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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

We are currently seeing a somewhat mixed reaction as the figures (PPI MoM March) for March were revised from an originally reported 0.2% rise to a 0.1% fall (meaning that the PPI for March was actually much colder than expected).

The Producer Price Index, which indicates what producers receive for the goods they produce, rose by 0.5% this month (April), higher than the 0.3% expected by analysts. If the volatile food and energy prices are excluded (core PPI), the price index also rose by 0.5% in the previous month, while 0.2% was expected.

The PPI YoY (also for core prices) was in line with expectations. I expect the market to worry a little more about tomorrow's much more important US CPI data which should weigh somewhat on market sentiment.

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Tuesday, May 14

❗️ Markets on hold ahead of key US inflation data; Mixed signals in global stocks

► In Europe, stocks are showing minimal movement as investors hold their breath for new inflation data from the United States. Germany's inflation rate remains steady at 2.2%, matching expectations (and preliminary data) and nearing the European Central Bank’s target. The UK sees a slight uptick in unemployment, reaching 4.3% in March, aligning with forecasts. Investors are also closely monitoring developments in BHP Group’s potential takeover of Anglo American, indicating a possible shift in the mining industry landscape.

US markets remain unchanged, as market participants await the US Producer Price Index. The focus is squarely on inflation indicators, with significant attention on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming remarks and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index. Market sentiment is tinged with anxiety, with predictions suggesting a possible 1% move in the S&P 500 following the CPI release, signaling investor readiness for potential volatility based on these inflation outcomes. 10-year Treasury yields remain unchanged, reflecting market caution ahead of Powell’s speech and the upcoming CPI data.

Asian markets present a mixed but slightly optimistic picture, particularly highlighted by gains in Chinese tech stocks ahead of earnings reports from major players like Tencent and Alibaba. In Japan, the 20-year government bond yield hit its highest level since 2013, driven by speculation that the Bank of Japan might cut back on bond purchases, exerting pressure on the weakening JPY. The broader Asian market response remains tentative, awaiting the impact of earnings outcomes, especially with Hong Kong markets closed for the upcoming holiday.

► In the commodities sector, oil prices are stable yet cautious ahead of OPEC’s market outlook, which investors anticipate will provide deeper insights into global supply and demand trends. WTI Crude oil is trading at around $78.8/barrel. Meanwhile, gold remains well in the green for the month, propelled by the undercurrents of ongoing geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties about the US inflation data, which keep safe-haven assets in demand. Gold prices are currently moving in the range $2,330 - $2,350.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇩🇪 Inflation Rate - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇪🇸 Inflation Rate - 07:00 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index - 09:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 PPI - 12:30
♦️ 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speech - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀️ Tencent (TCEHY) 🇨🇳
☀️ Home Depot (HD) 🇺🇸
☀️ Alibaba (BABA) 🇨🇳
☀️ Sony (SONY) 🇯🇵 (reported)
☀️ Hon Hai Precision (HNHPF) 🇹🇼
🌙 Nu Holdings (NU) 🇧🇷
☀️ Sea (SE) 🇸🇬
☀️ Bayer AG (BAYRY) 🇩🇪 (reported)
(...and more with market cap <$25B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

Quick update for this week.

Today will be a very slow start to a busy week. I won't be very active today as I have some meetings in Prague 🇨🇿 today and meetings with our international development team later in the day. We are working hard to further improve SmartTrader - including the upcoming launch of our SmartTrader Community. I am also in talks with Michael "Meikl" from Austria 🇦🇹 - he will be joining our market analysis team later this week. These are big changes for SmartTrader - we are very confident and excited 🙌

The market will not make any major bets today ahead of key data later this week, including tomorrow's German inflation data. German inflation data will likely not have a major impact tomorrow as final data rarely surprise two weeks post the preliminary reading. However, tomorrow will also see UK unemployment data, US producer price inflation (this time before consumer price inflation) and a speech by Powell. Eurozone / German stocks will be influenced by German sentiment data (ZEW - which is the most important sentiment data in Germany). ZEW will also release Eurozone sentiment data tomorrow.

On Wednesday, we will see the US CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) data, which will cause a lot of volatility as it will either confirm hopes for rate cuts or push them back sharply in case inflation concerns rise again. US retail sales - also very important - will also be released on Wednesday. The data that will be released on Wednesday will be absolute key for this week.

There will be more data on Thursday and Friday - such as Japanese GDP data, US housing data (both on Thursday) and important Chinese economic data (industrial production / retail sales) on Friday that will give a better idea of how well the Chinese economy is back in growth mode. Friday will also see the final reading of Eurozone inflation data.

