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18 Sep 2024 20:46

⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2591.56
TP ✅ @: 2585.16

Gold reacted immediately when Powell said that the risk of a weakening labor market and inflation is balanced - which tells me (and apparently the markets) that the focus has not quite shifted to supporting the labor market.

We are now setting a profitable SL and a TP that is not too wide.

Congratulations - this is phenomenal trading. We made a lot of money now - even though we expected a 25 basis point rate cut. Incredible gold trading here.

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——-

TP already hit (this update is delayed)

You can close now even better (below $2,580)

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18 Sep 2024 20:32

📺 Watch Fed Press Conference (Powell) LIVE

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18 Sep 2024 20:10

50-bps!

⚡️ LIVE TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY (!!!) IN VIP

► We are seeing less of a reaction than I would have expected - which shows how strongly the 50 basis point interest rate cut was already priced into gold. We can therefore also find an entry point well below $2,580 (almost unchanged near / below $2,575). We expect gold to reach a new ATH now or soon.

► Powell will probably make a rather hawkish statement at the press conference - and say that the Fed has now brought forward (like front-loading) the rate cut a little and is now waiting to see what future data will show.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

position code / 100% Transparenz - 24091805A

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY (!!!) IN VIP


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——-

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18 Sep 2024 19:09

This post was earlier made on our SmartTrader IG account - follow us SmartTrader Instagram Channel 📱

Prices have only changed slightly since then - we see the markets in a wait-and-see but cautious stance, which also led to yields rising again after the recent sharp fall, the USD stabilizing and Wall Street falling back to yesterday's lows (now recovered somewhat).

This overview gives you an idea of how the individual assets will react immediately (!) to a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points. Note, however, that this is ONLY the immediate reaction as the market will be paying very close attention to how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explains the Fed's decision (in the Fed press conference - 30 minutes after the decision) and, more importantly, what outlook he gives in terms of upcoming rate cuts.

The market is overly fixated on 25bp versus 50bp here, but if the Fed “only” cuts rates by 25bp, the market will also have to reassess expectations for total rate cuts in 2024 - currently, rate cuts of more than 110bp are expected in 2024 - which is unlikely if the Fed starts with 25bp today.

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18 Sep 2024 18:03

What a trade - congratulations again!


...If you missed this trade - make sure it never happens again 🛑

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18 Sep 2024 17:43

⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► Our TP has just been triggered in a short dip. We now see the Nasdaq 100 back at 19465+ and re-entering (range 19460 - 19490). We continue to expect resistance towards 19500.

► We remain SHORT. The market is setting many traps for traders here - a typical day where the normal trader makes big losses - but we remain 100% concentrated and focused on data as always.

► We also see that yields continue to rise (now already by 5 basis points), which also brings the DXY back into flat territory (= USD strengthens).

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4.5- 6.5 (450% - 650%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100)

position code / 100% transparency - 24091803A

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18 Sep 2024 16:11

⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 19430.20

Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2580.56
TP ✅ @: 2568.21
OR
CLOSE SOON ✅ @: 2568.50 - 2570.50

A difficult market, as it probably positions traders (especially technical traders) exactly the wrong way round. However, we now see that the market is following our expectations - albeit still with resistance. If the Nasdaq falls (touches) below 19446 again set your SL in-profit. We also see resistance at 19500 (as we expected).

Our gold position is/was close to our TP. We can slightly extend the TP for our Nasdaq 100 SHORT. Volatility (obvious uncertainty) will lead to further profit taking. We are tightening the TP for gold by 50 cents.

We also see yields rising a little - as we expected - putting pressure both on growth stocks but also on gold.


——-

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18 Sep 2024 15:00

⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
EUR/USD
SL 🔑 @: 1.11468
TP ✅ @: 1.11133

Gold 🥇 (XAU/USD)
SL 🔑 @: 2583.27
TP ✅ @: 2567.68

We are updating our EUR/USD and gold positions. We want to reduce our risk that the USD will NOT strengthen temporarily for now, but still see this happening in view of the Fed's interest rate decision later today. Investors will become more nervous that the Fed might not cut rates by 50 basis points as (currently) expected.

