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► We saw slight additional gains in New York - the Nasdaq 100 rose above 19650 after initially hitting resistance. We now see the Nasdaq even above 19700, while the S&P 500 hit more technical resistance (temporary) at 5600. Everything points to further gains in upcoming sessions - once again a rather quiet session tomorrow - with the RBA meeting minutes not bringing anything new and only the Canadian inflation data possibly leading to some data-driven volatility.
► The likely ongoing disinflation in Canada - probably also due to lower energy/fuel prices - could increase expectations of rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
► We are seeing a very positive session today with all 11 S&P sectors in the green - technology/communications stocks in particular have outperformed as expected.
► Lower oil prices and hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East as well as another very positive session in New York will likely lead to another positive opening for (VIP ONLY), which also benefited from gains in China/Hong Kong today.
► The EUR gained today, which will limit the upside for the EUR tomorrow, especially if the German Producer Price Index shows more signs of disinflation. We are also seeing strong gains in consumer cyclicals. Luxury stocks in particular have performed well today, thanks in part to gains in China. We are buying the (VIP ONLY) here at near (VIP ONLY) and expect further gains tomorrow.
► The (VIP ONLY) room for recovery - after the August sell-off and the heavy losses following (VIP ONLY) ...
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...
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Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19594.40
TP ✅ @: 19648.70
Beautiful re-entry - although it looks like we could have just stayed LONG - we took home another profit (profits that can't be taken away).
The Nasdaq 100 is up again and also above 19600 as expected. We set the TP at ~19650 (100 points above our entry).
Breathtaking index trading again today - congratulations! We have been doing "this" better than any other short-term trader for a few weeks now. 🏆
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Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
Beautiful - congratulations!
Also the Nasdaq tested now again the 19600 - we may again see slight profit taking now.
You can also choose to close Nvidia here (127.50+)
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 126.54
TP ✅ @: 127.69
We don't want to be too greedy - but we slightly update further (tighter SL / wider TP) as we see still a very bullish momentum. What a trade 🤩
🔰 UPDATE SIGNAL 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19553.70
TP ✅ @: 19616.90
Our Nasdaq 100 position is about 100 points in profit. We quickly set an in-profit SL here. If broken - we once again can buy the dip near/below 19500.
——
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BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► We secured our Nasdaq 100 well - could potentially have closed a little higher as we expected some profit taking. If you are still LONG - we expect a recovery and stronger support at 19450.
► We are getting back in here and buying the current dip below 19500.
►We see some losses in Apple (after rather poor rating updates from investment banks) and heavy losses in AI chip giant Broadcom, further losses also in Applied Materials, as well as Tesla. We expect the Nasdaq to recover and thus buy this dip.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 5 - 7 (500% - 700%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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🔰 UPDATE SIGNAL 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19519.90 (optional)
TP ✅ @: 19586.90
We see stocks continuing to move sideways in the US (similar to Friday) - although the overall positive market sentiment continues. We see Europe continuing to rally on rate cut optimism and after a strong performance in the previous week.
We set a relatively tight TP and an in-profit SL. The Nasdaq is likely to stay in the range between 19450 - 19650 for a while, which gives us the opportunity for a better re-entry if our position in the Nasdaq 100 closes in profit. Especially around the NYSE opening - there will be a bit more volatility.
You can also go with a wider SL and wait a little longer for the Nasdaq to break above last week's highs.
———
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, August 19
❗️ Slow start to a busy week; Stocks little changed as investors await more economic data & Powell comments
► European stocks traded little changed on Monday as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The Stoxx 600 index showed minimal movement, with defense stocks, including Rheinmetall, falling sharply after reports suggested that Germany might reduce its financial support for Ukraine.
► In the US, stock futures are also little changed after yet another positive session and the strongest single week performance since November 2023. Investors await this week’s crucial insights from Powell on the potential for interest rate cuts. Last week's rally, which brought the S&P 500 close to a record high, left traders treading carefully at the start of this week. The focus remains on Friday’s Jackson Hole event, where Powell is expected to outline the Federal Reserve's medium-term strategy amid easing inflation pressures and economic momentum. Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of a US recession to 20%, following encouraging retail sales and more robust signs from the labor market again. The USD gave back more of last week's recovery gains with the DXY (US-Dollar index) trading 0.25% lower.