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2314.73)
✅ 9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2329.23)
9.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 476.97) 🔄
❌ 9.5 - SHOP - LONG ↗️ (SL - 59.77) 🔄
✅ 9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2332.48)
✅ 9.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL – 18183.70) 🔄

5/6 - 83.3% Success Rate

TODAY :

✴️ 10.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 10.5 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (mini profit; SL - 412.82| or TP - 413.47)
✅ 10.5 - CRM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 277.97)
✴️ 10.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (open - break-even)
👉 TP @: 18111.60 (optional) 🔄
✅ 10.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2364.23)
✴️ 10.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP @: 1.07511 🔄

3/6 - (3 open positions)

It was a very difficult week for traders, which also showed several times why a market with low volatility and low trading volume is so difficult to trade, as a single data point (such as yesterday's initial jobless claims or today's inflation expectations) can completely turn market sentiment around. Congratulations - our performance was phenomenal.

With Shopify, we unfortunately closed a trade in the red - possibly our only one this week. Still, it was a good day for stocks, with big gains in Meta and a great short-term NYSE open with Salesforce. Monday will likely see little action in WTI, but we expect oil prices to rally next week and test $80.00 (WTI) soon. You can set a relatively tight TP for our Nasdaq 100 - which is likely to be triggered on Monday (depending on how Asia and especially Europe opens). We can set our EUR/USD at 1.07511 - relatively tight, but we will continue to see little volatility and trading volume on Monday.

Have a good weekend - I am currently driving to Prague for a meeting tomorrow (no worries, my driver is driving me). I will post some screenshots later today / tomorrow.
Robert
🤙

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

SL 🔑 @: 2364.23
TP ✅ @: 2361.06

Gold sees typically at the end of the week / ahead of the weekend some safe haven demand in case there are concerns about a worsening risk sentiment. Gold is overbought here, especially given the rise in yields and stronger USD.

We still set a tight TP now and an in-profit SL as we may see some buying before the end of the week.

Most of you have a much better initial entry price.

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► We see gold up 0.9% (currently at ~$2,368) - we now want to position us SHORT (for the first time since April 11) as we still see gold up strongly on a weekly basis after rate cut expectations rose further, especially after yesterday's additional boost from the higher than expected jobless claims data BUT - the Michigan Institute's inflation expectations for the coming year came in at 3.5%, well above analysts' estimates of 3.2%. The long-term estimates also rose from 3% to 3.1%.

► We now see yields on US Treasuries higher (+5.3 bps for the 10-y) - with concerns about increased inflation causing expectations of interest rate cuts to recede.

Gold is benefiting slightly from general concerns about the US economy slowing too quickly (as a safe haven), but the fundamental headwind from the rebound in yields is likely to be too strong for gold to rise by almost 1% for today.

► We are therefore positioning ourselves SHORT here and working with a TP & tight SL.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!


——-

🥇2️⃣3️⃣7️⃣0️⃣📉

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸

SL 🔑 @: 412.82
TP ✅ @: 413.47

Shopify (SHOP) 🇨🇦🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 59.77
TP ✅ @: 62.48

We want to close our MSFT position slightly in profit and set a SL for our Shopify position to limit losses. Michigan inflation expectations came well above expectations - while consumer sentiment has fallen to the lowest level in 6 months. The data is as bad as it could have gotten and brings back stagflation concerns.

Shopify is strongly oversold - but we may see further losses as Shopify is very rate / risk sensitive.

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Meta
Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 474.47
TP ✅ @: 476.97

Our Meta position is deep in profit. The stock almost hit both SL and TP again. We are tightening now our TP and keep our tight SL. We want to close soon/now with a big profit.


——-

👤📈4️⃣7️⃣7️⃣💵

🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Admiral Markets (🇪🇺🇦🇺🇳🇿🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Stock market rally intact due to rate cut hopes & broad expansion across sectors

Global stock prices continue to rise,
supported by an overall solid earnings season and US data that raises expectations for interest rate cuts again. The S&P 500 closed yesterday less than 1% away from its all-time high and continued its upward trend, supported by broad gains - also in Europe and Asia. As we expected yesterday, chip stocks also recovered.

A strong recovery rally began on Friday after a soft NFP report suggested that the still tight labor market may finally be easing, which could allow the Fed to cut rates soon and return to disinflation. The rally then turned sideways, but received an additional boost from Thursday's US jobless claims, which reinforced the picture of an easing US labor market as jobless claims came in higher than expected.