Our EUR/USD is slightly in the money, while gold is currently slightly out of the money.

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18 Sep 2024 12:36

First and foremost, what we are currently seeing is a failure of communication on the part of the Fed. It should not allow the whole market to speculate so wildly about whether there will be a cut of 25 or 50 basis points. While the Fed believes that the difference is actually marginal, especially when it explains its moves in detail, the markets are fully focused on this one decision. It would have been easy for an official voice from the Fed to guide the markets somewhat in their uncertainty.

Instead, the Fed is allowing the market to speculate wildly, which now means that the market will react strongly, regardless of whether it is 25 or 50 bp, including high volatility - which cannot be in the Fed's interest.

It is somewhat surprising that the market is so convinced of a 50-bp rate cut. Last week, expectations fell to almost 10% (!) after the CPI data. It was mainly the voices of analysts, investment banks and in particular the former president of the New York Federal Reserve, Bill Dudley, that turned the market in the direction of 50 bp. Dudley said that there is a strong case for cutting rates by 50 basis points and that the Fed should do so and that rapid rate cuts are necessary to prevent a possible recession and to bring monetary policy in line with the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment.

The FOMC of course sees the increased expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut - and may even be somewhat influenced by it. The Fed could also play a role in the upcoming election - a more decisive rate cut could give Vice President Kamala Harris some tailwinds as Wall Street remains near record highs - although it's not even guaranteed that a quick rate cut is even positive in the medium term after the arguably initial positive reaction - as it shows that there is apparently some weakness in the US economy (more than data would suggest).

What do you think?

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18 Sep 2024 11:43

📊 SmartTrader Insights: Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒

📆 Wednesday, September 18

❗️ European stocks lower with global investors staying cautious ahead of Fed interest rate decision

► European stocks showed little movement as traders remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later today but followed losses in the US (already in after-hours trading). The Stoxx 600 edged lower by 0.35%, with Aperol maker Davide Campari falling more than 6.5% after its CEO's unexpected resignation. UK inflation remained steady at 2.2% in August, causing the GBP to strengthen as money markets adjusted their outlook on Bank of England’s easing trajectory. The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. Final Eurozone inflation data (2.2% YoY) confirmed Preliminary data.

► US stock futures traded little changed as markets priced in a 62% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve (according to CME FedWatch tool). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are slightly up (~ +0.1%), reflecting a wait-and-see mood as traders are making no major bets before the Fed rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and new economic projections.

► Our chief analyst sees two possible scenarios: The first (which he gives a 70% probability) is a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points, with a more dovish outlook signaling further rate cuts at the next rate decisions, including up to 50 basis points if economic conditions, particularly in the labor market, weaken significantly. The second scenario, which in reality is not significantly different (but would elicit a very different initial reaction), would be a more hawkish rate cut of 50 basis points. In this case, Fed Chair Jerome Powell would call this “frontloading” and communicate that the Fed will remain data dependent and that markets should expect smaller rate cuts from now on, possibly a pause if inflation shows signs of re-acceleration - Robert Lindner gives this scenario a 29% probability - and only a 1% probability of what the market expects, a 50 basis point rate cut and a confirmation of the expectation of further rapid rate cuts in the coming months - although this could become a reality (that the Fed ends up cutting rates really quickly), it is highly unlikely that Powell wants to take the risk of markets reacting too positively, which would lead to hot markets and increase the risk of inflation flaring up again.

► Asian stocks were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei slightly higher, despite a 0.8% rebound in the JPY as traders anticipated policy convergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Japan's economic data showed that exports rose less than expected in August, while imports increased at the slowest pace in five months. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady on Friday but may signal potential future hikes. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks ticked up modestly after a breakthrough in homegrown chip-making technology (as an alternative to Nvidia). However, mainland markets remained cautious as traders continued to anticipate further economic stimulus from the Chinese government.

► Oil prices turned lower to $68.7/barrel (spot price), as rising US stockpiles and easing Middle East tensions offset concerns over supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, gold prices remained steady at slightly below $2,570/oz, reflecting the cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

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17 Sep 2024 23:31

Overview last 30 trading days:

✅ Performance: 07.08 - 10.09 (26 trading days)

122 / 138 = 88.4% ❗️ Success Rate 📈

(August 6 - 3/3 = 100% 🏆 SR dropped out)

✅ 11.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 18819.90 f. me | or TP - 18823.30)
✅ 11.9 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 66.155 | or TP - 65.515)
✅ 11.9 - JPM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 206.39)
✅ 11.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 40578.90)
✅ 11.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2515.63 f. me| or clsd 2515+)
✅ 11.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2516.07)

6/6 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate

❌ 12.9 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (SL -70.311) 🔄
✅ 12.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2522.49 f. me|or TP - 2522.97 - 2529.00)
❌ 12.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 1.10926) *for me open
✅ 12.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 119.97)
❌ 12.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 2567.56)

2/5 = 40% Success Rate

✅ 13.9 - EUR/GBP - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 0.84381)
✅ 13.9 - NFLX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 687.69)
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19492.30)
✅ 13.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 19539.40) 🔄

4/4 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate


Ongoing supply disruptions (due to the impact of Hurricane Francine on the infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico) combined with interest rate cut optimism drove oil prices up temporarily today - also boosted by signs of a still strong US economy, which meant that we had a success rate of under ☠️ 50% in one day for the first time since July 18. In the end, of course, we were also incredibly unlucky as we missed our TP yesterday by 1 (!) cent - but at the same time we could have closed earlier.

On a positive note, our Nasdaq 100 LONG from Friday hit our TP today after yesterday's underperformance, which led to another 100% 🏆 day.

We currently continue to have an over 88% success rate 📸 in our five-week period, but September 12 will weigh heavily in the coming weeks as it slips into the five-week period soon.

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17 Sep 2024 20:14

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Dow Jones (US30)  🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 41653.40 (10 points tighter than on 📸)
TP ✅ @: 41743.40
(sorry SL / TP were mixed up)

We see some resistance at 41700. We set a tight SL. If the 41700 level can be broken - we may see a stronger rebound from earlier losses following a new ATH reached today post strong US retail sales data.

Congratulations - a very tough trade in a very tough / cautious market.

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17 Sep 2024 16:36

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19538.90
TP ✅ @: 19623.30

We continue to see the market moving sideways. Finding good entries is now the key - and we are doing this very well again today.

We are setting another in-profit SL. If it is triggered, we may be able to find a better re-entry. However, we could also see a more nervous market - as there is still uncertainty about the rate cut level - the Fed should have provided more clarity here and risks a disappointment or even a shock reaction tomorrow.

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17 Sep 2024 15:59

🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯

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BUY WHEN* NYSE OPENS 🔼 Walmart (WMT) 🇺🇸

We see stocks continuing to rise (the Dow Jones has hit a new ATH) after a surprise (for analysts - not for us) rise in US retail sales boosted expectations of a strong US economy, which will receive an additional tailwind from the Fed, which will start cutting interest rates tomorrow.

🔹 The Nasdaq 100 (+0.7%) is outperforming the other Wall Street indices and earlier led to our Nasdaq 100 LONG from Friday closing in profit. Our new LONG position is currently ~25+ points in profit. We can set a TP here ✅ @: 19633.40. Please set an in-profit SL once the Nasdaq 100 reaches 19590.

🔹 Apple (- 0.1%) opens flat and lags other tech stocks (and big tech), although they are generally considered more defensive. We have a tight in-profit SL that may trigger. We also hold our TP ✅ @: 218.43.

🔹 Intel (+3.6%) opens strong and will trigger our SL at the NYSE opening. The gains will be temporary and are based on Intel's announcement to convert its foundry business into a subsidiary. The Biden administration has also promised the company up to $3bn in subsidies under the Chips Act, while at the same time Intel will not pursue the construction of a factory in Magdeburg, although the German government has promised $11bn (€10bn) in subsidies (once again shows that Germany is not seen as an attractive manufacturing/business location 📉). Intel will be very volatile and sentiment-dependent and will probably see some profit-taking - we are staying out (for now).


► Positive retail sales are providing a tailwind for retailers, growth and cyclically sensitive stocks. We see that Amazon has already gained 1%, growth-sensitive Shopify even +2% (Costco +0.2%). All retailers seem to be opening well ... not all. Walmart is an underperformer and is currently trading almost 1% lower pre-market after a very strong recent performance and still trading near its all-time high. We see Walmart trading below yesterday's lows in pre-market trading (currently at 79.75). We are positioning us LONG near that price after the NYSE opening (79.60 - 79.85*) and continue to see Walmart very well positioned, pushing back towards 80.50 and also well managed including impressive e-commerce growth and growth in Walmart+ membership - which saw record membership growth in August - in part due to a partnership with Burger King.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 620 - 660 (62,000% - 66,000%) trading with Walmart (WMT).

position code / 100% transparency - 24091704A

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———

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17 Sep 2024 14:56

⚡️ LIVE TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

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► US retail sales are better than expected (month-on-month) - positive news for the market, but somewhat diminishing expectations of a big Fed rate cut (hence the small dip in the gold price and stronger USD) - so we are seeing a mixed reaction at the moment. A look at retail sales (ex-autos) shows (VIP ONLY) and (VIP ONLY) (despite disinflation, which is a headwind for retail sales in general) (VIP ONLY) consumption supported with increased debt (we see higher delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans recently, for example).

► Most importantly, analysts had expected (VIP ONLY) ...

► Year-on-year retail sales were slightly below expectations at 2.1% (vs. 2.2% expected).

► We can go (VIP ONLY) on the Nasdaq near (VIP ONLY)* (VIP ONLY) and expect (VIP ONLY)

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4.5- 6.5 (450% - 650%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100)

position code / 100% transparency - 24091702A

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18 Sep 2024 20:43

We are seeing a surprisingly mild reaction to the actual decision.

The market here is waiting for comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (so is now back in wait-and-see). The Fed has made it clear that it wants to defend the US economy - which has actually proven to still be very robust. It's hard to say whether the Fed wasn't also acting somewhat politically here.

We will probably hear a rather hawkish Powell in the Fed's upcoming press conference.

📸 FOMC statement (changes) / blue what I consider particularly important


We are now seeing gold actually move to $2,600 (as I had originally expected). We have missed some even higher profits (but made a beautiful trade!). I expect some resistance here and since most of it was already priced in, we can temporarily go SHORT here near $2,600.



⚡️ LIVE TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY (!!!) IN VIP

► We are going SHORT, with yields relatively unaffected. Powell will reiterate that the Fed will remain cautious - especially to avoid reigniting inflation.

► We are going SHORT here in the $2,597 - $2,600 range.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

position code / 100% Transparenz - 24091806A

⏱ Signal / News DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-

2️⃣6️⃣0️⃣0️⃣📉

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18 Sep 2024 20:15

⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: 2587.97
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 2587 - 2590

Yields are very little changed - but gold hit indeed a new ATH.

We found a beautiful entry into gold - but close already now / or soon.

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18 Sep 2024 19:52

🚨 Fed Interest Rate Decision in 8 Minutes

LIVE TRADING SESSION -> in VIP Channel ⚡️

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⚠️ Please note that there will be a strong reaction to all assets (especially bonds (yields), USD and gold) immediately after the interest rate decision, as the market is divided on a 25 or 50 basis point cut. This division in expectations increases the effect of this historically important monetary policy shift even more.

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18 Sep 2024 18:39

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 19450.60
TP ✅ @: 19361.60

We are trading today's very tough market full of traps very well - made also an excellent re-entry into the Nasdaq 100 - but failed to close near 19350. We still see Wall Street with more profit taking towards the Fed rate decision (in 90 minutes).

We now set a tight SL and secure at least slight profits.


———-

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18 Sep 2024 18:01

⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Intel (INTC) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 21.16
TP ✅ @: 20.53

Congratulations - we made the best possible NYSE opening trade today (of all Nasdaq 100 components). Not only did Intel fall the second most of all Nasdaq 100 stocks - it also first gave saw the initial buying that we expected, and then reversed exactly in the range we expected.

It's also a reminder for us that you can do everything right, be well ahead of the markets - and still lose trades occasionally - some things are out of your control. Don't cry over a losing trade - let it be the past and continue to realize that every day, every hour, every minute gives you a chance to make a good / better / the right decision again. What we can do is to do our homework, analyze the data and trade the market in the right way and not on emotions.

We set an in-profit SL and a wide TP.

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18 Sep 2024 16:20

⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2577.57
TP ✅ @: 2567.36
OR
CLOSE SOON ✅ @: 2567.50 - 2569.50

If you are still SHORT in gold ... we expect yields to continue to rise for now, putting pressure on gold and helping the USD to recover. You can now go back to a wider TP as we see more downside from here.

But you can also close sooner (with a slight profit / break-even) - the important thing is - we are not closing at a loss here.

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18 Sep 2024 15:48

🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯

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SELL AFTER* NYSE OPENS 🔽 (VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
⚠️ (VIP ONLY)

🔹 The Nasdaq 100 (+0.15%) is little changed, hovering around the 15900 level. After yesterday's losses, we could see further slight gains initially, but investors will be cautious ahead of today's Fed rate decision - especially as the market has priced in a 50 basis point rate cut. I expect some volatility in early trading - you can set a TP ✅ @: 19433.60 at pre-market lows.

🔹 Walmart (- 0.2%) opens little changed after the retail giant fell yesterday. We limit possible losses SL 🔑 @: 78.07 and set a “break-even” TP ✅ @: 79.74.


► Markets expect the Fed to start the easing cycle with a 50bp rate cut (despite core inflation above 3% y/y and solid economic data including healthy consumer spending). I think a 25bp cut is more likely and that some investors are becoming increasingly nervous that the Fed will not move as quickly as hoped. We therefore believe that we will see increasing caution, which usually leads to profit taking ahead of the Fed rate decision (at 20:00 MEZ).

► We have now also seen solid housing data, with both building permits and housing starts coming in above expectations - further signs of a robust US economy - this is a positive sign but it would certainly be interesting to see why the market expects the Fed to start the rate cut cycle with an outsized cut? Earlier data today also showed a sharp rise in mortgage applications - another sign that US consumers remain optimistic about the medium-term outlook.

► We should have done it yesterday - but do it now. Sell the (VIP ONLY). (VIP ONLY) opens flat near (VIP ONLY) - we expect further profit taking after initial modest gains and remain very skeptical about (VIP ONLY). We SHORT in the (VIP ONLY)* range. (VIP ONLY) main advantage is being(VIP ONLY) US certainly does not want to (VIP ONLY) severe problems, declining revenues and is lagging the competition. I think (VIP ONLY) bull trap.

🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...

position code / 100% transparency - 24091802A

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 20+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
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——-

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18 Sep 2024 14:26

⚡️ FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

► The Nasdaq 100 is 0.2 % higher after yesterday's drop and is approaching the 19500 mark again (or has already tested it). Even if there is a little more upside potential here in the short term (and ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision this evening), I do not believe that a market characterized by uncertainty will buy boldly ahead of a highly uncertain interest rate decision.

► The strong recovery after the initial losses in September means that the market has already largely priced in rapid rate cuts anyway.

► Although the market is pricing in a larger rate cut of 50 basis points, I think it would be a surprise if the Fed were to make a larger rate cut now, as core inflation is still at 3.3 % and this would also be at odds with the still very solid economic activity.

► In reality, the decision of 25 to 50 basis points is even less important than the way the market is pricing it in, but I don't think the Fed wants to send the signal that the US economy needs strong support here. We have only seen two times in history that a 50 basis point cut marked the start of a monetary easing phase, and in both cases the US economy was in much worse shape and inflation was cooler (in January 2001 when the dotcom bubble burst, and in September 2007 when subprime mortgages collapsed and banks no longer trusted each other, leading to extremely low liquidity).

► Incidentally, we see yields rising slightly - which shows that some caution is returning to the bond market after they recently fell sharply in anticipation of rapid Fed rate cuts.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4.5- 6.5 (450% - 650%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100)

position code / 100% transparency - 24091801A

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel


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18 Sep 2024 11:45

Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)

♦️ 🇬🇧 Inflation Rate / CPI - 06:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇪🇺 Inflation Rate / CPI - 09:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 14:30
♦️ 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision - 18:00 ❗️
♦️ 🇺🇸 Fed Press Conference - 18:30 ❗️

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

☀️ General Mills (GIS) 🇺🇸
(...a few more with market cap <$3B)

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner

[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

17 Sep 2024 23:51

✅ 16.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2579.67)
❌ 16.9 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (SL - 21.13 + pot. neg. slippage) 🔄
✅ 16.9 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 215.97 + pot. neg. slippage) 🔄
✅ 16.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2581.13)

3/4 = 75% Success Rate

TODAY :

✅ 17.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 2577.77)
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 19549.90 me / near break-even) 📸
✴️ 17.9 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.11053 🔄
✴️ 17.9 - WMT - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
✅ 17.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL -19538.90) 📸
✅ 17.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 41653.40)
✴️ 17.9 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 2562.13 🔄

4/7 - (3 open positions)

We traded today's difficult market well - we found good entries but not always the best exits - sometimes a bit too greedy as all our positions ended in SL (but at least in SL as we saw some "trend" reversals today). We also found good entries for our index LONGs - in the end we see a negative day for Wall Street, we also saw a trend reversal in gold (you can update your TP). Our EUR/USD position is also in solid profit - I see more short term downside potential (and much more if the Fed only cuts rates by 25bps tomorrow).

Unfortunately, we had to swallow a bitter pill with Intel and I failed to go SHORT again in time when the troubled chip manufacturer was able to gain almost 10% in the meantime - which was an excellent price for a renewed SHORT position. Our WMT was initially well in profit and was then hit by general profit-taking - we should have secured the profits earlier. We will probably look for an exit tomorrow if the general market sentiment remains as cautious as today - which is likely given the uncertainty over the Fed's upcoming rate cut.

The market is fully focused on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points, but in the medium term, what will matter most is what kind of rate guidance the Fed provides. I expect that we are more likely to see a dovish 25 basis points rate cut tomorrow - this means a slow start into the monetary easing phase, but also a clear statement that further rate cuts are on the table in the coming months including a possible rate cut of 50 basis points i necessary (=undesirable weakness in the US labor market).

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17 Sep 2024 21:50

⚡️ RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
(VIP ONLY) ❓ Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► (VIP ONLY) remains very attractive in the medium and long term (also to hold until EOY), we see (VIP ONLY) short term after the recent significant (VIP ONLY)

► Expectations for a rate cut of 50 basis points (VIP ONLY) retail sales data and thus (VIP ONLY) ...

► We are now also (VIP ONLY) towards NYSE closing, which could also lead (VIP ONLY) gold (VIP ONLY) to increase (VIP ONLY) for further (VIP ONLY) ...

► (VIP ONLY) recover above (VIP ONLY) - we (VIP ONLY) here and see a little more (VIP ONLY) in the short term.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.4 - 0.6 (40% - 60%) when trading gold (XAU/USD)

position code / 100% transparency - 24091707A

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel


——-

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

17 Sep 2024 19:36

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* 🔼 Dow Jones (US30)  🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: (VIP ONLY)
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)

► After the Dow Jones reached a new ATH, following strong US retail sales which exceeded expectations, there was some profit taking. There was some selling in New York as traders lowered their expectations for the size of tomorrow's rate cut (as if today's US retail sales would influence tomorrow's Fed decision ...).

►While I think it's more likely that the Fed will “only” cut rates by 25bps and thus disappoint tomorrow (in an immediate reaction), we saw strong economic data today and a market that still largely expects the Fed to strongly support the US economy tomorrow by easing by 50bps (which is ultimately - not even guaranteed - to be a positive signal for the market). We also see tailwinds for cyclically sensitive commodities - also a sign of increased growth expectations.

►We are buying the 300+ point dip in the Dow Jones here (41550 - 41600* range) and expect dip buying to resume soon. We see that the swap markets are nevertheless assuming a 65% probability of a major rate cut.

► In addition, other better-than-expected less important US economic data (tier 3 data) - such as industrial production and manufacturing production - were also stronger than expected.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 3 - 4 (300% - 400%) and trade the Dow Jones (US30)

position code / 100% transparency - 24091706A

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 40+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel


——-

🔤🔤🔤3️⃣0️⃣
📉4️⃣1️⃣5️⃣8️⃣0️⃣📈

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17 Sep 2024 16:10

⚡️ FREE RAPID TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸

❗️ only if you no longer hold a LONG position!*

► I closed my Nasdaq 100 with a slight profit (SL trigger at 19549.90), if you are still in, you can stay LONG. If you didn't pull your SL into profit after the Nasdaq hit 19590 (almost 19600), you shouldn't re-enter here either.

► If your position has already been closed with a slight profit/break even - you can now re-enter below/at 19500* and do so.

► We see a slightly stronger USD (our EUR/USD is well in profit) and higher yields providing some fundamental headwinds for growth stocks - but more importantly, the US consumer should remain robust and we should still see rate cuts. Swap markets currently remain optimistic that we will see a 50-BPs tomorrow.

🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4.5- 6.5 (450% - 650%) when trading the Nasdaq (NAS100)

position code / 100% transparency - 24091705A

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 15+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel


——

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17 Sep 2024 15:03

⚡️ FREE "LIVE" TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
SELL NOW 🔽 EUR/USD

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN SMARTTRADER VIP

► We see the EUR/USD 10 pips lower in reaction to surprisingly strong US retail sales - a mild reaction - as investors continue to refrain from making big bets and instead wait for signs on the size of the Fed's rate cut (which will start cutting rates again tomorrow).

► The US economy, especially the US consumer, remains robust. We are now seeing slightly reduced rate cut expectations. I think it is more likely that the Fed will not try to risk a renewed acceleration in inflation if it sees a sufficiently robust economy that does not need the signal of a quick rate cut.

► We are positioning LONG on the USD and see the USD supported by further signs of continued strong outperformance of the US economy versus the Eurozone economy. We are now positioning SHORT on the EUR/USD (near 1.11300).

position code / 100% transparency - 24091703A

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN SMARTTRADER VIP

⏱ Signal DELAYED by: 30+ (!) minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Receive non-delayed signals in the VIP Channel



———

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[TRIAL] 🇬🇧 SmartTrader™ - Fundamental Trading Signals; Consistently Profitable & 100% Transparent

17 Sep 2024 14:29

🚨 US Retail Sales in 2 Minutes

LIVE TRADING SESSION -> in VIP Channel ⚡️

⚠️ LIVE TRADING ONLY IN SMARTTRADER VIP