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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
AUD/USD

SL 🔑 @: 0.66776
TP ✅ @: 0.66656

We closed two AUD/USD LONGs in the money last week and then reversed our position on Friday. We have found the almost perfect entry into the pair and are now securing profits with a tight SL & TP.

We see risk sentiment in regular US trading becoming more positive, which could lead to a slight recovery in AUD, which is (still) the weakest major currency today (so far).

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Our performance in forex trading is absolutely breathtaking. We have only lost a single forex trade in the last 30 days. The best of the best short term forex traders achieve a success rate of between 65% and 74% - we are currently at above 90%. Congratulations!

All forex trades of the last 30 days:

✅ 22.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 24.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 26.4 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 29.4 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 30.4 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 30.4 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 2.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.5 - GBP/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 3.5 - NZD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 7.5 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️
❌ 10.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 15.5 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 15.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 16.5 - GBP/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 16.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
(✅)✴️ 17.5 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL in Profit)

15/16 = 93.8% Success Rate

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📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Markets near record levels w/ quiet start to the week; Gold, copper also at record highs

Global equity markets started the week with a quiet Monday near record highs, although a sharp rise in commodity prices, with even copper and gold hitting new record highs, could potentially have inflationary implications.

Stocks in Asia, Europe and Wall Street futures are trading slightly higher. The economic calendar is almost empty today and there are no major events for the US market tomorrow either. The main focus will be on the latest mega-cap earnings report on Wednesday (from Nvidia). Nvidia has been the biggest driver of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 this year and we see Nvidia continuing to make gains in pre-market trading (currently up 1.5%) and other chip stocks are also trading higher.

In Europe, stocks have been boosted by strong gains in mining and technology stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is trading near record highs

The price of copper rose to its highest level ever and futures on the London Metal Exchange topped 11,000 for the first time, which also pushed up the prices of other metals, including precious metals. Gold surpassed its previous high from April. The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter also fueled uncertainty in the Middle East and may have also played a role in gold's gains. On the other hand, oil prices remained stable, suggesting that the helicopter crash, which also killed Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, had a more moderate impact.

Despite the strong gains in commodities, investors are generally optimistic that price pressures will continue to ease and that the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and others will be able to cut interest rates in the coming months.

The Dow Jones closed above 40,000 points for the first time on Friday, while the S&P 500 hit a series of record highs. We are seeing analysts at the major US investment banks becoming more bullish again - even prominent bear strategist and analyst Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley is now positive on the market (he's late to the party) and is predicting further gains. Wilson is no longer bearish on equities. With more and more institutional traders/investment banks now joining the bulls, we see further short-term upside potential.

A stable USD with stable yields also helps the US growth sector. Rather hawkish comments from Fed officials remain a risk - but have increasingly less impact after Fed officials, including Fed Presidents Loretta Mester, John Williams and Thomas Barkin, have said that inflation remains stubborn and more time and data is needed. More speeches from Fed officials (Barr, Waller, Jefferson) will follow today.

Wall Street's strong finish last week will support risk sentiment / equities today, with few headwinds. We will see a quiet start to the week, with low volatility outside of commodities and low trading volume.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

May 20, 2024


🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️/↗️ (slight gains with some profit taking with futures / stocks near ATHs)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️/➡️/↗️
Financial Stocks ↗️/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ➡️
Materials Stocks ↗️


💱 Forex
USD ↗️/➡️ (trimming some but not all of last weeks losses; strong rebound unlikely for now)
GBP ↗️/➡️
EUR, CHF, CAD ➡️
AUD ↘️/➡️
JPY ↘️/➡️ (yen remains bearish, gradually weakening further)


⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/↕️

Oil prices ↘️/➡️
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↕️
Gold ↗️/↘️/↗️ (volatile after sharp profit taking at $2,450 but overall remaining supported)


⚡️Cryptos ➡️/↗️ (remaining slightly bullish - BTC trying to move away from $67K but will hover at that level for a bit longer)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)


Your Robert

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BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► The start to the week is very quiet, as no important economic data will be published today. Wall Street ended last week on a positive note - with the highest close ever. The Dow closed above 40K last week - after signs that disinflation has returned in the US.