For me, a positive sign of the ongoing rally is that the gains are more broadly based and not just driven by the big tech stocks (mega caps) - we are seeing gains in value and cyclical stocks in particular, which could help to keep the rally going.

However, there is also a fine line as the market needs more signals that the Fed can cut rates while the slowing economic data should not point to a recession. Inflation data also remains in focus - US CPI data next week will be very important. There is also a risk of escalating trade tensions between the US and China - US President Joe Biden's administration will announce a far-reaching decision on new Chinese tariffs next week.

We see another rather quiet day - at least for US economic data and earnings reports. The market will therefore also be paying attention to what Fed officials will say today about the timing of monetary easing.

The weaker USD, continued hopes of an imminent rate cut, overall positive market sentiment and rising demand from China continue to support commodity prices. The gold price saw a strong boost after expectations of interest rate cuts increased, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold (making gold more attractive).

I expect the positive market sentiment to continue for most of the day and then become a bit more cautious in the last 2-3 hours of US trading today. However, hawkish comments from Fed speakers could bring back concerns about prolonged rate hikes sooner. But even rather hawkish comments will not trigger a sharp correction or heavy profit-taking for the time being.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

May 10, 2024


🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️
/➡️
Financial Stocks ↗️
/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ↗️
Materials Stocks ↗️


💱 Forex
CAD ↗️
USD ↗️/➡️ (slightly recovering from this week's slide)
AUD, GBP ↗️/➡️ (Both benefit from positive risk sentiment; GBP benefiting from robust UK GDP data)
EUR ➡️
CHF ↘️/➡️
JPY ↘️


⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️
Oil prices ↗️
Natural Gas prices ↕️
Metal prices ↗️
/➡️
Gold ↗️
/➡️ (Further gains limited after strong gains / resistance in range $2,370 - $2,385)

⚡️Cryptos ↗️/↕️ (benefited from improved risk sentiment / increased rate cut expectations - gains limited)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

⚠️ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

Message from SmartTrader Fraud Prevention

Dear SmartTrader Community,

We are stepping up our fight against scams and fraudulent activities. We have become aware of fraudulent accounts impersonating Robert Lindner, SmartTrader employees or official SmartTrader accounts.

Please note that we will never encourage you to deposit or register with any platform other than our trusted partner brokers listed on our website:

https://smarttrader.community/broker/

In addition, we will never ask you to invest in any investment schemes or make cash or crypto payments.

This is our only Instagram account: https://www.instagram.com/robert_smarttrader. Impersonators may pretend to be us or Robert and use accounts that look like an official account or are near complete copies.

These activities have been noticed on Instagram and Telegram, so please be very vigilant. If you have any concerns or come across any suspicious accounts, please contact us using the email below or open a ticket directly in our support portal:

- Email: support@smarttrader.community
- Support Portal: https://smarttrader-support.freshdesk.com

Thank you for helping us maintain the integrity and safety of our community.

Best regards,
Alejandro Martinez
Head of Support & Fraud Prevention

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Friday, May 10

❗️ Equity rally goes on as US data supports case for rate cuts; European stocks benefit from UK exiting mild recession

► European markets rallied as the Stoxx 600 advanced 0.6%, heading for its best weekly gain in over three months. UK GDP data showed the economy expanded 0.6% in Q1 2024 over the previous quarter, exceeding expectations and marking the strongest growth since late 2021. Monthly GDP increased to 0.4% in March from 0.2% in February, driven by gains in services and production sectors. The GBP edged higher after the data showed that the UK economy had exited a mild recession.

► In US pre-market trading, the S&P 500 future trades 0.25% higher (Nasdaq 100 0.3%) after the index closed within 1% of its all-time high. Treasuries and the USD remained steady as traders anticipated potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected US jobless claims supported the case for interest rate cuts. Investors are closely watching comments from Fed speakers Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari ahead of next week's crucial CPI data.

Asian markets saw a positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index advancing over 2% following a proposal to exempt individual investors from dividend taxes. Onshore Chinese stocks fluctuated after reports that the US government might unveil a decision on China tariffs next week. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index closed 0.4% higher amidst broader positive market trends and solid earnings reports.

