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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2339.43 (or wider)
TP โ
@: 2336.18 (or wider)
We are also want to bring our gold position now home in profit and thus tighten the TP. Alternatively you can also work with a wider SL & TP as we continue see headwinds on gold. We are now in US after-hours trading with most brokers increasing spreads slightly. It's good to bring our gold trade home soon. We can likely find a better re-entry (range $2,341 - $2,344) during overnight trading.
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2340.36
TP โ
@: 2335.13
We see a gold in a bearish momentum, technically bearish and with fundamental headwinds.
We also see relatively little movements in gold given that we see strong movements in bonds / yields. We tighten our TP and put it in the $2,335 - $2,336 range, where gold may find short-term technical support.
We set our SL in profit.
โโ-
We now won 8 gold trades in a row (or 9 from the last 10).
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข๐ก 29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (open - SL in profit)
๐ต๐๐ฅ๐
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๐ SmartTrader Premium Insights: Analyst Rating Updates
๐ Wednesday, May 29
๐ข Positive Ratings:
Apple (AAPL) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as "BUY"
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Argus upgrades to "BUY"
Previously: "HOLD"
Price Target: $450
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Truist reiterates as "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
Dell (DELL) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as "BUY"
Price Target: $130 โคด๏ธ $180
Disney (DIS) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
First Solar (FSLR) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: UBS reiterates as "BUY"
Price Target: $270 โคด๏ธ $350
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: TD Cowen initiates as "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
Netflix (NFLX) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
Nvidia (NVDA) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Bernstein reiterates as "OUTPERFORM"
Snowflake (SNOW) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Wells Fargo reiterates as "OVERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $225
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Jefferies upgrades to "BUY"
Previously: "HOLD"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
๐ก Neutral Ratings:
First Solar (FSLR) ๐บ๐ธ๐ขโคต๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: DZ Bank downgrades to "HOLD"
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $270
๐ด Negative Ratings:
N/A
Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.
๐ข = positive rating
๐ก = neutral rating
๐ด = negative rating
โคด๏ธ = upgrade
โคต๏ธ = downgrade
You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE ๐
๐ฌ As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!
SmartTraderโข Analyst team
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Amazon (AMZN) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 181.23
TP โ
@: 183.77
OR
CLOSE NOW โ
@: 183.50 (area)
Apple (APPL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 189.87
TP โ
@: 192.49
We further tighten SL & TP for Amazon - you can also close Amazon here (near $183.50).
Also our Apple position is back in profit. We keep our tight TP and pull our SL tighter.
Both Amazon and Apple are the outperformers in big tech / Nasdaq 100 (only Netflix is also trading similarly positively)
โโ-
๐๐1๏ธโฃ9๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Amazon (AMZN) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 181.23
TP โ
@: 183.87
Our Nvidia position hit already TP - what an insane trade against the market. We now see early signs of Nvidia even finding support at 1110.
Meanwhile Amazon and Apple are the only mega cap tech stocks trading in the green. We adjust our SL for Amazon which is now trading near $183. Amazon opened surprisingly good after trading about 0.5% - 0.8% lower in the hour before NYSE opening. Apple is back near $192.00 and near our TP.
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
SELL AFTER NYSE OPENED๐ฝ NVIDIA (NVDA) ๐บ๐ธ
โ ๏ธ Volatile; 2/3 trade size
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
๐น Dow Jones (- 0.7%) is trading lower in US pre-market trading. We will likely see a negative US session. After the recent underperformance the Dow Jones should perform better than the S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 today. We set a out-of-profit TP โ
@: 38744.30
๐น Amazon (- 0.7%) loses yesterday's gains. We set a tight SL as higher yields put pressure on growth stocks - ๐ @: 179.89.
๐น Apple (+ 0.1%) outperforms other tech stocks. It's a good market for Apple which is seen as the defensive play in the tech sector. We may see slight additional losses but stay LONG in Apple. We can set a not too wide TP โ
@: 192.43. Bank of America reiterates Apple as "BUY".
๐น Chevron (+ 0.2%) outperforms the Dow Jones. Oil prices remain elevated but we may see some headwinds if yields continue to rise. We close in the next mini spike TP โ
@: 159.29 with a slight profit. Chevron opens near 159.00 - 159.30.
๐น Citigroup (- 0.6%) extends losses and remains in oversold territory. The big Wall Street banks have benefited from the current high rates. We stay LONG in Citigroup.
โบ We see strong headwinds on growth stocks today which leads losses and the Nasdaq nearly 1% lower in pre-market trading. We see Nvidia opening near yesterday's closing price. Nvidia will remain very volatile but today's market sentiment could (finally) result in some profit taking after the recent very strong gains. It's very tricky to bet against Nvidia here, but we also see other chip stocks deep red in US pre-market trading (such as AMD -2.2%, Qualcomm -1.9%, Intel -1.6%). We want to position us cautiously SHORT near $1,135 (range $1,132 - $1,139) and set and work with a TP $1,111.60.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 25 - 30 (2500% - 3000%) when trading the NVIDIA (NVDA) - 2/3 trade size
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โโโ
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๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
SELL NOW ๐ฝ AUD/USD
โบ There are increasing signs of a renewed acceleration in inflation - not only in the US, but also the latest data from the UK and today from Australia show that the phase of disinflation is over for the time being, as higher wages are now having an impact and global companies are continuing to raise prices in order to achieve their growth targets and maintain their operating margins.
โบ The AUD/USD is flat for the time being, but still has room to fall after a recent positive trend. The AUD is benefiting from robust commodity prices, but also from the fact that the monthly Australian CPI indicator (April) has risen from 3.5% to 3.6%, which is not only above expectations but also indicates a trend reversal (the expectation for the April CPI was 3.4%).
โบ We are seeing rising bond yields, not only in the US but also worldwide. German 10-year yields are now at their highest level for more than 6 months.
โบ Returning inflation concerns will generally support the USD and weigh on risk sentiment. The USD will remain in demand ahead of the important US inflation data (PCE) on Friday.
โบ While the AUD will be supported by the expectation that the RBA will have to keep interest rates high for longer, the stronger USD will generally weigh on risk sentiment and commodity prices. The AUD is a risk-sensitive currency.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 1.15 - 1.25 (115% - 125%) when trading AUD/USD.
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โโ-
Become part of the VIP community: WRITE US NOW ๐จ
๐ต๐
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โ
27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2345.79)
โ
27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2354.87) ๐
2/2 = 100% Success Rate
TODAY :
โด๏ธ 28.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
โ
28.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 1.08586)
โ
28.5 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 18896.70|clsd ~18900)
โด๏ธ 28.5 - APPL - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2355.37)
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 2356.52)
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (open - near break-even)
๐ TP โ
@: 2354.12 ๐
โด๏ธ 28.5 - CVX - LONG โ๏ธ (open - just entered)
โด๏ธ 28.5 - C - LONG โ๏ธ (open - just entered)
5/9 - (4 open positions)
We traded today's tricky / mixed day with surprisingly little trading volume well. Our Dow Jones position was too early - we should have waited more for pre-opening action. You can close in the next spike / with a TP (still off-profit) near 38990. We are slightly tightening the TP for our last gold position which will likely trigger during Asian trading / overnight.
๐ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW๐ผ Chevron (CVX) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ We are positioning ourselves in value / fair valued stocks, which continue to underperform, as the focus is on a few growth stocks - especially chip stocks, which were able to expand their profits again.
โบ Our XOM position closed well in profit today - we should have re-entered at $114.10. We now see ExxonMobil at $115.00 (with plenty of short-term upside potential). However, we enter CVX here near $159.00 (below session highs). We see energy prices much higher today. Even though oil prices look a bit hot in the short term now and ahead of the important OPEC+ meeting, we see recovery potential in the oil and gas sector.
โบ We are also positioning ourselves LONG in financial stocks. The major Wall Street banks have very solid balance sheets and strong earnings growth, benefiting from a growing US economy and higher interest rates. (VIP ONLY) ongoing efforts to streamline its business and focus on t(VIP ONLY)s will help (VIP ONLY) improve its overall financial performance. Within the next 12 - 18 months, (VIP ONLY) plans to (VIP ONLY).
โบ We buy (VIP ONLY) sharp decline (and (VIP ONLY)) to below $(VIP ONLY) and see recovery potential.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~340 - 370 (34.000% - 37.000%) when trading with (CVX)
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
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โโ
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๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2356.52
TP โ
@: 2350.16
We pull our SL already in-profit. Yields remain elevated but stabilized at near +7 bps (for he (US 10-y).