► Some concerns that rates could stay higher for longer as the Fed admits increasingly Fed-friendly data but says it needs more evidence has created some headwinds - however, we see global equities remaining robust and market sentiment optimistic.

► We also see Apple lagging mega caps - and overall relatively broad gains in New York - including cyclical / growth stocks - another sign of continued optimism. We also see yields remaining stable after a sharp fall two weeks ago - making a strong rebound in the USD unlikely.

Asian equities ended the day on a positive note. In Europe, share prices rose - the Stoxx 600 is now 0.25 % higher than on Friday.

► We see the Nasdaq 100 hovering at 18600. We enter at this level and expect further gains today with little headwind. The Nasdaq 100 seems to be testing the ATH (18675+) during the course of the day - the Dow Jones has already reached new ATHs in pre-market US trading.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).

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✅ 16.5 - GBP/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 196.687)
16.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 0.66821) 🔄
✴️ 16.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 475.47
✅ 16.5 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 162.67) 🔄
✅ 16.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2378.87)
✅ 16.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39953.4)
✅ 16.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 184.17) 🔄

6/7 - (1 open position)

TODAY :

✅ 17.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 39929.7)
✴️ 17.5 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - slightly in profit)
✴️ 17.5 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (open - just-entered)

1/3 - (2 open positions)

Our goal was to reduce our LONG positioning towards the NYSE closing - which worked very well. We saw the cautious trading and sideways movement today that we had expected - including further profit taking in the second half of US trading. In the end, however, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed with a very small gain for today - but enough for the Dow's highest ever close (and above 40K for the first time) - definitely a tailwind for stocks in the upcoming week.

Investors are underestimating the resilience of US equities. Equities are supported by a strong earnings season - which was better than expected, Fed-friendly US economic data and expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy later this year. As long as upcoming inflation data shows that disinflation continues, we could see further gains in the coming weeks. However, the days of explosive gains in equities are over for now.

Congratulations on yet another very strong week. We have made a total of 26 trades, closed 20 in profit, only 2 lost (so far, and both from Monday) and 4 positions still open.

Enjoy your weekend, Robert
🤝

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⚡️ RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
KAUFEN 🔼 Chevron (CVX) 🇺🇸

👉 NYSE is already closed (receive non-delayed signals in the VIP channel)

► Also our CVX position hit out TP today resulting in a big payout. We stay LONG in Chevron which trades a little less than 1% higher for the day. Oil and natural gas prices soared and end the week at week's highs.

► We can re-enter CVX near / slightly below our triggered TP (slightly below 162.60).

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~340 - 370 (34.000% - 37.000%) when trading with (CVX).

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👉 NYSE is already closed (receive non-delayed signals in the VIP channel)

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WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
TP triggered ✅ @: 79.389

Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸
SL triggered 🔑 @: 184.17

Today is the big closing day. Also our WTI position from last week Friday hit (finally) our TP (TP2). Amazon closed earlier in our (in-profit) SL.

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Chevron
(CVX) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 161.40
TP ✅ @: 162.67

Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 39920 (area)
OR
SL 🔑 @: 39889.70 (in profit)
TP ✅ @: 39929.70

We further reduce our LONG position going into the final four hours of US trading.

We set a tight TP for our Dow Jones and close soon or close now.

We set an in-profit SL for our CVX position - but slightly widen our TP. Chevron is undervalued and underperforming given the fundamental tailwinds it (should) receive from higher oil / gas prices.


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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
AUD/USD
CLOSE
NOW ✅ @: 0.66790 - 0.66800 (area)
OR
SL 🔑 @: 0.66727
TP ✅ @: 0.66821

We want to get out of the AUD/USD and close slightly in profit. You can tighten our TP and set a tight SL or just CLOSE now.

We see that the USD now weakened a bit - but worsening risk sentiment may help the USD in the second half of US trading. The AUD benefits from higher commodity prices but is a risk-sensitive (negatively correlated) currency.

Most of you have a better first entry into the pair.


Netflix hit our TP at 619.77 (or at 622.98).