Oil extended gains for the third consecutive day, with key technical levels providing a floor for losses. WTI Crude oil is trading at around $79.3/barrel. Gold prices soared further to $2,370/oz, on renewed hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid more signs of an easing US labor market. A weaker USD also supported commodity prices.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇬🇧 GDP Growth Rate - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Industrial Production - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Balance of Trade - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - 14:00

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀️ Tokyo Electron (TOELY) 🇯🇵
☀️ Nippon (NTTYY) 🇯🇵 (reported)
☀️ Enbridge (ENB) 🇨🇦
☀️ KDDI Corp (KDDIY) 🇯🇵 (reported)
☀️ Honda Motor (HMC) 🇯🇵 (reported)
(...and more with market cap <$25B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 28.03 - 02.05 (26 trading days)

138 / 174 = 79.3% Success Rate

3.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 78.873|or clsd 78.85-78.90)
3.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2314.69)
3.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 17857.4)
❌ 3.5 - PYPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 63.97)
3.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2306.93)
3.5 - GBP/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.25379)
3.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 457.7)
3.5 - NZD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 0.60139) 🔄

7/8 = 87.5% Success Rate

6.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2329.79)
✅ 6.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 17988.7)
✅ 6.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️(TP - 188.33)
✅ 6.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2326.39)
✅ 6.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 468.83|or TP 468.33 / 469.73)

5/5 = 100% Success Rate

7.5 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 102.233)
7.5 - DIS - LONG ↗️ (TP - 106.47)
✅ 7.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2319.43)
✅ 7.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 472.89)
✅ 7.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP ✅ @: 116.97|or TP 116.98) 🔄

5/5 = 100% Success Rate

Stunning performance in this difficult market with low volatility and very thin trading volumes. Risk sentiment has improved today following further signs of easing in the US labor market. I was worried about our NZD/USD which is very risk sensitive - so we went with a tight TP (which was triggered today).

ANNOUNCEMENT
📣: You can now find the current positions on our website. We want to further improve our transparency and your experience with SmartTrader. Although SmartTrader is already the most transparent (and successful) trading channel in the world, we still see room for improvement. We will continue to improve this page - as it is not me who updates the data (but our content manager), there may be slight delays.

Will be further optimized:
https://smarttrader.community/current-trades-from-robert-lindner/

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Meta
Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 474.47
TP ✅ @: 477.33

We pull our SL for our Meta position tighter. You can slightly widen your TP.

Meta is now trading at a two weeks high and already above the $475+ that we predicted to be hit very soon after Meta saw the extreme overreaction post earnings report.

Today's higher-than-expected jobless claims reinforced bets on Fed policy easing. The market took also the strong demand for the 30-year bonds which were sold today ($25 bn) positively. More signs that swap markets see a light at the end of the high rates tunnel.

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

Quick update as many positions closed earlier today:

3.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 78.873|or clsd 78.85-78.90)
3.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2314.69)
3.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 17857.4)
❌ 3.5 - PYPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 63.97)
3.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2306.93)
3.5 - GBP/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.25379)
3.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 457.7)
3.5 - NZD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 0.60139) 🔄📸

7/8 = 87.5% Success Rate 🔄

6.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2329.79)
✅ 6.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 17988.7)
✅ 6.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️(TP - 188.33)
✅ 6.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2326.39)
✅ 6.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 468.83|or TP 468.33 / 469.73)

5/5 = 100% Success Rate / NO UPDATE

7.5 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 102.233)
7.5 - DIS - LONG ↗️ (TP - 106.47|or still open)
✅ 7.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2319.43)
✅ 7.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 472.89)
✅ 7.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP ✅ @: 116.97|or TP 116.98) 🔄📸

5/5 = 100% Success Rate 🔄

✅ 8.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2313.89)
✅ 8.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP ✅ @: 183.17) 🔄
✅ 8.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18080.60) 🔄📸

3/3 = 100% Success Rate 🔄

Between May 1 and May 8, we only lost a single trade. (and won 26 - an incredible success rate of 96.3% (26/27) and that in a sideways market which is generally considered particularly difficult to trade).

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

SL 🔑 @: 2332.48
TP ✅ @: 2339.67

We found the perfect entry into gold three times today.

It is impossible to find the right words here - once again we are trading gold better today than probably any other market participant. Congratulations, I am very happy you are part of this.

We are once again securing nice profits and setting the TP at close to $2.340. We are working with a tight SL.


——-

We have won now 10 gold trades in a row.

23.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
29.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
❌ 30.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 02.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 03.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 03.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 06.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 06.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 07.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 08.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 09.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 09.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
(✅)✴️ 09.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️

15/16 = 93.8% Success Rate

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📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Markets remain flat; Traders wait for US inflation reports to provide guidance

Equities, but also other assets such as the USD, commodities and bonds, remain extremely calm (also yesterday) as the markets wait for the US inflation reports to give direction to the markets.

