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โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
We see that gold is in a very strong sell-off driven by sentiment, which has probably led to some of your gold positions already ending up in the SL. I assumed that gold would find support around $2,340 at the latest, now we see the gold price around $2,330.
Please do NOT overtrade gold here (too many re-entries).
If you have closed your position or have the necessary margin, I see a good re-entry here at slightly below $2,330 because we also see a strong technical support level now.
STAY LONG ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โบ ...or get back in here ($2,326 - $2,328.50 range) if your gold position is already closed (out of profit)
โบ Gold's recent lows were in the $2,323 - $2,330 range after last week's heavy selling and has technically strong support in this range. Fundamentally, gold is now in a better position than in recent days.
โบ Towards the end of today, gold should also benefit from the generally cautious sentiment and the usual Friday buying.
โบ Gold may also have been sold off somewhat due to portfolio rebalancing / shifts at the end of the month - the recent underperformance of gold may have led to a reduction in gold holdings in some large portfolios - which, however, is a mistake.
โบ There is still a long way to go now to a gold price of $2,350 - $2,360, but it is not a good price to close here at the potentially near end of the current panic sell-off.
โฑ Update DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ2๏ธโฃ8๏ธโฃ๐ฏ๐
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โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
STAY LONG / BUY NOW* ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โบ Gold saw some profit taking after nearly hitting $2,360. We continue to see these selling wave at key technical levels.
โบ Gold remains fundamentally supported. We see yields sliding (and falling further). We see a technical pullback / sentiment driven profit taking.
โบ A very poor Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) for the US economy caused also some headwinds in stocks and the USD to stabilize. Concerns about a weakening US economy also weigh a bit on cyclicals although they are seen as mandatory for the Fed to cut rates.
โบ Gold remains bullish here. You can improve your entry range near $2,340*. We remain LONG.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
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๐ฅ
2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ6๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ๐2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ4๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ๐ฏ๐
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW / DURING NYSE OPENING ๐ผ AUD/USD
๐ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY WHEN* NYSE OPENS ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
Wall Street is starting to recover and bond yields fell after a cooling of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge increased the scope for rate cuts this year. We have traded (actually overtraded) the panic selling heavily over the last two days and are now benefiting strongly from the recovery.
๐น Nasdaq (+0.2%) / Dow Jones (+0.2%) are recovering. The Nasdaq 100 almost reached our SL before starting a strong recovery rally. We expect further gains as inflation fears and the expectation that interest rates will remain high for longer were the main reasons for the recent sell-off.
๐น Block (+ 1.1%) opens significantly higher near our TP. Block is also benefiting from another positive analyst assessment for competitor PayPal and lower yields, which are providing growth. We maintain our (now tight) TP โ
(65.87; or opt. adjustment to 65.94), which could trigger.
๐น Chevron (+0.2%) extends its gains and opens at $158.50. We maintain our SL and tight TP.
๐น Citigroup (+0.6%) opens higher (at 62.30). We can extend our TP โ
@ slightly: 62.67.
๐น Microsoft (+0.6%) tries to recover. We remain LONG and see good conditions for large tech/software/growth stocks to recover in the first half of US trading.
โบ The USD had already lost some of its gains ahead of the PCE data, but faced additional headwinds as rate cut expectations have now risen again. Risk sentiment has also improved, which will support the AUD, which is also benefiting from solid Asian trading. We enter the pair at 0.66600 and see further upside potential and look to take advantage of a small dip around the NYSE opening / early trading.
โบ We buy (VIP ONLY), which, like other major technology stocks, suffered some losses yesterday. (VIP ONLY) is also underperforming in today's pre-market trading (currently -0.55%). We buy (VIP ONLY) in the (VIP ONLY)* range and position ourselves for a rebound.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 1.15 - 1.25 (115% - 125%) when trading AUD/USD.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
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๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
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๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 18547.70
TP โ
@: 18723.40
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2348.70
TP โ
@: 2354.47
Congratulations - we identified the overselling / panic selling yesterday and remained calm. Gold is the asset you want to be in now (LONG). We tighten our SL (in profit). As always, when the market is in panic, we need to remain as calm as possible.
The Nasdaq 100 has now plenty of rebound potential. We thus widen our TP and tighten our SL here.
Perfect.
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2336.89
TP โ
@: 2354.47
OR
CLOSE NOW (before 12:30 UTC+0) โ
@: 2345 - 2346 (range)
We would have been happier if our gold position would have closed in our TP overnight - which almost happened (twice). But given now that we are ahead of PCE data we can either close (with a tiny loss) or adjust our positions with a tighter SL (a hot PCE reading would push gold significantly down) and widen our TP. An in-line with expectations report (or cooler-than-expected) will push gold above $2,350.
We keep SL / TP for our Nasdaq - which is in a similar situation.
๐ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ EUR/(VIP ONLY)
โบ We see little movement in all markets as investors are mainly waiting for the US PCE data. We see the (VIP ONLY) and AUD outperforming today as investors reduce their cautious position somewhat on concerns of hot US PCE data. Yesterday's US GDP Q1 (annualized) has eased fears that the US economy is running too hot and that inflation could accelerate significantly again. According to yesterday's data, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% from January to March, below the advance estimate of 1.6% after consumer spending was revised downwards. Markets yesterday raised rate cut expectations (for the Fed) to a 55% chance that rate cuts will begin in September, up from 51% on Wednesday.
โบAnalysts expect (VIP ONLY) to come in at (VIP ONLY), a better result than (VIP ONLY). In my opinion, there is a possibility that expectations will be undercut, which would increase the expectation of a rate cut (VIP ONLY). Inflation data from (VIP ONLY) disinflation is continuing in (VIP ONLY)...
โบ At 2.6%, inflation data from the Eurozone was above expectations (2.5%) and above the previous year's 2.4% in April. This will support the euro, even though the ECB is expected to start easing its monetary policy next month. The ECB is likely to make a "hawkish rate cut", saying that it will continue to monitor inflation and that further rate cuts will be slow.
โบ We are buying the EUR/(VIP ONLY) range (VIP ONLY) and expect the EUR to gain a little further today - but also next week. In addition, there are some headwinds in (VIP ONLY) ...
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29.5 - AUD/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 0.66116) ๐ธ
โ
29.5 - NVDA - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 1110.6)
โ
29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 2336.18) ๐ ๐ธ
3/3 = 100% Success Rate ๐
TODAY :
โ
30.5 - SPX500 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 5260.90) ๐ธ
โ
30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2349.37) ๐ธ
โด๏ธ 30.5 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 18448.70 | TP โ
@: 18699.70
โด๏ธ 30.5 - SQ - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 64.23 | TP โ
@: 65.87
โด๏ธ 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 2334.87 | TP โ
@: 2348.33
โด๏ธ 30.5 - MSFT - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
2/6 - (4 open positions)
We started today's trading day very well, but then overtraded the US data package and the sharp fall in yields. Although we were fundamentally acting correctly, we saw that the market was increasingly driven by sentiment towards the end of today's trading - although we were expecting profit-taking and cautious action in the second half of trading anyway. We see slight gains in the Nasdaq (in after-hours trading) and the gold price is also back above $2343. Gold needs to rise another 0.2% to reach our TP.
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 18448.70
TP โ
@: 18699.70
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2334.87
TP โ
@: 2348.33
(corrected)
Our portfolio is not going well into after-hours trading. The profit taking / concerns about hot inflation readings caused sharp selling in particular in combination with Salesforce historic crash today - the worst session in 20 years for Salesforce (closing almost 20% lower). The sharp losses of Salesforce also caused headwinds for other software / cloud companies - many of them large cap. We also saw some price glitches today in New York - which may have also contributed to general cautious trading / profit taking.
Sharp profit taking also hit Nvidia. Overall, however, we saw dip buying with 9 out 11 sector closing in the green (!). It was in particular the sharp losses in the growth sector that caused also a significant slump in the Nasdaq.
Gold sees fundamental support but continue to see some profit taking near $2,350 and was also by the USD trimming losses (on safe haven demand). Yields closed the day near the bottom.
We set a SL here for our Nasdaq 100 position - which, however, is sharply oversold with losses centered in big tech. We also tighten our TP for gold and set a relatively tight SL.
โโ-
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ก 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
S&P 500 (SPX500) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 5260.70
TP โ
@: 5268.70
Apple (APPL) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 191.69
TP โ
@: 192.27
We want to reduce our exposure against profit taking in the final two hours of regular US trading and ahead of tomorrow's session in which markets are waiting for US PCE data.
We set a tight SL / TP for our S&P 500. We are still LONG in the Nasdaq 100 - which is benefitting more from the slide in yields today. We also bring our Apple position home in profit with a tight TP as we can find a better re-entry and see some profit taking above $192.00.
โโ-
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Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
TP triggered โ
@: 2349.37
... and hit. Perfect live trade.
We now see slight resistance at 2350.00 - our TP was very good. We can (VIP ONLY) ...
โก๏ธ LIVE TRADING ๐ฏ
(VIP ONLY) โ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
โบ We see (VIP ONLY) cooling. We (VIP ONLY) Gold below (VIP ONLY).
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 5+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โโ-
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ก 30.5 - XAU/USD - โ
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2343.87
TP โ
@: 2348.93
Once again we turned our gold positioning following the fundamentals with also gold now being strongly influenced by fundamentals (= yields in particular / rate cut expectations / inflation concerns).
We now quickly set an in-profit SL and put our TP
Congratulations - we currently have the perfect read on chaotic gold and now secure our 9th successful gold trade in a row.