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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯

We see Wall Streets moving sideways again after all major US indices fell back from their all-time highs in the previous session. We see cautious trading and overall low trading volume.


🔹 The Dow Jones (0.0%) is rising again after taking some losses in the second half of yesterday's trading session and facing additional headwinds in European trading. We have found a good entry point. You can set your TP at ✅ 39988.80.

🔹 Amazon (+0.3%) opens higher after heavy profit-taking yesterday following fears that Walmart and Costco could become a threat to Amazon's e-commerce business. The worries are exaggerated. We bought Amazon yesterday near the lows.

🔹 Chevron (+0.2%) opened slightly higher and should get more fundamental tailwind from further rising oil and gas prices. We can set a TP at ✅ 162.47 - about 1% above yesterday's close. Goldman Sachs agrees with us and again rates Chevron a "buy".

🔹 Meta (- 0.2%) opens slightly weaker. We expect Meta to gain in the first half of US trading today. We set an in-profit / fairly tight TP ✅ 475.47.

🔹 Netflix (+ 1.3%) opens significantly higher near our TP. We keep our TP ✅ 622.98. Netflix also benefits from more positive sentiment from key analysts / investment banks. Wells Fargo agrees with our analysis and sees significant upside potential in Netflix's advertising revenues.

► We are well and deeply positioned and therefore want to wait and see how growth stocks react in early US trading before increasing our overall exposure. We are positioned LONG and want to reduce our LONG positioning towards the second half of US trading.


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BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸

► We see the markets moving sideways. After some losses in Asia and early European trading, we now see most global indices flat again for today (S&P 500 0.0%, Nasdaq 100 +0.1%, Dow Jones -0.1%). Technology stocks in New York are pointing to a slightly positive opening.

► Although all three major Wall Street indices were down slightly yesterday, there was no shortage of excitement among market participants. The Dow in particular reached a daily high of 40,051 points, above the psychologically important 40,000 mark (for the first time), before falling back and ending the day down 0.1%.

► We see the Dow Jones flat for today in the 14880 - 14900 range currently - slightly above the lows in European trading at below 14850. We went LONG in this range yesterday and believe the Dow will try to move towards 40K again today in regular US trading - before seeing some profit taking in the second half of US trading.

► The heavy losses in Home Depot, Amgen, Salesforce and Visa yesterday - all heavily weighted stocks in the Dow Jones - give the Dow Jones room to rally.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

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15.5 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL – 103.523) 📸 📸
15.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP – 78.879) 🔄 📸
✅ 15.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18548.9)
15.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP – 0.66997) 🔄 📸
✅ 15.5 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 8239.8)
✅ 15.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2374.87)
✅ 15.5 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 617.97)
✅ 15.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 118.13)
✴️ 15.5 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 622.98
✅ 15.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL – 18639.8) 🔄 📸
✴️ 15.5 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)

9/11 - (2 open positions)

TODAY :

✅ 16.5 - GBP/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 196.687)
✴️ 16.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 0.66839
🔄
✴️ 16.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✴️ 16.5 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (open - slightly in-profit)
✅ 16.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2378.87)
✅ 16.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39953.4)
✴️ 16.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (open - just entered)

3/7 - (4 open positions)

It was a good session, with some of our positions from yesterday closed in profit early on - big profit with our WTI position (with good TP) / a very good TP for our AUD/USD. Overall though, it was a difficult trading day as investors looked for further confirmation that the Fed will cut rates later this year. We saw mixed markets, which were also influenced by yesterday's wild swings and markets near the ATH (which is generally not considered a good entry point). You can set a tight TP four for re-entry in AUD/USD (currently slightly in profit). Tomorrow we are likely to see a more cautious market - which would mean some headwinds for AUD tomorrow.

We traded today's market well - we had very good timing and already positioned ourselves well yesterday.

Have a nice evening, Robert.

📣 We plan to launch the SmartTrader Community next Monday at the latest - VIP members will get access first.

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BUY NOW 🔼 Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸

► We see some profit taking ahead of the NYSE closing in New York and buy the dip to session lows of Amazon.