Wall Street is unchanged
in pre-market US trading and European and Asian equities are also moving sideways. US government bonds are also barely moving ahead of the inflation reports, as the US producer price inflation (PPI) will be published in 15 minutes. Much attention will also be paid to the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The CPI, which will be released tomorrow, is expected to show a slowdown but is still too high to increase the pace of rate cuts. Any surprise will trigger big moves as the data suggests that the S&P 500 will fluctuate by more than 1% after the CPI data.

Hopes for interest rate cuts have led to a strong upswing, pushing investor optimism to its highest level in more than two years. Sentiment data from the Eurozone/Germany also came in better than expected (as reported by the ZEW). How much upside potential remains in equities - a question that has also driven gold significantly higher this year.

The US PPI (today) will have an impact on the markets, but traders will continue to wait for tomorrow's US CPI data. We are seeing cautious investors who are not willing to make major bets at the moment.

Oil prices rose slightly ahead of the publication of the OPEC market outlook. Gold has stabilized after Monday's sharp drop. I believe today's PPI will show a slight reacceleration in product price pressures - which could revive stagflation fears as inflation remains stubborn while the US economy slows.

A PPI (YoY) of 2.5% or more would trigger some selling in US equities. If PPI is 2.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM, we are unlikely to see much. Any signs of weakening PPI - especially if PPI MoM is at 0.2% (or lower -> very unlikely) - will lead to a short term rise in (US) equities and an improvement in risk sentiment. The most likely outcome is that today's PPI will only have a short-term impact before the markets move sideways again.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

⚠️ Impacted by today's US PPI data - I don't expect a major surprise from US PPI

May 14, 2024


🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ➡️
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ➡️/↘️ (early performance depending on PPI - likely some profit taking ahead of US CPI)
Financial Stocks ↗️
/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️/↗️
Energy Stocks ➡️/↗️
Materials Stocks ↗️
/➡️

💱 Forex
EUR ↗️/➡️ (temporarily benefiting from solid Eurozone/German sentiment data)
AUD, CAD ↗️/➡️
USD ↕️/➡️ (impacted by PPI data)
CHF ➡️
JPY, GBP ↘️/➡️

⚒ Commodity Markets ➡️
Oil prices ➡️
Natural Gas prices ↘️/↕️
Metal prices ↗️
/➡️
Gold ↗️
/↕️

⚡️Cryptos ↕️ (remaining in sideways - range $60K - $64K)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

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📊 SmartTrader Premium Insights: Analyst Rating Updates

📆 Friday, May 13

🟢 Positive Ratings:

Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as ”BUY”

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: HSBC initiates as ”BUY”

Apple (AAPL) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Bernstein reiterates as ”OUTPERFORM”
Price Target: $195

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: HSBC initiates as ”BUY”

(VIP ONLY)) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Evercore ISI reiterates as ”OUTPERFORM”

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: JPMorgan reiterates as ”OVERWEIGHT”
Price Target: (VIP ONLY) ⤴️ (VIP ONLY)

Mastercard (MA) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Piper Sandler initiates as ”OVERWEIGHT”

Micron (MU) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Barclays reiterates as ”OVERWEIGHT”
Price Target: $120 ⤴️ $145

Netflix (NFLX) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: JPMorgan reiterates as ”OVERWEIGHT”

Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Jefferies reiterates as ”BUY”
Price Target: $780 ⤴️ $1,200

(VIP ONLY) 🇨🇦🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: Jefferies upgrades to ”BUY”
Previously: "HOLD"
Price Target: (VIP ONLY) ⤴️ (VIP ONLY)

Target (TGT) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Evercore ISI adds as ”TACTICAL OUTPERFORM”

Visa (V) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Piper Sandler initiates as ”OVERWEIGHT”

(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: HSBC initiates as ”BUY”

Walmart (WMT) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Evercore ISI adds as ”TACTICAL OUTPERFORM”

🟡 Neutral Ratings:

Intel (INTC) 🇺🇸🟡
Analyst: Jefferies reiterates as ”HOLD”
Price Target: $42 ⤵️ $34

Southwest Airlines (LUV) 🇺🇸🟡
Analyst: HSBC initiates as ”HOLD”

🔴 Negative Ratings:

Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸🔴
Analyst: Guggenheim reiterates as ”SELL”

Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.