We put our TP at ~$2,350.
Wit gold now being more fundamentally driven again - our timing remains exceptional.
โโ-
We have won more than 81.7% of all our trades this year. We have won more than 89% of our gold trades in the same period. This means that our gold trades continue to "print money" ๐ต๐ต๐ต
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) ๐บ๐ธ
CLOSE NOW โ
@: 18900 (area)
We secure ~50 points of profit with our Nasdaq 100 (or a bit more if you found a slightly better entry). We see yields rising - no insignificantly at ~+6 basis points. We also see a stronger USD. Both provide some headwinds on growth stocks. We close near / at 18900 - we can find a better re-entry.
โโ-
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
ExxonMobil (XOM) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 114.23
TP โ
@: 114.97
XOM rose further (should rise even more) with oil up 1.5% (natural gas at +1% / fuel +0.7% / heating oil +1.7%).
We give the oil & gas giant more room to rise (to ~$150) and tighten our SL.
โโ-
This was part of this VIP ONLY SIGNAL:
This is a strong trade with excellent timing - don't miss it! โ
We found indeed excellent timing into XOM range $113.00 - $113.50.
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
ExxonMobil (XOM) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 113.87
TP โ
@: 114.79
EUR/USD
SL ๐ @: 1.08807
TP โ
@: 1.08586
We found almost on the minute the perfect entry into the EUR/USD - exactly at the turning point. We now set a tight SL but would get back in SHORT again near 1.08900 in case our SL is triggered. We expect the EUR/USD pair to face more headwinds towards Friday's PCE data.
Also our ExxonMobil trade is well in profit. However, given the sharp rebound in oil prices - the gains are disappointing / Exxon continues to underperform. If our tight SL is triggered, we want to get back into XOM range $103.00 - $103.50. Exxon remains cheap and is also a great long-term play at the current price.
โโ-
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๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Apple (APPL) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ There was indeed some profit taking at the NYSE opening and the (VIP ONLY) is now back in flat / slightly negative territory. We see the (VIP ONLY) dipping to ~(VIP ONLY) but expect tech/growth stocks to do well today. We see very strong gains in the chip sector, especially Nvidia. Heavy losses from Tesla (VIP ONLY) ...
โบ We also see Apple ony 1% higher - after rising as much as 2.5% in pre-market trading. We find good entry into Apple (currently range $190.50 - $191.00) and expect Apple to perform well today after a strong rebound in iPhone sales in China. The slowing iPhone sales weighed heavily on Apple in 2024 and led to Apple's underperformance (relative to the other Magnificent 7 stocks / minus Tesla). Apple faced headwinds from a not very positive analyst call from UBS.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 320 - 340 (32.000% - 34.000%) when trading Apple (APPL).
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โโ-
๐๐1๏ธโฃ9๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃโ
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๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ Traders remain cautious after long weekend; Wall Street extends Friday-Recovery
We see Wall Street futures higher, with the Nasdaq continuing to outperform the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, thanks to a rebound in Apple after iPhone shipments rebounded in China. Investors remain cautious after returning from the extended weekend as markets in the US and UK were closed yesterday.
The S&P 500 is up 0.25% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3% after Apple shares rose as much as 2.4% in pre-market trading (currently up 1.6%). The Dow Jones is little changed, similar to the markets in Europe. Asian stocks had a strong start to the week (yesterday), but also closed today's trading day mixed. Trading volumes remain thin as investors are still looking for further hints of rate cuts from the Fed, as well as other central banks. The "meme" stock GameStop is up nearly 25% after the (in reality "obsolete") video game retailer announced that it had raised nearly $1 billion through a stock sale program,
The latest US economic data points to a renewed acceleration in the US economy - and with it a renewed acceleration in inflation. Concerns remain, but the overall robust growth outlook and another strong earnings season are keeping investors invested in equities. The main focus this week will be on inflation data - particularly the US PCE data on Friday.
There is also little movement in the bond market - a sign that investors are not fleeing to safety, but also that rate cut expectations are already at a low level, limiting headwinds from further reduced rate cut expectations. Swap markets are split on one or two Fed rate cuts this year - in my opinion, it is more likely that no rate cut or at most one rate cut in the fourth quarter. Stubborn inflation data on Friday (possibly) therefore still has some potential to weigh on equities and market sentiment.
In addition, we see a solid development in commodity prices, which are also picking up again thanks to a (temporary) weakening of the USD.
Meanwhile, the "T+1" rule comes into force in the US today, whereby shares are settled on one day instead of two. There are some concerns about potential teething problems, such as international investors having difficulty getting the USD in on time as global funds now move at different speeds and everyone has less time to work out bugs. As banks have prepared for today, I don't expect any surprises.
There is room for recovery - still in the stock market, but also in gold and oil prices after the recent slump. As the economic calendar is empty today, assets will hit key support and resistance lines. We expect a cautiously positive market today.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
May 28, 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (benefiting from rebound in iPhone sales / positive chip stocks / stable yields, weaker USD)
Financial Stocks โก๏ธ
Defensive Stocks โก๏ธ
Energy Stocks โ๏ธ (bounce from oversold territory)
Materials Stocks โ๏ธ
๐ฑ Forex
AUD, CAD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (slight additional early gains, with USD stabilizing, further AUD gains limited)
GBP, CHF โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
EUR โก๏ธ
JPY โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ (mostly flat for today, but remains bearish)
USD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ (further losses limited)
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Oil prices โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Natural Gas prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Metal prices โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Gold โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (trying to move towards and above $2,360 - remains in recovery mode)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ (btc moving in the range $67K - $70K for now after ETF hype eased / general outlook rather bullish)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
โ ๏ธ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 38446.70
TP โ
@: 38686.90 (off-profit)
Apple (APPL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 189.43
TP โ
@: 192.49
Citigroup (C) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 61.17
TP โ
@: 62.79
AUD/USD
SL ๐ @: 0.66237
TP โ
@: 0.66116
We are updating some of our positions (some only slightly) ahead of the NYSE close. Salesforce's earnings report will have an impact on the Dow Jones in after-hours trading. The Dow faced headwinds from heavy losses in healthcare giant and major Dow Jones component UnitedHealth. CEO Andrew Witty said at a conference that it could take "several quarters" before US states start paying premiums that adequately cover the costs of Medicaid patients - this weighed on the healthcare (insurance) sector today and caused the Dow Jones to underperform again.
Our AUD/USD is close to the TP. We are giving Apple a little more leeway (SL extension). Citigroup recovered from today's lows.
โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
SELL NOW ๐ฝ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
โบ We missed some good SHORT opportunities today as I was stuck in some meetings - but we are now seeing a good SHORT opportunity for gold again and taking advantage of the slight spike.
โบ Gold has now jumped back above $2,342 despite yields continuing to rise (and significantly) and the USD trading close to its highs for the day against its peers. We position us now SHORT range $2,342 - $2,345 and continue to see gold facing fundamental headwinds.
โบ After yesterday's jump in yields (+9 basis points for the 10-year bond), we see yields rising at the same pace (currently +7 - 8 basis points for the 10- and 7-year bond). Yields on 2-year US government bonds are back near 5% (currently 4.98%). Inflation fears following unexpectedly hot reports (also outside the US) are weighing on the non-yielding precious metal.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
AUD/USD
SL ๐ @: 0.66267
TP โ
@: 0.66116
We secure big profits with our AUD/USD. We set a tight SL & TP and bring our profits home.
โโ-
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NVIDIA (NVDA) ๐บ๐ธ
TP triggered โ
@: 1110.60
Probably the best short-term SHORT against the market I have seen this year. Our TP was perfectly set. Congratulations.
Nearly 2% movement (depending on your entry) in a few minutes.
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
NVIDIA (NVDA) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 1126.70
TP โ
@: 1110.60
We already pull our SL to slightly in profit.
We se our TP at 1110. We indeed see the profit taking wave we expected (for now).
๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ Increasing inflation concerns weigh on equities, bonds & risk appetite
Inflation is rising again. Is that so? Stubborn inflation data, be it from the UK last week or today from Australia, where CPI data rose in April instead of cooling as expected, or from Germany (just reported) where inflation is now back to 2.4% YoY (from 2.2% in April; preliminary data).
The growing concern that the inflation problem will last longer and that central banks will keep interest rates high for longer is weighing on market sentiment. Equities and bonds are retreating. Disappointing demand after yesterday's auction of US treasuries and generally hawkish comments from Fed officials continue to push yields higher. There is another US Treasury auction today (for 7-year US-Treasuries).
Wall Street futures are pointing to a decline of 0.5% to 0.6% at the open, and the European Stoxx 600 is also down -0.5%. After yesterday's sharp rise in yields, which pushed German bond yields to a six-month high, there is little sign that interest rate fears will subside ahead of this week's US PCE data - the Fed's key and preferred inflation reading. Also the Asian session was mostly negative today.
On a positive note, UK inflation is still cooling (previous week's data) and German inflation, although hotter, was pretty much in line with expectations. Markets continue to expect the ECB to cut interest rates for the first time in June.
The risk of higher yields putting pressure on the expensive equity market seems to remain for the time being. However, inflation is also rising due to a global economy that is largely resilient or even growing (US economy). The continued strong performance of US mega-caps, very solid corporate earnings and AI enthusiasm are keeping markets up - although we expect pressure to continue as yields are likely to remain elevated due to rising inflation concerns.
The Nasdaq Composite hit a new ATH yesterday, supported by the mega-caps, particularly Nvidia. However, the importance of mega-cap stocks, such as the Magnificent Seven, has now reached a record high following Nvidia's very strong earnings after its earnings report.
We also see continued demand for energy as WTI has risen back above $80/barrel. Other commodities that are important to industry also remain at high price levels - which does not suggest disinflation, but is a sign that the market as a whole remains optimistic. Gold made a U-turn just as many traders were expecting a strong recovery in the yellow precious metal after last week's heavy losses. We immediately understood the rise in fundamental headwinds and positioned us SHORT near yesterday's highs. With yields rising again, gold remains under pressure from a fundamental perspective. I also expect the USD to edge higher ahead of the PCE data, with yields, however, not only rising in the US but globally.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
May 29, 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ๏ธ (giving back some of the recent strong gains)
Financial Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Defensive Stocks โก๏ธ
Energy Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Materials Stocks โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
๐ฑ Forex
USD โ๏ธ (remains in rebound mode with risk sentiment worsening)
EUR, CHF โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
AUD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ (initial gains after hot AU inflation lost, headwinds on worsening risk management & stronger USD)
JPY โก๏ธ (supported by safe haven demand, remains slightly bearish)
CAD โก๏ธ (support from higher energy prices, headwinds from stronger USD)
GBP โก๏ธ/โ๏ธ
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Oil prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (likely finding resistance today - potentially some profit taking)
Natural Gas prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Metal prices โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Gold โ๏ธ (headwinds from rising yields / stronger USD)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (headwinds from rising yields / stronger USD - BTC potentially re-testing $67K)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
โ ๏ธ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL
๐ SmartTrader Insights: Wednesday Markets Wrap ๐
๐ Wednesday, May 29
โ๏ธ European markets dip ahead of German inflation data; US futures, Asian stocks mostly lower on inflation concerns
โบ European markets opened lower with the Stoxx 600 slipping 0.35%. German 10-year yields neared their highest levels since November ahead of the release of national inflation data, which is expected to increase to 2.5% from 2.2%. Traders are closely monitoring this data amidst the backdrop of resilient US consumer confidence and hawkish Federal Reserve remarks, which have heightened expectations for prolonged high interest rates. Additionally, Germany's consumer confidence showed improvement but remains pessimistic, rising to -20.90 in June from -24 in May, exceeding market expectations.
โบ US equity futures indicate a decline, mirroring the cautious sentiment seen in Europe. The market's unease follows weak demand in US Treasury sales and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, suggesting interest rates may remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yields increased to 4.57% after a nine basis point jump on Tuesday. Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Fedโs preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index on Friday May 31, anticipated to show a 2.7% annual increase for April.
โบ Asian markets opened mostly lower, with the Japanese equities benchmark dropping over 1%. Australia's inflation rate rose to 3.6% YoY in April, defying expectations of a slowdown. This unexpected acceleration has reinforced bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain higher interest rates longer. Meanwhile, construction work in Australia saw a significant quarterly decline, marking the sharpest drop since 2019.
โบ Oil prices continued their gains, with WTI crude oil climbing above $80.3/barrel due to increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. The gold price fell to $2,345/oz. Our chief analyst Robert Lindner continues to see headwinds, both from a sentiment and fundamental perspective. Investors are increasingly cautious in light of key US economic data, higher yields, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and general fears that the renewed acceleration in inflation will keep interest rates high for longer.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
๐ธ ๐ฆ๐บ Monthly CPI Indicator - 01:30 (released)
๐ธ ๐ฉ๐ช GfK Consumer Confidence - 06:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ซ๐ท Consumer Confidence - 06:45 (released)
๐ธ ๐ช๐ธ Retail Sales - 07:00 (released)
โฆ๏ธ ๐ฉ๐ช Inflation Rate / CPI - 12:00
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
๐ธ = Event of medium/high importance
โฆ๏ธ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
๐ Salesforce (CRM) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Relx (RELX) ๐ฌ๐ง
โ๏ธ Diageo (DEO) ๐ฌ๐ง
โ๏ธ Bank of Montreal (BMO) ๐จ๐ฆ
โ๏ธ BAE Systems (BAESY) ๐ฌ๐ง
๐ HP (HPQ) ๐บ๐ธ
(...a few more with market cap <$15B)
SmartTraderโข Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
โ
Performance: 16.04 - 21.05 (26 trading days)
131 / 152 = 86.2% (!) Success Rate
(April 15 - 3/8 = 37.5% SR dropped out)
โ 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL -2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390)
โ
22.5 - USOIL - SHORT โ๏ธ (CLSD ~77.251)
โ(โ
*) 22.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ(SL 2369.87|or CLSD ~2,390*)
โ
22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 18686.10)
โ
22.5 - GS - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 462.79 |or TP - 462.73)
โ
22.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 39738.7)
4/6 = 66.7% Success Rate (or 83.3% if * in profit)
โ
23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2362.27)
โ 23.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 39348.3)
โ 23.5 - AUD/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 0.66147 )
โ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (CLSD ~2349.67 | 2349 - 2354)
โด๏ธ 23.5 - AMZN - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 179.37 ๐ | TP โ
@: 183.97
โ
23.5 - JPM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 199.17)
โ
23.5 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 18822.3)
โ
23.5 - USOIL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 77.497)
โ
23.5 - NAS100 - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 18602.6)
โ 23.5 - GBP/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 1.27622)
โ
23.5 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL -114.29| or TP - 114.97)
6/11 - (1 open position)
โ
24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2341.43)
โ
24.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 39183.4)
โ
24.5 - APPL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 189.98)
โ
24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ(TP - 2346.70|or clsd* ~2335)
โ
24.5 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 114.23)
โ
24.5 - SPX500- LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 5313.40) ๐ธ
6/6 = 100% Success Rate ๐
From 16.04. to 21.05. we won 86.2% (!) of our trades, which is the highest percentage we have achieved in a 5-week period for quite some time. An absolutely incredible performance - congratulations again to all of us ๐. Our trading performance over the last few months has been amazing - probably unmatched in short term trading worldwide, where professional traders aim for an SR of 64% - 73%.
We finished the 24th of May at 100% SR as well as XOM and our S&P 500 closed in profit (some of you closed the S&P 500 better at 5322.40). Widening our Amazon SL paid off (for now) with Amazon closing at 182.18 (+0.77%).
โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
SELL NOW ๐ฝ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
โบ Gold saw dip buying slightly below $2,353 but reached a lower low than in the previous dip. We saw technical buying a short-term rebound supported by some safe haven demand as we also see US stocks nearing sessions lows. Our (in-profit) SL was triggered.
โบ Fundamental headwinds continue to persist - we SHORT again similar range $2,358 - $2,360.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโ-
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โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
SELL NOW ๐ฝ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
TP โ
@: (VIP ONLY)
โบ We are trading gold SHORT here in the short term with rising yields - now +7 basis points (US 10-y). We also see that the USD is now flat after initially extending its three-day slide.
โบ Inflation fears will continue to support the USD. Higher yields are a fundamental headwind for the yield less precious metal as it increases the opportunity cost of holding gold.
โบ We find an entry range of $2.357.50 - $2.359.50 and expect gold to trend back towards $2.350 in the short term.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโ-
We have found the almost perfect entry price here - make sure you receive the trading signals without delay.
๐ฅ2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ9๏ธโฃ๐ฝ
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๐ SmartTrader Premium Insights: Analyst Rating Updates
๐ Tuesday, May 28
๐ข Positive Ratings:
Airbnb (ABNB) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Wedbush upgrades to โOUTPERFORMโ
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $160 โคด๏ธ $165
Amazon (AMZN) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as โOVERWEIGHTโ
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Deutsche Bank initiates as โBUYโ
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as โTOP PICKโ
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Truist upgrades to โBUYโ
Previously: "HOLD"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
Dell (DELL) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Loop reiterates as โBUYโ
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Citigroup upgrades to โBUYโ
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: JPMorgan upgrades to โOVERWEIGHTโ
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
Meta (META) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as โOVERWEIGHTโ
Microsoft (MSFT) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as โOVERWEIGHTโ
Netflix (NFLX) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Evercore ISI reiterates as โOUTPERFORMโ
Price Target: $650 โคด๏ธ $700
Nvidia (NVDA) ๐บ๐ธ๐ข
Analyst: Melius reiterates as โBUYโ
(VIP ONLY) ๐จ๐ญ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Truist upgrades to โBUYโ
Previously: "HOLD"
(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Mizuho upgrades to โBUYโ
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคด๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐กโคด๏ธ๐ข
Analyst: Guggenheim upgrades to โBUYโ
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
๐ก Neutral Ratings:
Apple (AAPL) ๐บ๐ธ๐ก
Analyst: UBS reiterates as "NEUTRAL"
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ขโคต๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: Northcoast downgrades to "NEUTRAL"
Previously: "BUY"
Southwest Airlines (LUV) ๐บ๐ธ๐ขโคต๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: Argus downgrades to "HOLD"
Previously: "BUY"
(VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ๐ขโคต๏ธ๐ก
Analyst: Wells Fargo downgrades to โEQUAL WEIGHTโ
Previously: "OVERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) โคต๏ธ $(VIP ONLY)
๐ด Negative Ratings:
N/A
Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.
๐ข = positive rating
๐ก = neutral rating
๐ด = negative rating
โคด๏ธ = upgrade
โคต๏ธ = downgrade
You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE ๐
๐ฌ As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!
SmartTraderโข Analyst team
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2355.37
TP โ
@: 2364.39
We see gold back at / above $2,360. We set a relatively tight TP - as we continue to see profit taking at key points - $2,365 / or a new weekly high could act as such.
You can work with a tight (profitable) SL or a wider one. We are not closing out of profit though.
Congratulations - we have excellent timing with gold.
โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โบ Gold broke through the $2,360 mark and hit resistance at $2,365 before profit-taking set in.
โบ Yields are still lower on a daily basis (=compared to Friday). The USD recovered a little after the weakness in Asian/European trading, but should not play a major role in gold today.
โบ We are getting back into gold below our triggered TP (currently near/below $2,350). As equities are also trending mixed, gold remains attractive after last week's sharp decline.
โบ Although gold continues to face headwinds from expectations of lower interest rate cuts, most of this is already priced in. Gold remains attractive in the medium-/long term, as central banks are also continuing to increase their gold holdings.
โบ The current and persistently cautious sentiment is supportive of gold.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
โก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
โโ-
๐ฅ
๐2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ
๐2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ6๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฐ NYSE OPENING UPDATE ๐ฏ
๐น Dow Jones (- 0.1%) remains little change and underperformance with defensive / health stocks seeing some headwinds from a rotation into growth. Dow Jones has plenty of rebound potential.
๐น Amazon (- 0.3%) is opening slightly lower. We can update our SL slightly ๐ @: 179.37. Amazon should also see some support from Morgan Stanley reiterating Amazon as "overweight".
๐น ExxonMobil (+ 0.3%) benefits from the solid rebound in oil / fuel prices. We can set a TP โ
@: 114.87.
โบ We want to see what risk sentiment is doing after NYSE opening and the extended weekend. We may first see slight profit taking which gives us better entries. We see big tech in solid position for further gains.
โฑ Update DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธโ ๏ธโ ๏ธ
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โโ-
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Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
TP triggered โ
@: 2354.87
TP already triggered for me. You can close now a bit better - but I would (still) close here (for now) range $2,355 - $2,359.
We can find a better (re-)entry.
We are happy with this minor profit here (depending on your initial entry) as our entry yesterday was not great.