► Amazon came under pressure today on concerns that Walmart (and Costco) could become a bigger threat to the e-commerce giant given Walmart and Costco's impressive sales growth.

► Walmart significantly beat earnings and sales estimates for the quarter. The discount retailer reported growth among high-income customers and e-commerce growth of 22% for its US business - and thus faster sales growth than Amazon - at least in the e-commerce business.

►However, Amazon is much more than just e-commerce. The tech giant is outperforming both Microsoft and Google in its cloud business (AWS) and is experiencing rapid growth in its high-margin advertising business (24% year-on-year). AWS is benefiting massively from the large and growing demand for AI tools & services.

► Amazon has also succeeded in increasing operating margins and reducing costs - we buy the 1.3% decline in Amazon's share price and continue to see Amazon as attractive.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 290 - 320 (29,000% - 32,000%) trading with Amazon (AMZN)

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BUY NOW* 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸

► We are seeing the markets today that we expected - with slight additional gains at the beginning, but overall not broad gains and more caution as well as recurring profit-taking.

► It's still a historic day as the Dow Jones broke through the 40,000 level for the first time today. It has taken 872 trading sessions for the Dow to reach the next 10,000 milestone or or a 33% gain (from 30,000). Although in reality it makes no difference between 39999 and 40000, reaching the next 10,000 point milestone is certainly another sentimentally bullish boost for the markets.

Weak housing starts/building permits data today weighs on Home Depot (-1.5%) and Caterpillar (-2.7%), both down sharply and weighing on the Dow Jones, which is now trading near flat territory or almost 200 points below the new ATH reached today. Dow Jones heavyweights Amgen (- 1.6%), Salesforce and Visa are also trading at least 0.5% lower today, and Microsoft and Goldman Sachs are also down slightly. 8 of the 9 most important components in the Dow Jones are in negative territory - which offers room for recovery.

► We are now buying the Dow here almost 200 points below today's highs (range 39850 - 39900*) and expect another jump above 40000+ soon. The Nasdaq 100 (~18600) and the S&P 500 (~5300) are also at important levels that increase the chance of technical support.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
GBP/JPY

SL 🔑 @: 196.687
TP ✅ @: 196.987

We made a mega FX trade today with our GBP/JPY nearly 100 (!) pips in profit - we found the near perfect entry.

There was sharp mispricing in the JPY which gained during Asian trading despite GDP data from Japan (that came well below expectations and deep in recessionary territory) which makes it hard for the Bank of Japan to end it's ultra accommodative monetary policy.

Congratulations! We continue to trade the current markets exceptionally well. 👏

Our AUD/USD is slightly in profit - we stay LONG. Our gold position is deep in profit - we found the perfect entry.


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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

► Similar to yesterday, gold initially faced headwinds at the start of regular US trading, with the USD also rebounding slightly and yields cutting earlier sharp losses and heading back to the flat line.

► The gold price rose to almost $2,400 today (during Asian trading) before encountering resistance and some profit-taking due to a rebound in the USD after yesterday's sharp losses and sell orders in the area (= technical resistance). However, the USD continues to face headwinds after the latest US economic data, which argue for rate cuts later this year.

► We now see / saw gold falling back to near $2,370. We expect support in this area and are positioning LONG. The combination of stabilizing inflation and weakening economic data such as retail sales, GDP growth and labor market data is a good cocktail for further gold gains.

► In addition, we continue to see significantly lower yields in the US, which slipped sharply yesterday and in the previous week in particular.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯

We see a slightly positive opening on Wall Street, where investors, analysts and investment banks remain mostly optimistic about the current or ongoing rally and that the major central banks will move forward with rate cuts in the coming months.

🔹 Nasdaq (+ 0.1%) is opening only slightly higher (in regular trading). I expect gains in the growth sector / big tech, with the Nasdaq 100 moving higher in the first half of US trading (we are LONG).

🔹 Chevron (- 0.1%) is opening flat, but still has recovery potential. We have made nice gains with Chevron and found a good re-entry. We remain LONG and can set a TP ✅ @: 163.27 slightly above Friday's highs.

🔹 Meta (- 0.2%) opens slightly weaker, but we expect growth to stabilize and edge higher in early US trading. We maintain our TP.