🟢 = positive rating
🟡 = neutral rating
🔴 = negative rating

⤴️ = upgrade
⤵️ = downgrade

You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE 🔗

💬 As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!

SmartTrader™
Analyst team

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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Monday, May 13

❗️ Global equities little changed; Equities take a breather ahead of important data on both sides of the Atlantic

► European equities remained mostly stable as the Stoxx Europe 600 index showed little change after achieving its best weekly return since January. Optimism around the ECB's potential policy easing next month countered the downturns seen in automotive giants like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz. In addition, the Eurozone's GDP for the first quarter, employment figures and German inflation are eagerly awaited tomorrow.

► US markets are also showing little movement in today's US pre-market trading with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.1% higher amidst a steady landscape of treasury yields and the USD. All market attention is turning towards the upcoming U.S. consumer price data on Wednesday, which is expected to provide further clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies amidst ongoing inflation pressures.

Asian stocks displayed mixed results today. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark saw gains, reaching its highest since August, while mainland China equities also experienced an uptick. Conversely, markets in South Korea and Japan faced declines. News of China planning to sell its first batch of ultra-long debt this Friday helped bolster sentiment despite the backdrop of weak economic data from China over the weekend and looming U.S.-China trade tensions. Notably, SoftBank reported a significant Q4 profit of ¥328.9 billion, a notable rebound from a loss in the previous year, largely thanks to gains in its Vision Fund following successful public offerings like that of Arm.

Oil prices rose, erasing early losses from the week's start, fueled by optimism that China’s new bond issuance may support further economic growth. We see WTI crude oil trading at $78.3/barrel. This comes as traders evaluate the potential impacts of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where discussions on extending supply curbs are expected to take place. Meanwhile, gold saw
the correction that our chief analyst predicted dropping to below $2,345/oz. However, gold is still up for May.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇺🇸 Consumer Inflation Expectations - 15:00
🔸 🇯🇵 PPI - 23:50

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀️ Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras (PBR) 🇧🇷
☀️ SoftBank Group (SFTBY) 🇯🇵 (released)
☀️ Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) 🇮🇹
🌙 United Overseas Bank ADR (UOVEY) 🇸🇬
🌙 Bridgestone (BRDCY) 🇯🇵 (released)
🌙 Hang Seng Bank (HSNGY) 🇭🇰
🌙 Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) 🇨🇳
(...and more with market cap <$20B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 01.04 - 03.05 (26 trading days)

142 / 179 = 79.3% Success Rate

6.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2329.79)
✅ 6.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 17988.7)
✅ 6.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️(TP - 188.33)
✅ 6.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2326.39)
✅ 6.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 468.83|or TP 468.33 / 469.73)

5/5 = 100% Success Rate

7.5 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 102.233)
7.5 - DIS - LONG ↗️ (TP - 106.47)
✅ 7.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2319.43)
✅ 7.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 472.89)
✅ 7.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP ✅ @: 116.97|or TP 116.98)

5/5 = 100% Success Rate

✅ 8.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2313.89)
✅ 8.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 183.17)
✅ 8.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18080.60)

3/3 = 100% Success Rate

*no update*

All our positions were already closed (in profit; MON - WED). We traded the positive market sentiment on Monday and its gradual weakening as well as the phase of low volatility/trading volume with near perfection.

ANNOUNCEMENT 📣: You can now find the current positions on our website. We want to further improve our transparency and your experience with SmartTrader. Although SmartTrader is already the most transparent (and successful) trading channel in the world, we still see room for improvement. We will continue to improve this page - as it is not me who updates the data (but our content manager), there may be slight delays.

Will be further optimized:
https://smarttrader.community/current-trades-from-robert-lindner/

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SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/USD

► We see the EUR/USD near flat for today and with resistance in the 1.07750 - 1.07800. In the short term, we see further headwinds as the USD will recover somewhat from this week's losses after inflation expectations were much higher than expected today.

Inflation expectations for 2024 rose to 3.5% in May 2024, the highest level in six months, up from 3.2% in the previous month, according to the preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan consumer survey. The five-year forecast also rose to a six-month high of 3.1% in May, up from 3.0% in April. This shows that consumers continue to expect high inflation and even a further rise, which also led to a deterioration in US consumer sentiment, which fell to 67.4 in May 2024 from 77.2 in April, the lowest level in six months and well below market expectations of 76.

► After a very quiet start to the week next Monday, we expect the current slight deterioration in risk sentiment to continue and the recently strong European equity markets to face some headwinds - which in turn would mean headwinds for the EUR/USD.

