/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 20:39

🛢 Crude oil futures separate from reality as Asia physical market buckles

Crude oil futures prices are reflecting a view that the market can successfully navigate the Iran war, while prices for physical cargoes and refined products are signalling an imminent crisis.

Only one of these ​price signals is correct - and it's not what is happening in the paper oil market.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures ended at $91.98 a barrel on Wednesday, ‌up 4.8% from the prior close but still down from the brief spike on March 9 that saw them reach $119.50, the highest in nearly four years.

In the physical market, the premium for a physical cargo of Middle East benchmark Dubai crude over its paper equivalent rose to almost $38 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Paper oil traders seem to believe the rhetoric from U.S. President Donald ​Trump and some in his administration that the campaign against Iran is going well and there is no real threat to oil and product shipments through the ​Strait of Hormuz.

They also appear to believe that the International Energy Agency's release of a record 400 million barrels of crude from stockpiles ⁠will help solve some of the supply disruptions.

However, the current issues can't be solved by comments from political leaders that appear untethered from the reality on the ground, as well as ​a stockpile release that will probably not put enough oil in Asia, where it is needed.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, the situation can only get worse and ​the pace at which it does so will start to accelerate.

The premium for a barrel of cash Dubai crude over paper swaps jumped $4.17 to $37.87 on Wednesday, a level not seen since the ​Russian invasion of Ukraine, an event that also led to fears of oil shortages as Western buyers stopped buying Moscow's crude.

The difference between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the current conflict in Iran is ‌that in ⁠2022, there was no real loss of supply of crude, merely a reshuffling of flows as Russian oil was re-routed to China and India.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/crude-oil-futures-separate-reality-asia-physical-market-buckles-2026-03-12/

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 20:25

🇺🇸📈 This is not getting nearly enough attention:

The 10Y Note yield is now up nearly +35 basis points since the Iran war began on February 28th.

While gas prices are rising, mortgage rates are quickly following.

All while rate cuts in 2026 are being priced-out.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 19:45

🇮🇷⚔️🇮🇱 Israeli media: loud explosion heard in Tel Aviv without the sirens being activated (comes 25 mins after impacts from another Iranian attack)

A warehouse/factory that was hit directly. The fire covers most of the building

🔗 barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry)

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 19:22

✡️⚔️🇮🇷 Ben Shapiro suggests the US and Israel should arm Iran's ethnic minorities and use them as a weapon to foment regime change:

"Remember, Iran is actually less Persian than America is white. There are huge minority populations in Iran..."

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 19:07

🤖 Pentagon Chief AI Officer Cam Stanley demonstrates Palantir's Maven system, which is used in military operations.

🔗 AF Post (@AFpost)

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 18:51

🇮🇷☢️🇮🇱 Times of Israel: "War aimed at preventing Iranian nukes may actually lead to them, ex-IDF expert warns"

Danny Citrinowicz, IDF’s former top Iran researcher, fears regime will try and break out toward a bomb in response to killing of its supreme leader, whose policy was to keep Tehran at threshold

For decades, Khamenei had a policy of developing the ability to build a nuclear weapon, while holding off on actually doing so.

Khamenei’s threshold nuclear strategy was designed to pose a deterrent to US and Israeli attacks, while staying true to his 2005 religious ban on nuclear weapons.

The scheme didn’t save Iran from crippling US sanctions imposed by both Democratic and Republican administrations, but until last year’s 12-Day War, Tehran avoided paying a kinetic price.

Unmoved by the massive damage inflicted on his country’s three main nuclear sites last June, Khamenei directed his negotiators to continue insisting that Iran retain the right to enrich uranium in talks with the US last month.

While the US and Israel are hoping this war strips Iran of the capability to obtain a nuclear weapon — let alone the ability to use it — a former top Iran analyst for the Israel Defense Forces argues that it may have an opposite effect, as the preemptive US-Israeli strikes once and for all proved Khamenei’s threshold strategy ineffective.

So now, Iran is left with two choices: abandon its nuclear program entirely or rush to a bomb.

Danny Citrinowicz, who headed the Iran branch of the Israeli Military Intelligence’s Research and Analysis Division, maintains that a threatened Iran is more likely to choose option two, particularly given that it is now led by Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, who is determined to avenge the deaths of his family members killed along with his father in the war’s opening strike.

“The likelihood of success in toppling the regime is slim, and by taking kinetic action, you’re pushing the Iranians to cross the Rubicon on the nuclear file,” Citrinowicz said in an interview this week with The Times of Israel.

“This is what I’m afraid of — that this war will not prevent Iran from getting a bomb, but actually accelerate its plans to do so,” he added.

Citrinowicz characterized the February negotiations that preceded the war as a “dialogue of the deaf,” with the US convinced that Iran would capitulate completely if pressured enough.

“The problem is that an agreement prevents the Iranians from reaching a bomb, but strengthens the regime, while [a military strike] weakens the regime, but strengthens its [resolve] to reach a bomb,” Citrinowicz said, suggesting that the US effectively chose the latter option.

🔗 https://www.timesofisrael.com/war-aimed-at-preventing-iranian-nukes-may-actually-lead-to-them-ex-idf-expert-warns/

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 18:41

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Satellite images show the USS Gerald R. Ford remains in the northern Red Sea, 88 km off the coast of Saudi Arabia, in a position to protect Israel from potential Houthi missiles.

The Houthis have not fired any missiles or drones on Iran's behalf in this conflict yet. If the USS Gerald R. Ford would get closer to their territory, it is likely they would attack it.

🔗 EGYOSINT

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 18:19

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — NEW: The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit with about 2,200 Marines aboard three U.S. Navy amphibious ships has been ordered to the Middle East, according to ABC News, citing two U.S. officials.

➡️ The 31st MEU, normally based in Japan and operating in the Indo-Pacific, will redeploy to the region to provide additional military capabilities.

➡️ The move gives commanders access to amphibious, air, and land assets if needed.

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 17:33

🇷🇴 Romania's sole fertilizer plant is closing down, laying off 2.500 people in the process

The plant's management is asking the Romanian government to find a solution and save the jobs of its employees and subcontractors or everyone will be laid off and the plant will cease all conservation efforts.

Azomureș spent 70 million Euros in the past year maintaining the existing equipment in the hopes that production of fertilizer would resume in the future.

The outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War caused natural gas prices to spike in Europe and put the plant out business, with production shutting down and restarting several times since February 2022. The war in the Middle East can kill the fertilizer plant definitively.

🔗 https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/economie/companii/concedieri-masive-la-cel-mai-mare-producator-de-ingrasaminte-chimice-din-romania-2-500-de-angajati-vor-fi-trimisi-in-somaj-3675955

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 13:25

🇺🇸🇮🇶⚡️ — Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine on the KC-135 crash:

I also want to address the tragic loss of our KC-135 refueling aircraft yesterday.

The incident occurred over friendly territory in western Iraq while the crew was on a combat mission, and again, was not the result, as CENTCOM has said, was not the result of hostile or friendly fire.

We're still treating this as an active rescue and recovery operation.

As CENTCOM announced this morning, four airmen have been recovered, and the Air Force and U.S. Central Command will provide updates as information becomes available.

Please keep these brave airmen, their families, friends, and units in your thoughts in the coming hours and days.

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 13:06

✈️🛢 Only 3 U.S. Airlines Can Remain Profitable at Current Oil Prices

Wall Street analysts are warning that U.S. airlines could face a painful earnings squeeze as oil prices surge amid the escalating war with Iran. Crude prices jumped over 9% on Thursday as the conflict rattled energy markets and heightened fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Many U.S. carriers largely abandoned fuel hedging in recent years, leaving them far more exposed to sudden price spikes and raising the prospect that only a handful of airlines can remain profitable at current oil prices.

Airlines and oil producers typically rely on hedging strategies to manage extreme oil price volatility. Airlines seek predictable fuel costs, while producers aim to stabilize revenue. Fuel accounts for roughly 15% or more of airline operating expenses, making price swings particularly damaging. By using futures, swaps, or options, carriers can lock in prices and shield themselves from sudden spikes that can quickly erode profitability. Airlines often hedge up to two-thirds of expected fuel consumption about six months in advance, with European carriers generally taking a more aggressive approach.

According to UBS analyst Atul Maheswari, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines are the only U.S. airlines that can generate even "meagre profits" if fuel prices remain at or above $4 a gallon.

🔗 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Only-3-US-Airlines-Can-Remain-Profitable-at-Current-Oil-Prices.html

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 12:54

🇮🇷⚔️🇮🇱 Multiple Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli airspace last night, impacting several places across central and northern Israel.

A building in the mostly Bedouin-Arab town of Zarzir suffered a direct hit by a missile, injuring 70+ people in and around the building, mostly due to glass shards from broken windows.

@CIG_telegram

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 12:34

🇺🇸🛡✡️ Watch the police response to the Temple Israel synagogue shooting in West Bloomfield, Michigan, in which the suspect rammed a vehicle into the synagogue's gates but was killed by local security before he could harm anyone.

📝: ZOG is a theory like gravity is a theory.

@CIG_telegram

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 12:13

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israeli and Western estimates say the number of Iranian missile launchers has remained largely unchanged despite a week of intense airstrikes due to the difficulty of locating small, mobile targets without full aerial control.

📝Patricia Marins: What happened to Iran? Are they out of missiles or launchers?

This is exactly the Iranian plan. They have already shot down between 25 and 30 expensive US and Israeli drones, estimated at $700 million. By doing this, they are gradually reducing surveillance in several areas.

Since there is no air dominance over Iranian airspace, drones are the only surveillance option and a key asset for the US and Israel.

As I’ve been saying, despite being brutally bombarded, Iran is still dictating the game. They are in a favorable strategic position, controlling the strait while markets put pressure on the US.

Concerning UAV losses, CBS reported 11 MQ-9s lost as of March 11th. In the following 48 hours, Iran released footage of an additional 4 units. This brings the total to 15 MQ-9s, alongside 12 to 17 Heron and Hermes models

🔗 AF Post

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 11:58

🇮🇷 — The Iranian President is strolling down the street freely in Tehran on International Jerusalem Day.

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 20:28

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 HIGH-SPEED SURGE: USS Tripoli ARG Sprints for the Middle East

OSINT Update (Mar 12 imagery): Following the announcement that the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group is heading to the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury, visual evidence confirms she wastes no time.

She is already underway, and she is moving fast.

The Fix: Spotted approaching the Bashi Channel (between Taiwan and the Philippines), ~213 km off the southern tip of Taiwan.

The Speed: She just departed White Beach, Okinawa on March 11. Judging by the massive, elongated wake profile captured in this pass, the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) is running at high speed.

🔗 MT Anderson

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 19:47

#Iran / #USA / #Israel / #UAE 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱🇦🇪: Iranian Forces (#IRGC) carried out an attack targeting Al-Dhafra US Base in #AbuDhabi.

IRGC launched at least three what seem to be “Soumar / Hoveyzeh” pattern Surface-To-Surface Cruise Missiles.

https://x.com/i/status/2032523351474733188

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 19:34

🇬🇧🇺🇸🇮🇶 US officials and spies ‘rescued’ from Iraq by the Royal Air Force

At least a dozen American diplomats and intelligence officers have been rescued from Iraq by the RAF after they were stranded, GB News can disclose.

The US State Department staff, contractors and intelligencers had been transported from the US consulate in Irbil to the airport by bus and told to expect extraction.

But it never came. The team were sitting waiting on the tarmac for hours but there was no plan to move them on, according to sources familiar with the matter.

They said the group approached a nearby British military contingent who volunteered to airlift them to Cyprus in an A400M Atlas military transport plane.

The Americans were taken to the British airbase on Cyprus by the Atlas flight, but the debacle did not end there for the American team of diplomats, contractors and spooks.

Once on the British base, the Americans then learned there was still no plan to recover them.

A security source in the Middle East told GB News that the Americans were “livid” at being “abandoned twice.”

The British operation to recover the Americans was conducted as US President Donald Trump accused Sir Keir Starmer and the UK of being “very uncooperative”.

🔗 https://www.gbnews.com/news/us-officials-spies-rescued-iraq-raf

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 19:14

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇹🇼 📝The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is the only permanently forward-deployed MEU and the only quick-response ground unit that could have been realistically deployed to Taiwan in a matter of days in case of air and naval invasion by the PLA.

The 31st MEU is now moving from Butler Marine Base, Okinawa, to the Middle East for an unclear mission.

@CIG_telegram

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 19:01

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The U.S. Department of Justice is offering a 10 million $ reward for anyone capable of giving information that will lead to the successful assassination of key Iranian figures including Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, his deputy, Ali Asghar Hejazi and the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani.

📝: The U.S. continues to treat the leaders of a 93 million strong country as if they are a bunch of criminals, their crime being standing up for their own national interests.

This is a strong sign that diplomacy or reaching out to the U.S. for a ceasefire is suicidal for Iran's existing leaders and that the war will continue until the US is militarily or economically crippled.

🔗 Rewards for Justice

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 18:45

🇺🇸❌🪂 KC-135 aircraft are not equipped with parachutes and do not have ejection seats, which are primarily in fighter aircraft, officials have told ABC News.

Passengers and crew members of KC-135s instead are trained on how to exit the aircraft when it is on land or on water, officials said.

According to a 2008 Air Force profile of the tanker crews, the move to get rid of parachutes was made because the tankers "seldom have mishaps, and the likelihood a KC-135 crew member would ever need to use a parachute is extremely low."

🔗 https://abcnews.com/International/4-dead-after-us-refueling-aircraft-western-iraq/story?id=131031069

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 18:36

🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷 - The US Army has delivered 10,000 Ukrainian developed interceptor drones to the Middle East since the onset of the war in Iran, according to Bloomberg.

The interceptor drones have demonstrated their efficacy against slow moving targets in Ukraine. While they cannot completely neutralize the threat posed by kamikaze drones, they significantly alleviate the air defense load and cut down the use of expensive interceptor missiles.

A variant, the Merops, currently costs $15,000 a unit, less than the estimated cost of a Shahed. A typical air defense missile costs at least $1 million.

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 18:18

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷📝 The deployment of Marines to the Strait of Hormuz suggests the US intends on seizing several Iranian islands in the Strait.

The "easiest" ones to conquer would be Abu Musa (Iran controls it, the UAE lays claim to it), Sirri, Greater and Lesser Faror (Farvor) (Lesser Faror is uninhabited) and Greater and Lesser Tunb. The distance between them and Iran would make it difficult for Iran to supply the garrisons.

Due to the proximity to mainland Iran, amphibious landings on Qeshm and Kish Islands would be more difficult to pull off with just a 5000-man USMC contingent.

Even if CENTCOM manages to conquer all the islands (Qeshm and Kish included) it would be unrealistic to imagine that the IRGC would stop launching Shaheds at any ship crossing the Hormuz.

Conquering the Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz would put any U.S. forces occupying them in a state of siege as they would be under a constant threat of drone attacks from mainland Iran. Supplying the garrisons would be difficult with the aircrafts or ships carrying the supplies becoming a major target for the IRGC to strike.

A Shahed-136 drone has an operational range of ~2.500 km (1.600 miles). Shahed-131 has an operational range of 900 km (559 miles). The Shahed 149 Gaza has a combat range of 2.500 km (1.600 miles),

Amphibious landings on the islands of the Hormuz Strait are pointless and a waste of lives and resources. Even with their loss, Iran will retain the ability and capacity to launch drones at any ship crossing the Hormuz without its consent.

@CIG_telegram

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 17:24

🇸🇰 Slovakia’s Top Fertilizer Plant Cuts Output as Gas Soars

Slovakia’s largest fertilizer producer said it’s curbing ammonia output after natural gas prices surged, in another sign that the Middle East conflict is starting to hit the industry in Europe.

Duslo AS has cut ammonia production to the “technical minimum,” while continuing to produce fertilizer, according to Chief Executive Officer Pavel Hanus. The company has the capacity to produce 1,600 tons of ammonia a day.

“We will take measures depending on how the situation develops and how long this unwanted state of affairs persists,” Hanus said in an email.

🔗 https://archive.ph/UTmOB

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 13:15

🇮🇷⚔️🇹🇷🇺🇸 An Iranian Ballistic Missile reportedly targeted the Incirlik Airbase, in Adana, Turkey.

The U.S. keeps at least 50 tactical nuclear weapons at Incirlik, likely being B61 thermonuclear gravity bombs.

🔗 MenchOsint (@MenchOsint)

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 13:03

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 U.S. war planners significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military strikes while planning for war, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN.

Top officials with the Trump Administration acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to strikes, because they believed that a closure would hurt Iran more than the United States.

🔗 Europa

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 12:44

🇮🇷⚔️🇮🇱 11 Iranian Cluster Missiles Penetrated. One Dropped 70 Bombs Over Central Israel

Last year, only three cluster missiles hit Israel. In the current round, Iran has launched more than 100, carrying far more submunitions ■ Two Israelis were killed

The fireballs that have appeared in Israel's skies over the past 12 days have become the most striking visual symbol of the current war with Iran. Sometimes they are single fragments from an intercepted missile – an engine, a fuel tank, or burning pieces of metal falling to the ground. But when dozens of burning objects fly in an organized, steep trajectory, security officials immediately go on alert: this is a cluster missile carrying dozens of submunitions, designed to cause panic and spread destruction across a wide area.

The missile launched last Thursday night was likely a Khorramshahr model – an Iranian ballistic missile fitted with a warhead that disperses up to 80 bomblets, each containing only a few kilograms of explosives. The interception attempt failed, and the bomblets fell across the greater Tel Aviv area. Seven struck populated locations along a 27-kilometer stretch, from Peduel in the West Bank to Holon on the Mediterranean coast. The rest fell in open areas.

The bomblets are less lethal than a standard missile – as long as the public follows instructions and enters shelters. This week in Yehud provided a painful reminder: despite several precious minutes of early warning, two construction workers who remained in an open area during the siren were struck by cluster munitions and killed.

Two other Israelis who were outside shelters, in Tel Aviv and Or Yehuda, were seriously injured. Footage from the scene showed that one of the wounded did not lie down on the ground – as recommended if a siren catches someone in an open area. Lying flat on the ground would very likely have prevented serious injury.

🔗 https://archive.ph/3lRtE

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 12:23

🇮🇷⚔️🇰🇼🇺🇸 An Iranian drone and missile strike on the Ali Al Salem Airbase, Kuwait, on March 9th or March 10th resulted in the destruction of three Kuwaiti Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets according to Turkish news aggregator, Clash Report, who spoke with an informed source on this matter.

Satellite images released by the IRGC later showed two aircraft shelters and three drone shelters destroyed an a Kuwaiti fighter jet leaking fuel on the tarmac.

🔗 Clash Report

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 12:00

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 KC-135Rs are now operating fully visible over northern Iraq, possibly due to yesterday's "crash".

🔗 MenchOSINT

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

13 March 2026 11:58

🇮🇷 — Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi was seen walking freely among the crowds in Tehran.