► We are LONG positioned in Energy and in Growth / Big Tech with Meta. We are watching the NYSE opening and looking for good entry opportunities to continue positioning LONG. We expect the slight optimism to remain overall.

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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ volatile

► The gold price has completely lost the strong gains made during Asian trading and is now trading in the range $2,407 - $2,417 - well below today's high of $2,450.

► The improving risk sentiment in pre-market European/US trading with equities heading back towards their recent all-time highs is weighing on the safe haven of gold.

► Gold also recorded gains in Chinese trading as metal futures soared (copper to all-time highs) and also gave gold a tailwind - pushing it to ATH too. China is the largest consumer of gold and most other metals. Beijing's announcement on Friday that it would take "historic" steps to stabilize the crisis-ridden real estate sector caused optimism in the commodities sector.

► Gold remains attractive, but also volatile. We are trading gold slightly lower than usual due to the current high volatility.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD) - 2/3 trading size.

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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Monday, May 20

❗️ European stocks flat, Asia higher; Dow with record closing; Gold & copper at record levels

► European stocks remained steady with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index showing minimal movement (+0.1%). The mining sector provided some support as prices for copper and gold hit all-time highs. Conversely, the automotive and technology sectors lagged. Key developments included a 3.8% Y/Y rise in Italy’s construction output for March. Germany’s 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 2.53%, and the UK’s 10-year yield also rose by 1 basis point to 4.14%. All in all, it was a very quiet start to the week for European stocks.

► In the US, stock futures edged higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 40,000 for the first time last Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also posted slight gains. Investors remain focused on interest rates and inflation, looking forward to comments from several Federal Reserve officials this week. The 10-year Treasury yield remained steady at 4.42%.

► Asian markets advanced, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising for the seventh consecutive session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 increased by 0.73%, with investors awaiting a series of economic reports. China’s Shanghai Composite rose by 0.53% after the PBOC kept loan prime rates steady and announced measures to support the struggling property market. We also saw Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climb by 0.51%.

► The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the death of Iran's president and foreign minister in a helicopter crash, and health concerns over Saudi Arabia’s king, continue to influence market sentiment.

► In the commodities market, oil prices held their recent gains supported by political instability in major crude-producing regions. WTI Crude oil prices are trading at around $79.5/barrel. The gold price rose to an all-time high and now stands at $2,440/ounce, driven by continued optimism about possible interest rate cuts in the US later this year, falling yields and increasingly limited upside potential for equities.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

- no important, market-moving events today -

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

🌙 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 🇺🇸
☀️ Trip. com (TCOM) 🇨🇳
☀️ Li Auto (LI) 🇨🇳
☀️ Ryanair (RYAAY) 🇮🇪
🌙 Zoom Video (ZM) 🇺🇸
(...a few more with market cap <$20B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 05.04 - 09.05 (26 trading days)

138 / 168 = 82.1% Success Rate
(back above 82% 👍 very impressive)

✅ 10.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 79.389) 🔄
✅ 10.5 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (mini profit; SL - 412.82| or TP - 413.47)
✅ 10.5 - CRM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 277.97)
✅ 10.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 18111.60)
✅ 10.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2364.23)
❌ 10.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.08416)

5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate

(13.5 - trading pause)

14.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2365.26)
✅ 14.5 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 39500.3)
✅ 14.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 189.39)
✅ 14.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18250.3)
❌ 14.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18363.3)

3/5 = 60% Success Rate

15.5 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL – 103.523)
15.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP – 78.879)
✅ 15.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18548.9)
15.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP – 0.66997)
✅ 15.5 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 8239.8)
✅ 15.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2374.87)
✅ 15.5 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 617.97)
✅ 15.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 118.13)
15.5 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 619.77 |or TP 622.98) 🔄📸
✅ 15.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL – 18639.8)
✴️ 15.5 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)

10/11 - (1 open position)

We didn't trade much today as we have been still deep positioned from our increased trading activity on Wednesday and Thursday. It was still a great day as many of our open positioned closed (in profit) including our WTI LONG from last week Friday or our Netflix LONG (from Wednesday).