► The market continues to expect the ECB to cut interest rates for the first time in June or July at the latest, while the Fed is expected to cut not before September. I expect the EUR/USD to weaken slightly again.

Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-

💲📉🔼

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SELL NOW* 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► We still see Wall Street in the green after the positive gains in Europe and (especially) in Asia (Hang Seng with +2%): S&P 500 +0.1% / Nasdaq +0.15%.

► Yesterday's Fed-friendly initial jobless claims data is followed today by hot Michigan inflation expectations and the really sharp drop in Michigan consumer sentiment (from 77.2 to 67.4 - the lowest reading in 6 months and down from 76 expected). We are now seeing stagflation concerns again.

► It's the fine line I described in my Daily Update - the consumer sentiment data is just very poor - a slight deterioration would have been seen as a positive as the Fed wants to see a slight cooling of the US economy before loosening monetary conditions. Inflation expectations, on the other hand, are just bad as long as they are above expectations. Inflation expectations were 3.5%, well above the expected 3.2%.

► We sell the Nasdaq 100 in the 18140 - 18170* range (still in positive territory) and expect some profit-taking at the NYSE close anyway.

► We do not see any panic selling here - the risk sentiment this week and the performance of equities in Europe and Asia were too good.

► Yields on US Treasuries rose, with the yield on 10-year bonds also weighing on growth stocks at +5 basis points.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Salesforce
(CRM) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 277.97
TP ✅ @: 279.94

CRM was a super NYSE opening trade - congratulations. The stock opened at $276.20 and then pushed very quickly into the range we expected ($279 - $280) - thus completely recovering from yesterday's slump.

We set now an in-profit SL and the TP near $280.

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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸

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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 Salesforce (CRM) 🇺🇸

Since last week's Friday's soft NFP report - we saw market sentiment strongly improved on hopes that the Fed is still nearing the start of easing it's tight monetary policy with a first rate cut in September. We see broad and global stock market gains with relatively little signs of a market being nervous about the recent gains going too far.


🔹 Meta (+ 0.5%) opens higher and likely trigger our tight TP (477.33) for our next big Meta profit.

🔹 Shopify (+ 0.5%) opens higher after a slight additional decline yesterday following Wednesdays post earnings crash. After the near 20% losses in the last two days - Shopify is attractive at the current price. We set our TP ✅ @: 63.63


Alphabet is trading more than 1% lower in pre-market trading on fears that OpenAI's new Google-like and AI-powered search offered by the Microsoft-backed big data company could hurt Google's core Google Search business. We want to see what Alphabet does today as we generally view the tech giant as very attractive - even more so than Microsoft, the world's most valuable company. However, we are positioning LONG into Microsoft in the short term, which will benefit from more AI integrations (for Bing search). Microsoft opens flat near 412.50 despite a likely promising product unveiling of OpenAI on Monday.

► We also want to trade yesterday's renewed decline in Salesforce and see recovery potential. Salesforce has come under pressure due to the talks between Alphabet and HubSpot, for which Google's parent company Alphabet wants to make a purchase offer. There was also some insider selling at Salesforce after it was announced that CEO Marc Benioff had sold 15,000 shares in the company on Friday, March 1. The software giant also suffered heavy losses in April when it was announced that Salesforce was on the verge of acquiring Informatica - a deal that many investors did not want to see after remembering the expensive Slack deal in 2020. The Informatica acquisition is now off the table, but Salesforce has never recovered the losses it suffered due to the fears surrounding the acquisition. We see CRM opening today at 276.00 with upside potential towards the 279.00 - 280.00 range.


🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 130 - 140 (13,000% - 14,000%) trading Microsoft (MSFT)

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 190 - 210 (19,000% - 21,000%) trading Salesforce (CRM).

Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-

We stay far ahead of the markets. Nobody trades fundamentally better than we do.

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BUY NOW 🔼 WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)

► As yesterday's data shows, oil demand and imports from China are rising and oil demand in the US is also increasing ahead of the summer vacation period. The increased global and US demand for oil is also reflected in falling US crude oil inventories (reported by the EIA) and higher refinery production.

► The continued rise in demand from China and the strong performance of the Chinese stock market should continue to support the commodity markets.

► A weaker USD and rising Fed rate cut expectations after signs of an easing in the US labor market - a key factor for the Fed to initiate the monetary easing process. The hope that interest rate cuts in the US will begin this year (the markets expect a first rate cut in September) is also creating a positive risk sentiment.