โโ-
We are now trading gold short-term again probably better than any other short term trader - congratulations!
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข๐ก 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (open - SL in profit)
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
CLOSE โ yesterdays PENDING ORDER: Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
PENDING ORDER (2343.69)๐ฝ
๐ (if your Gold pending order triggered - you can close your position (~near $2,340) - slightly in profit)
โก๏ธ LIVE TRADING ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
โบ US GDP and initial jobless claims were in line with expectations and showed that GDP growth in the second quarter was significantly lower than in the first quarter. This is no surprise as the MoM data was already available.
โบ Initial jobless claims came in at 219K, higher than expected (218K) and higher than the previous week (216K). Unspectacular data, but at least no signs of tightening in the labor market. This is good for risk sentiment, as the tight labor market makes it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates and generally leads to increased wage growth.
โบ At 3.6%, QoQ consumer price data was significantly higher than in Q1 (2%), but below expectations of 3.7%. This slightly reduces concerns for tomorrow's PCE data.
โบ We are now buying gold (currently $2,338 - $2,340) as we see a cooling of yields. The data came thus in-line with our expectations and is positive for S&P 500 LONG.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
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โก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
โโโ
๐ฅ๐2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ4๏ธโฃ7๏ธโฃ
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ S&P 500 (SPX500) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ After two days of heavy losses, including heavy losses overnight after Salesforce's disappointing earnings report, we see signs of dip buying. We see global yields slightly reversing the strong gains of the last two days (+15 bps for 10-year US yields Tuesday + Wednesday, currently -3 bps).
โบ The market has been driven by higher yields and inflation fears and remains concerned about a rise in inflation when key data from the Eurozone and the US is released.
โบ Inflation worries are largely priced in - which doesn't mean we won't see strong volatility tomorrow after the PCE data is released, but the pessimism is priced in and stocks are on track for their worst performance since mid-April.
โบ We are seeing some losses in software stocks, with Salesforce leading the losses (~16%). There is recovery potential here.
โบ As more important data is released (US GDP growth / PCE prices QoQ), we expect some dip buying before the market becomes very cautious again. We find an entry in the S&P 500 at 5250 (or work with a pending order at 5246). Equities in Europe are also trying to limit their losses and the Euro Stoxx 600 is up 0.3%.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trading size by ~ 25 - 30 (2,500% - 3,000%) when trading the S&P500 (SPX500)
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
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โ 28.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 38446.70) ๐
โ
28.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 1.08586)
โ
28.5 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 18896.70|clsd ~18900)
โด๏ธ 28.5 - APPL - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 189.43 | TP โ
@: 192.49
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2355.37)
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 2356.52)
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 2354.12) ๐
โด๏ธ 28.5 - CVX - LONG โ๏ธ (open - just entered)
๐ TP โ
@: 159.29
โด๏ธ 28.5 - C - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 61.17 | TP โ
@: 62.79
5/9 - (3 open positions)
TODAY :
โ
29.5 - AUD/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 0.66116) ๐๐ธ
โ
29.5 - NVDA - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 1110.6)
(โ
)โด๏ธ 29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (open - SL in Profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 2339.43 | TP โ
@: 2336.18
3/3 = 100% Success Rate ๐ (1 open position)
We traded very well again today ๐. We made a beautiful AUD/USD against the market, but we expected further USD gains (I personally also SHORT the EUR/USD at 1.08525 - right after the German inflation data - but I didn't want us to over-position here). However, we should have closed our Dow Jones position earlier - yesterday together with the Nasdaq 100.
Phenomenal short term SHORT trade with Nvidia - one of the most impressive trades (especially our TP) I've seen in a long time (congrats!). Our gold position will also close in profit.
You can work with a pending order:
๐ฐ OPEN PENDING ORDER ๐ฏ
PENDING ORDER (2343.69)๐ฝ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
FYI:
Insider Trades from CEO Marc Benioff - https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1294693.htm
And other key employees (https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1108524.htm). Unbelievable that the investment banks / analysts didn't recognized this.
โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW* ๐ผ Meta Platforms (META) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ We see a market concerned about a slowdown in revenue growth hitting growth stocks in particular leading Wall Street lower for a second day. The Nasdaq is now 1% lower, with big tech stocks in particular extending their losses, despite fundamental support from a weaker US, increased rate cut expectations and lower yields.
โบ Much of the heavy losses are due to panic selling. The recent softer economic data, GDP growth, now less important PMI figures, but also in combination with the fact that inflation is stagnating, are raising concerns about falling corporate revenue. The PCE data in particular should actually be seen as very positive.
โบ We take the opportunity to buy Meta here near / slightly below $455.00*, as the social media giant has lost almost all of its May gains after a two-day slide. We assume that the sharp sell-off will come to an end very soon and that growth will at least partially make up for the losses. Our SQ position, as well as Citigroup hit SL. Chevron closed in our TP.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~120 - 130 (12,000% - 13,000%) when trading Meta Platforms (META).
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
โก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
โโ-
๐ค4๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃ๐
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ FREE RAPID SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ The Nasdaq hit our tightened SL - very annoying. We saw some selling return in the Big Tech sector, which led to the short-term underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 - while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remained at +0.25% and +0.35% respectively and even managed to gain further.
โบ We re-enter the Nasdaq near the SL at 18500 - 18550 (so it is as if we had stayed in / or minimally improved our entry price). Our SL was too tight here - sorry.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
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๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ LIVE TRADING ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
โบ Gold hit our TP for a nice profit, which we deserved (!) - I rarely say that, but we analyzed gold and the fluctuations as well as the fundamentals very well and were not fooled by the sentiment swings. Congratulations to us all!
โบ Of course, the PCE report, which didn't come in as hot as the sentiment/panic-led market feared, is the decisive factor here.
โบ Gold now has plenty of further upside potential as the biggest headwind has been higher yields on fears that the Fed has no way to cut rates given concerns about a significant reacceleration in inflation. We are getting back into gold near our price target ($2,354 - $2,355).
โบ I still see inflation as (the!) big problem and ultimately the reason the Fed can't cut rates as the market hopes. But the markets are taking the data as it is - and so are we.
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.5 - 0.8 (50% - 80%) when trading gold (XAU/USD).
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
โก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
โโโ-
๐ฅ
2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ4๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ๐2๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ6๏ธโฃ0๏ธโฃโ
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 29.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ
๐ข 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
๐ข 30.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
10/10
๐ก 31.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ
VERY GOOD DATA ๐
Gold now moving towards $2350+, Nasdaq has room to recover. PCE data not hot (even a bit cooler-than-expected, with the Core PCE Price Index MoM APR at +0.2% from +0.3% in March and vs. +0.3% expected), and instead continues to show disinflation is possible. Congratulations!
โก๏ธ LIVE TRADING ๐ฏ
BUY NOW ๐ผ Dow Jones (US30) ๐บ๐ธ
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
โ ๏ธ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN VIP โ ๏ธ
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โโโ-
๐ค๐ค๐ค๐
๐บ๐ธ๐
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ All eyes on US PCE data after Eurozone inflation hotter-than-expectations
The market is waiting as all attention is focused on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation: personal consumption expenditures (PCE). In Europe, yields on Eurozone bonds, such as German bonds, are rising after inflation in the Eurozone accelerated more than expected to 2.6% versus the expected 2.5%, up from 2.4% in April. The stubborn inflation in the Eurozone - although approaching the ECB's target - could mean that interest rate cuts are slow to materialize. The market still expects the ECB to cut interest rates for the first time in June.
Analysts are optimistic that the core PCE deflator, favored by the Fed to measure inflation over other figures, has likely fallen to its slowest monthly increase this year (YoY). Yesterday's US Q1 GDP growth data fuels hopes that the trend in US PCE data does not mirror recent US CPI data. However, the market has been very nervous all week as traders have been bracing for another hot number that could further delay rate cuts from an already increasingly hawkish Fed.
Given that expectations are indeed relatively low, I expect a little more than a 50% chance that the data will be slightly hotter than expected, but possibly not such that the market revises rate cut expectations for this year significantly (further) downwards.
We are looking back on a positive month for equities, unless we see very heavy profit taking today - which I don't expect. This month's gains have been fueled by the rally in tech and a solid earnings season, especially for the big tech companies, including Nvidia's mega report (again) that keeps the AI hype alive.
A jury has found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his hush money trial, making him the first former US president to be convicted of criminal wrongdoing. Trump is due to be sentenced on July 11 and faces a difficult legal and political task when he runs as the Republican candidate against President Joe Biden in November. The verdict is likely to create some (light) headwinds for Wall Street, as a possible conviction could shift the momentum from Trump to Biden.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
โ ๏ธ All eyes on US PCE. Market has already priced in more signs of hot inflation. Due to low expectations the chance for a slightly hot reading is relatively high. The hotter the PCE data, the more the USD and yields will rise, which means headwinds for stocks and yield sensitive assets. Since today's movements depend on PCE data - we keep it short:
May 31 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (depends entirely on PCE data - we don't expect a very hot reading. We may first see some losses, before stocks can likely stabilize a bit. A much hotter-than-expected PCE reading, however, would cause sharp losses).
๐ฑ Forex
EUR โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (suppored by hotter-than-expected Eurozone inflation, would see some headwinds if USE PCE hot)
USD โ๏ธ (depends entirely on US PCE data - if hot, USD will rise back to this week's highs and likely above)
GBP, CHFโก๏ธ/โ๏ธ (would see headwinds on hot US PCE data)
AUD โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (depending on US PCE data - if hot, AUD falls sharply)
JPY โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (weakness despite hotter-than-expected Tokio inflation; BoJ confirmed intervention earlier in May which failed to support the JPY sustainably )
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ (depends on US PCE data - hot data would weigh on all commodity prices)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ (Bitcoin stabilized in range $67K - $70K - hot PCE report would cause short-term headwinds)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
โ ๏ธ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL
๐ SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap ๐
๐ Friday, May 31
โ๏ธ Global stocks mixed ahead key inflation data in Europe and the Fed's preferred inflation read
โบ European stocks posted small moves as traders focused on upcoming inflation data and the European Central Bankโs meeting next week. The Stoxx 600 was little changed at +0.1%, maintaining a 2.4% gain for the month. In France, the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.2% in May, and the Q1 GDP expanded by 0.2%, indicating a stable economic environment. Producer prices in France fell by a hefty 3.6% MoM in April and are likely to have a delayed cooling effect on future consumer prices.
โบ U.S. equity futures are little changed, with S&P 500 futures slipping 0.2% after a tech-driven decline on Thursday. The USD and US Treasuries remained steady ahead of PCE data- which markets have been preparing for all week. Analysts are expecting the core PCE measure to ease slightly in April, which could weigh on the USD modestly. However, the market has been pricing in a rather hot reading and was strongly affected by concerns that today's PCE data could come out hot. Market sentiment is cautious as traders await signals on policy easing from the Federal Reserve. In political news, a jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records at his hush-money trial. With Trump due to face sentencing on July 11, the conviction creates a daunting legal and political path as he faces President Joe Biden in November as the presumptive Republican nominee.
โบ Asian stocks rose, with gains in Japanese and Chinese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is on track for a 2% monthly gain. Despite weak manufacturing data, Chinese stocks climbed, anticipating fiscal and monetary policy support. The official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs missed estimates, with the former falling back into contraction. The Nikkei 225 increased by 0.85%. Japan saw mixed economic signals with a rise in retail sales by 2.4% YoY in April, while industrial production fell by 0.1% month-over-month. Inflation in Tokyo accelerated in May, keeping the Bank of Japan on track to consider a rate hike in the coming months.
โบ Oil prices are little changed to $77.8/barrel, following their biggest drop in almost two weeks, as cease-fire discussions in the Middle East reduced risk premiums. Gold prices are slightly higher benefiting from yesterday's slide in yields at $2,344/oz.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
๐ธ ๐จ๐ณ NBS Manufacturing PMI - 01:30 (released)
๐ธ ๐ฉ๐ช Retail Sales - 06:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ซ๐ท GDP Growth Rate - 06:45 (released)
๐ธ ๐ซ๐ท Inflation Rate / CPI - 06:45 (released)
โฆ๏ธ ๐ช๐บ Inflation Rate / CPI - 09:00
๐ธ ๐ฎ๐น Inflation Rate / CPI - 09:00
๐ธ ๐จ๐ฆ GDP Growth Rate - 12:30
โฆ๏ธ ๐บ๐ธ Core PCE Price Index - 12:30
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ Personal Income - 12:30
๐ธ = Event of medium/high importance
โฆ๏ธ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports
SmartTraderโข Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
โ
Performance: 18.04 - 23.05 (26 trading days)
126 / 152 = 82.9% Success Rate
(April 17 - 7/8 = 87.5% SR dropped out)
โ
24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2341.43)
โ
24.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 39183.4)
โ
24.5 - APPL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 189.98)
โ
24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ(TP - 2346.70|or clsd* ~2335)
โ
24.5 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 114.23)
โ
24.5 - SPX500- LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 5313.40)
6/6 = 100% Success Rate ๐
โ
27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2345.79)
โ
27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2354.87)
2/2 = 100% Success Rate ๐
โ 28.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 38446.70)
โ
28.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 1.08586)
โ
28.5 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 18896.70|clsd ~18900)
โ
28.5 - APPL - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 191.69 / *near break-even) ๐
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2355.37)
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 2356.52)
โ
28.5 - XAU/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 2354.12)
โด๏ธ 28.5 - CVX - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 157.39 | TP โ
@: 159.13
โด๏ธ 28.5 - C - LONG โ๏ธ (open - off-profit)
๐ SL ๐ @: 61.77 | TP โ
@: 62.58
6/9 - (2 open positions)
The combination of Apple, Chevron, Citigroup - which I would consider value plays - was good, but the entries could have been better. We probably should have stayed in Apple - which I think is benefiting from the generally cautious environment with no signs of a drastic economic slowdown = a positive sentiment environment for Apple as a defensive/value-oriented tech option. But we can also find a better re-entry here. Apple would have also hit our TP today (192.49) if UBS had not rated Apple as "neutral".
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Citigroup (C) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 61.77
TP โ
@: 62.58
Block Inc (SQ)๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 64.23
TP โ
@: 65.87
Chevron (CVX) ๐บ๐ธ
SL ๐ @: 157.39
TP โ
@: 159.13
Wir sehen ein paar Gewinnmitnahmen, da sich auch die Renditen stabilisieren und der USD im Vorfeld der morgigen wichtigen Inflationsdaten einen Teil seiner heutigen Verluste/Korrekturen abbaut. Wir aktualisieren einige Aktienpositionen - wir sind hier etwas รผberpositioniert, zumal wir in den letzten Stunden des heutigen regulรคren US-Handels einen vorsichtigen Handel erwartet haben. Block konnte seine Gewinne trotz eines Rรผckgangs der Renditen nicht halten. Bedenken รผber eine sich abschwรคchende Konjunktur kรถnnten hier eine Rolle gespielt haben, aber das meiste, was wir sehen, sind allgemeine Gewinnmitnahmen und Sorgen รผber die morgigen Inflationszahlen (die allerdings bereits eingepreist sind).
Auch der Nasdaq 100 liegt im Minus, wobei vor allem die groรen Technologiewerte Gewinnmitnahmen verzeichnen, darunter auch Nvidia und Chip-Aktien. Microsoft ist wenig verรคndert - wir bleiben LONG.
โโ
We have won more than 81.7% of all our trades this year.
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BUY NOW ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
โบ As we predicted, there are heavy losses in the software sector - Salesforce in particular continues to plummet - now almost 22% (!). The outsized losses in software stocks are also weighing on the S&P 500 - surprisingly not so much on the Nasdaq 100 (but (VIP ONLY) is in the Nasdaq 100 with (VIP ONLY)), as Salesforce is not included in the Nasdaq 100.
โบ We are buying (VIP ONLY) underperformance here (VIP ONLY) and expect the software / cloud giant to cut its losses from here (range (VIP ONLY))
โบToday's economic data was very bond-friendly. Bonds (US Treasuries) rallied strongly and yields fell significantly (currently 7-8 basis points lower for the 10-year US bonds). The slowdown in GDP growth was in line with expectations, but is of course a double-edged sword: while a slow slowdown in the economy helps to bring the conditions for interest rate cuts closer, signs of an economic slowdown are no reason for euphoria.
โบ The lower yields and weaker USD are positive for (VIP ONLY). Losses in CRM are extreme and could continue for a bit - but we are already seeing oversold conditions.
โบ The further fall in yields is also positive for our LONG positions (incl. gold).
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
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๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
โก๏ธ RAPID UPDATE ๐ฐ
Gold (XAU/USD)๐ฅ
SL ๐ @: 2344.69
TP โ
@: 2349.37
Slightly more room to rise / tighter SL.
๐ฐ FREE VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY DURING* NYSE OPENING ๐ผ Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) ๐บ๐ธ
(*during first 5 minutes of regular NYSE trading)
๐ฐ VIP SIGNAL ๐ฏ
BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS ๐ผ (VIP ONLY) ๐บ๐ธ
US data (US GDP growth, jobless claims, PCE QoQ) came in-line, even slightly cooler than expectations which is positive for stocks and bonds as concerns about hot inflation has resulted in traders being increasingly concerned about rates remaining higher for longer.
๐น S&P 500 (- 0.3%) is trying to rebound from sharp overnight losses (after CRM's slump) and a two day's slide. We found an excellent entry and stay LONG for now. We can set a TP โ
@: 5278.90
๐น Apple (+ 0.2%) ended yesterday slightly higher and in outperformance. We expect further slight gains and keep our (tight) SL & TP.
๐น Chevron (+ 0.1%) opens near $157.00. Lower yields a weaker USD may help oil prices to end the slide from yesterday. We set our TP at โ
@: 158.98.
๐น Citigroup (+ 0.2%) opens higher and extends a recovery that started after a weak early performance yesterday. We keep our TP (62.79) but can tighten our SL ๐ @: 61.47.
โบ We are already LONG in the S&P 500 (our position is in profit), but I also see the Nasdaq as attractive as tech stocks have suffered from the pressure of losses in the software sector and cautious sentiment ahead of tomorrow's key inflation data and the recent sharp rise in yields. Now after the US GDP, jobless claims and PCE QoQ data, we see a correction in yields - good for the growth sector and hence the Nasdaq 100. We can take advantage of the NYSE opening volatility and find an entry in the Nasdaq 18675 - 18700* area.
โบ We are going LONG into the yield-sensitive growth stock (VIP ONLY), which has put in a terrible performance of 13.0% over the last 30 days. At a P/E (fwd) of under 20 and still growing at a reasonable pace (outperforming other payment providers / enablers), (VIP ONLY) is very attractively valued in my opinion. Recent financials have been good - especially revenue growth. (VIP ONLY) problem remains its profitability/margins - but margins are also negatively impacted by (VIP ONLY) - I see room for improvement here. If (VIP ONLY) becomes profitable (again), the company has significant upside potential. (VIP ONLY) also benefits from a positive (VIP ONLY). (VIP ONLY) is currently trading more than(VIP ONLY)% higher (pre-market) - while (VIP ONLY) is little changed (VIP ONLY) ...
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
๐ฃ๏ธ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...
โฑ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! โ ๏ธ
โก๏ธ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel!
โโโ
๐ฅ VT Markets (๐ฌ๐ง๐ณ๐ฟ๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Vantage (๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐) <- NEW
๐ฅ PU Prime (๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฌ๐ง๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ฅ Admiral Markets (๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐บ๐ณ๐ฟ๐)
๐ฅ Libertex (๐ช๐บ๐)
๐ ROBโS DAILY UPDATE ๐
โผ๏ธ Inflation concerns remain present & investors cautious; CRM depresses Wall Street
US stocks are down in pre-market trading as investors remain concerned about inflation and rising yields. Heavy losses from Salesforce (CRM; currently -16%), which reported a slowdown in revenue growth, are weighing on Wall Street / software stocks.
European stocks are up slightly, with the Stoxx 600 benefiting from gains in telecoms and banking stocks. Ahead of the US GDP data (12:30 UTC+0), some dip buying can also be observed in New York. The sharp rise in global yields has also been halted for now before tomorrow's inflation data will have a strong impact on rate cut expectations / yields.
However, much of the concern is already priced in: Global equities are on course for their worst week since mid-April. After another tepid US Treasury bond auction, we also see concerns about the financing of the US deficit - an early indicator that yields could rise for longer.
After a strong earnings season overall and a very resilient US economy and US consumer, albeit one that could sustain inflation for longer, pessimism does not seem to be gaining the upper hand for now. The prospect of interest rate cuts remains, as the ECB is likely to make its first rate cut next month.
In commodities, crude oil prices slipped as traders await US inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend for more clarity on the supply and demand outlook. A stronger USD has also weighed on commodity prices over the past two days. We see gold strongly influenced by US yields. With fears that rate cuts may be slow and more distant than hoped, gold continues to face fundamental headwinds. However, the medium-term outlook for gold remains bullish.
We expect some dip buying today, but this will also be influenced by GDP data and the first signs of tomorrow's PCE data with today's QoQ PCE figures. Markets will become very cautious in the second half of US trading ahead of tomorrow's US PCE data and key inflation data from the Eurozone.
๐ ROB'S MARKET OVERVIEW:
May 30 2024
๐/๐บ๐ธ Global Markets โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (stocks seeing some dip buying after overnight/pre-market losses)
Cyclical / Luxury Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Tech/Growth Stocks โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Financial Stocks โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (remains oversold but conditions are positive for US banks)
Defensive Stocks โ๏ธ (health disappoints, consumer staples slightly bullish)
Energy Stocks โก๏ธ
Materials Stocks โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
๐ฑ Forex
JPY, CHF โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (rebounding from recent weakness)
EUR, AUD โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ (slight recovery gains after weakness against USD yesterday)
USD โ๏ธ (stubborn US inflation data priced in, USD remains in demand but for now sees some correction)
GBP, CAD โก๏ธ
โ Commodity Markets โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Oil prices โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Natural Gas prices โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ
Metal prices โ๏ธ/โก๏ธ
Gold โ๏ธ (with strong negative correlation to US Treasury yields, other precious metals with sharp losses)
โก๏ธCryptos โ๏ธ/โ๏ธ (headwinds from rising yields / stronger USD - BTC still on path to re-test $67K)
(*โ๏ธ bullish, โ๏ธ bearish, โก๏ธ sideways / stable, โ๏ธ mixed / volatile)
Your Robert
โ ๏ธ NON-DELAYED ROB'S DAILY UPDATE IN VIP CHANNEL
๐ SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap ๐
๐ Thursday, May 30
โ๏ธ Global markets pressured amid rising yields & weak Salesforce earnings
โบ European stock markets opened with minimal changes as they tracked the overnight selloff in Asia but trim some of the sharp losses of the previous two days. The Stoxx 600 index is currently up 0.3%, reflecting cautious sentiment amid high US Treasury & Eurozone yields. Spain's inflation rate rose to 3.6% in May, up from 3.3% in April but below market forecasts of 3.7%. Investors are focused on upcoming inflation data from Europe (due on 05/31) to gauge future monetary policy directions as well as US PCE - the Fed's preferred inflation reading which will also be reported on Friday.
โบ US stock futures pointed to further declines, following a sharp drop in major indices on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell below 5,300, and the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since May 1. This was strongly affected by Salesforce plunging more than 16% in extended trading after missing revenue expectations and issuing weak guidance. It came as a surprise given optimistic analysts - our chief analyst, however, warned due to large insider selling, especially from Co-Founder and CEO Marc Benioff. Rising Treasury yields, which are near their highest levels this year, also dampened risk appetite, with the 10-y yields hovering around 4.6%. Investors are bracing for key economic data, including GDP figures due later today and the PCE inflation report (due on 05/31), to get insights into the Fedโs next moves.
โบ Asian equities fell sharply, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index hitting a three-week low. South Korea and Japan led the losses, influenced by the global selloff and high rising yields. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%, with the JPY under pressure from a strong USD. Chinaโs Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6% as investors awaited PMI data (due on 05/31) for insights into economic conditions. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also closed lower, reflecting regional market weakness.
โบ WTI Crude oil fell 0.6% to $78.8/barrel as traders await US stockpile data and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for more clarity on supply and demand. Gold prices also dipped slightly and is trading in the range $2,330 - $2,336/oz. The recent movements in commodities reflect the broader market sentiment driven by high bond yields, a stronger USD and cautious monetary policy expectations.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
๐ธ ๐ช๐ธ Inflation Rate / CPI - 07:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ฎ๐น Unemployment Rate - 08:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ช๐บ Economic Sentiment - 09:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ช๐บ Unemployment Rate - 09:00 (released)
๐ธ ๐ฎ๐น PPI - 09:00 (released)
โฆ๏ธ ๐บ๐ธ GDP Growth Rate - 12:30
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ Core PCE Prices - 12:30
๐ธ ๐บ๐ธ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 15:00
๐ธ ๐ฏ๐ต Unemployment Rate - 23:30
๐ธ ๐ฏ๐ต Tokyo Core CPI - 23:30
๐ธ ๐ฏ๐ต Retail Sales - 23:50
๐ธ ๐ฏ๐ต Industrial Production - 23:50
๐ธ = Event of medium/high importance
โฆ๏ธ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
๐ Costco (COST) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ RBC (RY) ๐จ๐ฆ
๐ Dell (DELL) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Marvell (MRVL) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Veeva Systems (VEEV) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) ๐จ๐ฆ
โ๏ธ Dollar General (DG) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ Zscaler (ZS) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ MongoDB (MDB) ๐บ๐ธ
๐ NetApp (NTAP) ๐บ๐ธ
โ๏ธ Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) ๐ฉ๐ช (reported)
(...a few more with market cap <$20B)
SmartTraderโข Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
โ
Performance: 17.04 - 22.05 (26 trading days)
126 / 149 = 84.6% (!) Success Rate
(April 16 - 9/9 = 100% SR dropped out)
โ
23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2362.27)
โ 23.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 39348.3)
โ 23.5 - AUD/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 0.66147 )
โ 23.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (CLSD ~2349.67 | 2349 - 2354)
โ
* 23.5 - AMZN - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 183.77|clsd 183.50) ๐
โ
23.5 - JPM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 199.17)
โ
23.5 - NAS100 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 18822.3)
โ
23.5 - USOIL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 77.497)
โ
23.5 - NAS100 - SHORT โ๏ธ (TP - 18602.6)
โ 23.5 - GBP/USD - SHORT โ๏ธ (SL - 1.27622)
โ
23.5 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL -114.29| or TP - 114.97)
7/11 = 63.6% Success Rate
*potentially slightly off-profit / be if closed at 183.50
โ
24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2341.43)
โ
24.5 - US30 - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 39183.4)
โ
24.5 - APPL - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 189.98)
โ
24.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ(TP - 2346.70|or clsd* ~2335)
โ
24.5 - XOM - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 114.23)
โ
24.5 - SPX500- LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 5313.40)
6/6 = 100% Success Rate ๐
โ
27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (SL - 2345.79)
โ
27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG โ๏ธ (TP - 2354.87)
2/2 = 100% Success Rate ๐
We closed Amazon here really at the limit - too greedy actually, but very well traded also with our slight SL widening yesterday. Amazon was a strong outperformer today - briefly hit the $184.00 before seeing some profit taking again. We see headwinds in the growth sector now with yields and the USD rising as investors are concerned about a reacceleration in inflation. Also Salesforce's mega losses will cause some headwinds in the software sector tomorrow.
Wow ... that's what I call a crash.
Especially bitter, as the analysts and expert were very bullish for Salesforce. Although the figures are not catastrophic Salesforce is massively crashing (currently -17% !). Revenue came in below expectations. Earnings per share were slightly above expectations. The forecast was broadly in line with expectations but disappointed investors. The heavy losses shows how optimistic the Street was here.
We feared mediocre data as Salesforce's CEO and CFO sold massive amounts of (their) stocks ahead of the earnings report - something the Street and the analyst and investment banks apparently failed to recognize. This was probably a good spot to trade against the market and instead follow the insider selling.
Salesforce's massive losses also caused the Dow Jones to drop nearly 300 points causing our Dow Jones (if you were still in) hitting our tight SL.