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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: 2354.87
Our gold position is back (near) break-even / slightly in profit. We set a tight TP now for our gold position and close slightly in profit during increased NYSE opening volatility. We can find a better re-entry price.
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BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
► Asian shares are little changed after yesterday's very positive start. European equities are continuing yesterday's recovery with a gain of 0.2% (Stoxx Europe 600 - 0.1%). We also see futures higher on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 0.2% higher (compared to Friday; slightly above the previous highs reached yesterday during off-market trading). The Nasdaq 100 is up 0.4% and just 30 points off its all-time high as growth and technology stocks outperform. The Dow Jones, on the other hand, is in the red currently falling below 39100.
► We won't see major bets ahead of key inflation data, but we do see lower yields, which shows that investors are not pricing in a big expectation. Rate cut expectations hit a low on Thursday after hot US economic data reinforced expectations that the Fed sees no conditions for a rate cut for a long time - possibly an acceleration in inflation.
► We expect light dip buying and an extension of gains from Friday. The Dow Jones remains the strong underperformer today, weighed down by underperformance in defensive / healthcare stocks. We are getting into the Dow here - some of last week's heavy losers, such as Boeing, have stabilized and have significant recovery potential.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
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✅ 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2341.43)
✅ 24.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39183.4)
✅ 24.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 189.98)
✅ 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️(TP - 2346.70|or clsd* ~2335) 🔄📸
✴️ 24.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - near break-even)
(✅)✴️ 24.5- SPX500- LONG ↗️ (open - SL in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 5313.40| TP ✅ @: 5324.20
5/6 - (2 open positions / *slightly off-profit if manual close)
TODAY :
✅ 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2345.79) 📸
✴️ 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - break-even)
1/2 - (1 open position)
It wasn't a real trading day today, but we benefited from the few price movements and benefited from a (for us) positive opening of the markets - Our gold position, hit our very well placed TP (unless you closed with a small loss on Friday). Our S&P 500 is also well in profit, especially considering the US stock markets remained closed today. Given today's solid gains in oil and fuel prices (stagnant natural gas prices) at the start of the summer driving season in the US, XOM is likely to open well tomorrow (Shell on Euronext Amsterdam 🇳🇱 closed 0.5% higher, Total on Euronext Paris 🇫🇷 0.6% higher, for example).
I'm not too happy about our second entry in gold - it would have been better to find a re-entry in the $2,345 - $2,350 range (or on our first gold position with a looser SL), but given some signs of temporary weakness in the USD, we should be able to close our gold position tomorrow with a profit (near $2,360) - after-hours trading (gold) possible again from 22:00 UTC+0.
Have a pleasant evening!
Robert 🤝
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
S&P 500 (SPX500) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 5313.40
TP ✅ @: 5324.20
We further tighten our SL for our S&P 500 position. The S&P 500 broke the 5320 - is now up more than 0.35% for the day.
We tighten our SL and put the TP slightly before the 5325 - 5330 - where it hit some resistance lately.
Congratulations - that's a great / rare profit with a US future on a day in which the Wall Street remained closed !
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
S&P 500 (SPX500) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 5308.70
TP ✅ @: 5322.40
Our S&P 500 is well in profit. We tighten our SL / give the S&P 500 slightly more room to rise.
———
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📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈
‼️ Markets flat with thin trading; Europe little changed but inflation concerns rise
After a week of significant losses and thin trading, European equities struggled to recover on Monday. The ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, warned that monetary policy would need to remain tight throughout the year, pointing to growing concerns that inflation could accelerate again not only in the US but also in Europe.
However, equity markets in Asia started the week well with all major Asian equity futures broadly higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted its biggest gain since May 16. US equity futures are little changed, as is the USD, as the UK and US markets were closed for the holidays.
After last week's better than expected US economic data, we see the market reassessing rate cut expectations while fearing that companies will continue to raise rates and labor markets will remain tight, which could slow or even reverse the recent disinflation.
The week is off to a slow start as earnings season comes to a close. The main focus this week will be on inflation data from Australia, Japan, the Eurozone and the US. The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation (PCE) will be released on Friday and is expected to show a slight slowdown - however, signs of renewed acceleration and concerns that inflation will remain a major issue for longer could lead to further profit-taking.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized that the Fed needs more evidence that inflation is on track to reach the 2% target before easing policy. Fed representatives Williams, Cook, Kashkari and Logan are among the Fed officials due to speak this week.