► From a technical perspective, we currently see an inverse head and shoulders pattern - a buy signal. We see an entry point in the WTI near/at 79.25 (spot price).

► We expect WTI to rise to $80/barrel (spot price) soon, as geopolitical tensions (in the Middle East) could also intensify over the weekend.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 0.6 - 0.8 (60% - 80%)* trading WTI (USOIL) / CRUDOIL - [VT Markets / PU Prime / Markets / Libertex] *multiply by 10 when trading at Admiral Market / Markets WebTrader / *multiply by 1000 when trading at Tickmill. ⚠️ The June-Futures Contract is currently ~$0.45 above the spot price.

Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq
(NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 18183.70
TP ✅ @: 18243.30

The markets in Europe and Asia rose strongly, supported by yesterday's strong Wall Street performance but also fueled by solid Japanese earnings reports and better than expected UK GDP data. We also see that Fed rate cut expectations have risen a little further - gold was able to make further significant gains during Asian trading.

We are already securing big overnight gains with the Nasdaq. We did a Nasdaq LONG at the NYSE closing yesterday - something I very rarely do - but we already recognized the positive risk sentiment for a very strong Friday start yesterday - congratulations!

We found the perfect entry in the Nasdaq at/near NYSE closing / a potential pending order did not trigger anymore - the Nasdaq 100 saw only one direction 📈

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✅ 8.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2313.89)
✅ 8.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 183.17) 🔄
✅ 8.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18080.60) 🔄

3/3 = 100% Success Rate

TODAY :

✅ 9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2314.73)
✅ 9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2329.23)
(✅)✴️ 9.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL
🔑 @: 474.47 // TP@: 477.33
✴️ 9.5 - SHOP - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2332.48)
✴️ 9.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)

4/6 - (3 open positions)

It was a phenomenal day - in particular because we were not hit by the change in risk sentiment after the US initial jobless claims - even benefited from it overall and then placed very good trades. We set the SL for our Nasdaq 100 SHORT on time. We have made phenomenal gold trades (again) today - now actually see gold above $2,340. Gold is benefiting from the further decline in US yields, the weaker USD and the increased expectations of interest rate cuts.

Our performance so far in May:

33 trades
29 positions closed in profit ✅
1 position closed with a loss ❌
3 open positions ✴️


Congratulations 🎆
Enjoy your evening!
Robert
👍

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BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► Stocks have run incredibly hot today, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones in particular rising sharply today. We see the Nasdaq at 18100 points at the close - about 50 points below today's high and underperforming the broader S&P 500 and the more defensive Dow Jones. This is due to some selling in chip stocks after mixed earnings reports and concerns about headwinds to sales growth as the US restricts sales to China.

► Our Mata position seems to survive the day with our SL almost reached (position is well in profit).

► Higher-than-estimated initial jobless claims revived hopes of a rate cut after last week's soft NFP data marked the start of the current strong recovery.

► Overall, gains were broad-based and Wall Street ended trading near the day's highs, setting up a strong handover to Asia/Europe tomorrow.

► We see lower US Treasury yields, a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment - a good environment for growth stocks.

► We expect solid pre-market trading in New York tomorrow before investors become more cautious towards the end of the week.

► The rise in interest rate cut expectations and the slight signs from the Bank of England pointing to a rate cut will keep sentiment positive for the time being . The Nasdaq 100 has some more upside tomorrow if chip stocks can follow the solid gains across all sectors from today (including solid gains in tech / big tech).

► You can also work with a pending order 18060 - 18090.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——

This signal is delayed by 50 - 60 minutes - Join our SmartTrader VIP Channel for non-delayed market analysis, trading signals, updates, and trading news. If your broker has closed trading for the Nasdaq 100 now (during after-hours trading), you can trade the Nasdaq 100 as soon as it available again (right click on asset / specification).

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✅ 8.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP ✅ @: 183.17) 🔄 📸

Sorry, forgot Apple

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Meta
Platforms (META) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 473.17
TP ✅ @: 476.97

Every day the groundhog greets us and brings us money with our Meta Rebound Trade.

Today was no exception.

We first saw some profit-taking - a little more than we had expected - but Meta pushed above $475.00 (or yesterday's high) as we had predicted. We are now setting an in-profit SL and not such a wide TP.

Shopify is still hovering in the $62 - $63 range - but has at least been able to recover from significant profit-taking. The stock remains volatile and we LONG for now.


——-

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP triggered ✅ @: 2329.23

-> now re-entry at 2328.71

Stunning gold trading again today! Congrats! 👏

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