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US Markets comes in for profit taking post lackluster forecast from Walmart which prompted questions about the outlook of the economy 🙁
🇺🇸 Markets on Thursday
#DowJones -1.01%
#Nasdaq -0.47%
S&P500 -0.43%
Culprit was ‘Dow member Walmart’ -6.5%
👉 Weak guidance overshadowed quarterly earnings that topped estimates.
👉 Co said it expects fiscal-year sales to grow between 3% and 4%
👉 But company’s fiscal 2026 earnings outlook, was below analysts’ expectations
Rub off impact!
👎 Target & Costco each fell about 2%
Retail investor favorite Palantir -5.2%, post 10% decline already seen this week
👉 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told department officials to brace for budget cuts while a new trading plan from CEO Alex Karp drove the stock lower.
Economic Data declared also weighed on the market
🙁 Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ended February 15 vs forecast 215,000 claims for that week
🙁 Philadelphia Fed’s monthly manufacturing index tumbled by 26.2 points - the most in nearly five years - to 18.1 in February from 44.3 in January.
Lower Treasury yields weighed on banking stocks
🏦 Goldman Sachs -4%
🏦 Morgan Stanley -4.5%
Other Asset Classes
🇺🇸 10-year Treasury yield slips to 4.51%
💲 Dollar Index 106.3
🪙 Gold at $2937/ounce
⛽️ Brent Crude at 76.5$/barrel
💸 Bitcoin at 98330$
Asia Economy
🇯🇵 Japan’s inflation rate climbs to a 2-year high of 4% in January & has been above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 34 straight months.
😱 Strengthens the case for rate hikes by the central bank
This week’s headlines are creating quite a buzz. Vedanta's demerger road, bitter pill of tariffs on Indian pharma, and the after-effects of rising gold prices!
Watch Bull's Eye's new episode: https://youtu.be/YvgJiKyQQ2U
हिंदी में समझने के लिए: https://youtu.be/xRCttxW6Q6U
RBI Bulletin – February 2025
Weblink: https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/0BULLETIN1902202511121856672D4108BDFC7006125E1CDE.PDF
The Reserve Bank released the February 2025 issue of its monthly Bulletin. The Bulletin includes bi-monthly monetary policy statement (February 07, 2025), one speech, four articles and current statistics.
I. State of the Economy
The global economy continues to grow at a steady but moderate pace, with divergent outlook across countries amid rapidly evolving political and technological landscapes. Financial markets remain on edge on the slowing pace of disinflation and the potential impact of tariffs. Emerging market economies (EMEs) are witnessing selling pressures from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and currency depreciation engendered by a strong US dollar. In India, high frequency indicators point towards a sequential pick-up in momentum of economic activity during H2:2024-25, which is likely to sustain moving forward. The Union Budget 2025-26 prudently balances fiscal consolidation and growth objectives by continued focus on capex alongside measures to boost household incomes and consumption. Retail inflation moderated to a five-month low in January, mainly due to a sharp decline in vegetable prices.
II. Union Budget 2025-26: An Assessment
By Akash Raj, Harshita Yadav, Kovuri Akash Yadav, Aayushi Khandelwal, Anoop K Suresh, and Samir Ranjan Behera
This article presents an assessment of the Union Budget 2025-26. The Budget reaffirms the Government’s commitment to fiscal discipline while fostering inclusive, long-term economic growth in line with the vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’. With a strategic focus on four key growth engines – agriculture, MSMEs, investment, and exports – the budget strikes a balance between immediate consumption support and long-term structural reforms.
Highlights:
• In 2025-26, the gross fiscal deficit is budgeted to fall to 4.4 per cent of GDP from 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2024-25 (Revised Estimates, RE).
• Revenue expenditure is budgeted to grow by 6.7 per cent in 2025-26 over 2024-25 (RE). The Budget 2025-26 earmarks ₹11.2 lakh crore (3.1 per cent of GDP) for capital expenditure continuing the impetus observed in the previous fiscal years. The effective capital expenditure is budgeted to increase to 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 from 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2024-25 (RE).
• Gross tax revenue is budgeted to increase by 10.8 per cent, with a buoyancy of 1.07, which is broadly in line with its average during 2010-11 to 2018-19.
• For medium term fiscal sustainability, the Union Government has committed to maintain the fiscal deficit at a level that will reduce Union Government’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 50 ±1 per cent by 2030-31.
III. Quality of Public Expenditure and its Socio-economic Impact in India
By Rachit Solanki, Kovuri Akash Yadav, Aayushi Khandelwal, Samir Ranjan Behera, and Atri Mukherjee
Against the backdrop of emphasis on capital expenditure by both the Centre and States, this article examines the evolution of India’s public expenditure trends since liberalisation. It underscores the role of structural reforms, macroeconomic shifts, and policy initiatives in shaping the quality and composition of government expenditure. A quality of public expenditure (QPE) index – encompassing capital outlay, developmental spending, and interest burden indicators – has been constructed to extract the common underlying factor driving these variables by employing a dynamic factor model1 (DFM). The resulting index has been used to empirically examine the association between quality of public spending and socio-economic outcomes.
Highlights:
• India’s public expenditure trajectory since 1991 can be categorised into six distinct phases, shaped by key fiscal policy reforms and macroeconomic shocks.
• The QPE index reveals that higher expenditure quality aligns with stronger economic performance and improved social outcomes.
POSITIONAL CALL (2 MONTHS ) BUY BHEL AT 198,SL-176,TRGT-265
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*News Headlines from Business News Agencies:*
*Business Standard*
📝 ONGC seeks joint venture partners to foray into ethane carrier business
📝 HAL, DIAT forge partnership to boost aerospace research, innovation
📝 Listed realtors report mixed bag Q3 as home sales moderate in top cities
📝 Ex-SBI chairman Khara to head panel to implement amendment to insurance law
📝 HSBC India's profit before tax rises 11.27% to $1.68 billion in 2024
📝 Plum to invest $6 mn over next 2 yrs to enter personal insurance segment
📝 Oyo-owned European holiday home brand 'DanCenter' debuts in India
📝 India-Qatar potential FTA must be approached with caution, says GTRI
📝 Carlyle-backed IT exporter Hexaware valued at $5 bn on market debut day
📝 Ikea expands to Delhi-NCR: Online sales to begin before stores open
📝 Arkade Developers aims for Rs 740 cr from redevelopment project in Mumbai
📝 UK inflation unexpectedly jumps to 3%, reaching a 10-month high in Jan
*Economic Times*
📝 Tata Group to invest Rs 500 crore in Breach Candy Hospital Expansion
📝 UAE’s Invest Bank onboards Veefin Solutions to digitise their SCF operations
📝 India's mobile phone exports surge 50% driven by record iPhone production
📝 Cognizant accuses Infosys of trade secret misappropriation in legal fight
📝 Hyundai India aims to be production hub for exports to emerging markets
📝 ONGC plans foray into ethane carrier business, seeks partner
📝 Matel partners Honda Power Pack Energy for swappable battery solutions for EVs
📝 Meesho launches creator marketplace to boost influencer-driven sales
📝 Facility modification at Halol plant to meet demand, slowdown in Feb output likely: JSW MG Motor
📝 Raymond reports cyber security incident, IT assets affected
📝 JioStar secures 11 major sponsors while Champions Trophy returns after eight years
*Mint*
📝 Indian economy to grow 6.2-6.3% in December quarter of FY25 on capex boost: SBI
📝 Govt to roll out credit rating for rural borrowers in six months
📝 India already exceeding key climate targets, can grow faster using clean energy: UN climate chief
📝 New solar projects to have 2-hour energy storage capacity to ensure stable grid
📝 Indian Electronics Manufacturing Companies Slump In Ongoing Market Rout
📝 HSBC Delays Climate Targets to 2050 as Green Progress Slows
📝 Maxvolt Energy makes a flat debut, lists at IPO price of ₹180 on NSE SME
📝 HSBC Sees $1.8 Billion Cost Over Two Years in Elhedery Revamp
📝 Trump is scrambling global automakers’ reliance on America
📝 Motor insurance claim processing time reduced to 3-4 days with AI integration: Policybazaar
📝 India's power sector needs USD 700 bn investment to achieve net-zero pledge, says Moody's
2 more stocks available for trading in FNO market from March 2025 series
1️⃣ Tata Technologies
2️⃣ IREDA
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INTRADAY CALL UPDATE : BOOK PROFITS IN HAL AT 3425 RECO LONGS GIVEN AT 3358
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S&P 500 closed at a record high as investors shake their headwinds on the global trade and inflation fronts.
🇺🇸 Markets on Tuesday
#DowJones +0.02%
#NASDAQ +0.07%
S&P 500 +0.24%
⛽️Energy was the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, as it rose 1.9%. Halliburton & Valero Energy led the advance!
🙁 Meta Platforms -2.7%, snapped a 20-day winning streak!
Other Asset Classes
⛽️ Brent Crude 75.84/barrel, bounce due to the drone attack on an oil pipeline pumping station in Russia which reduced flows from Kazakhstan. Though talks on Russia & Ukraine ending war continue!
💲 Dollar Index 107.1
🇺🇸 10 year yield 4.55%
🪙 Gold $2,931/ounce
💸 Bitcoin 95200$
Cues to track on Wednesday 👉 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes later this week
Central bank Action 👉 New Zealand slashes rates for a fourth straight time in bid to boost a slowing economy
*FUND FLOWS:*
*FIIs* Net Sell Shares Worth Rs. -3,311.55 Cr. on Feb 20 (Prov)
Gross Fig. : 11,131.94 - 14,443.49 Cr.
*DIIs* Net Buy Shares Worth Rs. 3,907.64 Cr. on Feb 20 (Prov)
Gross Fig. : 13,180.35 - 9,272.71 Cr.
• While Centre’s expenditure quality is more strongly associated with GDP growth, States’ expenditure quality has greater impact on the human development index (HDI).
• State-level data demonstrates a positive correlation between higher QPE scores and improvements in health and education components of the HDI, substantiating that increased developmental and capital spending at the subnational level boosts human development across major States.
IV. Dynamics of Agriculture Supply Chain: Insights from Pan India Survey during Rabi Marketing Season
By Rajib Das, Rishabh Kumar, Monika Sethi, Love Kumar Shandilya, and Alice Sebastian
This article examines the dynamics of agriculture supply chain through a pan-India survey of farmers, traders and retailers. The survey, covering 12 rabi crops such as wheat, rice and maize under cereals, gram and lentil under pulses, rapeseed and mustard under oilseeds; and major fruits and vegetables, was undertaken in select production (the primary producing centres of the chosen commodities) and consumption centres (the major cities) during May-July 2024. Similar surveys, covering major kharif crops, were conducted in 2018 and 2022.
Highlights:
• The survey finds that the average share of farmers in consumer prices ranges from 40 to 67 per cent across various crops, with the wheat producers realising the highest share. On an average, the farmers’ share is found to be lower in the case of perishables (fruits and vegetables) than the non-perishables.
• For the crops which are common across the previous survey rounds, the mark-ups (difference between revenue and total cost as per cent to total cost) of traders and retailers appear to have generally moderated, although it may be noted that the margins could also depend upon the sample coverage and the timing of the surveys. The mark-ups observed at the retail level were generally greater than those of the traders, particularly with regard to perishables. The combined share of traders and retailers in consumer prices is estimated to be more than half for all surveyed fruits and vegetables except tomatoes.
• Use of electronic payments was the highest among traders, followed by retailers and it has increased for all supply chain participants in comparison to the 2018 and 2022 surveys. Cash, however, remained the dominant mode of payment for transactions at mandis.
• The weather forecast and irrigation availability appear to be the most critical factors in the farmers’ decision function regarding rabi sowing. Additionally, majority of the farmers perceived unseasonal rainfall as the primary reason for crop damages, followed by pest attacks and heatwaves.
• Empirical analysis indicates that higher transaction costs (transportation, labour, rent) reduce the retailers’ markups, while higher post-harvest losses in perishables seems to permit the retailers to pass losses onto the consumers.
The views expressed in the Bulletin articles are of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India.
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US markets at close : S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record, despite a continuously cautious Federal Reserve and President Donald Trump’s threat of more tariffs 👏
🇺🇸 Markets on Wednesday
#DowJones +0.16%
#Nasdaq +0.07%
S&P 500 +0.24%
Investors weighed the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting 👉 Minutes indicated Fed officials want to see more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further & there are also concerned about the effect of Trump’s tariffs
Big Movers
👍 Microsoft +1.3%, after the company unveiled its first ever quantum computing chip
👍 Tesla +2%
👍 Analog Devices +10% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results
Palantir Technologies -10%
- Palantir filed notice with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that CEO Alex Karp adopted a trading plan in mid-December allowing him to sell as many as 9.975 million shares through mid-September 2025.
Other Asset Classes
🪙 Gold at $2938/ounce
⛽️ Brent Crude at 76$/barrel
💲 Dollar Index 107.06
🇺🇸 10-year Treasury yield cools to 4.53%
💸 Bitcoin at 96810$
What to track on Thursday in USA?
Economic front 👉 Weekly jobless claims data
Earnings 👉 Walmart & Alibaba
Asian Markets open lower on U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs of about 25% on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports
*Instl. Investors EQUITY Cash Trades PROV. - 19/02/2025 : Rs. CRS. :*
*FIIS : SELL -1,881 (11,570-13,451)*
*DIIS : BUY +1,958 (11,193-9,235)*
Tesla to sell imported EVs in India from April for as low as ₹21 lakh, zeroes In on Mumbai and Delhi locations: Reports
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INTRADAY CALL UPDATE : BOOK PROFITS IN RADICO TARGET HIT 1925 RECO LONGS GIVEN AT 1881
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*News Headlines from Business News Agencies:*
*Business Standard*
📝 Defence budget will go up by 9.5% to Rs 6.81 trn in 2025-26: Secretary
📝 India's fiscal trajectory in line with our expectations: S&P Global Ratings
📝 Over 2.8 million companies registered in India, 65% active: Govt data
📝 Ficci, Assocham demand input tax credit for real estate under CGST
📝 J&J begins critical court hearing over $10 billion baby powder settlement
📝 TVS Motor launches 2025 edition TVS Ronin at Rs 1.35 lakh ex-showroom
📝 Industry body calls for broken rice exports as stocks hit nine times target
📝 NTPC pays additional Rs 2,424 cr interim dividend to shareholders for FY25
📝 Export sector face uncertainty as Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs
📝 At $3.8 trillion, India's top 500 pvt cos value more than the country's GDP
📝 Check Point Software to set up first APAC R&D centre in Bengaluru
📝 Titan targets stake in Damas Jewellery for Rs 4,500 cr; eyes GCC growth
📝 LG Electronics kicks off roadshows to launch $1.5 bn India IPO this year
*Economic Times*
📝 US emerges as 5th top oil seller to India in January, Russia at No.1
📝 India, Qatar exchange agreement on establishment of strategic partnership
📝 Zen Technologies announces investment in Vector Technics, Bhairav Robotics
📝 Realty developer Nimbus group reports Rs 278 crore sale in Q3FY25
📝 India’s pension AUM to grow to Rs 118 trillion by 2030: DSP Pension Fund Managers
📝 India aims to double trade with Qatar to $28 bn in 5 years; exploring signing FTA
📝 Reliance Group to enter RE manufacturing space with solar, battery plants
📝 Xoriant appoints Rohit Kedia as Chief Executive Officer
📝 Ambani's Reliance Consumer Products debuts in UAE with Campa
📝 IREDA arm gets provisional registration as finance company at GIFT City
📝 Indian Overseas Bank launches Aadhaar-based account opening, API banking services
📝 RInfra to enter RE equipment manufacturing space; makes key appointments to lead business
*Mint*
📝 India's insurance market poised to reach $222 bn by 2026, growing at 17% CAGR: Report
📝 India's economic growth pegged at 6.3% in December quarter of FY25: ICRA
📝 Unemployment rate dips to 6.4 pc in December quarter: Survey
📝 OPEC+ to not consider delay of April oil supply hike to global markets
📝 Man Infraconstruction promoters raise stake in the realty company
📝 India Inc’s dull earnings outlook signals tougher times ahead for markets
📝 Singapore Flags Investment Plans From Chips to Energy in Budget
📝 Singapore Buys Only Small Amount of Nvidia Chips, Official Says
📝 Auto Sector Q3 Results: Growth slows, profits hit; Maruti, M&M top picks
📝 UK Pay Growth and Employment Rise in Defiance of Labour Tax Hike
📝 Centre tightens certification criteria for public health facilities in states