⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
EUR/JPY
SL 🔑 @: 169.489
TP ✅ @: 169.026
We hit the mini-spike perfectly after the already significant losses of the EUR/JPY overnight. Our position is more than 40 pips in profit.
We set an in-profit SL and the TP to the next key level. The JPY continues to benefit from the expectation that the gap between Japanese/European bond yields and interest rates will narrow.
———-
❌ NO MORE MISSING OUT ❌
Over the last 4 weeks we won 10 out of our 11 FX trades.
✅ 25.6 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 01.7 - EUR/CAD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 09.7 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 10.7 - NZD/USD - LONG ↗️
❌ 11.7 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 11.7 - EUR/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 17.7 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 19.7 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 22.7 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 22.7 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✴️✅ 23.7 - EUR/JPY - SHORT ↘️ (SL in Profit)
10/11 = 90.9% Success Rate
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ 19867.40
Our TP triggered shortly after NYSE opening. We continue to see mixed markets. We remain LONG in our Dow Jones (currently near flat).
If you are still in the Nasdaq 100 - set a TP / close in the range 19867 - 19897 as we will likely see some technical resistance at 19900 and still profit taking waves allowing us to anyways get back into the Nasdaq 100 at a lower price.
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
⚠️ 2/3 trading size
► We see Wall Street slightly down an hour before the NYSE opens. The Dow Jones has now fallen back to 40450 - we get in. The Nasdaq 100 is also down (our LONG position was movin in and out of profit), with chip stocks, which had a strong run yesterday, seeing some profit-taking in pre-market trading.
► Profit taking in chip stocks need not be a headwind for the Dow Jones - which can benefit from yesterday's gains by broadening further (away from Big Tech).
► We see optimistic investors ahead of the Alphabet / Tesla earnings report after the US close.
► We saw mostly positive earnings today - from companies in various sectors such as Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, General Motors, Freeport McMorgan with only minor exceptions such as UPS. Spotify and the German software giant SAP also shone in Europe.
► We expect the Dow Jones to remain in recovery mode.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 2.5 - 3 (250% - 300%) trading the Dow Jones (US30) - 2/3 trading size
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 50+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
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This was our EUR/USD trade from yesterday (so you can still see the analysis, which is still up to date).
Читать полностью…📊 SmartTrader Insights: Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Tuesday, July 23
❗️ Stocks mixed as markets focus on upcoming key corporate earnings reports: Alphabet & Tesla after NYSE closing
► The Stoxx 600 Index in Europe is little change as investors turned their attention to a busy week of corporate earnings. Porsche lowered its outlook due to a shortage of aluminum parts, which could halt production of some models, compounding pressure from slowing sales in China. Banco Sabadell’s profit jumped in the second quarter, aiding the CEO's effort to fend off a takeover by BBVA. Markets await several earnings report, most notably from luxury goods conglomerate LVMH which plays a major role, especially for the French CAC40. German software giant SAP reported yesterday (after NYSE closing). SAP's Q2 2024 results show a 10% revenue increase to €8.29 billion, driven by a 25% rise in cloud revenue. The software giant trades more than 6% higher, trading at record levels.
► U.S. equity futures drifted slightly lower following a strong Monday session driven by mega-cap tech stocks. Companies representing 29% of the S&P 500 market value are set to report earnings this week, including tech giants Tesla and Alphabet set to report later today. Also Visa's earnings report, which also is a barometer for US/global consumer demand will be watched closely. Analysts anticipate details on Tesla’s robotaxi service (potentially more about Tesla's humanoid robot plans) and strong growth in Alphabet’s Google Cloud revenue. Positie expectations for both Tesla and Alphabet may keep positive momentum alive in big tech according to our chief analyst Robert Linder. In addition to this, U.S. readings on the economy and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE Price Index) are also expected later this week.
► The Asia-Pacific equity market was mixed, with gains in technology stocks such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics buoying the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Japanese shares rose slightly amid expectations of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. However, China’s markets extended losses due to economic concerns and policy uncertainties, while Hong Kong’s inflation rate rose to a three-month high.
► Oil prices remained steady at around $78.3/barrel, after the largest drop in nearly two weeks as discussions of a cease-fire in the Middle East eased geopolitical tensions. More importantly, concerns about the global and Chinese economy weighs on oil demand expectations. Gold prices steadied at around the $2,397/oz level, after dropping for the past 4 sessions.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇪🇺 Consumer Confidence - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
🌙 Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸 ❗️
🌙 Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸 ❗️
🌙 Visa (V) 🇺🇸 ❗️
☀️ Louis Vuitton (LVMUY) 🇫🇷 ❗️
☀️ Coca-Cola (KO) 🇺🇸
🌙 Texas Instruments (TXN) 🇺🇸
☀️ Danaher (DHR) 🇺🇸
☀️ General Electric (GE) 🇺🇸
☀️ Philip Morris (PM) 🇺🇸
☀️ Comcast (CMCSA) 🇺🇸
☀️ United Parcel Service (UPS) 🇺🇸
☀️ Lockheed Martin (LMT) 🇺🇸
🌙 Chubb (CB) 🇺🇸
☀️ HCA (HCA) 🇺🇸
☀️ Moody’s (MCO) 🇺🇸
☀️ Sherwin-Williams (SHW) 🇺🇸
🌙 Canadian National Railway (CNI) 🇨🇦
☀️ Freeport-McMoran (FCX) 🇺🇸
☀️ Spotify (SPOT) 🇸🇪
☀️ PACCAR (PCAR) 🇺🇸
☀️ General Motors (GM) 🇺🇸
🌙 Capital One Financial (COF) 🇺🇸
(...a few more with market cap <$50B)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 10.06 - 15.07 (26 trading days)
104 / 142 = 73.2% Success Rate
(June 7 - 4/4 = 100% 🏆 SR dropped out)
✅ 16.7 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 40309.30 |or TP - 40413.30)
✅ 16.7 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8182.30)
✅ 16.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (clsd @ 2447.11|or +, TP - 2448.89)
✅ 16.7 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 5656.30)
❌ 16.7 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 186.67)
❌ 16.7 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 5593.70)
4/6 = 66.7% Success Rate
✅ 17.7 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (clsd @ 1.30047 or 1.30000-75)
✅ 17.7 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7539.70)
✅ 17.7 - UNH - LONG ↗️ (SL - 563.89 | or TP - 569.94)
✅ 17.7 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 186.67 - *re-entry)
✅ 17.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2461.37| or TP - 2468.89)
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 18.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19918.70)
❌ 18.7 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18218.40)
❌ 18.7 - SHOP - LONG ↗️ (SL - 63.29, clsd ~63.50 or SL - 62.67)
❌ 18.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19774.70)
✅/❌* 18.7 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (TP - 184.79, clsd 184.50+)
(*I closed off-profit SL -182.23, but majority of members in profit)
✅ 18.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19747.30)
❌ 18.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2429.23)
2/7 (or 3/7) = 28.6% Success Rate
73.2% is the lowest success rate we have had in a 5 week period since mid 2020 (which is of course a huge success and still very positive compared to other short term traders - however it is not the level we want to reach).
Otherwise no update on these positions. The market continues to move sideways with sentiment-driven dips and swings. In the medium term, the recent dip is an opportunity to re-enter - we also expect short-term dip buying to gain the upper hand for now. Tomorrow's earnings reports from Tesla and, above all, Alphabet, will play an important role (reports post NYSE closing).
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► After successfully trading the recent slide in the Nasdaq 100, we are now positioning ourselves bullish in the short term. Today's dip buying was indeed met with profit-taking, but mostly ended at higher lows - especially in the tech sector.
► I assume that the current dip buying in the tech sector will continue with tomorrow's earnings reports (or before the reports) from Tesla and Alphabet. Tesla rose more than 10% after its last earnings report, despite suffering a 9% drop in first quarter revenue - the biggest year-over-year decline since 2012. It's the "Elon factor" - after the Tesla CEO said Tesla plans to start producing an affordable new electric car by early 2025. Tomorrow, Elon Musk is likely to announce more details on his robots / robotaxi plans, including a typically overoptimistic delivery schedule. That might be enough to keep Tesla/Musk fans happy.
