higher today, supported by a tech-led rally across the continent. The Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.35% as technology shares led the gains ahead of critical US jobs data. Noteworthy corporate performances included Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, both of which reported earnings that surpassed expectations, buoyed by robust trading in equities and corporate banking, respectively. France's industrial production experienced a slight decline of 0.3% in March, hinting at challenges within the manufacturing sector.
► US stock futures showed strong gains with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. This was driven by a post-earnings surge in Apple's stock following its announcement of better-than-expected results and a record share buyback plan. The anticipation for today’s non-farm payroll data is high, with investors keen on insights into employment trends that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate path. The US anticipates non-farm payroll data, with a forecasted increase of 240,000 jobs, the potential next market catalyst after Powell's rate hike discussions. The US 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly this week, providing a calmer backdrop for equities as rate sensitive stocks rally.
► Asian markets presented a mixed but generally positive landscape, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbing for a ninth consecutive session, fueled by gains in major tech companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and JD .com. In Japan, the market was closed today, but the JPY continued its recovery, likely buoyed by suspected $20 billion governmental interventions aimed at curbing its recent weakness.
► Commodity markets were relatively stable as oil prices held firm following a significant drop earlier in the week. Ongoing discussions around a potential ceasefire in the Middle East might continue to influence oil’s risk premium. WTI Crude oil is trading at around $79/barrel. Meanwhile, gold's price dips slightly to $2,300/oz.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇫🇷 Industrial Production - 06:45 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 09:00 (released)
♦️ 🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate; Average Hourly Earnings - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 ISM Services - 14:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ Equinix (EQIX) 🇺🇸
☀️ Credit Agricole (CRARY) 🇫🇷
☀️ Hershey (HSY) 🇺🇸
☀️ TC Energy (TRP) 🇨🇦
☀️ Cheniere Energy (LNG) 🇺🇸
☀️ Novozymes (NVZMY) 🇩🇰
☀️ Legrand (LGRDY) 🇫🇷
☀️ CBRE (CBRE) 🇺🇸
☀️ Prudential Public (PUK) 🇬🇧
☀️ Danske Bank (DNKEY) 🇩🇰
☀️ Societe Generale (SCGLY) 🇫🇷
(...and more with market cap <$20B)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 21.03 - 25.04 (26 trading days)
145/186 = 80.0% Success Rate
✅ 26.4 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 17667.90)
✅ 26.4 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.07143)
✅ 26.4 - META - LONG ↗️ (SL - 439.93)
✅ 26.4 - TSLA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 169.79)
✅ 26.4 - GM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 45.79)
✅ 26.4 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 118.77)
✅ 26.4 - META - LONG ↗️ (SL - 440.87)
7/7 = 100% Success Rate
✅ 29.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 102.549)
✅ 29.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2334.23)
✅ 29.4 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 180.99)
✴️ 29.4 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 17898.90
❌ 29.4 - TSLA - LONG ↗️ (SL - 184.47)
3/5 - (1 - open positions)
❌ 30.4 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2306.23; Re-Entry in profit)
✅ 30.4 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 157.287)
✅ 30.4 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 173.93)
✅ 30.4 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 81.347)
✅ 30.4 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 181.43) 🔄
✅ 30.4 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 157.877)
✅ 30.4 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 38148.70) 🔄
6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate
We were very well positioned ahead of the markets and made a massive profit today with our Dow Jones LONG (hitting TP). Also our Amazon position closed deep in profit (then rose further / but it was correct to reduce our overall positioning in tech. The DAX rose in after-hours above 18000 again. Meta remained volatile but remains in rebound mode. We went back in just before NYSE closing.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 17559.70
TP ✅ @: 17677.30
Congratulations!
Apple reported a very solid earnings report on first glance. Apple is up a bit more than 4% post earnings report and also pulls the Nasdaq 100 higher (and to session highs - in after-hours trading).
We tighten our SL, but also our TP as the report was not a massive positive surprise. Apple's China sales look better-than-expected.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 17517.30
TP ✅ @: 17698.70
We update again (in after-hours trading) shortly before Apple's earnings report. The market is optimistic for Apple's earnings report.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 17498.70
TP ✅ @: 17678.90
We are slightly tightening the SL of our Nasdaq 100 position which pushed further up but now sees slight PT before NYSE closing (as we expected). We also widen our TP.
Investors are waiting for Apple's earnings report.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2304.47
TP ✅ @: 2314.73
Meta Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 440.87
TP ✅ @: 447.87
We see yields edging lower - now in red territory for the day extending yesterday's slide. The lower yields show that investors are taking the very low prospects of rate hikes, as well as rate cuts coming later - but not being off the table - and slower QT as rather dovish signals.
Lower yields are also helping gold to stem today's sharp decline and approach the $2,310 - $2,320 range, where we expect gold to rebound quickly. We also see growth stocks benefiting strongly from lower yields and positive expectations for the Apple earnings report (although the bar for meeting expectations is relatively low).
Some of you have a slightly higher (later) entry point into Meta - but your position should be at least slightly in profit.
—-——
👤📉🎯📈
🥇📉🎯📈
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
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🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
► We expected the positive risk sentiment to persist a little longer before markets move sideways - we see some headwinds ahead of Apple's earnings report and likely further headwinds ahead of tomorrow's payroll report, which is likely to point to a very tight labor market (meaning wage inflation will further accelerate price pressures).
► We see the gold price 1% lower on a daily basis at $2,300. We assume that gold will soon be able to push back into the $2,310 - $2,320 range - the medium-term outlook for gold remains too attractive.
► The reduced risk premium has already been priced in and after yesterday's statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, there is also less headwind from concerns about a more hawkish Fed. Although interest rate cuts have been postponed, they are not off the table according to Powell.
► The prospects of further stock market gains at still high levels and an overall negative April performance, despite ~80% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates (so far), are creating some uncertainty - good for gold.
►While May is usually a positive month for stocks, the gains usually come in the second half of May. Overall, there is even the saying "Sell in May and go away", with May - October historically being the weakest period for equities.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
—-——
2️⃣2️⃣9️⃣0️⃣📈
2️⃣3️⃣0️⃣0️⃣📈
👉2️⃣3️⃣1️⃣0️⃣
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
Wall Street continues to rally after Powell positions the Fed less hawkish than feared and says rate cuts will be delayed but are not off the table.
🔹 Amazon (+ 1.6%) opens significantly higher. We set a TP near yesterday's highs ✅ @: 184.49. Our position is well in profit. After Amazon's strong earnings report on Tuesday, we see further upside potential in the short term, with Amazon still trading ~5% below the ATH.
🔹 Meta (+0.2%) opens little changed, but remains in recovery mode. We remain LONG and set a TP just below yesterday's high ✅ @: 447.87. Meta remains volatile.
⏱ Update DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed updates in the VIP Channel!
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW / SOON*🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► We are seeing exactly the market/sentiment after the Fed meeting that we predicted. The Fed was not as hawkish as feared as Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very cautious in his choice of words. Powell did not get carried away talking about a potential rate hike. The key message was that although interest rate cuts will be delayed, they are not off the agenda.
► It is also important that the Fed has signaled that it is slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction, which will lead to less upward pressure on bond yields and limit further USD strength. This is positive for risk sentiment and the growth sector.
► Earnings reports from big tech companies have led to the strong price gains that have driven markets higher since around January 2023. Qualcomm, the largest provider of smartphone CPUs/chips, issued an optimistic forecast, which further boosted the tech/chip sector.
► We expect the Nasdaq to recover further and the positive momentum in Europe (partly in Asia) to continue somewhat. The technology-heavy Hang Seng recorded very strong gains today.
► The Nasdaq 100 tested 17500 earlier, we can enter 30 - 60 points* below this level (or work with a pending order).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
—-——
💻🇺🇸
1️⃣7️⃣4️⃣5️⃣0️⃣📈
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
USD/JPY
SL 🔑 @: 154.894
TP ✅ @: 155.997 (optional)
We traded the USD/JPY exactly as we should have, made nice gains on our short term LONGs and also our pending order was triggered after a sudden sharp JPY rise (overnight).
The sharp overnight rise came during a quiet period in the markets after Wall Street closed and hours after the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting in which Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that stubborn inflation could delay a rate cut for a bit longer. While the Fed meeting brought no surprises and weakened the USD a bit (as more hawkishness was feared), the massive drop in the USD/JPY was likely due to an intervention by Japanese authorities.
While we had already wisely opened a pending order, the market was caught completely off guard.
If your pending order was triggered, you can now set SL / TP and secure nice profits. Congratulations - this is phenomenal JPY trading.
———
If not you can:
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 USD/JPY
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
► If you have not placed the pending order as recommended, you can now go LONG in USD/JPY. Please work with a wider SL (than if you are already LONG).
► The JPY outlook (without further intervention) remains bearish - in particular because Japanese yields are so low and the interest rate remains very accommodative at 0.1%
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
—-——
💴📈📈❌
🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
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🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
📊 SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Thursday, May 2
❗️ Mixed reactions post-Fed Decision; Apple earnings awaited
► The Stoxx 600 index stabilized after dipping by 0.3% today, influenced by worse than expected earnings from Novo Nordisk and a significant drop in Moller-Maersk shares, which fell 4%. The disappointing earnings reports overshadowed a profit beat by Shell, which also announced a profitable quarter and $3.5 billion share buyback. Additionally, the latest manufacturing PMI data showed a contraction across major European economies with Germany's Manufacturing PMI at 42.5, indicating ongoing struggles in the manufacturing sector.
► US futures saw an uptick as market participants reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting where rates were left unchanged and Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that further interest rate hikes were unlikely in the near term but was far from as hawkish as many investors feared. This has set a cautious yet optimistic tone in the market as investors also await key earnings from Apple later today. The focus remains on how major companies are navigating the current early signs of economic slowdown, particularly with regards to consumer demand and stubborn inflation.
► Asian markets presented a mixed response following the Fed's decision, with Japan's Nikkei slightly down by 0.10% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng surging sharply by 2.46%. The varied performance in the region reflects ongoing uncertainties and the diverse impact of global economic conditions on local markets. Investors are closely watching corporate earnings and further economic indicators to gauge the direction of Asian economies.
► In the commodities market, oil prices recovered some of their recent losses, with WTI Crude oil trading at around $79.5/barrel. Gold prices rebounded from oversold conditions on Wednesday as predicted from our Chief Analyst Robert Lindner but fell again today below $2,310/oz. Both react to a stronger USD and subdued rate cut expectations after the Fed said it has the stomach to keep rates higher-for-longer.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇦🇺 Balance of Trade - 01:30 (released)
🔸 🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence - 05:00 (released)
🔸 🇪🇸 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:15 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:45 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:50 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 07:55 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Challenger Job Cuts - 11:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Balance of Trade - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
🌙 Apple (AAPL) 🇺🇸❗️
☀️ Novo Nordisk (NVO) 🇩🇰 (released)
☀️ Shell (SHEL) 🇬🇧 (released)
☀️ Linde (LIN) 🇬🇧
🌙 Amgen (AMGN) 🇺🇸
☀️ ConocoPhillips (COP) 🇺🇸
🌙 Booking (BKNG) 🇺🇸
☀️ Cigna (CI) 🇺🇸
☀️ Regeneron Pharma (REGN) 🇺🇸
☀️ Mitsubishi (MSBHF) 🇯🇵
☀️ Southern (SO) 🇺🇸
☀️ Canadian Natural (CNQ) 🇨🇦
☀️ Axa (AXAHY) 🇫🇷
🌙 EOG Resources (EOG) 🇺🇸
🌙 DBS Group Holdings (DBSDY) 🇸🇬 (released)
🌙 MercadoLibre (MELI) 🇺🇸
☀️ ICE (ICE) 🇺🇸
☀️ Zoetis (ZTS) 🇺🇸
☀️ Moody’s (MCO) 🇺🇸
☀️ Equinix (EQIX) 🇺🇸
☀️ ING (ING) 🇳🇱
🌙 Coinbase (COIN) 🇺🇸
(...and more with market cap <$50B)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner