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BUY NOW 🔼(VIP ONLY) 🇺🇸
Recommended Entry Range ✅(VIP ONLY)
► We are buying the almost (VIP ONLY)% decline in (VIP ONLY) here – with (VIP ONLY) clearly underperforming here.
► (VIP ONLY) suffered some losses after the (VIP ONLY) in China, adding to concerns about sluggish sales (VIP ONLY) ...
► We are generally seeing cautious sentiment in the market - which is actually (VIP ONLY). I see (VIP ONLY) AI winners in 2025 and as a (VIP ONLY) - even though (VIP ONLY) ...
► Investment bank giant (VIP ONLY) continues to see (VIP ONLY) as strong and resilient, is optimistic about the upcoming (VIP ONLY) to outperform the market in 2025. I agree and expect a good year (VIP ONLY) despite the high valuation (>15% upside for 2025).
🗣️ Tip: (VIP ONLY) ...
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SELL NOW 🔽 DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 4️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅19940 - 19970
► While we of course want to start 2025 on a positive note and are also seeing early solid gains in New York - suggesting a rebound after four red sessions - we are selling the current rebound attempt in Europe.
► We see investors returning to US equities (or moving money from international markets to Wall Street) at the beginning of the year. I expect another strong year for Wall Street, with another very strong AI boost / revenue growth and outperformance by US big tech.
► However, there was not much positive news in the first full trading session: China was deep in the red after poor economic data, and in Europe, the positive start to 2025 was wiped out as investors became cautious again after poor data on the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone and UK, and the poor handover from Asia (especially China). In addition, there are ongoing concerns about a Fed that is slowing its rate cuts, ongoing political instability in Europe, concerns about the lack of fiscal stability, ongoing geopolitical concerns and today's rise in energy prices - particularly natural gas prices.
► Higher energy prices are only a headwind for the DAX - without an energy component in the DAX. We expect resistance at the key 20K mark and are setting our price target ~100 points below the entry price near the session lows.
► We see European equities now benefiting from a weak EUR and GBP, while the USD is strengthening sharply - also due to some safe-haven buying of US bonds. We see signs of a return of risk-off sentiment - particularly in Europe and China.
► While the ongoing weakness in Europe and Asia may boost Wall Street today and the significant gains in New York may also support the recovery attempt in Europe, we expect some profit-taking (also in New York) before today's NYSE opening.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 4 - 6 (400% - 600%) when trading the DAX (GER_40)
position code / 100% transparency - 25010201A
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Amazon triggered our tight SL 🔑 at 224.27 (or 225.27) and thus suffered an overall loss (or close to break-even, depending on the size of your re-entry position). We are now seeing some additional profit-taking (as we expected) – relatively broad profit-taking – especially in growth stocks, as we fear that yields could rise further. We remain out as the Nasdaq suffered now quite significant losses (minus 1.2% / S&P 500 minus 0.8%).
We see little trading volume and no economic data that could significantly change market sentiment today – although we expect stocks to stabilize. We remain optimistic overall for 2025
⏱️ Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 1️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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Asian trading started robustly today. Japanese equities in particular rose, supported by a continued weak JPY that supports the export-oriented Japanese economy. The JPY fell to a five-month low of 158/USD after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided a clear signal on interest rates next month on Wednesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed for a fifth consecutive day (the longest winning streak since July) after performing poorly in the first half of December.
Stocks in China and Hong Kong, as well as in Australia, also rose (currently). South Korea remains shaky with ongoing political unrest in the country.
We also expect solid performance from the markets in Europe and New York today, although trading activity in the two sessions between Christmas and the end of the year will be subdued overall, with little activity.
We also see little movement in commodities. Oil is currently slightly in the red and gold continues to recover - currently back in the range $2,635 - $2,640 - with further significant recovery potential.
SmartTrader, the team and I will be back in full swing on January 2. Until then, enjoy the calm before the storm.
I hope you had a wonderful holiday season 🎄. I have a lot to do as I am using the few days to work on our medium-term investment project and will be moving to Cyprus 🇨🇾. On the side, I'm spending two days in Italy 🇮🇹 to recharge my batteries.
Your Robert ☃️
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 225.27
SL 🔑 @: 230.33
Micron (MU) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 89.92
SL 🔑 @: 87.78
The markets have also moved very much in our favor today. Our Dow Jones position hit the TP - if you are still in it - you can also close it significantly better (near 43300). We are now seeing the delayed Santa rally, as we expected, which came delayed after the market overreacted to the Fed's more hawkish positioning - which is not only absolutely logical (for the Fed to do) but in reality means that the US economy is expected to continue to perform robustly in 2025.
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 43066.90 | or higher
We can extend the TP for our Amazon position a bit, tighten the SL. Our re-entry position is deep in the money (if set). Micron sees some resistance at $90.00 - we set our TP there and expect to close on Friday (in the money).
WFC also performed very well and rose further today (currently up 1.1%). You can of course stay long here - unlike many investors, we expect another good year ahead.
Congratulations - we have made very good profits in the last few days with good decisions. We now see a market that is less sentiment-driven again (with very little activity today, of course).
⏱️ Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 8️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹
✅ 19.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7304.40)
✅ 19.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2619.83 me |TP - 2612.97 ; +re-entry)
✅ 19.12 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 8118.70 )
✅ 19.12 - PYPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 87.49)
✅ 19.12 - AVGO - LONG ↗️ (TP - 225.34 me | clsd 225+)
✅ 19.12 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8121.70 me| or clsd 8122+)
(✅ 19.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (CLSD - 21310.14)*
✅ 19.12 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 42689.70)
✅ 19.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ ( TP - 21283.40 me| 21244.30, 21178.90 or 21300+)
8/8 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate (excl. optional trade)
*optional trade
✅ 20.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (clsd 68.50)
✅ 20.12 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 96002.30)
✅ 20.12 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 98777.30) 📸🔄
✴️ 20.12 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit |or clsd in profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 43066.90 🔄
✴️ 20.12 - MU - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 91.89 🔄
3/5 - (2 open positions)
🔹 TODAY'S TRADES 🔹
✴️ 23.12 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 0.62419 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 0.62556 🔄
✅ 23.12 - AVGO - LONG ↗️ (TP - 231.63 |clsd 231.40-232.00+) 📸
✴️(✅) 23.12 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - in profit / SL opt. in profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 93369.70 (optional) | TP ✅ @: 95248.70
1/3 - (2 open positions)
Congratulations! Super strong profits from two outstanding trades:
Our second (successful) Bitcoin trade from Friday (actually closed over the weekend as planned) and a massive Broadcom trade today - one of the best trades we could have possibly made.
We can easily update our AUD/USD position - locking in higher profits and moving our TP up.
---
Enjoy the holidays ☃️🎄 - I'll keep you updated as usual tomorrow, but there's almost nothing to trade and the markets will be closed.
💎 In case you didn't know, all SmartTrader VIP clients have been granted 10 days of free VIP access so you don't miss out on any VIP days over the holidays. The extension was automatically granted to everyone who had an active VIP membership today.
Thank you for being a part of the SmartTrader Community.
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 💰
TP ✅ @: 95248.70
SL 🔑 @: 93369.70 (optional / or wider)
Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 43066.90
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 43025 - 43090
I actually prefer to close our Dow Jones here soon (or even now).
We have again identified the almost perfect reversal range for Bitcoin - our position is well in profit. You can optionally work with an in-profit SL here (BTC).
Our timing remains remarkable. In just a few trades in the previous session(s), we made huge profits.
Congratulations! Trading and timing at the highest level (even against the market) 👏
———-
Our profits from Friday/today will probably pay for Christmas presents for several years (for most of you). It would be nice to give some of the winnings to people who have little or nothing for Christmas this year ❤️
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BUY NOW 🔼 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 💰
⚠️ HIGH volatility; Increased risk / do not trade large
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 1️⃣2️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅92500 - 93000
► We made two very good Bitcoin trades on Friday, including a very good over-the-weekend Bitcoin trade (closed in the Saturday rally).
► We can now get back into Bitcoin almost $6000/BTC below our triggered TP ✅ 98777.30 📸 (or about 6.5% below Saturday's highs (~$99.5K)
► A stronger USD and higher yields have led to some risk-off trading, but we are seeing sentiment stabilize. Yields are also stabilizing, but remain well above 4.5% (currently 4.56% for the US-10-Y).
► Bitcoin remains very volatile and we are buying the strong profit-taking here, which is generally difficult to time, which is why we are trading a little smaller. We are now finding an entry at / slightly below 93K. Bitcoin has seen solid support in the 91K - 93K range over the last 30 days. From the current level around 93K, it could go down a bit further, but Bitcoin has plenty of recovery potential.
► Analysts see Bitcoin reaching significantly higher ATHs in 2025. Bitcoin reached its ATH last week (Tuesday) at around $108,300 (which is aobut 17% above the current price = 14.5% decline).
🗣️ Tip: You can multiply your trade size by ~ 0.2 - 0.35 (20% - 35%) trading Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - 2/3 trade size
position code / 100% transparency - 24122303A
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 1️⃣2️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Broadcom (AVGO)
CLOSE NOW / SOON ✅ @: 231.40 - 232.00
We close our Broadcom position above $231.50 for a mega profit. While Broadcom has short-term more upside potential we expect $230.00 to remain a key-level for today.
Congratulations!
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———
(my position just hit TP ✅ at 231.63; you can close even higher 231.90 - 232.50)
Please understand that most people work for several weeks/months for the profits that we made with our trades every day in a few hours. Share some of your profits with people in need ❤️
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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
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BUY AFTER NYSE OPENED 🔼 Broadcom (AVGO)
⚠️ volatile; strong opening, first slight PT; 2/3 trade size
Recommended Entry ✅near 225.50
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 3️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
🔹 The Dow Jones (-0.3%) fell slightly in early pre-market trading, losing earlier gains (during early Asian trading), due to higher yields and a very strong USD again at multi-year highs. We set a not-too-wide TP ✅ 43088.90 🔄
🔹 Amazon (0.2%) opens slightly higher, continuing Friday's recovery.
🔹 Micron (0.0%) opens almost unchanged after a turbulent week. We saw a strong recovery at Micron on Friday, which recovered by 3.5%, and found a good entry before Micron rose further at the NYSE close. We remain LONG. Micron has plenty of room to rise further. We set a not-too-tight TP ✅ 91.89.
🔹 Wells Fargo (0.0%) opens little changed (above the key 70.00 mark) after strong (+2.2%) Friday gains. We remain LONG and maintain our TP: ✅ @: 73.63.
► We see reduced trading activity and don't want to be positioned deeper in the market at the end of today's last full session (before Christmas).
► Broadcom remains attractive - especially after the rally on Friday met with strong profit-taking before the market closed. Broadcom is likely to be one of the hottest stocks in 2025 - and I expect even more analysts/investment banks to see a massive additional rally for Broadcom (including PT increases) after the chip giant's mega profit announcements and an even more optimistic revenue forecast. It is very likely that Broadcom will also benefit from Nvidia's rather mixed Q4 performance, as more investors see greater upside potential in Broadcom for 2025 than in Nvidia.
► We expect slight profit taking after NYSE opening and want to find an entry at or slightly below 225.00. We expect Broadcom to test or break through $230.00 again in the near future (possibly today). Broadcom opens at $226.50.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 200 - 220 (20.000% - 22.000%) when trading Broadcom (AVGO) - 2/3 trade size
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 3️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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——-
We once again made the best possible NYSE opening trade (market cap >$30B).
YOU MISSED OUT DUE TO THE DELAYED SIGNAL 🤯
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, December 23
❗️ Global markets cautiously rise after Friday's modest CPI data & last-minute funding bill to avert US government shutdown
► European markets opened cautiously higher on Monday as investors weighed mixed signals from global economic and political developments. Stoxx 600 futures are trading 0.35% higher, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the holiday-shortened trading week. UK Q3 GDP remained flat quarter-on-quarter, signaling stagnation in the British economy, though annual growth stood at 0.9%, highlighting a slow but ongoing recovery. Investor sentiment was dampened by concerns over the potential for global tariffs under President-elect Trump’s administration, which could strain EU-U.S. trade relations and put additional pressure on European exporters.
► US equity futures posted modest gains, with the S&P 50 up around 0.3% (Dow Jones +0.2%). This follows Friday’s rally, where the S&P 500 rose 1.1% after the core PCE inflation data came in weaker than expected, rekindling hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Congress avoided a government shutdown by signing a temporary funding bill, which greatly relieved the markets and focused attention on the economic policy of the new Trump administration. SmartTrader chief analyst Robert Lindner believes that concerns about inflation and a more hawkish Fed stance are greatly exaggerated, as they would imply that the US economy would have to remain very strong in 2025. US Treasury yields were steady after a sharp rise last week, as investors continued to digest the implications of slower inflation and robust economic output. Sentiment remains cautious as markets await Donald Trump's inauguration and possible global tariffs.
► Asian stocks snapped a six-day losing streak, bolstered by Friday’s U.S. market gains and muted inflation data. Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1.16%, supported by strong performance in auto stocks, with Honda gaining 2.1% on merger discussions with Nissan (+1.6%). South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan’s TAIEX rose over 1%, reflecting optimism around easing inflationary pressures in the U.S. and hopes for continued semiconductor growth in Asia. Chinese markets were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.5%, despite Premier Li Qiang’s call for innovation in semiconductor and infrastructure sectors. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rebounded by 0.82%, buoyed by financial and property sectors, while mainland investors increased exposure to Hong Kong equities amid CNY weakness.
► Oil prices steadied after last week's decline, with traders closely monitoring geopolitical risks and the potential impact of Trump’s foreign policy, including threats to reassert U.S. control over the Panama Canal. WTI crude oil traded flat at around $69.5/barrel (-0.1%), as markets balanced geopolitical risks with concerns over global demand. Gold prices rebounded slightly, as the U.S. dollar stabilized and PCE inflation data reduced recent strong USD buying. Gold prices are trading at around $2,625/oz. Silver is up 0.7% trading at $29.70/oz. Bitcoin is trading near Friday's level after hitting a high of $99.5K on Saturday (which also triggered the TP of our second Bitcoin position and earned the community another nice profit with Bitcoin).
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇬🇧 GDP Growth Rate - 07:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇪🇸 GDP Growth Rate - 08:00 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇨🇦 GDP - 13:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index - 13:30
🔸 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 15:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports today
SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹
🗓 November 8 - December 20
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)
*Nov 28 & 29 (Thanksgiving) = 1 trading day
——————————————————————-
📊 5 - Week -Performance: 08.11 - 13.12
(= 25 "full" trading days)
Number of Trades/Signals: 126 (incl. 1 open positions: WFC)
Number of Trades Won: 109
Overall REAL Success Rate = 86.5% 🔼
Dropped from statistics: 3/5 - 60% Success Rate (Nov. 7)
Added to statistics: 6/6 - 100% 🏆 Success Rate (Dec. 13)
——————————————————————
🆕 The last 5 trading days:
✅ 16.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7367.20)
✅ 16.12 - TSLA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 446.89 | or 450+)
✅ 16.12 - BA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 169.49 | or 171+)
✅ 16.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.04811)
✅ 16.12 - MU - LONG ↗️ (SL - 108.98)
5/5 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 17.12 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 20300.30 |or TP - 20313.30, 20300.30, 20293.20)
✅ 17.12 - AUS_200 - SHORT ↘️ (TP-8300.30 |8290-8308.60)
✅ 17.12 - DELL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 118.37)
✅ 17.12 - COIN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 313.13)
✅ 17.12 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 110.43 for me | or TP - 109.69 w/ positive slippage)
✅ 17.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 69.66 me| clsd 69.60-75)
6/6 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
A difficult & chaotic week with a very positive end (for us) - but it needed economic data (PCE) showing that the inflation problem is not as big as investors expect and economists model.
Furthermore, the market still has not understood that the slower rate cuts are primarily the result of a strong US economy and continued robust economic and labor market data. The prospect of slower interest rate cuts is therefore better (!) than a market that urgently needs interest rate cuts (such as China, for example, but also where we see significant weakness in the economy (+ outlook) and in business and consumer activity and sentiment).
Our success rate over the five-week period has increased significantly and is now (again) an outstanding 86.5% - with an average (!) positive movement of over 0.6% (asset value move), which is well above the average for short-term traders, who tend to trade asset movements in the range of 0.1 - 0.4%.
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BUY NOW 🔼 Dow Jones (US30) 🇺🇸
Recommended Entry Range ✅42980 - 43050
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Micron (MU) 🇺🇸
⚠️ Increased Volatility; 2/3 Trade Size
Recommended Entry Range ✅88.85 - 89.25
► We saw exactly the markets that we expected - with the rebound post US PCE data following Fed friendly inflation data - and some profit taking ahead of the Triple Witching hour which saw the Nasdaq lose about 0.5%-points from it's highs. The Dow Jones dipped about 400 points from session highs back to below key-level 43000 (currently at 43050).
We buy this mini-dip here and expect that market can further recover in the days ahead even with limited liquidity. We have seen very high volatility over the past days which will strongly fall in the upcoming sessions.
We also buy Micron - which is trading currently 2.5% near 89.00 after very sharp losses this week following a rather disappointing earnings report. We trade Micron again smaller than usual as we may continue see 2-3% percentage swings. However, despite a rather disappointing outlook, Micron has plenty of revenue growth ahead while being very attractively valued despite a lower than expected revenue forecast. Micron remains an excellent medium/-long-term investment after the sharp decline over the past two sessions.
We stay LONG in Amazon, which rose well above our initial TP and is now at around +0.5% but with plenty of further upside potential after today's underperformance (in comparison to the broader market / Nasdaq 100).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~1.5 - 2.5 (150%-250%) when trading the Dow Jones (US30).
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~360 - 400 (36,000% - 40,000%) when trading Micron (MU) - 2/3 trade size
position code / 100% transparency - 24122004A
position code / 100% transparency - 24122005A (MU)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 3️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 227.69
SL 🔑 @: 222.47
We widen our TP for Amazon as Amazon has plenty of room to rebound. Amazon is up near 0.5% underperforming big tech and the broader market.
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 4️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
———
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Nasdaq (US100) 🇺🇸
TP triggered ✅ @: 21283.40 (for me) | 21244.30, 21178.90 or 21300+
What a rollercoaster ride.
If you are still LONG in the Nasdaq 100, you can still close above ✅ 21315 - but it's best to get out here (or soon 21310 - 21350) because profit taking will probably start soon.
Congratulations – it didn't look good in pre-market trading and now we've made huge profits (including with gold and bitcoin). We continue to see how nervous and sentiment-driven the market currently is and therefore remain cautious ourselves.
⏱️ Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 7️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
———-
DON'T MISS OUT ! ❌❌❌
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🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL AFTER NYSE OPENED 🔽 Nvidia (NVDA) 🇺🇸
⚠️ increased volatility
Recommended entry range ✅ 137.50 - 138.00
Tesla's failure to meet expectations for car deliveries weighs heavily on Tesla (after initially gaining almost 2% in pre-market trading) and has also pushed the Nasdaq 100 down by more than 150 points from the session's highs. We see the selling we expected before the NYSE open. We are SHORT in the DAX - but could have possibly found a better entry point in the over-performing Nasdaq, especially since the Nasdaq 100 was back in the (above) 21300 area where we see resistance for now.
🔹 Wells Fargo (+ 0.7%) opened positively and continues to see buyers in the 70.00 - 71.00 range. If you are still LONG - you can stay LONG. Wells Fargo is also benefiting from the fact that Bank of America sees WFC as a ‘top idea’.
► While we see further short-term correction potential at Tesla - in particular due to the disappointing delivery figures - Tesla is already opening about 4% lower - after initial dip-buying, we can probably find a better entry point. Tesla is still heavily overvalued and, while it offers a lot of reason to look forward to the future, it does not offer the short-term (or even medium-term) revenue potential that would justify the high valuation.
► I generally see more scope for profit taking as Wall Street was once again buoyed by the pre-market earnings of the big tech companies.
► We are selling the strong outperformance of Nvidia and are selling at as close as possible to 138.00. We will probably see further price gains before the profit taking begins.
🗣️ Tip: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 220 - 250 (22,000% - 25,000%) when trading Nvidia (NVDA) - 2/3 trade size.
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📊 SmartTrader Insights: Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Thursday, January 2
❗️ European markets steady despite gas price surge; Tech gains set Wall Street for rebound after 4 days of modest losses
► European markets started the year with modest gains but are now trading flat (Euro Stoxx 600 at -0.2%). Natural gas prices surged to their highest since October 2023. The increase followed the expiration of a Russian-Ukraine transit contract, leaving Europe bracing for winter without key gas flows. Manufacturing data showed divergence among countries: France’s PMI plunged to 41.9, the sharpest contraction since May 2020, reflecting deep industrial challenges. Economists cited political instability and a lack of fiscal discipline as key drags on French industry. In contrast, Spain recorded resilient manufacturing activity, with its PMI rising to 53.3, driven by growth in output and new orders. Spain’s relative independence from Chinese exports and broad energy supply contributed to its outperformance. UK manufacturing data worsened to 47.0 (Dec) down from 48.0 in November and also slowed more than expected (47.3).
► US markets showed signs of recovery following a four-day year-end slump. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, signaling returned optimism among investors. Tech stocks, which drove much of the market's 2023-24 gains due to advances in artificial intelligence, continued to attract investor interest. Analysts noted that the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies could sustain growth in 2025 as AI adoption broadens across sectors. Treasury yields edged higher, reflecting a cautious risk-on tone, while the USD weakened against its G10 peers, with notable declines against the AUD. This is a reversal of the USD strength of recent months, as traders are bracing themselves for a potentially less hawkish Federal Reserve in 2025.
► Asian markets reflected mixed sentiment. China’s SHCOMP fell 2.6%, dragged down by disappointing manufacturing data, with the Caixin PMI slipping to 50.5, missing expectations. Slower output and shrinking foreign orders highlighted the limited impact of Beijing’s stimulus measures. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2.18% amid steep losses across all sectors, reflecting concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions. On a brighter note, India’s SENSEX rose 0.87%, buoyed by gains in auto, tech, and financial services stocks, hitting a two-week high. Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.52%, supported by stronger commodity prices, while Japan remained closed for the holiday.
► Commodities saw gains, with oil prices climbing as U.S. crude inventories fell for the sixth consecutive week. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.4-million-barrel drop, signaling tighter supply as global energy demand stabilizes. WTI crude oil rose to $72.5/barrel (+1.2 %), with oil prices also being boosted by a surge natural gas prices (+2.0 %). Gold also rose above $2,635/oz, supported by a weaker USD and also as traders hedge against possible macroeconomic risks in 2025 and the medium to long-term attractiveness of gold.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇨🇳 Caixin Manufacturing PMI - 01:45 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇪🇸 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 08:15 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇮🇹 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 08:45 (released: 🟢)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 08:50 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 08:55 (released: 🟡)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB Manufacturing PMI - 09:00 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - 09:30 (released: 🔴)
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 13:30
🔸 🇨🇦 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - 14:30
🔸 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - 14:45
🔸 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 16:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports today
SmartTrader™ Analyst Team & Robert Lindner 2️⃣5️⃣🎆
🔰 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🕯
⏱️ Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 2️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Wall Street opens slightly weaker, although the Asian session was positive and Europe gained (Euro Stoxx 600 +0.5%). Even yesterday's mixed but unsurprising data on initial jobless claims had little impact on the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts (for 2025). Wall Street remains in positive territory for the shortened week due to the holidays. The US economy has proven to be incredibly resilient and some investors see little scope for an improvement in the outlook for the US economy from President-elect Donald Trump's policies, including fears that tariffs and tax cuts could lead to a more hawkish Fed. The focus is particularly on yields – the important US 10-year Treasury yields have risen further and are now back near multi-month highs at 4.6%.
🔹 Amazon (- 0.6%) is opening slightly weaker and extended yesterday's losses after the stock rose sharply before Christmas (and posted a solid result on December 24). We can our position (if even possible, as our current tight SL could trigger) - SL 🔑 @: 224.27 // TP ✅ 229.97. ⚠️ outdated - SL already triggered
🔹 Wells Fargo (- 0.25%) opened little changed after posting similar gains yesterday (+ 0.24%). The major banks on Wall Street will not face much headwind in the longer term from concerns about higher interest rates.
Micron (0.0%) already reached our TP ✅ 89.92 yesterday, thus generating a very nice profit for us.
► We see slight losses, but overall a broad red market with most companies in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (about 75 - 83% of all components trading negative). We see losses in both small caps and mega caps - with Broadcom again being the exception, opening about 0.5% higher and extending recent gains and reaching new ATHs.
► Micron opens about 0.9% lower (at $89.00) and could be a good re-entry point. Both Micron and AMD have missed out on the recent AI mega-rally (so far), but are well positioned for significant revenue growth. I also find PayPal very attractive, which opens at $87.00 (down 1%). We could see some mild additional profit-taking initially.
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Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸
Micron (MU) 🇺🇸
Our position in AMZN is overall well in profit (if you made a small re-entry in the 218.50 - 219.50 range / or any re-entry at all). I bought a small position in MU below $85.00, near the low after Micron's crash the previous week. Micron may be one of the best-performing stocks in 2025, and AI will continue to be the number one growth engine in the coming year.
——-
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 💰
TP triggered ✅ @: 95248.70
Our timing / profits with Bitcoin are out of this world. We also closed today's Bitcoin trade extremely well (very good TP) after almost perfectly buying the strong Bitcoin dip of today.
This was our third Bitcoin trade since Friday that we closed with a move of more than 2.2%.
Friday -
✅ 20.12 - Bitcoin 💰 - LONG ↗️ (2.7% movement)
✅ 20.12 - Bitcoin 💰 - LONG ↗️ (2.2% movement)
Monday -
✅ 23.12 - Bitcoin 💰 - LONG ↗️ (2.6% movement)
——-
Our AUD/USD also closed in the SL (for me with strangely positive slippage - thx!)
AUD/USD
SL triggered 🔑 @: 0.62419
This also means that we have finished today / yesterday again with 100% 🏆 success rate. Congratulations!
——-
Congratulations again on the huge profits - we really made big profits with just a few trades today. Please share some of your profits with people in need - if possible. 💝
🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹
🗓 November 11 - December 23
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)
*Nov 28 & 29 (Thanksgiving) = 1 trading day
——————————————————————-
📊 5 - Week -Performance: 11.11 - 16.12
(= 25 "full" trading days)
Number of Trades/Signals: 126 (incl. 1 open positions: WFC)
Number of Trades Won: 111
Overall REAL Success Rate = 88.1% 🔼
Dropped from statistics: 3/5 - 60% Success Rate (Nov. 8)
Added to statistics: 5/5 - 100% 🏆 Success Rate (Dec. 16)
——————————————————————
🆕 The last 5 trading days:
✅ 17.12 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 20300.30 |or TP - 20313.30, 20300.30, 20293.20)
✅ 17.12 - AUS_200 - SHORT ↘️ (TP-8300.30 |8290-8308.60)
✅ 17.12 - DELL - LONG ↗️ (SL - 118.37)
✅ 17.12 - COIN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 313.13)
✅ 17.12 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 110.43 for me | or TP - 109.69 w/ positive slippage)
✅ 17.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 69.66 me| clsd 69.60-75)
6/6 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate
✅ 18.12 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.26852)
✅ 18.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 22058.70)
✴️ 18.12 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 221.19 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 229.89 🔄
❌ 18.12 - MU - LONG ↗️ (SL - 94.70 w/ neg. slippage)
✅ 18.12 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 0.62697| +re-entry - overall in profit)
❌ 18.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 21268.70|+re-entry)
✅ 18.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2620.83|+re-entry)
✅ 18.12 - C - LONG ↗️ (TP - 69.79)
5/8 - (1 open position)
Our success rate moved back above 88% 👍 as a 60% day (3 out of 5 - Nov. 8) was replaced by one of our many 100% 🏆 days (5 out of 5 - Dec. 16).
Otherwise, there is not much that has been updated here. Well Fargo turned back into the green after initial losses and is now rising further in after-hours trading. Amazon ended the day flat with some profit-taking before the close.
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🕯
AUD/USD
TP ✅ @: 0.62598
SL 🔑 @: 0.62407
We are locking in profits with our very well-timed AUD/USD (against the market) and are working with a tight SL, as we are seeing only limited movements here with reduced trading activity. If AUD/USD can break 0.62500 in the short term, we could see another 10-15 pips of gains. The pair is overall (still) oversold.
We have done incredibly well in forex trading in recent weeks, benefiting in particular from the stronger USD and, more recently, from USD overselling.
———
With our FX trades in recent weeks alone, many of you have earned several months' salary. Our performance in forex trading (success rate / average number of pips in profit per trade) in short-term trading is very likely unmatched, even though we don't specialize in forex trading – congratulations!
✅ 14.11 - GBP/CAD - LONG ↗️
✅ 14.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 15.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 18.11 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 18.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 19.11 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 20.11 - GBP/CHF - LONG ↗️
✅ 22.11 - EUR/CHF - SHORT ↘️
✅ 27.11 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 28.11 - EUR/CAD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 03.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
❌ 04.12 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 06.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 12.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 13.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 16.12 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 18.12 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 18.12 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (+Re-entry; overall in profit)
✅✴️ 23.12 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL in Profit)
19/20 = 95% Success Rate
——
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Broadcom (AVGO)
TP triggered ✅ @: 231.63 | or closed 231.40 - 232.00+
Congratulations – Broadcom has risen by almost 3% since our entry price (depending on where you entered and exited - now even more). We also saw the slight profit taking after Broadcom's very good opening that we expected. Broadcom broke through the $230 / Friday's high with “ease”.
If you are still LONG, it's best to close soon / now (range 232.20 - 232.70). We can find a better re-entry point.
Amazon has also gained significantly - currently at +0.8%
--
What an incredible pre-Christmas NYSE opening trade. Many of us have probably made a profit from this trade alone – the one that “pays” for Christmas presents entirely or at least to a large extent. Let us not forget the privileged position we are in and think of those who could use a helping hand. Thank you very much 🎄
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Broadcom (AVGO)
TP ✅ @: 232.19
Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 229.89
SL 🔑 @: 221.19
No other stock gained more in market capitalization today after the opening (first 15 minutes) of the NYSE (despite initial slight profit-taking) than Broadcom. The chip giant easily broke through the $230.00 mark (Friday's high). We are currently seeing typical profit-taking after strong price gains, but expect AVGO to rise above $230.00 again soon. We are not working with a TP that is too far away, as we expect $230.00 to be a key mark today.
We are also widening the SL for our Amazon position, as we generally want to stay LONG, but could see slight profit taking today.
Congratulations - what an outstanding NYSE opening trade.
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🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW🔼 (VIP ONLY)/USD
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 7️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅(VIP ONLY)
► The USD is trading close to its multi-year highs again at the beginning of a holiday-shortened trading week after President Joe Biden signed a government funding bill on Saturday that averts a government shutdown. The bill provides for three months of funding at the current level, with additional disaster relief and agricultural aid. The (provisional) funding bill improves near-term risk sentiment – rather USD headwinds.
► Friday's cooler-than-expected/dovish PCE data helped stocks end a negative week on a positive note for global equities. Global stock markets started the week cautiously positive.
► Asian markets were mostly higher, with China posting a mixed performance due to concerns that trade relations could worsen under Trump. US President-elect Donald Trump also added the 27 countries that make up the European Union to the list of trading partners he is threatening with tariffs on social media. "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas (..) otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!”.
► The prospect of higher US oil (and gas) production and exports, as well as tariffs, have supported the USD today in thin trading.
► We are buying the (VIP ONLY)% dip in (VIP ONLY)/USD back to around(VIP ONLY) – or near (VIP ONLY) even though trading activity will be limited.
► Even though the (VIP ONLY) has taken a more dovish stance recently, (VIP ONLY) is oversold in the short term due to the (VIP ONLY) ...
position code / 100% Transparency - 24122301A
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🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹
✅ 18.12 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.26852)
✅ 18.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 22058.70)
✴️ 18.12 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 222.47 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 229.89 🔄
❌ 18.12 - MU - LONG ↗️ (SL - 94.70 w/ neg. slippage)
✅ 18.12 - AUD/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 0.62697| +re-entry - overall in profit) 🔄📸
❌ 18.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 21268.70|+re-entry)
✅ 18.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2620.83|+re-entry)
✅ 18.12 - C - LONG ↗️ (TP - 69.79)
5/8 - (1 open position)
✅ 19.12 - FRA_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 7304.40)
✅ 19.12 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 2619.83 me |TP - 2612.97 ; +re-entry) 🔄📸
✅ 19.12 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 8118.70 )
✅ 19.12 - PYPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 87.49) 🔄📸
✅ 19.12 - AVGO - LONG ↗️ (TP - 225.34 me | clsd 225+) 🔄📸
✅ 19.12 - GBR_100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8121.70 me| or clsd 8122+)
(✅ 19.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (CLSD - 21310.14)*
✅ 19.12 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 42689.70)
✅ 19.12 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ ( TP - 21283.40 me| 21244.30, 21178.90 or 21300+) 🔄📸
8/8 = 100% 🏆 Success Rate (excl. optional trade)
*optional trade
🔹 TODAY'S TRADES 🔹
✅ 20.12 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (clsd 68.50) 📸
✅ 20.12 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 96002.30) 📸
✴️ 20.12 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 98777.30 🔄 (or a bit wider)
✴️ 20.12 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (open - slightly off-profit)
✴️ 20.12 - MU - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
We closed all (!) of our 8 (+1 optional trade) trades from yesterday in profit - wow 🏆
Today's remarkable profits are mainly due to our very strong trades and/or positioning & good position management from yesterday 👍
This has been a really weird week – for me personally, the profits were somewhat eroded by the heavy losses with Micron (and the late Dow Jones closing), but the decisions we made and the way we traded this very chaotic and heavily falling market were exceptional and ultimately highly profitable in the end - a great week.
Our success rate and asset selection (especially stock picking) were remarkable.
We were hit by the hawkish Fed dot plot and the markets' overreaction – but after that we navigated the market, sentiment, mispricing, underlying fundamentals, etc. extremely well.
We can be very proud (but of course remain humble!) of how we maneuvered our way through this week. It also shows us once again that you should ALWAYS stay calm no matter what happens and not be influenced by panic, big swings and possibly bad decisions.
Again, I am very proud of all of US - we did this together. A wonderful end to an extremely chaotic week! 💫
Your Robert
PS: Wells Fargo also closed very well today (+2.2%) - we remain LONG in BTC and want to close the position deep in profit over the weekend - I'll keep you posted.
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Amazon (AMZN) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 229.89
SL 🔑 @: 222.47
We will give Amazon more room to recover on Monday.
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(NYSE IS CLOSED)
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🔰 FREE RAPID TRADING SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW 🔼 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 🤑
⚠️ HIGH volatility; Increased risk / do not trade large
TP ✅ @: (VIP ONLY)
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 8️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
Recommended Entry Range ✅96400 - 96800
► We made a huge Bitcoin trade today 📸 (almost 3% movement) - but Bitcoin recovered even further and has still plenty of near-term upside potential after three days of sharp declines - Bitcoin is still more than 10% below highs reached on Tuesday.
►We get back (still a bit above our triggered TP) but below 97000 with plenty of gains to make with Bitcoin likely continue to find buyers below key-level 100K.
► Bitcoin is still sharply lower over the past 24h (down 2.5% at ~96700) with investors storming back into equities following the PCE friendly data (which we expected). Although also Bitcoin made a v-shaped recovery - but is still far away from levels in previous sessions.
► We see the rally in stocks for today (from here) limited. Bitcoin may benefit from stocks hitting a ceiling with investors also being a bit concerned about increased volatility ahead of the Triple Witching.
🗣️ Tip: You can multiply your trade size by ~ 0.3 - 0.5 (30% - 50%) trading Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 8️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
⚡️ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
position code / 100% transparency - 24122003A
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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
PayPal (PYPL) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 87.14
TP ✅ @: 87.49 (if not triggered already at 87.33)
Amazon (US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 224.48
PayPal may have just hit your TP (for a big profit) - if not you can widen a bit and set an in-profit SL.
We can slightly widen the TP for our Amazon position.
We now see Wall Street deep green - with the Nasdaq up more than 1.1% - very impressive rally on the Fed friendly PCE-data. Broadcom broke the 226 and moves towards 229 rising more than 4.5% - however, we are happy with our closing price and don't want to overtrade this nervous market here even if it looks very tempting.
⏱️ Signal is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 8️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq (US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 21327.40
OR
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 21310 - 21350
Now we see the rebound that we should have seen after the Fed-friendly US PCE data. This clearly shows how unsettled the market is (and sentiment-driven).
We are widening our TP. Our Nasdaq 100 position(s) are now deep in profit.
PS: Sorry for the slight delay here - the surge has now been extremely impressive and very fast. Congratulations! If your position has already reached the TP, we are still happy if you benefit from the increase. My position has just triggered the TP - 21283.40. If you are still LONG, you can do close even better.
⏱️ Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 7️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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