► I expect a positive earnings report from Alphabet, and so does the market.
► We are therefore buying the Nasdaq's mini dip range 19810 - 19835 and expect further gains tomorrow. We also set a tight TP for our DAX position, which is slightly off-profit: TP ✅ @: 18430.60 / and a tight SL 🔑 @: 18497.10
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———-
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📊 SmartTrader Premium Insights: Analyst Rating Updates
📆 Monday, July 22
🟢 Positive Ratings:
Apple (AAPL) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Wells Fargo reiterates as ”OVERWEIGHT”
Price Target: $225 ⤴️ $275
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) names as ”TOP PICK”
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ⤴️ $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🔴⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”BUY”
Previously: "UNDERPERFORM"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ⤴️ $(VIP ONLY)
Coinbase (COIN) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Oppenheimer reiterates as ”OUTPERFORM”
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”OVERWEIGHT”
Previously: "EQUAL WEIGHT"
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”BUY”
Previously: "HOLD"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ⤴️ $(VIP ONLY)
Micron (MU) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Citigroup adds as "NEGATIVE CATALYST WATCH"
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Citigroup adds as ”POSITIVE CATALYST WATCH”
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Piper Sandler reiterates as ”OVERWEIGHT”
Price Target: $120 ⤴️ $140
🟡 Neutral Ratings:
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) 🇺🇸🟡
Analyst: TD Cowen initiates as ”HOLD”
Price Target: $465
CrowdStrike (CRWD) 🇺🇸🟢⤵️🟡
Analyst: Guggenheim downgrades to ”NEUTRAL”
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $393 ⤵️ $300
CrowdStrike (CRWD) 🇺🇸🟡
Analyst: Scotiabank reiterates as ”SECTOR PERFORM”
Price Target: $393 ⤵️ $300
Estee Lauder (EL) 🇺🇸🟢⤵️🟡
Analyst: Raymond James downgrades to ”MARKET PERFORM”
Previously: "STRONG BUY"
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢⤵️🟡
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) downgrades to ”NEUTRAL”
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ⤵️ $(VIP ONLY)
Uber (UBER) 🇺🇸🟡
Analyst: Melius initiates as ”HOLD”
Price Target: $77
🔴 Negative Ratings:
N/A
Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.
🟢 = positive rating
🟡 = neutral rating
🔴 = negative rating
⤴️ = upgrade
⤵️ = downgrade
You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE 🔗
💬 As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!
SmartTrader™ Analyst team
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
GBP/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.29216
TP ✅ @: 1.29012
As the USD sold off in pre-market US trading (= Asian trading), we found a good entry point into the GBP/USD. The USD recovered and is now unchanged on a daily basis (but still not higher / DXY at -0.02%).
We expect the USD to continue to benefit from more clarity in the presidential election campaign, which will most likely be between Trump and Harris. Expectations of a Trump victory will rise again/further - especially if initial forecasts show Trump "still" ahead (especially in key swing states).
The USD would benefit from Trump's likely stronger protectionism and a further decoupling from China.
Overall, we see little volatility in the currency market, which is why we are setting our price target at a key level (1.29000), which is likely to be reached soon.
———
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SELL NOW 🔽 GBP/USD
► We see the correction in bonds / the USD reversing and the "Trump Trade" returning as markets assess Kamala Harris' chances of winning against former US President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race - I see the chance as very low and continue to see Trump clearly as the future US President.
► A Kamala Harris presidency would mean a political status quo in most areas, giving Trump plenty of room to attack Harris. However, Harris has also shown little clout in her recent (few) appearances (incl. some odd appearances), which Team Trump and Trump supporters will likely use to undermine Harris. A Harris presidency could bring a greater focus on tax relief for low-to-middle income consumers and additional consumer-related regulatory measures. I see the US continuing to tighten Chinese tariffs and exports under both potential presidents, but under Trump this would likely be accelerated - positive for the USD.
► We are seeing a recovery in tech stocks that sold off heavily last week, with Nvidia also finding support after falling to the technically important 50-day moving average.
► Biden's support for Harris as well as other key Democratic voices such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and megadonor George Soros make it very likely that Harris will be the Democratic nominee.
► We buy the slight USD weakness and trade against the GBP. UK retail sales fell by 1.2%, well above the expected fall of 0.4%. This was a significant drop from May when sales rose by 2.9% - which also puts pressure on the GBP. Expectations of a rate cut by the BoE have fallen slightly following the still high inflation data, which has recently supported the GBP. However, I see the GBP as vulnerable at the current level, as risk sentiment in Europe also remains fragile.
► The stronger USD has pushed the gold price down to $2,395. We found a good entry point but should have closed earlier. If you set a tight SL - this was triggered. A stronger USD could put further pressure on gold. It is more likely that we will now see slight additional selling as there are signs of the "Trump Trade" returning.
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 45+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———-
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, July 22
❗️ European and US Stock Futures rise after President Biden withdraws from 2024 presidential race
► European equity futures rose sharply, with the Euro Stoxx 600 contract up over 0.9% despite a weak performance from Asian equities. In corporate news, Ryanair fell 13% after the company lowered its outlook for ticket prices, indicating cautious consumer behavior. SAP, Germany's most valuable company, publishes its results later in the day.
► US stock futures rose in pre-market trading on Monday, with the S&P 500 trading 0.4% higher and the Nasdaq up over 0.35%, after President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race, which many Democratic leaders wanted, and he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. The 81-year-old was the first president in more than half a century not to seek re-election. He withdrew from the 2024 presidential race on Sunday and endorsed 59-year-old Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee to run against Donald Trump in less than four months - it will be the shortest presidential race in history. The USD fell, while yields on ten-year government bonds fell by 2 basis points to 4.21%. Tesla and Alphabet will be the first of the Magnificent Seven to report results on Tuesday. Analysts are likely to ask Elon Musk's electric car giant about progress on its robotaxi plans. And investors will be looking at the details of how Google's parent company is boosting sales through artificial intelligence. Investors will now focus on upcoming key economic data, including the second quarter GDP growth rate and PCE inflation.
► Asian equities fell, mainly due to weakness in the tech sector. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by over 1.4 % ahead of the Bank of Japan's meeting next week. In China, the PBOC unexpectedly lowered short-term money market rates to support the economy. Nevertheless, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93% as investors were disappointed by the lack of strong stimulus measures. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 0.92%, benefiting from China's political promises to reform and modernize its economy.
► Oil prices fell further to around $78.5/barrel (spot price; $80.0 Aug′24 contract price) after posting their biggest drop in almost two weeks on discussions of a possible ceasefire in the Middle East. Gold prices are trading around $2,400 - 2,405/oz ahead of the Fed meeting next week. Bitcoin rose to its highest level in over a month, hitting around $68,000, boosted by record inflows into US bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate - 01:15 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index - 12:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ SAP (SAP) 🇩🇪
☀️ Verizon (VZ) 🇺🇸
🌙 Cadence Design (CDNS) 🇺🇸
🌙 NXP (NXPI) 🇳🇱
☀️ Truist Financial (TFC) 🇺🇸
☀️ IQVIA Holdings (IQV) 🇺🇸
🌙 Nucor (NUE) 🇺🇸
🌙 Brown&Brown (BRO) 🇺🇸
☀️ Ryanair (RYAAY) 🇮🇪(released)
(...a few more with market cap <$20B)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 07.06 - 12.07 (26 trading days)
106 / 143 = 74.1% Success Rate
(June 6 - 6/6 = 100% 🏆 SR dropped out)
✅ 15.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2442.89|or clsd 2442.50+)
❌ 15.7 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 227.97)
✅ 15.7 - WFC - LONG ↗️ (TP - 60.13| or clsd 59.65-97)
2/3 = 66.7% Success Rate
✅ 16.7 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 40309.30 |or TP - 40413.30)
✅ 16.7 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8182.30)
✅ 16.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (clsd @ 2447.11|or +, TP - 2448.89)
✅ 16.7 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 5656.30)
❌ 16.7 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 186.67)
❌ 16.7 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 5593.70)
4/6 = 66.7% Success Rate
✅ 17.7 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (clsd @ 1.30047 or 1.30000-75)
✅ 17.7 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7539.70)
✅ 17.7 - UNH - LONG ↗️ (SL - 563.89 | or TP - 569.94)
✅ 17.7 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 186.67 - *re-entry)
✅ 17.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2461.37| or TP - 2468.89)
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
*no update*
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 19525.30 | or closed 19515 - 19535
Absolutely happy with the additional "small" profit here. We made huge profits today by shorting the Nasdaq 100. This is a great close - next week the fundamentals / market sentiment could be different.