Congratulations!

I've also been a bit busy, as I've been working with our team today on our community, which will be launched on Monday - it's finally happening! 👉

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SELL NOW 🔽 AUD/USD

► We are seeing the markets we expected, with initial (slight) gains for equities and profit taking at the end of the week. It's a big disappointment to me that we haven't found a good entry point into gold - it's the asset we should have been in today (LONG) as risk sentiment has deteriorated and stocks found a ceiling - even though we see yields rising today as rate cut expectations are scaled back - which will give the USD a tailwind after the recent dip.

Gold is too hot now, but we find a good entry point here in the AUD/USD - we are now turning around and SHORT the pair after closing two LONGs in profit (yesterday & today).

► The AUD is performing well (also today and despite a deterioration in risk sentiment) thanks to a strong performance of commodities.

► The AUD also received a boost today from better-than-expected Chinese industrial production, which improved to 6.7% y-o-y, beating the expected 5.5% and previous data of 4.5%. However, Chinese data was mixed overall as retail sales growth was significantly slower than expected.

► Australian labor market data fell slightly short of expectations yesterday. Wages were still above inflation but rose at the slowest pace since the end of 2022.

► We are positioned SHORT in the range 0.66975 - 0.67040 - 60 pips above today's lows.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 1.15 - 1.25 (115% - 125%) when trading AUD/USD.

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Chevron (CVX) 🇺🇸
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸 (hit already my TP ✅ @: 39929.70)

We stay LONG in CVX - but have an in-profit SL. We found a solid entry yesterday.

My Dow Jones position hi already TP - for a nice small profit (40 points).


———

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Amazon
(AMZN) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 184.17
TP ✅ @: 185.68
(corrected)

We further reduce our LONG positioning and work with a tight (in-profit) SL for our Amazon position. We also set a relatively tight TP.

We found the perfect entry into Amazon yesterday shortly before NYSE closing.


———

🔤🔤🔤🔤📉

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Netflix
(NFLX) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 615.37
TP ✅ @: 619.77

We set an in-profit SL for our Netflix position and tighten out TP slightly. Netflix has been facing resistance near / above $620.00. If our tight TP (or SL) is triggered we can likely find a better re-entry again.

After recent strong recovery gains, Netflix sees waves of profit taking.


———

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📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈

‼️ Markets turn more cautious with markets repricing Fed rate outlook

Equity markets move below this week's new record highs
as bets on Fed policy easing are scaled back following rather hawkish comments from Fed officials, creating headwinds for growth/risk assets and bonds, pushing yields (as well as USD) slightly higher after the recent decline.

European and Asian equities fell slightly, while Wall Street is little changed after hitting new all-time highs in the previous session.

Reddit shares rose in pre-market trading following the announcement of a content partnership with OpenAI. Meanwhile, the meme craze continues: GameStop and AMC Entertainment shares fell sharply after the recent surge. Shares in Swiss luxury group and Cartier owner Richemont rose ~6% on Friday after the company reported record full-year sales. Richemont has also appointed Nicolas Bos, the CEO of Van Cleef & Arpels, as the group's new CEO.

We see a typical Friday caution, but this is also due to the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer. Swap markets are now expecting just over one rate cut in 2024 - versus expectations of 48-50bps after Wednesday's CPI data. In particular, hawkish comments from Fed officials that the Fed needs more evidence of disinflation have lowered rate cut expectations. Today will see further comments from Fed officials Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Sunday.

With signs of a slowdown in the US economy and a slowdown in Chinese retail sales, investors are concerned that the current restrictive policy could last too long. Stagflation concerns remain as inflation has cooled but is still well above the Fed's target rate.

However, we should not underestimate the resilience of the US equity market and the psychological effect of Wall Street hitting record highs again, including the Dow Jones crossing the 40K mark. I expect modest gains in early US trading, led by the Big Tech companies, before we see more caution and probably some profit taking before the end of the week.

The overall still positive risk sentiment is also evident in commodity prices, with oil and industrial metals and cryptocurrencies supported. Gold is rising again after a slight decline in the last session and will continue to benefit from uncertainty about the outlook and further upside potential for equities.

Although expectations for a rate cut have been scaled back slightly, the market is generally anticipating a weakening of macroeconomic conditions that will ultimately help the US Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy later this year.


👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:

May 17, 2024


🌐/🇺🇸 Global Markets ↗️/➡️ (slight gains with more caution in second half of US trading)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ↗️/➡️/↘️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️
/➡️
Financial Stocks ↗️
/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ↗️
/➡️
Materials Stocks ↗️
/➡️

💱 Forex
USD ↗️/➡️ (trimming losses from earlier this week / overall, however, USD no longer bullish)
AUD, CAD ➡️ (slight headwinds from worsened risk sentiment; benefiting from higher commodity prices)
EUR, GBP ➡️
JPY, CHF ↘️/➡️

⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/↕️
Oil prices ↗️/➡️
Natural Gas prices ↗️
/↕️
Metal prices ↗️
/➡️
Gold ↗️
/➡️

⚡️Cryptos ↗️/↕️ (remaining in the range $64K - $67K - but soon testing the $67K)

(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)

Your Robert

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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Friday, May 17

❗️ Dialed-down bets for Fed policy easing weighs on risk sentiment; Signs of economic weakness in China

European stocks retreated for a second consecutive day, with the Stoxx 600 index falling by 0.4%. This decline follows a record nine-day winning streak, influenced by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing. Luxury group Richemont gained over 6% after a management reshuffle, while major banks continued their upward trend, gaining 21% so far this year. However, broader market sentiment was dampened by the repricing of rate cut expectations. Investors reduced Fed rate cut expectations despite Fed friendly data partially due to rather hawkish statement from Fed officials. Investors await Eurozone inflation data and further comments from Fed officials and European Central Bank policymakers for clues on future interest rate paths.

US futures declined after retreating from record highs in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The USD and Treasuries held steady amid cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Earnings reports have shown a majority of companies beating expectations, helping to stabilize markets despite concerns over prolonged high interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Sunday will be pivotal in shaping market expectations.

► Asian equities saw declines due to signs of economic weakness in China. China's industrial production in April grew more than anticipated at 6.7% Y/Y, but retail sales and fixed asset investment missed forecasts. The unemployment rate in China fell to 5% (at least according to official data), and the government announced significant measures to support the housing market, including easing mortgage rules and launching a $138 billion bond issuance for infrastructure spending. The Bank of Japan maintains bond buying targets, weakening the JPY against the USD.

► Commodities were broadly higher, with WTI Crude oil climbing to $79/barrel. Gold prices rose again and stay above $2,380/oz, after a drop yesterday, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting and statements of Fed officials. Our chief analyst expects Fed officials to acknowledge the cooling economic data in the coming days, which is moving towards the Fed's desired level, but that they still want to see more data with a similar trend. Bitcoin is trading above $65,000, reversing a previous decline, indicating renewed interest in cryptocurrencies while the stock market is at high levels and struggling to extend levels in the short term.


Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

🔸 🇨🇳 Industrial Production - 02:00 (released)
♦️ 🇨🇳 Retail Sales - 02:00 (released)
🔸 🇨🇳 Unemployment Rate - 02:00 (released)
🔸 🇨🇳 NBS Press Conference - 02:00 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 Unemployment Rate - 05:30 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 Inflation Rate / CPI - 09:00 (released)

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀️ Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFRUY) 🇨🇭(released)
☀️ Zurich Insurance Group (ZURVY) 🇨🇭
(...a few more with market cap <$20B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

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Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 04.04 - 08.05 (26 trading days)

138 / 169 = 81.7% Success Rate

9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2314.73)
✅ 9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2329.23)
9.5 - META - LONG ↗️ (TP - 476.97)
❌ 9.5 - SHOP - LONG ↗️ (SL - 59.77)
✅ 9.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2332.48)
✅ 9.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL – 18183.70)

5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate

✴️ 10.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 77.430 🔄 // TP@: 79.389 🔄
✅ 10.5 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (mini profit; SL - 412.82| or TP - 413.47)
✅ 10.5 - CRM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 277.97)
✅ 10.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 18111.60)
✅ 10.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2364.23)
❌ 10.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.08416)

4/6 - (1 open position)

(13.5 - trading pause)

14.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2365.26)
✅ 14.5 - US30 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 39500.3)
✅ 14.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 189.39)
✅ 14.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18250.3)
❌ 14.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18363.3)

3/5 = 60% Success Rate

While our WTI trade from yesterday closed deep in profit (hit TP ✅ at 78.879), our WTI position from Friday is still open. You can tighten your SL & TP slightly. WTI rose (again) to breakeven today, but hit resistance at 79.300 (spot).

You can find the current positions now on our website. We will continue to improve our current positions page - as it is not me who updates the data (but our content manager), there may be slight delays: Save the LINK 🔗: https://smarttrader.community/current-trades-from-robert-lindner/

PS: With some brokers - our TP (79.417) was already hit for our WTI position from Friday at around 13:30 UTC+0 - certainly if you traded the June contract (instead of spot) 👏

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones
(US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 39953.40
TP ✅ @: 40046.90 (optional)

Unreal timing - congratulations 🎯 We found the perfect entry after the Dow Jones fell almost 200 points from a new ATH.

We now see the Dow Jones back near 40K - one hour before NYSE closing. The rebound before the end of the regular session shows that the Wall Street remains resilient.

We set an in-profit SL and an optional TP.


———

🎯💯

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

SL 🔑 @: 2378.87
TP ✅ @: 2387.43

We see yields in positive territory now providing slight fundamental headwinds to gold.

We found the perfect entry after gold hit resistance near $2,400, then saw additional profit taking and some headwinds from a temporary rebound of the USD.

Our timing with gold remains exceptional.


PS: Many of you have already earned several times average annual salary with our gold trades this year alone. If possible, please share some of your profits that we make with gold (and will continue to make in the future) with people in need ❤️ Nobody trades gold as successfully in the short term as we do, with a success rate of near 90% in 2024.


———

23.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
25.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
29.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
❌ 30.04 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 02.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 03.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 03.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 06.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 06.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 07.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 08.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 09.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 09.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 09.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.05 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
❌ 14.05 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 15.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
(✅)✴️ 16.05 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL in Profit)

19/21 = 90.5% Success Rate

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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

SL 🔑 @: 18639.80
TP ✅ @: 18692.70

Wall Street moved in regular US trading exactly as we expected - edging slightly further up (to new ATHs) - supported by additional gains (= outperformance) of Big Tech.

We now set a tight SL and TP.

Our CAC position is currently off-profit - we stay LONG. Industrial / luxury (= cyclical stocks) saw some headwinds in Paris today but we generally see still optimistic investors in Europe. Additional gains in New York will provide support for Asia / Europe. Meta remains flat and Chevron hovers near our entry price ~$161.00 - we stay LONG.


———

🇺🇸🖥📈
1️⃣8️⃣7️⃣0️⃣0️⃣

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BUY NOW* 🔼 AUD/USD

► Both AUD trades closed in profit 📸, with the AUD/JPY hitting our tight SL and the AUD/USD hitting the TP at 0.66997 for a big gain. The pair continued to rise and broke through the 0.67000 level, but then fell back almost 50 pips in Asian/European trading.

► We expect the USD to weaken further after a slew of US economic data (notably the May 3 NFPs and yesterday's CPI data) reinforced expectations that conditions for a rate cut are approaching due to a cooling of consumer prices and the US economy as well as an easing of the tight labor market.

► At 222,000, the number of applications for unemployment benefits was close to expectations (220,000) and continues to paint a picture of an easing labor market. Building permits and housing starts also show a cooling of the real estate market in the US. These are all additional headwinds for the USD. We also see that yields continue to trend downwards: We re-enter the AUD/USD and find an entry in the range 0.66550 - 0.66650*.

► The AUD is currently the weakest major currency (for today) and has recovery potential. The AUD will benefit from the current increased risk appetite.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 1.15 - 1.25 (115% - 125%) when trading AUD/USD.

Signal DELAYED by: 90+ (!) minutes! ⚠️⚠️⚠️
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