► Asian markets delivered mixed results on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended a five-day rally, dropping 2% as a stronger JPY, now trading around 146 / USD, weighed on domestic equities. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will address parliament on August 23 regarding the recent interest rate hike, which has significantly impacted global markets. Markets expect Ueda to defend the BoJ' recent change in strategy. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite rose by 0.49%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.8%, continuing its positive streak. Throughout the week, central bank meetings across the region are expected to signal policy easing (exception Japan of course). Stronger Asian currencies and improved risk sentiment are likely to accelerate rate cuts across the region.
► Oil prices declined for the fourth time in five sessions as traders monitored US-led efforts to secure a cease-fire in Gaza, alongside escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. WTI Crude oil dropped to $75/barrel (spot price; $76.1 Sep'24). Gold still hovers near all-time high levels - slightly above $2,500/oz - supported by hopes that the Federal Reserve might be nearing a shift towards cutting rates.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
*No significant economic events today*
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
🌙 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 🇺🇸
☀️ Estee Lauder (EL) 🇺🇸
(...a few more with market cap <$10B)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
Overview last 30 trading days:
✅ Performance: 09.07 - 09.08 (26 trading days)
120 / 144 = = 83.3% Success Rate 📈
(July 8 - 6/8 = 75% SR dropped out)
✅ 12.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18641.30 | or clsd @: 18660 - 18675)
✅ 12.8 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (SL - 97.513)
✅ 12.8 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 39488.70)
✅ 12.8 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 18553.10)
✅ 12.8 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 17703.60)
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 13.8 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2470.39 f. me|or SL - 2470.49)
❌ 13.8 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 17887.60)
✅ 13.8 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2472.94 f. me| clsd 2477+ )
✅ 13.8 - LLY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 914.97 or 925.43+ )
✅ 13.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 18997.70)
4/5 = 80% Success Rate
❌ 14.8 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2457.78| or SL - 2466.23)
✅ 14.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19026.30)
✅ 14.8 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 159.87 f. me | or clsd @: 160.00+)
✅ 14.8 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 59147.90)
✅ 14.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19112.70)
4/5 = 80% Success Rate
We are now in our “5-week” period (09.07 - 09.08) again at a success rate of over 83% - which is really outstanding - especially in short-term trading and considering our wide asset selection. Anything above 75% is considered exceptionally good in short-term trading. Every additional percentage point above that is a hard to achieve improvement - especially when you look at a period of almost 150 trades and the average percentage movement (in our favor) per asset, which for us is over 0.6%.
It's really hard to describe what we (collectively!) achieve here, but WE probably trade better than anyone else in the short term. Congratulations on this performance and another excellent week.
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BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► We saw Wall Street exactly as we expected - with stocks trending sideways but overall positive market sentiment. Investors were looking for more guidance at the end of a strong week for Wall Street - the strongest since November 2023 - but got nothing more than mixed data today (weak US housing market data, but positive US economic data).
► We also saw positive Friday sessions in Asia and Europe. We see continued rate cut expectations - visible in some recurring USD weakness and of course the gold bulls finally successfully pushing gold above $2,500 (now actually really above - after gold first tested $2,500 - everything again exactly as we expected).
► Monday will be a very quiet session in terms of economic data (almost empty calendar) and little from the earnings report side. Estee Lauder could disappoint with sales in Asia - possibly - but nothing that will throw the market off track. We expect earnings to continue. We see a very solid looking Wall Street an hour before regular US trading this week - that creates confidence.
► So we can stay LONG and find a solid entry point into the Nasdaq at around 19500* (19500 - 19515) - where we also closed our LONG position from today - still almost 100 points below pre-market highs.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 5 - 7 (500% - 700%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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We are now seeing a sideways market, which is likely to stay that way for most of the day as there is no more important economic data due.
After a six-day rally, we are now seeing Wall Street wavering and recent gains (which were also very strong yesterday) consolidating. Even with markets currently slightly lower S&P 500 (- 0.15 %); Nasdaq 100 (- 0.3 %), we still see the strongest single-week performance since November 2023 (for the three US major indices).
Key economic data came out as “Goldilocks” data - while certainly encouraging risk appetite and especially offsetting losses on recession worries - any data slightly at odds with this near perfect view of the US economy will lead to short term selling (like today's poor US housing market data). This is where it is important not to overreact.
Ahead of next week's Jackson Hole symposium, the focus will now be very much on the Fed. There is some risk as I doubt Powell will announce a rate cut for September which would indicate a potential 50 basis point rate cut. The market is currently split, but now the majority expect a rate cut of (only) 25 basis points next month. I am absolutely in the 25 basis points camp here.
We are now waiting for good entry opportunities, but will probably mainly see sideways movement with low trading volumes overall.
I'm very pleased with how we've traded this today / or the last few weeks - also here with our USD/JPY LONG - congrats!
🔰 LIGHTNING-UPDATE SIGNAL 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 19498.90
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2488.61
TP ✅ @: 2483.67 (or wider)
We have set the perfect TP for our Nasdaq 100 and now see a slight technical resistance at 19500. We can slighty extend our TP (gold) or set an even wider TP. We are seeing exactly the calming of the market that we expected (the market panicked instead).
Congratulations - a phenomenal prediction / positioning / SL & TP setting.
⏱ Update DELAYED by: 5+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ Increased volatility; trading at all-time high
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
🔹 Nasdaq (- 0.4%) lost a small part of yesterday's strong gains and saw some additional selling after worse than expected US housing data. For the Nasdaq in particular, Applied Materials' disappointing guidance weighed on AI-related stocks. Ahead of today's US building permits/housing data, we have seen “Goldilocks = perfect” data - which is the reason we are seeing a healthy correction at the moment.
🔹 Bank of America (- 0.2%) opens almost unchanged - as we are also LONG in Goldman Sachs (in case you made that last minute trade), we are working with a tight TP here ✅ @: 39.33 - we could also work with a wider SL/TP as I see the banking giant bullish in the coming sessions and with plenty of room for a recovery.
🔹 Costco (- 0.2 %) opens slightly lower and currently remains break-even/slightly in profit for us. We are now setting a tight TP as the risk of profit-taking increases in the second half of today's US Friday session. TP ✅ @: 876.57
🔹 Goldman Sachs (0.0%) closed unchanged yesterday and opens unchanged today - lagging Wall Street's strong gains yesterday. We'll see GS try to get back to $500 for now first, but we see caution now and ahead of sentiment data in general. We can close slightly in profit as we could find a better entry point anyways: TP ✅ @: 499.97.
► We are taking a more cautious stance - although we expect further gains in the coming week after this week's overall very positive US economic data (the exception to the otherwise strong US economic data has now been the US housing data - but this is no real surprise given the high mortgage rates and construction costs).
► Gold's rose to a new record high (VIP ONLY) shows that investors continue to expect uncertainty - but also that the Fed remains on track to ease monetary policy. Gold benefited from a short-term drop in yields and the loss of some of the USD's strong gains from yesterday. We (VIP ONLY) ...
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
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BUY NOW 🔼 USD/JPY
► The USD/JPY rose 1.4% yesterday - a very strong move driven mainly by the USD after US economic data pointed to a robust economy - including robust consumer spending and a robust US labor market. Yesterday's better-than-expected US economic data also reduced expectations of a large Fed rate cut in September, pointing instead to gradual Fed easing.
► Concerns about a recession in the US and persistent disinflation have raised expectations that the Fed will have to hurry up with rate cuts, also to support the US labor market and prevent the US economy from sliding into recession. These expectations have also weighed on the USD and supported the classic safe-haven currencies such as the CHF and JPY, with the JPY benefiting more from the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
► We now see the pair giving back more than half of yesterday's gains also pushed lower following weak US housing data - with the USD/JPY down nearly 1% (update) today. We buy the pair's sharp dip here and see support around 147.700 and in particular towards 147.500.
► The carry trade will make a small comeback. In the carry trade, investors/or especially hedge funds borrow Japanese yen at low interest rates and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. This strategy has been very popular in recent years as investors assumed that the Japanese yen would remain cheap and Japanese interest rates would remain low.
► The Nikkei 225 rose 3.75% today, supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan will not aggressively raise interest rates. This market reaction will make it more difficult for the BoJ to push ahead with normalization too quickly - otherwise it will be punished.
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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———
💵📈📈📉🎯📈
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BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► We see near flat Wall Street futures two hours before the open, with the Nasdaq falling back to (below) 19500 and the Dow Jones even trading slightly below yesterday's “close” (- 0.15%). We buy the mini dip here (currently below 19450) or more than 150 points below the pre-market highs. We see a slight headwind from a disappointing earnings report from Applied Materials. The semiconductor equipment maker dampened optimism in the AI/chip sector after disappointing guidance.
► However, there is very little else that could topple the current positive market sentiment. We could see weakness in the US housing market (including building permits) and possibly some headwinds from consumer sentiment data, but the US macroeconomic data we have seen this week has been near perfect (“Goldilocks” data). Moreover, important US sentiment data will not be released until after the NYSE opens (Michigan Consumer Sentiment 14:00 UTC+0).
► In addition, we saw significant gains in Asia today, especially in Japan, but the Chinese markets also ended Friday's session in positive territory. Alibaba and JD are both trading significantly higher (also in New York as ADRs) after reporting slow growth - but not as bad as feared. Europe is also trading higher and overall there is little to stop the return of optimism. Retail sales in the UK recovered significantly (to +0.5% month-on-month after -0.9% in June).
► We see yields trimming yesterday's gains, as does the USD, after yesterday's very strong reaction to the robust retail sales and labor market data. This is an additional support for growth stocks.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 5 - 7 (500% - 700%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 60+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
We get a good entry into the Nasdaq near 19430 📉📈
✔️ 6+ non-delayed signals/day based on fundamental analysis
✔️ Full transparency (fully transparency also in our TRIAL channel)
✔️ REAL success rate of 82+ % in the last 48+ months
✔️ Account manager by your side every step of the way
✔️ Access to our community - connect with other members
✔️ You can start completely FREE of charge
WRITE US AND BECOME VIP MEMBER FOR FREE 👤➕
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 19648.70
Our Nasdaq 100 has hit the TP this time - at ~19650 - where we now see slight resistance.
——
✅ 13.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 14.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 14.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 15.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 15.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 15.8 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 15.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 15.8 - US30 - LONG ↗️
✅ 16.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 16.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 19.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️
✅ 19.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP hit 📸)
We have now won 12 index trades in a row 🎯
12/12 = 100% success rate
(or for example 39 out of our last 43 = 90.7%)
——
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⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
► We actually indeed saw some technical selling, with the Nasdaq 100 again testing the 19600. Our SL (19553.70) was triggered.
► We remain LONG in the Nasdaq and can re-enter at 19550/near our SL. If you are still LONG, you can stay LONG.
► We expect another attempt to break through 19600 - and expect the Nasdaq 100 to be successful later today.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 5 - 7 (500% - 700%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 25+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
——-
📈1️⃣9️⃣6️⃣0️⃣0️⃣➕
Very important: Non-Delayed Signals.
You can get them in the VIP Channel and much more:
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🖥 VT Markets (🇬🇧🇳🇿🇪🇺🌍)
💻 Vantage (🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍) <- NEW
🖥 PU Prime (🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🌍)
🖥 Libertex (🇪🇺🌍)
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 126.79
TP ✅ @: 127.89
another one...
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 126.37
TP ✅ @: 127.49
We move our SL more than $1.5 higher (from 124.77). Nvidia is by far the strongest gainer in New York (by market capitalization) and is now trading more than 2% higher. We see chipmaker stocks, which are leading the losses in the Nasdaq, pare their heavy losses and Wall Street as a whole (and the Nasdaq 100 in particular) continue to rise. We are raising our TP slightly.
Congratulations - we see Nvidia outperforming the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq 100 outperforming the S&P 500/Dow Jones - just as we predicted.
🔰 UPDATE SIGNAL 🕯
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 124.42
TP ✅ @: 127.33
We found a very good entry price for Nvidia (most of you even better than me). We now secure profits. Nvidia has significantly more upside - but we see mixed performance in the chip sector, with Broadcom, Micron and Lam Research posting the biggest losses among the top 30 (by weight/market capitalization) Nasdaq 100 components and AMD the biggest gainer (benefiting from the acquisition of server maker ZT Systems).
Congratulations - beautiful NYSE opening trade.
We tighten the SL to 124.77 when Nvidia breaks the 126.00.
———
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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
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BUY AFTER* NYSE OPENED 🔼 Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
⚠️ High Volatility
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
🔹 Nasdaq (+0.1%) opened slightly higher, as did the other Wall Street indices. The session was also positive in China/Hong Kong and European equities, and last week's gains were extended. We set our TP closer to 19600 - TP ✅ @: 19593.40. Our SL could be triggered on increased volatility at the NYSE open. We can find a better re-entry.
🔹 Costco (+0.25%) opens slightly higher but continues to trade in a tight range. We keep our tight TP at ✅ @: 875.47 for now.
► We continue to see the risk sentiment as positive and the recovery in the tech-heavy Nasdaq continuing (and also stronger than in the S&P 500 or the more defensive Dow Jones). We remain LONG, have secured our most recent position and will continue to buy upcoming dips. The US economic growth fears of early August have proved short-lived and the previous market leaders still have scope for a recovery.
► Nvidia has led this recovery and is already up ~40% since the August lows. As the recovery in large technology companies continues, Nvidia will likely continue to lead the way and outperform the Nasdaq 100. We continue to see very bullish investment banks continuing to recommend to BUY Nvidia - today investment powerhouse Goldman Sachs reiterates its “BUY” rating on Nvidia.
► We see a flat/slightly negative opening for Nvidia and can buy in the $123.60 - $124.30 range. Nvidia's strong recovery to new August highs made headlines in all financial news, which is also reigniting FOMO buying from retail investors. Nvidia will remain volatile, but will move into the $130 - $135 range in the short term.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 400 - 430 (40,000% - 43,000%) when trading the Nvidia (NVDA).
⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel
———
✔️ 6+ non-delayed signals/day based on fundamental analysis
✔️ Full transparency (fully transparency also in our TRIAL channel)
✔️ REAL success rate of 82+ % in the last 48+ months
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SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/USD
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
► We are buying USD weakness - with the USD falling to a more than seven-month low in early Asian trading as markets are still optimistic that the Fed will give clear signals for a rate cut later this week. However, the overall very positive picture of the US economy last week (albeit with continued disinflation), shows that recession fears in the US are overdone. In particular, strong retail sales in the US point to a robust US economy that does not need rapid interest rate cuts by the Fed. Expectations of rate cuts have fallen, with swap markets now pricing in rate cuts of just over 25 basis points in September and rate cuts of less than 100 basis points by 2024. Lower expectations of rate cuts will limit the headwind for the USD.
►The EUR has benefited from signs of a recovering economy in the Eurozone, most of which is recording slight growth again (with the exception of Germany). ZEW economic expectations have fallen dramatically in Germany and also more sharply than expected in the eurozone as a whole. However, GDP in the Eurozone confirmed modest growth of 0.3 %.
►The USD is also facing headwinds from falling yields and is gradually losing its status as a safe haven. This current process is moving a little too fast and it is also more likely that the Bank of Japan will slow down its tightening process so as not to put too much pressure on the export-oriented Japanese economy.
► We sell the rise in EUR/USD near/slightly above 1.10400 and see that the ECB is still under more pressure to support the Eurozone economy - with inflation in many regions already close to/at the ECB's target level. We see technical resistance at 1.10500. We are looking to take ~45 pips profit on the pair and set our TP at 1.09931.
► The USD/JPY fell sharply overnight on fears that the Bank of Japan will defend its recent hawkish stance. I continue to expect a weaker JPY as the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to hike quickly and is certainly trying to reduce shocks to Japanese and global markets. If you are still LONG in USD/JPY, please set your SL 🔑 to 145.867, if this is breached (again) we may see some temporary JPY strength first before Ueda makes his statement on August 23. It is still likely that the USD/JPY will head back towards 150 in upcoming sessions.
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✅ 15.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (most of you TP - 19198.70| f. me SL - 19064.30)
✅ 15.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19289.90)
✅ 15.8 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 40572.40)
✴️ 15.8 - COST - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 875.47 🔄
✅ 15.8 - BAC - LONG ↗️ (TP - 39.37) 🔄📸
✅ 15.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19388.90)
✅ 15.8 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 40623.40 f. me| SL - 40544.40)
✅ 15.8 - GS - LONG ↗️ (TP - 499.97) 🔄📸
7/8 - (1 open positions)
TODAY :
✅ 16.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19498.90|+Re-Entry) 📸
✴️ 16.8 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 16.8 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2483.67 |2485.57 or lower) 📸
✴️ 16.8 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
2/4 - (2 open positions)
We closed our financial positions from yesterday at a profit - although more profit was possible (especially with Goldman Sachs) - but it is ok to have closed here as we will probably find similar or even better entry prices again. If you are still LONG in BAC (or Goldman Sachs) - we expect further gains next week.