I expect the correction to continue for a bit next week and there will be little positive momentum for now (on Monday) to drive the Nasdaq and continued expensive Big Tech stocks higher on a sustained basis (as rate cut expectations have little room to rise further) - but I therefore prefer to get out here.
Then on Tuesday, Microsoft and Alphabet report - which can and likely will completely change the mood on Wall Street.
———-
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
NVIDIA (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 118.53
TP ✅ @: 117.06
Nvidia continues to slide, with further profit taking in the second half of US trading (as we predicted).
We now see some stabilization, with the S&P 500 also hitting technical support at 5500 and the Nasdaq 100 at 19500.
We are also selling the current small dip (VIP ONLY):
———
⚡️ RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
► We see a mini-rebound after the (VIP ONLY) fell below (VIP ONLY). We can position ourselves SHORT (VIP ONLY) range.
► We see yields / USD stabilizing - which is calming down markets - but we continue to see investors concerned about(VIP ONLY). In addition, (VIP ONLY) and (VIP ONLY) have been very weak today - keeping (VIP ONLY)...
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...
⏱ Signal / Update DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 79.50 (area) // Aug'24 81.30
OR
TP ✅ @: 79.367
We close our WTI position which is very deep in profit with oil falling back near July lows. WTI sees technical support in the range 79.00 - 79.50. You can also set a TP slightly lower 79.36 (spot).
We see higher yields and the USD keeping recent gains (USD index DXY is up 0.15% today). Also the equity markets fell again after a bull trap which caused also initially oil prices to rebound (which we took advantage of).
———-
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 40484.95
TP ✅ @: 40552.30 (or slightly wider)
OR
CLOSE SOON ✅ @: 40535 - 40560
We set our TP near session highs (or close now / soon) and set an in-profit SL. We continue see dip buying following buy profit taking. We can find a better entry price. We generally see mixed markets and a market searching for more guidance.
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BUY WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔼 Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸
We see mixed stocks in New York, with a focus on earnings - especially the first two "Magnificent 7" stocks to report after the bell (Tesla, Alphabet). In the chip sector, there was some selling after yesterday's strong gains as Dutch semiconductor developer and manufacturer NXP Semiconductors fell after announcing weak forecasts. Overall, however, there were mostly positive earnings reports from companies in various sectors.
🔹 Nasdaq (0.0%) and Dow Jones (+0.1%) are relatively unchanged for the day. We have found solid entries in both indices. You can set a tight TP for our position in the Nasdaq 100 near yesterday's highs: TP ✅ 19867.40. There will be significantly more volatility after the open.
🔹 Cisco (+0.1%) opens little changed after falling into the range we expected yesterday and even a little further. Cisco has a very attractive valuation - which is rare as an important component in the Nasdaq 100. We can work with a tight TP ✅ 47.17.
► (VIP ONLY) will open lower, although the company clearly (VIP ONLY). The (VIP ONLY) reported adjusted earnings per share of (VIP ONLY). (VIP ONLY) reported revenue of $(VIP ONLY) billion for the three-month period, beating analysts' consensus of $(VIP ONLY) billion in the June quarter. In addition, (VIP ONLY) forecast for(VIP ONLY). The (VIP ONLY) benefited greatly from strong pricing and demand for (VIP ONLY) sector is weakening. (VIP ONLY) opens below $(VIP ONLY) after a strong performance yesterday. We expect support at/below $(VIP ONLY) ...
► We are also positioning LONG in Alphabet, which opens little changed at the NYSE open. Investors are likely optimistic ahead of Alphabet's earnings report and expect strong growth in Alphabet's cloud segment. Alphabet surprised positively in its last annual report with accelerated growth, improved guidance, a maiden dividend and a $70 billion buyback plan. Even though Alphabet will not rise as much as it did in April, investors will be bracing themselves for a positive earnings report. We find an entry point near $182.00.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 280 - 300 (28,000% - 30,000%) when trading Alphabet (GOOGL)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-
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SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/JPY
► There continues to be little movement on the FX markets, and this is likely to remain the case for most of the day, as there is hardly any important economic data on the agenda today - investors are waiting for important economic data later this week and are focusing on the upcoming earnings reports (in particular Tesla and Alphabet today).
► Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed, the BoC (tomorrow) or the ECB are still very high. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos hinted at a possible rate cut in September after the ECB suspended rates last week. de Guindos comments are less dovish than Lagarde's statements during the ECB press conference - but signs of a weak Eurozone economy, as well as poor sentiment data and rising unemployment, point to further monetary easing.
► The spread between yields on Western/US bonds and Japanese bonds is narrowing as the Bank of Japan is expected to tighten its monetary policy further and may even raise interest rates at next week's rate decision.
► We continue to see the JPY on the road to recovery, also thanks to the fact that the JPY is slowly regaining safe haven status and the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance are sending strong signals to further support the still historically very weak yen.
► We sell the slight recovery of the EUR/JPY (at 169.700+) after even heavier losses and continue to see the JPY on the rise.
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
EUR/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.08813
TP ✅ @: 1.08636
We found a good entry point into the EUR/USD yesterday and secured profits. We continue to see subdued volatility and movement on the currency markets. The USD remains in demand as the US economy and US equity markets continue to outperform and expectations are rising that trade tensions between the US and China will increase in the coming months.
Our EUR/USD analysis / trade was only posted in the VIP channel yesterday
✅ 19.7 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 79.552| clsd 79.500 or lower)
✅ 19.7 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19657.30 | or SL - 19662.60)
✅ 19.7 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (clsd ~0.66820| or SL - 0.66883)
✅ 19.7 - NVDA - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 119.57)
✅ 19.7 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (clsd 19552.20|or 19550-88.70)
✅ 19.7 - NVDA - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 118.53)
✅ 19.7 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19525.30 or clsd@: 19515-35)
7/7 - 100% 🏆 Success Rate
TODAY :
❌ 22.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2395.33)
✅ 22.7 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.29216)
✅ 22.7 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 40468.70)
✴️ 22.7 - CSCO - LONG ↗️ (open - slightly-off-profit)
✴️ 22.7 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 18506.30 | TP ✅ @: 18411.70
✴️ 22.7 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
✴️ 22.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - just-entered)
2/7 - (4 - open positions)
The markets have been very sentiment-driven in recent days, partly due to the high level of uncertainties. Wednesday, for example, saw the sharpest one-day drop since 2022, whereas today was one of the strongest days for the S&P 500 (and even more so for the Nasdaq 100) in weeks. Analysts are strongly divided: some investors see the time to sell, while others see the recent slump as a buying opportunity. I belong to the optimistic group, especially in view of the imminent interest rate cuts. A look at hedge funds shows that net long-short leverage, a typical barometer of risk appetite and expectations for the stock market, is at 49.8% (not including today) - the lowest appetite for LONG positions since March 2023. Today's rally looked healthier, however, as investors are optimistic about the earnings season.
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🔰
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
SL 🔑 @: 18506.30
TP ✅ @: 18411.70
Our DAX is slightly out of the money ahead of SAP's earnings report. We are working with a tight SL and a slightly in-profit TP - slight change to our previous update.
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SELL NOW 🔽 DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
► We see that the upswing in New York is already showing signs of fizzling out and profits are once again being met with profit-taking.
► The recent rotation away from big tech and towards small caps has room to continue and will keep Wall Street under pressure in the coming sessions as the still expensive big tech stocks make up the bulk of the S&P 500 and even more of the Nasdaq 100.
► The focus will be on upcoming earnings reports - but investors will be watching closely for signs of a slowdown in big tech earnings. The numbers need to be outstanding to reverse the current momentum and get investors back into big tech.
► We still see the DAX 1.4% higher (shortly after the end of XETR trading). European equities rallied strongly on excitement that vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, backed by leading Democratic voices and megadonor George Soros, has a better chance against Donald Trump. Concerns about more US protectionism and a renewed trade war between the US and China, which would also affect the German economy, have recently weighed heavily on the DAX. The current optimism regarding Harris is likely to fizzle out early.
► We see today's strong gains and sell the DAX now as it hits resistance at 18460. High expectations for SAP limit the upside potential of Germany's most valuable company despite the expected strong revenue growth in SAP's cloud segment.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 6 - 8 (600% - 800%) when trading the DAX (GER_40)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 40468.70
TP ✅ @: 40577.30
We see dip-buying in New York - which broadened a bit away from only big tech. We secure profit with our Dow Jones. We see balanced buying and selling but increased resistance above 40500.
⏱ Update DELAYED by: 10+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
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BUY AFTER* NYSE OPENS 🔼 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
We see tech stocks trading positively again pre-market as investors overall look beyond the ending of Joe Biden's presidential campaign and focus on the current earnings season - with some key earnings reports this week. We see increased volatility - but also no more than last week - after a pullback with increased volatility in the previous week. US economic data will remain in focus. The latest US economic data was mostly positive, especially the inflation picture has improved, so the market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in September.
► I do not want to overtrade here or fall into a potential bull trap. However, we are seeing solid signs of dip-buying: the Nasdaq 100 is trading significantly 1% higher than Friday's closing price - AI and large tech stocks in particular are rebounding from sharp dips, which means that the Nasdaq is outperforming other US indices. We also see Europe significantly higher. We are buying the flat Dow Jones - which is still near 40400 or more than 1000 (!) points below Thursday's highs. The Dow Jones is weighed down by a slight rotation back to the big tech companies and weakness in UnitedHealth - with fears that Harris' could have a negative impact on healthcare/pharma stocks. We have recently seen an improvement in market breadth - a recovery in tech stocks also means gains in other sectors.
► In addition, we can look at (VIP ONLY), which is also trading flat or even slightly negative in pre-market trading, despite playing a key role in (VIP ONLY) and AI-related stocks rallying strongly in pre-market trading today. (VIP ONLY) has an attractive valuation (at around 15 P/E or just 13 Fwd P/E), with (VIP ONLY) still growing at a solid pace. (VIP ONLY) in May. Earnings per share and revenue beat expectations - including healthy revenue guidance and a very strong operating margin of (VIP ONLY) ...
► In addition, the company's (VIP ONLY) engagement should be a reliable growth point, especially after the CrowdStrike mega "hiccup", which I believe will have a lasting negative impact on Crowdstrike.
► We are buying the (VIP ONLY) underperformance today (VIP ONLY). We are looking for an entry in the (VIP ONLY)* range.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) trading the Dow Jones (US30).
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———-
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BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
► We are seeing a muted reaction in bonds and a slight easing in the USD (the USD index DXY has fallen by 0.15%). The markets have been pricing in Trump's return to the White House for weeks and have reduced their holdings of long-term US bonds, which has supported the USD (= higher yields) and increased the purchase of Bitcoin. In addition, expectations rose that the decoupling between the US and China would accelerate under Trump. Some investors are now considering whether the "Trump trade" is still in full swing - so we are seeing a small correction to recent movements.
► We are seeing slightly lower yields overall across the yield curve - making gold more attractive as it reduces the opportunity cost of owning gold.
► The general uncertainty following the Biden withdrawal has also led to some "normal" risk reflexes, such as some JPY buying and a widening of losses in AUD.
► High expectations of Fed rate cuts and the expectation that the JPY could recover if the Bank of Japan changes its tone at the upcoming meeting are also weighing on the USD.
► We are buying gold in the range between $2,401 - $2,405 and expect some gains after last week's strong sell-off. We can work with a fairly tight SL.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 45+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———-
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✅ 18.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19918.70)
❌ 18.7 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18218.40) 🔄
❌ 18.7 - SHOP - LONG ↗️ (SL - 63.29, clsd ~63.50 or SL - 62.67) 🔄
❌ 18.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19774.70)
✅/❌* 18.7 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (TP - 184.79, clsd 184.50+)
(*I closed off-profit SL -182.23, but majority of members in profit)
✅ 18.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19747.30)
❌ 18.7 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2429.23) 🔄
2/7 (or 3/7) = 28.6% Success Rate
TODAY :
✅ 19.7 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 79.552| clsd 79.500 or lower) 📸
✅ 19.7 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19657.30 | or SL - 19662.60) 📸
✅/✴️ 19.7 - AUD/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL in profit | clsd ~0.66820)
👉 CLOSED in profit or SL 🔑 @: 0.66883 | TP ✅ @: 0.66796
✅ 19.7 - NVDA - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 119.57) 📸
✅ 19.7 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (clsd 19552.20|or 19550-88.70) 📸
✅ 19.7 - NVDA - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 118.53)
✅ 19.7 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 19525.30 or clsd@: 19515-35)
7/7 - 100% 🏆 Success Rate (pot. 1 open position)
We closed our positions from yesterday too late and were also unlucky with Amazon (+Shopify) opening lower - which at least most of you closed better than me. Yesterday's bad session was followed by today's mega session in which we avoided all bull traps and hit extremely good entry points and closed our positions very well. Our gains with our oil trade (even more was possible) and with the Nasdaq 100 (with more than 250 points gain) were very impressive. Congratulations!
Have a pleasant weekend, Rob 🤙
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
AUD/USD
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 0.66810 - 0.66825 (plus spread)
OR
SL 🔑 @: 0.66883
TP ✅ @: 0.66796
We may close our AUD/USD here as well, as a stabilization in the markets on Monday could help the AUD/USD move back to 0.67000. However, commodity prices remain under pressure as market sentiment deteriorates and weakness in China persists. There are also growing concerns of further protectionism measures that could hurt the global economy (but likely help Wall Street) if Trump becomes president again (which I give a greater than 90% probability = extremely likely).
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW / SOON ✅ @: 19515 - 19535 (in-profit)
OR
TP ✅ @: 19525.30
There is some more profit taking in the last few minutes, but Wall Street closes slightly above the lows. I prefer not to carry our Nasdaq position into next week as Monday starts quietly (German tech giant SAP reports, but the week starts quietly overall). We are now setting a tight TP or closing (slightly in profit). The market does have fears that further uncertainty will emerge over the weekend - but these need not be confirmed - and if not, we could see a positive start to a quiet Monday.
However, it is likely that the losses in Asia will continue next week. I still see room to the downside here after weeks of very strong gains on the back increasing rate cut expectations. However, we can most likely find a better entry point and save holding fees closing now.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🔰
NVIDIA (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 119.07
TP ✅ @: 117.06
We again secure profits with Nvidia which fell to session lows. We may see again dip buying but we expect further selling towards NYSE closing. We work with a wide TP.
———
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SELL NOW 🔽 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
► In case (VIP ONLY) - we still expect more profit taking and (VIP ONLY)(VIP ONLY) falling into the (VIP ONLY) range before NYSE closing today. You can find an entry near (VIP ONLY) ...
► We found the perfect re-entry into the Nasdaq 100 - which fell now below 19600. The Nasdaq 100 is a hard to avoid bull trap today - with many investors buying the dips and facing more losses. We continue to see volatile trading but expect rebounds to hit more profit taking waves.
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———
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