Meanwhile, gold prices rose slightly, while iron ore and copper futures fell. Oil prices are also edging higher after their biggest weekly loss in four years, with the focus on Sunday's OPEC+ supply meeting and how much US demand will rise at the start of the summer driving season.
We will see the markets moving sideways. We see some assets like gold or oil in technical oversold territory, which will lead to some dip buying. Overall, however, the market is now more nervous about the increasing signs that inflation will remain a problem for longer, which would further delay rate cuts. Today's small moves are not indicative of how the markets will perform over the course of the week.
👁 ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
⚠️ US/UK markets remain closed resulting in thin trading / volatility
May 27, 2024
🌐 Global Markets ↗️/➡️ (slight dip buying after last week's sell-off)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks ➡️
Tech/Growth Stocks ↗️/➡️
Financial Stocks ↗️/➡️
Defensive Stocks ➡️
Energy Stocks ➡️ (remains oversold)
Materials Stocks ↗️/➡️
💱 Forex
AUD ↗️ (rebounding after last week's losses; benefiting from improved risk sentiment)
GBP ↗️/➡️ (benefiting from improved risk sentiment, hotter-than-expected inflation)
CAD ↗️/➡️
EUR, CHF, JPY ➡️
USD ↘️/➡️ (giving back some of last weeks gains today, downside limited)
⚒ Commodity Markets ↗️/➡️
Oil prices ↗️/➡️ (rebound from technically oversold territory)
Natural Gas prices ↗️/↕️
Metal prices ↗️/➡️
Gold ↗️/➡️ (rebound from technically oversold territory)
⚡️Cryptos ↕️ (btc moving in the range $67K - $70K for now after ETF hype eased / general outlook rather bullish)
(*↗️ bullish, ↘️ bearish, ➡️ sideways / stable, ↕️ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, May 27
❗️ Asian stocks higher while European stocks little changed amid thin trading; US & UK markets closed for holidays
► European equity futures were flat today as investors remain cautious ahead of this week’s economic data releases. The Stoxx 600 index saw little movement, reflecting a wait-and-see approach from investors and overall thin trading. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates for the first time since concluding an unprecedented tightening campaign at its June meeting.
► In the US, all major stock markets are closed for Memorial Day, providing a break after strong economic data influenced investor sentiment last week. US stock futures remained steady, showing little movement. The USD weakened slightly on Monday after gains in the previous week. US officials are moving toward a pivot at a slower pace, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressing the need for more evidence that inflation is on a sustained path to their 2% goal before cutting the policy benchmark. Investors are closely watching for the PCE price index report later this week, which is expected to provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding monetary policy. The Fed’s favorite measure of underlying inflation is due Friday and may indicate a cooling in price pressures, bolstering hopes for a rate cut.
► Asian shares recorded their biggest gains in a week with optimism returning supported by a strong earnings season, improving economic data and still optimistic investors for at least a single rate cut in the US later this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose significantly, led by gains in Hong Kong, China, and Japan. Japan's Nikkei 225 increased by 0.66%, boosted by positive industrial profit data from China and supportive remarks from Bank of Japan officials. China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.98%, driven by a 4.3% year-on-year increase in industrial profits for the first four months of the year. We also saw Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advance 1.24%.
► Oil prices moved slightly higher after experiencing their largest weekly loss in four weeks, with the focus shifting to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2 where supply cuts will be discussed. WTI Crude oil is currently trading at around $77.8/barrel. Gold prices increased slightly to above $2,340/oz, reflecting investor caution and demand for safe-haven assets amidst market uncertainties, Israeli bombing in Gaza and ahead of the Fed's key inflation data release later this week. Gold is also seeing general dip buying after last week's significant profit taking.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇺🇸 Memorial Day Holiday - ALL DAY
🔸 🇬🇧 Bank Holiday - ALL DAY
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No Significant earnings reports
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
✅ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2362.27)
❌ 23.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39348.3)
❌ 23.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.66147 )
❌ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (CLSD ~2349.67 | 2349 - 2354)
✴️ 23.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 179.83 | TP ✅ @: 183.97
✅ 23.5 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 199.17) 🔄 📸
✅ 23.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18822.3)
✅ 23.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 77.497) 🔄📸
✅ 23.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 18602.6)
✴️ 23.5 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 1.27622 | TP ✅ @: 1.27011
✅ 23.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (SL -114.29| or TP - 114.97) 📸📸
6/11 - (2 open positions)
TODAY :
✅ 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2341.43) 📸
✅ 24.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39183.4) 📸
✅ 24.5 - APPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 189.98) 📸
✴️ 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit|or clsd 2334-2336)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 2318.89 | TP ✅ @: 2346.70
✴️ 24.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - near break-even)
✴️ 24.5- SPX500- LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
3/6 - (3 open positions)
Do any of you know what XAU/USD stands for? Anyway ... we maneuvered well through the very chaotic fluctuations and actually made very solid decisions. It was a great day and our positioning yesterday (with the exception of XAU/USD) was very positive. Our GBP/USD isn't great now that yields have stabilized for now, but the GBP/USD generally has some room to cool off again. You can work with an SL to limit losses. We'll see a very slow start to next week, but we generally see enough reasons not to get bearish overall - partly because investors have realized that the Fed's rate cuts aren't really necessary (for now).
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
You can close here with a small loss and reduce your risk. There is also a third option - namely to work with a tight TP at 2338.87.
Gold will rebound potentially back to range 2370 - 2400 - but we could see further losses on Monday. Hold only if the potential losses don't "hurt" you significantly. We had a good trading day, closing gold here with a small loss is perfectly fine 👍
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BUY NOW* 🔼 S&P 500 (SPX500) 🇺🇸
► We expect stocks to continue to trim losses from yesterday's sharp sell-off after the surprisingly strong US purchasing managers' index significantly reduced rate cut expectations. We saw the Nasdaq 100 was less than 100 points away from its ATH on Nvidia/AI enthusiasm. The S&P 500 and especially the Dow Jones still have significantly more room back to ATHs.
► The Dow Jones was hit by further and heavy losses from Salesforce ahead of its earnings report. I'm actually bullish on CRM's earnings report, but the massive insider selling from both CEO Marc Benioff and COO Brian Millham seems to indicate that they expect a more negative performance after the results.
► Ahead of the long weekend, trading was mostly cautious today (but with gains overall). There was also positive economic data again today: Durable goods orders rose by 0.8% instead of the -0.1% decline expected by analysts. Data from the University of Michigan shows that consumers in the US expect prices to rise by 3.3 % next year, compared with the 3.5 % expected at the beginning of the month - which is good news for equities.
► Although inflation expectations remain well above the Fed's target, there is not much scope for a further reduction in rate cut expectations, as the markets are now only pricing in a rate cut for 2024.
► We are positioning LONG in the S&P 500, which has "only" half recovered from yesterday's sharp fall (from yesterday's high / which was also an ATH). We probably would have seen a stronger recovery today if it wasn't a Friday before a long weekend.
►Importantly, yields are flat/slightly lower, which is taking pressure off growth and tech stocks. Nvidia's mega-report on Wednesday also continues to support stocks. We are positioning ourselves LONG below 5300* (range 5290 - 5298). We see a quiet start to the coming week: US markets closed on Monday, but also no important US economic data on Tuesday and Wednesday - which limits headwind potential.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 25 - 30 (2,500% - 3,000%) when trading the S&P500 (SPX500)
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 199.17
TP ✅ @: 199.93
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 39183.40
TP ✅ @: 39286.70
Apple already hit our TP at $190 (189.98). We slightly update our JPMorgan position which is also near our TP and near $200.
Also our WTI position hit our TP (77.497) for a nice profit.
We secure nice profits with our Dow Jones LONG.
———
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⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
► We see yields stabilizing - with signs of edging a bit lower after earlier rising nearly 3bps (for the 2y and 10y). This reduces the fundamental headwinds on gold. We also don't see a stronger USD - which weighed yesterday on commodity prices.
► Gold fell now below $2,340 again after hitting a peak of $2,347 during increased volatility at NYSE opening . We want to get back near $2,337* and expect gold to overall benefit from still ongoing cautious trading and ahead of the long week-end. China saying that military drills encircling Taiwan is designed to test its ability to "seize power" is increasing geopolitical tensions.
►The fact that gold already hit $2,347 - more than $20 above today's bottom (during Asian trading / near $2,325) reduces concerns of more panic selling. Technically, gold is oversold.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
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Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
CLOSED // for me in TP ✅ @: 2341.73
We see gold at session highs now, but we can likely find a better entry later today - it is fundamentally right to get out again (for now). We'll be watching yields, which are currently slightly higher and point to further modest gains (fundamental headwinds for gold).
If you're still in - you can close a bit better - at near $2,344 (currently)
Most of you have a better initial entry.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2333.43
TP ✅ @: 2341.34
GBP/USD
TP ✅ @: 1.27011
At +0.7% (MoM), new orders for durable goods were above analysts' low expectations (-0.8%), but market expectations ("Street Expectations") were probably already much higher given yesterday's strong PMIs. We therefore see little overall reaction (to rate cut expectations, USD, yields).
We now see a more stable market. We continue to set a tight TP for our gold position and also for GBP/USD, which did not reach our TP in overnight trading. We remain LONG in WTI.
⚡️ LIVE TRADING 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
► We buy the still very underperforming Dow Jones which dipped now slightly to ~39100. The 30-stock Dow slid already 605.78 points, or 1.53% yesterday and has thus underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq strongly - which is also due to the fact that yesterday's top performer Nvidia is not part of the Dow Jones (not yet! - quite possible soon after the stock split)
► We saw no panic reaction to durable goods orders showing more stable market sentiment. We expect a solid performance from yesterday's underperforming defensive stocks, cyclicals and financials. We are LONG in the banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
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📊 ROB’S DAILY UPDATE 📈
‼️ Wall Street with recovery attempt after sell-off due to reduced rate cut bets
After the previous day's losses, which were triggered by the expectation that the first interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve will be postponed until December, futures on Wall Street are trading higher in pre-market US trading on Friday. Shares in Europe are also cutting their losses after yesterday's poor performance, following heavy profit-taking in New York.
Yesterday's sell-off in New York was triggered by surprisingly strong US purchasing managers' indices for the services and manufacturing sectors, which showed the fastest growth in two years - in stark contrast to expectations that economic activity would continue to cool slowly. The exceptionally strong US economic data has reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut.
We expect tech stocks to lead the gains, which are already helping the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 to trade around 0.3% higher. Chip stocks such as Micron or AMD and also Nvidia are leading the gains after Nvidia again reported breakthrough results with its AI-related products. The European Stoxx 600 opened 0.8% lower but is now down 0.4%, having trimmed its losses.
The USD stabilized but is still on track for its biggest weekly gain since early April. Yields are also largely stable and are slightly below the levels reached shortly after the PMI.
Expectations of interest rate cuts continue to move the markets. The Fed meeting minutes (unsurprisingly) indicate that the FOMC is in no rush to cut rates. We are now even seeing a slight increase in rate hike expectations - which I think is unlikely, but it shows that the market is continuing to reduce expectations that the current tight situation could ease any time soon.
While we have seen a sharp sell-off, the strong purchasing managers' indices show that US businesses and consumers are robust. The expectation of lower interest rate cuts will soon be fully priced in and the focus will shift back to the predominantly good corporate earnings and solid forecasts.
I expect market sentiment to improve again today - even if higher than expected new orders for durable goods (April) could rekindle concerns about a prolonged rate hike. Expectations for new orders for durable goods (MoM) are -0.8 MoM, which leaves room for a "positive" surprise - although this would then be received negatively again.
However, markets tend to take a breather before a long holiday weekend. On Monday, Memorial Day, the US markets will be closed. UK markets will also remain closed on Monday. We are also seeing trade tensions between the US and China and heightened concerns about escalating tensions between China and Taiwan.
After a sharp sell-off/technical correction, but also due to fundamental headwinds from further lowered rate cut expectations, gold seems to have found a bottom and is likely to see some demand today ahead of the long weekend. Oil is also still trading near its lowest level in over three months. Memorial Day weekend usually marks the start of the summer driving season in the US, which is associated with increased oil/fuel consumption.
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ EUR/USD
► We see the EUR/USD near 1.08900 - a level last reached in a short-term spike on May 16 and before that in mid-March. After three days in which the USD gave back last week's gains, we see the EUR/USD just a few pips away from 1.09000 after expectations rose that the ECB will also slow rate cuts in the face of rising inflation uncertainty. The (VIP ONLY) will stick to its hawkish rhetoric after recent (VIP ONLY) ...
► The ECB is in (VIP ONLY) position (VIP ONLY) the ECB's 2% target. A first rate cut next week seems to be (VIP ONLY). After that, the focus will of course (VIP ONLY). It is also (VIP ONLY) ...
► As the US markets were closed yesterday and the calendar was rather empty today, the USD and yields were able to pare back their recent gains. (VIP ONLY) PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, remain hopeful for signs of disinflation, we are likely to see more (VIP ONLY) ...
► We (VIP ONLY) 1.08900. The (VIP ONLY) rate cut expectations and likely more hawkish comments (VIP ONLY) ...
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Tuesday, May 28
❗️ European stocks, US futures try to extend recovery gains; Wall Street move to T+1 poses some risks for foreign investors, USD buyers
► European shares showed mixed performance today, mirroring the slight gains seen in Asian markets. The European Stoxx 600 experienced minimal change (+ 0.1%). Investors remain concerned about inflation ahead of the ECB's CPI expectations release and in particular the US PCE data and the implications on rate cuts (for the ECB as well as the Fed).
► US stock futures showed slight increases as markets reopened following the holiday weekend. S&P 500 futures by 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.5%. The USD slipped for the third consecutive day, reflecting cautious but rather positive sentiment ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE data (on Friday). Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield holding falling 2 bp. The market is watching for comments from several Federal Reserve officials this week.
► When US traders return from the long weekend, they will also be watching for problems related to the switch to the "T+1" rule, in which US (as well as Canadian, Mexican) stocks settle on one day instead of two. There are concerns about potential teething problems, such as international investors struggling to raise dollars in time, global funds accessing their assets at different rates and everyone having less time to fix mistakes.
► Asian shares are mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is flat. China’s property shares initially surged but later fell as major cities adjusted mortgage policies. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped by 0.11%, while China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.35%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined by 0.11%. Australia’s ASX 200 rose by 0.15% despite retail sales growing by only 0.1% in April, falling short of expectations. Japan’s April producer prices also increased by 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts.
► In commodities, oil prices held their gains, with WTI Crude oil trading close to $78.8/barrel due to heightened tensions in the Middle East. Investors are looking ahead to the OPEC+ supply meeting on Sunday and the start of the summer driving season in the U.S. Gold prices are slightly lower after gains yesterday currently trading near $2,343/oz.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇦🇺 Retail Sales - 01:30 (released)
🔸 🇨🇦 PPI - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 14:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 15.04 - 20.05 (26 trading days)
130/156 = 83.3% Success Rate
(April 12 - 5/10 = 50% SR dropped out)
✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2433.47)
✅ 21.5 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 180.02|*w/ re-entry in profit)
✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2421.57)
✅|(❌*) 21.5 - USD/CAD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.36847| or SL - 1.36297*)
4/4 = 100% Success Rate (or 75% if USD/CAD loss)
❌ 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL -2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390)
✅ 22.5 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (CLSD ~77.251)
❌(✅*) 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️(SL 2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390*)
✅ 22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18686.10)
✅ 22.5 - GS - LONG ↗️ (SL - 462.79 |or TP - 462.73)
✅ 22.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39738.7)
4/6 = 66.7% Success Rate (or 83.3% if * in profit)
✅ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2362.27)
❌ 23.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39348.3)
❌ 23.5 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 0.66147 )
❌ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (CLSD ~2349.67 | 2349 - 2354)
✴️ 23.5 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 179.83 | TP ✅ @: 183.97
✅ 23.5 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 199.17)
✅ 23.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18822.3)
✅ 23.5 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 77.497)
✅ 23.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 18602.6)
❌ 23.5 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.27622) 🔄
✅ 23.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (SL -114.29| or TP - 114.97)
6/11 - (1 open position)
Not much to report today. The USD gave back (more) of last week's gains and the GBP also benefited from a general improvement in risk sentiment following solid gains in Asian equity markets and signs of a recovery attempt in Europe/the US. We saw very thin trading today with major markets remaining closed (US, UK).
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
► Gold trades almost 1% higher but encounters resistance at $2.358 - $2.360 and is now trading in a narrow range. We see technical higher lows and continued dip buying with only short profit taking. Other precious metals are performing much better than gold today - silver is up more than 4% and platinum (+2.8%) and palladium (+3.5%) are also much more in recovery mode than gold.
► Fundamentally, we see cautious signs of falling yields, as European bond yields have fallen by around 3-5 basis points. The USD also gave back some of last week's gains.
► We are also generally seeing dip buying in equities - Asian equities in particular rallied strongly today - but equities in Europe and the US (US futures) are also pointing to a slight recovery. Our S&P 500 is now well in profit and close to our TP.
► We can buy the mini dip here back to / below $2,353 and benefit from gold catching up with the other precious metals. We also see copper and aluminum higher today (both up about +1.5%).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
S&P 500 (SPX500) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 5304.90
TP ✅ @: 5319.70
We do not want to overtrade today's sideways market, which is only supported by thin trading.
We can lock in profits with the S&P 500 - we found the near perfect entry by taking advantage of the short dip on Friday just before the close. We see that stocks are still oversold and there are signs of further dip buying. We also set a relatively tight TP.
If our tight SL is triggered, we may find a better re-entry - we continue to see very thin trading, which is likely to become even thinner after the European close.
———
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2345.79
TP ✅ @: 2352.44
OR
CLOSE NOW / SOON ✅ @: 2349.40 - 2349.90
Gold broke out above the highs reached in Asian trading and as expected saw some dip buying in an overall very quiet market. We are seeing technical dip buying after last week's sharp decline after gold hit a new ATH near $2,450.
It will take some time for gold to reach even $2,400, which means we now need to trade with smaller gains and prepare for profit taking waves.
If US economic data continues to outperform, the fundamental pressure on gold will continue. Gold is technically oversold.
We are working with a tight SL & TP or close now at $2,350. We can find a better re-entry.
——-
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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
► We see European equities little changed at the start of the week in very thin trading, as the markets in the UK and the US remain closed for the holiday. US equity futures remain unchanged, the USD little changed and the US Treasury market also remains closed.
► Our Gold LONG from Friday hit our TP 📸 in early Asian trading. Gold has been (technically) oversold after a technical pullback last week, but this was also accompanied by fundamental pressure following signs of a renewed acceleration in the US economy and concerns about a return of inflation. Rate cut expectations have fallen to their lowest level in 12+ months.
► With equities largely moving sideways and some calm returning, as well as a generally slow start to the week (both today and tomorrow), we will see some dip buying in gold - the long-term outlook for gold is too attractive.
► We are positioning ourselves LONG again well below our triggered TP (range $2,340 - $2,342.50). There is still a long way to go for gold back towards the ATH.
► Gold also sees increased safe-haven demand after Israel continued bombing in Gaza, killing around 200 Palestinians, and international tensions against Israel continue to rise in the region, but also within Israel, as talks to free the hostages fail and more and more believe that a "total victory" over Hamas is impossible.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-
🥇📉📉📉❌
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Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 12.04 - 17.05 (26 trading days)
133 / 162 = 82.1% Success Rate
(April 11 - 5/6 = 83.3% SR dropped out)
✅ 20.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18699.30)
✅ 20.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2432.84)
❌ 20.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39846.90)
❌ 20.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2421.93 | or TP - 2433.47)
2/4 = 50% Success Rate
✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2433.47)
✅ 21.5 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 180.02|*w/ re-entry in profit)
✅ 21.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2421.57)
✅|(❌*) 21.5 - USD/CAD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 1.36847| or SL - 1.36297*)
4/4 = 100% Success Rate (or 75% if USD/CAD loss)
❌ 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL -2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390)
✅ 22.5 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (CLSD ~77.251)
❌(✅*) 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️(SL 2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390*)
✅ 22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18686.10)
✅ 22.5 - GS - LONG ↗️ (SL - 462.79 |or TP - 462.73) 🔄
✅ 22.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 39738.7)
4/6 = 66.7% Success Rate (or 83.3% if * in profit)
It could have been worse, I guess. In a world where there is no gold, we would have actually done pretty damn well this chaotic week ;) But then again, gold has been great for us all year ... so let's let gold continue to exist. We could have stayed LONG in a Wall Street bank (as JPM also closed in profit) - which continue to do well in the current environment of continued growth and high interest rates (unless it's a bank with heavy exposure to commercial real estate 📉)
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
CLOSE NOW/SOON ✅ @: 2334 - 2336
OR
SL 🔑 @: 2318.89 (Do not risk more than 2-4% of your balance)
TP ✅ @: 2346.70
The outlook for gold is not great as sentiment for the yellow precious metal is short-term seriously dented even with gold being in short-term strongly oversold conditions.
It has been a disappointing performance of gold, given that the USD slightly weakened today and yields stabilized, even fell slightly. Not even rising geopolitical tensions or the general uncertainty, or typical Friday buying helped gold much today.
A strong rebound in market sentiment will not be supportive for gold next week. This week's economic data has vanished hopes for two rate cuts this year. Swap Markets still expect still a bit more than one rate cut this year. I think the most likely scenario is no rate cut. Rates remaining higher for longer weigh strongly on non-yielding gold as it makes holding gold more expensive.
You may choose to go out here (with slight losses) - I see significant risks that gold falls further early next week. Given the very sharp losses, however, a short-term slight rebound is likely but it will take time some time for gold to reach recent highs again (or even reach 2400 again). Alternatively you work with a not too tight SL and close in the next rebound which will likely come early next week.
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
► We are getting back into (VIP ONLY), with the (VIP ONLY) underperforming again today as investors focus on technology, growth and financial stocks.
► (VIP ONLY) recovered from heavy losses today but hit resistance at $(VIP ONLY)...
► We now see (VIP ONLY) at $(VIP ONLY) near yesterday's lows. Headwinds came from (VIP ONLY), which turned from (VIP ONLY) to a drop of 3%. On the other hand, (VIP ONLY)...
► We saw strong US economic data (again), which is usually positive for (VIP ONLY), but also reduces the expectation of a rate cut - which always means headwinds for (VIP ONLY). There was also a strong durable goods orders report today. (Consumer) inflation expectations were surprisingly at 3.3% in April (vs. 3.5% expected), but still above consumer expectations.
► We find (VIP ONLY) attractive at $(VIP ONLY) and go LONG again.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-
This is a strong trade with excellent timing - don't miss it! ❌
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Goldman Sachs (GS) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 462.79
TP ✅ @: 464.87
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 198.89
TP ✅ @: 199.77
Apple (APPL) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 188.87
TP ✅ @: 189.98
We made strong value bets yesterday and benefit from the mixed markets today. Our ExxonMobil position closed already in profit (either at SL 114.29 or TP 114.97). We now secure big profits with our bank LONGs - GS may have already hit your (optional) TP (462.73). Also today's NYSE opening trade Apple is well in profit and strongly outperforming Wall Street (currently up 1.5%). We expected Apple to find support near $188.00 - the perfect prediction.
Congratulations - exceptional stock picking in this sentiment driven market.
———-
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BUY WHEN* NYSE OPENED 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
🔹 The Dow Jones (+0.20%) ist trying to trim some of yesterdays very strong losses (-600 points). The Dow Jones has underperformed yesterday - due to not benefiting from Nvidia's strong gains. We are LONG and remain LONG for now. You can set a TP at ✅ @: 39286.70
🔹 Amazon (+0.4%) opens higher. Amazon was relative resilient yesterday in comparison to the other big tech stocks / growth stocks. We set an in-profit TP ✅ @: 183.97 and our SL slight below 180 🔑 @: 179.83
🔹 ExxonMobil (+0.8%) opens higher after late pre-market gains - likely above $114.00. Energy remains oversold. We see a rebound in oil / gas prices. We give XOM room to rebound. We can set a TP at ✅ @: 114.97
🔹 Goldman Sachs (+0.2%) opens slightly higher and will try to push back above 460. We can (optional) set a TP at ✅ @: 462.73
🔹 JPMorgan (+0.2%) opens similarly to Goldman Sachs and will try to move back into the $197.50 - $199.00 range.
► We trade (VIP ONLY) at the NYSE opening. And see the (VIP ONLY) continuing to rise and recover after yesterday's setback. Analysts are very positive on the (VIP ONLY), which is now making a strong push into (VIP ONLY). (VIP ONLY) is the latest very positive analyst (for (VIP ONLY)) increasing price target to $ (VIP ONLY) and expecting an "outperformance" of (VIP ONLY). We see (VIP ONLY)% higher pre-market and want to enter in the range (VIP ONLY)* (!). We expect (VIP ONLY) to quickly rise back above (VIP ONLY) and remain bullish. It is a good sentiment market for (VIP ONLY).
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
⏱ Update DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
CLOSE NOW/SOON ✅ @: 2340 - 2343
OR
SL 🔑 @: 2333.43
TP ✅ @: 2341.43
We see now slightly rising yields 30 minutes before NYSE opening which puts slight fundamental headwinds on gold. We can close here flat or slightly positively and do so. We can likely find a better entry during increased volatility during NYSE opening. You can also work with a tight TP.
👁 ROB'S MARKTÜBERBLICK:
24. Mai 2024
🌐/🇺🇸 Globale Märkte ↗️/↕️/➡️ (reduzieren die gestrigen scharfen Verluste, aber gedämpfte Bewegungen vor dem langen Wochenende)
Zyklische / Luxus-Aktien ↗️/↕️/➡️
Technologie-/Wachstumsaktien ↗️/↕️ (Technologie erholt sich von den gestrigen scharfen Verlusten; Nvidia wird Unterstützung bieten)
Finanzaktien ↗️/➡️ (reduzieren Verluste; Banken profitieren tatsächlich von längeren hohen Zinsen)
Defensive Aktien ↗️/➡️
Energieaktien ➡️/↗️ (überverkauft)
Rohstoff-Aktien ➡️
💱 Forex
EUR ↗️/➡️ (nach einigen besser als erwarteten Wirtschaftsdaten und jüngsten Verlusten)
AUD ↗️/➡️ (erholt sich von den gestrigen Verlusten)
GBP, CAD ➡️
USD ➡️ (stabilisiert sich, aber niedrigere Zinssenkungserwartungen halten den USD weiterhin unterstützt)
CHF, JPY ↘️➡️ (bleiben geschwächt durch Erwartungen, dass EZB, BoE, Fed, RBA, RNBZ die Zinsen länger hoch halten könnten)
⚒ Rohstoffmärkte ↕️
Ölpreise ↘️/↕️/↗️ (begrenztes Abwärtspotential nach jüngstem Rückgang)
Erdgaspreise ↗️/↕️
Metallpreise ↗️/➡️
Gold ↕️/↗️ (nach jüngsten scharfen Verlusten aufgrund reduzierter Zinssenkungserwartungen; Gold mit Unterstützung im Bereich von 2.330 - 2.340 $ - bleibt mittel-/langfristig attraktiv)
⚡️Kryptowährungen ↕️ (Ethereum ETF genehmigt, war aber bereits vollständig eingepreist. Anfangs Enttäuschung, dass die Rallye nicht fortgesetzt wird, dann sind weitere Gewinne wahrscheinlich, da die Nachfrage nach Ethereum-ETF voraussichtlich stark sein wird)
(*↗️ bullisch, ↘️ bärisch, ➡️ seitwärts / stabil, ↕️ gemischt / volatil)
Dein Robert
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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
► Following the exceptionally strong US purchasing managers' indices, gold came under pressure as the market (further) reduced its interest rate cut expectations. The reaction to the US purchasing managers' index (54.4 vs. 51.1 expected) also drove up the USD and yields. Business activity was particularly strong in the services sector. We now see gold short-term range $2.337 - $2.340 and in an uptrend.
► We see that both the USD and yields have stabilized in European trading / pre-market US trading. We also see that equities in Europe are trying to recover after being hit hard by heavy profit taking in the US.
► Cautious sentiment and rising geopolitical tensions due to strained trade relations between the US and China and Chinese military exercises near Taiwan are having a positive impact on gold. Gold is usually in higher demand on Fridays, especially when general market sentiment and geopolitical tensions are tense.
► The stronger-than-expected purchasing managers' indices now appear to be priced into interest rate cut expectations. In view of the low expectations, durable goods orders at 14:30 CET could also come as a positive surprise. Until then, we expect gold to rebound for the time being.
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 45+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———
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