We have seen a lot of sideways movement, some mixed markets and also some consolidation. It's impressive that we made a nice gold SHORT trade on the day gold hit a new ATH.
We made another nice Nasdaq trade (and found the perfect re-entry after the weak US housing data + set a very good TP).
Everything points to further gains in the coming week - even if some less dovish comments during the Jackson Hole Symposium could lead to some short term profit taking.
Congratulations 👏 - another very, very good week is in the books. As always, share some of your profits with people in need (when possible) and I'd love to hear from you in our DISCORD COMMUNITY 💬 (7 tickets left)
Your Rob
Bank of America (BAC) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 39.37
Bank of America has now also reached our TP (Goldman Sachs closed earlier today - now even back at $504 - as we predicted yesterday). If you are still LONG in Bank of America, you can stay LONG longer (we still see the bank bullish) or close slightly better than 39.37 (e.g. 39.39 - 39.46 - if you still want to close today).
We wanted to get into BAC yesterday in the 39.10 - 39.30 range - I got in a bit earlier - your positions are thus a bit more in profit.
Our Costco position is still break-even / or slightly in profit. We can stay LONG - I'm tightening my TP a bit ✅ @: 875.47 - you can also leave it further - we continue to see some upside for Costco after the very strong US retail sales and Walmart's very strong Q2 earnings report.
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📊 SmartTrader Premium Insights: Analyst Rating Updates
📆 Friday, August 16
🟢 Positive Ratings:
Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Mizuho reiterates as ”OUTPERFORM”
Applied Materials (AMAT) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as ”BUY”
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”OVERWEIGHT”
Previously: "EQUAL WEIGHT"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ⤴️ $(VIP ONLY)
Cisco (CSCO) 🇺🇸🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: HSBC upgrades to ”BUY”
Previously: "HOLD"
Price Target: $46 ⤴️ $58
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🔴⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”OVERWEIGHT”
Previously: "UNDERWEIGHT"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ⤴️ $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”STRONG BUY”
Previously: "MARKET PERFORM"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) reiterates as ”BUY”
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”OVERWEIGHT”
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY) ⤴️ $(VIP ONLY)
Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: BMO reiterates as ”TOP PICK”
Netflix (NFLX) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: BMO reiterates as ”OUTPERFORM”
Nike (NKE) 🇺🇸🔴⤴️🟢
Analyst: Williams Trading upgrades to ”BUY”
Previously: "SELL"
Price Target: $67 ⤴️ $93
Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Jefferies reiterates as ”BUY”
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) adds a "TACTICAL UNDERPERFORM"
Salesforce (CRM) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as ”BUY”
Price Target: $288 ⤴️ $316
(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸🟡⤴️🟢
Analyst: (VIP ONLY) upgrades to ”OVERWEIGHT”
Previously: "NEUTRAL"
Price Target: $(VIP ONLY)
Walmart (WMT) 🇺🇸🟢
Analyst: Morgan Stanley reiterates as ”BUY”
Price Target: $75 ⤴️ $82
🟡 Neutral Ratings:
Estee Lauder (EL) 🇺🇸🟢⤵️🟡
Analyst: Bank of America downgrades to ”NEUTRAL”
Previously: "BUY"
Price Target: $140 ⤵️ $100
Snowflake (SNOW) 🇺🇸🟡
Analyst: Bank of America reiterates as ”NEUTRAL”
Price Target: $200 ⤵️ $160
🔴 Negative Ratings:
Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸🔴
Analyst: Bernstein reiterates as ”UNDERPERFORM”
Price Target (or target price): When an analyst sets a price target for a stock, he or she is trying to determine what the stock is worth and where the price will be in ~12 months. Ultimately, price targets depend on the valuation of the company issuing the stock. Analysts base their price targets usually on earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. Price targets (especially average price targets) can be used to value stocks and may even be more useful than a stock analyst's rating.
🟢 = positive rating
🟡 = neutral rating
🔴 = negative rating
⤴️ = upgrade
⤵️ = downgrade
You can find the Analyst Rating Updates also on the Website:
Click HERE 🔗
💬 As a subscriber / member - you can also comment there and exchange information with other community members!
SmartTrader™ Analyst team
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 19498.90
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP triggered ✅ @: 2483.67 (or at 2485.57 or closed lower)
We don't need easy markets. Congratulations - excellent sentiment/fundamental trading today.
We now see some resistance for the Nasdaq 100 at 19500 and market sentiment remains positive. The important (preliminary) market sentiment data from the University of Michigan was also positive and shows a robust US economy.
The market panicked over the poor housing data - a good example of why technical analysis (don't look too much at the chart please!) does NOT work (alone) - it would have been a recipe for complete disaster today.
However, our timing - especially the re-entry into the Nasdaq and the TP - is almost too perfect, we can't always expect that. Congratulations again 👏!
🔰 LIGHTNING-UPDATE SIGNAL 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19393.30
TP ✅ @: 19498.90
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: In-Profit SL - depending on your entry
TP ✅ @: 2485.57
Overall, our position in the Nasdaq 100 is (well) in profit. We are tightening our SL.
Our gold position is also well in the money. Gold continues to encounter resistance/then also short-term profit taking at key levels (in this case $2,500). We set a tight TP and you can set an SL in profit (depending on your entry). We close a little earlier as gold has tested $2,500 (and may yet break it)
Congratulations - we kept our cool in this very tricky / volatile market!
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🔰
Bank of America (BAC) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 38.86 (corrected)
TP ✅ @: 39.37 (corrected)
Goldman Sachs (GS) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 501 - 502.50
Goldman Sachs already closed at $500 for me (TP - 499.97) - if you are still in - you can close slightly better - but I see the potential for a better entry - that's why I would still close here now 501 - 502.50. We can slightly widen our TP for our BAC position as we are now not double LONG in financials anymore.
We have seen very weak US building permit/housing data, which without this week's positive economic data would certainly paint a much gloomier picture of the US economy. The housing sector is of course being hit harder by high interest rates/mortgage rates. We are now seeing a temporary deterioration in risk sentiment as well as a weaker USD - not a big move, but important to put into context. The impact on the USD is likely to be very short-lived.
We can take advantage of the current slight further dip - which could intensify somewhat before the NYSE opens - to improve our entry into the Nasdaq.
🔰 UPDATE SIGNAL 🕯
STAY LONG / BUY NOW 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19308.30
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
► We have seen that the Nasdaq 100 has now fallen below 19370 - possibly even a little lower before attracting buyers again. We are also seeing some selling in artificial intelligence related stocks after Applied Materials' weak guidance.
► We see a healthy correction after yesterday's strong gains. We can set an SL and a TP (slightly in profit / almost break-even) here.
⏱ Update DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, August 16
❗️ Global equities rise after strong US retail sales boost economic optimism and ease recession fears
► European stocks gained traction, with the Stoxx 600 Index rising 0.4%, pointing towards the best week since May. Bayer shares surged over 7% after a significant legal victory in the long-standing Roundup cancer litigation. Economic optimism was bolstered by UK retail sales data, which showed a 0.5% increase in July, reversing the previous month's decline and coming in-line with expectations. Investors are cautiously optimistic, with the recent US data reducing fears of an imminent recession.
► US equity futures point to further modest gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both on track for their largest weekly advances since November. Retail sales and jobless claims data have furthered strengthened investor confidence, supporting the narrative of a "Goldilocks" economy characterized by controlled inflation and still ongoing growth. The Federal Reserve's upcoming September rate decision remains in focus, with traders scaling back expectations of a large rate cut.
► Asian markets experienced robust gains, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 3.75% (!), heading for its best week in over four years. The weaker JPY, which fell past 149 per USD, has boosted exporter sentiment. Chinese markets rose for a second consecutive session, supported by expectations of new policies from the central bank aimed at stimulating economic growth. Other markets in the region, including Hong Kong, India and Australia, also posted significant gains as they followed the gains on Wall Street, as expected by our chief analyst yesterday.
► In the commodities sector, oil prices edged higher to around $76/barrel (spot price; $77.1 Sept'24) but remains pressured by the prospect of a Middle East cease-fire and a lukewarm demand outlook from China. Conversely, gold was on track for a small weekly gain, trading slightly above $2,460/oz despite a stronger USD. Gold continues to benefit from market uncertainty and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance in the coming months given positive inflation data.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇬🇧 Retail Sales - 06:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇪🇺 Balance of Trade - 09:00 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇺🇸 Building Permits / Housing Starts - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - 14:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
*no major earnings reports today*
(...some with market capitalization <$15 billion)
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner